60 TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ QUỐC DÂN BÁO CÁO KẾT QUẢ NGHIÊN CỨU ĐỀ TÀI THAM GIA XÉT GIẢI THƯỞNG “SINH VIÊN NGHIÊN CỨU KHOA HỌC” NĂM 2017 NGHIÊN CỨU SỬ DỤNG THÔNG TIN KẾ TOÁN TRONG DỰ BÁO DÒNG TIỀN TỪ HO[.]
TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ QUỐC DÂN BÁO CÁO KẾT QUẢ NGHIÊN CỨU ĐỀ TÀI THAM GIA XÉT GIẢI THƯỞNG “SINH VIÊN NGHIÊN CỨU KHOA HỌC” NĂM 2017 NGHIÊN CỨU SỬ DỤNG THƠNG TIN KẾ TỐN TRONG DỰ BÁO DỊNG TIỀN TỪ HOẠT ĐỘNG KINH DOANH CỦA CÁC CÔNG TY PHI TÀI CHÍNH NIÊM YẾT TRÊN SỞ GIAO DỊCH CHỨNG KHOÁN HÀ NỘI A STUDY ON USING ACCOUNTING INFORMATION TO FORECAST CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES OF NON - FINANCIAL LISTED COMPANIES ON HANOI STOCK EXCHANGE Thuộc nhóm ngành khoa học công nghệ: Khoa học Xã hội Hà Nội, 2017 TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ QUỐC DÂN BÁO CÁO KẾT QUẢ NGHIÊN CỨU ĐỀ TÀI THAM GIA XÉT GIẢI THƯỞNG "SINH VIÊN NGHIÊN CỨU KHOA HỌC" NĂM 2017 NGHIÊN CỨU SỬ DỤNG THƠNG TIN KẾ TỐN TRONG DỰ BÁO DỊNG TIỀN TỪ HOẠT ĐỘNG KINH DOANH CỦA CÁC CƠNG TY PHI TÀI CHÍNH NIÊM YẾT TRÊN SỞ GIAO DỊCH CHỨNG KHOÁN HÀ NỘI A STUDY ON USING ACCOUNTING INFORMATION TO FORECAST CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES OF NON - FINANCIAL LISTED COMPANIES ON HANOI STOCK EXCHANGE Thuộc lĩnh vực khoa học công nghệ: Khoa học Xã hội Sinh viên thực hiện: Nguyễn Hà Thanh Nam, Nữ: Nữ Nguyễn Thùy Linh Nguyễn Tống Khánh Linh Dân tộc: Kinh Lớp, khoa: Kiểm toán Chất lượng cao 56 Năm thứ: 3/Số năm đào tạo: Ngành học: Kiểm toán Người hướng dẫn chính: TS Nguyễn Thanh Hiếu Contents List of Figures and Tables List of acronyms CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION TO RESEARCH 1.1 The urgency of this research topic 1.2 Overview of work 1.2.1 Foreign .5 1.2.2 Domestic 10 1.3 Research objectives .13 1.4 Research question 14 1.5 Objects and scopes of the study .14 1.5.1 Research Subjects 14 1.5.2 Research scope .14 1.6 Research Methods 15 1.7 The structure of the subject 16 CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL BASIS OF CASH FLOW AND CASH FLOW PROJECTIONS IN COMPANIES LISTED ON THE STOCK MARKET 17 2.1 Theoretical basis of cash flow in companies listed on the stock market .17 2.1.1 Features of accounting information in accordance with the accrual basis and cash basis accounting .17 2.1.2 The relationship between cash flow and financial position of the companies listed on the stock market 19 2.1.3 Methods of measuring value cash flow from operating activities in the companies listed on the stock market 21 2.2 Theoretical basis of cash flow projections in companies listed on the stock market 24 2.2.1 General information on the forecast .24 2.2.2 The role of the forecast cash flow 26 2.2.3 Factors affecting the forecast cash flow 28 CHAPTER 3: CONSTRUCTION OF ASSUMPTION OF SCIENCE AND FORECASTING METHOD CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES OF NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES LISTED IN HANOI STOCK EXCHANGE 32 3.1 Building scientific hypothesis .32 3.2 Data and research methods 34 3.2.1 Data for research 34 3.2.2 Method research .36 CHAPTER 4: RESULTS ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTAL MODELS FORECAST CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES OF NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES LISTED IN HANOI STOCK EXCHANGE 40 4.1 Overview of Hanoi Stock Exchange and non-financial companies listed on the Hanoi Stock Exchange 40 4.2 Statistics describe the variables of the model .42 4.3.Results of model analysis .43 4.3.1.The results of the model of cash flow forecast from business activities on the basis of profits 43 4.3.2.The results of the model analysis of cash flow forecasts from business activities based on past cash flows 45 4.3.3 The results of the analysis of cash flow projection model from business activities on the basis of the past cash flow combined with of combined accrual accounting information components 45 4.3.4.The results of the analysis of cash flow projection model from business activities based on the past cash flow combined with specific accrual accounting information components 47 CHAPTER 5: DISCUSSION OF EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS MODEL, THE PROPOSED SOLUTION AND CONCLUSIONS 49 5.1 Discuss the results of analyzing the results of the model 49 5.2 Some proposed solutions .50 5.3 The contribution of research topics .51 5.4 Limitations of research projects 51 CONCLUSION 52 Appendix: Listed industry companies in the HNX References List of Figures and Tables Figure 2.1: The methodology of causal forecast .26 Figure 2.2: Factors affect the forecast of cash flow 28 Table 4.1a: Correlation between cash flow and profit and the total value of combined accrual components 43 Table 4.1b: Correlation between cash flow and profit information and each specific accrual information components .44 Table 4.2: Results of regression to model the cash flow 44 Table 4.3: Results of regression for-profit model .45 Table 4.4: Results of FEM regression for combined accrual information components model 46 Table 4.5: The regression results for specific accrual component model 47 List of acronyms HN HOSE HNX SE Hanoi Hochiminh Stock Exchange Hanoi Stock Exchange Stock Exchange INTRODUCTION Not surprisingly that cash flows play an extremely important role to every company, therefore, forecasting cash flows will be deeply helpful to investors, managers in evaluating the effectiveness of running business and making economical decisions Any study research on which factors have best ability to forecast cash flows is intensely meaningful theoretically and practically In theory, forecasting cash flows has been mentioned in many National Accounting Standards for a long time However, Accounting Standards only bring out ideas which factors should be used in forecasting cash flow without detail evidences, besides, researches are not of the same mind about each factor’s ability in forecasting cash flows For instance, while research of Greenbeg & partners (1986), Dechow & partners (1998) and Ebaid (2011) indicated that accounting profit can forecast cashflows better; research of Barth & partners (2001), Chotkunakitti (2005) said that the cashflows can better Additional, report of Mc Beth (1993) can’t come to conclusion whether cashflows factors or profit can bring to a better forecast In practice, 80% credit officers believe that there must be Future cash flows plans in Loans Agreement (Fulmer, Gavin and Bertin, 1991; Waddell D & partners, 1994) Forecasting cash flows has not been implemented strictly inn Vietnam, and as a consequence, this has not evaluated truly the factors which can affect a business cash flow It is clear that forecast result is almost based on chief accountant’s experience and the method is quite simple and not considered seriously (Hong Nhung, Do Thi, 2014) So, there is a need of more research on forecasting cash flows to provide more evidences for the consider of Accounting Standards and science researches on forecasting cash flows CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION TO RESEARCH 1.1 The urgency of this research topic Cash flow for the business is as importance as the bloodstream in the human body Therefore, forecasting cash flow especially cash flow from operating activities will help assess multiple objects of the business activities and economic decisions because this is the cash flows related to the revenue generating activities of business primarily and is a sign that the ability to generate cash to meet daily operations of each company (Boyd & Cortese - Daniel, 2000/2001) The research identified the accounting information which is capable of forecasting cash flow from the best business operations is significant on both theoretical perspectives and practical In terms of theory, Forecast cash flow problem has been specifically mentioned in many national Accounting Standards and in many studies (Do Thi Hong Nhung, 2014; Nguyen Huu Anh, 2010; Al -Attar, 2003; Barth et al, 2001; Chotkunakitti, 2005; Ebaid, 2011; Farshadfar et al, 2008; Mooi, TL, 2007) However in the Accounting Standards only make judgments about these factors should be used in forecasting cash flows without concrete evidence while the study is not unified the capabilities of the factors in forecast cash flow: No 24 Vietnam Accounting Standards that: information about cash flows from operating activities when used in combination with other information will help users predict cash flows from operating activities in the future while Barth & partner (2001) reported in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (United States): accounting information under the accrual is more efficient than accounting information on the cash basis in evaluating the cash flow in the future of business industry Therefore, there should be more cash flow forecasting research to provide additional evidence for the review of Accounting Standards and review cash flow forecasting research Review on a practical angle, with investors, banks, corporate finance executives, future cash flow forecasts play an importance role that is information indispensable before making a decision of Economics, 80% of the employees in the United States said that in profile loans must have plan on future cash flow (do Thi Hong Nhung, 2014; Fulmer, Gavin and Bertin, 1991; Waddell, d and Associates, 1994) In Vietnam nowadays, stock market went into the operation, in 2000 only have Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchanges and in 2005 Hanoi Stock Exchange is established (under Decision No 127/2005 /the Decision of the prime minister about opening Hanoi Securities Trading Centre on 03/08/2005 and the Decision No 01/2009 / Decision of the prime minister dated 24/06/2009 about conversion, reorganization Hanoi Securities Trading Centre into Hanoi Stock Exchange Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange and Hanoi are working with one member limited liability Company by government models (represented by the Ministry of Finance) as the owner According to statistics on the Hanoi Stock Exchange, (Thanh Mai, 2015, "enterprise listed on the HNX has mobilized nearly 53.5 trillion in capital", cafef.vn) stock market listing, total listed value in 06.24.2015 was more than 96.66 trillion, an increase of approximately 2.6 times compared to 2009, the market capitalization increased from 123,5 trillion to 143,8 trillion compared to 2009 After years of conversion work from the Securities Trading Center to Securities Exchanges model, the number of companies registered for trading on the Hanoi Stock Exchange (SE HN) also increased over time From the early days listed (2005) there were enterprises, 257 enterprises in 2009, and in 2015 there were 361 businesses In particular, the value of companies listed on Ha Noi Stock Exchange accounted for nearly 1/4 listed value of the whole market, but trading volume stood always at around 50% of total trading volume in the market Companies listed on HNX has mobilized nearly 53, trillion in capital for production and business through the issuance of shares on the stock market However, through a preliminary survey showed that: companies listed on HN Stock Exchange didn't often forecast cash flows, not identified any accounting information useful in forecasting cash flow, forecast results mostly relied on the experience of the chief accountant, cash flow forecasting methods still simple, and haven’t focused yet Therefore, the subject: "Research using accounting information in forecasting cash flow from operating activities of non-financial companies listed on the Hanoi Stock Exchange" will actually mean in terms of both theory and practice This problem is made mainly in the developed countries several decades ago, but in Vietnam have not been studied systematically through a few recent studies forecast cash flows have been implemented but the world limited extent non-financial companies listed on the Ha Noi Stock Exchange and the company has not been classified into business sectors that affect cash flow enterprise 1.2 Overview of work 1.2.1 Foreign The study on cash flow forecasting from operating activities of the companies listed on the stock market started in 1986 with the work of Bowen et al (1986, Greenberg et al (1986) in the United States and Habib (2010 ) in Australia, Austin, L and Andrew, B (1989) in New Zealand The study on cash flow forecasting from operating activities varies both the scope of the study, the use of forecasting factors and methods of forecasting In details: The scope of the research: In terms of space research: The study mainly used data on the financial statements of the non-financial companies listed on the stock market and the removal of financial companies by the data on the components accrual (inventory, accounts collection, ) used in the study are not collected on the report of the financial companies (Chong, K W, 2012; Ebaid, 2011; Seng 2006 ) Also, in the non-financial companies, a number of studies conducted divide companies into sectors such as: Pharmaceuticals, Chemicals or Food, Construction, Cement and building materials base, production of consumer goods, Textiles, Transportation, Communication, such as in the study by Barth & partner, 2001; Ebaid, 2011; Farshadfar & partner, 2008; Zhao & partner, 2007 Besides, there are many authors combined sample research firms such as Stammerjohan and Nasiripour, 2001; Seng, 2006; Mooi, TL, 2007 or some authors studied only businesses operating activities form in a particular line of business as Chong, KW, 2012 research industry in Malaysia or Jordan & Wallace (2007) research project cash flow in the oil industry in the United States, Overall, the study forecasted cash flows in a field, a specific sector will serve a target group interested in the industry that cannot cover the whole market and therefore does not meet a demand to provide information of many different objects in the economy In terms of the study period: First cash flow projection research of Greenberg & partner (1986) used the data of 20 years from 1963 to 1982 in the United States Continuing with the work of Greenberg & partner (1986) in the United States, there were series of studies, such as Finger (1994) used data to research in 50 years (from 1935 to 1987) and Dechow & partner (1998) with data research in 30 years from the study in 1963 to 1992 Outside the US, the study forecast cash flow of the study of Al-Altar (2004) in the UK with data in 10 years from 1991 to 2000 or research of Chotkunakitti (2005) in Thailand with the data in years from 1994 to 2002, the study by Chong, KW (2012) in Malaysia for 11 years from 1999 to 2009, Thus, studies using diverse data in different years but mostly before 2010 In the era of economic development with more volatility as today, the research also needed to use the data collecting in recent years to provide relevant information for the new era The use of factors forecast Factors forecast cash flow from operating activities can be divided into groups: The first group used profits in the past Accounting profit under the accrual is capable of forecasting cash flow from operating activities was mentioned by Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) the US Accounting Standards in 1978 (FASB, 1978) At the same time, FASB (1978) also suggested that to predict future cash flows, the investor usually interested in profitable information than cash flow information but FASB did not include an experimental evidence to reinforce that identified Since then, many researchers continue to research in order to find evidence for that point Therefore, regular profit is considered a significant factor in predicting future cash flows in the study of many authors as: McBeth (1993), Ali, A (1994), Finger (1994; Supriyadi (1998); Al-Attar (2004), Mooi, TL (2007), Zhao & partner (2007), Chong, KW (2012) Profit included in predictive models can be just the previous year's profit or latency 2, 3, years (2000/2001 Stammerjohan et al; Chotkunakitti 2005, Chong, KW, 2012) Although the authors confirmed that profit is a factor capable of forecasting future cash flows of the company However, the authors have not agreed on what predict factors, forecast model in these model (revenue model, cash flow model, cash flow incorporate accrual information compositions in profit model, ) capable of better cash flow forecast (Ebaid, 2011; Farshadfar et al, 2008; Stammerjohan & partner, 2000/2001; Seng.D, 2006) The second group, the cash flow from operating activities in the past The ability to predict future cash flows of the past cash flow are admitted by many research scholars In studies forecasting future cash flows using the past as cash flow forecasting factors, cash flow from business activity data used in the study can be: (1) The ...TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ QUỐC DÂN BÁO CÁO KẾT QUẢ NGHIÊN CỨU ĐỀ TÀI THAM GIA XÉT GIẢI THƯỞNG "SINH VIÊN NGHIÊN CỨU KHOA HỌC" NĂM 2017 NGHIÊN CỨU SỬ DỤNG THƠNG TIN KẾ TỐN TRONG... lĩnh vực khoa học công nghệ: Khoa học Xã hội Sinh viên thực hiện: Nguyễn Hà Thanh Nam, Nữ: Nữ Nguyễn Thùy Linh Nguyễn Tống Khánh Linh Dân tộc: Kinh Lớp, khoa: Kiểm toán Chất lượng cao 56 Năm thứ:... Nguyễn Tống Khánh Linh Dân tộc: Kinh Lớp, khoa: Kiểm toán Chất lượng cao 56 Năm thứ: 3/Số năm đào tạo: Ngành học: Kiểm toán Người hướng dẫn chính: TS Nguyễn Thanh Hiếu Contents List of Figures and