MỐI QUAN HỆ GIỮA THÂM HỤT NGÂN SÁCH VÀ TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ VIỆT NAM LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ KINH TẾ.PDF

B TR NG GIÁO D VÀ ÀO T H KINH T TP T CHÍ MINH KINH CHÍ MINH N M 2013 B TR NG GIÁO D VÀ ÀO T H KINH T TP CHÍ MINH CHUYÊN NGÀNH: TÀI CHÍNH T KINH GV CHÍ MINH N M 2013 L n Lu c tơi nghiên c u th c hi n Ngu n s li u nghiên c u t i Vi t Nam t ngu d li u cl yt ng th i, lu c công b b t k nghiên c u Các thông tin, s li u vi t, k thu t x lý mô y trung th c Tác gi Nguy n Lê Hà Thanh Na L IC Tác gi xin chân thành c Thành ph H i H c Kinh T n tình gi ng d y, truy báu cho su t th i gian h c t p c bi t, xin trân tr ng c m t nh ng ki n th c quý i h c cao h c t y PGS.TS S ng s d n t n tâm góp ý cho tơi su t q trình th c hi n lu Sau cùng, xin c lu c ch nh s a hồn ch y H ng b o v c t t nghi p cao h c Chân thành c Nguy n Lê Hà Thanh Na ng DANH M C B NG BI U -2000 : -2012 : -2012 3: -2012 : - B ng 3.1: Các bi n c a mơ hình (1990-2012) B ng 3.2: Th ng kê mô t giá tr c a bi n mơ hình B ng 3.3: K t qu ki nh tính d ng Hình 3.1: Các nghi m c a mơ hình VAR B ng 3.4: Ki nh tính nh B ng 3.5: K t qu ki nh m i quan h nhân qu mơ hình VAR B ng 3.6: K t qu ki nh m i quan h Granger t ng c p mơ hình VAR DANH M C T VI T T T NSNN - PB THNS - BD Public Budget Budget Deflict GFS IMF GDP WTO ADB Government Finance Statistics Internationnal Monetary Fund Gross Domestic Product World Trade Orgnarization Asian Development Bank Government Statistics Organization Real Interest Rate Gross Investment Consumer Price Index Real Exchange Rate Inflation Vector Autogression GSO RIR GI CPI REX INFN VAR DNNN CSTK VN Ngân sách nhà n Chính sách tài khóa M CL C Trang bìa ph L L ic Danh m c b ng, bi u Danh m c t vi t t t M cl c PH N M U Lý ch tài M c tiêu nghiên c u u ng ph m vi nghiên c ti n c K t c tài tài 1: LÝ THUY T V THÂM H NG KINH T 1.1 Lý thuy t v thâm h t ngân sách 1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3 M t s cách tính thâm h t ngân sách 1.1.4 10 1.1.5 lý thâm h c 12 14 ng 17 22 K T LU 24 2: TH C TR NG M I QUAN H GI A THÂM H T NG KINH T VI T NAM ng kinh t Vi t Nam 25 2.2 Th c tr ng thâm h t ngân sách t i Vi t Nam 30 2.3 M i quan h gi a thâm h ng kinh t Vi t n 1990-2012 33 K T LU 36 : PHÂN TÍCH TH C NGHI M N 1990-2012 u 37 3.1.1 Ki m nh tính d ng 37 3.1.2 Ki nh quan h nhân qu 3.2 Mơ hình ki n 38 nh 40 3.2.1 Mô t d li u 40 3.2.2 Ki nh tính d tr 42 3.2.3 tr t 3.2.4 Ki m a mơ hình 42 nh m i quan h nhân qu Granger gi a thâm h t ngân sách ng kinh t 45 K T LU 48 4: K T LU N VÀ KHUY N NGH 4.1 K t lu n 49 4.2 Khuy n ngh 50 4.2.1 Khuy n ngh v u hành sách kinh t 50 4.2.2 Khuy n ngh v nâng cao hi u qu 52 4.2.3 Khuy n ngh v chi tiêu công 54 4.2.4 Khuy n ngh nâng cao hi u qu ho 4.2.5 Khuy n ngh v tính minh b ch ch ng c a doanh nghi p 55 56 4.2.6 Khuy n ngh nâng cao qu n lý n công 57 4.2.7 Khuy n ngh 4.3 H n ch nghiên c n t giá 57 ng nghiên c u ti p theo 58 4.3.1 H n ch nghiên c u 58 4.3.2 ng nghiên c u ti p theo 59 Tài li u tham kh o Ph l c U ng kinh t v có d u hi u M i quan h gi kinh m -2012 c : *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Null Hypothesis: LNBD has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=4) t-Statistic Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level Prob.* -1.390063 -4.467895 -3.644963 -3.261452 0.8336 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Null Hypothesis: D(LNBD) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=4) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -13.81079 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -4.467895 5% level -3.644963 10% level -3.261452 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Null Hypothesis: LNCPI has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=4) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.804968 0.9469 Test critical values: 1% level -4.532598 5% level -3.673616 10% level -3.277364 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Null Hypothesis: D(LNCPI) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=4) t-Statistic Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Prob.* -5.935659 -4.467895 -3.644963 -3.261452 0.0005 Null Hypothesis: LNGI has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=4) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.982923 0.5781 Test critical values: 1% level -4.440739 5% level -3.632896 10% level -3.254671 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Null Hypothesis: D(LNGI) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=4) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.618096 0.0010 Test critical values: 1% level -4.467895 5% level -3.644963 10% level -3.261452 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Null Hypothesis: LNREX has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=4) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.410926 0.3628 Test critical values: 1% level -4.532598 5% level -3.673616 10% level -3.277364 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Null Hypothesis: D(LNREX) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=4) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -10.73046 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -4.467895 5% level -3.644963 10% level -3.261452 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Null Hypothesis: RIR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=4) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.315667 0.4091 Test critical values: 1% level -4.440739 5% level -3.632896 10% level -3.254671 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Null Hypothesis: D(RIR) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=4) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.584977 0.0084 Test critical values: 1% level -4.498307 5% level -3.658446 10% level -3.268973 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values PH L C 2: KI NH GRANGER Vector Autoregression Estimates Sample (adjusted): 1993 2012 Included observations: 20 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] D(LNGDP) D(LNBD) D(LNCPI) D(LNGI) D(LNREX) D(RIR) D(LNGDP(-1)) 0.224109 -234.2462 -1.810357 4.083023 -1.179595 -91.24020 (0.41646) (284.857) (1.38513) (1.96465) (0.48880) (35.3012) [ 0.53813] [-0.82233] [-1.30699] [ 2.07824] [-2.41324] [-2.58462] D(LNGDP(-2)) -0.316619 79.45263 0.616052 -2.020795 1.747748 60.21210 (0.31052) (212.398) (1.03279) (1.46490) (0.36446) (26.3216) [-1.01963] [ 0.37407] [ 0.59649] [-1.37948] [ 4.79538] [ 2.28756] D(LNBD(-1)) 6.38E-06 -0.991260 0.002526 -0.005929 0.001356 0.052641 (0.00048) (0.32705) (0.00159) (0.00226) (0.00056) (0.04053) [ 0.01335] [-3.03092] [ 1.58860] [-2.62848] [ 2.41607] [ 1.29882] D(LNBD(-2)) -0.000122 -0.087441 0.001268 -0.005032 0.001278 0.013606 (0.00050) (0.33895) (0.00165) (0.00234) (0.00058) (0.04200) [-0.24679] [-0.25798] [ 0.76954] [-2.15239] [ 2.19705] [ 0.32392] D(LNCPI(-1)) 0.064310 88.98705 1.041923 -1.983289 0.729381 17.75774 (0.21616) (147.851) (0.71893) (1.01972) (0.25370) (18.3225) [ 0.29752] [ 0.60187] [ 1.44927] [-1.94493] [ 2.87492] [ 0.96918] D(LNCPI(-2)) -0.129789 16.28640 -0.362239 0.909140 -0.215694 -9.670652 (0.10049) (68.7373) (0.33424) (0.47408) (0.11795) (8.51833) [-1.29152] [ 0.23694] [-1.08377] [ 1.91770] [-1.82869] [-1.13528] D(LNGI(-1)) -0.057210 27.89145 0.302714 -1.088800 0.298656 17.90090 (0.08668) (59.2900) (0.28830) (0.40892) (0.10174) (7.34756) [-0.66000] [ 0.47042] [ 1.05000] [-2.66262] [ 2.93551] [ 2.43631] D(LNGI(-2)) 0.194446 -60.34515 -0.071641 0.893266 -0.334431 -16.60864 (0.07901) (54.0408) (0.26278) (0.37272) (0.09273) (6.69705) [ 2.46111] [-1.11666] [-0.27263] [ 2.39663] [-3.60644] [-2.47999] D(LNREX(-1)) -0.249085 81.90993 -0.141082 -1.032442 0.324141 -24.90404 (0.16437) (112.427) (0.54668) (0.77540) (0.19292) (13.9326) [-1.51542] [ 0.72856] [-0.25807] [-1.33149] [ 1.68019] [-1.78747] D(LNREX(-2)) 0.069866 -56.19141 -0.370018 0.928378 -0.157705 -11.49790 (0.09491) (64.9204) (0.31568) (0.44775) (0.11140) (8.04531) [ 0.73611] [-0.86554] [-1.17214] [ 2.07341] [-1.41566] [-1.42914] D(RIR(-1)) -0.006605 -1.206061 -0.001962 0.011301 -0.010828 -0.028990 (0.00453) (3.09901) (0.01507) (0.02137) (0.00532) (0.38405) [-1.45782] [-0.38918] [-0.13021] [ 0.52875] [-2.03620] [-0.07548] D(RIR(-2)) 0.000860 -0.153415 -0.006627 0.026674 -0.014365 -0.572563 (0.00350) (2.39172) (0.01163) (0.01650) (0.00410) (0.29640) [ 0.24584] [-0.06414] [-0.56984] [ 1.61705] [-3.50011] [-1.93175] C 0.071630 6.608062 0.106584 0.014818 -0.038936 2.958005 (0.02848) (19.4785) (0.09472) (0.13434) (0.03342) (2.41389) [ 2.51530] [ 0.33925] [ 1.12531] [ 0.11030] [-1.16492] [ 1.22541] R-squared 0.708615 Adj R-squared Sum sq resids S.E equation F-statistic Log likelihood Akaike AIC Schwarz SC Mean dependent S.D dependent 0.209098 0.457697 -0.327088 0.502450 0.633724 0.484819 0.002356 1102.282 0.026063 0.052433 0.003246 16.92839 0.018346 12.54866 0.061018 0.086548 0.021533 1.555102 1.418601 2.336313 0.609755 2.598924 3.739449 2.490019 62.08624 -68.47282 38.05103 31.06066 58.88290 -26.71137 -4.908624 8.147282 -2.505103 -1.806066 -4.588290 3.971137 -4.261398 8.794508 -1.857877 -1.158840 -3.941064 4.618363 0.069868 0.213939 0.075021 0.094893 0.033938 -0.200000 0.020629 17.04026 0.052968 0.122698 0.035579 2.166601 Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) Determinant resid covariance Log likelihood Akaike information 0.800204 0.511073 0.816692 1.40E-11 2.58E-14 142.6143 -6.461430 0.865056 0.810196 criterion Schwarz criterion -2.578074 VAR Model - Substituted Coefficients: =============================== D(LNGDP) = 0.224108738438*D(LNGDP(-1)) - 0.316619217079*D(LNGDP(2)) + 6.38294588967e-06*D(LNBD(-1)) - 0.000122294954909*D(LNBD(-2)) + 0.0643103604511*D(LNCPI(-1)) 0.129789365393*D(LNCPI(-2)) 0.0572100123268*D(LNGI(-1)) + 0.194445715285*D(LNGI(-2)) 0.249084960779*D(LNREX(-1)) + 0.0698663972005*D(LNREX(-2)) 0.00660499092031*D(RIR(-1)) + 0.00085961328654*D(RIR(-2)) + 0.0716296140018 D(LNBD) = - 234.24617299*D(LNGDP(-1)) + 79.45262745*D(LNGDP(-2)) 0.991260414527*D(LNBD(-1)) 0.0874410179438*D(LNBD(-2)) + 88.9870461889*D(LNCPI(-1)) + 16.28639533*D(LNCPI(-2)) + 27.8914549651*D(LNGI(-1)) 60.3451512123*D(LNGI(-2)) + 81.9099323865*D(LNREX(-1)) 56.1914083867*D(LNREX(-2)) 1.20606085819*D(RIR(-1)) - 0.153415110205*D(RIR(-2)) + 6.60806186577 D(LNCPI) = - 1.81035714379*D(LNGDP(-1)) + 0.616051963307*D(LNGDP(2)) + 0.00252634295296*D(LNBD(-1)) + 0.00126832976667*D(LNBD(-2)) + 1.04192323111*D(LNCPI(-1)) 0.362239101889*D(LNCPI(-2)) + 0.302714473875*D(LNGI(-1)) 0.0716412132129*D(LNGI(-2)) 0.141082166639*D(LNREX(-1)) 0.37001820949*D(LNREX(-2)) 0.00196221360133*D(RIR(-1)) 0.00662721509853*D(RIR(-2)) + 0.106584488691 D(LNGI) = 4.0830225272*D(LNGDP(-1)) - 2.02079481501*D(LNGDP(-2)) 0.00592890831124*D(LNBD(-1)) - 0.00503169769848*D(LNBD(-2)) 1.98328868644*D(LNCPI(-1)) + 0.909139941185*D(LNCPI(-2)) 1.08879980005*D(LNGI(-1)) + 0.893266038619*D(LNGI(-2)) 1.03244197596*D(LNREX(-1)) + 0.928378090578*D(LNREX(-2)) + 0.01130139482*D(RIR(-1)) + 0.0266742096243*D(RIR(-2)) + 0.0148182738556 D(LNREX) = - 1.17959547904*D(LNGDP(-1)) + 1.74774842018*D(LNGDP(2)) + 0.00135590019285*D(LNBD(-1)) + 0.00127785115527*D(LNBD(-2)) + 0.729381488944*D(LNCPI(-1)) 0.215693546458*D(LNCPI(-2)) + 0.29865559169*D(LNGI(-1)) 0.334430739722*D(LNGI(-2)) + 0.324141407001*D(LNREX(-1)) 0.157704626092*D(LNREX(-2)) 0.0108280563893*D(RIR(-1)) 0.0143647431034*D(RIR(-2)) 0.0389364825797 D(RIR) = - 91.2402038701*D(LNGDP(-1)) + 60.2120979641*D(LNGDP(-2)) + 0.0526409550844*D(LNBD(-1)) + 0.0136061476493*D(LNBD(-2)) + 17.7577432162*D(LNCPI(-1)) 9.67065205534*D(LNCPI(-2)) + 17.9008957145*D(LNGI(-1)) 16.6086389359*D(LNGI(-2)) 24.9040445053*D(LNREX(-1)) 11.4979014493*D(LNREX(-2)) 0.0289898035248*D(RIR(-1)) - 0.572563355603*D(RIR(-2)) + 2.95800540857 VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Endogenous variables: D(LNGDP) D(LNBD) D(LNCPI) D(LNGI) D(LNREX) D(RIR) Exogenous variables: C Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 20 Lag LogL LR NA FPE 20.40195 9.55e-09 71.50653 66.43595* 2.54e-09 142.6143 49.77544 2.83e-10* AIC SC HQ -1.440195 -1.141476 1.381882 -2.950653 -0.859615 2.542460 5.703358 -6.461430* -2.578074* * * indicates lag order selected by the criterion LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level) FPE: Final prediction error AIC: Akaike information criterion SC: Schwarz information criterion HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 20 Dependent variable: D(LNGDP) Excluded Chi-sq df Prob D(LNBD) 0.186776 0.9108 D(LNCPI) 3.503448 0.1735 D(LNGI) 6.205000 0.0449 D(LNREX) 3.297280 0.1923 D(RIR) 2.932972 0.2307 All 16.98909 10 0.0746 Dependent variable: D(LNBD) Excluded Chi-sq df D(LNGDP) 0.676245 D(LNCPI) 2.038536 D(LNGI) 1.247095 D(LNREX) 1.530288 D(RIR) 0.161165 All 4.250384 10 Prob 0.7131 0.3609 0.5360 0.4653 0.9226 0.9353 Dependent variable: D(LNCPI) Excluded Chi-sq df D(LNGDP) 1.708321 D(LNBD) 3.243953 D(LNGI) 1.132740 D(LNREX) 1.378152 D(RIR) 0.335689 All 6.344554 10 Prob 0.4256 0.1975 0.5676 0.5020 0.8455 0.7855 Dependent variable: D(LNGI) Excluded Chi-sq df D(LNGDP) 4.567160 Prob 0.1019 D(LNBD) D(LNCPI) D(LNREX) D(RIR) All 6.913850 4.091380 7.180950 2.630133 29.05769 2 2 10 0.0315 0.1293 0.0276 0.2685 0.0012 Dependent variable: D(LNREX) Excluded Chi-sq df D(LNGDP) 23.07827 D(LNBD) 6.023543 D(LNCPI) 9.178368 D(LNGI) 15.55095 D(RIR) 12.74637 All 42.27104 10 Prob 0.0000 0.0492 0.0102 0.0004 0.0017 0.0000 Dependent variable: D(RIR) Excluded Chi-sq df D(LNGDP) 8.267343 D(LNBD) 3.141225 D(LNCPI) 1.292331 D(LNGI) 8.568447 Prob 0.0160 0.2079 0.5241 0.0138 D(LNREX) All 0.1045 0.0161 4.516314 21.80222 10 PH L C 3: KI NH NHÂN QU GRANGER THEO C P BI N VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Endogenous variables: D(LNGDP) D(LNGI) Exogenous variables: C Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 18 Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ 61.94106 65.23278 72.23740 83.79654 89.80550 NA 5.486194 10.11780 14.12783* 6.008963 4.39e-06 4.78e-06 3.51e-06 1.60e-06 1.43e-06* -6.660118 -6.581420 -6.915267 -7.755171 -7.978389* -6.561188 -6.284629 -6.420616 -7.062660 -7.088017* -6.646477 -6.540496 -6.847061 -7.659683 -7.855619* VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Endogenous variables: D(LNBD) D(LNGI) Exogenous variables: C Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 18 Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ -61.99754 -51.01102 -45.58146 -43.60623 -41.13669 NA 4.200959 7.110838 7.209768 7.124479 18.31087* 1.944648 6.334558 6.631348* 6.375481 7.842692 1.698835* 6.175718* 6.670369 6.243924* 2.414176 2.250930 6.400692 7.093203 6.496180 2.469534 2.980867 6.570744 7.461115 6.693514 VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 20 Dependent variable: D(LNBD) Excluded Chi-sq df Prob D(LNGI) 0.892386 0.6401 All 0.892386 0.6401 Dependent variable: D(LNGI) Excluded Chi-sq df Prob D(LNBD) 4.862933 0.0879 All 4.862933 0.0879 VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests Sample: 1990 2012 Included observations: 18 Dependent variable: D(LNGDP) Excluded Chi-sq df Prob D(LNGI) 63.19120 0.0000 All 63.19120 0.0000 Dependent variable: D(LNGI) Excluded Chi-sq df Prob D(LNGDP) 9.015212 0.0607 All 9.015212 0.0607 ... x p vào chi ngân sách nhà u hành sách ngân sách có thâm h t n vay n m thu ngân sách chi tr n g c n m chi ngân sách ph n ch t c a thu, chi ngân sách c a nhà c Các th c tính thâm h t ngân sách. .. (GFS), thâm h nh b ng chênh l ch gi a chi ngân sách thu ngân sách c a m t th i k nh ng m ngân sách Thâm h t ngân sách t ng th x nh ng h p thu ngân sách ng h Thâm h t (th c l i th ng thu ngân sách. .. cách khác thâm h t ngân sách s gi m xu ng Th ba, thâm h t ngân sách ch ng c a h th ng sách m, m c tiêu, nhi m v phát tri n kinh t - xã h i t ng th i k Chi ngân sách (và thâm h t ngân sách) m t