Tiểu luận tác động đa dạng hóa mặt hàng xuất khẩu đến tăng trưởng kinh tế

PHAN MO DAU Tinh cap thitt ctia cue tai Trong lich sir phat trien kinh to hoc, m6i quan he gifia xuat khAu va tang truang kinh to la chit de dugc nghien cdu tir rat sam va nhanh chong thu but &mg dao nhieu hoc gia not tieng Ngay tir tiled Adam Smith (1723-1790), the phAm not tieng "nguein g6c su giAu c6 cua cac dan t8c", A.Smith da" nhAn manh tam quan tong cua viec xuat khAu hang h6a nhu mot nhan to san xuat gia tri thong du, va la mot phuong tin de ma Ong thi truang, dong thai gOp phAn cai thien phan cong lao Ong va nang cao nang su'At lao dOng [1] Ke tir dO den nay, d5c biet tir nhang nom 1960s tra lai day, to h6a thuang mai, thgc hien chinh sach huang ngoai va tittle dAy xuat khAu duqc coi la d8ng luc phat trien cita nen kinh te Tuy nhien tr'en thgc te, khong phai ntrac nao ding thgc hien cong chiL lugc Co mac thgc hien kha cong chiL lugc tang twang duo vao xuat khAu (cac nen kinh te moi not a Dong A NIEs), nhung cling c6 nhieu queic gia dang phat trien khac a Nam A, chau My latin lai thgc hien khong may cong Dieu (la dan den cu8c tranh luan soi not ve vai trO cua xuat khAu d6i \Ted tang truang kinh te Va mot gia thiet dirge nhieu hoc gia d5t la: c6 le vai to cua xuat khAu d6i vai tang truang kinh to khong phai chi la quy mo, kh6i lugng xuat khAu, ma quan tong hart dO chinh la cL true r6 hang hoa xuat khAu cita qu6c De lap Juan va chtng minh gia thiet nay, cac truang phai ly7 thuyet d5 di sau tim hieu cau true re) hang h6a xuat khau va tac demg cila no den tang truang kinh te Nhieu nghien cuu cho rang que)c gia cO cAu true r6 hang h6a xuat kh'Au da clang han se it bi ton thuang han truck nhung bier' Ong ye gia ca, nhu cAu cua thi truang the gied; nhang nuac c6 nhieu san phAm cite bien han, co ham luang khoa hoc cong nghe cao han se c6 lgi the han trao d6i buon ban Wei nhung nuac chit yeu xuat khAu cac mat hang the), sa che, tham dung lao d8ng 016 thong Chinh vi vay, nhieu nguai ggi )'7 rang cac qu6c gia dang phat trien nen ma remg san xuat nhieu chi:mg loci san phAm xuat khAu, da clang h6a co cL mat hang xuat khAu de giant thieu nhang the Ong tieu cgc str bien demg ve thi truang, d'ong thai gop phAn cai thien he s6 trao doi thuang mai (terms of trade), tat) hieu Ung lan too, nang cao gia tri hang xuat khAu thong qua da clang hoa theo chieu sau Viet Nam-m8t que)c gia dang phat trien a Dong Nam A, sau tin hanh d6i mai nen kinh te (1986), Bang va Nha nuac da chit truong thgc hien chien lugc phat trien kinh te huang manh ye xuat khAu Van kin Doi he)i Bai bieu toan queic ran thir VI kh'ang dinh: cong cu8c de)i mai truck mat phai "tap trung sire ngtr61, sic cua vao viec thy'c hien cho &rat ba chtrang trinh myc tieu ve hrang thvc-thtrc ph a' m, hang viii tieu dung va hang xuat nhap khau "[2] Tiep do, tai 116i nghl Dai h6i dai bieu toan qu6c Oita nhiemlkhoa VII, Dang va nha nuac da xac dinh, ltra chgn chien lugc phat trien kinh to "htrang manh ve xuat khau, clang theft thay the nhap khau bang nhfrng san pham nu& san xuat c6 hi eu qua "[2] ChiL lugc tiep tvc dugc quan triet cac l(ST Dai lt6i VIII, IX, X va (lac biet Dai h6i dai bieu toan qu6c lAn thi.r XI nhAn manh: "Day manh va khuyen khich xuat khau, dac biet la &tang mat hang moi, san pham the bien, ch'j tao cc; ham luvng khoa hoc cong nghe cao, gia tri gia tang cao; giam manh xuat khau nguyen lieu, khoang san, san pham tho."[2] Thuc hien chic truang do, sau km 27 nam dai mad, hog Ong xuAt khau cua nu& to da dat dugc nhang nhang tqu rat dang khich le Quy ma kim ngach xuAt khAu nam 2012 tang hon 145 lAn so vai nam 1986 XuAt khAu binh quan dAu nguai tang tir 11,7 USD/nguai nam 1985, len 393,8 USD nam 2005 va dat 1306 USD nam 2012 Co cAu mat hang xuAt khAu co nhang chuyen bien tich cgc San phAm xuAt khAu cang da dang va phong phu hon Ben canh nhang mat hang khoang san, nong san xuAt kh'Au, da xuAt hien cang nhieu mat hang xuat khAu mai nhu: 'tong san the bien, det may, da giAy, may mac, thiet b] diL, dien tir Qua trinh da dang h6a mat hang xuAt khAu da g6p phAn dem lai nhirng thuan led de nen kinh t6 tang truang nhanh va on dinh nhang nam qua Tuy nhien, nhin tong the co cAu xuAt khAu cua Viet Nam van chn y'eu la cac mat hang co ngu6n g6c tir tai nguyen thien nhi'en, gia cong xuAt khAu, gia tri gia tang thAp Nhang mat hang co dac diem la: d6 co gian cua cAu theo thu nhap thAp; gia ca thuang co xu twang giam tuong quan vai gia ca cua cac mat hang the bien, chlu nhieu "thua thiet" quan he trao d6i qu6c te, va lam tang nguy co can kiet tai nguyen Han 'lira, tap trung vao nhung nhom mat hang nen tang truang xuAt khAu cua Viet Nam khong on dinh, phu thu6c fat lan vao gia ca, nhu cAu th] truemg, chinh sach thuang mai qu6c to cua cac d6i tac [10], [44] Thirc t6 dat mot van de can nghien ciru la: lieu ca cau mat hang xuat khau cua Viet Nam CO thtrc str da clang hay khong? n'ju co thi xu &rang da clang h6a nhu the nao? mire da clang bao nhieu? va str da clang h6a anh luro.ng nhtr the nao den tang trtro.ng kinh te? J Tra lai nhang cau lied clang chinh la gop phAn xem xet lai vai tn.) cua xuAt khAu, dac biet la co cAu mat hang xuAt khAu d6i vai tang truang kinh to Viet Nam thai gian qua; d6ng thai la co sa de cac nha hoach dinh chinh sach tai co cAu mat hang xuAt khAu nham dam bao tang truang nhanh va ben \Tang cua nen kinh to theo duang thfic day xuat khau Xuat phat tix nhang 17 tren, nghien ciru sinh chon de tai: "Ttic d'Ong cua da dyng h6a melt hang xuat din tang tru'O'ng kinh to Viet Nam" lam luan an nghien cfru cua minh ix Tting quan tinh hinh nghien ciru co lien quan den 1u4n an Viet Nam, sau han 27 nom dei mai, hog deng xuat khau cUa nuac to da dot duqc nhung nhfing tuu rat An tuqng Mac du vAy, nhin tong the xuat khAu cua Viet Nam van tap trung, chu yau dtxa vao nhung mat hang the, sa cha, gia tri gia tang thap; mix de tham dung nhiau tai nguyen thien nhien va lao deng phe thong nen tang truang xuat khau cua Viet Nam khong on dinh, phu thuc fat lan vao gia ca, nhu cau cac dei tac Truck thuc t6 de, tren thi truang, chinh sach thuang mai quec nhiau phuang tien thong tin dal chfing van de "da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau" duqc da cap kha nhiau cac bai phong van, phat biau cua cac nha quan 1)"7 tren boo, dai Tuy nhien, nhung 3'7 kin de phan lan mai chi dirng lai a nhling nhan dinh mang tinh gqi ma ban dL va met huang nghien dru mai a Chinh vi vay, cho den se cac cong trinh nghien dm lien quan clan van a Viet Nam rat han cha Dang chu )"7 co cong trinh nghien cfru va Oat trian mat hang mai nhu: nghien cfru dm Nguyen Thi Thu Huang (2004) "Met se giai phap phat trien xuat khau mat hang mai dm Viet Nam bei canh hei nhAp kinh to pee t6", va nghien cfru cua Nguyen Hong Phong (2007) "Giai phap phat trian xuat khau mat hang mai cila Viet Nam thai gian tar Nhung nghien dm phan nao de cap clan van de da clang Ilea mat hang xuat khau, nhung each flap can chn yau xem xet tang thai tinh Tire la phan tich cac mat hang xuat khau mai duai gec de nhu la mot nhom san pham, chic khong phan tich la qua trinh ma reng, qua trinh da clang Ilea ca cau xuat khau cua Viet Nam Han nib, nhung nghien cdu de chi clang lai xem xet a gec de ma reng se luqng hang flea (tire da dang hoa theo chiau reng) ma chua xem xet den su thay doi cau true, chat lucmg re hang Ilea xuat khau cua Viet Nam Met se nghien cdu khac khong true tiap phan tich da clang Ilea mat hang xuat khau, nhung lai de cap den su chuyan dich ca cau san pharn xuat khau Dang chu y co nghien cfru cua Nguyen Hiru Khai (2007) "Danh gia thuc trang va dinh huang chuyan dich ca cau hang xuat khau Viet Nam thai kS7 2005 — 2015" va nghien cfru cda Bui Thuy VAn (2011) "Dau to true tip nuac ngoai (FDI) vai viac chuyan dich ca cau mat hang xuat kh'Au a viing Deng bang Bac be" Nhang nghien cfru danh gia su thay cfoi cau true re hang hoa xuat khau, chi( khong danh gia qua trinh da clang Ilea mat hang xuat kh'Au O khia canh nao de, six thay dei cau true la qua trinh da clang Ma, nhung cung co nhung thay doi cau true chua han la da dang flea ma ce lai tap trung hoa Gan day co met nghien cfru cua Nguyen Thi Minh Huang (2012) va "Da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau tir Viet Nam sang NhAt Ban" Day co the coi la met nhung nghien cuu dau tien ve da clang Ilea mat hang xuat khau a Viet Nam Nghien cfru da phan tich mix de da clang hoa cac mat hang xuat khau ciaa Viet Nam sang NhAt Ban giai doan 2001-2010 dva tren chi se Herfindahl va thong ke se luong chting loci mat hang xuat khau Tuy nhien, nghien cuu mai chi xem xet da clang h6a a met thi truang cu the, chua phan tich sir da clang hoa cac mat hang xuat khau cila Viet Nam Thvc to cho thay, dei vai met thi twang nao ca cat' mat hang xuat khau c6 the da dang hoa, nhung a tat ca cac thi truang thi chua chac ca call mat hang xuat khau cua Viet Nam duac da clang h6a Han nira, nghien ciru mai chi dirng lai a viec phan tich mirc de da dang 116a mat hang xuat khau theo chieu reng, chua phan tich muc va xu twang da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau theo chieu sau Dac biet, nghien ciru chua xem xet anh huang cna da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh t6 V* Nam Ngodi ra, met se nghien cfru ve hei nhap quec to cita Viet Nam nhu: Bao cao "Danh gia tac &Ong tong the Viet Nam tra thanh vien cua WTO den thay doi xuat nhap khau va the che" cua Du an ho try chinh sach thuang mai da bien (MUTRAP); Bao cao "Mc deng cna hei nhap kinh t6 quec to doi vai nen kinh to sau ba nam Viet Nam gia nhap WTO cna Vien Nghien cfru guar' 1)'T kinh to Trung tieing cling da tinh toan, phan tich met se chi tieu da dang h6a mat hang xuat khau cna Viet Nam Tuy nhien nhung nghien dm chi xem xet tac deng cna hei nhap kinh t6 qu6c to den da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau chu khong trvc tier, phan tich mire 0, xu twang da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau dm Viet Nam Han nib, cac nghien ciru tren ding chua xem xet tac &Ong cda da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh to Viet Nam Do viec nghien cfru da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau va tac deng cua no den tang truang kinh to a Viet Nam hi'en dang la met "khoang trong" can dtrac khoa lap Xuat phat tir nhung khoang do, NCS nhan thay rang viec thvc hien de tai la rat can thiet, be sung cho flitting nghien ciru truac xet tren ca phuang dien khoa hoc va thuc ti6n 1VInc dich nghien ciru Myc lieu tong phan tich tac deng cna viec da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang twang kinh to Viet Nam Muc tieu cu the: - Nghien ciru ca sa b'T luan ve da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau va tac &Ong cna da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang twang kinh te - Phan tich, danh gia mirc 0, xu huong da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau cna Viet Nam tir dei mai den - Danh gia tac &Ong cna da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau cl6n tang truang kinh t6 Viet Nam tiled gian qua xi - De xuat dinh huang va mat s6 giai phap thuc hien da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau nham dam bao tang truang nhanh va ben \Tang cda nen kinh te theo duang thiic day xuat khau cila Viet Nam nhang nam tai Doi tuvng va phm vi nghien cum: 4.1 Dai tuyng nghien cfru: D6i Wong nghien ciru cua luan an la da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau va tac dang dia no den tang truang kinh t6 Viet Nam 4.2 Phgm vi nghien cern: - Pham vi ve not dung: da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau co the dien a cap da doanh nghiep, cap da qu6c gia va cap da quac te Do mpc dich nghien ciru ctia luan an la phan tich tac clang cda da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh vi vay pham vi nghien ciru cua luan an tap trung xem xet da clang Ma mat hang xuat khau tren goc da tong the a cap quac gia - Pham vi ve thai gian va khong gian: Luan an tap trung nghien ciru da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau a Viet Nam giai clop 1991-2011 Phtro•ng phap nghien cum De thuc hien muc tieu va cac not dung nghien dm, luan an sir dung phuong phap luan vat bien chirng va vat lich sir lam phuong phap nghien ciru co ban de phan tich su da clang hOa mat hang xuat khau va tac clang cua no den tang twang kinh te Tren co sa tim quy luat van clang giva chUng Ngoai ra, de tai can sir dung mat so phuong phap cu the khac nhu: phuong phap phan tich he th6ng, tong hop, logic, lich sir, th6ng ke, so sanh d6i chieu tang ket thgc tiZn de he th'6ng hoa cac van de 1)'T luan, phan tich danh gia thuc tang da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau va tac dang cua no den tang truang kinh to Viet Nam, ding nhu tao su gan bo chat the giita cac phan de tai nghien cdu Phuang phap phan tich kinh te luting: luan an van dung va xay dung mo hinh vec to to h6i quy (VAR) phan tich tac clang cda da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh te Viet Nam Day la mo hinh kinh to luting dung de xem xet Ong thai va su phu thuc lan giva cac bien theo thai gian MO hinh VAR la mo hinh h6i quy Ong Trong mo hinh VAR, m8i bien s6 duoc giai thich bang mat phuong trinh china cac gia tri tre cda chinh bien s6 va cac giA tri trZ cua cac bie'n so khac Ve cAu tritc mo hinh VAR g6m nhieu phuong trinh (mat he phuong trinh) va co cac tr'6 cda bien s6 Vai mo hinh dang nhu v4y, vi4 trOc luting khong chi co tac Ong cua cac bien giai thich, ma bao g6m ca bien tre cua bien phu thu6c Theo nhieu nghien ciru, mo hinh uac luting co cac bien tre cua bien phu thuc dam bao da tin cay cao hon a xii so vai nhang ma hinh khong co bin tre cua bien phv thu9c, ma van giir duce d9ng thai lau dai ciia tang truang kinh te Khai quat ve phuong phap va quy trinh thvc hi'en nghien cfru cua Juan an duoc minh hoa theo so sau: Nghien cam 1ST 1u4n veA da dong h6a mat hang xuat khan 4•••• Co s r khoa hoc ye tac Ong cua da d'ng hoa mat hang xuat khan den tang truirng kinh Mo hinh va gia thiet nghien cum Phrncng phap nghien cfru dinh tinh: , (phan tich, so sanh7 tong hop, suy dien thong cA Khan sat thu th4p so lieu tic,d0 han tich,thqc trang va dinh hang xuat khau den ciia da d4ng hoa mit • tfingirtning kinh to Viet Nam, Phiro'ng phap nghien cfru dinh luvng: (Mo hinh vec to to hoi quy VAR) Nghien cull cac dinh hweeng phat trial chung ciia WO Nam Nghien cum xu the Oat trien cila n en kinh to toil' au •• I • V Axuat A quan them, X dinh htthng va giai phi") thin hien da 4ng hoa mat X nham thtle day X tang truirng kinh to vqt Nam A khan hang xuat Y nghia khoa hoc va time tiers cua 1u4n an - Luan an da he thOng h6a &roc co s6 ly luVn nghien cdu tac d9ng cua da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh te Tren co s6 xay dung &roc khung phan tich 1y thuyet va chi dinh &roc mo hinh, phuong phap dinh luong phii hop de danh gia tac d9ng cua da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau d6n tang tnrong kinh to Vi't Nam nhcing nom d6i moi vim qua - Phan tich thgc trpg xuat khau va da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau cua Viet Nam bao da clang h6a theo chiL r9ng, da dang h6a theo chiesu sau, da clang h6a 1oi the so sanh; Tinh toan mirc da clang hoa va phan tich xu huang da dang Ma mat hang xuat khau cila Viet Nam nhung nom qua Rut nhan dinh chung ve da clang Ma mat hang xuat khau va cac nguyen nhan anh huong den da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau cua Viet Nam - Phan tich dinh tinh mOi quan he gitta da dang h6a mat hang xuat khau va tang twang kinh to Viet Nam bang phuong phap mO to thOng ka Kat qua cho thay da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau khong chi gOp phan giam thiau nhang rUi ro truac nhung bian dOng tir ben ngodi, tri on dinh thu nhAp tir xuat khau, ma kich thich hog Ong san xuat nu& Oat trian theo huang da clang hon, xuat hien nhieu nganh nghe mai thong qua cac mOi lien kat nguac va lien kat xuoi, ma rOng lai the so sanh sang cac linh \Tv mai ma c6 the dAn den phan 136 ngtiOn luc hieu qua hon - Luang h6a tac &Ong cua da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh to Viet Nam Oa tren mo hinh vec to to hOi quy VAR Kat qua nghien thu dinh luting cho thay da dang hoa mat hang xuat khau co anh huang tich cue den tang truang kinh t6 Viet Nam ca ngan han va dai han Dang chu Y, ca clang h6a mat hang xuat khau theo chieu sau va theo chieu rOng deu thfic day tang truang kinh te Tuy nhien da clang Ma mat hang xuat khdu theo chieu sau c6 tac dOng den tang truang kinh to mph hon so vai da dang hoa theo chieu rOng Han naa, tac &Ong cua da clang h6a theo chieu rOng tir nam 2000 tra lai day thap Ilan so voi giai doan dau dOi mai Dieu ham Y rang thai gian tai Viet Nam can phai day mph da clang h6a theo chieu sau - Tir kat qua phan tich, luAn an de xuat quan diem, dinh huang va mot so giai phap thuc hien da clang h6a mat hang xuat khan nham dam bao tang twang kinh to nhanh va ben \rang theo duang thfic day xuat khau cila Viet Nam nhang nam Kk cAu ciia 1u4n an Ngodi phan ma dau, kat luAn, danh muc tai lieu tham khao, plw Luc, luan an gOm chuong Cu the nhu sau: Chuang 1: Ca sa ly luan nghien ciru tac &Ong cua da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh t Chnong 2: Thuc trang da clang hoa mat hang xuat khAu cua Viet Nam giai (loan 1991-2011 Chiming 3: Danh gia tac &Ong cua da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang twang kinh to Viet Nam Chuang 4: Dinh huang da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau va cac giai phap thuc hien nham thfic day tang truang kinh to Viet Nam xiv Chuang 1: CO SO LY LUNN NGHIEN Cf1t TAC BONG 0[U BA DANG HOA MAT HANG XUAT KHAU BEN TANG TRUONG KINH TE 1.1 TANG TRVONG KINH TE VA CAC NHAN TO TAC BONG 1.1.1 Khai niem tang trtdrng kinh te' Tang truang kinh to la mot nhfing van de cot lOi cua khoa hoc kinh te nhieu thap nien qua, vi ro rang mot nhang muc tieu quan nhat ma tat ca cac qu6c gia tren the gioi deu theo du6i la tri muc tang truang cao va hop 13'7 Ciing voi th6i gian, quan niem ve tang truang ngdy cang hoan thien hon Den nay, hau het cac hoc gia deu thira nhan dinh nghia tang truang kinh to la su gia tang thu nhap hay san luting thuc to duoc tinh cho toan 110 nen kinh to mot thOi gian nhat dinh, thuOng la mot nam [10] Tang truang kinh t6 co the bieu thi bang s6 tuyet doi (quy mo tang truang) hoac s6 tucmg d6i (t6c dO tang truang) Quy mo tang twang phan anh sty gia tang nhieu hay it, the (10 tang truang duoc sir dung veri 3'7 nghia so sanh Wong d6i va phan anh su gia tang nhanh hay cham gicra cac thai kST Nhu vay, ban chat cila tang truang kinh to la phan anh su thay d6i ve luting cua nen kinh te Nhung su thay dOi chira dung hai thuOc tinh, hay not cach khac la hai mat dm tang truang kinh te dO la mat s6 luting va mat chit luting Mat so hthng ciia tang truang kinh to la bieu hien ben ngodi cua su tang twang, no the hien a khai niem ve tang truang va duoc phan anh thong qua cac chi tieu danh gia quy mo va the dO tang truang thu nhap Neu quy mo va the dO tang cua cac chi tieu phan anh tong thu nhap va thu nhap binh quan dau ngued cao, có the nOi dO la bieu hien tich cuc ve mat luting ciia tang truang kinh te Mat chjt luting ctia tang frith/1g kinh to la thuOc tinh ben cua qua trinh tang truang kinh to (con s6 luting tang twang la bieu hien be ngoai ciia tang truang) the hien qua cac chi tieu phan anh hieu qua dat duoc mat s6 luting dm tang truang va kha nang tri no dai han Nhu vay neu xet mat luting ciia tang truang, nguai to thuong quan tam cau h6i: tang truang duoc bao nhieu? nhieu hay it? nhanh hay cham? thi nhang cau hOi lien quan den mat chat luting tang twang lai la: (1) kha nang tri cac chi tieu tang twang the nao? (2) cai gia phai tra cho viec dat dugc cac chi tieu ay la bao nhieu? De phat trien ben yang, cac qu6c gia tren the gioi, nhat la cac qu6c gia Bang phat trien deu quan tam den chat luting tang twang va dat muc tieu khong ngimg nang cao chat luting tang twang kinh te Viec quan tam den mat chat luting tang twang lai la co hOi de dat muc tieu ve s6 luting dat Ngugc 14.i mat s6 lugng dm tang truang lai tao nhang ho trg v6 vat chat cho viec huang tai chat lugng tang truang tat hon Nhu vay, s6 lugng va chat luting cda tang truang la hai mat cUa mat van d6 Tuy vay, moi giai doan phut tri6n khac va tit)/ theo sir lira chon m6 hinh phut tri6n ma vi tri cua mat hai mat dugc dat khac (i) Thong thuang, giai doan dau dm qua trinh phut tri6n, de tao nhung net khoi sac nhanh chong cho n6n kinh t6, hinh nhang ti6n d6 vat chat, dang lgc co ban cho viec giai quy6t nhang lien ba xa hai sau Phan lan cac nuarc dang phut tri6n d6u có nhan manh nhi6u hon den mat s6 lugng ctia tang truang va nhiem vu truck mat thuang dat la lam th6 nao cai thien dugc cac chi tieu phan anh quy ma va t6c tang truang Do quan tam d6n mat luting tang truang nhi6u hon nen nhi6u truang hop phai 1)6 qua y'eu cau cila chat lugng tang truang, hay nOi cach khac mat s6 lugng va chat luting gun nhu la y6u to mang tinh danh doi (ii) Giai doan sau, cac chi tieu tang truang da dat dugc mirc nhat dinh, thi mai quan tam d6n van d6 chat lugng cita tang truang Van de giai doan khong phai la dat dugc cac chi tieu tang truang la bao nhieu ma la tinh hi'eu qua va sir Wen vung cua cac chi tieu ay nhu th6 nao Vi tri ngdy cang nang cao cua mat chat lugng tang truang la hoan town phii hop vai xu th6 tang truang dui han cua n6n kinh t6, clang nhu phu hap vai muc tieu Oat tri6n b6n viing dat cho m6i qu'6c gia Viec xac dinh vi tri va m6i quan he gifra hai mat ciia tang truang nhu phan tich a tren chi mang tinh chat tuong d6i va phu thuac vao nhi6u y6u to nhu: tinh trang phut tri6n kinh t6-xa hai cila dat nuoc; bai canh qu6c Trong chin lugc phut tri6n kinh t6-xa th; quan di6m va chinh such cita Chinh hai ciia Viet Nam den nam 2020, chUng to xac dinh giai quy6t m6i quan he Oita mat s6 Luang va chat Luang tang truang theo huang dung hOa, &mg thai va hop ly Chuy6n d6i m6 hinh tang truang tir chit y6u phut tri6n theo chi6u rang sang phut tri6n hap ly gift chi6u rang va chi6u sau, vira ma rang quy ma, vira chu nang cao chat luting, hieu qua, tinh b6n yang [2] 1.1.2 MOt so think thu nh4p va tang truth-1g kinh to chit ye'u 1.1.2.1 M'Otthirov thu nhtfp chii y'reu Trong n'en kinh t6 thi twang, thuac dugc dung d6 danh gia thu nhap cila n6n kinh to la cac chi tieu he th6ng tai khoan qu6c gia (SNA) Dirng tren goc toan ba n'en kinh te, thu nhap (hay san lugng) thuang dugc the hien duai clang gia tri: có the la tong gia tri thu nhap (san lugng), hoac có the la thu nhap (san lugng) binh quan tren dau nguai Cac chi tieu gia tri phan anh thu nhap theo he th6ng tai khoan qu6c gia bao g6m: tong gia tri san xuat (GO); tong san pham qu6c not (GDP); tong san pham qu6c dan (GNP), tong thu nhap qu6c dan (GNI); d6 chi tieu GDP la chi tieu thuerng duqc sir dung ph6 bidn nhat [10] - Tang gia tri san xuat (GO) T6ng gia tri san xuat la tong gia tri san pham vat chat va dich vu dugc tug nen mot qudc gia mgt th6i kS7 nhdt dinh (thuerng la mgt tren pham vi lanh th6 nam) Day chinh la tong doanh thu ban hang thu dugc tir cac don vi, cac nganh toan b6 ndn kinh to qu6c dan, hoac tong gia tri san xuat c6 th'd tinh true tidp tir san xuat va dich vu g6m chi phi trung gian (IC) va gia tri gia tang (VA) tir san pham vat chat va dich vu dO ndn kinh to qu6c dan - Tong san pham quac not (GDP) T6ng san pham qudc not lung tong gia tri cua cac hang h6a va dich vu cu6i cung dugc san xuat pham vi lanh th6 mgt qu6c gia mot died kST nhat dinh (thugng la mgt nam) Nip" vay, GDP la thu nhap tao them tir tat ca cac hog Ong san xuat-kinh doanh mot, cho du chi' the san xuat-kinh doanh la ngueri nuarc ngoai hay ngueri nuac Dd tinh GDP c6 ba cach tidp can co ban la tir san xuat, tieu dung va phan phdi Tier]) can tir san xuat: GDP la gia tri gia tang tinh cho toan 116 ndn kinh td N6 dugc bang tong gia tri gia tang ctia tat ca cac don vi san xuat-kinh doanh thutmg tru ndn kinh td Hay nOi each khac no dugc xac dinh bang tong gia tri san xuat (GO) trir di chi phi trung gian (IC) (1.1) Nhu vay GDP = GO - IC Tiep can tir thu nhap: GDP dugc xac dinh tr'en co so* cac khoan hinh thu nhap va phan phi thu nhap ran dau, g6m thu nhap cua ngueri co sire lao &Ong clued hinh thirc tidn cung, tidn luang (W), thu nhap cua ngugi c6 dat cho thud (R); thu nhap cua ngueri c6 tidn cho vay (In); thu nhap rung ciia cung ty (Pr); khau hao tai san c6 dinh (Dp) va cudi cung la thud kinh doanh (thud gian thu Ti) NglifalaGDP=W+R+Pr+In+Dp+Ti (1.2) Tiep can tic chi tieu: GDP la tong chi tieu cho tieu dung cudi cung cua cac 116 (C); chi tieu cua chinh phu (G); dau to cua doanh nghidp (I) va chi tieu qua thuang mai qu'dc t6 (xuat khAu (X) — nhap khau (M)) Nhu vay GDP = C + I + G + (X-M) (1.3) - Tang san pham quac dan (GNP) va tang thu nhap quac clan (GNI) T6ng san pham qudc dan (GNP) la chi tieu luemg tong gia tri bang tidn cua hang hOa va dich vu cudi cung ma mgt qu6c gia san xuat mot theri kST (thugng la mgt nam) bang cac ydu to san xuat cita minh qu6c td, tang kha Wang tham gia va canh tranh tren thi twang qu6c td, ma r6ng qui mo va nang cao gid tri hang hod xuat khau dia Viet Nam D6i vai van a nay, B6 Khoa hoc va cong nghe phai ding vai cac B6, nganh quan 13'7 san xuat nhu 136 C6ng Thuong, B6 tidn hanh khan truong viec Wing nghiep va phat tridn n6ng than, B6 Xay soat, xem xet he th6ng cac tieu chuan chat luting hang hod nuac de vira sira b6 sung cac tieu chuan chua dat yeu cAu thi tnrang qu6c td, vita xay dung, ban hanh mai cac tieu chuan ma tnrac chua co M6t didm rift ding can ltru y doi vai van de la khong nen thtrc hien mot each may mac - theo nghia la bat cir tieu chuan ap dung cho loaf san pliant hang hod nao ding can phai dap img dugc tieu chuan chung caa que)c td, vi nhu vay c6 thd la khong hien thtrc qua trinh tri'dn khai - ma can xem xet de xir 17 mot each thtrc sit ky luting va tidn hanh mot each bai ban, tang btr6c mot Tnrac mat co thd qui dinh tieu chu'An a mire trung,binh, dap Ung dugc yeu cau s6 d6i tac nhap khAu chinh doi vai mat hang do, tip se tirng btrac nang cao mire tieu chuan d phu hap vai sit ma rOng thi tnrang cling nhu kha nang dap img cua cac doanh nghiep san xuat nuac - Can tidp tuc hoan thien bidu thud quan va cat giam thud theo dung 1'6 trinh thtrc hien cam kdt h6i nh4p qu6c td D6ng th6i sira d6i, b6 sung cac sac thud va mire thud suat bidu thud xuat khau theo huong khuydn khich xuat khau cac mat hang cong nghiep chd bin sau, mat hang xuat kh'Au mai; tinh du cac ton that mai tnrang vao thud xuat khau (nhat la cac mat hang khoang san, n6ng, lam thily san) de giam dan da clang hoa mat hang theo chidu rOng, han chd tinh tang khai thac qua mire va "ban thao" tai nguyen qu6c gia Han chd xuat khau cac mat hang anh huang an da clang sinh hgc - Tidp tuc ay manh han nira viec cai tidn quy trinh, thu tuc hai quan, don gian hod thit tuc thu thud, hoan thud va kidm tra hai quan Cai each thii tuc va hien dai hod hai quan, tang cuang va chart chinh cong tac kidm tra sau thtrc hien cac nghiep vu thud va hai quan (Nu kidm); tang them mat hang xuat khau dugc mien kidm tra d'd nit ngan th6i gian va chi phi thtrc hien thii tuc hai quan xu6ng ngang bang vai cac nuac khu we - Tang cuang cac bien phap tao thuan lgi toan qu6c td, cong than fan vd tieu chuan chat lugng hang hod, dich vu ho trg thuong mai nham thnc day xuat khAu Tridn khai ky kat cac thOa thuan ve toan qu6c td qua ngan hang vai cac thi truang xuat khau hien dang gap khO khan giao dich va bao dam toan; 14 kdt cac thoa thuan song phuong va cong nhan lan ve kidm dich thus vat, tieu chuan ve sinh an toan thtrc pham vai cac nuac d6i tac 152 - Tie') tic and rang quyen kinh doanh va mo cua thi tnrang kinh doanh, phan ph6i hang hod, dich vu theo cac cam ket qu6c to ma Viet Nam la vien; bao dam nguyen tac binh clang hog dang kinh doanh cung ling cac dich vi 118 trg xuat khau tai Viet Nam; tirng kr& xod b6 tinh trang dac quyen kinh doanh dich vu ye buu chinh vien thong, nang lugng, bao hiem, giao thong, cang Nen, logistics de nang cao hieu qua hog dOng nhang linh vgc nay, gap phan giam chi phi kinh doanh, tap dieu kien de cac doanh nghiep da dang hoa san xuat va xuat khAu 4.3.8 Giai phap xtic tien thtrang mai thtyc hi?n da clang hoa mat hang xuat khiu De da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau, hog xfic tien thuang mai &mg vai tr.() rat quan Thgc to cho thay, neu doanh nghiep khong co dugc nhang th6ng tin can thiet ve nhu cau thi twang, gia ban, d6i tac, chinh sach thuang mai dm nuac nhap khau, ding nghe san xuat se han die rat lan den kha nang da dang hoa xuat khau cua doanh nghiep Vi vay, de day manh da dang h6a mat hang xuAt khau, chinh phu can nang cao hieu qua cong tac )(fie tien thuang mai ho trg doanh nghiep xuat khau Cu the la: - Tang cuang cong tac thu thap va ph6 bien thong tin cap nhat ve thi tnrang nuac so tai, cac rao can ky thuat, canh bao som nguy co bi ap dat kien ch6ng ban pha gia; cling nhu cac h6i chg, trien lam lan c6 uy tin, cac chuang trinh tru dai ve dAu tu, thuong mai cua mac tai danh cho doanh nghiep Viet Nam - Nang cao chat lugng va hieu qua dm cac chuong trinh xuc tien thuong mai qu6c gia, huang tam vao cac san pham mai, thi tnrang mai ma nuac c6 kha nang san xuat vai lugng lan D6i mai chat lugng cua viec xay dung va thvc hien chuang trinh xuc lien thuang mai qu6c gia hang nam; phi hap vai cac hog 'Tang 'the tien de to chirc cac chuang trinh lan lien nganh ve thuang mai - dau tu - du lich - van hoa nham quang bd hinh anh quac gia, ke ca viec thong qua cac kenh truyen thong quac - Day manh trien khai thgc hien Chuang trinh Thuong hieu qu6c gia nham quang ba hinh anh qu6c gia, gang bd san pham va xay dung thuang hieu nganh hang, san pham xuat khau tai cac thi truang xuat khau twig diem va co nhieu tiem nang d6i vai hang hoa Viet Nam Heir trg tham nhap thi truang nuac ngodi d6i yeti thuong hieu cac hang hoa dac tnrng thuac Chuang trinh thuong hieu qu6c gia tien tham gia cac h6i chg chuyen nganh (h6i chg de) go, h6i chg thily san ) khong tham gia cac h6i chg ma khong ro su quan tam thgc su cua cac d6i tac can huang den Chuan bi ky hien vat, tai lieu tieu chuan Icy thug kha nang san xuat va giao hang, mac gia c6 the thoa thuan tham gia h6i chg, giam thieu tinh trang hen tra lai sau nhu van thuang xay truOc day phuong dien khac, co the to chirc doan doanh 153 nghiep nuac ngoai vao Viet Nam giao dich mua hang; gi6i thieu san phAm cua Viet Nam va to chirc cac HOi nghi qu6c t6 nganh hang xuAt khAu tai Viet Nam - Cung co va nang cao hieu qua hoot dOng cna he th6ng cac ca quan lam cong tae xuc tien thuang mai T6 chirc lai he th6ng cac to chirc xuc lien thuang mai va co the cung cap thong tin thi truang, tu van dAu tu, thuang mai, tu van phop ludt, mai truang kinh doanh a trong, ngoai nude cho cong dOng doanh nghiep Ph6i hap tot han t6 chirc xnc tien ntrac veri ca quan dai dien Viet Nam er nude ngoai, cac t6 chirc hal quan cila nu& so tai cac viec x'dy dung va t6 chirc cac hoot dOng xfic tien thuang mai - Tang cuang vai tro, trach nhiem cua cac Tham tan Thuang mai tai cac nuac theo huang 1-18 tra tich cue han cho cac doanh nghiep xuAt khAu thong qua co the ph6i hap gift cac Hiep hOi nganh hang va cac Thuang vu Viet Nam tai nuac ngoai; thuang xuyen theo dOi tinh hinh, chu Ong phat hien cac thay d6i ve chinh sach, ca the quan ly nhdp khdu, kiem soot chAt luting ho4c nhang thOng tin b'At lqi d6i vai hang xuAt khAu chit dOng ph6i hap ngan ngira, giai quyet sam cac vu Viet Nam tai cac thi truang viec phat sinh; thuang xuyen theo dOi va c6 canh bao sam nguy ca hang xuat khAu cita V* Nam bi kien ch6ng ban pha gia, ch6ng try cap, to ye de chil Ong dOi pho, ngan ch'an; Hap tae vai cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam a nuarc ngoai de Mx tiep dua hang Viet Nam vao cac sieu thi, chai phan ph6i 16.n tai nu6c nhap khAu a - X'ay dung ca the tham van, ph6i hap thuang xuyen Oita cac BO, nganh, dia phuang, hiep hOi ve tinh hinh san xuAt, xuAt khAu cac mat hang de ding giai guy& kilo khan cho doanh nghiep; nghi'en cfru t6 elide cac Chuang trinh dieu tra du bao san luting, ton kho va luting tieu dimg nuac de co dinh huang cho san xuAt va xuAt khAu, d4c biet la cac mat hang xuAt khAu mai Ket 1u4n chtn:mg 4: Tren ca sa nhang van de 13'r ludn trinh bay a Chuang 1, thgc tang xuAt khAu va da dang 116a mat hang xuAt khAu cua Viet Nam &rat phan tich a chuang 2, ding nhu nhang phan tich danh gia tac dOng cua da clang h6a mat hang xuAt khAu den tang truang kinh tea Chuang Chuang dm ludn an da dua quan diem va phac thao dinh huang thgc hien da clang Ma mat hang xuAt khAu nhdm thuc dAy tang truang kinh to V* Nam den nom 2020, tam nhin 2030 \TM cac not dung chinh la: phuang thirc dux hien da clang hoa mat hang xuAt khAu, phat trien cac mat hang xuAt khAu va to trinh dux hien DOng thai ludn an da de xuAt nhom giai phap ca ban de thicrc hien da clang hoa mat hang xuAt khAu nham thfic dAy tang tnramg kinh to nhanh va ben yang cila Viet Nam thai gian 154 KET LUAN Luan an vai tieu da: "Mc &Ong act da (king h6a mat hang xuat khan din tang trtrong kinh to Viet Nam" da tap trung nghien ciru co sa lY luan va da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau va tac &Ong dm da dang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang tnrang kinh ta Tren co sa phan tich, danh gia mire d'O, xu huang da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau cila Viet Nam tir d'Oi mai clan va kat qua uoc lugng tac dOng ciia da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh to Viet Nam thai gian qua, tit luan an da da xuat quan diem, dinh huang va mot so giai phap thuc hian da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau nham dam bao tang truang kinh to nhanh va ban yang theo dung thfic day xuat khau dm Via Nam nhang nam tad Cu the, luan an da dat dugc nhang kat qua sau: - Luan an da N thong hoa dugc co sa ly luan v'a da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau tren cac chiau canh khac va cac nhan to anh huang den da dang hoa mat hang xuat luang da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau Xay dung dugc mot so chi tieu chili yau a khau - Luan an dd tong quan mot cach c6 N thOng cac truang phai ly thuy'at luan ban va tac &Ong cilia da dang Ma mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh ta, nham tao khung phan tich ly thuyat cho luan an - Luan an da tong quan mot each c6 N thOng cac nghien cim thuc nghiam va tac dOng cilia da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh to tren the giai Tren co sa dO chi dinh dugc mo hinh va phugng phap uac lugng phi' hop vai diau kin so lieu va dac diem kinh t6 cilia V* Nam - Luan an a phan tich thuc tang xuat khau va da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau cilia Viet Nam bao Om: da clang h6a theo chiau rOng, da clang hoa theo chiau sau, da clang h6a lgi the so sanh; Tinh toan mix (10 da clang h6a va phan tich xu huang da clang h6a mat hang xuat khAu cilia Viet Nam nhang nam qua Kat qua cho thay cau true mat hang xuat khau dm Viet Nam khong chi da clang h6a theo chiau rOng ma c6 sir chuyan bin tich cu.c da clang h6a theo chiau sau Tuy nhien, mire da clang Ma thdp hon nhiau so vai cac nuac khu \Tue Hon nua, da dang h6a mat hang xuat khau dm Viet Nam chili yesu theo chiau rOng, mire dO da dang hoa theo chiau sau nhiau han cha Qua trinh da clang hoa din chili y'au a nhom hang the, so cha, nhom hang cha bin dtra tren tai nguyen, nhOm hang co ham lugng khoa hoc cong ngha thap va trung binh 155 - Luan an da phan tich dinh tinh tac clang cua da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau den tang truang kinh to Vi't Nam bang phuong phap mo to thong ke Ket qua cho thay da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau khong chi g6p phAn giam thieu nhung rui ro tnrac nhang bien clang tir ben ngoai, tri on dinh thu nhap tir xuat khau, ma can kich thich hoat Tang san xuat nuac phat trim theo huang da clang han, xuat hien nhi'eu nganh nghe mai thong qua cac mai lien ket ngugc va lien ket xuoi, ma rang lgi the so sanh sang cac linh vgc mai ma co the dAn den phan bo nguan lgc hieu qua han - Dga tren so lieu theo quy, tix quy nam 1995 den quy nam 2011, luan an da phan tich dinh lugng tac clang cna da dang h6a mat hang xuat khau den tang twang kinh to Viet Nam bang mo hinh vec to to hai quy VAR Ket qua nghien thu dinh Luang cho thay da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau co anh huong tich cgc den tang truang kinh te Viet Nam ca ngan han va dai han Han nira, da dang hoa mat hang xuat khau can gop phan kich thich cac doanh nghiep nghiep dau to ma rang san xuat kinh doanh, doi mai cong nghe; tao them cong an viec lam cho nguai lao nang cao chat lugng nguan nhan Luc, nha dO gian tiep thilc day tang twang kinh - Phan tac clang cua da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau theo chieu rang va theo chieu sau den tang twang kinh te Ket qua cho thay ca da clang h6a theo chieu rang va theo chieu sau deu thuc day tang truang kinh te Da dang h6a mat hang xuat khan theo chieu rang thuc day phat trien nhang nganh cong nghiep mai va ma rang cac nganh cong nghiep hien c6 nen kinh te, tir da g6p phan thiic day tang truang kinh Da clang h6a mat hang xuat khau theo chieu sau tao hi'eu frng tich cgc g6p phan nang cao kha nang san xuat ciia nen kinh te, kich thich d6i mai cong nghe va tang twang kinh te on dinh dai han Dang cho y, tac clang caa da dang hoa mat hang xuat khau theo chieu sau den tang twang kinh te manh han so vai da dang hoa theo chieu rang Ngodi luan an cling chi rang tac clang cua da dang h6a theo chieu rang tit nam 2000 tra lai day thap han so vai giai clop dau d6i mai Dieu cho thay, n'eu Viet Nam van tip tgc thuc hien da clang h6a theo chieu rang, dga tren lgi the ye tai nguyen thien nhien va lao Ong gia re se anh huang bat lgi den six tang truang cda nen kinh to dai - Tir ca sa lyT thuyet, phan tich thuc trang va ket qua danh gia tac clang cua da clang hOa mat hang xuat an tang truang kinh t6 V* Nam, luan an da de xuat quan di6m, dinh huang va nhom giai phap ca ban thgc hien da clang hoa mat hang xuat khau nham thfic dam bao tang truang kinh to nhanh va ben yang cila nen kinh to theo duang thUc day xuat khau dia Viet Nam nhitng nam 156 DANH MIX CAC CONG TRINH CUA TAC GIA CO LIEN QUAN DEN LUAN AN Phan Tien Ng9c (2004): "Xuat khau cita Viet Nam boi canh thtrang mgi thi gi6i hien nay", Tap chi Kinh to Chau A - Thai Binh Duang, s6 05/2004 Phan Tien Ngoc (2004): "Ngogi thmang Viet Nam tdn trinh h6i s6 nhap kinh d quac d", Tap chi Nhung van de kinh to the 09/2004 Phan Tien Ng9c (2004): "Quan he nhan qua xuat khau, clau ttr va tang trtrang kinh d Viet Nam", Tap chi thuang mai, s6 10/2004 Phan Tien Ngoc & Pham TL Thang (2004): "Vjn cue xuat khau va tang trtrang kinh to Viet Nam", Tap chi COng san, s6 10/2004 Phan Tien Ng9c (2004): "Phan tich chinh ltrgng ve anh htrang ctia xuat khau, clau ttr din tang trithng kinh to cfia Viet Nam", Tap chi kinh to d6i ngoai, s6 01/2005 Phan Tien Ng9c (2005): "Vietnam's Foreign Trade in World Economic Integration Process", Vietnam Economic Review, se) 04/2005 Phan Tien Ng9c (2005): "Xuact khau thug san clia Viet Nam - Thtrc va thach thirc", Tap chi nhang van de kinh to the giai, se) 11/2005 Phan Tien Ngoc (2006): "Vai tro cita khu tong nghiep, khu the xuat vai phat trim kinh to Viet Nam", Tap chi nghien cfru kinh te, se) 10/2006 Phan Tien Ngoc (2011): "Dau ttr trtrc tiep mak ngoai diet cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam", Tap chi Nhiing van de kinh t6 va chinh tri the giai, se) 7/2011 10 Phan Tien Ng9c (2013): "MC)t so giai phap chuyn dich ca cau mat hang xuat khau Viet Nam", Tap chi Quan 1y nha nuac, s6 7/2013 11 Phan Tien Ng9c & Phan Thi Nhiem (2013): "Da eking h6a mat hang xuat khau cfta Viet Nam", T4p chi Nhung van de kinh t6 va chinh tri the so 7/2013 12 Phan Tien Ng9c (2013): "Lai thj so sanh cac mat hang xuat khju cua Viet Nam", Tap chi Kinh to va Du bao, s6 15/2013 157 DANH MUC TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Teti lieu tiing Viet Adam Smith (1776), Cfia ccii cfia Mc dan t6c, Nxb Gido duc dich nam 1997 BCH TW Dang, Van kien Dgi hal Dgi bieU toan quoc cac khaa VI, VII, VIII, IX, X, XI Nxb Chinh tri quiic gia BO Cong Thuang (2008), Ranh gici tac clOng tang the Viet Nam tra thanh vien WTO den thay dai xudt nhap khdu va the die, Bao cao Dix an ho trg thuang mai da bien giai clop II, Ha N'gi Bg Ong Thuang (2011), I31 ' an Chien lu6c Xudt nhap khau hang hat thai Ig) 2011 2020 va clinh huang tai nam 2030" va Quye't dinh s6 2471/QD-TTg ngdy 28/12/2011 dm Thu tuang Chinh phit phe duyest We an Bg K" hoach va DAL! to (2013), Danh gia tang the tinh hinh kinh te-xd hai Viet Nam sau nam gia nhap to chic thuang mgi the giai, Bao cao 4/2013 Nguy6n Van Cong (2011), Lgm phat va kiem soat lam phat Viet Nam, Nxb Chinh tri quoc gia va Cuang & Pham Van Van (2012), Giao trinh kinh te cong cong, Nxb Dai hoc KTQD Nguyen Quang Dong & Nguy6n TN Minh (2012), Giao trinh kinh te luting, Nxb Dai hoc KTQD Dang Dinh Dao & va Thi Minh Loan (2010), Kinh te Viet Nm ba nam gia nhap to chfic thuang mgi the giai 2007-2009, Nxb Dai hoc KTQD 10 Tr'an Th9 D4t (2010), Tang truang kinh te then ky dai mai 6' Viet Nam, Nxb Dai hoc KTQD 11 TrAn Th9 Dat & Ha QuYnh Hoa (2010), Cdu tien va chinh sach tien tea Viet Nam, Nxb Dai hgc KTQD 12 Nguy6n Thi Thu Hang, Nguy6n Dire Thanh (2011), Ngujn gac lam phat Viet Nam giai down 2000-2010: phat hien mai tit nhieng bang chfing mai, Bai nghien dru NC22, Trung tam Nghien ciru Kinh to va Chinh sach, Trung Dai h9c Kinh t6, Dai h9c Qu6c gia Ha Ngi 13 TrAn Hoe (2001), Tang truang cfia nen kinh te Viet Nam theo &rang thfic ddy xudt khdu-nhang dieu kien can thief- va nhfing gicii phap, Juan an tien si, DHKTQD 14 Nguyen Thi Thu Huang (2004), MO so giai phi], phcit trien xu art khdu mat hang mai cfia Viet Nam boi canh hoi nhap kinh te quoc te, De tai nghien cdu cap BO 15 NguyL Thi Minh Huang (2012), "Da d4ng hela mat hang xuat khAtt tir Viet Nam sang Nhat Ban", Tap chi Nghien deu kinh to s6 404, thang 1/2012 16 John Maynard Keynes (1936), thuyet tang quat ye viec lam, lai sudt va tien te, Nxb Gido due dich nam 1994 158 17 Nguy8n Hiku Khai (2007), Chuyen dich ca eau hang xueit khan cfia Viet Nam, Nxb Th6ng ke 18 Cu Chi Loi (2009), Tang truang va chat hcang tang truang kinh to tai Viet Nam, Nxb tiz dien bach khoa 19 NO Thang Loi (2012), Giao trinh Kinh to phat trien, Nxb Dai hoc KTQD 20 Nguy8n Van Lich (2006), Can can thuang mai su nghiep CNH,HDH Viet Nam, Nxb Lao dOng-Xa hOi 21 E.Wayne Nafziger (1998), Kinh to hoc cfia cac nuac dang phat trien, Nxb ThOng ke 22 D8 Hoai Nam va Trail Dinh Thien (2009), Mo hinh cong nghiep hoa, hien dai hoa theo chinh &tong xa hoi chic nghta a Viet Nam, Nxb Khoa hoc xa hOi 23 Nguy8n Van Nam (2006, Tac coo va chat luting tang truang a Viet Nam, Nxb DAi hoc kinh to quoc dan 24 Phan Tien Ngoc (2004), "Xtuit khau cfia Viet Nam boi canh thuang mai thj giai hien nay", Tap chi Kinh to Chau A - Thai Binh Duang, so 05/2004 25 Phan Tien Ngoc (2005), "Phan tich dinh luting ve anh huang cua xuAt khAu, dau to den tang truang kinh to dia Viet Nam", Tap chi kinh to dOi ngoai, s6 01/2005 26 Phan Tien Ngoc (2005), "XuAt khAu thug san ctia Viet Nam - Thuc trang va thach thirc", Tap chi nhang van cue kinh to the' giai, s6 11/2005 27 Phan Tien Ng9c (2005), "XuAt khAu thus' san cita Viet Nam - Thuc trang va thach fink", Tap chi nhang van de kinh to the giai, s6 11/2005 28 Phan Tien Noe (2006), "Vai tr.?) cua khu cong nghiep, khu the xuat vOi phat trien kinh to Viet Nam", Tap chi nghien deu kinh te, s6 10/2006 29 Phan Tien Ngoc (2011), "Dail to trtrc tiep nuac ngodi dia cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam", Tap chi Nhang win cad kinh to va chinh tri thj giai, s8 7/2011 30 Phan Tien Ng9c (2013), "Met s6 giai phap chuyen dich co cau mat hang xuAt khau Viet Nam", Tap chi Quan lj) nha nuac, s6 7/2013 31 Phan Tien Ngoc & Phan Thi Nhiem (2013), "Da clang boa mat hang xuAt khAu cua Viet Nam", Tap chi Nhang von de kinh to va chinh tri the giai, so 7/2013 32 Phan Tien Ng9c (2013), "Loi the so sanh cac mat hang xuAt khAu cita Viet Nam", Tap chi Kinh to va Du bao, so 15/2013 33 Dwight H.Perkins, Steven Radelet, David L.Lindauer (2010), Kinh to hoc phat trien, Nxb Th6ng ke 34 Nguy8n H8ng Phong (2007), Giai phap phat trien xuOt khau mat hang mai cfia Viet Nam thol gian tai, Luan an tien si 35 Joseph E.Stiglitz va Shahid Yusuf (2002), Suy ngiim lai su than ky Dong A, Nxb Chinh tri quoc gia 36 Le Thi Minh Tam (1994), Moi quan he giica kinh to c of ngoai va su tang truang kinh to cfia Viet Nam olieu kien nen kinh to ma, Luan an tien si 37 H8 Trung Thanh (2009), Xueit khau ben yang a Viet Nam qua trinh h6i nhap kinh to queic te, Luan an tien si 38 Hoang Due Than & Dinh Quang Ty (2010), "Tang truang kinh to va tien ba, cong bang xa h6i & Viet Nam, Nxb Chinh tri qu6c gia 159 39 Bin Tat Thang (2010), Ph& trien nhanh va ben yang nen kinh to Viet Nam thai ky 2011-2020, Nxb Khoa hoc )(a hOi 40 Pham Tdt Thang & Phan Tien Ng9c (2004), "Van de xuat khau va tang tnrong kinh to Viet Nam", Top chi COng san, se 10/2004 koi Viet Nam theri ky dai mai, 41 Nguyen Van Thuong (2004), MO so van cle kinh Nxb Chinh tri quec gia 42 Thu tuong Chinh phi' (2011): Quyet dinh se 2471/QD-TTg Phe duyet chien lugc xuat nhdp khdu hang hem thai kST 2011 — 2020, Dinh huemg den nam 2030 43 Michael P.Todaro (1998), Kinh to hoc cho the giai tide ba, Nxb Giao dpc 44 Nguyen Ke 'Nan (2011), Kinh to Viet Nam nam 2010 — nhin lai ma hinh tang twang giai clown 2001-2010, Nxb Dai hoc KTQD 45 Nguyen Van Tun & Tran Hoe (2008), Giao trinh thuang mai queic te, Nxb Dai hoc KTQD 46 Throng Dinh Tuyen, Dinh Van An, Le Trieu Dung, NO Chung Khanh (2009), Bcio cao phan tick thorn kit thuang mai cfia Viet Nam va cac clieu khoon ve can can tarn cfia WTO, Du an h8 try thuang mai da bien giai (loan III, Ha 47 Truong Dinh Tuyen, VO Tri Thanh, Bui Twang Giang, Phan Van Chinh, Le Trieu Dung, Nguyen Anh Duang, Pham SST" An, Nguyen Dim Thanh (2011), Bao cao tcic clOng clia cam ket ma cfia thi twang WTO va cac hiep Binh khu vuc thuang mai to (FTAs) den hoot cking san xuat, thuang mai cua Viet Nam va cac bien phap horn thien ca the clieu hanh xuat nhap khdu cfia Bo Cong Thuang giai down 2011 - 2015, Du an He; try thuang mai da bien giai down III, Ha N'Oi 48 Uy ban kinh to cita Quec HOi (2010), Mo hinh tang tru.ang kinh to Viet Nam: Thifc trgng va Iva ch9n cho giai °loan 2011-2020, Nxb Dai hoc KTQD 49 Bui Thily Van (2011), Deiu to trirc tiep nuac ngoai (FDI) vai viec chuyen dich ca cau mat hang xuat khau a viing Ding bang Bac bo, Luan an tier' 50 Vien Nghien cfru va Quan 1T Kinh to Trung uong (2011), Nang hfc canh tranh cfia doanh nghiep xuat khau ba nganh may mac, thily san, va clien tie a Viet Nam, Vien Bao cao nghien cfru Teti lieu ding Anil 51 Anwesha Aditya & Saikat Sinha Roy (2010), Export Diversification and Economic Growth: Evidence from Cross-Country Analysis, Available from: http://www.isid.ac.ini—puiconference/dec_l conf/ParallelSessions7.html 52 Abuka, C (2005), "Infrastructure, Regional Integration and Growth in Africa." In Africa in the World Economy: The National, Regional and International Challenges, eds J Teunissen and Akkerman The Hague: FONDAD 53 Agosin, M R (2007), Export Diversification and Growth in Emerging Economies, Working Paper No 233 Departamento de Economia, Universidad de Chile 54 Andersen, Palle, and Gruen, David (1995), "Macroeconomic Policies and Growth." In Productivity and Growth, eds Palle Andersen, Jacqueline Dwyer, and David Gruen Sydney: Reserve Bank of Australia: 279-319 160 55 Ali, R., Alwang, J and Siegel, P (1991), Is export diversification the best way to achieve export growth and stability? A look at three African countries, Policy Research Working Paper Series, No 729, Washington, DC 56 Al-Marhubi, F (2000), "Export Diversification And Growth: An Empirical Investigation", Applied Economics Letters 7: 559-62 57 Amin Guitierrez de Pineres, S., and M J Ferrantino (2000), Export Dynamics and Economic Growth in Latin America Burlington, Vermont: Ashgate Publishing Ltd 58 Amurgo-Pacheco, Alberto and Martha D Pierola (2007), Patterns of Export Diversification in Developing Countries: Intensive and Extensive Margins, HEI Working Papers 20-2007 59 Arip, Mohammad Affendy , Yee, Lau Sim and Abdul Karim, Bakri (2010), Export Diversification and Economic Growth in Malaysia, MPRA Paper No 20588 60 Balassa, Bela (1965), Trade Liberalisation and Revealed' Comparative Advantage, The Manchester School 33(2) (May): 99-123 61 Barro, Robert (1997), Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study Cambridge: MIT Press 62 Bebczuk, Ricardo N and N Daniel Berrettoni, (2006), Explaining Export Diversification: An Empirical Analysis, CAF Research Program on Development Issues 63 Berthelemy J.C and Chauvin S (2000), Structural Changes in Asia andGrowth prospects after the crisis, CEPII Working papers ,No 00-09, 2000 64 Bonaglia F., and K Fukasaku (2003), Export Diversification in Low-Income Countries: An International Challenge after Doha, Working Paper No.209 OECD, Paris 65 Brainard, W and Cooper, R (1968), "Uncertainty and Diversification in International Trade", Food Research Institute Studies in Agricultural Economics, Trade and Development, 8:257-285 66 Bruno, Michael, and Easterly, William (1998), "Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth." Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 41, no 1:3-26 67 Bui Thi Lien (1997), Trade reform and Its Contributions to the Economic Development in Viet Nam, luan van thac si 68 Cadot, Oliver, Celine Carrere and Vanessa Strauss-Khan (2009), Export Diversification: What's Behind the Hump?, CERDI, Etudes et Documents, E 2009.31 69 Cabral, M H C and Veiga, P (2010), Determinants Of Export Diversification And Sophistication In Sub-Saharan Africa, FEUNL Working Paper Series wp550 Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia 70 Chandra, Vandana, Jessica Boccardo & Israel Osorio-Rodarte (2007), Export Diversification and Competitiveness in Developing Countries, Mimeograph: The World Bank 71 Chenery, H (1979), Structural Change and Development Policy, New York: Oxford University Press 161 72 Dawe, D (1996), "A new look at the effects of export instability on investment and growth", World development, 24(12): 1905-1914 73 De Pineres, S.A.G., and M Ferrantino (1997), "Export Diversification and Structural Dynamics in the Growth Process: The Case of Chile", Journal of Development Economics 52, 35-91 74 Dennis, Allen and Ben Shepherd (2007), Trade Costs, Barriers to Entry, and Export Diversification in Developing Countries, Policy Research Working Paper No 4368, World Bank, April 75 Dennis, A and Shepherd, A.(2011), "Trade Facilitation and Export Diversification", The World Economy 34 (1) p.lo1-122 76 Derosa, Dean A (1991), Increasing Export Diversification in Commodity-Exporting Countries: A Theoretical Analysis, IMF Working Paper WP/91/105 Washington DC: The IMF 77 Engle, R F., & Granger, C W J (1987), "Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing", Econometrica, 55, 251-276 78 Feder, G (1983), "On exports and economic growth", Journal of Development Economics, 12,59-73 79 Federico Bonaglia & Kichiro Fukasaku (2003), "Export Diversification In LowIncome Countries: An International Challenge After Doha" Development and Comp Systems 0307001, EconWPA 80 Feenstra, R., and H.L Kee (2004), Export Variety and Country Productivity, NBER Working Paper 10830, National Bureau of Economic Research: Cambridge MA 81 Funke, M., and R Ruhwedel (2005), "Export Variety and Economic Growth in East European Transition Economies", Economics of Transition, 13 (1): 25-50 82 Ghosh, Atish and Ostry, Jonathan (1994), "Export Instability and the External Balance in Developing Countries." IMF Working Papers No 94/8 83 Gourdon, Julien & Claudia Nassif (2009), Is FDI Increasing Export Diversification in MENA? Mimeograph: The World Bank 84 Greenaway, D., Morgan, W and Wright, P (2002), "Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing Countries." Journal of Development Economics, vol 67: 229-244 85 Grossman, G M and Helpman, E (1991), "Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, MIT Press 86 Gujarati, Damodar (2003), Basic Econometrics, McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc Fourth edition, Singapore: 87 Gutierrez de Pineres, Sheila A and Michael Ferrantino (1997), Export Diversification and Structural Change: Some Comparisons for Latin America, SSRN Working Paper No 36321 88 Gustavo Filipe Canle Ferreira (2009), The expansion and Diversification of the Export sector and Economic Growth: the Costa Riacan Experience, A Dissertation, Louisiana State University 162 89 Hausmann, R., and D Rodrik (2003), "Economic Development as Self-Discovery." Journal of Development Economics 72: 603-33 90 Hausmann, R., J Hwang, and D Rodrik (2005), What you Export Matters, Faculty Research Working Paper RWP05-063, Harvard University, John F Kennedy School of Government: Cambridge MA 91 Hausmann, R., and B Klinger (2006), Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space, Working Paper No 128 Center for International Development, Harvard University 92 Herzer, D., and F Nowak-Lehmann D (2006), "What Does Export Diversification Do for Growth? An Econometric Analysis", Applied Economics 38: 1825-1838 93 Hesse, H., (2008), Export Diversification and Economic Growth, Working Paper No 21, Commission on Growth and Development, World Bank, Washington, D.C 94 Imbs, J., and R Wacziarg (2003), "Stages of Diversification" American Economic Review 93(1): 63-86 95 Jansen, M (2004), Income Volatility in small and developing economies: export concentration matters, WTO Discussion Papers No 3, Geneva: World Trade Organization 96 Jean-Raphael Chaponniere & Jean-Pierre Cling (2009), "Vietnam's Export-Led Growth Model and Competition with China", Economie Internationale, No 118, 101-130 97 Jimenez, Emmanuel (1995), "Human and Physical Infrastructure: Public Investment and Pricing Policies in Developing Countries." In Handbook of Development Economics, vol 3B, eds Jere R 98 Jose Guilherme Reis and Thomas Farole (2012), Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic Toolkit, Available from: [http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-08213-8937-9] 99 Jung, W.S & Marshall, P.J (1985), "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries", Journal of Development Economics, 18, 1-12 100 Kenji, Y., & Mengistu, A A (2009), The Impacts of Vertical and Horizontal Export Diversification on Growth: An Empirical Study on Factors Explaining the Gap between Sub-Sahara Africa and East Asia's Performances, Ritsumeikan International Affair, 17, 41 101 Klinger, B., and D Lederman 2006, Diversification, Innovation, and Imitation inside the Global Technological Frontier, Research Policy Working Paper 3872 World Bank, Washington, D.C 102 Krugman, P (1979) "A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer and the World Distribution of Income", Journal of Political Economy 87: 253-66 103 Krugman, P., & Obstfeld, D (2003), "International Economics: Theory and Policy" (754, Trans 6th ed.) Boston: Pearson Education, Inc 104 Kuznets, S (1966), Modern Economic Growth: Rate, Structure and Spread, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press 163 105 Lall, S (2000), The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Exports, 1985-1998, Queen Elizabeth House Working Paper no 44 University of Oxford 106 Lederman, D., and W F Maloney 2007, "Trade Structure and Growth." Natural Resources: Neither Curse Nor Destiny, D Lederman and W.F Maloney, eds Palo Alto: Stanford University Press 107 Lim, J J and Saborowski, C (2011), Export diversification in a transitioning economy : the case of Syria, Policy Research Working Paper Series 5811, The World Bank 108 Love, James (1983), "Concentration, Diversification and Earnings Instability: Some Evidence on Developing Countries' Exports of Manufactures and Primary Products", World Development, vol.11, no.9: 787-793 109 Mankiw, G N., D Romer, and D.N Weil (1992), "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 407-37 110 Manuel R Agosin, Roberto Alvarez & Claudio Bravo-Ortega (2009), Determinants of Export Diversification around the World: 1962-2000, Working Paper so 309, Universidad De Chile 111 Matthee, M.and Naude, W (2007), Export diversity and regional growth: Empirical evidence from South Africa, United Nations University Research Paper No 2007/11 112 Mohammad Akbar & Karachi Zareen F Naqvi (2000), "Export Diversification and the Structural Dynamics in the Growth Process: The Case of Pakistan", The Pakistan Development Review 39 : Part II (Winter 2000) pp 573-589 113 Naude, Wim and Riaan Rossouw (2008), Export Diversification and Specialization in South Africa: Extent and Impact, Research Paper No 2008/93, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) 114 North, D.0 (1994), Institutions and Productivity in History, St.Louis, MO: Washington University 115 Parteka, A and Tamberi, M (2008), Determinants of Export Diversification: An Empirical Investigation, Universita Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Economia Quaderno di Ricerca No 327 116 Petersson, L (2005), "Export Diversification and Intra-Industry Trade in South Africa", South African Journal of Economics, 73 (4): 785-802 117 Pineres, S.A.G and Ferrantino, M (1997), "Export Diversification and Structural Dynamics in the Growth Process: The Case of Chile", Journal of Development Economics, 52:375-391 118 Osakwe, Patrick (2007), "Foreign Aid, Resources, and Export Diversification in Africa: A New Test of Existing Theories", African Trade Policy Paper 61, Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa 119 Pham Mai Anh (2008), "Can Viet Nam's Economic Growth be Explained by Investment or Exports: A VAR Analysis" VDF Working paper 120 Phan Minh Ng9c va cong w (2003), "Exports and Long-run Growth in Viet Nam 1976-2001", có tai dia chi [www.grips.ac.jp/vietnam/WS030920NgocPaper.doc] 164 121 Phan Thi Nhirrl, Charles Harvie, Tran Van Hoa (2006), "Viet Nam's Economic Transition, Policies, Issues and Prospects, The ICFAI University Press, 52, Nagarjuna Hill, Punjagutta Hyderabad, India 122 Phan Ti6n Ng9c (2004), Analyzing Effects of Exports on Viet Nam's Economic Growth, 1u4n van thqc si 123 Phan Ti6n Ngoc (2005): "Vietnam's Foreign Trade in World Economic Integration Process", Vietnam Economic Review, s6 04/2005 124 Presbish, R (1950), The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principal problems, United Nations, New-York 125 Romer, Paul M (1990), "Endogenous Technological Change." Journal of Political Economy, vol 98,no 5: 71-102 126 Rodrik, D (2005), "Policies for Economic Diversification." CEPAL Review 87: 723 127 Rodrik, Dani (2007), Specialization or diversification, 16 May 2007 Dani Rodrik's weblog, c6 tai dia chi http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks weblog/2007/05 /specialization_.html [2 March 2009] 128 Salomon Samen (2010), A Primer on Export Diversification: Key Concepts, Theoretical underpinnings and Empirical Evidence" WB Working paper 129 Sanjay Matadeen (2011), Export Diversification and Economic Growth in Mauritius, Msc Thesis, Lund University 130 Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M., (2001), Natural Resources and Economic Development The curse of natural resources, European Economic Review 45 (2001) 827-838 131 Singer, H.W (1950), "The distribution of Trade between Investing and Borrowing Countries" American Economic Review, Vol 40, May 1950, pp.531- 548 132 Shepherd, B (2010), "Geographical Diversification of Developing Country Exports", World Development 38(9), p 1217-1228 133 Ssemogerere, Geremina and Kasekende, L A (1994), Constraints to the Development and Diversification of Non-traditional Exports in Uganda (1981-90), African Economic Research Consortium Research Paper 28, Nairobi 134 Stiglitz, Joseph E (2006), "Aid for Trade" Paper Prepared for the Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, Tokyo, Japan, May 29-30, 2006 135 Syrquin, M (1989), "Patterns of Structural Change." in Handbook of Economic Development, Chenery and T N Srinavasan, eds Amsterdam: Elsevier Science Publishers 136 Timothy G Taylor & Brian Francis (2003), "Agricultural export diversification in Latin America and the Caribbean", Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics; 2003; 35, ABI/INFORM Global pg 77 137 Taylor, T (2007), "Export Diversification in Latin America and the Caribbean" The Journal of the Caribbean Agro-Economic Society (CAES), 7(1), 157-175 138 Thirlwall, A.P (2003), Trade, the Balance of Payments and Exchange Rate policy in Developing Countries, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar 165 139 Toda, H Y., & Phillips, P C B (1993) "Vector Autoregression and Causality", Econometrica, 59, 229-255 140 United Nation (2004), Export Diversification and Economic Growth: the Experience of Selected Least Developed Countries, Development papers, No 24, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific 141 UNIDO (2012), Diversification vs specialization as alternative strategies for economic development: Can we settle a debate by looking at the empirical evidence?, Working Paper 03/2012 142 Vernon, R (1966) "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle." Quarterly Journal of Economics 80:190-207 143 Walter Enders (2009), Applied Econometric Times Series, Wiley & Sons, Inc 144 Wheeler, David and Mody, Ashoka (1992), "International Investment Location Decisions: The Case of U.S Firms." Journal of International Economics, vol 33, Issue 1-2: 57-76 145 Wood, Andrian and Mayer, Jorg (1998): "Africa's Export Structure in a Comparative Perspective." Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol 25, no 3: 369394 146 WTO (2009), The case for open trade Understanding the WTO: Basics, Available from: [http://www.wto.org/englishithewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact3_e.htm [2 March 2009] Ctic trang cid' va dtrang d'iln Website: http://chinhphu.vn/ http://www.mpi.gov.vn/ http:// www.moit.gov.vn/ http:// www.gso.gov.vn/ http:// www.customs.gov.vn/ http://data.worldbank.org/ http://www.adb.org/data/ http://www.econstats.com http://www.imforg/external/pubs/ 10 http://www.wto.org/ 166 [...]... binh quan dau ngtr6i Chi khi mot nen kinh t6 co sty vuot tr6i ctia gia tang GDP so vai tang truong dan s6 thi n'en kinh t6 do mai co tang truong thu nhap binh quan dau ngtred, hay not each khac, nguai dan cna nuac do mai c6 su tang truong ve thu nhap 5 1.1.3 Cac nhan to tac dOng toi tang tru*ng kinh to Tang truang kinh to la yau to quan trong nhat quy dinh phfic lgi kinh t6 cua nguai dan moi qu6c gia... dieu tiet nen kinh t6 Buac sang the kSt XX, lehiing hoang kinh te the giai dien ra nghiem tr9ng (thai kS7 1929-1933) dot cho thay cac ly7 thuyet ye tang truang kinh to truac day chua thyc six phan anh day du v'e nguyen nhan tang truang kinh t6 John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) yeti tac pharn "1_,y thuyet chung ve viec lam, lai suat va tien te" dot danh dau sly ra dei cua mot truang phai kinh to hoc mod... phi dOng vai tr6 quan tong d6i vai tang twang kinh kinh te (chinh tri, xa hOi, the Nhieu nha kinh t6 h9c the che lap luan cho rang: "The che la cau triic mang tinh thnc day can mot xa hOi, do do cac luat le, quy tac tao nen nen tang the die cua mot xa hOi se chi phi su phan b6 cac ngu6n luc ctia xa hOi va nen kinh te Nguai ta chi co the nhan ra tang twang kinh te xuyen su6t lich sir nh6 viec tao ra... lien quan den da clang hoa mat hang xuAt khau va tang truang kinh te MOt the che, chinh sach khong phi' hap se can tra sir phat trian ciia nen kinh te Ngugc lai, mot the cha, chinh sach phi' hop se too moi truang vi mo an dinh, kich thich cac chu the trong nen kinh to ma rOng dau tu, san xuat kinh doanh; nang cao hieu qua hog dOng cita nen kinh ta Nhu vay c6 the thAy, the cha chinh sach la nhom yau... xuat khau * On dinh kinh ti vi mo On dinh kinh te vi mo la dieu kien quan tr9ng de tao ra tOc do tang truang nhanh va ben yang, d6ng thai clang vai tr6 quan tong d6i vai sg da clang hoa san xuat va xuat khau san pham Cac chi tieu kinh te vi mo nhu: lam phat, tST gia h6i dodi dugc On dinh la moi truang thuan lgi de cac chti the trong nen kinh te lap ke hoach, dAu tu ma rOng san xuat kinh doanh Ngugc lai,... su phat trien kinh t6 trong xa hOi cong nghiep Sy chuyen bien manh me ve khoa hoc ky thuat vao cuOi the kSt XIX vai hang 1°4 phat minh khoa h9c ra dai, nhieu tai nguyen duqc khai thac va sir dung lam cho kinh t6 the giai c6 birac phat trien manh me Truang phai kinh t6 hoc Tan Co dien ra dai yeti quan diem cho rang tien be) khoa h9c ky thuat la yeti to co ban thiic day sir phat trien kinh te H9 bac... hien sly tang twang ben virng va no con dugc sir dung trong viec so sanh mirc song dan cu gifra cac qu6c gia khac nhau 1.1.2.2 Do hrlYng tang tricong kinh to Trong phan tich kinh te, de phan anh mac dO mo rOng quy mo nen kinh te, khai niem t6c (10 tang twang kinh t6 thuang dugc sir dung Day la tST le phan tram giita thu nhlap (hay san lugng) tang them cila thai kST nghien cim so vai mirc thu nhap (san... truang kinh te Ngoai ra viec da clang hoa xuAt khau dan den su lan truyen kien thirc tir nhang link vue san xuat mai, k-y nang quan 13'7 va tiep thi mai sang cac linh vuc khac cua nen kinh te Nhu vay, trong mo hinh tang truang nOi sinh da clang h6a xuAt khAu la mot nhan to tac dOng den tang twang kinh te trong dai han [53], [56], [57], [89], [92], [93], [94], [115], [117] Ben canh cac nhan to kinh te,... phfic lgi kinh t6 cua nguai dan moi qu6c gia va con duang, nguan gac d(Tin tai tang trtrang kinh t" tit lau da tree thanh mot trong nhung cau hoi trung tam cua kinh to hoc phat tri'an Tir nhung nghien dru dAu tien cua cac nha kinh to hoc ca dian, dan cac 13'7 thuyat tang throng hien dai, nguan gac cua tang twang kinh to thay dai theo thai gian, va ngay cang dugc nhan thirc dAy du, fa- rang han va nhung... suAt" [114] Tuy nhien tac &Ong cua cac yeu to phi kinh to thu6ng gian tiep va rat khO luang hoa cu the duoc mire dO tac dOng oh no den tang truang kinh te Cac yeu to phi kinh te' khong tac dOng mot each rieng re ma mang tinh tong hop, dan xen, tat ca 16ng vao nhau, tao nen tinh chat d6ng thuan hay khong d6ng thuan trong 9 qua trinh tang truOng va phat trien kinh to dAt ntrov Chinh vi \ay ma ngued to kh6