VIEN DIA LY VIEN KH&CN VIET NAM HOI DIA LY VIET NAM NGHIEN CUU DU BAG ANH HUONG THEO CAC KjCH BAN BIEN DOI KHJ HAU DEN HAN HAN, SA M AC HOA VUNG NAM TRUNG BO DEN NAM 2020 Nguyen Trgng Hieu '''', Nguyen L[.]
VIEN DIA LY - VIEN KH&CN VIET NAM HOI DIA LY VIET NAM NGHIEN CUU DU BAG ANH HUONG THEO CAC KjCH BAN BIEN DOI KHJ HAU DEN HAN HAN, SA M.AC HOA VUNG NAM TRUNG BO DEN NAM 2020 Nguyen Trgng Hieu ', Nguyen Lilp Ddn ', Pham Thj Thanh Huang ' SUMMARY Provinces of South Central Coast (including Quang Nam, Da Nang, Quang Ngai, Bmh Dinh, Phu Yen, Khanh Iloa Ninh Thuan, Binh Thuan) have an area of 40,655.7 km' (equivalent to 12.5 % of total area of whole country) Population of this region is more than 8.6 millions of people; make up 10.6% of toted population There are over 264.981 of sand-bank, white-red-yello\y sank expanse, make up 6% of total area of whole country In some places sand filled up field and construction works More than 51,000 of salty soil is next lo sand-bank, 71,000 of alum soil is expanded by drought, flood-tide In the hills, there are over 65,000 of infertile soil, more than 41,000 of erosion soil, especially 36,847 of bare rocky mountain Wild land and hare hill of whole country has an area of 1,000,110 ha; make up 22.61'Xi of the total natural area The Central Southern of Vietnam affected by the the monsoon of the tropical climate with the high temperature, high radiation, many rainfall In this area has many high mountains protruding to the near sea that coasted plain divided by the cells separated, these characteristics have impact on the climate distribution, formation of sub-regional climate, many areas more rains but that are the arid Amount evaporated in the area from 800-1000mm In Ninh Thuan, evaporation of 1600inm while the average rainfall is only 700mm value As a result, the study predicts the impact of climate change scenarios to drought - desertificalion in the Centred Southern of Vietnam in 2020 to help making the system for disaster management of drought desertification to overcome and mitigation the damage caused by natural calamities of drought, desertification is essential DAT VAN DE cac tinh duyen hai Nam Trung Bd tir Quang Nam- Da Nang den Binh Thuan cd dien tich lu nhien 40.655,7kiii" (tuong duang 12,5% dien tich ca nude) Dan sd vimg den nam 2004 hi tren 8,6 trieu ngudi chiem 10,6% dan sd ca nude Dgc theo ddi bd bien cd tren 264,981 ba cac cdn cat, bai cat trang - dd - vang chiem gan 6% didi tich dat tu nhien ciia ca nude Nhieu noi cat di ddng lam lap rugng vudn va cac cdng trinh dan sinh Ben canh vimg dat cat la tren 51.000ha dat man, 71.000 ba dat phen ludn md rdng ban ban, trieu cudng Tren vimg ddi xuat hien dat bac mau chiem tren 65.000ha, dit xdi mdn tra da chiem trdi 41.000ha va dac biet cd tdi 36.847 cac nui da trgc Dat ddi trgc hoang hda loan viing la 1.000.1 lOba chiem 22,61% tdng dien tich tir nhien Vimg Nam Trung Bd chju anh hudng ciia che hau nhiet ddi gid nnia cd nIn nliid cao, hau ndng am, birc xa cao, mua nhieu Trong viing cd ' Trung ldm Khoa hgc cong nghe Khi Iwong - ihiiy van vd Moi Irirdng Vien Dia ly Hdi nghi Klioa hgc Dia ly Todn qud'c la'n th&S - Ha Ndi 2010 795 VTEN DIA LY VIEN KH&CN VIET NAM HOI DIA LY VTET NAM nhilu da\ nui cao chay nhd sat bien da chia cat dai ddng bang ven bien nhfrng d ngan each bin \di nhau, dac diem na\ da tac ddng den sir phan hda hau, hinh cac \'ung tilu hau, nhieu khu vuc mua Idn nhung nhieu khu vuc lai rat kho ban Lugng bic hai khu vuc tir 800-lOOOinni Tai Ninh Thuan lugng hoc hoi 1600inni dd lugng mua trung binh chi dat gia trj 700inm Nhu vay, viec nghien ciru du bao anh hirdng theo cac kjch ban bien ddi bau den ban ban - sa mac hda \ung Nam Trung Bd din nam 2020 giiip cho viec xay dung be thdng quan ly thien tai ban ban - sa mac hda viing Nam Trung Bd nham khac phuc va giam thieu cac thiet hai thien lai ban ban, sa mac hda la rat can thid I NOI DUNG CHU YEN CUA KICH BAN BIEN DOI KHI HAU NTB TRONG THE KY 21 Kich ban bien ddi bau nam 2007 dirge Vien Khoa bgc Kbi tugng Thiiy van va Mdi trudng xay dung theo phuo'ng phap to hgp MAGIC - SCENGEN tir cac md hinh bau cua nhieu nude khac tren the gidi Kjch ban bien ddi hau dugc xay dung chi tiet cho vimg ban d Vid Nam: Tay Bac Ddng Bac, ddng bang Bac Bd, BIC Trung Bd, Nam Trung Bd, Tay Nguyen va Nam Bd, Ndi dung chu yeu ciia kjch ban bao gdm: Muc tang nbid trung binh (°C), miic thay ddi ty le lugng intra va muc nude bien dang vao cac nam: 2020, 2030,.,., 2100 so vdi thdi ky 1980 - 1999 1.1 Kjch ban nhiet Ngi dung cbii yeu kjch ban nbid la muc tang nhiet trung binh nam cac miia: xuan (III - V) (VI - VIII), thu (IX - XI), ddng (XII - II) NTB, theo kjch ban cao mirc tang nbid trung binh nam so vdi thdi ky 1980 - 1999 vao cac nam 2020, 2050, 2070, 2100 la: 0,4; 1,0; 1,5; 2.4°C, Tuy nhien, mirc tang nhiet lai khac cac miia, dd niiia he cao bon trung binh nam miia xuan, miia thu va miia ddng thi ngugc lai, thap ban hoac xap xi trung binh nam Theo kjch ban vira, mirc tang nhiet trung binh so vdi thdi ky 1980 - 1999 vao cac nam ndi tren lan lugt la 0,4; 0,9; 1,4; 1,9°C cao ban chiit it so vdi mirc tang ciia kjch ban thip: 0,4; 0,9; 1,2; 1,2°C Khac kjch ban cao, kjch ban viia va thip cua nhiet trung binh miia xuan, miia thu va miia ddng cao ban cua nam va mirc tang cua nhiet trung binh miia he thi ngugc lai, thap ban ciia nam, 1.2 Kjch ban luong mua Ngi dung ca ban ciia kjch ban lugng mua la mirc tang hay giam hay ggi la mirc tha\ ddi ty le lugng mua nam vao cac miia: xuan, ba, thu, ddng, NTB, theo kjch ban cao, mirc tang lugng mua nam so vdi thdi ky 1980 -1999 vao cac nam 2020, 2050, 2070 va 2100 lln lugt la 0,8; 1,9; 3,1; 5,0%, Tuy nhidi, mirc thay doi tuong img cac miia rat khac nhau: giam di trang miia ddng, miia xuan va ngirgc lai la tang len miia he va miia thu Theo kjch ban viia, muc tang ciia lugng mua nam so vdi thdi ky 1980 - 1999 vao cac nam ndi tren lln lugt la 0,3; 0,8; 1,1; 1,5%, Cung nhu kjch ban cao, mirc thay dii 796 Hdi nghi Khoa hgc Dia ly Todn qud'c lan th&S - Ha Ndi, 2010 VTEN DIA LY - VIEN KHfcfCN VIET NAM KOI DIA LY VTET NAM ciia lugng mua kjch ban vii'a la giam di miia ddng, nuia xuan va tang len nuia be va nuia thu nhirng vdi ty le thap ho'ii Theo kjch ban thap, mirc tang cua lugng mua nam so vdi thai ky 1980 - 1999 vao cac nam ndi tren lan lugt la 0,3; 0,7; 0,9; 1,0%, Tuo'ng tu kjch ban cao va kjch ban vira, lugng mua miia ddng va miia xuan giam di lugng mua miia be va miia thu tang len vdi ty Ic cdn thap ban kjch ban vira 1.3 Kjch ban nude bien dang Tren cac doan bd bien Viet Nam, tir Bac Bd, Trung Bd den Nam Bd deu cd chung kjch ban nude bien dang Theo kjch ban cao, muc nude bien dang vao cac nam 2020, 2050, 2070 va 2100 la 12; 33; 57; 100 cm kjch ban vira dir kien muc nude bien dang cac nam ndi tren la 12; 30; 46; 75 cm Theo kjch ban thap, muc nude bien dang vao nam 2050 la 28 cm va nam 2100 la 65 cm II LU^A CHON Clli SO HAN HAN PHUC VU XAY DUNG KICH BAN HAN HAN CHO NAM TRUNG BO 11.1 Cac loai han iian Tir nam 1983 mdt sd chuyen gia ciia Td chuc Khi tugng the gidi (WMO) da phan djnh loai ban ban sau day: 1) Hgn tugng Thieu but nude can can lugng mua - lugng bdc bai, nhat la cac trudng hgp lien luc it mua hoac khdng mua O day, lugng mua tieu bieu cho phan thu va lugng bdc hoi tieu bieu cho phan chi ciia can can nude 2) Hgn ndng nghiep Thilu but mua dan tdi mat can bang gifra ham lugng nude thuc te dat va nhu cau nude ciia cay trdng Han ndng nghiep tbirc chat la ban sinh ly dugc xac djnh bdi dieu kien nude khdng thich nghi ciia cay trdng, he canh tac ndng nghiep, 3) Hgn thiiy vdn Ddng chay sdng sudi thap ban trung binh nhieu nam rd rd va muc nude cac tang chua nude dudi dat ba thap 4) Hgn kinh te - xd hdi Nude khdng dii cho nhu cau ciia cac hoat ddng kinh te - xa hdi 11.2 Yeu cau ve chi so ban ban phuc vu xay dung kjch ban han han D I CO mdt chi sd ban ban phuc vu die lire cho viec xay dung kjch ban ban ban, chiing tdi xac djnh mdt sd yeu cau chung ve chi sd ban ban nhu sau: 1) Chju su tac dgng rd ret ciia biln ddi kbi hau va cd lien quan mat thiet vdi cac ylu to chinh kjch ban biln ddi hau la nhiet va lugng mua 2) Phan anh dugc ban chit ban ban la thieu but mua so vdi yeu cau ciia thuc te san xuat ndng nghiep 3) Phan anh dugc dao ddng am ciia lugng mua tai thdi diem bidi tai 4) Phan anh dugc ca mirc thilu hut mua tai thdi gian hidi tai va ca anh hudng kl thira ciia tinh trang thilu hut mua thdi gian trudc Hdi nghi Khoa hgc Dia ly Todn qud'c Id'n th&o - Ha Ndi, 2010 797 VIEN DIA LY - > IEN KH&CN VIET NAM HOI DIA LY VIET NAM 5) Phan anh dugc nuic ban ban llurc te nhat la nhiing nam ban nang 6) Cac so lidi dl tinh chi sd ban cd the thu thap dugc 11.3 Danh giii ciic chi so han da co Dua tren kit qua phan lich kha nang dap irng yeu cau tren cho tiing chi so ban tirgnc ban nong nghiep da cd cho phep phat hidi chi sd dugc coi la co sd cho \ iec xa\ dung chi so ban ban phuc \ u xa\' dung kjch ban 1) Chi so aj Y^R' cang tang len, nghiem trgng ban hoac bing cac tinh khac d phia BIC, nghTa la tuang doi nghiem trgng tir nhfrng nam 2020 va nghiem tii' nhung nam 2050 1V.2 Du kien tac dong ciia biin dii hau din han han, hoang mac hoa vao nam 2020 Vao khoang nam 2020, tinh hinh ban ban va hoang mac hda dien nhu sau trdi cac bd phan lanh tho ciia NTB 1) Cdc tmh phia Bdc NTB So vdi thdi ky 1980 - 1999, dai miia ban dai them - song tiem nang hoang mac boa chi d mu'c tuong doi nghiem trgng tren mdt so huyen ding bing ven bidi hoac trung du nhu Thanh Binh, Niii Thanh (Quang Nam), Md Dire, Dire Phd (Quang Ngai) Phii Cat, Phii My, Tuy Phudc (Binh Djnh), eo4 Hdi nghi Khoa hoc Dia ly Toan qud'c lan th&S-Hd Ndi, 2010 VIEN DIA LY - VIEN KH&CN VIET NAM HOI D | A LY VIET NAM 2) Cdc tinh phia Nam NTB So vdi thai ky 1980 - 1999, dai miia ban dai them - song tiem nang hoang mac hda trd len nghiem trgng dtinh Ninh Thuan va cac huyen Dien Khanh, Cam Ranh ciia Khanh Hda, Tuy Phong, Bac Binh ciia Binh Thuiin, 3) Bdc Binh 'Thuan So vdi thdi ky 1980 - 1999, dii miia ban dai them - song tilm nang hoang mac hda d mirc tuong ddi nghiem trgng V KET LUAN 1) Theo kjch ban bien ddi hau cho Viet Nam, d N T B nhiet trung binh nam tang len 0,4"C vao nam 2020; 0,9 - 1,0°C vao nam 2050 va 1,2 - 2,4°C vao nam 2100 Cd dieu la ,d' NTB theo kjch ban cao mirc tang nhiet vao miia he cao hon ciia ca nam, cdn theo kjch ban thap thi ngugc lai, 2) Cung nhu kjch ban bicn ddi kbi bau cho Viet Nam, d NTB lugng mua tang khoang 1,5 - 2,0%, Tuy nhien, lugng mua khdng tang tat ca cac miia ma giam di miia ddng va miia xuan, 3) O NTB cd the phan bid hai che ban khac nhau: - Han bat dau tir miia xuan keo dai va bet sire khac ngliid vao miia he tren hau khap cac tinh - Han bat dau tir miia ddng, keo dai va khac nghid ban miia xuan d Nam Binh Thuan 4) Han ban keo dai, cang ve cudi miia cang nghiem trgng va dd, dac trung chii yeu de phan anh linh trang ban d NTB la dai miia ban 5) Trong gan 50 nam qua, dai miia ban tang Ien kbi nhiet tang ciing vdi hrgng mua giam va ngugc lai, giam di nhiet giam va lugng mua tang Dd la ca sd khoa hgc chii yeu de tinh mirc tang ciia dai miia ban lugng mua thay ddi theo kjch ban bien ddi hau d NTB the ky 21 6) Theo dimg kjch ban bien ddi tang len - theo kjch ban cao 2050, tang len 15 -75 theo kjch ban nam 2100, mirc tang se la 40 - 180 hau cho NTB, vao nam 2020, dai miia ban va - 20 theo kjch ban thap; vao nam cao va - theo kjch ban thap Den theo kjch ban cao va - theo kjch ban thap Mirc tang ndi tren bat cii' kjch ban nao, thai diem nao cung tuong ddi ihap d cac tinh phia Bac ciing nhu Nam Binh Thuan va tuong ddi cao d cac tinh phia Nam 7) Nguy CO' hoang mac hda d NTB cang ro ret, nhat la d cac tinh phia Nam: Khanh Hda, Ninh Thuan, Bac Binh Thuan Hdi ng-hi Klioa hgc Dia ly Toan qud'c la'n th&S - Ha Ndi, 2010 805 VIEN DIA LY • VIEN KH&CN VIET NAM HOI DIA LY VIET NAM TAI LIEU THAM KHAO [1], NGUVEN VAN CU'va nnk, 2000 Nguyen nhdn gidiphdp vd ngdn chgn qua trinh hoang mgc hda d Nam Trung Bg [2] NGUYEN DUC NGU' va nnk, 2002 77/;; hieu vi hgn hdn vd hoang mgc hda Nha xuat ban Khoa hgc va ky tluial [3] NGUYEN TRONG HIEU, 2000, Nguyen nhdn, giai phdp phdng ngira vd ngdn chgn qua Irinh hoang mgc hda a Trung Trung Bg [4], NGUYEN TRONG HIEU, 1995 Phdn bd hgn hdn vd tdc ddng cua elnino Vidi Khi tugng Thiiy van "" '^"'' [51 Vidi Khoa hgc Kbi tugng Thiiy van va Mdi trudng, 2009, Di dn xdy dimg han hgn hdn vd mirc thieu nuac sinh hogt a NTB vd Tdy Nguyen [6] Bg Tai ngu>'di va Moi trudng, 2009 Kich ban biin ddi lidii nude bien ddng cho J'iel \aiii doe Hdi "g'hi Klioa hoc Dia Iv Todn aud'c Id'n thi'r.^ - Ha nrA; onm ... KET LUAN 1) Theo kjch ban bien ddi hau cho Viet Nam, d N T B nhiet trung binh nam tang len 0,4"C vao nam 2020; 0,9 - 1,0°C vao nam 2050 va 1,2 - 2,4°C vao nam 2100 Cd dieu la ,d'' NTB theo kjch... cao bon trung binh nam miia xuan, miia thu va miia ddng thi ngugc lai, thap ban hoac xap xi trung binh nam Theo kjch ban vira, mirc tang nhiet trung binh so vdi thdi ky 1980 - 1999 vao cac nam ndi... 90 a phia Nam, ricng Nam Binh Thuan chi - nga'', c Kich ban thdp Theo kjch ban thip, mirc tang dai miia ban nhiet tang vao cac moc chinh nhu sau C| )Nam 2020 Tuang tir kjch ban vira c:) Nam 2050