1 kinh t v mô bn th nm N. Gregory Mankiw Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com (dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich) macro © 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved CHNG 19 Nhng lý thuyt mi v Chu k Kinh Doanh CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 1 Mc tiêu ca chng Mc tiêu ca chng ! "#$%&'()* $+ ,- '$.'//012 CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 2 Lý thuyt Chu k Kinh doanh Thc t Lý thuyt Chu k Kinh doanh Thc t 1.34)56%74)85 9 1#:;<=6%74)8 5 9 0 =7(>1.?71 $@04A6B163 $%3=4CC2 )50@1?%$ 3D0CB; $%$ CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 3 Kinh t hc Kinh t hc Robinson Crusoe Robinson Crusoe E%$F:1?04GH9 (I (H6C ,)0)0)/4) )J K40L0)/=?@1) 9 F 9 ) M 383N04GHO M 2383NO K40L)%%251 =4C1P60)/13CJ CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 4 Nhng cú sc trong nn kinh t Crusoe Nhng cú sc trong nn kinh t Crusoe Q324)JKRS0TU> EU0H33@0)/) VB1@0)/U!$W 710C?F03 837<(XA$U0H) Y)2)4)JKRS0T41! -Y)141U0H6()<60)/( ;?)3837(IJ Z.6416>B 2W)Y)$%Y) VB141!R)%( ?33)P260)/$ W(?FJ CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 5 Nhng bin ng kinh t là nhng phn Nhng bin ng kinh t là nhng phn ng ti u i vi các cú sc ng ti u i vi các cú sc */)"#$%&'()* $6 $)%$@DC $)%$@0)/J 3D0C%1)1CJ* 3D0C%1)1CJ* 1%DG4 1%DG4 $@04A6B16 $@04A6B16 3$%3=4C 3$%3=4C C23D0CJ C23D0CJ 2 CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 6 Nhng tranh lun v lý thuyt RBC Nhng tranh lun v lý thuyt RBC [:1.C@! EB1=43 B@)\ E%$4D0C2 )50U0H)85\ *:;<=)85\ *34)5)8 5\DF@7 ]H43W?\ CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 7 Th trng lao ng Th trng lao ng ! */)#$,-6?)0^03 =)/)?7=45 @)B5 0)2J *C3 ?%&]2 _ ` N_ O + ): _ )?%&_NB 5O ` )?%&`N OJ CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 8 Th trng lao ng Th trng lao ng */)#$ ,-6 M 3D0C$C2 3?%& M ?)=4]3F ) M %$B104A$ E?==3<=<] M )%54181C2 $3?%& M HB=)>3?%&0)3 @$% B CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 9 Các cú sc nng sut Các cú sc nng sut */)#$,-63D0CU0H 3$%$J 12)=433 D0CU0H!:=430 @04A14)% 4;AJ "#$,- 1#]0C(a))b: )204AJ"B :D%\ CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 10 Nm Tng trng sn lng S d Solow 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20001945 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 % nm S d S d Solow Solow và tng trng sn lng và tng trng sn lng CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 11 Các cú sc công ngh Các cú sc công ngh E?@#$,-<=< ]0 )U> 04A0C(a))b] )H3D0CU0H1 .@3$ %$J E?==3)]0C( a))b)?A=43; %&=43B 0 J 3 CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 12 Tính trung lp ca tin Tính trung lp ca tin E?==3,- )]0 8 41U>51=3 $3?%&:HB=) 04AH=J E?@,- =45] 3)]0! 9 K40L04AA%&.0T41J E0T41 ]1=450 410DA( ;2J CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 13 S linh hot ca tin lng và giá c S linh hot ca tin lng và giá c "#$,- 4W]3 4)))56()<W? ]J E?@,- <=<]1 8@34)$ 2 %.C2B4 ;$%$J c.d;4W]34)5 7H32#$%$1J E?==3]0 8 @34:74;) HB=% B;% <=@J CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 14 Kinh t hc Keynes Mi Kinh t hc Keynes Mi c$3%$]$ )85@04AB 1=43()B%ef B 6()G4 >348J E@?=3'//0 g2C84;);8 @34]3G/1Gh %$1@BF 3J CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 15 Chi phí thc n nh và nh hng Chi phí thc n nh và nh hng ngoi hin ca tng cu ngoi hin ca tng cu VBF34>)5B! a 8413@1()B=%$) 1341N1P(IeOJ Q1U $1U 63()B=%3:AJ !=;3N;(X =; 12)P=; L43)312O ':=; 6348:7 CC23()B=1P(I: :7%:A))%$J CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 16 Suy thoái do tht bi trong hp tác Suy thoái do tht bi trong hp tác *)3?%&0)3604AH=63) WHB=6313iJ E$H43()B=?) 413@.%$0T>53 )(XJ *6%()B=)P?) j)8413@1$% $]3()B=)P?) %30T8413@.JR)<6340T( >1)0)3$=X%h)(J CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 17 Tính không ng b ca Tính không ng b ca tin lng và giá c tin lng và giá c *H434%F>I 1?71J *;%k@0 F l34%$)13 13<15=%:J gi()B=?)$]% .413(@134 C@.0TH=)1%)4?H WJQ%$.1mn)B41 3J 4 CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 18 Nhng lý do chính giá c c!ng nh"c: kt Nhng lý do chính giá c c!ng nh"c: kt qu t# các cuc iu tra các nhà qun lý qu t# các cuc iu tra các nhà qun lý _J*H5)A=3!3()B=% 36A3()B=%38412 `J3()B=)YBU3)2%=; U oJ3()B=;;%3 @04=p16;(XHA6(WX6 m) qJEA=k1!3()B=1)4 <W36:T%r;]sC 2%3J tJEA=kuCW34( vJ=; CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 19 Kt lun: Kt lun: tình hình nghiên c!u tình hình nghiên c!u YG/1Gh?=3 GH08C2B%&% ()!"#$%&'()* $ "#$'//0g2J '=41.%$]1) 1)?=3J E%$A=# @4?=37 $%$J CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 20 Tóm t"t chng Tóm t"t chng _J "#$%&%() $ 4W;)5)4)@ 34 F$()3D0CU 0H $C%G43 D0C `JE71Y@#$,- 0 $3?%&@) ;.@3D0CU0H ;<=@ ;)5@34 CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 21 Tóm t"t chng Tóm t"t chng oJ'$.'//012 H=<1C C84;;8@ 342=;%$16 )k1 =; H5)A=3 ;%k@3 4 . Theory Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 2 Lý thuyt Chu k Kinh doanh Thc t Lý thuyt Chu k Kinh doanh Thc t 1.34)56%74)85 9. © 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved CHNG 19 Nhng lý thuyt mi v Chu k Kinh Doanh CHAPTER 19 CHAPTER 19 Advances in Business Cycle Theory Advances