Cac nhan to tac dong den kha nang c6 viec lam d Viet Nam TRAN TH! MAI LINH- D THANH PHCIC" Tdmtdt Viic lam cd vai tro quan trong ddi sdng xa hoi, la van di cot loi va xuyin sudt cdc hoat dgng kinh te chi phdi loan bo moi hoat dong cua cd nhdn vd xd hoi Giai quyet viec lam Id mot nhitng mue tiiu quan cua nudc ta hien Chinh vl vay, Nhd nudc, cdc ca quan chiic ndng, cdc tochiic cdng nhungudi lao dong rat can nhOng thong tin chinh xdc vd day du vi thf trudng lao dong Viic xdc dinh cdc nhdn tdtdc dong den khd ndng cd viec Idm se gdp phan quan trong viec dinh hudng tao viec tam mot each cd hieu qud Bdi vie't s^ dung mo hinh logistic diddnh gid tdc dong ciia cdc nhdn tdde'n khd ndng c6 viec Idm ciia ngUdi lao dong d Viet Nam Tiif khoa: viec Idm, tdc dong, Viet Nam, thi trudng lao dong Summary Work has an important role in social life, is a core and throughout matter of economic activities that govern all individual and social activities Job creation is current one of our country's important goals Therefore, the State, mvolved agencies, organizations and workers desperately need accurate and detailed information on the labor market The identification of factors affecting employability will play an important role in job creation This paper uses logistic model to assess the impact of factors on the employability of workers in Vietnam Keywords: employment, impact, Vietnam, labor market Gldl THIEU Vide lam ludn la van de cd tinh thdi sif khdng chi dd'i vdi Viet Nam, md cdn dd'i vdi ta't ca cdc nifdc tren the' gidi Vl vay, giai quye't viec lam la mot nhffng mue tieu quan cua nffdc ta hien Dd'i lu'dng de giai quye't viec lam la ngifdi lao ddng - mot lu'c lUdng chie'm ty le rat Idn vd ddng vai trd quan trong xa hdi Trong giai doan hien nay, nffdc ta tie'p tuc day manh cdng cude ddi mdi, phdt huy ndi life de cdng nghiep hoa, hien dai hoa da't nffdc Hdn bao gid het Dang, Nha nffdc, cac cd quan chffc nang, cac td chffc chinh phu va phi Chinh phu nffdc, quoc te', ciing nhff ban than ngffdi lao ddng rat can nhffng thdng tin kip thdi, chinh xdc va day du ve thi trffdng lao ddng Viec xdc dinh cac nhan td' anh hffdng den kha nang cd viec 1dm se gdp phan quan trpng viec dinh hffdng tao viec 1dm mdt cdch cd hieu qua, cung cd'p cac thdng tin giiip cho ngffdi lao ddng cd cd hdi, kha nang tim kiem viec 1dm mdt cdch nhanh chdng PHl/ONG PHAP NGHIEN CLOJ Mdtasd'li^u Trong bai viet nay, nhdm tac gia sff dung so' lieu Bao cao dieu tra lao ddng vide lam ndm 2018 cua Tong cue Thd'ng kd Bao cao cung ca'p thdng tin lao ddng va viec lam; mdt sd' chi tieu chu ye'u ve tha't nghiep va thieu viec lam giai doan 2015-2018 dp tudi lao ddng hien dang sinh song tai Viet Nam Bdo cdo cung cung cap cac thdng tin v^ lao ddng vd vice lam cho ngffdi sff dung lao ddng; so lieu ve sd'ngffdi tham gia life Iffdng lao dong, khdng tham gia lu'c Iffdng lao ddng, cung nhff tinh dffdc ty le life Iffdng lao ddng du viec, thie'u vi?c, ty le that nghiep va ty le thdi gian sff dung lao dong d khu vffc thi, ndng thdn Npi dung cua cudc dilu tra lao ddng viec lam ndm 2018 ra't phong phii, cung ca'p nhieu tieu thilc lien quan den ngffdi lao ddng, dd Id: tuoi, gidi tinh, trinh dp hpc va'n, tinh trang hdn nhan, tinh trang viec lam, tien cdng - tien Iffdng hoac thu nhdp blnh quan va tinh hinh sff dung thdi gian lao ddng (Bdi vii'i sH dung cdch viet so thap phdn theo chudn qudc te) M6 ta bie'n s6' Trong md hinh logistic, cdc xac suat p dffdc xdc dinh bdi cdng thrfc: •, ", Trifdng Dgi hpc Kinh te va Quan trj kinh doanh - Dai hoc Thai Nguyen /igflV nmn bid 19/05/2020: Ngdx phdn bi?n: 24/5/2020 Ngay ei ddng • 29/5/2020 BAMG 1: MO HINH LOGISTIC UdC nr0NG THIJC NGHIEM CAC NHAN TO ANH HCTdNG DEN KHA NANG CO VIEC LAM CUA NGtfOl TRONG DO Ta6l LAO DONG STT Giai thfch bigh ^ Bie'n gidi thicli Coeficent Sti].Error z-Statistic Prob He so C Tudi X, 0.032915 0.000898 36.65 000 Gidi tinh X, -0.081364 0.033408 -2.44 0015 Hon nhan Xj -0.887520 0.043947 -20.20 0.000 Dan toe x^ -1.324080 0.042542 -31.12 0.000 Khu vtfc X, -0.646206 0.039043 -16.55 0.000 SiJc khoe x^ -0.374516 0.060031 -6.24 0.000 Trinh hijc van X, ^72 1.397518 0.046222 30.23 0.000 ^71 1.241865 0.054628 22.73 0.000 0.000 THCS THPT 10 THCN, TCN 11 2.01232 0.076272 26.38 CD CDN x„ x„ 2.762144 0.151856 18.19 0.000 12 Dai hoc •^76 2.797672 086928 32.18 0.000 13 Sau dai hoc x„ 3.645787 0.465787 7.83 0.000 Mguon: Ket qua nghien cufu c Trong ilo: X = (1, X^,, X^, •'^J^* Dung phffdng phap ffdc Iffdng hdp ly td'i da d^ ffdc Iffdng /i Sau ffdc Iffdng ke't qua dffdc p, nhdm tdc gia ffdc Iffdng xac sua'tp = P(Y = •'exp(Xfi) P(Y= 1\X) -h exp(Xfi) Trong mo Mnh nay, nhdm tac gia khdng nghien ciiU anh hffdng trffc tiep cija bie'n doc lap X dd'i vdi Y ma xem xet anh hffdng cua X^ den xdc sua't Y nhan gia tri bang hay ky vong cua Y Qua dd, xac dinh xac suat de ngffdi thff i mau cd viec lam Tren cd sd sd' lieu, nghien cffu xay dffng dffdc md hinh ddnh gia xdc sua't cd viec lam cua ngffdi lao ddng thff i life Iffdng lao ddng theo tidu chuan: PI"" = 777^^-^^xrr^A^^^^^^^^AJ Trong tieu chu^n nay, thi Pi la xdc sua't de' ngffdi thff i Iffc Iffdng lao ddng cd viec lam Cdc he sd'^,, p^ , p^ chffa bie't can ffdc Iffdng, cac nhan td'X,, X, X la cdc bie'n doc lap tffdng ffng vdi cdc nhan td'dnh hffdng dd'n kha ndng cd viec lam ciia ngffdi thff i Tff cd sd nghidn cffu ket qua Bdo cdo dieu tra lao ddng viec Idm 2018, thu dffdc md hinh logistic eo dang: -.Ln\ \l-p) do: p^=.E(Y=l/X) X+u (1) (2) Md hlnh xac dinh dffdc xdc suat ;7^kha nang cd viec lam cua ngffdi thff i dffdi tde ddng anh hffdng cOa cdc nhdn td' tham gia md hinh, p^ la xdc sua't de bie'n Y nhdn gid tri (tffe la ngffdi thff i cd viec lam) Cdc bie'n dffa vao md hinh gom cd: Bii'n phu thuoc dua vdo md hlnh la bii'n rdi rac Y _\1 neu ngUdi cd viic lam ' \0 neu ngUdi khdng cd viec lam Cdc bie'n doc lap duac chgn dUa vdo md hinh la: l.X, dd tudi cua ngffdi thff i _ 11 neu ngUdi thd i la nam 2.x ~ XOne'u ngUdi thd i la nd _ i I neu ngUdi thd i dd kit hdn ~ [0 neu ngUdi thd i chua ki't hdn _ 11 neu ngUdi thd i Id ngUdi kinh ~ [0 neu ngUdi thd i td dan toe khdc _ 11 ni'u ngudi thd i cu tru d khu vuc thi 5.x ~ 10 ni'u ngudi thd i cU trii d khu vuc ndng thdn _ \ ni'u ngudi thd i cd dieu tri ndi tru 6.x, ~ XOni'u ngudi thd i khdng cd dieu tri noi tru 7.x, ni'u neu neu neu ni'u neu ngudi thd i khdng cd bang ngUdi thd i cd trmh hgc ngUdi thU i cd trinh hgc ngudi thd i cd trinh hgc ngudi thd i cd trinh hgc ngUdi thd i cd trinh hgc cdp van van van van van THCS THPT THCN, TCN cao dang dai hgc ni'u ngudi thii i cd trinh hgc van sau dai hgc BANG 2: XAC SUAT CO VIEC LAI>1 CUA NGlfCII TRONG DO TUOI LAO D^NG STT Bi