QUOCT^ (d) jy le d i n sd dp tudi 45-64 tren tdng d i n sd trde ridp chju nguy eo ddi nghdo d tudi gia B i n than tdng bidn sd dddi cfla t h i n h phan d i m b l o kinh td dupc tfnh nhfl sau: • Bidn sd dfldi cfla thdnh p h i n b l o d i m kinh td nguy eo rfli ro t h i t nghidp dflpc tfnh theo edng thfle UR = ERxBRxRR Trong do: ER=T;y'tevieclam BR = TJ Id ngfldi dflpc hUdng bdo hidm that nghiep tren sd ngudi that nghiep RR =Ty Id binh q u i n tien tuong t u i n dflpc thay the b i n g tidn b l o hiem t h i t nghiep tuong flng Bidn sd dudi eua thdnh p h i n bdo ddm kinh td nguy eo rfli ro dm dau dapc tinh theo cdng thfle ILL = HP/OISP Trong dd: HP =Tdng ehi phf cd n h i n eho chdm sdc sfle khde da t r d phf bdo hidm y td va phf bdi hoan b l o hiem thuan cho ehi phf thudc men DISP =Tdng thu nhdp khd dung (sau thud) • Bidn sd dfldi cfla phan b l o d i m kinh te nguy ca ngheo ddi cfla gia dmh chi ed eha hoac me dapc tinh theo cdng thdc SPP = DIV x SFLIIVl Trong dd: DIV = Ty le ly hdn (ddpc tfnh trdn tdng sd gia dinh) SFLIM = Mat dp ddi ngheo eda cle hd gia dinh ehi cd me ( t / Id nhan vdi khoing cich) • Bien sd dddi eua thdnh p h i n b l o d i m kinh te nguy eo ngheo ddi d tudi g i i dflOe tinh theo cdng thfle OLD = ELIM Trong 66: ELIM = Mat d d ddi ngheo cfla cle hd gia dinh ed chd hd I I ngfldi g i i (ty- Id nhdn vdi k h o i n g cleh) Tdm Igi, trdn eo sd ele phan tfch chi tiet d tren, cd the t h i y viec sd dyng chl so tdng hpp lEWB thay the eho GDP binh q u i n d i u ngfldi tfldng thjnh vflpng kinh te eua mdt qude gia da trd thdnh xu the tat yeu khdch quan tren the gidi, bdi lEWB Iddng day du hon cdc phdong didn eo b i n eua ddi sdng kinh te-xa hdi cfla dat n f l d e / QUOC T ^ tyc kdo dli se tdm cho din sd tidp tuc gilm Spdio ngdpc t h i p tudi sd ting sfle dp Idn ngin sleh cdng v l tic ddng xlu tdl cdc tinh vflc an sinh VI v|y, ehlu Au dang tidn hlnh dda cic gili phdp ning eao tudi nghf hflu vda nhim gilm dp Ide qu^ hdu trf ddng thdl tdng tidn thud cho xa hdi Din s6 My eung cd nhumg xu hddng nhd trdn, song khdng rd ndt bing chiu Au D i n stf trdn 65 tudi se d^tkholng % vdo n i m 2040(13% ndm 2010) v l t^ 1$ stfng phu thudc ting g i n 70% T?i cle nflde phdt Xu hfldng tdng din sd niy ddpc thay vl 19% nhfl hidn Ciu trfle triln, xu hfldng din sd gii kdo dli coi 11 didu kidn thu^n tpi dd phit din sd sd dflpc thay ddi sy chdnh khdng ngdng dd nang ldn hd thdng tridn kinh td - xa hdi cflng nhd Idch tdc dd tdng trfldng tt/nhldn gifla hdu trl, an sinh, y td , kdo theo sfl ning t | n dyng ngudn vdn nhin cic nflde mdi ndi v l phit tridn Odn gta ting chi phf edng ddng thdi tdm tdc Ben c^nti dd, chiu A sd 11 khu n i m 2040, d i n sd An D^ sd dat 1,65 gia tdng cdng thing glQa eae the v^c ddng gdp mdc d i n sd bd sung ty ngddi, din diu vd cddng qude d i n hd Bdn c^nh dd, din stf phu thudc hdng d i u (hem 1,1 ty ngddi) Chiu sd, vuot qua c l Trung Qudc tl 1,36 sd ngiy cing 11 mdt d n trd ddi vdi My Larinh v l CariiDd se dat mdc tdng ty ngudl Braxin v l Nga se ghi nhin d i n sd ho?t ddng Thich thdc cd trfldng din sd thip hon: 145 tridu nhdng xu hadng khdc Braxin thd kim ham sfl phit tridn cfla mpt ngddi Tuy nhien, cung v6i vide tdng sd ed ddn sd ting dat 224 tridu ngadi stf nflde m ^ ntfi dang phit trien, die tn/dng kinh td v l cli thidn hd thdng so vdi 195 tridu ngadi hidn Nga biet la Trung Quoc, nuPc co nguy CO cham sde sde khde tai cle nddc mdi sd ddi mat vdi mdt sfl suy gilm din chdng kien tdc tang trudng kinh ndi v l dang phdt trien lai g l p phli sd gia ting, tfl 143 tridu ngfldi hidn te g i l m dudi 6% vao nam 2040, nhdng thich thde nhd gia hda dan gilm xudng chi edn 130 tridu Mat can b i n g nam, nuT s6, gilm t / Id sinh ngudi dan ngdy ngadi Trai lai My sd tang tfl 315 tridu Trong nhflng nam qua so iupng cdng chu ddng kiem soit ty 1^ ngUdi ten 383 tridu ngUdi vio n i m n d gidi giam dan sd the gidi sinh Didu ndy cd thd nhanh chdng 2040 Chau Au se gilm tfl 541 tridu khodng 100 trieu nguoi, tinh trang llm gilm ty Id stnh tai cdc nddc niy ngfldi xudng edn 537 tridu ngadi dien phd bien tai mpt sd nudc Tai chiu A, giai doan 1995G l i hda d i n stf t i c tftfng t t f ttft chau A nhuTrung Qudc, Pakixtan, An 2005, tdng t^ Id sinh gilm 20% dd c i cic luc dia Dp, Bangladet, Han Qudc Dai Loan phin nio ty gili cho hidn tdpng niy Mdc dfl d i n sd thd gidi dang cd vd vung Capcado (Grudia, Acmenia, Tai da sd cic nddc phit tridn XU hfldng t i n g tdn song d mpt sd Adecbaigian) Chau A la luc dia cung cd t^ Id sinh thip, tic ddng chiu tuc tai dang phli ddi m i t vdi nhat CO luong nam gioi dong (51%) tidu cyc ddn tdc dd ting trddng d i n tinh trang gid hda d i n sd Nguydn hanh vi Ida chpn gidi tinh va ty sd tfl nhidn D i n sd tai chiu tuc niy nhin Id t^ 1$ stnh t h i p d ele nflde le nfl chet cao thieu sU cham sdc cd thd sd gilm 12 tridu d i n tfl phit tridn v l syt glim ty Id sinh d y te Tai Trung Quoc, noi ehfnh sach ddn ndm 2045 T;^ Id sinh chl dat hlu hdt ele nade dang phit tridn mpt nhat da keo theo hau 1,74 trd em/phy nfl, t h i p hon mflc Dp tudi d i n sd gid hon 60 tudi se qud la ngudi dan Ifla chpn de ngddng ddi mdi d i n sd dd I I 2,1 tdng td 1 % hidn tdn 19% vdo trai Theo ihdng ke, Trung Qudc se trd em/phy nfl n i m 2040 Dy b l o giai doan ed gan 40 trieu nam gidi khong kiem D i n stf t i p trung nhidu vd 2005-2040, s6 Idpng nhumg ngadi dflpc ban ddi giai doan 2030 phucmg Nam hon 80 tudi se tdng g l p ba t^i cic Tmh trang lam gia tang cdc Theo cic ehuydn gta dfl blo, ndm nddc dang phdt tridn v l trd thinh hien tupng tpi pham buon ban, bit 2040 d i n sd tai ele nflde mdi ndi v l mdt thich thde hd thdng an sinh coc phu nd Ngoai ra, van de binh dang phit trien se cang ting d cle nddc niy cdn han chd d i n g gPi se la mpt thach thdc Idn Chiu A v l chiu Phi sd tap trung Wd\ dd tudi trung binh tang tfl nhflng thap ky tdi, dac biet ddi vdi khoing 78% d i n sd thd gidi (thay vi 30 tudi nam 1950 Idn 40 tudi, ehlu eae nUPc dang phat trien, nOi thieu 75% hidn nay) Ngdpc tai, dan sd tai Au hidn dang phli ddi mdt vdi mdt vdng nhflng tien bp cai thien cac nddc phit trien se tidp tyc suy bd phin din sd gii di nhanh chdng dieu kien cho phu nd./ gilm d mde 14,5% 30 n i m tdi Ndu ty td sinh t h i p nhd hidn tidp »> 48 S I ^ I N 7/S012 ... cd nhumg xu hddng nhd trdn, song khdng rd ndt bing chiu Au D i n stf trdn 65 tudi se d^tkholng % vdo n i m 2040(13% ndm 2010) v l t^ 1$ stfng phu thudc ting g i n 70% T?i cle nflde phdt Xu hfldng... n 70% T?i cle nflde phdt Xu hfldng tdng din sd niy ddpc thay vl 19% nhfl hidn Ciu trfle triln, xu hfldng din sd gii kdo dli coi 11 didu kidn thu^n tpi dd phit din sd sd dflpc thay ddi sy chdnh... Braxin v l Nga se ghi nhin d i n sd ho?t ddng Thich thdc cd trfldng din sd thip hon: 145 tridu nhdng xu hadng khdc Braxin thd kim ham sfl phit tridn cfla mpt ngddi Tuy nhien, cung v6i vide tdng sd