Một số giải pháp hạn chế rủi ro đầu tư các dự án xây dựng khu đô thị tại tổng công ty đầu tư và phát triển nhà hà nội

2217 LV ThS DHKTQD TRUONG DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN *** _ TRAN THI THUC LE DAI HOC KTQD TRUNG TAM THONGTINTHUVIEN MOT SO GIAI PHAP HAN CHE RUI RO DAU TU CAC DU AN XAY DUNG KHU DO THI TAI • a • • TONG CONG TY DAU TU VA PHAT TRIEN NHA HA NOI CHUYEN NGANH: KINH IE DAU TU LU AN VAN THAC SY KINH TE NGUdl HUONG DAN KHOA HOC: TS NGUYEN HONG MINH DAI HOC K-POD JRUNGT4M5THONGTINTHUVIEN -, Ha Noi, Nam 2006 J MUC LUC MO DAU CHUONG 1: LY LU AN VE RUI RO VA RUI RO \6l CAC DU AN DAU TU XAY DUNG KHU DO THI 1.1 Rui ro dau tu va cac van de lien quan 1.1.1 Khai niern ve rui ro 1.1.2 Cac loai rui ro dau tit 1.1.2.1 Theo pham vi anh lutdng cua rui ro 1.1.2.2 Theo tinh chat cua rui ro 1.1.2.3 Rid ro tit cac tac dong cua moi trudng vimo 1.1.3 Rui ro xay voi du an dau tit 1.1.3.1 Rid ro dpha lap dit an 1.1.3.2 Rid ro dpha trien khai dit an 1.1.3.3 Rid ro dpha ket tliuc dit an 1.1.4 Nguyen nhan xay riii ro 1.1.4.1 Nguyen nhan anh lutdng va nhan tokhach quan 1.1.4.2 Nguyen nhan anh lutdng va nhan to chit quan 11 1.1.5 Phuong phdp phan tich riii ro cac du an dau tu 13 1.1.5.1 Phan tich nhay 14 1.1.5.2 Phan tich tinh huong .15 1.1.5.3 Phan tich mo phong 15 1.2 Rui ro dau tu xay dung khu thi 16 1.2.1 Bae diem cua hoqt dong dau tu xay dung khu thi 16 1.2.2 Cac riii ro ciia du cin dau tuxdy dung khu thi 17 1.2.2.1 Rui ro co che chfnh sach 17 1.2.2.2 Rid ro xay dung va hoan theinh cong trinh 18 1.2.2.3 Riii ro ve thi trUdng, thu nhqp va toan 19 1.2.2.4 Rid ro ve cung cap dau vao 19 1.2.2.5 Rid ro ky thuat, van hanh, bao tri 20 1.2.2.6 Rid ro Moi tritdng va xd hoi 20 1.22.7 Rui ro kinh te vi mo 20 1.22.8 Rui ro bat kha khang 21 1.3 Quan ly rui ro cac dvr an dau th xXy dung khU thi 21 1.3.1 Nhan dien, phan tick, dank gia rui ro 21 1.3.2 Cac phaong phap quan ly rui ro 26 CHUONG 2: THUC TRANG RUI RO CAC du AN DAU TU XAY Dung 21 KHU DO THI TAI TONG CONG TY DAU TU VA PHAT TRIEN NHA - /C v z v HA NOI 28 2.2 TigU UmU dUu hu xyy dngg hUu dd hUi moi hai TOgg Cdgg hy 28 2.2 TUnc hoagg oui oo cua cCc dn Cg xyy dngg hUu dd hUi hai TOgg Cogg hy DUu hu va PUCh toie’g gUa Ha Noi 31 2.2.2 Cac loqi rui ro chu yeu cua du an dau ta xay dung khu thi 31 2.2.2 Bank gia tac dong cua cac rui ro den du an xay dung khu thi36 2.2.3 Banh gia rui ro du an dau ta xay dung khu thi bang phaong phap phan tich rui ro 39 2.2.4 Thhc tiring cong tt'ie quan ly rui ro tai Tong Cong ty 44 2.3 Nguuen nliUy rui rot hoog hUot ddog dau t h xXy dung khU dd t hU moi hai TOgg Cdgg hy dUu hu va pUCt hoieg gUa Ha Noi 45 2.3.1 Nguyen nhan anh hating toi cac rui ro mang tinh he thong 45 2.3.1.1 Moi trudng phap ly thay doi 45 2.3.12 Thi trubrng tai rhinn tien teMicmn on dm/i 47 2.3.1.3 Quan he cau thi trudng mat can doi 48 22.1.4 Gia ca nguyen lieu dau vao bien dong 50 2.2.1.5 He thong co so tang khong dong bo 50 2.3.2 Nguyen nhan anh hating toi cac rui ro phi he thong 51 2.32.1 Co so phap ly cua du an khong hoan chinh .51 2.3.22 Nguon hue thuc Men du an dkong rdy hii 53 2.32.3 Su phoi hop khong dong bo vdi cac ben lien quan 54 2.3.3.4 Nang luc quan ly du an cdn yeu kem 56 2.32.5 Cac bien co bat ngd thi cong xay lap 57 A AZ Z A< aS _ , CHU0NG : MOT SO GIAI PHAP NHAM HAN CHE RUI RO DAU TV CAC DV AN XAY DUNG KHU DO THI TAI TONG CONG TY DAU TU VA PHAT TRIEN NHA HA NOI 59 3.1 Dinh hu'ong phat trien cua Tong Cong ty den 2010 59 3.1.1 Muc tieu phat trien Tong Cong ty den 2010 59 3.1.2 Cac chi tieu ke hoach nam 2004,2005 va ke hoach nam 62 3.2 Mot so giai phap han che rui ro dau tu xay dung khu thi (53 3.2.1 Cac nguyen tac han che rui ro 63 3.2.2 Giai phap th phia Tong Cong ty Dau tu va Phat trien nha Ha Noi nham han che rui ro cac du an dau tu xay dung khu thi 65 3.2.2.1 Lap hehoach hoat dong san xuat king doanh 65 3.232 Thiet hap ho thong hd trit nguyen hvp lieu 67 3.2.23 Thue hinui dguyen tac dahotcighod tronghoat dong dau th 71 3.22.4 Hodin thhin chng thhc nggHin chu, ddbdo thu iruUng 74 3.22.5 Xay degg ou hoogu on too' viuc ouy Ongg vog c0c de0g 78 3.22.6 Nygg cnn codh luogg cngg hOc Ipp hodm Oigo de0g Oau hU 79 3.22.7 Nygg cnn codh luogg lnn Ongg hciTogg Cngg hy 82 3.2.3 Giai phap thphia Nha nuoc nham han che rui ro doi vOi hoat dong dau tu xay dung khu thi 83 3.23.1 Honm t^huiu Ih^e hong phap huyt ve dau hUxUy doeg nganh vahhu t On hoi 83 323.2 Sii dung cac chng chquUm Ihungo mtuc dO’dieu iet thu trOUng hdt t Ongg sng onah Ongg bop ly 85 3.2.33 Ccii hack ho thong hanh hkmg hang 86 3.234 Lap quy onaho uay degg ou hodgg co so oc hagg Oogg dn von quy UnacU su dngg Odh 88 3.23.5 Tongo lap poOh ouy vni hod cun c0c Hep oni ggngo ggon 89 KET LUAN 91 DANH SACH BANG BIEU VA HINH VE So 1.1 : Quy trinh dau tu xay dung khu thi mdi So 1.2: Mdi quan he gi€ra tan suat va mile nghiem cua rui ro Bang 2.1: Cac dir an dau tu xay dung khu thi Bang 2.2: Dien tich m2 san xay dung cong trinh tai cac khu thi Bang 2.3: Von dau tu xay dung khu thi (giai doan 2001 - 2005) Bang 2.4: Mo ta rui ro du an dau tu xay dung khu thi Bang 2.5: Danh gia rui ro dau tu xay dung khu thi Bang 2.6: Bien dong NPV chi phi xay lap thay doi Bang 2.7: Bien dong cua NPV gia ban nha thay doi Bang 2.8: Mdi quan he giua NPV va chi phi von dau tu Bang 2.9 : Mdi quan he giua NPV va thcri gian hoan du an Do thi 2.1: Mdi quan he giua NPV va chi phi xay lap Do thi 2.2: Mdi quan he giua NPV va gia ban nha Do thi 2.3 : Mdi quan he giua NPV va thdi gian hoan du an Bang 3.1: Cac chi tieu ke hoach nam 2004 - 2005 Bang 3.2: Cac chi tieu ke hoach nam lan thtr (2006 - 2010) Bang 3.3: Chi phi du tru cua cac cong trinh tai cac du an tieu bieu Bang 3.4: Phan tich ma tran SWOT Do thi 3.1: Mdi quan he giua thdi gian du tru va luqng cung hang Do thi 3.2: Mdi quan he giua danh muc dau tu va rui ro JJ TRUONG DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN _ ** * _ TRAN THI THUC EE MOT SO GIAI PHAP HAN CHE RUI RO DAU TU CAC DUAN XAY DUNG KHU DO THI TAI • • • • TONG CONG TY DAU TU VA PHAT TRIEN NHA HA NOI CHUYEN NGANH: KINH TE DAU TU LU AN VAN THAC SY KINH TE • TOM TAT LU AN VAN THAC SY KINH TE Ha Noi, Nam 2006 i M() DAU Tong Cong ty Dau tu va Phat trien nha Ha Noi la mot doanh nghiep hoat dong lau nam linh vuc dau tu xay dung nha d tai Ha Noi Trong nhung nam vtra qua, Tong Cong ty da thuc hien dau tu nhieu du an xay dung cac khu thi tren dia ban Ha Noi Sau mot thcti gian nghien cdu tim hieu, vdi nhung kien thuc da tich luy duqc hoc tap va kinh nghiem cong tac da trai qua, toi quyet dinh lua chon de tai Mot sd giai phap han che rui ro dau tu cac du an xay dung khu thi tai Tong Cong ty Dau tu va Phat trien nha Ha Noi de lam luan van tot nghiep Thac sy chuyen nganh Kinh te Dau tu vdi cac noi dung chinh sau : Doi tuung nghien ciar cac du an dau tu xay dung khu thi Pham vi nghien cun: de tai tap trung vao nghien curu cac du an Tong Cong ty Ddu tu va Phat trien nha Ha Noi lam chu dau tu Muc dich nghien cun : Trinh bay mot so ly thuyet, co sd ly luan vd danh gia, phan tich va quan ly rui ro Danh gia tinh hinh dau tu cac du an khu thi; thuc trang hoat dong phan tich, danh gia va quan ly rui ro cua cac du an xay dung khu thi tai Tong Cong ty Dau tu va Phat trien nha Ha Noi Dua mot sd giai phap nham han che rui ro dau tu cac du an xay dung khu thi cua Tong Cong ty Dau tu va Phat trien nha Ha Noi Ket cau luan van : gom chuong Chuong 1: Ly luan ve rui ro va rui ro vdi cac du an dau tu xay dung khu thi Chuong 2: Thuc trang rui ro dau tu cac du an xay dung khu thi tai Tong Cong ty Dau tu va Phat trien nha Ha Noi Chuong 3: Mot sd giai phap nham han che rui ro dau tu cac du an xay dung khu thi tai Tong Cong ty Dau tu va Phat trien nha Ha Noi CHU0NG1 LY LU AN VE RUI RO VA RUI RO V0I CAC DUAN DAU TUXAY DUNG KHU DO THI 1.1 Rui ro dau tu va cac van de lien quan 1.1.1 Khai niem ve rui ro Rui ro du an la tong hop cac yeu to ngSu nhien (bat trSc) co the ludng bang xac suat khong dat duoc muc tieu da dinh cua du an, bat trSc gay nen mat mat thiet hai Dau tu la su hy sinh cac nguon luc d hien tai de tien hanh cac hoat dong nao nhSm thu ve cac ket qua nhat dinh tuong lai Ion hon cac nguon luc da bo de dat duoc ket qua Cung giong nhu cac hoat dong khac cuoc song, hoat dong dau tu chiia dung nhidu rui ro 1.1.2 Cac loai rui ro dau tu 1.1.2.1 Theo pham vi anh hudng cua rui ro a Rui ro he thong: La nhung rui ro xay cac nguyen nhan chung va ben ngoai, khong thuoc quyen kiem soat cua mot ca nhan nao Hau het cac rui ro he thong deu xuat phat ttr su tac dong tuong hd thuoc ve kinh te, chmh tri, xa hoi Rui ro he thong tac dong den moi hoat dong dau tu b Rui ro phi he thong: La rui ro xuat phat tit cac yeu to chu quan va khach quan cua cac chu the dau tu Loai rui ro chi anh hudng den mot hoac mot hoat dong dau tu rieng le 1.1.2.2 Theo tinh chat cua rui ro a Rui ro suy doan (con duoc goi la rui ro suy tinh hay rui ro dau co): La rui ro xay trudng hop nha dau tu chu dong lua chon phuong an cho du biet rang co the co lqi hoac co hai b Riii ro thudn : La nhung riii ro chi co the dan den nhung thiet hai mat mat ma khong co co hoi kiem ldi Riii ro xuat phat tir nhung nguyen nhan nhu hien tuong tu nhien bat lqi hoac nhung so y, bat can cua ngudi hoac la nhung hanh dong xau cua ngudi khac gay 1.1.2.3 Riii ro tit cac tac dong cua moi trudng vi mo trudng dau tu co su bien dong ma nha dau tu khong ludng trudc duoc: suy thoai kinh te, lam phat, lai suat thay doi, b Riii ro thi trudng: La cac riii ro lien quan den cac nhan to thi trudng thay doi nhu: luqng cung, luqng cau, gia ca hang hoa, thi phan Nhung rui ro lien quan den nhung bien dong cua thi trudng anh hudng den vi the va kha nang canh tranh cua san pham tren thi trudng iii c Rui ro chinh tri: La su thay doi bat thubng cua cac the che chinh tri, cam giu, chiem doat, quoc huu hoa, phan biet doi xu doi vdi cac doanh nhan cua chinh quyen dia phuong, Chinh phu Hoac la nhung tac dong cua chien tranh, bao luc cua cac the luc chinh tri d Rui ro phap ly : La nhung rui ro co nguon goc tir viec su thay doi phap luat lien quan den hoat dong dau tu, kinh doanh, su map mb, chong cheo, khong thong nhat cua cac van ban phap quy, su thieu thong tin viec bien luat 1.13.1 Rui ro a pha lap dtfan Pha lap du an la mot budc quan lam tien de cho cac hoat dong thuc hien du an sau nay, viec hoan tot cac cong tac giai doan se anh hubng rat lhn den chat luqng va tien thuc hien cac giai doan sau Trong pha lap du an cd the xay cac rui ro bao gom rui ro noi sinh va rui ro ngoai sinh 1.13.2 Rui ro apha trien khai dtfan Pha trien khai du an la viec cu the hoa cac hoat dong da lap nen du an an dau tu (bao cao nghien cun kha thi) bang hanh dong Cac rui ro giai doan la su khac biet giua gia thuyet ma giai doan lap du an de vdi phat hien muon va'n de, nhan thuc sai van de va de xuat phuong an xu ly khong phu hop 1.133 Rui ro dpha ket thuc dtfan Trong giai doan ket thuc du an, san pham cua du an da hoan va bat dau dua vao su dung Cac rui ro o giai doan thubng lien quan den kha nang tieu thu san pham, van de quyet toan va hoat dong bao tri, bao hanh san pham 1.1.4 Nguyen nhan xay rui ro 1.1.4.1 Nguyen nhan anh htfdng va nhan tokhach quan a Mdi trubng tu nhien Hoat dong dau tu khong the tach rbi khoi mdi trudng tu nhien boi moi trubng tu nhien vita la tien de cho su phat trien kinh te nhung doi moi trubng tu nhien la nhan to tac dong lam gia tang nguy co rui ro hoat dong dau tu thong qua nhung hien tuqng tu nhien bat lqi nhu bao lut, dong dat, nui lua TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Tieng Viet: Nguyen Tuan Anh (2005), Riii ro kinh doanh xuat nhap khau, Nha xuat ban Lao dong, Ha Noi Trinh Thuy Anh (2005), Mot so van de ve rui ro du an va quan ly rui ro du an, Tap chi Khoa hoc Giao thong van tdi, so 12, Nha xuat ban Giao thong Van tai, Ha Noi Luu Thi Huong (2002), Giao trinh Tdi chinh Doanh nghiep, Nha xuat ban giao due, Ha Noi Nguyen Lien Huong (2004), Nghien citu van de rui ro va cac bien phap quan tri rui ro hoat dong san xuat kinh doanh cua cac doanh nghiep xay dung, Luan an Tien si, Trudng Dai hoc Xay dung, Ha Noi NguySn Bach Nguyet (2004), Giao trinh Lap du an dau tu, Nha xuat ban khoa hoc ky thuat, Ha Noi Nguyen Bach Nguyet, Tir Quang Phuong (2004), Giao trinh Kinh te dau tu, Nha xuat ban Thong ke, Ha Noi Tir Quang Phuong (2002), Giao trinh Quan ly du an dau tu, Nha xuat ban Lao dong, Ha Noi So Tai chinh Ha Noi (1997), Dan gid xay dung ca ban Thanh Ha Noi, Tong Cue Thong ke, Ha Noi Sd Tai chinh Ha Noi (2003, 2006), Thong bao gid thdng 8/2003 va Thdng bao gid 7/2006, Ha Noi 10 Tong Cue thong ke (2006), Nien giam thdng ke nam 2005, Nha xuat ban Thdng ke, Ha Ndi 11 Tong Cong ty Dau tu va Phat trien nha Ha Noi (2005), Bao cao tong ket nam (2000-2005) va dinh hitting 10 nam (2000 -2010), Ha Noi Tieng Anh: 12 Frank Knight (1921), Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, USA 13 Marilu Hurt McCarty (1986), Managerial Ecomomics with Applications, Scott, Foresman Company, Lon don, England 14 Irving Pfeffer (1956), Insurance and Economic Theory, Homeword, III: Richard Di Irwin, Inc, USA 15 Savvakis C Savvides (1994), Risk Analysis and Investment Appraisal, Beech Trea Puslishing, New York 16 Ronald Bosman & Frans van Winden (2005), Global Risk, Investment and Emotions, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherland PHU LUC e • BANG : ( HI PHI XAY LAP HA TANG KY THUAT BANG 2: CHI PHI XAY LAP CAC CONG TRINH KIEN TRUC TT Hang muc Nha cao tang CT1 Nha cao tang CT2 Nha cao tang CT4 Cong trinh hdn hop Tang ham + Nha CT2 + Cdng trinh hdn hop Cay xanh TT, cay xanh ky thuat Nha biet thu Nha vuorn Tong cong Khoi lucmg (m2) 12098 38840 19218 28954 5912 3690 2222 9675 5375 10935 Don gia 1,900,000 2,050,000 1,900,000 2,050,000 GT trudc thue 22,986,200,000 79,622,000,000 36,514,200,000 59,355,700,000 Thue GTGT 2,298,620,000 7,962,200,000 3,651,420,000 5,935,570,000 Dem vi: ddng Gia tri sau thue 25,284,820,000 87,584,200,000 40,165,620,000 65,291,270,000 1,750,000 1,750,000 200,000 1,350,000 1,250,000 6,457,500,000 3,888,500,000 1,935,000,000 7,256,250,000 13,668,750,000 231,684,100,000 645,750,000 388,850,000 193,500,000 725,625,000 1,366,875,000 23,168,410,000 7,103,250,000 4,277,350,000 2,128,500,000 7,981,875,000 15,035,625,000 254,852,510,000 BANG : CHI PHI THI^T BI HA TANG KY THUAT STT Hang muc So luong (cai) Bien ap ABB 630KVA-22/0.4KV Bien ap ABB 750KVA-22/0.4KV Bien ap ABB 800KVA-22/0.4KV Tu the tong 0.4KV-1600A Tu the tong 0.4KV-1200A Tu the tong 0.4KV-1000A Bcm nudc thai tha chim 68m3/h,4KW Thiet bi HT mang XL nudc sach 150m3/h Thung chua rac Cong 150 Don vi: ddng Den gia Thue GTGT GT trudc thue GT sau thue 200,000,000 600,000,000 60,000,000 660,000,000 236,363,636 945,454,544 94,545,454 1,039,999,998 23,636,364 236,363,636 236,363,636 260,000,000 50,000,000 250,000,000 500,000,000 550,000,000 236,363,636 23,636,364 236,363,636 260,000,000 227,272,727 68,181,818 681,818,181 749,999,999 72,727,273 145,454,546 14,545,455 160,000,001 3,047,727,273 3,047,727,273 304,772,727 3,352,500,000 363,636 54,545,400 5,454,540 59,999,940 6,447,727,216 644,772,722 7,092,499,938 BANG : CHI PHI THIET BI XAY DUNG CAC CONG TRINH KIEN TRUC srr Hang muc CT1 CT2 CT4 Hdn hop Tong cong So lucng (m2) Don gia 12098 42620 19218 31086 200,000 300,000 180,000 300,000 Don vi: ddng GT trudc thue Thue GTGT GT sau thue 2,419,600,000 241,960,000 2,661,560,000 12,786,000,000 1,278,600,000 14,064,600,000 3,459,240,000 345,924,000 3,805,164,000 9,325,800,000 932,580,000 10,258,380,000 27,990,640,000 2,799,064,000 30,789,704,000 BANG : TONG MlTC DAU TU Dem vi: dong BANG : TIEN DO SU DUNG VON DAU TU BANG : NGUON VON DAU TU Chi phi von dau tu trung binh: Rtb= 12.30% vdi gia thiet chi phf co hoi cua von tu co la chi phf tra lai vay ngan hang la 20% nam 9% nam BANG : TRA NO VON VAY TT Noi dung Du no dau ky Vay ky Lai vay ky Tra lai vay ky Tra vo'n vay ky Du no cuO'i ky Nam 25,040,949,771 2,253,685,479 27,294,635,250 Nam 27,294,635,250 2,456,517,173 2,456,517,173 5,232,045,199 22,062,590,051 Nam 22,062,590,051 1,985,633,105 1,985,633,105 22,062,590,051 - Don vi: ddng Nam - BANG : DOANH THU DUAN Don vi: ddng BANG 10 : PHAN TICH TAI CHINH TT Noi dung Nam Nam Nam Doanh thu 151,287,100,000 169,751,400,000 Thue VAT phai nop 15,128,710,000 16,975,140,000 VAT dupe khau trit 12,162,445,646 2,474,308,362 13,968,763,162 Chi phi quan ly doanh nghiep ( 1,512,871,000 1,697,514,000 Doanh thu thuan 146,807,964,646 2,474,308,362 165,047,509,162 Chi phi dau tu 35,772,785,387 137,811,390,975 139,687,631,616 Thu nhap trudc thue va lai 8,996,573,671 (33,298,477,025) 25,359,877,546 Tra lai vay 2,456,517,173 1,985,633,105 Thu nhap trudc thue (33,298,477,025) 6,540,056,499 23,374,244,441 10 11 Cong don thu nhap chiu thue Thue thu nhap phai nop Dong tien sau thue Gia tri hien tai cua dong tien Cong ddn dong tien NPV = IRR= Thdi han thu hoi von (33,298,477,025) (33,298,477,025) (33,298,477,025) (33,298,477,025) (26,758,420,526) 6,540,056,499 5,823,736,864 (27,474,740,161) 13,175,780,154 dong 27.29% 4.27 nam (3,384,176,085) 23,374,244,441 18,534,380,259 (8,940,359,902) Dan vi: dong Nam Nam 100,982,600,000 45,725,000,000 10,098,260,000 4,572,500,000 9,336,737,877 457,250,000 1,009,826,000 99,211,251,877 40,695,250,000 93,367,378,772 5,843,873,105 40,695,250,000 5,843,873,105 40,695,250,000 43,154,947,020 12,083,385,166 28,611,864,834 5,843,873,105 4,126,306,730 17,989,833,326 (4,814,053,172) 13,175,780,154 2,459,697,020 BANG 11: PHAN TICH DO NHAY KHI CHI PHI VON DAU TUTHAY DOI Cho cac nhan to ve chi phf co hdi vo'n dau tir va lai vay ngan hang thay doi thi NPV cua dir an se bien dong nhir the nao + Ddng la nhan to chi phf co hoi cua vo'n chu so hiru bien doi + Cot la nhan to chi phf tra lai vay ngan hang bien doi BANG12 : PHAN TICH RUI RO: BIEN DONG CUA NPV KHI CHI PHI XAY LAP THAY DOI Scenario Summary Current Values: Tinh huong Created by HOME on 5/30/2006 Tinh liuong Tinh huong Created by HOME on 5/30/2006 Created by HOME on 5/30/2006 Tinh huong Created by HOME on 5/30/2006 Changing Cells $D$23 1,900,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 ■■ ■ - - - $D$24 2,050,000 2,250,000 2,150,000 1,950,000 1,850,000 $D$25 1,900,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 $D$26 2,050,000 2,250,000 2,150,000 1,950,000 1,850,000 13,175,780,154 (777,833,590) 6,189,552,703 20,161,623,595 27,147,042,226 Result Cells: $U$46 Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at time Scenario Summary Report was created Changing cells for each scenario are highlighted in gray BANG 13: PHAN TICH RUI RO: BIEN DONG CUA IRR KHI CHI PHI XAY LAP THAY DOI Scenario Summary Current Values: Tinh huong Tinh huong Tinh huong Tinh huong Created by HOME on 5/30/2006 Created by HOME on 5/30/2006 Created by HOME on 5/30/2006 Created by HOME on 5/30/2006 Changing Cells: $D$23 1,900,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 $D$24 2,050,000 2,250,000 2,150,000 1,950,000 1,850,000 $D$25 1,900,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 $D$26 2,050,000 2,250,000 2,150,000 1,950,000 1,850,000 Result Cells: $U$47 27.29% 11.52% 18.92% Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at time Scenario Summary Report was created Changing cells for each scenario are highlighted in gray 36.56% 46.65% BANG 14: PHAN TICH RUI RO: BIEN DONG CUA NPV KHI GIA BAN THAY DOI Scenario Summary Current Values: Tinh huong a Created by HOME on 5/30/2006 Tinh huong b Created by HOME on 5/30/2006 Tinh huong c Created by HOME on 5/30/2006 Tinh huong d Created by HOME on 5/30/2006 Changing Cells: $V$7 5,500,000 6,100,000 5,800,000 5,200,000 4,900,000 $V$10 5,900,000 6,500,000 6,200,000 5,600,000 5,300,000 $V$13 5,900,000 6,500,000 6,200,000 5,600,000 5,300,000 $V$16 10,200,000 10,800,000 10,500,000 9,900,000 9,600,000 $V$19 9,200,000 10,000,000 9,600,000 8,900,000 8,600,000 13,175,780,154 37,811,056,183 25,493,418,169 1,529,778,250 Result Cells: $U$46 Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at time Scenario Summary Report was created Changing cells for each scenario are highlighted in gray (9,911,234,710) BANG 15: PHAN TICH RUI RO : BIEN DONG CUA IRR KHI GIA BAN THAY DOI Scenario Summary Current Values: Tinh huong a Tinh huong c Tinh huong b Tinh huong d Created by HOME on 5/30/2006 Created by HOME on 5/30/2006 Created by HOME on 5/30/2006 Created by HOME on 5/30/2006 Changing Cells: $V$7 5,500,000 6,100,000 5,800,000 5,200,000 4,900,000 $V$IO 5,900,000 6,500,000 6,200,000 5,600,000 5,300,000 $V$13 5,900,000 6,500,000 6,200,000 5,600,000 5,300,000 $V$16 10,200,000 10,800,000 10,500,000 9,900,000 9,600,000 $V$19 9,200,000 10,000,000 9,600,000 8,900,000 8,600,000 Result Cells: $U$47 27.29% 60.64% 43.29% Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at time Scenario Summary Report was created Changing cells for each scenario are highlighted in gray 13.92% 2.68%