2020. MYANMAR TRONG CHÍNH SÁCH ĐỐI NGOẠI CỦA TRUNG QUỐC... (NC Dong Bac A, 01-2020)

LICH sir-VAN HOA MYANMAR TRONG CHINH SACH DOI NGOAI CUA TRUNG QUOC von CAC Nirirc LANG GIENG NHUNG N A M DAU THE KY XXI NGUYEN TUiN BlNH' HOANS THI MINH HOA" Tom tat: TO- sau Chien tranh Lanh den ddu the ky XXI, chinh sdch ddi ngoai ciia Trung Qudc duoc giai lanh dao nude ndy dinh hudng theo ba ndi dung chit yiu: da dang hda cdc mdi quan he ngoai giao, giir vai trd tich cue han cdng ddng qudc te vd tri quan he Idng gieng tdt dep v&i cdc nude xung quanh Trong dd, nude Idng gieng Myanmar ngdy cdng ddng vai trd chien luac quan trong chinh sdch ngoai giao cua Trung Qudc Do vay, Trung Qudc ludn quan tdm den vi tri dia chien luac ciia Myanmar vd dieu chinh chinh sdch ddi ngoai vai nucrc lang gieng ndy nhdm gia tdng dnh hudng ve chinh tri, kinh te vd an ninh qudn sir Bdi viet tap trung phdn tich tdm quan cua Myanmar chinh sdch "ngoai giao lang gieng " ciia Trung Qudc vd dua mat sd nhdn xet, ddnh gid ve viee trien khai chinh sdch cita Trung Qudc vai nude ndy nhirng ndm ddu the kyXXI Tir khoa: Myanmar, Trung Quoc, Ngoai giao lang gieng Myanmar chinh sach "ngoai giao lang gieng" ciia Trung Quoc Ngay tir sau Chien tranh Lanh ket thuc, Trung Quae da dieu chinh chinh saeh ngoai giao vcri cae cucmg quoc va cai thien quan he vai eae nudre lang gieng xung quanh M6i quan tam hang dau eua Trung Qu6e lue la tri va cung eo moi trucmg qu6c te thuan lgi de hau thuan cho chinh sach cai each, mg cira va "bon hien dai hoa"' ddt nuoc Do do, chiln luge ngoai giao eua Trung Qu6c dugc hinh tu bon true • TS Trudng Dai hoc Su pham, Dai hoc Hug " PGS TS Truong Dai hoc Duy Tan Da Nang ' B6n hien dai hda la nhung muc tigu ma Trung Qudc theo dudi cac ITnh vuc ndng nghigp cdng nghigp qudc phdng va khoa hoc cdng nghe nham bign Trung Qudc trd mdt cudng qudc hien dai NGHIEN cdru DONG BflC fl SO 1(227) 1-2020 CO ban: ngoai giao lang gieng, ngoai giao nuoc Idn, ngoai giao khu vue va ngoai giao da phuong De thieh ung vdi tinh hinh quoc ti mdi, tu nhimg nam dau the ky XXI, Trung Quoe da trien khai chien luge theo cac hucmg: Bae hgp, Tay tien, hoa nhap phia Nam, on dinh phia Dong, nham tao moi trucmg an ninh on dinh xung quanh dat nucrc Trong ehinh sach vol eae nucrc lang giing, nham gop phan giup cong cugc cai each md cira, hien dai hoa dat nude dien tien thuan lgi va tang cucmg sir hieu biet, tin tudng cua cae nude xung quanh doi vol Trung Quoe, gop phan vao sir tri va phat triin cac ITnh vue hgp tac khu vuc, Trung Qu6c chu trucmg "thdn thien vai lang gieng 49 Nghien cAu khoa hpc Idm ban vdi Idng giing" va dae biet neu len tu tudng "'Idng gieng hda thudn, Idng gieng binh yen, Idng gieng gidu cd"- (muc lan an lan phu lan) Phuong cham eiia Trung Qudc la "eiing phat trien, cimg phdn vinh" va "hgp tae eiing thang" cac mil quan he kinh te Trung Quoc ciing tang cucmg giiii quyit tranh chap vdi eac nude lang giing, kl ca vl bien gicri, lanh thl Ngoai ra, Trung Qudc eon ma rong phat trien quan he sang cac Hnh vue khae nhu quan sy va an ninh, dae biet coi trgng su dung "sire manh mim" Trung Quoc da chii dgng neu sang kien va thuc diy cac khudn kho hgp tac vdi ASEAN, dae biet la cac sang kien "mgt true, hai eanh"' Trong do, Myanmar lit mgt dia diem cd tam quan trgng chien luge cua Trung Quoe tai khu vuc Dong Nam A va Chau A - Thai Binh Duang Tir dau the ky XXI den nay, Myanmar cang ehiem vi tri quan trgng chinh sach ngoai giao eua Trung Quoc vdi cae nude lang gieng, cu the: Thu nhdt, vdi vi tri dia ly chien luac yeu, Myanmar Id "chia khda" de Trung Qudc tiep can An Dp Duang Myanmar nam d khu vyc Dong Nam A lue dia vdi dien lieh 676.578 km^ vii dan so Feng, Han (2006), "Chinh sach "Lang gieng hda thuan, lang gieng binh yen, lang gigng giau cd" ciia Trung Qudc" Hdng Yen (djch), Tap chi Thong tin Khoa hoc Xa hin, so (283), tt 46 ^ Thang 7/2006 tai Dign dan Hgrp tac kinh tg Vinh Bac Bo md rong (VBBMR) lan thu nhat to chirc tai phd Nam Ninh (Trung Qudc) dng Luu Ky Bao liic la Bi thu Dang Khu tu tti dan trie Choang (Quang Tay) \kn dau tien dua sang kign "mot true hai canh" "Mdt true" la Hanh lang kinh tg Nam Ninh - Singapdre; "hai canh" la Hop tac tigu viing Mekong md rdng va Hgp tac kinh lg VBBMR Theo dd Trung Quoc chii ttuong hinh hai mang hgp tac Ion ttong khu vuc la hgp tac kinh tg trgn bign (Hgp lac kinh tg xuygn Vinh Bac Bd) va hgp tac kinh tg trgn bo (Hgp lac lieu viing Mekong md rong va Hanh lang kmh tg Nam Ninh - Singapore) nham thuc day hgp tac loan dien Trung Qudc - ASEAN 50 khoang 55.622.506 ngudi" (tinh din thang 7/2018), CO Chung duong bien gidi vdi quoe gia: Trung Qude (2.185 km), Bangladesh (193 km) An Do (1463 km), Liio (235 km) va Thai Lan (1.800 km) Trong dd An Do chi phdi khu vuc bien gidi phia Tay cua Myanmar Trung Qudc anh hudng tdi khu vyc phia Ddng BJc eua nude Thai Lan tiep giap toan bp khu vyc phia Ddng trir reo nhd tiep giap vdi Lao Vgi vi tri nhu vay, Myanmar da trd ciu nil chien luge giira Nam va Dong Nam Chau A, nam gitra nga ba Ddng BSe A, Ddng Nam A va Nam A Vdi vi tri "nga tu cua Chau A", Myanmar cd tam quan trgng chiln luge d Chau A va trd moi quan tam cua nhilu quoc gia tren the gidi Vi tri dia - chiln luge ciia Myanmar eang duge nang cao qudc gia tien hanh cai each chfnh tri va kinh te tir dau the ky XXL Myanmar da va dang trd dia ban eanh tranh anh huang cua cac nude Idn, dd phai kl den My, An Do va Trung Qude Doi vdi eac nha hoach dinh chinh sach ciia Trung Qudc thi Myanmar eang cd gia Iri chien luge trgng yeu Myanmar dugc xem la "eau noi" tren bg de hang hda Trung Qude xam nhap vao khu vyc Ddng Nam A va sang An Do Duang, la dudng to lua mdi muc tieu chien luge "hai dai ducmg" cita Trung Quoc Do cd dudng bd bien dai nam tren tuyen hang hai thuong mai eua An Dp Ducmg nen Myanmar la nude lang gieng nhat cd the giup Trung Qude tiep can dai duang tir phia ddng, cu the la vinh Bengal va bien Andaman' Dieu niiy * The World Factbook, "Burma", The CIA Web Site, July 10, 2019, https.//www.cia.gov/library/publications/lheworld-factbook/geos/bm.html * Myoe Maung Aung (2015) "Myanmar's China Policy since 2011- Determinants and Directions" Journal of NGHIEN Cdu DONG BflC fl SO 1(227) 1-2020 Nghien cihi khoa hoc se giup Trung Qude kilm chi An Do mgt Idng gieng Trung Qudc da len kl hoach trgng nhirng ddi thu truyin thing d Chau A, xay dung hai tuyIn dudng kit ndi Van Nam mang lai mgt "hanh lang thir hai" each xa vdi Myanmar: tuyIn dudng bp hoac dudng Bien Dong, nai lien tuc bi tranh chip bdi eac sat tir Ruili (mtpt thj trin bien gidi d Van qude gia khac khu vye nhu Nhat Ban, Nam) din Kyaukphyu ciia bang Rakhine, ASEAN va My Viee tilp can An Do Ducmg Myanmar; tuyIn dudng thuy ndi cang qua Myanmar cdng se tao dilu kien thuan lgi Bhamo d bang Kachin din cac cang Yangon cho Trung Qudc thiet lap mdt tuyIn dudng va Thilawa Ngay 27/4/2011, Tap doan Ky thuang mai xuyen A biing each di vdng qua thuat Dudng sit Trung Qude va Bd Giao eo bien Malacca dang bi tae va ddng thdng van tai Myanmar da ky mdt ban ghi due de tiet kiem thdi gian cung nhu ehi phi nhd vl viec xay dyng tuyIn dudng sit tir thj Vi vay, Trung Qudc hien dang cd ging trin bien gidi Muse (Myaniuar) din thuyet phuc Chinh phii Myanmar cdng nhan phd cang Kyaukpyu* khu vye xung quanh phd cang Thir hai, Myanmar cd nguon tdi nguyen Kyaukphyu dae khu kinh tl (SEZ)'' thien nhien phong phu vd sd hiru trir luang Dieu nam ehien luge khai thae diu ddu khong id tir dao Made qua bang Rakhine va trye Myanmar hien la mgt nhtrng thi tiep den Cdn Minh cua Trung Qudc tir thang trucmg hiem hoi edn lai hau nhu chua dugc 5/2017 va cdng la mgt phan eua sang kiln khai thae vdi ngudn tai nguyen dugc danh "Vanh dai, Con dudng" Dya tren nhirng ca gia cd the sanh ngang vdi cac qudc gia giau sd lgi ich ehien luge va kinh te, Trung Qudc tai nguyen eua Chau A Dae biet, Myanmar cung sire trien khai va thiie day viee xay la qudc gia giau cd ve dau md va cd trii dyng tuyen hanh lang van tai Trung Qudc lugng ddt ty nhien Idn nhat khu vyc Myanmar, tao da eho nude thyc hien Ddng Nam A Theo udc tinh, Myanmar cd ehien luge "hai dai duang"^, tiep can vdi An trO lugng diiu md "khoang 600 trieu thiing Do Duong va ea Thai Binh Duang va du trO ddt tdng cgng la 88 nghin ty Ngoai ra, Trung Qudc cdn xem Myanmar feet khdi - chi it han so vdi Indonesia Mdi nhu la mgt "ehia khda" quan trgng nhat de day, Myanmar edn tim thay trit lutmg d ba nude dam bao an ninh va hgp tac thuang khu vye d vinh Bengal - Mya, Shwe va mai cho tinh Van Nam Day la mdi quan tiim Shwe Phyu (hay cdn ggi la dy an Shwe) vdi chien luge thir hai cua Trung Qudc tai nude udc tinh la 5,7-10 nghin ty feet khdi"'^ Theo danh gia cua Lien Hgp Qudc, Myanmar dirng thir 10 the gidi ve trii lugng Current Southeast Asian Affairs, Vol 34, No GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies Institute of Asian Studies and Hamburg University Press, Germany, p 26-27 '' Ganesan Narayanan (2018), "Bilalerai Issues in Myanmar's Policy towards China", Occasional Paper Series No 38, Southeast Asian Studies, University of Freiburg, Germany, p ' Fan Hongwei (2011) "China's "Look South": China Myanmar Transport Corridor" Ritsuineilcan International Affairs, Vol 10 Kyoto Japan, p 45 NGHIEN Cdu D O N G B ^ C fl s d 1(227) 1-2020 Kudo Toshihiro (2012) "China's Policy toward Myanmar; Challenges and Prospects", The IDE-.JETRO Web Site, October 2012, https.//www.ide.go.jp/English/ Research/Region/Asia/201209^kudo.html ^ Icf la don vi dot, tinh bang trieu trieu feet khdi '° Sinha, Tuii (2009) "China Myanmar Energy Engagements: Challenges and Opportunities for India" IPCS Issue Brief No 134 Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies New Delhi, India, p 51 Nghien cim khoa hoc dau vai 3,2 ty thiing dau va 2.460 ty m^ ty nhien Trong nhung nam dau the ky XXI, viec xuat khau dot ciia Myanmar hang nam mang ve hon ty USD cho quoc gia Vai nguon tai nguyen giau co nhu vay, Myanmar tra "manh dat vang" cho cac nuac 1cm tren the gioi day manh dau tu, khai thae nang luong va nuac lang gieng Trung Quoc la mot nhiJng doi tac co nhieu uu the thuan lgi nhat Thu ba, ddm bdo an ninh va hgp tdc thuang mgi a khu vuc bien gioi Trung QuocMyanmar Do Trung Quoc va Myanmar co duang bien giai lien ke dai khoang 2.129 km nen lgi ich chien luge thu ba la dam bao cac tuyen ducmg thuang mai bien giai va an ninh khu virc bien gioi hai nude Trong nhung nam qua, van de dam bao an ninh dgc bien giai va giai quyet van de noi day sac tgc la mgt nhUng ngi dung hpp tac quan trgng ma hai nuac luon huong toi nham dat dugc thoa thuan song phuang ciing co lgi, thuc day nhu cau phat trien toan dien ciia hai nuac Vdi vi tri nam "tu giac vang" cung vdi mien Dong Bac Thai Lan, Bac Lao va Dong Myanmar, tinh Van Nam ciia Trung Qu6c CO nhieu dieu kien md rong quan he buon ban ben ngoai va Myanmar la doi tac thuang mai Idn nhat ciia tinh Vdi khau hieu "nhin thi gidi, tien ve phucmg Nam" ciing vdi chien luge ''di ben ngoai", Trung Qudc dang day nhanh tien "dai khai pha miin Tay" Thong qua moi quan he kinh te xa hgi gi&a dja phan tinh Van Nam vdi cac nude Dong Nam A va thong qua Myanmar " Tr^n Khanh (2012), "Canh tranh chien luac ciia Trung Qudc, My va An Dp a Myanmar: Thuc trang va trien vong", Tap chi Nghien ciru Quoc te, so 4, tr 132 52 noi cd vi tri dia chiin luge quan trgng Trung Quoc xem nhu la trgng diim tiin don viec tien ve phia Nam nhSm phat trien kinh te Trung Quoc ben ngoai Thuang mai bien gidi vdi Myanmar chiim khoang 30% tong gia tri thuang mai ciia tinh Van Nam va khoang 50% khoi lugng van chuyen Co the ndi, Trung Quoc rat quan tam den viec phat trien thuang mai bien gidi giija tinh Van Nam vdi Myanmar va gia tri thuong mai bien gidi Trung Quoc - Myanmar cung dugc chinh quyen Myanmar xem la "huyet mach" cua nen kinh te nude Vdi ba lgi ich chien luge nhu tren, Myanmar ddng vai tro quan trgng qua trinh trien khai chinh sach doi ngoai vdi cac nude lang gieng cua Trung Quoc tir sau Chien tranh lanh Nhirng noi dung chu yeu chinh sach '^'ngoai giao lang gieng" cua Trung Quoc vol Myanmar nhu'ng nam dau thg ky XXI Moi quan he Trung Qudc Myanmar dugc hinh tir sau Trung Qudc mdi gianh dugc dgc lap' Sudt mgt thdi gian dai, chinh quyen Bac Kinh luon nd luc thiet mdi quan he chinh tri, quan su va kinh te chat che vdi Myanmar Sau su kien 8 " ' \ Trung Qudc da trd mgt ddng Trung Quoc va Myanmar chinh thiic thiet lap quan he ngoai giao vao 8/6/1950 ' Ngay 8/8/1988, hang ngan sinh vien va nhan dan thii Rangoon va cac Ion da xuong ducmg bieu inh phan doi chinh phii tham nhung, bop nghet dan chii, bat luc quan !y kinh te va phat trien dat nu6c (Iich su Myanmar goi la su kien "8888") Tuy nhien, cuoc bieu inh da bj chinh phii quan sy dan ap dam mau Dieu khien cho hang ngan sinh vien va nguoi dan vo t^i Myanmar bi thiet mang Sir kien "8888" da tao mot lan song phan doi tren khap the gioi va cung la nguyen nhan chii yeu khien Lien Hgp Quoc, My va cac niroc phuong Tay thuc hien chinh sach bao vay cam van, trimg phat kinh t^ dfii voi Myanmar Trong boi canh do, Trung Quoc khong nhung khong phan doi ma iing ho, tai trg cho chinh quyen quan su Myanmar NGHIEN cdu DONG BflC fl SO 1(227) 1-2020 Nghien citu khoa hoc minh than thiet va la qudc gia cd tieng ndi quan trgng ddi vdi Myanmar Budc sang d^u the ky XXI, Trung Qudc cang quan tam hem den nude lang gieng Myanmar nhSm md rdng pham vi anh hudng tai nude nay, tao dieu kien thuan lgi cho viec phat trien chiin luge "hudng Nam" Chinh sach doi ngoai ciia Trung Qudc vdi Myanmar tir sau Chiin tranh Lanh dugc thuc hien tren cac ugi dung chu yeu: chinh tri - ngoai giao, kinh te va an ninh - quan su Ve chinh tri - ngoai giao, hai nude Trung Quoc va Myanmar hudng den nhu mot sir dam bao can thiet cho phat trien bin virng Chinh sach cua Trung QUQC ddi vdi nude lang gieng Myanmar the hien cac cugc gap gd, tiep xiic, tham vieng cap tao song phuang, da phuang; cac cudc hdi dam trao ddi ciia cac doan ngoai giao Su -kien Uy vien Thudng vu Bg Chinh tri Dang Cdng san Trung Qudc Tien Ky Tham den tham Myanmar (thang 2/1993) da md ca hgi mdi cho su phat trien quan he hai nude, bdi trudc dd mdi quan he hai nude bi ran nut, chinh sach ciia Trung Qudc khdng dat dugc nhung ket qua nhu dinh hudng Trong cac chuyen tham cap cao, gidi lanh dao Trung Qudc deu khang dinh "tang cudng quan he Trung Qudc Myanmar la mdt phan quan trgng ciia ngoai giao Trung Quoc lien quan den cac khu vuc xung quanh", "phat trien mdi quan he tdt dep giira hai nude la mdt ph^n quan trgng chinh sach ddi ngoai cua Trung Quoc, va nguyen tac dugc thiit lap se khdng thay ddi" Budc sang dau thi ky XXI, Trung Qudc cang tang cudng anh hudng d Myanmar thdng qua viec lien tiip len tiing bao ve chinh quyen quan su, chdng lai cac chi trich va cac lenh trung phat cua cong ddng qudc te Nam 2003, Trung Qudc tuyen b6 viec Myanmar bk giir ba Aung San Suu Kyi la van de ndi bo ciia nude va B^c Kinh phan ddi viec cac nude khac gia tang ap luc ddi vdi chinh quyen quan su, cho rang Myanmar hoan toan cd thi giai quyit dugc van de Ngoai ra, Trung Quoc cung thiic day cac hoat ddng iing hg chinh tri vdi Myanmar Ch^ng han, 15/9/2006, tai Lien Hgp Qudc, Trung Quoe phan ddi viec dua van de Myanmar vao chuang trinh nghi su cua Hpi ddng Bao an hay dau nam 2007, Trung Qudc len tieng bao ve chinh quyen nude tai dien dan Lien Hgp Qudc Ngay 12/01/2007, My va Anh da de trinh mdt dir thao nghi quyet ve nhtJng van de ndi bd ciia Myanmar len Hgi ddng Bao an Lien Hgp Qudc Ndi dung ban du thao len an nhirng vi pham nhan quyen cua chinh phii quan sir Myanmar, keu ggi chinh phii nude tra tu cho cae tii nhan ehinh tri, bao gdm nha lanh dao dan chii Aung San Suu Kyi va tham gia cudc ddi thoai chinh tri nham thiic day qua trinh dan chu hda De iing hd chinh phii Myanmar, Trung Qudc da su dung quyen phii quyet cua minh ve du thao nghj quyet nay'^ Ong Wang Guangya, Dai sii Trung Qudc tai Lien Hgp Qudc tuyen bd: "Tinh hinh nude hien d Myanmar khdng gay mdi de doa ddi vdi hda binh va an ninh qudc te hoac khu vuc", va nhan manh '•• Nguyen Khanh Nguyen San (2016), Chinh sach cua Trung Qudc ddi vai Myanmar lie sau Chien tranh lanh den 2015, LuSn an TiSn sT nganh Quan he qufic ti Hoc vien Ngoai giao Ha Nfii, tr 60 '^ Hong Zhao (2008), "China and India's Competitive Relations with Myanmar", ICS Working Paper, No 20087, Institute of China Studies, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, p I NGHIEN cdru OONG B^C fl, SO 1(227) 1-2020 53 Nghien cicu khoa hpc "nhung van de tuang tu cung ton tai cr nhieu quoc gia khac'"'^ Vao thang 6/2007, Trung Quoc da to chue cuoc gap go dau tien (ke tir nam 2003) giiia cac quan chirc ciia My va Myanmar tai Bac Kinh ve van de tha liinh tu phe doi lap, ba Aung San Suu Kyi Tai cuoc hoi dam voi Ngoai truang Myanmar U Nyan Win Bo truang Bo Ngoai giao Trung Quoc Duong Gia Trien khang djnh: "Trung Quoc riit hy vong Myanmar se thiic day tien trinh dan chu de hoa hap dan toc'"'^ Nhirng tuyen bo tren cho thay, Trung Quoe luon coi sir on dinh cua Myanmar va bao ve nuac tai Hpi dong Bao an Lien Hap Quoc Mat khae, Trung Quoc luon xem cac dien bien tai Myanmar la viin de noi bo ciia mot chinh phu va mot quoc gia co chu quyen Diiy la bien phap ngoai giao khon ngoan hiru hieu giup Trung Quoc dan diin gay sire ep vai Myanmar Chinh sach eua Trung Quoc doi vai Myanmar eon dugc the hien ro qua sir kien "Cach mang ca sa" nam 2007 xay tai nucrc lang gieng Ngay 09/9/2007 Lien minh Cac nha su toan Mien Dien da dua mot ban tuyen bo yeu eau chinh quyen giam gia ca hang hoa va gia nguyen lieu, phong thieh tit ca til nhan chinh tri bao gom ea ba Aung San Suu Kyi va doi thoai vcri cac lire lugng dan chu nham hoa giai diin toe va hoa giai nhung dau kh6 ciia nhiin dan Ban tuyen bo cung dua thai han den 17/9 de ehinh quySn Myanmar thuc hien nhtrng yeu ciiu neu tren neu khong muon doi mat vol mot cuoc tay chay ton giao Sau thai han tren tir "^ Womack, Brantly (2010), China Among Unequals: Asymmetric Foreign Relations in Asia, World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd., Singapore, p 244 '^ Womack, Brantly (2010), Tidd, p 244 54 18/9 din 24/9/2007 nhilu cupe bieu tinh da no ram ro o Yangon voi sir tham gia cua khoang 100.000 nguoi duai su dan dau ciia hang nghin nha su" Chinh quyen quan su nuoc da dan ap ddm mau cac cugc bieu tinh, bat bo va giam ciim hang nghin nguai, eo nhieu nha su gay nen cugc khung hoang chinh tri nghiem trgng a Myanmar Sir kien "Cach mang ca sa" niim 2007 da lam day len lan song phan doi tren the gioi, truoe het la tir cac nuac phuang Tay va dat mgt thach thirc mai cho Trung Quoc chinh sach ngoai giao vol Myanmar Sir kien thang 8/2007 a Myanmar da duge dua thao luan hai lan tai Lien Hgp Quoc The giai keu ggi va mong muon nhtrng quoc gia lang gieng cua Myanmar, chii yeu la cac nuoc ASEAN, Trung Quoc va An Do can the hien vai tro viec len an chinh quyen quan su va iing hp cugc dau tranh diin chii a Myanmar Trong My va cac nuoc phuong Tay dang site phan doi ehinh quyen quan su Myanmar thi Trung Quoc da khong len an Myanmar ciing nhu tir choi hgp tac vai cpng dong quoc te nham ap dat lenh cam van mcri doi vol quoc gia Dong Nam A Trai qua nhieu thang tram Trung Quoc va Myanmar da khong ngtmg cimg CO, that chat va nang ciip quan he hai nuac len tam quan he doi tae hgp tac chien luge toan dien (thang 5/2011) sau chuyen tham Trung Quoc ciia T6ng thing Thein Sein" Horsey, Richard (2008), "The Dramatic Events of 2007 in Myanmar Domestic and Intemational Implications", in Dictatorship, Disorder and Decline in Myanmar, edited by Monique Skidmore, Trevor Wilson, ANU E Press, The Australian National University, Australia, p 18-19 " Chenyang, Li (2012), "China Myanmar Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership: A NGHIEN Cdru DONG BAC a sd 1(227) 1-2020 Nghien cicu khoa hpc Ve kinh te, mgt thai gian dai thai ky Chien tranh Lanh, Trung Quoc dii co nhtrng lgi ich kinh te Myanmar va la ttiot nhtrng nha tieu thu lan cac nguyen lieu ciia Myanmar Thi trucmg no\ dia cua Myanmar cung tran ngap cac loai hang hoa cua Trung Quoc De tao dieu kien phat trien quan he kinh te, Trung Quoc dii dau tu vao eac du an xay dung ca so tang, giao thiing van tai Ngay ttr nira sau thap nien 1990, Trung Quoc cong bo ke hoach noi lien cac viing dat nam sau npi dia ciia minh voi vung ba bien An Dp Duong thong qua cac de an xay dung viing kinh te dae biet (SEZ) va 14 hai cang dugc xay dung dpc eae ba bien Tren ca sa du an phat triin tieu vung song Mekong mo rpng (GMS), Trung Qu6e da cong viee dua cac tinh Quang Tay, Van Nam vao GMS dl tao mgt khu vue kinh te 1cm han, rpng 2,6 trieu km^ vai 326 trieu dan Trong chiln luge "huong Nam" cua Trung Qu6c dugc day manh vao nhtrng nam dau thl ky XXL Myanmar la viing dSt ly tuong ma chinh quyin BSc Kinh nham tai vdri ngufin tai nguyen thien nhien giau eo Vol chiln luge "mgt true, hai canh", Trung Qudc dang xay dung tuyIn ducmg cao toe tit Van Nam din Myitkyina (thii phu bang Kachin, Myanmar) va tuyen duong sat cao toe tit Lasa, Tay Tang din Muse (thupc bang Shan, Myanmar) va tir Muse tai biln Bengal Hai tuyIn duong giao thong se giup Trung Qu6c thiie diy xudt khiu hang tieu diing sang Myanmar va nhap khau cac loai nguyen lieu tir Myanmar Regional Threat'^" Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, Vol 31 No GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies Institute of Asian Studies and Hamburg University Press Germany, p 58 NGHIEN CdfU OONQ BflC A s6 1(227) 1-2020 Voi nhtrng chinh sach kinh te nhu vay, Trung Quoe dii tra nha cung cap chinh eac san pham hiing tieu diing, trang thiet bi va von cho Myanmar Chi chua diiy 20 nam (1989-2005), Trung Quoc da dupe huang lgi thang du thuang mai tich liiy vai Myanmar la 6.438,86 trieu USD^" Tir nam 2005 din niim 2010, Trung Quoe da lan lugt vugt qua Singapore va Thai Lan de tra doi tac thuong mai so mgt ciia Myanmar voi tong kim ngach thuang mai dat 4,4 ty USD^' Dieu eang cung co vi the Trung Quoe vai tu each la doi tac thuang mai Ion nhat cua Myanmar Ve an ninh - qudn sir, vol vi tri dia chinh tri chien luge quan trgng cua Myanmar, sau Chien tranh Lanh ket thuc, Trung Quoc da chu trgng hgp tac an ninh va ho trg quiin su cho nuac lang gieng Myanmar Tir eu6i thl ky XX din nhihig nam dau the ky XXL Trung Qu6e cang gia tang anh huang manh me d6i vai cac khu vue trpng yeu cua Myanmar Nam 2003, Trung Quoc ho trg Myanmar xay dung mgt ben tau dai 85 m doi vol cae ea so hai quan tren quan dao Coco, nam each dao Nicobar cua An Do 18 km va thilt lap he thing trinh sat, thong tin dien tu hien dai tren dao Ngoai ra, Trung Qu6e xay dung mgt cang nuac sau cr Kyaukpyu thupc bang Rakhine, Myanmar Kyaukpyu co mot vi tri chien lupe nam tren tuyIn duimg kit nil ph6 Con Minh (thu phu tinh Van Nam, Trung Qudc) vcri Sittwe cua Myanmar Trung Quoc cting da lap eac tram quan sat tinh hinh tai ^^ Myoe, Maung Aung (2007) "Sino Myanmar Economic Relations since 1988" ARI IVorlcing Paper, No 86 Asia Research Institute, Singapore, p -' Chu Cong Phiing (chu bien, 201!) Myanmar - Itch sir vii hien lai, Nxb Chinh tri Qu6c gia - Su that Ha Noi tr 55 jy/gnien cuu Knoa noc Sittwe va dao Zadetkyi Kyun (nim ngoai khai mui circ nam cua Myanmar), cho phep nuac giam sat viec lmi thong tai eo bien Malacca'^ Ben canh viec tra doi tac cung cip • vu lan nhat cua Myanmar, Trung Qudc da xay dung hanh lang tir Con Minh tai khu virc ba bien phia Tay Myanmar, doi dien vai vanh dai An Dp Duang Ngoai ra, Trung Quoc cOng da ho trg Myanmar viec phat trien cac can cu hai quan tai Sittwe, Hianggyi, Kyaukpyu, Mergui va Zadetkyi Kyun bang each xay dirng cac ca so ti6p nhien lieu va cac tram radar cho cac tau ngam Trung Quoc hoat dong tren vinh Bengal^^ Nhirng dong thai ciia Trung Quoc a viing vinh Bengal va bien Andaman la buac di dau tien nham dam bao nhiing lgi ich cao nhat cho Trung Quoc tren bien An Dp Duang Cac eg sa dugc sii dung nhim thu thap tin tire tinh bao ve nhiing hoat dgng cua hai quan An Dp va ia can cii tien tieu cho cac hoat dpng cua hai quan Trung Qu6c tai bi6n An Ducmg Trong boi canh nhung nd lire mo rpng lire lugng hai quan ciia An Do dang bi be tac, sir hien dien cang tang cua hai quan Trung Quoc tai khu vuc noi tren da gay nen hau qua chien luge to Icm d6i vai An Dp, vi nhung Igi the vh dia li truy6n thdng cua An Dp cang co nguy ca bi de dga truac kha nang xam nhap cang sau vao Myanmar ciia Trung Quoc " Hong, Zhao (2008), "China and India's Competitive Relations with Myanmar", ICS Working Paper, No 20087, Institute of China Studies, University of Malaya Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, p -^ Singh, Yogendra (2007), "India's Myanmar Policy: A Dilemma Between Realism and idealism", IPCS Special Report No 37, institute of Peace and Conflicf Studies, New Delhi, India, p 56 Ke tii dau the ky XXI, Trung Quoc da can du mpt each manh me vao Myanmar va am tham lam suy giam anh hugng cila An Do thong qua viec thue thi ehien luge "Chuoi ngpc trai"^^ bang each xay dung mpt loat eang bien g eac nuac ven An Do Ducmg va Dong Nam A, Kyaukphyu va Yangon la hai ''hat nggc" "chuoi ngpc trai" De thuc hien chien luge nay, Trung Quoc da dong thdi cai thien quan he vdi hau het cac nude lang gieng ciia An Do bao gdm Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh va Sri Lanka Trong bdi canh do, Myanmar la nai ma Trung Qudc c6 the sir dung lam ban dap cho tham vgng md rdng pham vi anh hudng cua minh xudng khu vuc Ddng Nam A va Nam A ^ Ngoai ra, Trung Qudc cdn dao tao nhieu sT quan Myanmar tai cae trudng quan sir d nude Trong nhirng nam 2002-2004, Trung Qudc bat dau huan luyen cac sT quan hai quan Myanmar va hai ben td chiic cac cudc dien tap ehung dpc bd bien phia Nam Myanmar Muc tieu cua Trung Qudc d khu vuc la kiem che sir phat trien eua An Do va tuang lai se thdng tri An Dp Duang Mot so nhan xet Thie nhdt, buoc sang nhiing nam dau the ky XXI, ehinh saeh ddi ngoai eiia Trung Qudc ndi ehung va ddi vdi Myanmar noi rieng ve ca ban van dugc xac lap tren nen " "Chuoi ngoc trai" (String of Pearls) la mot thuat ngiJ duac cac nha phan tich My diing de mo ta cac tuyen giao thong hang hai ciia Trung Quoc keo dai den Sudan, di qua eo bien chi6n luge Mandab, eo bien Malacca, eo bien Hormuz va eo bien Lombok Trung Quoc muon dat nhieu can cii quan sy, cu the la can cu hai quan, !ai nhieu nirac k]iac durgc xem la "Ngoc Trai" nSm "Chuoi" trai dai tu phia nam Trung Quoc sang An Do Ducmg -^ Gupta, Ranjit (2013), "China, Myanmar and India: A Strategic Perspective", Indian Foreign Affairs Journal, Vol 8, No 1, New Delhi, India, p 82 NGHIEN cdu {>ONG BflC a SO 1(227) 1-2020 Nghien cicu khoa hpc tang nhung nhan to chii yeu ve nhung tham ngoai, nhung van tim each dam bao nhung vong truyen thong viec ma rpng anh lgi cot loi ciia minh hucng va nang cao vi the nuac 1cm ctia Thir hai, chinh sach cua Trung QuSc ddi Trung Quoc Ciing voi xu the hoa binh, on vai Myanmar nhixng nam dau the ky dinh va phat trien, Trung Quoc da thiic day XXI dien tren nhieu ITnh vuc vdi cac ngi manh me chinh sach "ngoai giao lang gieng" dung hgp tac quan trgng tii chinh tri - ngoai nham pha va rao can vai cac nuac xung giao den kinh te va an ninh - quan su Trong quanh von co nhieu cang thang va thii dich do, quan he chinh tri - ngoai giao va kinh te vai Trung Quoc thai ky Chien tranh dugc nhin nhan nhu mgt cong cu chinh thiic Lanh, dong thai giiip nuac tang cuang day su phat trien quan he hai nude Day hop tac, thiic day hap tac l