trình bày tổng quan về nợ công của việt nam từ năm 2010 2020 và đề xuất giải pháp quản lý công trong thời gian tới

Continue to strengthen public debt management in the coming time...14Figure 1: Illustration national debt...6Figure 2: Illustration debt...7Figure 3: Workshop on Business and Trade Coope

KHOA TÀI CHÍNH- NGÂN HÀNG

BÁO CÁO CUỐI KỲ

MÔN: KINH TẾ VĨ MÔ TRÌNH BÀY TỔNG QUAN VỀ NỢ CÔNG CỦA VIỆT NAM TỪ NĂM 2010-2020 VÀ ĐỀ XUẤT GIẢI PHÁP QUẢN LÝ CÔNG

TRONG THỜI GIAN TỚI

Nhóm: 07

Lớp: Thứ 5, ca 2

Khóa: 25

GVHD: Trần Mạnh Kiên

Nguyễn Trần Hoàng Yến – B21H0384

Hồ Nguyễn Khánh Dung – B21H0290 Nguyễn Phước Thọ - 721H0709 Nguyễn Quang Nhật – B21H0085

Table of Contents

1 The situation of Vietnam’s public debt : 4

1.1 Task definition: 4

1.2 Vietnam's public debt situation: 4

1.3 The benefits of public debt: 6

2 Compare Vietnam's public debt situation compared to other countries in the region 8

2.1.Which countries do Vietnam owe public debt? 11

3 Proposing solutions to Vietnam's public debt in the coming time: 12

3.1 The problems raised 12

3.2 Continue to strengthen public debt management in the coming time 14

Figure 1: Illustration national debt 6

Figure 2: Illustration debt 7

Figure 3: Workshop on Business and Trade Cooperation 7

Figure 4: Vietnam's public debt ratio compared to Asian countries 8

Figure 5: Vietnam's growth rate and budget deficit 2000-2016 9

Figure 6: Vietnam's public debt situation 10

Figure 7: Vietnam's public debt situation compared to developing countries 11

Figure 8: References 16

Figure 9: Bảng phân công nhiệm vụ 17

“ In recent decades, Vietnam's economy has experienced many market fluctuations In order to generate large profits and maintain a strong market position in a dynamic and fiercely competitive market economy, not only enterprises but also economists must quickly approach and comprehend the new

economy's difficulties

The public debt position in Vietnam is one of the dilemmas that requires attention and concentration nowadays The concept of national debt is somewhat complicated However, most contemporary models presume that public debt is a debt As a result, the word "public debt" is frequently used interchangeably with terms like "state debt" or "government debt." However, public debt is not the same

as national debt National debt is a country's total.”

1 The situation of Vietnam’s public debt :

1.1 Task definition:

Public debt, also known as government debt or national debt, is the total value of money borrowed by national governments at all levels from central to local This borrowing is for the purpose of financing short-term loans in banks, in other words, government loans are short-term loans in potential banks up to a certain point in time To visualize the size of government debt, it is common to measure this debt as a percentage of gross national product GDP

According to the Law on Public Debt Management 2017, public debt includes:

Government debt is a debt arising from domestic and foreign loans, signed and issued in the name of the State, in the name of the Government

Government-guaranteed debt is a debt guaranteed by enterprises and the State Bank for policies

Local government debt is a debt incurred by the People's Committee of the province

(Clause 1, 2, 3, Article 3 of the Law on Work Management 2017)

1.2 Vietnam's public debt situation:

The public debt of the nation in 2021 is already low in comparison to many prior years and is well below the National Assembly-allowed maximum of 60%

of GDP, which helps to ease strain on the budget

Vietnam's public debt would be 43.1% of GDP in 2021, according to the Ministry of Finance's Public Debt Bulletin, which was just released The national public debt is roughly 3.65 trillion VND, (nearly 156 billion USD),

with the GDP size of 2021 exceeding 8.47 trillion VND or more than 366 billion USD

In 2017, the public debt ratio was 61.4% of GDP, which is currently significantly lower than it was five years before The current percentage is much lower than the Ministry of Finance's earlier prediction that by the end of

2021, public debt will be roughly 46.1% of adjusted GDP

The overall judgment is that Vietnam has steadily changed the terms of its debt in order to increase domestic borrowing In absolute terms, with 98.51 million people in Vietnam in 2021, each person is bearing roughly 37 million VND in public debt, which is equivalent to 2020 However, this outcome is positive when contrasted to the prior prediction that the public debt would rise

to almost 40 million VND/person

*At the time of the COVID pandemic:

The public debt condition of countries considerably worsens between 2019 and 2021:

However, in Vietnam, the National Assembly does not have a policy to use public debt to pay for addressing the Covid-19 epidemic's effects in 2020 and

2021, the total money the government can mobilize for this can only be roughly 2% of GDP because the budget deficit targets for 2020 and 2021 are 3.44% of GDP and 4% of GDP, respectively In the three years of 2019, 2020, and 2021, Vietnam's public debt has essentially not altered (0,2% GDP)

1.3 The benefits of public debt:

Figure 1: Illustration national debt

In the short term, public debt is one of the best ways for a country to raise its investment funds for economic growth Furthermore, public debt is a safe method for residents in another country to invest in the economic growth of another one by buying government bonds

This encourages people to spend more now instead of saving for retirement This spending further boosts economic growth

Government debt can also help build a countries credit and be used by a central bank to conduct monetary policy Furthermore, government debt can finance spending to deal with national emergency like a war or major economic crisis Finally, government debt can be useful as a liquid asset for the public to hold

Figure 2: Illustration debt

When being used in a right way, public dept can improve the quality life of a country It allow government to build material facilities, enhance the education and the opportunity of hiring job

VietNam ( with public dept ) will get the assistants from International financial institutions by making the Bilateral Trade

Figure 3: Workshop on Business and Trade Cooperation

Ex : For 10 years ( from 2001-2010 ), GDP of Vietnam raised three times, from

32,7 billion USD ( 2001 ) to 102 billion USD ( 2010 )

2 Compare Vietnam's public debt situation compared to other countries in the region

Citing IMF data – World Economic Outlook (WEO) in the first quarter economic report just released, The Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) said that compared to some ASEAN countries, Vietnam has a much higher ratio of public debt to GDP

Vietnam's public debt is one and a half times as high as many countries in the region such as Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia However, in terms of GDP growth in 2015, Vietnam has a higher growth rate than these countries, only after Cambodia

Figure 4: Vietnam's public debt ratio compared to Asian countries

More significantly, according to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in this group of countries, Vietnam is the only country whose public debt-to-GDP ratio continues to rise to nearly 68% of GDP in 2020

Meanwhile, from now to 2020, some countries such as Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia are expected to drastically reduce public debt Even in Myanmar, public debt has fallen sharply since 2011 and is expected to increase only slightly in the following years

In terms of state budget deficit, compared to some countries in the region, Vietnam has a much larger deficit

Specifically, according to the calculation of IMF – World Economic Outlook (WEO), in 2015, Vietnam's state budget deficit amounted to 6.9% of GDP Meanwhile, Thailand's is 1.2% of GDP, Indonesia's is 2.3% of GDP, that of the

Philippines is 0.12% of GDP and Cambodia's is 2% of GDP.

Figure 5: Vietnam's growth rate and budget deficit 2000-2016

According to WEO forecasts, although Vietnam's state budget deficit tends

to decrease in the coming years, by 2020, Vietnam's overspending compared to GDP is still much higher than similar countries in ASEAN

Ciem (Central Institute for Economic Management) said that because the ratio of Vietnam's public debt to GDP is quite high and much higher than many countries

in the region, so Vietnam's external debt is also considered to be riskier

Vietnam's public debt increased rapidly in the period 2011-2015, from 50.1% of GDP to 62.2% of GDP, approaching the limit of 65% as prescribed by the Law on Public Debt Management 2015 was also the year when the Government's outstanding debt reached 50.3%

Figure 6: Vietnam's public debt situation

By the end of 2016, public debt was estimated to have reached 63.7% of GDP With a continuous growth rate of about 5% per year as in the period 2011-2016, the public debt ceiling of 65% of GDP set by the National Assembly is likely to be broken in the near future

Citing data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the VEPR research team said, compared to the rest of the countries in the region as well as compared to emerging and developing countries in the world, Vietnam's public debt/GDP ratio has increased sharply, from the lowest position in the period from 2000 to 2005 to the top in 2016 with public debt estimated at 60.7% of GDP

Figure 7: Vietnam's public debt situation compared to developing countries

Compared to the rest of the ASEAN region as well as compared to emerging and developing countries in the world, Vietnam's public debt-to-GDP ratio has increased sharply, from the lowest position in the period from 2000-2005 to the top

in 2016

2.1.Which countries do Vietnam owe public debt?

The country's foreign debt remained at 38.4% by the end of 2021, compared to 49% in 2017

While foreign debt decreased, domestic debt increased significantly, accounting for 67.2% of the government's outstanding debt, or $95 billion at the end of 2021 The country's foreign debt obligation increased slightly, by 6.8% of total export last year

According to the bulletin, Japan, South Korea, France, and Germany are Vietnam’s largest bilateral creditors As of 2021, Japan had lent $15.3 billion; South Korea ($1.36 billion) and France ($1.28 billion)

Topping the list of multilateral partners lending to Vietnam were the World Bank (WB), with $16.2 billion; and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) with $8.032 billion

3 Proposing solutions to Vietnam's public debt in the coming time:

With the drastic management of the Government, the management, mobilization and repayment of public debt, the Government in 2018 has achieved many positive results resolutions of the National Assembly and the Government on socio-economic development, financial planning and state budget estimates

3.1 The problems raised

On May 18, 2019, the Government reported on the assessment of the public debt situation in 2018, although the size of the Government debt portfolio

by the end of 2018 was well controlled at 50.0% GDP (compared to 52.7% in 2016; 51.7% in 2017), of which foreign debt accounted for 38.6%, domestic debt accounted for 61.4%.However, according to the Ministry of Finance's assessment, the cost-risk indicators of the Government debt portfolio, especially foreign debt, tend to be less favorable than before

Accordingly, the refinancing risk is concentrated on the Government's domestic debts due to the high concentration of due repayment obligations in a number of years (9.3% of the Government's domestic debt portfolio will come due next year) 2019; 32.7% will be due in the period of 2019-2021), potentially posing

a liquidity risk to the State budget

Particularly for the portfolio of domestic government bonds (Government bonds),

in the period of 2019-2021, the Government bond repayment obligation will focus

on certain times of the year and between the years 2020-2021; In addition, government bonds issued domestically in foreign currencies with a value of USD

1,700 million will mature in 2020 and 2021, foreign currencies must be arranged for payment

For the Government's foreign debt portfolio, donors have gradually adjusted development cooperation policies with Vietnam in the direction of gradually shifting from providing ODA to loans with less favorable conditions capital mobilization costs of some loans doubled compared to the previous period, thereby increasing the Government's foreign debt repayment obligation In the next

5 years, ODA loans will gradually decrease and come to an end, leading to a shortage of long-term, preferential loans for investment Instead, the Government needs to mobilize new loans with much less favorable conditions, close to the market to make up the shortfall in the state budget balance and medium-term public investment

In the context of forecasting that international capital market conditions will be tighter in the near future, the Government's foreign debt repayment obligation is likely to increase accordingly In general, the average interest rate on the Government's foreign debt remained low (2.0% per year as of December 31, 2018) due to over 96% of foreign loans with ODA and conditions endow For domestic debt, the weighted average interest rate of the debt portfolio as of the end

of 2018 was at 5.8%/year, significantly down from 6.6%/year in 2015 Over the past time When the market was favorable, the Ministry of Finance actively issued Government bonds with a term of over 10 years to restructure the Government debt portfolio towards a sustainable direction However, due to the small size of the bond market, while the financial potential of non-banking financial institutions is limited, it is relatively difficult to focus on issuing long-term government bonds In the coming time, the gradual shift to market-based mobilization (due to the lack of ODA and concessional loans) will also significantly increase the Government's risk

and cost of capital mobilization In addition, the failure to issue short-term government bonds of less than 5 years also leads to an incomplete standard yield curve and a lack of reference short-term interest rates for the capital market

3.2 Continue to strengthen public debt management in the coming time

According to the Government's report, based on the national public debt and foreign debt indexes in 2018, forecasting public debt indexes in 2019 and problems posed in the management of public debt and national debt In addition, in order to continue strengthening public debt management, the Government will continue to synchronously implement the following solutions:

Firstly, continue to drastically implement the direction and policies and

solutions to restructure the state budget, manage public debt in order to ensure a safe and sustainable national finance in Resolution No 07-NQ/TW dated November 18, 2016 of the Politburo and Resolution No 51/NQ-CP dated June 19,

2017 of the Government on the Government's Action Program to implement Resolution No 07-NQ/TW of the Politburo

, actively disseminate, propagate and train public debt management operations to relevant stakeholders

to ensure the correct, synchronous and effective implementation of the legal provisions on public debt management

Second

Third, collate, review, evaluate and summarize the borrowing needs of ministries, sectors, localities and units using public loans to forecast the total loan and repayment amount of the central budget, local budget, loan limit on on-lending and government guarantee limit after 2020; deploying proactive debt management