KHOA HOC CONG NGHE IMGHIEIM CUU AIMH HUQIMG CUA BIEIM DOI KHI HAU DEIM IXIAIMG S U A T CAY LIJA, IMEO VA D A D TUQIMG O VIET IMAIVI Mai Van Trinh\ Nguyen Hong Son^ TOMTAT Nang suat ciia liia, ngo va d[.]
KHOA HOC CONG NGHE IMGHIEIM CUU AIMH HUQIMG CUA BIEIM DOI KHI HAU DEIM IXIAIMG S U A T CAY LIJA, IMEO V A D A D TUQIMG O VIET IMAIVI Mai Van Trinh\ Nguyen Hong Son^ TOMTAT Nang suat ciia liia, ngo va dau tuong da duac mo phong, tinh toan theo cac kich ban: Khi hau c6 phat thai cao (A2) ciia Bo Tai nguyen va Moi truong va kich ban kho va uot (ISPL va GISS) sii dung phan mem phat trien cay WOFOST Ket qua nghien cuu cho thay voi su bien doi hau theo kich ban cua Bo TN&MT thi nang suat tiem nang cua cay trong nhung nam 2030 va 2050 giam tuong doi deu a cac vung ca nuoc Nang suat tiem nang cua cay bi giam khong dong d^u va giam manh a mot so viing dong bing ven bien Neu tinh den yeu to han che nang suat la ntrac thi c6 sir khac biet rat Ion ve nang suat cay a cac kich ban kho GSPL) va kich ban uot (GISS), am va sir phan bo mua dugc tang cuong hon a kich ban uot, nang suat cay tang cao hon Am va luong mua giam a kich ban kho va kich ban cua Bo TN&MT va nang suat bj giam manh Tuy nhien tai mot so viing sir thay doi am va sir phan bo mua van theo huong c6 Igi hon, vi the sinh truong phat trien va nang suat cay van tang Nhung anh huong rat quan va can duoc hieu ro hon de phuc vu cho bo tri ca cau cay va thoi vu phu hop de tranh thiet hai ve nang suat cay trdng Tirkhoa: Kich ban bien doi hau, mo phong, nang suit tiSm nang, nang suit han che, suygiain nang suat I OAT VAN DE Q Viet Nam, khoang 50 nam qua, nhiet trung binh nam da tang khoang 0,7°C, mirc nuoc bien da dang khoang 0,20 m Hien tugng El-Nino, LaNina cang tac dong manh me den Viet Nam BDKH thirc su da lam cho cac thien tai, dac biet la bao, lu, han han cang ac liet Neu nuoc bien dang cao phan 1cm dien tich dong bang ven bien Viet Nam se bi ngap, cac tinh thupc dong bang song Ciru Long (DBSCL) se c6 dien tich bi ngap nhieu nhat (Tran Thuc, 2008; MONRE, 2003, 2009) Thang nam 2009, sau nhieu no lire ciing cac nha khoa hoc va ngoai nuoc nghien cuu ve anh huong cua BDKH va nuoc bien dang, Bo Tai nguyen va Moi truong (TN&MT) da ban hanh cac kich ban ve bien doi hau va nuoc bien dang a phan giai cao hon tren pham vi cac viing sinh thai toan quoc Cac kich ban chu yeu cung cap cho chiing ta van de bien doi v6 nhiet do, lugng mua va phan bd mua cho timg viing sinh thai cua cac nam tuong lai den nam 2100 tren cac kich ban phat thai thap (BI), trung binh (B2, Al) va cao (A2) va kha nang nuoc bien dang tai vung DBSCL va Thanh Ho Chi Minh a cac kich ban 65, 75 va 100 cm (MONRE, 2009) Theo u6c tinh cua Bp NN&PTNT (MARD, 2008) BDKH se dan den hien tuong mat dat canh tac di dan, cac qua trinh man hoa, phen hoa, cac hien tuong ngap lut, han han va bao to cung se gia tang lam giam nang suat va san luong cay Nhiet tang se dan den nang suat cay va tong san luong luong thuc c6 the bj giam toi 10% Nang suat Ilia miia c6 the se giam khoang 3-6% vao nam 2070 so voi giai doan 1960-1998 Nang suat liia xuan o mi6n Bac CO the giam den 17% vao nam 2070, mien Nam CO the giam den 8% Nang suat ngo xuan c6 the giam den 4% a mien Trung va 9% o mien Nam Trong tai mot so viing mien Bac, BDKH c6 the se c6 tac dung tot len vi nang suat ngo c6 the tang den 7% (Nguyfen van Viet, 2005) De kiem chimg lai cac nghien cuu da c6, dong thoi CO cai nhin dung mirc ve anh huong c6 Igi va bat loi cua BDKH den san xuat miia vu tai Viet Nam dk tai nghien ciru anh huong cua BDKH den san xuat cay liia, ngo va dau tuong tren cac viing sinh thai ciia ca nuoc da duoc thuc hien Vi?n Moi truong Nong nghi^p NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY - THANG 6/2011 KHOA HOC CONG N G H | n PHUONG Kich ban cua B6 TN&MT a mure phat thai cao PHAP NGHEN CUU Nghien ciru dupe tien hanh theo cac buoc: lira chpn kich ban, lira chpn mo hinh, lira chpn dau vao, hieu chinh mo hinh va hoan thien mo hinh de c6 ket qua tinh toan chuan xac Cac buoc nghien ciru dupe mo ta nhu sau: Kich ban BDKH Trong nghien ciru nay, loai kich ban BDKH dupe ap dung nghien ciru va dupe mo ta nhu sau: A2 Can cu vao kich ban BDKH cua Bp TN&MT (MONRE, 2009) kich ban goc A2 la kich ban "th^ gioi khong dong nhat, cac quoc gia hoat dong doc lap, tu cung tu cap; dan so tiep tuc tang the' ky 21; kinh te phat trien theo dinh huong khu vuc; thay doi ve cong nghe va toe dp tang truong kinh te tinh theo dau nguoi cham" Cac ehi tieu thay doi ve nhiet dp va luong mua dupe trinh bay a bang Bang Mirc tang nhi$t dp trung binh nam ("C) v^ miJrc thay doi lupmg mira nam (%) so v6i th6i ky 19801999 - Kich ban phit thai cao (A2) Lupng mira Nhiet Viing 2050 2070 2100 2030 2100 2050 2070 2030 3,7 5,6 9,3 2,1 1,3 2,0 Tay Bdc 3,3 0,8 2,8 5,7 0,7 3,2 2,2 9,3 1,3 Dong Bac 1.9 Dong bang Bac bp 3,8 10,1 0,7 2,3 1,9 3,1 6,1 1,3 1,5 2,2 0,9 Bac Trung bp 2,3 3,7 3,6 9,7 5,9 Nam Trung bp 0,5 1,0 2,4 2,5 1,5 1,0 1,7 4,1 Tay Nguyen 0,5 0,8 0,4 0,7 1.:? 2,1 1.8 1,1 0,5 Nam bp 2,6 0,4 0,7 1,0 U') 1,2 1,9 Nguon: trich tu MONRE (2009) Tong so CO 25 diem quan trac va tinh toan phan bd deu tren cac viing sinh thai nong nghiep Moi diem dai dien cho mot tieu viing viing sinh thai Ion Sir dai dien dupe xac dinh theo phuong phap da giac Thiesen - Kich ban kho Gnstitute Pierre Simon Laplace ISPL) va kich ban uot (Goddard Institute for Space Studies - GISS) 14 kich ban BDKH dupe thu thap voi dai sd lieu tir nam 1971-2000 Tir cac thdng sd hau cua cac kich ban cac chi sd am, ehi sd kho va dp am dupe tinh mot each chi tiet Sau tinh toan va so sanh cac gia tri cua cac chi sd giiira cac kich ban chiing dupe phan loai va xep hang theo thu tu tir rat kho den rat uot (Tingju, 2009) Kich ban kho hay uot phan nao se cd anh huong den che dp nhiet, che dp mua, dp am cua moi truong va dd anh huong den sinh truong va phat trien ciia cay trdng Trong sd 14 kich ban kich ban dai dien cho cue tri khd va cue tri uot dupe chpn lam dau vao cho qua trinh md phong de xem sir tac ddng cua ehung d cac cue tri khac Trong moi kich ban cd tong sd 114 diem dem cac chi tieu hau va tinh toan md hinh BDKH Tinh todn ning su^t cAy trdng theo cAc kjch ban BDKH Nang suat lua, ngo va dau tuong dupe tinh toan sir dung mo hinh phat trien cay trdng WOFOST (Boogaard et al, 1998) cho cac nam 2030 va 2050 Do chinh xac cua md hinh WOFOST da dupe kiem dinh, hieu chinh theo Mai Van Trinh va Tran Xuan Dinh (2005) va IRMLA (2005) Cac loai cay trdng dupe lira chpn la nhimg gidng trdng phd bien thdi gian cua giai doan tham chieu (1980-1999), gidng liia Khang Dan dai dien cho mien BSc va mien Trung, gidng IR72 dai dien cho mien Nam, gidng ngo LVNIO va gidng dau tuong DT84 dupe sir dung ehung cho tat ea cac viing sinh thai ca nude Trude het nang suat tiem nang va nang suat bj han chd nude cua lua xuan, lua miia, ngd xuan va dau tuong dupe md phong cho dieu kien hau thuc t^ quan trSc cua 25 tram tren cac viing sinh thai khac giai doan 1980-1999 de lam nang suat tham chieu Sau dd cac loai nang suat cay trdng tiep tuc dupe tinh toan theo kich ban (Bd TNMT, ISPL va GISS) Sir thay doi nang suat cay trdng dupe so sanh giua nang suat cua kich ban tai thdi diem 2030 va 2050 so voi nang suat tham chieu giai doan 1980-1999 NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY - THANG 6/2011 KHOA HOC CONG NGHE • KET QUA NGHEN CUU DiSn bi^n nang suat ti^m nang theo khong gian Cac kich ban BDKH dugc mo phong cho 25 diem quan trac tren toan qude ddi voi kich ban Bd TNMT va cho 114 diem cua kich ban ISPL va GISS (Hinh 1) Tai moi vi tri deu cd su thay ddi v^ cac yeu td thdi tiet nhu tang len hay giam di cua cac yeu td nhiet dp, anh sang, lupng mua hay tdc dp gid Chinh vi vay ma cd sir bien ddi cue bd cac yeu td hau tai moi diem cua kich ban Tai nhieu vi tri nhiet dd va lupng mua tang len hoac giam xudng dan den cd su thay ddi ngugc chieu giira cac diem, dac biet cac diem cd dieu kien dia hinh va viing sinh thai khac Ket qua tinh toan nang suat cay trdng theo khong gian ciing the hien rat ro nang suat cay trdng la ket qua cua su bien ddng cac yeu td hau Tai cac diem cue Bae, dac biet la Tay Bac thi tiSm nang nang suat cay trdng rat cao tai cac viing ven bien ddng bang sdng Hong (DBSH), Bac Trung bp thi nang suat lai khong cao, tham chi lai giam manh Quan trac dien bidn nang suat cua kich ban khd va udt cho thay cd sir the hien rat ro va cd nhi6u khac giixa kich ban Nang suat circ dai cd the dat dupe a kich ban udt (c va d) va Ion hon d kich ban kho (a va b) O kich ban kho, nang suat tiem nang d viing Bac bp tuong ddi ddng deu song d kich ban udt thi cd sir khac rat Idn vd nang suat tiem nang giira phia Tay Bac va Ddng Bac O kich ban kho thi nang suat d viing Bac va Nam Trung bd thap (bieu hien cua nhiet dd cao, lupng mua giam theo hudng cue doan) edn d kich ban udt nang suat lai tang d cac vung cac hien tupng hau cue doan khong gay gat lam Nang suat tidm nang v^ su suy giam nang suat BDKH Bang Nang su^t ti^m nang cua liia xuan va liia miia (kg/ha) d giai doan tham chi^u 1980-1999, ckc nam 2030 va 2050 cac viing sinh thai nong nghiep kh^c NS Tham Viing sinh thai chieu Kich ban ISPL Kich ban GISS Mirc giam Mirc giam NS (kg/ha) NS (kg/ha) NS NS 2030- 20502030- ^050(TC) 2030 2050 2030 2050 TC TC Tc frc Kich ban Bp T N va M T Mirc giam NS (kg/ha) NS 2030-^0502030 2050 Tc [rc Liiaxuin DBSH 10403 8232 8011 -2172 -2392 7210 12 6779 -3194 -3625 10184 369 8088 7789 9670 -219 -734 544 245 7049 6864 -495 -681 529 193 7163 6880 -378 -661 DBSCL 7544 7556 7914 Dong Nam bp 7541 8321 8597 780 1057 8069 7734 Tay Bac 11636 8382 8216 -3254 -3420 10339 8807 -1297 -2829 10930 10301 -706 -1335 Dong Bac Tay Nguyen 13838 8237 8175 -5601 -5663 9166 7924 -4672 -5914 13555 13294 -283 12056 7347 7168 -4709 -4888 8959 7861 -3098 -4195 11354 10826 -702 -1230 BacTB 10137 7784 7010 -2352 -3126 8183 7202 -1953 -2935 9870 9272 -267 -865 NamTB 9525 7483 7290 -2042 -2236 9142 7850 -383 -1676 9156 8825 -369 -701 DBSH 10403 9429 7708 -975 -2695 9240 8238 -1163 -2166 10184 9670 -219 -734 DBSCL 7005 5719 5424 -1286 -1581 6433 6345 -572 -660 6607 6398 -398 -607 Ddng Nam bd 6998 5694 5599 -1304 -1399 6456 6366 -542 -631 6637 6501 -361 -497 969 -267 10930 10301 -706 -1335 -544 Liia miia Tay Bac 11636 9648 7861 -1988 -3775 12605 11369 Dong Bde 13838 9778 7805 -4061 -6033 10898 9801 -2940 -4037 13555 13294 -283 Tay Nguyen 12056 6731 5734 -5325 -6322 8174 7922 -3883 -4134 11354 10826 -702 -1230 Bac Trung bd 10137 7525 6320 -2612 -3816 7032 6271 -3104 -3866 9870 9272 -267 -865 Nam Trung bd 9525 6839 5722 -2686 -3803 8433 8129 -1092 -1397 9156 8825 -369 -701 Nguon: Vien Moj truong Nong nghiep (2009) NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY - THANG 6/2011 -544 KHOA HOC CONG NGHE hudng cua kich ban udt va kich ban khd Tuy nhien trudng hop tinh cac loai nang suat han che nude thi sir phu thupc vao dac tinh udt cua kich ban rat Idn Ket qua d bang cho thay hau het nang suat lua deu bi giam vao cac nam 2030 va 2050 (trir ddng bang song Ciru Long va Dong Nam bp cd nang suat lua tang d kich ban khd va kich ban udt) Neu so sanh giiia kich ban thi nang suat lua a kich ban cua Bd TN&MT cd su suy giam la nhd nhat va tuong ddi ddng deu, hai kich ban edn lai deu cd sir suy giam nang suat manh Vi day la nang suat tiem nang, chi tinh den cac tidm nang san xuat dua tren ngudn nhiet dp va anh sang nen khong danh gia dupe su anh Sd lieu tinh toan cung cho thay sir suy giam nang suat giai doan trude nam 2030 la rat Idn Nang suat suy giam giai doan 2050 nhd hon nhieu, sir suy giam cung khac d timg viing sinh thai cd sir thay ddi ve dieu kien thdi tiet hau khac Bang Nang suat ti^m nang cua ngo va dau tuong (kg/ha) d giai doan tham chi^u 1980-1999, cac nam 2030 va 2050 cAe vimg sinh thai nong nghi$p khae NS Kich ban ISPL Kich ban GISS Kich ban Bd T N M T Tham N S (kg/ha) M u e giam N S N S (kg/ha) Mirc giam N S N S (kg/ha) Mirc giam Viing sinh thai chi^u NS ac) 2030 2050 2030- 2050- TC 2030 2050 TC 2030- 2050- TC TC 2030 2050 2030- 2050 TC -TC Ng6 DBSH 11144 9069 8997 -2075 -2147 8420 7978 DBSCL 8249 7696 7268 -553 -982 8172 7920 Dong Nam bp 8198 8174 7751 -25 -448 8199 7940 Tay Bac 11595 9211 9153 -2384 Dong Bac 12938 9155 9143 Tay Nguyen 11185 8264 Bac Trung bd 10754 Nam Trung bd 9526 -2724 -3166 11034 10676 -77 -329 7871 -258 7862 -109 -467 7666 -378 -583 7674 -337 -525 -2442 10143 9187 -1453 -2408 11248 10825 -348 -770 -3783 -3795 9356 8610 -3582 -4327 12648 12420 -290 -517 7969 -2921 -3216 8964 8300 -2220 -2885 10810 10481 -374 -703 8604 8162 -2150 -2592 8640 7922 -2114 -2832 10640 10224 -114 -530 8433 8158 -1093 -1368 9138 8381 -388 -1145 9288 9071 -238 -454 Dau tuong DBSH 3980 4311 4679 332 699 2499 2159 -1481 -1820 3932 3853 DBSCL 3153 2675 2930 -478 -223 1553 1095 -1600 -2058 3096 2912 -47 -127 -56 -241 Dong Nam bd 3177 3233 2896 56 -281 1543 1084 -1634 -2093 3000 2985 -178 -192 Tay Bde 4194 3932 4561 -262 367 3042 2658 -1151 -1535 4118 3947 Dong Bde 4683 4080 4490 -603 -193 2772 2404 -1911 -2279 4632 4543 -75 -247 -51 -140 Tay Nguyen 4191 2762 3007 -1429 -1184 1911 1629 -2280 -2561 4063 3941 -128 -250 Bde Trung bd 3862 4760 4583 898 721 1902 1812 -1960 -2050 3813 3718 Nam Trung bd 3598 2851 3098 -747 -500 1995 1753 -1604 -1845 3515 3395 -49 -145 -84 -203 Nguon: Vien Moi trudng Nong nghiep (2009) Vdi cay ngo va dau tuong, quy luat suy giam nang suat d nhimg nam 2030 va 2050 cung tuong tu nhu vdi cay lua Tuy nhien mue dd suy giam ciia loai cay cd khac hon Vdi cay ngo, nang suat suy giam manh hon d hai kjch ban ISPL va GISS va giam manh giai doan hien tai den nam 2030 va giam it hon giai doan 2030-2050 Suy giam nang suat ^^y '^^"S ^ kich ban cua Bd TN&MT ehi bang khoang mot phan mudi so vdi hai kich ban ISPL va GISS Nang suat dau tuong edn cd xu hudng tang tai cac viing ddng bang song Hong va Bde Trung bd theo kjch ban ISPL song lai bi giam cac kich ban GISS va Bp TN&MT Sir suy giam nang suat NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY - THANG 6/2011 KHOA HOC C N G NGHfi dau kich ban cua Bp TN&MT la rait nhd, tdi da la -250 kg/ha tai Tay Nguyen, sir suy giam nang suat lai rat Idn d kich ban GISS dao dong tir 26 den 61% so vdi nang suat tham chieu giai doan 19801999 Dieu het sire quan trpng viec xac dinh CO cau gidng cay trdng va miia vu thich hpp de tranh sir mat nang suat cay trdng BDKH gay Sir suy giam nang su^t han ch^ nude Bang Nang su^t bi han ch^ v^ nude giai doan tham chi^u 1980-1999 (kg/ha), va sir suy giam nang su^t edc nam 2030 va 2050 tr^n cAc viing sinh thai ndng nghiep khac Viing sinh thai NS tham chieu Kich ban GISS Kich ban ISPL 2030-BL 2050-BL 2030-BL 2050-BL Luaxu^n -1010 -1524 4400 4096 6895 123 7482 -109 -147 -4 7452 6878 2684 6164 4592 -1961 -2824 -855 -7704 -1818 -6222 2666 -6222 1627 1499 -819 7413 5901 -551 8504 7284 -572 Liia miia 3980 3914 3784 3576 1056 974 1028 1003 1427 1282 881 1277 51 5907 5961 -392 -4579 -1151 -1099 -4736 175 2577 -19 2441 142 -746 -22 -749 6906 4369 6521 4135 Ng6 511 -44 -7 180 -1484 -3697 -789 380 130 -66 -7 -513 -1672 -4134 -999 320 511 -129 -56 180 -1484 -775 -789 380 130 -122 -41 -513 -1672 -1212 -999 320 4177 1772 1398 733 224 -127 -151 -455 672 240 -508 -512 DBSH DBSCL Dong Nam bp Tay Bde Dong Bde Tay Nguyen Bde Trung bp Nam Trung bo 2820 513 508 4194 9703 3338 1193 592 DBSH DBSCL Dong Nam bo Tay Bde Dong Bde Tay Nguyen Bde Trung bo Nam Trung bp 2820 513 508 4194 9703 3338 1193 592 DBSH 3801 4506 -387 4630 DBSCL 776 140 -104 1008 222 Dong Nam bo Kich ban T N M T 2030-BL 2050-BL Tay Bde 5290 2329 -1365 9788 2006 715 -3 Dong Bde 9680 -1947 -6692 -326 -2104 -2055 -2110 Tay Nguyen 3617 -3451 -3485 3727 1201 -1393 -1696 Bde Trung bo 1281 2140 -295 239 -567 -663 -927 Nam Trung bp 1245 -1059 -1108 6694 4647 483 312 DBSH 1300 -328 2585 1781 1596 502 2618 DBSCL 768 1903 2073 271 133 -512 -480 Dong Nam bp 400 2129 2368 463 307 -106 -118 Tay Bde 1992 -431 1906 1605 1652 550 222 Dong Bde 3283 -145 -1782 854 605 -665 -753 Tay Nguyen Bde Trung bp 1998 700 -1690 266 -1765 1070 525 732 264 1521 -394 -100 -632 -250 Nam Trung bp 935 -716 -724 1664 1374 113 95 Dau tuong Ngudn: Vidn Mdi trudng Ndng nghiep (2009) NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY - THANG 6/2011 KHOA HOC CdNG NGHE Neu tinh den yeu td han che la nude thi sir suy giam ve nang suat cay trdng dien rat dang ke va khong thdng nhat cac vung sinh thai va cac ddi tupng cay trdng khac Sir suy giam phan anh diing mirc dp thay ddi phiic tap ciia cac yeu td hau, dac biet tinh den ban chat khd va udt cua cac loai kinh ban hau Voi Ilia xuan, nang suat giam manh d kich ban kho (ISPL) va kich ban Bd TN va MT nhung lai tang d kich ban udt (GISS) Vi kich ban kho va kich ban Bd TN va MT thi ngoai viec nhiet dp tang len, nhung lupng mua lai bi giam di miia kho (ke ca vu xuan) dan den nude bi thieu va anh hudng den nang suat cay trdng Trong dd kich ban udt thi lupng mua va dp am khong cao hon, sir thieu nude xay yeu hon, tac ddng suy giam nang suat Cling nhe hon Trong vu miia, hau nhu lupng nude mua dap img dii cho sir sinh trudng va phat trien cua cay trdng nen su suy giam nang suat thieu nude la khong Idn Idm Tuy nhien tai cac viing Dong Bde, Bde Trung bd va Tay Nguyen ddi vdi kich ban udt va Bd TN va MT lupng mua se bi giam dang ke nen nang suat vdn bi suy giam manh Vdi cay ngd thi nang suat kich ban khd se tang nhe d cac viing DBSH, DBSCL, DNB va Tay Bde tir den nam 2030, nhung sau dd bi giam, giam manh nhat d Dong Bde va Tay Nguyen Ddi vdi kich ban udt, nang suat ehi bi giam d Ddng Bde va Bde Trung bp (giai doan 2050) cd su thay ddi Idn ve lupng mua, edn lai nang suat tang lupng mira va am dp thich hpp hon cho sir sinh trudng, phat trien ciia cay Tuy nhien, theo kich ban Bp TN va MT thi nang suat bi giam d hau het cac viing sinh thai Vdi dau tuong, sir thay ddi ve am dd va lupng mua cua kich ban udt rat phii hpp cho su sinh trudng phat trien cua dau tuong va tang nang suat dau tuong rat manh Tai mot sd viing nhu DBSCL, Dong Nam bd, Bde Trung bp (giai doan nam 2050) sir thay ddi v^ am dd va lupng mua cung thuan Ipi hon va tang nang suat dau tuong len ddn tren 2500 kg/ha Ddi vdi kich ban Bd TN va MT thi d DBSH, Tay Bde va Nam Trung bp sir thay ddi am dp va phan bd mua la thuan Ipi hon cho sir sinh trudng phat trien cua dau tuong va tang nang suat dau cac viing edn lai su bien ddi hau trd len khde nghiet hon va lam giam nang suat cay dau tuong mot each dang ke IV KET LUAN Ddi vdi sir bien ddi hau mac dii d kich ban cua Bp TN va MT hay d kich ban khd (ISPL) hay udt (GISS) thi sir gia tang vd nhiet do, bien doi ve chat lupng anh sang deu theo hudng bat Ipi cho sir sinh trudng, phat trien cua cay trdng, dSn den nang suat tiem nang bi giam manh Tuy nhien vdi kich ban cua Bp TN va MT thi sir suy giam nang suat tiem nang la nhd hon Sir thay ddi ve am dp va sir phan bd mua cd anh hudng rat manh den sinh trudng, phat trien cua cay trdng Vdi kich ban udt thi dieu kien dp am va phan bd mua theo hudng tich cue hon; sinh trudng, phat trien etia cay trdng tot hon va nang suat cao hon Dac biet miia mua thi lupng mua kich ban udt la Idn hon, nang suat cay trdng vi the eQng tang manh hon vu miia Tuy nhien tai mdt sd viing nhd cd sir thay ddi xau di nen nang suat cay trdng cung bi giam Vdi kich ban khd va kich ban cua Bo TNMT thi su bien ddi ve am dd va phan bd mua hau nhu theo hudng xau di (am dp thap hon, lupng mua giam ro ret) lam sinh trudng, phat trien cua cay trdng giam nen nang suat cay trdng ciing bi giam Nhung cung tai mdt sd viing sir bien ddi hau lai tdt len va nang suat cay trdng lai tang len TAI [0 THAM KHAG Boogaard, H L, Van Diepen, C A., Roetter, R P., Cabrera, J M C A and Van Laar, H H., 1998 WOFOST 7.1 User's guide for the WOFOST 7.1 crop growth simulation model and WOFOST Control Center 1.5 Alterra Wageningen, the Netherlands 143 pp IPCC, 2007 Climate Change Synthesis Report IRMLA 2005 Systems research for integrated resource management and land use analysis in east and southeast asia Wageningen University, the Netherlands MARD, 2008 Bd Ndng nghiep va PTNT Hudng tdi k^ hoaeh hanh ddng cho thich img va giam thieu tac ddng ciia bi^n doi hau nganh NN&PTNT Hdi thao 11 thang gidng nam 2008 MONRE, 2003 The initial statement of Vietnam for International Convention on climate change NONG NGHIfP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY - THANG 6/2011 KHOA HOC CdNG N G H £ MONRE 2009 Kich ban bien ddi hau va nude bien dang cho Viet Nam Bd Tai nguyen va Mdi trudng tuong tren viing ddng bang sdng Hdng sir dung md hinh phat trien cay trdng Tap ehi Khoa hoe Dat 24, tr 99-104 Nguydn Van Viet, 2005 Global climate changes and rice food security Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 10 Vien Mdi trudng Ndng nghiep, 2009 Nghien ciru ve tac ddng cua bien ddi hau va tinh kinh t^ thich img vdi bien ddi hau Bao cao cho Ngan hang The gidi nam 2009 Tingju, Z., 2009 Climate Outlook to 2050: Selection of Climate Scenarios using Averaged Moisture Indices EACC-Vietnam-Agriculture & Water Mai Van Trinh va Tran Xuan Dinh, 2005 Danh gia tiem nang nang suat eua lua, ngd va dau 11 World Bank, 2007 Global Economic Prospects: Managing the next v^^ave of globalization The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Washington, DC STUDY THE IMPACT OF CUMATE CHANGE ON CEREAL CROP PRODUCTION IN VIET NAM Mai Van Trinh, Nguyen Hong Son Summary Yield of rice, maize and soybean were simulated according to high emission climate change scenarios (A2) generate by MONRE, ISPL and GISS scenarios used the crop grow model WOFOST Research results showed that according to MONRE scenario crop yield in 2030 and 2050 decrease relatively in agroecological zones Potential yield decreased differently in different agro-ecological zones and strongly decreased in coastal zones Taking into account the water limited yield there are large different in water bmited yields simulated from dry scenario GSPL) and wet scenario (GISS), in which moisture and rainfall are higher in wet scenario, consequendy, crop yields are higher Crop yields are reduced in dry and MONRE scenarios because of reduction of moisture and rainfall However, moisture and rainfall distribution tend to more possitive in several agro-ecological zones, growing of crops will be better and, hence, crop yield also higher These impacts are very important and should be taken into account for designing new land use and suitable crop calendars to avoid the damages of extreme events Keyword: Climate change scenario, simulation, potential yield, water limited yield, yield reduction Ngudi phan bi^n: TS Biii Huy Hi^n NONG NGHIfP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY - THANG 6/2011 ^ i ... DBSH DBSCL Dong Nam bp Tay Bde Dong Bde Tay Nguyen Bde Trung bp Nam Trung bo 2820 513 508 4194 9703 3338 1193 592 DBSH DBSCL Dong Nam bo Tay Bde Dong Bde Tay Nguyen Bde Trung bo Nam Trung bp 2820... 1,3 1,5 2,2 0,9 Bac Trung bp 2,3 3,7 3,6 9,7 5,9 Nam Trung bp 0,5 1,0 2,4 2,5 1,5 1,0 1,7 4,1 Tay Nguyen 0,5 0,8 0,4 0,7 1.:? 2,1 1.8 1,1 0,5 Nam bp 2,6 0,4 0,7 1,0 U'') 1,2 1,9 Nguon: trich tu... Idn Ket qua d bang cho thay hau het nang suat lua deu bi giam vao cac nam 2030 va 2050 (trir ddng bang song Ciru Long va Dong Nam bp cd nang suat lua tang d kich ban khd va kich ban udt) Neu so