Một số xu hướng nổi bật của thế giới do đại dịch COVID 19 và những tác động đối với việt nam trong thời gian tới

THLTC TIJN - KINH NGHieiW ^ MOT SdXU Hl/dNG NOI BAT CUA THE GI6I DO DAI DICH COVID-19 VA NHUfNG TAC DONG DOI Vdi VIET NAM TRONG THdl GIAN T | • PGS, TSKH TRAN NGUYEN TUVfeN Hoi dong Ly lug.n Trung uang • Torn tdt: Dich binh COVID-19 khdi phdt tU Trung Quoc (thdng 12-2019) den da lan rdng cdc quoc gia va trd thdnh dai dich nguy hiem, tdc dpng sau rpng tdi tdt cd cdc Unh vUc kinh te, chinh tri, xd hpi, y ti, qud trinh todn cdu hda doi vdi sUphdt trien todn the gidi hiin vd thdi gian tdi Theo long ThUky Lien Hdp quoc Antonio Guterres, tdc dpng cua dai dich COVID-19 Id thdch thiic ldn nhdt md the gidi phdi ddi mat ki tti sau Chien tranh the gidi ldn thUhai Bdi viet tap trungphdn tich, ddnhgid vd dUhdo mpt sSxu hudng noi bat cua tinh hinh the gidi qua dai dich COVID-19 vd nhiing tdc dpng doi vdi muc tieu phdt trien nhanh vd ben vUng cua Viit Nam thdi gian tdi • Tiikhda: Dai dich COVID-19, JMuc tieuphdt trien nhanh vd ben vUng VietNam M^t sh xu hinhig n6i b3t cda th^ gidl qua dai dich COVID-19 Tdc dpng ciia dai dich COVID-19 ddi vdi tiie gidi theo Tdng thu ky Lien Hgp qudc Antonio Guterres hien la thach thiic ldn nhat ma the gidi phai ddi mat ke tir sau ChignttanhThe gidi thii II Dai dieh diln ttong bdi eanh thg gidi dang phdi ddi mat vdi nhidu khd khdn thdch thiic, bat dn Ldn ddu tidn, cde nudc tren thd gidi phai dp dyng cdc bien phap chua timg ed nhu phong tda, gidn cdch xd hOi, ddng ciia bien gidi, tam dvmg nhigu boat dOng dich vu nhu hdng khdng, du lieh Kinh tg thg gidi bl tde dpng hgt siic nghidm trpng gidn doan cde boat dpng kmh tg, lam dut gay chudi sdn xudt va cung ling Dai dich ed thg dan ddn mdt cudc suy thodi kinh tg tdi te nhat ttong lich sii hien dai Khiing hoang kinh te Iam cho khung hodng xd hdi themttamttpng,su bat binh ddng xd hpi, phan hda giau ngheo, mdu thuan chinh tri gia tang tai nhidu nudc Tien trinh toan cau hda dang gdp them nhieu khd khan ttd ngai Canh tranh chien luge giiia cdc nudc ldn, nhat la quan he Trung - My didn cang gay gdt, phiic tap Chu nghia dan tdc, ehii nghia ddn tiiy, chii nghia cudng quyen, chii nghia bao hp, ehu nghia thuc dyng cd xu hudng phat tridn ddn ddn su suy LyLUANCHfNHTR!-So10/2020 ^ THl/CTIJN - KINH NGHIEM giam vai ttd cua nhidu the chg da phuong An Tai My, ca quan nghidn ciiu kuih te qudc gia nmh phi tmyen thdng cdngttdthdnh van My cho bigt, nen kmh te nudc da kdt thiic dg cap bdch ddi hdi phai cd su hop tdc giua cdc giai doan tdng trudng dai nhdt ttong Uch sii vd qude gia roi vao suy thoai ttong thdng 2, anh hudng Cd the khdi qudt mdt sd xu hudng ndi bat ciia ciia dai dich COVID-19 Ngn kinh tgsd the gidi thd gidi dai dich COVID-19 nhu sau: dy bdo se gidm 8% GDP ttong ndm Kinh ti thi gidi suy tboiiv^dur^trudv: nguy Tai Lien minh chau Au, biic tranh kinh tg ca khung hoingn^Bm trgng, ddng thdi vdixu cung xudt hien mdt loat khd khan dieh hudnggia tSngbitdn cbinh tri -^hdi benh diln bien nghiem ttpng d tat ca cdc ngn Do dich COVID-19, kmh te todn edu sau kinh te ehu ehdt d chau lyc Ngn kinh tg Eurothang dau ndm 2020 dupe nhan dinh da budc zone GDP dd gidm 3,8% ttong quy I nam 2020 vdo mpt cudc suy thodi tdi te hon so vdi cudc ttong san xuat kinh doanh dmh tte la miic khiing hodng tdi chmh 2008 - 2009 Trong bdo giam Slit ldn nhdt kg tii nam 1995 GDP ciia 19 eao cdng bd 24-6-2020, Quy Tidn te qudc nudc vien Eurozone udc giam hon 10% te (IMF) dd bdo dOng dai dich COVID-19 da tdc ttong nam ddng dgn tdt ca mpi khu vue dia ly trgn toan Tai Trung Qudc, dich benh du dd dugc kigm cau, khien GDP cua the gidi thap ban, giam sodt song tdc dgng nghiem ttpng vi kinh tg da 4,9% so vdi ndm 2019, thdp hon rat nhigu so vdi bdc Id rd hon Kmh tg Trung Qudc suy gidm 6,8% miic -1,7% ciia eude khung hoang tai ehinh ttong quy I nam 2020, dupe du bdo chi tdng 1,3% ndm 2008; dai dich COVID-19 da cudn ttdi ttong quy II nam 2020 nhieu kha ndng se gidm 12.000 ty USD cua cdi trdn thd gidi Td chiic tdc dp tang trudng tir 6,9% nam 2019 roi xudng Hgp tac va Phat trign kmh te (OECD) cdn du cdn 1% ndm Dich bdnh bung phdt bdo ngu COVID-19 biing phat Ian tiiu 2, GDP ttong hdi eanh Tnmg Qudc ehiu tdc ddng ciia toan cau cd the giam -7,6%'" chignttanhthuang mai vdi My, bdt 6n vl chinh Kinh tg thg gidi theo du bdo se khdi phyc tri, xd hpi (d Hdng Kdng) chdm, keo ddi va khdng ddng deu d cdc khu Tai Nhdt Ban, dudi tac ddng eiia dai dich vuc bai suy thoai kinh tg diln ttong bdi canh COVID-19, kinh te Nhat Ban da lan dautienroi nhilu nhdn td gdy khd khdn bat dn eung tdc vao suy thodi ke tir ndm 2015, tang trudng am hai dgng nhu canh tranh chien luge, canh ttanh quy lien tiep; tdt ca cdc yeu td tir tieu dimg tir thuang mai giiia cdc nude ldn gia tang, bien nhdn, chitiduvdn va xudt khau ddu ghi nhan su dgng gia dau md qudc td, tdc ddng eiia bien ddi giam Slit hdu, nudc bidn dang, cac dau tau kinh tg Dai dieh COVID-19 ciing tdc dgng ndng nl nhu nhdm cac nudc G7, G20 deu gap khd den kmh tg ede nude /^EAN, IMF du bdo tdng khdn Nhuvay, kha ndng kinh te thg gidi phyc tnrdng GDP ciia ede nudc ASEAN sg giam 0,6% hdi theo hinh ehii V la khd cd thg xay ra, nhieu ttong ndm 2020 khd ndng chi cd thg phuc hdi theo hinh chii U, Theo bdo cdo ddnh gid sabd ciia Td chiie Lao tiic la tir hi di len, ca phuang an ciing ddng qude tg (ILO): cude khung hoang kmh td vd khdng dl dang, bdi cde try cdt kinh te thg gidi lao ddng dieh COVID-19 gay cd the lam deu gdp khd khdn tang them 25 trieu ngudi that n ^ e p uen toan LV LUAN CHtNH TR! - So 10/2020 cdu, so vdi sd lupng thdt nghidp la 188 trieu ttong Cudc Cach mang Cdng nghiep 4.0 phdt trign nam 2019'^' khd manh, ede nude chiittpnghon ddu tu, thuc Dgi dich dd gay nhung hdu qud nang ng day, ling dung cae edng nghe phii hgp thich iing lam phiic tap thgm cac vdn dg ehinh tri - xa hdi vdi mdi tnrdng xa hdi, giamtiepxiic vd gidm sdt, eiia tiing qudc gia cung nhu nhirng vdn de d quan ly xd hdi Viee thue hien chmh phii dien ni, thuang mai dign tu, lam viec true tuydn tai nhd, phamvi todn edu 5ir chu^n dich /dn cda chudi cung Ong hgp true tuydn tir xa, khdm ehiia benh tii xa; edng nghe 5G, SG, cdng nghe tu ddng hda, tri tue todn ciu Tnrdc dai dich, xu hudng dich chuyen chuoi nhan tao, edng nghe nano da ed budc phat tiidn cung ling theo hudng gidm bdt su Id thudc vdo nhay vpt Cdeh mang khoa hoc cdng nghe dang Trung Qudc da xuat hien tac ddng ciia chidn lam thay ddi thd gidi vg mpi phuong dien, cac ttanh thuong m^, chu nghia dan tdc ndi Idn va nudc cung sg day manh cdc bien phdp edng quan hg xau di giiia My vd Tnmg Qudc Dai dich nghd nhdm h ^ che nguy co thach thiie vg an COVID-19 bung phat thiic ddy cdc nudc phdt ninh mang, an ninh phi tmyen thdng trign, digu chinh manh hon vide dieh chuydn cde Xu hudng tieu dung, thuong mai vd xu thg chudi cung ung khdi Trung Qude, ddng thdi phdt triln se thay ddi Xudt hien cdc nganh nghd ndng cao ndng lue tu chii doi vdi cae mat hang kmh doanh trye tuyen mdi dya tten kmh tg sd, thigt ygu, cd tinh chign lupe eao vd ehu trpng theo nguyen tdc tir xa, han chetidpxue hon ddn viec khai thac tdi da thi trudng ndi dia Thay dSinh$n thdc vi quin tri qudcffa Sdp tdi, cac qudc gia setimcdch gidm thieu su Thuc tiln thiic day cac nudc nhdn thiic lai vg phu thuOc vao mdt thi trudng, ldm thay ddi quan vai trd cua nha nudc vd mdi quan he eua nha he thuang mai todn cdu nudc vdi thi trudng vd xa hdi nhdm bao dam kha Diy nhanh hinh thdnh vi cdch tiip can mdi nang xii Iy hieu qua eae cugc khung hoang Nhan thiie vg gia tri, muctieuva phuang thiic vi toin ciu hda Tign trinh toan cdu hda dd cd xu hudng ehirng phdt tridn, dap iing nhu cdu thye te cua lai, phai ddi mat vdi nhieu thdch thiic, dac biet ngudi, giam thieu su phy thudc tir ben ngoai la sy gia tdng eua ehu nghia dan tde, chu nghia ttong eac linh vue thiet yeu; mdi quan he cdng don phuong, xu hudng bao hd, canhttanhnudc tu; mdi quan he giiia quyen tu cd nhan vd lgi ldn Trong bdi eanh mdi, eac nude dieu chinh Ich cdng ddng, bao dam cdc quyen chmh dang eachtigpcan mdi ddi vditidntrinh toan cau hda eiia cd nhdn vdi lgi ich cdng ddng, xd hdi, Theo vdi cdc bien phap hdi nhap nhdm ban ehe nil ro, dd, siic khde cdng ddng dupe ddt len tnrdc, eao su thude ldn giiia eac ndn kinh tg han quyen tu ca nhdn Vdn dg bidn gidi va chii quygn se dupe ehii ttpng Diy nhanh dinh hinh l^i md hinh quin tri honttongquan h§ kinh td, ciing nhu vdn dg bao toin ciu v^ siic khde cpng ddng Trong nhiing nam qua, eac dinh chd qudc te Trong bdi canh mdi, todn cau hda khdng bi cdo chii chdt da khdng phdt huy hieu qua vai ttd chung md van la xu thd khdeh quan ttong digu quan tri toan cdu mdu thudn sau sdc giiia cdc kien mdi cdn cd nhiing ludt choi mdi phii hop nudc ldn cling nhu sy bat cap, han chg ciia Thdc