Sinh ke cua ngiTo^i dan sau thu hoi dat tai di/ an Khu Do thi Viet Sinh An Binh, huyen Ba Tri, tfnh Ben Tre LA THANH CHIEN' DigP THANH TClNG'* Tom m Trong bdi vii't ndy, tdc gid sd dung phuang phdp sai biit kip (Difference in different - DID) kdt h(fp phuang phdp hSi quy da Men OLS di ludng tdc ddng cda thu hoi dat ddi vdi thu nhdp ciia ngudi ddn thuoc du dn Khu thi Viet Sinh An Binh, huyen Ba Tri tinh Ben Tre Ket qud nghiin cdu chi rang, thu hoi dat co dnh hudng din mdc sdng cua ngUdi bi thu hoi ddi thdng qua viic lam tdng chi tiiu ddi sdng cda ho; nhien, khdng cd bdng chdng cho thdy thu hSi ddi tdc ddng de'n thu nhdp ciia ho Td do, nghien cdu dd de xudt mot sdgai y chinh sdch cho chinh quyen dia phuang dede nhdng gidi phdp lich cue cho nhi^g ho ddn bi thu hoi dd't Ttf khoa: sai biit kip, nguSn luc sinh ke, khu dd thi Viet Sinh An Binh, huyen Ba Tri Summary Using the difference in different approach combined with the multivariate regression method, this study examines the impact of land acquysilion to the income of the people having lived in Viet Sinh An Binh Urban area, Ba Tri District, Ben Tre Province Research results indicate that land acquysilion has impacted on the standard of their living due to the increased spending in their lives; however, there is no evidence that land acquysilion has impacted on household income Therefore, the study has proposed some suggestions about policies for local authorities to propose positive solutions for households Keywords: difference in difference, livelihood resources, Viet Sinh An Binh Urban area Ba Tri I district —^% GIOI THIEU Tai dtf an Khu thi Viet Sinh An Binh, huyen Ba Tri, nhieu hd dan sau bj thu hdi da't, da chuyen ddi sang nganh nghe khdc, nhtfng eOng ra't nhieu hd phai doi mat vdi ma't viec lam Vide thu hdi dat khdng chi lam eac hp ndng dan ma't di ttf lieu san xua't dac biet quan la da't dai, m^ lam mat di ngudn cung ca'p thtfc pham, thu nhap eua hd gia dinh, gay stf xao iron xa hdi Khdng da't san xua'l ndng nghiep, vdi trinh dd ed han, quen lao ddng chan lay, ngtfdi ndng dan phai tim moi each xoay xd vdi eupc sdng mdi Chinh vi vay, viec danh gia, so sanh dung thtfc trang irifdc vd sau thu hoi dH't dd tim nguyen nhan la rS't quan trpng dd'i vdi sinh ke' cua cac hd tai Khu dd thi CO SCf LY THUYET Cho dd'n nay, da cd nhieu de tai nghien etfu de cap den nhffng va'n de ly luan va thtfc lidn lidn quan den sinh ke' cua ngtfdi dan sau thu hdi da't d nhffng gdc dd va giai doan khdc nhau, Chang han, nghidn ciJu eua Nguydn Thj Khanh Hoa (2012) da nhan dang cdc yd'u id': ngtfdi phu thudc, hpe va'n va nghe nghidp eua lao dpng chinh ed tac ddng Idn dd'n thay ddi sinh kd' sau tai dinh etf va cbi nhtfng khd khan kinh le - xa hdi gap phai Nghidn etfu cua Nguydn Thj Thuan An (2012) nhan tha'y stf bat cSp qua trinh chuyen ddi viec lam cho ngtfdi cd da't bi ibu bdi, thie'u stf phdi hdp ve quy hoach, ke hoach vdi va'n de dao tao nghe! giai , '• TS , Trirong Dai hoc Tra Vinh I Email dLtung@tvu,edu,vn Ngay nhan liai: 19/12/2016: Ngav phdn bien- 10/03/2017: Ngdy duvet ddng: 19/03/2017 Economy and Forecast Rev lew ^ •• BANG 1: PHtfdMG PHAP DID "-;3!; RVam 2013 Nh6m tham gia Nhdm doi chiJog K P.+P, :Jr.1i •-•\- :• ! m, N3m 201^fli JChacpi^H P + P, P + P, + Pi + P, Khdc biet khSc bi$t p, p,+p, p, ISguon' Mhom tac gia tong h^p va dieu chfnh theo Phan Thi MCf 2012 quydt vide 1dm cho ngtfdi dSn, chtfa gan vide chuydn dich cd cau da't dai vdi cd ca'u lao ddng Ngudn Itfc tai chinh va ngudn life vat chd't cua cae hd ddn gia tdng, nhtfhg ehi mang tinh tam thdi, bdi vi ngudn life eon ngtfdi, ngudn Irfc xa hoi, ngudn life ttf nhien chi mtfc han chd', ndn vide tri ngudn Itfe tai chinh va nguon life vat chat mang tinh rui ro cao va phu thudc nhieu vao stf thay ddi che dp chinh sdch h6 trp ciia chinh quydn va sif thay ddi nOi Itfc cua ngtfdi dan Pham Anh Linh (2015) cung khang dinh, trinh dd hpc vCn ciia lao dpng chinh cd vai trd rat quan trpng Cu the Id so ndm di hpc cang nhieu, thi se co co hdi vide lam dn dinh vdi mtfc thu nhap td't hdn rat nhieu Nhffng hp gia dinh cd so' ngtfdi phu thudc cdng Idn, thi ddi sdng se khd khan hdn, khd nang chi tidu gidm vd thu nhdp cung se gidm Ngtfpe lai, cac hd gia dinh khdng co hoac cd il ngtfdi phu thupc thi sif thay ddi sinh ke' se theo chieu htfdng dn dinh va td't hdn PHUONG PHAP NGHIEN CLTU _ Trong nghien ctfu nay, de phdn tich vd ddnh gia cdc yd^u td tdc ddng dd'n sinh ke' cua hp sau bi thu hdi dd't, tdc gia stf^dung stf kidn bi thu hdi da't nhtf mdt bid'n chinh sdch De dp dung dtfpc phtfdng phdp ndy can phai cd sd lieu bang, ttfc la sd lieu vtfa phan anh thdng tin theo thdi gian, vtfa phdn dnh thdng tin cheo eiia nhdm hd tham gia va nhdm hp dd'i chtfng Tuy nhien, sinh ke' ciia hp khdng ehi phu thupc vao chinh sdch thu hoi da't de trien khai dtf an xay dtfng Khu dd thi Viet Sinh An Binh, md cdn phu thudc vao nhieu yd'u to' khdc, nhtf: tudi ehtj hp; quy md hp; vien gia dinh la cdng chtfc, vien ehtfc; vd'n vat cha't; tinh dan chii, cdng bdng irongjhu hdi dd't Vi vay, ddnh gia tdc ddng de'n thu nhap cua hd sau thu hdi da't se Id chinh xdc hdn nd'u dtfa tiidm cdc bid'n vdo lam bie'n kiem sodt Dd lam dtfOc dieu nay, nghien ctfu ke't hop gitfa phtfdng phap DID va phtfdng phap hdi quy da bie'n OLS Trong dd, phifdng phap DID difa tren so sanh giffa dd'i ttfdng tham gia va khong tham gia trtfde va sau can thiep Md hinh kinh te' Itfdng dtfdc dtfa nhtf sau' Y, = p„ + P,T + P^D + p, D*T + p^Z„ + f, Trong do, Y, la chi lieu phan anh thu nhap vd chi tidu binh quan dau ngtfdi ciia hp i lai thdi diem l; T = 1: Hd khao sal nam 2016 T = 0: Hp khao sat nam 2013, D = 1: Hd khao sat ihupc nhdm tham gia; 58 D = 0: H6 khSo sdt thupc nhdm ddi chtfng; Z,: Id cdc bid'n kiem sodt, bao gom nhdrn bien phan dnh dac didm tuoi chu hd, quy md hd Theo phtfdng phdp DID, thifc hien chinh sach thu hdi dat, thi ca hai nhdm hp tham gia vd nhdm ho dd'i chtfng deu chiu stf tdc dpng bdi cdc yd'u to' thay ddi tdi san sinh ke, ttf 66 se dSn de'n thay ddi vd mat thu nhdp vd chi tidu, nhtfng mdi nhdm cd stf thay ddi khdng giong va sif so sdnh khdc bidt giffa hai nhdm chinh la stf khdc biet khdc bidt (Bang 1) Trong nghidn cdXi ndy, dff lidu sd ca'p dtfde thu thdp tff vide td chtfc khdo sdt bang bang hdi phong vd'n trffc tidjp cdc hp gia dinh bi thu hdi dd't va khdng bi thu hdi ddft doc theo dtf dn Khu dd thi Viet Sinh An Binh Dd phtfdng phdp DID cd y nghia tfdc Itfdng, hai nhdm hd phdi ed dac diem ttfdng ttf nhau, nghia Id nd'u khdng cd dtf an xay dtfng Khu dd thi Viet Sinh An Binh, thi thu nhdp vd chi tidu eiia ca hai nhdm thay ddi ttfdng l\X tff nam 2013 dd'n ndm 2016 Ngodi ra, de phii hdp vdi didu kidn nghidn ctfu vd ngudn life kinh phi vd thdi gian, ddng thdi thuan tien cdng tdc thu thdp dff lidu, nghien ctfu ndy stf dung ham Rand phan mem Microsoft Excel de chpn ngdu nhidn 100 so 148 hd bi thu hdi da't Sau do, 100 hp khdng bi thu hdi da't, nhufng d Idn can vdi cac hd bi thu hdi da't dtfdc Itfa chpn lam nhdm dd'i chtfng Do hau hd't ngtfdi dan nhan tien den bil nam 2013, ndn de cd ed set so sanh thu nhap ciia ngtfdi dan trtfde va sau bi thu hdi da't, dff lidu se dtfpc khao sal d bai thdi did'm khac la nam 2013 vd nam 2016 KET QUA NGHIEN CLTU Mo hinh OLS vdi thu nhqp Trtfde bd't, tdc gid tid'n hanh hdi quy md'i quan hd gitfa thu nhap hd vdi cdc bie'n: thdi gian; nhdm hp; ttfdng tac giffa thdi gian va nhdm hd theo md hinh hdi quy Ke't qua in thd'ng ke d md binh bdi quy (Bang 2) cho tha'y, vide thu hdi da't khdng tac ddng de'n Ihu nhdp hd Thay vao dd, nhffng thay ddi ve thdi gian tae ddng dat y nghTa thdng kd dot vdi thu nhap ciia hd Kie'm dinh T-Tesl cung cho Iha'y, khong cd stf khdc biet ve thu nhap giffa hai nhdm hp tham gia vd dd'i chtfng Kinh le'vj iJirJMi, nhtftig cd stf khdc bidt vd thu nhdp giffa hai thdi didm nam 2013 vd nam 2016 Ngodi thu hdi ^ t cdn cd nhidu bien khdc tdc ddng dd'n thu nhdp hd Chinh vi v^y, md hinh hdi quy 2, tdc gia dtfa thdm cdc big'n vao md hinh Id: tudi chii hd; quy mo hd; ndu cd ngtfdi gia (£nh Id cdng chffc, vidn chtfc; v6n v|t chat; nd'u cd ddn ch0, cdng bang thu hdi a^t; chu hp Id cdng chtfc, vidn chtfc nha ntfdc; sd ndm di hoc trung binh cfia hp (BSng 2) Ket qud md hinh hdi quy cho thdy, viec thu hdi d^t vin khdng c6 tdc ddng ddn thu nh|p hp Song, cac bien l^i cd tdc dpng ddn thu nh$p hd/ndm dat mtfc J nghia vdi sai bidt th^ng ke d mtfc 10%, 5% va 1% Didu cd thd dtfdc hieu Id: didu ki$n cdc ydu td khdc khdng ddi, neu tudi chu hp tang tudi, thi thu nhdp ho tang 447 ngdn ddng/nam; hp cd thdm ngtfdi cd vide lam, thi thu nhap hd tdng 5.354 ngdn ddng/nam; ndu KOed thdm ngtfdi Id cdng chtfc, vidn ehtfc, thi thu nhap ho tang 38.531 ngdn ddng/ndm; vdn vdt chdt cua hp tang 1%, ihi thu nhSp hO tang 26,03%; ndu cd ddn chd, cdng bang thu hdi dd't, thi thu nhdp hd tang 25.615 ngdn ddng; chii hd Id cdng chtfc, vidn chtfc nhd ntfdc, thi thu nhdp hd tdng 17.997 ngdn ddng/ndm; sd' ndm di hpe trung binh cua hd tdng them nam, thi thu nhap hp tdng 3.277 ngdn ddng/nam Tff dd cho thdy, tudi chii hp cang cao, cdng cd nhidu kinh nghidm hoat dOng san xuSt, kinh doanh; hd cd nhidu lao ddng cd vide Idm, thi thu nhdp hd tang Idn; chii hd Id cdng ehtfc, vidn chtfc nha ntfdc, hd cd ngtfdi gia dinh Id cdng chffc, vidn chtfc c6 thu nhap dn dinh va ngdy cang tang tham nidn cdng tdc; vd'n vdt cha't hd cdng Idn, thi hd khdng phai mua sam v|t dung thid't bi sinh hoat gia dinh vd tdp trung ngudn vdn d^u ttf vdo san xud't, kinh doanh; sd nam di hpc cua hp cdng nhieu, thi se cd xu htfdng thay ddi thu nhdp theo chieu htfdng td't hdn Qua md hinh boi quy cho thd'y, viec thu hdi dd't khdng anh htfdng den thu nhdp ciia hd so sdnh giffa hai nhdm hO tham gia vd nhdm hp dd'i chtfng Tuy nhien, thu nhap hd cd stf thay ddi dat mtfc y nghia theo thdi gian vd anh htfdng bdi cdc ye'u id: tudi chii hd; quy md hd; ndu c6 ngtfdi gia dinh Id cdng chtfc, vidn chtfc; vd'n vat chd't; ne'u cd ddn chii Economy and Foiecast Review t economy aiic"i^iecast Se^isw BANG 2: n6 HlNH OLS VCil THO NHAP ^WP;?«"fi!rbi6i doTi»p""^Hf" Hdi quy TtM gian 17.414,95" Nhom hg 5.959,159 -7.944,995 -e.424,945 - 21,947,72" Tli^ gian * nhom h$ USi quy 12.641,41" 447,2038™ Ta6i chi h6 Quy mo hO 5.354,115" N^u c6 ngirM gia fflnh la Cong chljc, viSn Chile 3.8531,04"0,2603"' V6n vgt cha't 25.615,55"' N^u c6 dan chii, c6ng bang thu h6i dSt 17.997,4' Chii ho 1^ cong chdc, vien chdc nhd nude 3.277,352'" S^nSm di hoc tiung binh ciia h$ 366 366 Prob>F 0,0495 0,0000 R' 0,0214 0,3899 R^ dieu chinh 0,0133 0,3727 Number of obs Ngudn: Ket qua khao sat Ghichu: * **vd ***dgimiic;} nghia vdi saibi^lthd'ng Id dmiic 10%, 5%v&l% cdng bang thu hdi dd't; chii hd Id cdng chffc, vidn chtfc nha ntfdc; sd ndm di hpc trung binh ciia hd Mo hinh OLS vdi chi tiiu Tdc gia tien hanh hdi quy mdi quan he giffa chi tieu ciia hd vdi cdc bien: thdi gian; nhdm hd; ttfdng tdc giffa nhdm hd vd thdi gian theo md hinh hdi quy Kdt qud cho thdy, vide thu hdi dd't khdng ed tdc dpng ddn tdng ehi tidu hd (Bdng 3) Khi dtfa thdm cdc bid'n kidm sodt khac, nhtf: tudi chii hd; quy md hp; nd'u cd ngtfdi gia dinh la cdng chtfc, vien chtfc; vd'n vdt cha't; ndu cd ddn ehii, cdng b^ng thu hdi dat, thi ket qua md hinh hdi quy cho th^y, cdc bid'n ndy deu cd tdc ddng den thu nhdp hd/nam dat mtfc y nghia vdi sai bidt thdng kd d mffc l6%,5%val% Tie'n hdnh kiem dinh Wald eho thay, md hinh dat mtfc ^ nghia vdi sai biet thdng kd mffc 1% vd R^ dieu chinh = 30,63 Md hinh cho bidt, nhdm hd bi thu hdi dd't gidm tdng ehi tidu dat mtfc y nghia vdi sai bidt thd'ng kd d mtfc % so vdi nhdm hd khdng bi thu hdi ddt Dieu ndy dtfpc giai thich la bi thu hdi da't, cdc hp nhan dtfdc mdt khoan tien bdi thtfdng, nen hd tdng chi tidu cho mua sam tai san, thidt bi vdt dung gia dinh, chi tidu cho gido due, cham sdc stfe khde, diu ttf san xud't Ben canh dd, md hinh hdi quy cung eho thd'y, dieu kidn cac ydu td khac khdng doi, ne'u tudi chii hd tang thi tdng ehi tieu tdng; nd'u quy md hd tdng thi tdng ehi tieu hd tdng; nd'u hd c6 ngtfdi gia dinh Id cdng chtfc, vidn chtfc thi thu nhdp hd tang vd tdng chi tieu hd cung tang; vdn vat chd't ciia hd tang, long chi tieu cua hp tdng hp chi tidu nhidu cho viec mua sam; nd'u cd ddn chii, cdng bang thu hdi da't thi 59 J BAMG 3: MO HIMH OLS VCfl CHI TIEU ^mmm ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ B f n B e n l & c Up Hdi quy Thcli gian 8.556,725" 5.540,318' Nhom 4.593,971 -1.298,263 Nhom hO * tbiti gian 4.990,351 - 5.304,246 Tug] chii h6 246,5964- Quy mo ho 5.961,923*" Ne'u cfi ngiTdi gia dinh Ik c6ng chtfc, vien chiJc 11.899,89"' 0,2038'" Von vat chat 16.845,88'" N^u c6 dSn chii, cflng bang thu hoi dat Number of obs 366 366 Prob >F 0,0000 0,0000 R' 0,0633 0,3215 R^ dieu chinh 0,0556 0.3063 Mguon, Ket qua khao sat * vd *** dat miic y nghia vdi; d bi$t thong ke d miic 10%, 5% vd 1% thu nhdp hd se tang vd tdng chi tieu ciia hd ciing lang (Bang 3) MOT SO DE XUAT Kd't qua nghien effu cho tha'y, co sff khac bidt ve mtfc tdng cbi tieu sau thu hdi da't ciia nhdm hp bi thu hdi dd't so vdi nhdm hd khdng bi thu hdi dd't Ve thu nhap hp, cd stf khac biet giffa nam 2013 vd nam 2016, nhtfng khdng cd stf khac bidt giffa hai nhdm hp tham gia vd dd'i chtfng, dieu ndy xud't phat ttf nguyen nhan, nhtf: thdng tin ve thu nhdp hp ngtfdi dan ngai cung ca'p, thu nhap tff ndng nghidp thtfdng khdng dn liinh va Id thupc vao yd'u to'thdi lie't, san Itfdng, gia ea _ Ben canh dd, mpl so'yd'u td'ed kha nang anh htfdng den stf thay ddi ddi song eiia hp ddn sau bi thu hoi da't dieu kien cdc ye'u id khdc khdng ddi, cu the: hp cd trinh dp giao due trung binh cang eao, thi thu nhdp hd vd tdng chi tieu hp cang cao; nhtfng hd cd sd ngtfdi phu thude cang Idn, thi ddi sdng se khd khan hOn, kha nang ehi tieu giam va thu nhdp eung se giam Ngtfpe lai, cdc hd gia dinh khdng cd, hoac cd it ngtfdi phu thu^c, thi sff thay ddi sinh ke' se theo chidu hffdng on dinh vd td't hdn Cdn cff vao kd't ludn vd nhffng phdt hidn cua nghien ctfu nhtf da ndu tren, nhdm tdc gia dd xua't nhiing ham J' chinh sdch, nham dn dinh smh kd cua hp sau thu hdi dd't, nhtf sau: Thd nhdt, can cd sif ddng bp vd nhd't qudn cdng tdc ehi dao thtfc hidn chinh sdch thu hdi dd't, dam bdo sxt ddng bd gidi quyd't giffa thu hdi dat vdi vide lam, didu kien sd'ng ciia ngtfdi dan cd dd't ndng nghidp bi thu hdi Vd td chtfc thtfc hien, can huy dpng va c6 stf phd'i hop ddng bd giffa cdc cd quan chtfc nang Q-ong thu hdi dd't, giai quyd't vide lam, dn dinh thu nhdp vd didu kidn sdng eho ngtfdi dan Thd hai, trinh dd hpe vd'n ed vai trd ndng cao thu nhdp hd dan Khi trinh dp hpe van eao, ngtfdi dan cd kha nang tham khao sdch bdo, hpe cdch 1dm kinh te^qua bao, ddi, dd dang tap hud'n chuydn mdn, hd eiang nhanh chdng tie'p thu vd vgn dung hieu qua phtfdng thtfc 1dm kinh le' hdn Do do, chinh quyen dja phtfdng can chu trpng ndng cao trinh dd hpc vd'n eua ngtfdi ddn Thd ba, da dang hda vide lam eung Id mdt cdch de cai thien thu nhdp hd Chinh quyen dia phtfdng cdn phdt trien cdc Idng nghd, cae ngdnh thii cdng nghidp de tao thdm vide lam cho hd luc nhdn rdi Mpt van de can dac bidt quan tdm Id mtie dich stf dung tidn bdi thtfdng Chinh quyen dia phtfdng thdng qua cdc hidp hdi, dodn the de td chtfc nhtfng cudc tpa dam, hoac idng ghep tuydn truyen dinh htfdng cho hp sff dung tien bdi thtfdng nen l|p^ trung vdo muc tidu sinh ldi lau dai de dn dinh cudc sd'ng.• TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Nguydn Thi Thuan An (2012) Ddnh gid dnh hudng cua viec thu lioi dd't, gidi phdng mdt bdng tdi sinh ke ciia ngudi ddn tai dudn xdy dung khu dd tht mdi qudn Hdi An tlidnh phd Hdi Phdng, Ludn van thac sT,_Trtfdng Dai hoc Khoa hoe Ttf nhidn, Dai hoc Qud'c gia Ha Ndi Nguyen Thi Khanh Hoa (2012) Sinh kd cua ngudi ddn sau tdi dinh cU trudng hap nghiin cdu:chung cU Khang Gia, qudn Gd Vdp Thdnh phd Ho Chi Minh, Ludn van thac sT, Trtfdng Dai hoc Kinh td Thdnh phd Hd Chi Minh Pham Atih Linh (2015) Sinh ke cua ngudi ddn «/H thu lidi dd't, trudng hap nghien cdu: du dn cdu vd luven trdnh Cha Ldch tren qudc Id 57, huyen Cha Ldch tinh Ben Tre, Luan van thac sT Trtfdng Dai hpc Kinh le Thanh phd Ho Chi Minh 4, Phan Thj Nff (2012) Danh gia tdc dong cua tin dung dd'i vdi giam ngheo d ndng thdn Viet Nam Tap chi khoa Inn Dai hoc Hue, 72B(3) pp.215-224 60 ... sd ca'p dtfde thu thdp tff vide td chtfc khdo sdt bang bang hdi phong vd'n trffc tidjp cdc hp gia dinh bi thu hdi dd't va khdng bi thu hdi ddft doc theo dtf dn Khu dd thi Viet Sinh An Binh Dd phtfdng... thdi gian, ddng thdi thuan tien cdng tdc thu thdp dff lidu, nghien ctfu ndy stf dung ham Rand phan mem Microsoft Excel de chpn ngdu nhidn 100 so 148 hd bi thu hdi da't Sau do, 100 hp khdng bi thu. .. Idn can vdi cac hd bi thu hdi da't dtfdc Itfa chpn lam nhdm dd'i chtfng Do hau hd't ngtfdi dan nhan tien den bil nam 2013, ndn de cd ed set so sanh thu nhap ciia ngtfdi dan trtfde va sau bi thu