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BO GIAO DUC VA DAO TAO TRUONG DAI HOC KINHTE QUOC DAN fcm•oacQ PHAN TIEN NGOC TAC HONG CCJA DADANGHOAMATHANGXUATKHAUDENTANG TIRLYO'NG KINHTE VI ET NAM Chuyen nganh: Kinh 4 phat trien Ma so: 62.31.01.05 LUAN AN TIEN Si KINHTE Ngtrefi hwolig d&n khoa hoc: 1. PGS.TS PHAN THI NHItM 2. PGS.TS NGUYEN THI MINH HA NOI - 2014 LO'I CAM DOAN Toi xin cam loan day la cong trinh nghien cfru khoa hoc d6c lap dm toi. Cac thong tin, so lieu trong Juan an la trung thuc va co ngu6n g6c r6 rang cu the. Ket qua nghien ciru trong Juan an chua tong du9c cong 136 trong bat 14 cong trinh nghien cfru nao khac. Tic gia LOn an MUC LUC MUC LUC ii DANH MUC CAC BANG DANH MUC SO DO VA BIEU DO vi DANH MUC CAC Tif VIET TAT vii PHAN MO DAU viii CHIYONG 1: CO SO LY LUAN NGHIEN CfrU TAC BONG CUADADANGHOAMATHANGXUATKHAUDENTANG TRU'ONG KINHTE 1 1.1. Tang trtrerng kinh to va cac nhan to tic Ong 1 1.1.1. Khai niem tang trtramg kinh to 1 1.1.2. MOt so thtrac do thu nhap Aid tang twang kinh to chti yeti 2 1.1.3. Cac nhan to tac Ong tai tang truing kinh to 6 1.2. Cu sii , 15T luau ve dadonghoamathangxuat khan 11 1.2.1. Quan niem ve da clang h6a va tap trung h6a mathangxuat khan 11 1.2.2. Phan loci da clang h6a mathangxuatkhau 15 1.2.3. Do hieing da clang h6a mathangxuatkhau 17 1.2.4. Cac yeti to anh huong denda clang h6a mathangxuatkhau 22 1.3.Co . s& khoa hoc nghien cum tac &Ong da (long hoamathangxuat khan dentang truirng kinh to 31 1.3.1. Ca so . 1y thuyet ve tac Ong cuada clang h6a mathangxuatkhau doi vai tang truth - 1g kinh to 31 1.3.2. Kenh tacdOng cda dadanghoamathangxuatkhaudentang truang kinh to 39 1.3.3. TOng quan nghien thu thuc nghiem tac , dOngcuada clang hoamathangxuatkhaudentang truang kinh to 41 1.3.4. MO hinh va gia thiet nghien thu 49 CHIYONG 2: THI1C TRANG DADANGHOAMATHANGXUATKHAUCUAVIETNAM GIAI DOAN 1991-2011 54 2.1. Tling quan xuat khan ciia VietNam giai down 1991-2011 54 2.1.1. Quy mO va t6c dO tangtruongxuat khdu 54 2.1.2. Ca call mathangxuatkhau 56 2.1.3. Co can xuatkhau phan theo khu vuc kinh to 58 2.1.4. Ca cau thi truOngxuatkhau 60 2.2. Phan tich thtyc trong dadonghOamathangxuat klAu dm VietNam 65 ii 2.2.1. Phan tich dadang h6a dua tren th6ng ke s6 luting chfing loci mathang 65 2.2.2. Phan tich da clang hoa dua tren chi s6 Herfindahl (HI) 66 2.2.3. Phan tich da clang hoa dua tren ty trong xuatkhAu san ph'am ch'e bien 68 2.2.4. Phan tich da clang h6a dtra tren chi s6 Theil Etropy 73 2.2.5. Phan tich da clang Ma lgi the so sanh cua cac mathangxuatkhau 75 2.3. Dinh gii chung ve da d#ng hoamathangxuatkhAucua WO Nam 78 2.3.1. Nhung mat tich ctrc 78 2.3.2. Nhang han che, thach fink 80 2.3.3. Cac nguyen nhan anh huang denda clang h6a mathangxuatkhau dia. VietNam 81 CHVONG 3: DANH GIA TAC BONG CUADADANGHOAMATHANGXUATKHAUDENTANG TRIXCING KINHTE VIVT NAM 87 3.1. T6ng quan tang trusEeng kinh t6 Vqt Nam 87 3.1.1. Quy mo va t6c dO tang truang chung cua nen kinh to 87 3.1.2. Quy mo va t6c dO tang truang cua cac nganh 90 3.2. Phan tich dinh tinh tacc r dOng da d#ng h6a mathangxuatkhAudentang trtromg kinh t o WO Nam 94 3.2.1. M6i quan he giaa da clang h6a chung 14 mathangxuatkhau va tang truang kinh to 94 3.2.2. M6i quan he gifia chi s6 tap trung hoamathangxuatkhau Herfindahl va tang twang kinh to 96 3.2.3. M6i quan he glib chi so da clang h6a mathangxuatkhau Theil Etropy va tang truang kinh to 99 3.2.4. Mo'i quan he gift tS71e san pham ch'e bien xuatkhau va tang truang kinh to 100 3.2.5. M6i quan he giita da clang h6a lgi the so sanh va tang twang kinh to 101 3.3. Phan tich dinh luvng tac Ong cuadadanghoamathangxuat khan dentang tru6ng kinh to WO Nam 103 3.3.1. Vai net ve mo hinh va phuang phap uac luting 103 3.3.2. MO to cac bien va so lieu 106 3.3.3. Dinh lugng mo hinh va phan tich ket qua 108 3.4. Danh gia chung tac Ong cuada d#ng hoamathangxuat khan d6n tang truomg kinh to VI* Nam 120 iii CHU'ONG 4: DINH HIJONG DADANGHOAMATHANGXUATKHAU VA CAC GIAI PHAP THVC HItN NHAM THUC DAY TANG TRIfoNG KINHTEVIETNAM 125 4.1. Can co' dinh huovg da d#ng h6a mathangxuatkhau dm VietNamdennam 2020, tam nhin 2030 125 4.1.1. Xu the phat trien dia nen kinh to toan cau tacdOng tad da clang h6a mathangxuatkhau trong thoi gian toi 125 4.1.2. Dinh huOng chien ltr9c phat trien kinh to VietNamdennam 2020 129 4.1.3. Dinh huang chuyen dOi mo hinh tang twang kinh to cilia VietNam 130 4.1.4. Dinh huang xuatkhau ciia VietNam 131 4.2. Quan diem ya dinh hu&ng thtfc hien da d4ng hoamathangxuatkhaudennam 2020, tam nhin 2030 133 4.2.1. Quan diem thuc hien da clang h6a mathangxuatkhau 133 4.2.2. Dinh huong thuc hien da clang hoamathangxuatkhau nham thuc day tang truang kinh to VietNam 135 4.3. MCA so giai phap thkre hien da d4ng hoamathangxuatkhAu nhim thuc day tang truing kinh to VietNam 139 4.3.1. Giai phap xac dinh va hinh thanh danh muc mathangxuatkhau mui nh9n de da clang hoa theo chieu sau 139 4.3.2. Giai phap ve dau to thuc hien da clang hOamathangxuatkhau 141 4.3.3. Giai phap nang cao chat luvng ngtiOn nhan luc dap irng yeu cau dadang h6a mathangxuatkhau 144 4.3.4. Giai phap phat trien khoa hoc cong nghe nham dadanghoamathangxuatkhau 145 4.3.5. Giai phap phat trien cong nghiephO trg nham thuc hien da clang h6a mathangxuatkhau 147 4.3.6. Giai phap ve tai chinh, tin dung nham da clang hoamathangxuatkhau 149 4.3.7. Giai phap hoan thien co the chinh sach quan 1Y va dieu hanh xuatkhau 150 4.3.8. Giai phap xfic lien thuang mai thuc hien da clang h6a mathangxuatkhau 153 KET LUNN 155 DANH MIJC CAC CONG TRINH CUATAC GIA 157 DANH Ml(JC TAI LIEU THAM KHAO 158 PHLJ IAJC 167 iv DANH MUC CAC BANG Bang 2.1: Co cau mg hangxuatkhau dm V* Nam giai doan 1995-2011 57 Bang 2.2: Ca cdu xuatkhau phan theo khu vuc kinh to giai doan 2000-2011 59 Bang 2.3: Cac thi trung xuatkhauhang h6a leen nhat cila V* Nam 62 Bang 2.4: Chi s6 tap trung h6a mathangxuatkhau Herfindahl cua cac nuac can Saharan va Bong A 67 Bang 2.5: He s6 Mang quan hang Spearman dOi vai chi s6 PRODY va RCA 72 Bang 2.6: Da clang hoa giita cac nh6m hang va dadang h6a trong not 116 nh6m hang 74 Bang 3.1: Gia tri san xuat va t6c dO tang truang cua cac nh6m nganh kinh to o V* Nam 90 Bang 3.2: 1(6t qua ki6m dinh tinh citing cua cac bin so trong mo hinh 108 Bang 3.3: K6t qua u6 . c lugng tac &Ong cuada clang h6a mathangxuatkhAu d6n tang truang GDP 109 Bang 3.4: Kim dinh m6i quan he nhan qua Granger giaa da clang h6a mg hangxuatkhau voi lao &Ong va dau tu 111 Bang 3.5: K6t qua ware lugng tac &Ong cuada clang h6a theo chi'eu rOng dentangtruong GDP 1 1 6 Bang 3.6: K6t qua uac luting tacdOngcuada clang h6a theo chi"au sau d6n tang trugng GDP 117 Bang 3.7: Kim dinh m6i quan he nhan qua Granger Oita da clang hoamathangxuatkhAu voi lao dOng va dau tu 118 DANH MUC SO DO VA BIEU DO So dO 1.1: MO hinh tong cung, tang cdu cila nen kinh to 10 So dO 1.2: Quan niem ve da dpg h6a xuat khdu cila Alberto Amurgo-Pacheco va Martha Denisse Pierola (2008) 12 So do 1.3: Cac giai down da dpg h6a mathangxuat khdu 14 Bieu do 2.1: Tec dO tang tnrang xuat khdu, GDP va tST le XK/GDP 54 Bieu dO 2.2: Co cau mathangxuatkhaucuaVietNam thai kST 1991-2011 56 Bieu do 2.3: Co cAu xuat khdu phan theo khu vuc kinh to sau khi da tach xuat khdu dau tho 60 Bieu dO 2.4: Co cdu thi trung xuatkhAu cda VietNam 61 Bleu dO 2.5: Se luang chfing loci mathangxuat khdu cuaVietNam giai don 2001-2011 65 Bleu do 2.6: Chi so tap trung h6a mathangxuat khdu Herfindahi oda VietNam 67 Bleu do 2.7: Ty trong mathang the bien trong tong se mathangxuat khdutheo bang phan loci tieu chuan ngoai thuang 68 Bieu dO 2.8: Ti S trong ham Wong ding nghe trong cac mathang the bien XK 70 Bleu dO 2.9: Mdc dO phirc tap hay nang sudt cua giO hanghoaxuatkhAuVietNam 71 Bleu dO 2.10: Chi se PRODY cac nhom hangxuat khdu dia. VietNam 73 Bleu do 2.11: Chi se da dpg boa mathangxuat khdu Theil Etropy 74 Bieu dO 2.12: SO lugng chi:mg 14 mathang c6 RCA cao cuaVietNam 76 Bieu dO 2.13: Thay d6i co cdu lgi the so sanh theo nhom hang 77 Bleu dO 2.14: Thay doi co cAn l q i the so sanh theo ham lugng khoa hoc-cong nghe 78 Bleu dO 3.1: Tiic dO tang truing kinh to VietNam 1991-2011 87 Bi4u dO 3.2: Da dpg hoa chi:mg lo4i mathangxuat khdu va kim ng4ch xuatkhau cila VietNam 95 13C4u do 3.3: Da dpg hoa chung 14 mathangxuat khdu va tec dO tang GDP cda VietNam 96 Bi6'u dO 3.4: Chi so tap trung hoa Herfindahi va tang truing kinh t6 97 Bieu dO 3.5: 1\46i quan he gida chi se Herfindahi va tang truing kinh to cua Malaixia va Thai Lan 98 Bleu do 3.6: Mei quan he gida chi se Herfindahi va tang truing kinh to cila Chile va Uganda 98 Bleu dO 3.7: Chi se) da dqng hoamathangxuat khdu Theil Etropy va tang truing kinh to 100 Bieu dO 3.8: Ty le hang xudt khdu the bien va tang truing kinh t6 101 Bieu dO 3.9: Ty le mathangxuat khdu c6 lgi the so sanh hien him va tang truing kinh t6 102 Bleu dO 3.10: Phan dng cda tang truing GDP tnroc cac cu shock 114 Bleu dO 3.11: Phan img cda GDP truck cac cu shock tir da d4ng boa theo chieu rOng va chieu sau 119 vi DANH MUC CAC Tir VIET TAT ASEAN Hiep hOi cac nu& DongNam A ARDL Tr6 phan phi to h6i quy BCHTW Ban chap hanh Trung uong BTA Hiep dinh thuang mai song phuang vai Hoa Ky ED Da clang h6a mathangxuatkhau EU Lien minh chau Au HED Da clang h6a mathangxuatkhau theo chieu rOng HO Ly thuyet Hecksher-Ohlin HI Chi s6 tap trung h6a Herfindhal HS He th6ng thuang mai hai hem GDP T6ng san pham qu6c not GMM Phuang phap momen tong quat GSO T6ng cvc th6ng ke IMF Quy" tien to qu6c to FDI Dau to truc tiep nu& ngodi M2 Cung tin M2 NIEs Cac nen kinh t6 mgi not OLS Phuang phap binh phuong nho nhat RCA Lai the so sanh hien him SITC Phan loci thuang mai chuan qu6c t SNA He th6ng tai khoan qu6c gia TheilT Chi so Theil Etropy TFP Nang suat cac nhan to tong hgp USD DO la My UN Lien hgp qu6c VAR MO hinh vec to to h6i quy VECM MO hinh vec to hieu chinh sai s6 VED Da clang hOamathangxuatkhau theo chi'eu sau WB Ngan hang the giai WTO T6 chirc thuang mai the giai XK Xuatkhau vii PHAN MO DAU 1. Tinh cap thitt ctia cue tai Trong lich sir phat trien kinh to hoc, m6i quan he gifia xuatkhAu va tang truang kinh to la chit de dugc nghien cdu tir rat sam va nhanh chong thu but &mg dao nhieu hoc gia not tieng. Ngay tir tiled Adam Smith (1723-1790), trong the phAm not tieng "nguein g6c su giAu c6 cua cac dan t8c", A.Smith da" nhAn manh tam quan tong cua viec xuatkhAuhang h6a nhu mot nhan to san xuat gia tri thong du, va la mot phuong tin de ma Ong thi truang, dong thai gOp phAn cai thien phan cong lao Ong va nang cao nang su'At lao dOng [1]. Ke tir dO den nay, d5c biet tir nhang nom 1960s tra lai day, to do h6a thuang mai, thgc hien chinh sach huang ngoai va tittle dAy xuatkhAu duqc coi la d8ng luc phat trien cita nen kinhte Tuy nhien tr'en thgc te, khong phai ntrac nao ding thgc hien thanh cong chiL lugc nay. Co mac thgc hien kha thanh cong chiL lugc tang twang duo vao xuatkhAu (cac nen kinhte moi not a Dong A NIEs), nhung cling c6 nhieu queic gia dang phat trien khac a Nam A, chau My latin lai thgc hien khong may thanh cong. Dieu nay (la dan den cu8c tranh luan soi not ve vai trO cuaxuatkhAu d6i \Ted tang truang kinh te. Va mot gia thiet dirge nhieu hoc gia d5t ra la: c6 le vai to cuaxuatkhAu d6i vai tang truang kinh to khong phai chi la quy mo, kh6i lugng xuat khAu, ma quan tong hart dO chinh la cL true r6 hanghoaxuatkhAu cita qu6c De lap Juan va chtng minh gia thiet nay, cac truang phai ly7 thuyet d5 di sau tim hieu cau true re) hang h6a xuatkhau va tac demg cila no dentang truang kinh te. Nhieu nghien cuu cho rang que)c gia cO cAu true r6 hang h6a xuat kh'Au da clang han se it bi ton thuang han truck nhung bier' Ong ye gia ca, nhu cAu cua thi truang the gied; nhang nuac c6 nhieu san phAm cite bien han, co ham luang khoa hoc cong nghe cao han se c6 lgi the han trong trao d6i buon ban Wei nhung nuac chit yeu xuatkhAu cac mathang the), sa che, tham dung lao d8ng 016 thong. Chinh vi vay, nhieu nguai ggi )'7 rang cac qu6c gia dang phat trien nen ma remg san xuat nhieu chi:mg loci san phAm xuat khAu, da clang h6a co cL mathangxuatkhAu de giant thieu nhang the Ong tieu cgc do str bien demg ve thi truang, d'ong thai gop phAn cai thien he s6 trao doi thuang mai (terms of trade), tat) hieu Ung lan too, nang cao gia tri hangxuatkhAu thong qua da clang hoa theo chieu sau. Viet Nam-m8t que)c gia dang phat trien a DongNam A, ngay sau khi tin hanh d6i mai nen kinhte (1986), Bang va Nha nuac da chit truong thgc hien chien lugc phat trien kinhte huang manh ye xuat khAu. Van kin Doi he)i Bai bieu toan queic ran thir VI kh'ang dinh: cong cu8c de)i mai truck mat phai "tap trung sire ngtr61, sic cua vao viec thy'c hien cho &rat. ba chtrang trinh myc tieu ve hrang thvc-thtrc ph ' am, hang viii tieu dung va hangxuat nhap khau "[2]. Tiep do, tai 116i nghl Dai h6i dai bieu toan qu6c Oita nhiemlkhoa VII, Dang va nha nuac da xac dinh, ltra chgn chien lugc phat trien kinh to "htrang manh ve xuat khau, clang theft thay the nhap khau bang nhfrng san pham trong nu& san xuat c6 hi eu qua "[2]. ChiL lugc nay tiep tvc dugc quan triet trong cac l(ST Dai lt6i VIII, IX, X va (lac biet Dai h6i dai bieu toan qu6c lAn thi.r XI nhAn manh: "Day manh va khuyen khich xuat khau, dac biet la &tang mathang moi, san pham the bien, ch'j tao cc; ham luvng khoa hoc cong nghe cao, gia tri gia tang cao; giam manh xuatkhau nguyen lieu, khoang san, san pham tho."[2]. Thuc hien chic truang do, sau km 27 nam dai mad, hog Ong xuAtkhaucua nu& to da dat dugc nhang nhang thanh tqu rat dang khich le. Quy ma kim ngach xuAtkhAunam 2012 tang hon 145 lAn so vai nam 1986. XuAtkhAu binh quan dAu nguai tang tir 11,7 USD/nguai nam 1985, len 393,8 USD nam 2005 va dat 1306 USD nam 2012. Co cAu mathangxuAtkhAu co nhang chuyen bien tich cgc. San phAm xuAtkhAu ngay cang dadang va phong phu hon. Ben canh nhang mathang khoang san, nong san xuAt kh'Au, ngay nay daxuAt hien ngay cang nhieu mathangxuatkhAu mai nhu: 'tong san the bien, det may, da giAy, may mac, thiet b] diL, dien tir Qua trinh dadang h6a mathangxuAtkhAu do da g6p phAn dem lai nhirng thuan led de nen kinh t6 tang truang nhanh va on dinh trong nhang nam qua. Tuy nhien, nhin tong the co cAu xuAtkhAucuaVietNam van chn y'eu la cac mathang co ngu6n g6c tir tai nguyen thien nhi'en, gia cong xuAt khAu, gia tri gia tang thAp. Nhang mathang nay co dac diem la: d6 co gian cua cAu theo thu nhap thAp; gia ca thuang co xu twang giam trong tuong quan vai gia ca cua cac mathang the bien, chlu nhieu "thua thiet" trong quan he trao d6i qu6c te, va lam tang nguy co can kiet tai nguyen. Han 'lira, do tap trung vao nhung nhom mathang nay nen tang truang xuAtkhAucuaVietNam khong on dinh, phu thu6c fat lan vao gia ca, nhu cAu th] truemg, chinh sach thuang mai qu6c to cua cac d6i tac [10], [44]. Thirc t6 do dat ra mot van de can nghien ciru do la: lieu ca cau mathangxuatkhaucuaVietNam CO thtrc str da clang hay khong? n'ju co thi xu &rang da clang h6a nhu. the nao? mire do da clang bao nhieu? va str da clang h6a do anh luro.ng nhtr the nao dentang trtro.ng kinh t J e? Tra lai nhang cau lied do clang chinh la gop phAn xem xet lai vai tn . ) cuaxuAt khAu, dac biet la co cAu mathangxuAtkhAu d6i vai tang truang kinh to VietNam trong thai gian qua; d6ng thai la co sa de cac nha hoach dinh chinh sach tai co cAu mathangxuAtkhAu nham dam bao tang truang nhanh va ben \Tang cua nen kinh to theo con duang thfic day xuat khau. Xuat phat tix nhang 17 do tren, nghien ciru sinh chon de tai: "Ttic d'Ong cuada dyng h6a melt hangxuat din tang tru'O'ng kinh to Viet Nam" lam luan an nghien cfru cua minh. ix [...]... truang kinh t6 V* Nam Ngodi ra, trong met se nghien cfru ve hei nhap quec to cita VietNam nhu: Bao cao "Danh gia tac &Ong tong the khi VietNam tra thanh thanh vien cua WTO den thay doi xuat nhap khau va the che" cua Du an ho try chinh sach thuang mai da bien (MUTRAP); Bao cao "Mc deng cna hei nhap kinh t6 quec to doi vai nen kinh to sau ba namVietNam gia nhap WTO cna Vien Nghien cfru guar' 1)'T kinh. .. hangxuatkhaudentang twang kinh to VietNam Chuang 4: Dinh huang da clang h6a mathangxuatkhau va cac giai phap thuc hien nham thfic day tang truang kinh to VietNam xiv Chuang 1: CO SO LY LUNN NGHIEN Cf1t TAC BONG 0[U BA DANGHOAMATHANGXUATKHAU BEN TANGTRUONGKINHTE 1.1 TANG TRVONG KINHTE VA CAC NHAN TO TAC BONG 1.1.1 Khai niem tang trtdrng kinhte'Tang truang kinh to la mot trong nhfing... t6c d'6 tangtruongnam t Yt la GDP ho4c GNI thuc to nam t tinh theo gia nam co so Yt-i la GDP hoac GNI thuc t6 nam t-1 tinh theo gia nam co so Do luting teic d6 tangtruong binh quan cho ca tiled ky, dugc xac dinh bang cong thirc sau: d GDP = n-1 GDPn GDP° x 100 (1.7) Trong do: dGDP la t6c d6 tangtruong GDP binh quan cho ca tiled ky to nam g6c 0 d'6n nam thir n GDPn la GDP cu6i nam thir n cua thai... d4ng hoa mit • tfingirtning kinh to Viet Nam, Phiro'ng phap nghien cfru dinh luvng: (Mo hinh vec to to hoi quy VAR) Nghien cull cac dinh hweeng phat trial chung ciia WO Nam Nghien cum xu the Oat trien cila n en kinh to toil' au •• I • V A A quan them, dinh htthng va giai phi") thin hien da 4ng hoamat X xuat X X A hangxuat khan nham thtle day tang truirng kinh to vqt Nam 6 Y nghia khoa hoc va time... clang h6a mathangxuatkhaudentang truang kinh to VietNam Oa tren mo hinh vec to to hOi quy VAR Kat qua nghien thu dinh luting cho thay dadanghoamathangxuatkhau co anh huang tich cue dentang truang kinh t6 VietNam ca trong ngan han va dai han Dang chu Y, ca clang h6a mathangxuatkhau theo chieu sau va theo chieu rOng deu thfic day tang truang kinhte Tuy nhien da clang Ma mathang xuat... tang twang kinh to nhanh va ben \rang theo con duang thfic day xuatkhau cila VietNam trong nhang nam 7 Kk cAu ciia 1u4n an Ngodi phan ma dau, kat luAn, danh muc tai lieu tham khao, plw Luc, luan an gOm 4 chuong Cu the nhu sau: Chuang 1: Ca sa ly luan nghien ciru tac &Ong cuada clang h6a mathangxuatkhaudentang truang kinh t Chnong 2: Thuc trang da clang hoamathangxuatkhAucuaVietNam giai... khaudentang twang kinhte - Phan tich, danh gia mirc 0, xu huong da clang hoamathangxuatkhau cna VietNam tir dei mai den nay - Danh gia tac &Ong cna da clang hoamathangxuatkhau cl6n tang truang kinh t6 VietNam trong tiled gian qua xi - De xuat dinh huang va mat s6 giai phap thuc hien da clang hoamathangxuatkhau nham dam bao tang truang nhanh va ben \Tang cda nen kinhte theo con duang... dang h6a mathangxuatkhau cna VietNam Tuy nhien nhung nghien dm nay chi xem xet tac deng cna hei nhap kinh t6 qu6c to denda clang h6a mathangxuatkhau chu khong trvc tier, phan tich mire 0, xu twang da clang h6a mathangxuatkhau dm VietNam Han nib, cac nghien ciru tren ding chua xem xet tac &Ong cda da clang hoamathangxuatkhaudentang truang kinh to VietNam Do do viec nghien cfru da clang... binh quan dau ngtr6i Chi khi mot nen kinh t6 co sty vuot tr6i ctia gia tang GDP so vai tangtruong dan s6 thi n'en kinh t6 do mai co tangtruong thu nhap binh quan dau ngtred, hay not each khac, nguai dan cna nuac do mai c6 su tangtruong ve thu nhap 5 1.1.3 Cac nhan to tacdOng toi tang tru*ng kinh to Tang truang kinh to la yau to quan trong nhat quy dinh phfic lgi kinh t6 cua nguai dan moi qu6c gia... dieu tiet nen kinh t6 Buac sang the kSt XX, lehiing hoang kinhte the giai dien ra nghiem tr9ng (thai kS7 1929-1933) dot cho thay cac ly7 thuyet ye tang truang kinh to truac day chua thyc six phan anh day du v'e nguyen nhan tang truang kinh t6 John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) yeti tac pharn "1_,y thuyet chung ve viec lam, lai suat va tien te" dot danh dau sly ra dei cua mot truang phai kinh to hoc mod . chien ltr9c phat trien kinh to Viet Nam den nam 2020 129 4.1.3. Dinh huang chuyen dOi mo hinh tang twang kinh to cilia Viet Nam 130 4.1.4. Dinh huang xuat khau ciia Viet Nam 131 4.2. Quan. HANG XUAT KHAU DEN TANG TRIXCING KINH TE VIVT NAM 87 3.1. T6ng quan tang trusEeng kinh t6 Vqt Nam 87 3.1.1. Quy mo va t6c dO tang truang chung cua nen kinh to 87 3.1.2. Quy mo va t6c. (MUTRAP); Bao cao "Mc deng cna hei nhap kinh t6 quec to doi vai nen kinh to sau ba nam Viet Nam gia nhap WTO cna Vien Nghien cfru guar' 1)'T kinh to Trung tieing cling da tinh toan,