BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO NGÂN HÀNG NHÀ NƢỚC VIỆT NAM TRƢỜNG ĐẠI HỌC NGÂN HÀNG TP HỒ CHÍ MINH TRẦN NGỌC THÙY DƢƠNG CÁC YẾU TỐ ẢNH HƢỞNG ĐẾN RỦI RO TÍN DỤNG CỦA CÁC NGÂN HÀNG THƢƠNG MẠI VIỆT NAM KHÓA LUẬN[.]
BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO NGÂN HÀNG NHÀ NƢỚC VIỆT NAM TRƢỜNG ĐẠI HỌC NGÂN HÀNG TP HỒ CHÍ MINH TRẦN NGỌC THÙY DƢƠNG CÁC YẾU TỐ ẢNH HƢỞNG ĐẾN RỦI RO TÍN DỤNG CỦA CÁC NGÂN HÀNG THƢƠNG MẠI VIỆT NAM KHÓA LUẬN TỐT NGHIỆP Chuyên ngành: Tài – Ngân hàng Mã số: 34 02 01 Tai ngay!!! Ban co the xoa dong chu nay!!! TP HỒ CHÍ MINH, NĂM 2023 BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO NGÂN HÀNG NHÀ NƢỚC VIỆT NAM TRƢỜNG ĐẠI HỌC NGÂN HÀNG TP HỒ CHÍ MINH Họ tên sinh viên: TRẦN NGỌC THÙY DƢƠNG Mã số sinh viên: 050607190102 Lớp sinh hoạt: HQ7 – GE15 CÁC YẾU TỐ ẢNH HƢỞNG ĐẾN RỦI RO TÍN DỤNG CỦA CÁC NGÂN HÀNG THƢƠNG MẠI VIỆT NAM KHÓA LUẬN TỐT NGHIỆP Chuyên ngành: Tài – Ngân hàng Mã số: 34 02 01 NGƢỜI HƢỚNG DẪN KHOA HỌC TS LÊ VĂN HẢI TP HỒ CHÍ MINH, NĂM 2023 TÓM TẮT KHÓA LUẬN Lý đề tài: Rủi ro tín dụng vấn đề chung đƣợc ngân hàng thƣơng mại quan tâm Có thể thấy đƣợc tầm quan trọng rủi ro tín dụng kinh tế thị trƣờng nói chung hoạt động kinh doanh ngân hàng nói riêng giai đoạn phát triển hội nhập tồn cầu Chính thế, tác giả thực nghiên cứu vấn đề góp phần thể đƣợc nhìn tổng quan nhân tố ảnh hƣởng đến rủi ro tín dụng từ năm 2011 đến năm 2021 30 NHTM Việt Nam Mục tiêu nghiên cứu: Xác định đo lƣờng mức độ ảnh hƣởng nhân tố đến rủi ro tín dụng ngân hàng thƣơng mại Việt Nam từ năm 2011 đến năm 2021, qua đề xuất số giải pháp nhằm giảm thiểu, hạn chếrủi ro nâng cao hiệu hoạt động NHTM Việt Nam Phƣơng pháp nghiên cứu: Khóa luận sửdụng phƣơng pháp nghiên cứu định lƣợng mơ hình OLS, FEM REM mơ hình ƣớc lƣợng GLS, GMM nhằm lựa chọn mơ hình phù hợp có nhân tốảnh hƣởng đến RRTD Kết nghiên cứu: Kết chƣơng cho thấy giai đoạn 2011 -2021 biến tỷ suất sinh lời vốn (ROE), tỷ lệ cho vay (LOAN), tác động ngƣợc chiều lên CR Các biến quy mô ngân hàng (SIZE), biên độ lãi ròng (NIM), tỷ lệ vốn (CAP), tăng trƣởng kinh tế (GDP), lạm phát (INF) tỷ lệ thất nghiệp (UNFEM) có ảnh hƣởng tích cực đến CR Bên cạnh đó, tăng trƣởng tín dụng (LGR) khơng ghi nhận ý nghĩa thống kê biến CR Kết luận khuyến nghị: Dựa kết quảnghiên cứu, tác giả đề xuất giải pháp, khuyến nghị NHTM góp phần giảm thiểu rủi ro tín dụng, nâng cao hiệu hoạt động, hàm ý sách đồng thời gợi ý định hƣớng nghiên cứu cảvềthời gian khơng gian nghiên cứu Từ khóa: Rủi ro tín dụng, ngân hàng thƣơng mại i ABSTRACT Being an intermediary to mobilize idle money through deposit taking services and then deliver it to those in need, the bank is a financial institution that is crucial to the functioning and growth of the economy To finance consumption and investment, there is a significant need for capital in the form of loan issuance Since the country transitioned to a market-based economy, demand for loans for consumption, expansion of company and investment, or addition to production, clients have been continuously growing in terms of number and quality Credit is the primary source of income for the bank's operations since it benefits from the spread between deposit and lending rates Yet, the rapid expansion of credit risk has several detrimental effects on the commercial banking system, including declining earnings, an increase in bad debts, and a reduction in liquidity As a result, it demonstrates that credit risk is the main risk that banks have while establishing credit development, proving that the issue is neither exclusive to banks nor nations That is a global issue When a consumer requests a loan, banks will immediately set aside a particular sum to cover the losses brought on by credit risks in order to reduce the risk of lending to that customer The term "credit risk provision" refers to this item Since it is the primary cause of variations in the profit and capital position of commercial banks, the policy on provision for credit losses is crucial in determining the stability of a financial system The profitability of the bank must therefore be demonstrated by study and research This study will assist bank executives in addressing the issue of commercial banks' profitability in Vietnam The author gathered information about 30 Vietnam commercial banks from their annual financial statements between 2011 and 2021 that were listed on the Vietnamese Stock Exchange The profitability metrics for bank size (SIZE), return on equity (ROE), net profit margin (NIM), bank capital ratio (CAP), bank loan ratio (LOAN), credit growth rate (LGR), GDP growth, inflation rate (INF), and unemployment rate ii were then calculated (UNEM) The author utilizes Stata 14's quantitative analysis application to perform statistical procedures that characterize the data after gathering and calculating the variables Consistent results are obtained while assessing the correlation matrix between variables The guidelines for the author's use of regression models, including regression modeling, to construct economic models to assess credit risk variables and other factors affecting the profitability ratios of Vietnamese commercial banks OLS, FEM, and REM rules combined; Then, apply the Hausman theory and test to choose the best model between FEM and REM, then look for flaws in the current model and acknowledge that it isn't perfect Finally, utilize the FGLS model to fix flaws Based on the findings, the author This is regarded as the foundation, research summary, and recommendations made by the author to limit and help reduce credit risks at Vietnamese commercial banks The report makes a number of recommendations to increase the profitability of commercial banks based on empirical findings and the business performance of Vietnamese commercial banks in recent years The recommendations are founded on lowering credit risk while still ensuring caution in the bank's day-to-day operations connected to the reduction of credit risk provisions on the basis of effective management of the bad debt position In order to boost bank profitability, commercial banks must also focus on raising liquidity and making effective use of savings accounts In addition, adhering to the credit risk provision concept in the banking system and receiving government or state bank support for credit policies is a sufficient prerequisite for the establishment of a sustainable, healthy banking system iii LỜI CAM ĐOAN Khóa luận cơng trình nghiên cứu riêng tác giả, kết nghiên cứu trung thực, khơng có nội dung đƣợc cơng bố trƣớc nội dung ngƣời khác thực ngoại trừ trích dẫn đƣợc dẫn nguồn đầy đủ khóa luận Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh, ngày….tháng….năm 2023 Xác nhận tác giả Trần Ngọc Thùy Dƣơng iv LỜI CẢM ƠN Đầu tiên, em xin bày tỏ lòng biết ơn chân thành đến giảng viên hƣớng dẫn TS Lê Văn Hải hỗ trợ giúp đỡ em suốt thời gian thực khóa luận tốt nghiệp Với cố gắng nỗ lực nghiên cứu hồn thành khóa luận nhƣng thời gian nghiên cứu kiến thức thân có hạn nên khơng thể tránh khỏi thiếu sót Em mong nhận đƣợc lời nhận xét đóng góp Q thầy để khóa luận hồn thiện có giá trị thực tiễn Em xin chân thành cảm ơn v MỤC LỤC TÓM TẮT KHÓA LUẬN i ABSTRACT .ii LỜI CAM ĐOAN iv LỜI CẢM ƠN v DANH MỤC TỪ VIẾT TẮT ix DANH MỤC BẢNG, BIỂU ĐỒ, HÌNH xi CHƢƠNG GIỚI THIỆU ĐỀ TÀI NGHIÊN CỨU 1.1 TÍNH CẤP THIẾT VÀ LÝ DO CHỌN ĐỀ TÀI 1.2 MỤC TIÊU ĐỀ TÀI 1.2.1 Mục tiêu tổng quát: 1.2.2 Mục tiêu cụ thể: 1.3 CÂU HỎI NGHIÊN CỨU 1.4 ĐỐI TƢỢNG VÀ PHẠM VI NGHIÊN CỨU 1.5 PHƢƠNG PHÁP NGHIÊN CỨU 1.6 TÍNH ĐĨNG GÓP ĐỀ TÀI 1.7 KẾT CẤU ĐỀ TÀI TÓM TẮT CHƢƠNG 1: CHƢƠNG CƠ SỞ LÝ THUYẾT VÀ TỔNG QUAN NGHIÊN CỨU 2.1 CƠ SỞ LÝ LUẬN VỀ RỦI RO TÍN DỤNG 2.1.1 Tín dụng ngân hàng thƣơng mại 2.1.2 Rủi ro tín dụng NHTM 10 vi 2.2 TỔNG QUAN CÁC NGHIÊN CỨU CÓ LIÊN QUAN 16 2.2.1 Lƣợc khảo nghiên cứu có liên quan 16 2.2.2 Đánh giá nghiên cứu 25 2.2.3 Khoảng trống nghiên cứu 27 TÓM TẮT CHƢƠNG 2: 28 CHƢƠNG MƠ HÌNH NGHIÊN CỨU 29 3.1 QUY TRÌNH NGHIÊN CỨU 29 3.2 DỮ LIỆU NGHIÊN CỨU 31 3.3 MƠ HÌNH NGHIÊN CỨU 31 3.4 GIẢI THÍCH CÁC BIẾN 33 3.5 PHƢƠNG PHÁP NGHIÊN CỨU 36 3.5.1 Lựa chọn phƣơng pháp hồi quy phù hợp 36 3.5.2 Các kiểm định liên quan 38 TÓM TẮT CHƢƠNG 3: 41 CHƢƠNG KẾT QUẢ NGHIÊN CỨU VÀ THẢO LUẬN 43 4.1 KẾT QUẢ NGHIÊN CỨU VÀ CÁC KIỂM ĐỊNH 43 4.1.1 Thống kê mô tả biến 43 4.2 PHÂN TÍCH TƢƠNG QUAN VÀ ĐA CỘNG TUYẾN 46 4.3 KIỂM ĐỊNH MƠ HÌNH 47 4.3.1 Lựa chọn mơ hình hồi quy tốt biến phụ thuộc CR 47 4.3.2 Kiểm định mơ hình hồi quy tốt biến phụ thuộc CR 53 vii 25 TPB Ngân hàng TMCP Tiên Phong 2011 - 2021 26 VAB Ngân hàng TMCP Việt Á 2011 - 2021 27 VBB Ngân hàng TMCP Việt Nam Thƣơng Tín 2011 - 2021 28 VCB Ngân hàng TMCP Ngoại thƣơng Việt Nam 2011 - 2021 29 VIB Ngân hàng TMCP Quốc tế Việt Nam 2011 - 2021 30 VPB Ngân hàng TMCP Việt Nam Thịnh Vƣợng 2011 - 2021 75 PHỤ LỤC 2: Dữ liệu 30 NHTM đƣợc thu thập từ năm 2011 đến năm 2021 BANK ABB ABB ABB ABB ABB ABB ABB ABB ABB ABB ABB ACB ACB ACB ACB ACB ACB ACB ACB ACB ACB ACB BAB BAB BAB BAB BAB BAB BAB BID BID BID BID BID BID BID BID YEAR 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CR SIZE ROE NIM 0.029 31.36 0.065 0.045 0.009 31.46 0.081 0.037 0.015 31.69 0.024 0.022 0.017 31.84 0.020 0.022 0.022 31.8 0.016 0.026 0.017 31.94 0.042 0.025 0.010 32.07 0.080 0.026 0.006 32.13 0.104 0.023 0.009 32.26 0.128 0.024 0.008 32.39 0.125 0.020 0.011 32.43 0.133 0.025 0.003 33.27 0.268 0.024 0.005 32.8 0.062 0.039 0.008 32.75 0.066 0.026 0.009 32.82 0.077 0.027 0.007 32.94 0.080 0.029 0.008 33.08 0.094 0.029 0.013 33.28 0.132 0.030 0.004 33.43 0.244 0.031 0.001 33.58 0.216 0.032 0.003 33.73 0.217 0.033 0.009 33.9 0.214 0.036 0.004 31.78 0.072 0.017 0.001 31.96 0.086 0.018 0.005 32.15 0.095 0.018 0.004 32.21 0.096 0.018 0.002 32.31 0.096 0.018 0.003 32.39 0.070 0.017 0.003 32.42 0.080 0.018 0.016 33.64 0.131 0.031 0.011 33.81 0.097 0.019 0.017 33.94 0.126 0.025 0.016 34.11 0.150 0.026 0.010 34.38 0.013 0.023 0.013 34.55 0.011 0.023 0.017 34.72 0.011 0.026 0.019 34.81 0.009 0.027 CAP LOAN LGR GDP INF UNEM 0.114 0.472 -0.003 0.064 0.187 0.010 0.106 0.399 -0.064 0.055 0.091 0.010 0.100 0.399 0.254 0.056 0.066 0.013 0.085 0.378 0.109 0.064 0.041 0.013 0.090 0.474 0.197 0.070 0.006 0.019 0.079 0.529 0.284 0.067 0.027 0.019 0.072 0.558 0.202 0.069 0.035 0.019 0.076 0.573 0.093 0.075 0.035 0.012 0.076 0.547 0.088 0.074 0.028 0.019 0.077 0.538 0.116 0.029 0.032 0.021 0.097 0.564 0.089 0.026 0.018 0.024 0.043 0.362 0.177 0.064 0.187 0.010 0.072 0.575 -0.005 0.055 0.091 0.010 0.075 0.634 0.043 0.056 0.066 0.013 0.069 0.639 0.086 0.064 0.041 0.013 0.063 0.658 0.155 0.070 0.006 0.019 0.060 0.692 0.220 0.067 0.027 0.019 0.056 0.692 0.217 0.069 0.035 0.019 0.064 0.692 0.159 0.075 0.035 0.012 0.072 0.694 0.167 0.074 0.028 0.019 0.080 0.694 0.159 0.029 0.032 0.021 0.085 0.675 0.154 0.026 0.018 0.024 0.079 0.650 0.147 0.070 0.006 0.019 0.076 0.628 0.155 0.067 0.027 0.019 0.069 0.598 0.143 0.069 0.035 0.019 0.073 0.653 0.163 0.075 0.035 0.012 0.072 0.670 0.140 0.074 0.028 0.019 0.071 0.671 0.088 0.029 0.032 0.021 0.076 0.697 0.063 0.026 0.018 0.024 0.060 0.710 0.157 0.064 0.187 0.010 0.055 0.689 0.159 0.055 0.091 0.010 0.058 0.702 0.152 0.056 0.066 0.013 0.051 0.675 0.141 0.064 0.041 0.013 0.050 0.695 0.346 0.070 0.006 0.019 0.044 0.709 0.208 0.067 0.027 0.019 0.041 0.712 0.199 0.069 0.035 0.019 0.042 0.744 0.141 0.075 0.035 0.012 76 BID BID BID Baovietbank Baovietbank Baovietbank Baovietbank Baovietbank Baovietbank Baovietbank Baovietbank Baovietbank Baovietbank Baovietbank BVB BVB BVB BVB BVB BVB BVB BVB BVB BVB CTG CTG CTG CTG CTG CTG CTG CTG CTG CTG CTG EIB EIB EIB EIB EIB 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0.018 0.020 0.022 0.006 0.009 0.015 0.007 0.009 0.014 0.019 0.013 0.015 0.009 0.028 0.005 0.006 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.009 0.008 0.013 0.017 0.013 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.011 0.008 0.013 0.012 0.017 0.004 0.003 0.004 0.010 0.017 34.94 34.96 35.11 31.121 31.123 31.225 31.383 31.487 31.535 31.689 31.747 31.747 31.777 31.816 30.66 30.77 30.88 31 31.11 31.32 31.47 31.58 31.74 31.97 33.76 33.85 33.99 34.13 34.29 34.49 34.63 34.69 34.75 34.83 34.97 32.84 32.77 32.77 32.71 32.46 0.006 0.091 0.126 0.048 0.028 0.033 0.032 0.026 0.028 0.034 0.023 0.024 0.016 0.018 0.063 0.032 0.050 0.016 0.001 0.010 0.027 0.034 0.041 0.054 0.220 0.183 0.107 0.104 0.102 0.114 0.117 0.080 1.750 1.452 1.033 0.186 0.135 0.045 0.004 0.003 0.024 0.024 0.027 0.028 0.030 0.029 0.016 0.015 0.018 0.018 0.011 0.012 0.009 0.014 0.023 0.021 0.020 0.015 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.018 0.018 0.019 0.044 0.037 0.032 0.027 0.024 0.024 0.025 0.019 0.027 0.027 0.027 0.029 0.029 0.029 0.016 0.017 0.052 0.053 0.049 0.126 0.237 0.179 0.130 0.109 0.099 0.072 0.061 0.060 0.061 0.056 0.158 0.140 0.129 0.114 0.102 0.084 0.074 0.072 0.064 0.061 0.062 0.067 0.094 0.083 0.072 0.064 0.058 0.058 0.062 0.064 0.061 0.089 0.093 0.086 0.087 0.105 77 0.740 0.788 0.752 0.502 0.498 0.468 0.402 0.416 0.439 0.438 0.455 0.425 0.411 0.346 0.373 0.430 0.498 0.542 0.643 0.621 0.630 0.647 0.643 0.597 0.630 0.655 0.647 0.659 0.684 0.691 0.714 0.732 0.743 0.748 0.721 0.403 0.437 0.487 0.535 0.672 0.129 0.084 0.109 0.188 -0.003 0.189 0.236 0.316 0.178 0.422 0.188 -0.045 -0.068 0.103 0.779 0.285 0.297 0.225 0.322 0.191 0.184 0.170 0.249 0.162 0.255 0.135 0.131 0.168 0.225 0.228 0.194 0.089 0.083 0.087 0.102 0.200 0.004 0.112 0.042 -0.026 0.074 0.029 0.026 0.064 0.055 0.056 0.064 0.070 0.067 0.069 0.075 0.074 0.029 0.026 0.055 0.056 0.064 0.070 0.067 0.069 0.075 0.074 0.029 0.026 0.064 0.055 0.056 0.064 0.070 0.067 0.069 0.075 0.074 0.029 0.026 0.064 0.055 0.056 0.064 0.070 0.028 0.032 0.018 0.187 0.091 0.066 0.041 0.006 0.027 0.035 0.035 0.028 0.032 0.018 0.091 0.066 0.041 0.006 0.027 0.035 0.035 0.028 0.032 0.018 0.187 0.091 0.066 0.041 0.006 0.027 0.035 0.035 0.028 0.032 0.018 0.187 0.091 0.066 0.041 0.006 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 EIB EIB EIB EIB EIB EIB HDB HDB HDB HDB HDB HDB HDB HDB HDB HDB HDB KLB KLB KLB KLB KLB KLB KLB KLB KLB KLB KLB LPB LPB LPB LPB LPB LPB LPB LPB LPB LPB LPB MBB 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 0.013 0.006 0.007 0.006 0.007 0.017 0.006 0.014 0.004 0.011 0.017 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.004 0.008 0.007 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.003 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.002 0.006 0.014 0.010 0.006 0.009 0.006 0.005 0.005 0.003 0.004 0.006 0.011 32.49 32.64 32.66 32.75 32.71 32.74 31.44 31.6 32.09 32.23 32.3 32.64 32.87 33.01 33.07 33.4 33.56 30.51 30.55 30.69 30.77 30.86 31.05 31.25 31.38 31.56 31.68 32.06 31.66 31.83 32.01 32.24 32.31 32.59 32.73 32.8 32.94 33.12 33.3 32.56 0.023 0.058 0.044 0.055 0.064 0.054 0.144 0.073 0.031 0.055 0.067 0.098 0.132 0.190 0.197 0.188 0.210 0.118 0.102 0.091 0.051 0.049 0.036 0.057 0.062 0.018 0.032 0.165 0.183 0.124 0.077 0.064 0.047 0.128 0.146 0.094 0.127 0.131 0.171 0.199 0.027 0.024 0.018 0.021 0.019 0.021 0.029 0.016 0.004 0.016 0.030 0.031 0.034 0.035 0.042 0.037 0.037 0.049 0.058 0.048 0.034 0.032 0.026 0.028 0.023 0.020 0.017 0.023 0.037 0.037 0.029 0.023 0.024 0.028 0.032 0.029 0.030 0.028 0.031 0.038 0.104 0.095 0.097 0.094 0.105 0.107 0.079 0.102 0.100 0.089 0.092 0.066 0.078 0.078 0.089 0.077 0.082 0.194 0.185 0.163 0.146 0.133 0.110 0.095 0.089 0.074 0.068 0.056 0.117 0.111 0.091 0.073 0.071 0.059 0.057 0.058 0.062 0.059 0.058 0.069 78 0.666 0.023 0.067 0.027 0.671 0.168 0.069 0.035 0.675 0.027 0.075 0.035 0.670 0.089 0.074 0.028 0.620 -0.113 0.029 0.032 0.683 0.139 0.026 0.018 0.304 0.177 0.064 0.187 0.397 0.529 0.055 0.091 0.503 1.068 0.056 0.066 0.417 -0.042 0.064 0.041 0.525 0.346 0.070 0.006 0.541 0.456 0.067 0.027 0.546 0.271 0.069 0.035 0.564 0.179 0.075 0.035 0.631 0.188 0.074 0.028 0.553 0.219 0.029 0.032 0.536 0.138 0.026 0.018 0.466 0.196 0.064 0.187 0.514 0.148 0.055 0.091 0.562 0.258 0.056 0.066 0.580 0.116 0.064 0.041 0.635 0.201 0.070 0.006 0.644 0.219 0.067 0.027 0.655 0.248 0.069 0.035 0.691 0.194 0.075 0.035 0.649 0.136 0.074 0.028 0.601 0.037 0.029 0.032 0.454 0.105 0.026 0.018 0.225 0.296 0.064 0.187 0.340 0.787 0.055 0.091 0.364 0.282 0.056 0.066 0.405 0.410 0.064 0.041 0.516 0.359 0.070 0.006 0.555 0.419 0.067 0.027 0.608 0.263 0.069 0.035 0.672 0.184 0.075 0.035 0.687 0.179 0.074 0.028 0.719 0.256 0.029 0.032 0.712 0.180 0.026 0.018 0.417 0.206 0.064 0.187 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 MBB MBB MBB MBB MBB MBB MBB MBB MBB MBB MSB MSB MSB MSB MSB MSB MSB MSB MSB MSB MSB NAB NAB NAB NAB NAB NAB NAB NAB NAB NAB NAB NVB NVB NVB NVB NVB NVB NVB NVB 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0.028 0.022 0.021 0.018 0.014 0.018 0.014 0.020 0.021 0.023 0.003 0.018 0.012 0.031 0.019 0.050 0.028 0.015 0.015 0.014 0.016 0.003 0.012 0.007 0.005 0.012 0.020 0.015 0.002 0.000 0.006 0.008 0.005 0.007 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.008 0.007 0.004 32.8 32.83 32.93 33.03 33.18 33.38 33.52 33.65 33.84 34.04 32.37 32.33 32.3 32.28 32.28 32.16 32.35 32.56 32.69 32.81 32.95 30.58 30.4 30.99 31.25 31.2 31.39 31.63 31.95 32.18 32.53 32.66 30.74 30.7 31 31.24 31.51 31.87 31.91 31.91 0.180 0.151 0.151 0.111 0.108 0.118 0.181 0.202 0.172 0.212 0.101 0.024 0.036 0.011 0.150 0.010 0.009 0.063 0.070 0.119 0.183 0.093 0.058 0.043 0.062 0.064 0.011 0.072 0.140 0.148 0.121 0.179 0.052 0.001 0.006 0.003 0.002 0.003 0.007 0.011 0.038 0.034 0.033 0.033 0.031 0.036 0.040 0.044 0.041 0.043 0.014 0.018 0.015 0.011 0.015 0.024 0.014 0.021 0.020 0.027 0.031 0.025 0.028 0.022 0.023 0.019 0.033 0.034 0.021 0.016 0.016 0.028 0.033 0.034 0.021 0.016 0.016 0.014 0.016 0.014 0.073 0.084 0.083 0.105 0.104 0.094 0.094 0.097 0.101 0.103 0.083 0.083 0.088 0.091 0.131 0.147 0.122 0.100 0.095 0.096 0.108 0.173 0.205 0.113 0.089 0.096 0.080 0.067 0.056 0.052 0.049 0.052 0.143 0.148 0.110 0.087 0.067 0.047 0.045 0.045 79 0.417 0.477 0.489 0.540 0.580 0.580 0.584 0.601 0.594 0.584 0.327 0.256 0.249 0.220 0.264 0.374 0.319 0.347 0.399 0.444 0.490 0.325 0.423 0.399 0.421 0.583 0.552 0.652 0.667 0.705 0.658 0.662 0.567 0.587 0.456 0.446 0.419 0.363 0.442 0.487 0.263 0.175 0.141 0.217 0.246 0.224 0.162 0.169 0.189 0.207 0.186 -0.246 -0.054 -0.139 0.197 0.261 0.032 0.335 0.313 0.252 0.272 0.313 -0.016 0.696 0.433 0.255 0.144 0.501 0.410 0.334 0.323 0.148 0.199 -0.007 0.047 0.240 0.230 0.239 0.267 0.111 0.055 0.056 0.064 0.070 0.067 0.069 0.075 0.074 0.029 0.026 0.064 0.055 0.056 0.064 0.070 0.067 0.069 0.075 0.074 0.029 0.026 0.064 0.055 0.056 0.064 0.070 0.067 0.069 0.075 0.074 0.029 0.026 0.064 0.055 0.056 0.064 0.070 0.067 0.069 0.075 0.091 0.066 0.041 0.006 0.027 0.035 0.035 0.028 0.032 0.018 0.187 0.091 0.066 0.041 0.006 0.027 0.035 0.035 0.028 0.032 0.018 0.187 0.091 0.066 0.041 0.006 0.027 0.035 0.035 0.028 0.032 0.018 0.187 0.091 0.066 0.041 0.006 0.027 0.035 0.035 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 NVB NVB NVB OCB OCB OCB OCB OCB OCB OCB OCB OCB OCB OCB PGB PGB PGB PGB PGB PGB PGB PGB PGB PGB PGB PVcomBank PVcomBank PVcomBank PVcomBank PVcomBank PVcomBank PVcomBank PVcomBank SCB SCB SCB SCB SCB SCB SCB 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0.009 0.021 0.006 0.006 0.015 0.015 0.014 0.013 0.009 0.005 0.017 0.013 0.014 0.010 0.009 0.021 0.012 0.007 0.013 0.012 0.022 0.024 0.023 0.011 0.007 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.005 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.010 0.013 0.007 0.003 32.02 32.13 31.93 30.87 30.94 31.12 31.3 31.53 31.79 32.07 32.24 32.4 32.66 32.85 30.5 30.59 30.84 30.88 30.84 30.84 31.01 31.03 31.08 31.22 31.33 31.035 31.994 31.057 31.102 31.148 31.148 31.215 31.283 31.161 31.174 31.258 31.384 31.493 31.558 31.647 0.010 0.014 0.054 0.000 0.016 0.048 0.000 0.017 0.058 0.081 0.035 0.148 0.060 0.043 0.139 0.061 0.038 0.121 0.055 0.028 0.103 0.050 0.027 0.085 0.082 0.026 0.074 0.133 0.028 0.073 0.200 0.034 0.088 0.224 0.035 0.097 0.203 0.033 0.114 0.202 0.031 0.118 0.187 0.062 0.147 0.083 0.051 0.166 0.012 0.022 0.129 0.044 0.025 0.130 0.012 0.027 0.137 0.035 0.028 0.141 0.018 0.027 0.122 0.034 0.028 0.123 0.023 0.027 0.119 0.043 0.025 0.109 0.062 0.018 0.103 0.017 -0.005 0.090 0.007 0.004 0.102 0.007 0.008 0.084 0.009 0.009 0.080 0.009 0.007 0.073 0.018 0.011 0.063 0.007 0.009 0.058 0.008 0.009 0.055 0.000 0.015 0.078 0.006 0.021 0.076 0.003 0.011 0.072 0.007 0.008 0.054 0.005 0.014 0.049 0.006 0.008 0.040 0.008 0.004 0.035 80 0.466 0.062 0.074 0.028 0.445 0.063 0.029 0.032 0.555 0.027 0.026 0.018 0.538 0.189 0.064 0.187 0.617 0.238 0.055 0.091 0.609 0.180 0.056 0.066 0.541 0.059 0.064 0.041 0.555 0.297 0.070 0.006 0.598 0.391 0.067 0.027 0.567 0.252 0.069 0.035 0.558 0.167 0.075 0.035 0.596 0.262 0.074 0.028 0.579 0.255 0.029 0.032 0.547 0.143 0.026 0.018 0.678 0.106 0.064 0.187 0.700 0.129 0.055 0.091 0.550 0.016 0.056 0.066 0.556 0.048 0.064 0.041 0.636 0.096 0.070 0.006 0.699 0.105 0.067 0.027 0.723 0.221 0.069 0.035 0.730 0.030 0.075 0.035 0.742 0.074 0.074 0.028 0.704 0.086 0.029 0.032 0.673 0.071 0.026 0.018 0.387 0.040 0.064 0.041 0.401 -0.057 0.070 0.006 0.432 0.248 0.067 0.027 0.460 0.179 0.069 0.035 0.491 0.184 0.075 0.035 0.420 0.118 0.074 0.028 0.426 0.077 0.029 0.032 0.428 0.059 0.026 0.018 0.445 0.988 0.064 0.187 0.584 0.353 0.055 0.091 0.488 0.014 0.056 0.066 0.550 0.509 0.064 0.041 0.543 0.270 0.070 0.006 0.608 0.300 0.067 0.027 0.595 0.200 0.069 0.035 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 SCB SCB SCB SCB SGB SGB SGB SGB SGB SGB SGB SGB SGB SGB SGB SHB SHB SHB SHB SHB SHB SHB SHB SHB SHB SHB SSB SSB SSB SSB SSB SSB SSB SSB STB STB STB STB STB STB 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0.007 0.007 0.004 0.006 0.018 0.026 0.015 0.022 0.023 0.011 0.020 0.025 0.014 0.010 0.010 0.004 0.010 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.008 0.008 0.007 0.009 0.015 0.007 0.006 0.002 0.011 0.008 0.007 0.019 0.006 0.010 0.005 0.014 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.004 31.707 0.011 31.707 0.010 31.754 0.032 31.847 0.021 30.36 0.089 30.33 0.087 30.32 0.049 30.39 0.052 30.51 0.013 30.58 0.040 30.69 0.016 30.65 0.012 30.76 0.041 30.81 0.027 30.83 0.033 31.89 0.129 32.39 0.177 32.6 -0.013 32.76 0.075 32.95 0.071 33.09 0.069 33.29 0.105 33.41 0.102 33.53 0.131 33.65 0.108 33.86 0.141 32.02 0.016 32.07 0.016 32.27 0.020 32.46 0.049 32.58 0.059 32.69 0.101 32.83 0.100 32.99 0.140 32.58 0.137 32.66 0.073 32.71 0.131 32.88 0.122 33.31 0.051 33.44 0.004 0.006 0.007 0.006 0.080 0.055 0.065 0.047 0.043 0.035 0.033 0.031 0.032 0.032 0.025 0.024 0.027 0.016 0.015 0.016 0.018 0.018 0.017 0.017 0.021 0.024 0.031 0.009 0.014 0.018 0.016 0.017 0.018 0.017 0.025 0.023 0.041 0.043 0.041 0.035 0.023 0.033 0.029 0.027 0.032 0.215 0.238 0.238 0.220 0.191 0.185 0.160 0.169 0.156 0.151 0.151 0.059 0.050 0.066 0.062 0.055 0.057 0.051 0.051 0.051 0.058 0.070 0.071 0.068 0.057 0.049 0.059 0.069 0.076 0.088 0.103 0.090 0.106 0.095 0.076 0.067 81 0.588 0.527 0.522 0.494 0.712 0.724 0.720 0.704 0.649 0.653 0.656 0.666 0.633 0.640 0.664 0.406 0.478 0.524 0.610 0.635 0.686 0.683 0.662 0.717 0.732 0.706 0.394 0.501 0.565 0.559 0.591 0.619 0.598 0.594 0.564 0.624 0.677 0.667 0.629 0.592 0.133 0.106 0.052 0.078 0.062 -0.018 -0.017 0.054 0.034 0.079 0.125 -0.031 0.065 0.062 0.066 0.898 0.195 0.933 0.353 0.368 0.262 0.235 0.217 0.095 0.225 0.184 0.356 0.344 0.377 0.196 0.187 0.174 0.105 0.167 -0.024 0.188 0.153 0.158 0.452 0.070 0.075 0.074 0.029 0.026 0.064 0.055 0.056 0.064 0.070 0.067 0.069 0.075 0.074 0.029 0.026 0.064 0.055 0.056 0.064 0.070 0.067 0.069 0.075 0.074 0.029 0.026 0.064 0.070 0.067 0.069 0.075 0.074 0.029 0.026 0.064 0.055 0.056 0.064 0.070 0.067 0.035 0.028 0.032 0.018 0.187 0.091 0.066 0.041 0.006 0.027 0.035 0.035 0.028 0.032 0.018 0.187 0.091 0.066 0.041 0.006 0.027 0.035 0.035 0.028 0.032 0.018 0.041 0.006 0.027 0.035 0.035 0.028 0.032 0.018 0.187 0.091 0.066 0.041 0.006 0.027 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 STB STB STB STB STB TCB TCB TCB TCB TCB TCB TCB TCB TCB TCB TCB TPB TPB TPB TPB TPB TPB TPB TPB TPB TPB TPB VAB VAB VAB VAB VAB VAB VAB VAB VAB VAB VAB VBB VBB 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2015 2016 0.004 33.54 0.051 0.012 0.063 0.006 33.64 0.073 0.014 0.061 0.007 33.75 0.092 0.019 0.059 0.009 33.83 0.093 0.020 0.059 0.009 33.89 0.100 0.023 0.066 0.005 32.83 0.252 0.029 0.069 0.022 32.82 0.058 0.028 0.074 0.020 32.7 0.047 0.027 0.088 0.028 32.8 0.072 0.033 0.085 0.033 32.89 0.093 0.038 0.086 0.026 33.09 0.161 0.035 0.083 0.023 33.23 0.239 0.033 0.100 0.012 33.4 0.164 0.035 0.161 0.004 33.58 0.165 0.037 0.162 0.009 33.72 0.169 0.043 0.170 0.008 33.97 0.198 0.047 0.164 0.000 30.85 -0.440 -0.010 0.067 0.001 30.35 0.031 0.018 0.220 0.000 31.1 0.084 0.019 0.115 0.000 31.57 0.118 0.019 0.082 0.005 31.96 0.124 0.018 0.063 0.006 32.29 0.099 0.020 0.054 0.007 32.45 0.144 0.026 0.054 0.007 32.54 0.170 0.032 0.078 0.014 32.73 0.237 0.034 0.080 0.015 32.96 0.210 0.037 0.081 0.000 33.31 0.235 0.030 0.089 0.000 30.75 0.071 0.022 0.159 0.001 30.83 0.046 0.014 0.144 0.002 30.93 0.017 0.017 0.133 0.001 31.2 0.011 0.011 0.102 0.016 31.37 0.026 0.026 0.094 0.012 31.75 0.025 0.014 0.065 0.009 31.8 0.024 0.018 0.064 0.012 31.9 0.028 0.016 0.059 0.009 31.97 0.047 0.013 0.058 0.016 32.09 0.058 0.015 0.066 0.009 32.25 0.103 0.015 0.063 0.004 31.519 -0.046 0.007 0.083 0.003 31.565 0.022 0.013 0.084 82 0.598 0.121 0.069 0.035 0.623 0.149 0.075 0.035 0.644 0.154 0.074 0.028 0.680 0.147 0.029 0.032 0.731 0.138 0.026 0.018 0.347 0.196 0.064 0.187 0.373 0.073 0.055 0.091 0.435 0.029 0.056 0.066 0.451 0.148 0.064 0.041 0.575 0.392 0.070 0.006 0.600 0.278 0.067 0.027 0.590 0.126 0.069 0.035 0.491 -0.009 0.075 0.035 0.594 0.446 0.074 0.028 0.626 0.208 0.029 0.032 0.604 0.248 0.026 0.018 0.145 -0.301 0.064 0.187 0.396 0.662 0.055 0.091 0.368 0.971 0.056 0.066 0.382 0.663 0.064 0.041 0.367 0.425 0.070 0.006 0.437 0.653 0.067 0.027 0.506 0.357 0.069 0.035 0.560 0.216 0.075 0.035 0.574 0.238 0.074 0.028 0.572 0.250 0.029 0.032 0.476 0.101 0.026 0.018 0.506 -0.130 0.064 0.187 0.516 0.115 0.055 0.091 0.525 0.118 0.056 0.066 0.439 0.101 0.064 0.041 0.479 0.282 0.070 0.006 0.488 0.497 0.067 0.027 0.526 0.130 0.069 0.035 0.526 0.107 0.075 0.035 0.551 0.124 0.074 0.028 0.553 0.134 0.029 0.032 0.533 0.126 0.026 0.018 0.662 0.245 0.070 0.006 0.765 0.284 0.067 0.027 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.019 0.019 VBB VBB VBB VBB VBB VCB VCB VCB VCB VCB VCB VCB VCB VCB VCB VCB VIB VIB VIB VIB VIB VIB VIB VIB VIB VIB VIB VPB VPB VPB VPB VPB VPB VPB VPB VPB VPB VPB 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.010 0.017 0.014 0.013 0.015 0.016 0.014 0.012 0.012 0.009 0.012 0.013 0.023 0.022 0.025 0.032 0.011 0.010 0.004 0.007 0.005 0.006 0.008 0.005 0.011 0.020 0.013 0.028 0.037 0.045 0.052 0.054 0.051 0.056 33.618 33.713 33.713 33.838 34.014 33.54 33.66 33.78 33.99 34.14 34.3 34.57 34.61 34.74 34.82 34.89 32.21 31.81 31.97 32.02 32.07 32.28 32.44 32.57 32.85 33.13 33.37 32.05 32.26 32.43 32.73 32.9 33.06 33.26 33.41 33.56 33.67 33.94 0.079 0.193 0.097 0.057 0.088 0.147 0.107 0.103 0.106 0.118 0.143 0.173 0.235 0.229 0.196 0.201 0.078 0.062 0.006 0.061 0.061 0.064 0.128 0.206 0.243 0.258 0.264 0.133 0.097 0.132 0.140 0.179 0.229 0.217 0.212 0.196 0.197 0.133 0.019 0.020 0.018 0.006 0.014 0.034 0.026 0.023 0.020 0.023 0.024 0.021 0.026 0.028 0.027 0.030 0.039 0.046 0.025 0.028 0.022 0.031 0.028 0.035 0.034 0.035 0.038 0.025 0.029 0.034 0.032 0.053 0.066 0.074 0.076 0.081 0.077 0.063 0.080 0.087 0.073 0.058 0.056 0.078 0.100 0.090 0.075 0.067 0.061 0.051 0.058 0.066 0.071 0.077 0.084 0.129 0.104 0.105 0.102 0.084 0.071 0.077 0.073 0.073 0.078 0.072 0.065 0.064 0.055 0.069 0.075 0.107 0.107 0.112 0.126 0.158 83 0.685 0.014 0.069 0.035 0.681 0.236 0.075 0.035 0.510 0.153 0.074 0.028 0.443 0.093 0.029 0.032 0.429 0.119 0.026 0.018 0.557 0.193 0.064 0.187 0.569 0.156 0.055 0.091 0.571 0.136 0.056 0.066 0.548 0.181 0.064 0.041 0.561 0.197 0.070 0.006 0.575 0.196 0.067 0.027 0.517 0.183 0.069 0.035 0.579 0.161 0.075 0.035 0.592 0.165 0.074 0.028 0.619 0.133 0.029 0.032 0.661 0.139 0.026 0.018 0.442 0.038 0.064 0.187 0.512 -0.222 0.055 0.091 0.446 0.030 0.056 0.066 0.462 0.087 0.064 0.041 0.558 0.261 0.070 0.006 0.566 0.258 0.067 0.027 0.641 0.334 0.069 0.035 0.685 0.207 0.075 0.035 0.693 0.343 0.074 0.028 0.686 0.312 0.029 0.032 0.643 0.187 0.026 0.018 0.349 0.150 0.064 0.187 0.356 0.265 0.055 0.091 0.428 0.420 0.056 0.066 0.473 0.489 0.064 0.041 0.593 0.489 0.070 0.006 0.623 0.239 0.067 0.027 0.646 0.259 0.069 0.035 0.676 0.217 0.075 0.035 0.671 0.159 0.074 0.028 0.683 0.131 0.029 0.032 0.631 0.206 0.026 0.018 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 0.010 0.010 0.013 0.013 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.021 0.024 PHỤ LỤC 3: Kết nghiên cứu Thống kê mô tả Kiểm định tƣơng quan biến Mơ hình Pooled OLS 84 Kiểm định đa cộng tuyến: Kiểm định phƣơng sai sai số thay đổi: 85 Ƣớc lƣợng hồi quy FEM Ƣớc lƣợng hồi quy REM 86 Kiểm định hausmam Kiểm định phƣơng sai sai số thay đổi FEM 10 Kiểm định tự tƣơng quan 87 11 Mơ hình GLS 88 12 Mơ hình GMM 89