Microsoft Word THESIS DANG THI LY LY VNP 19 V3 docx UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES HO CHI MINH CITY THE HAGUE VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M A IN DEVE[.]
UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES HO CHI MINH CITY THE HAGUE VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS IMPACTS OF FOOD SAFETY REGULATIONS ON VIETNAM SEAFOOD EXPORT BY DANG THI LY LY MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY, February 2016 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES HO CHI MINH CITY THE HAGUE VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS IMPACTS OF FOOD SAFETY REGULATIONS ON VIETNAM SEAFOOD EXPORT A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS By DANG THI LY LY Academic Supervisor: Dr NGUYEN HOANG BAO HO CHI MINH CITY, February 2016 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com ABSTRACT This paper employs gravity model to analyze the bilateral seafood trade between Vietnam and 17 countries from 1997 to 2012 The panel data is taken from Vietnam General Statistics Organization, International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales The Hausman Test indicates that fixed effects model is suitable for estimating the regression The estimation results show that food safety regulations and exchange rate significantly affect seafood export On the other hands, importing GDP and distance is statistically insignificant Also the trade potential result reveals that Vietnam has many opportunities to develop trade with Europe partners Key words: Gravity Model, seafood export, Vietnam iii LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I have made great efforts to finish this thesis; nevertheless, it would have not been finished without support of many individual and organizations I highly appreciate their full support during this hard time Iwould like toespecially thank all of my academic supervisors, the Scientific Committee, and staff of Vietnam- Netherlands Program for their guidance and support with this thesis Finally,I would like to express my special appreciation to my whole family and classmates for helping me complete this thesis iv LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT iv LIST OF FIGURES viii LIST OF TABLES viii LIST OF APPENDICES viii ABBREVIATIONS ix CHAPTER INTRODUCTION .1 1.1 Problem statement 1.2 Significance of study .3 1.3 Research objective 1.4 Research question 1.5 Scope of study .3 1.6 Structure of thesis CHAPTER FOOD SAFETY AND VIETNAM SEAFOOD EXPORT 2.1 Food safety and policy context .5 2.1.1 Food safety .5 2.1.2 Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) 2.1.3 European laws 2.1.4 Japan laws .7 2.2 Overview of vietnam seafood sector in vietnam 2.3 Evidence of food safety standards (sps agreement and technical barrier) impact on vietnam exports CHAPTER 3.LITERATURE REVIEW 12 3.1 Theoretical review of gravity model 12 3.2 Different origin of a product 13 3.3 Trade and monopolistic competition 13 v LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com 3.4 Trade and differing factor endowments 14 3.5 Trade and differences in production technologies 14 3.6 Empirical literature 15 CHAPTER 4.RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND DATA 18 4.1 Data collection .18 4.2 Methodology 24 4.2.1 Model specification .25 • Theoretical gravity model with importer fixed effects ………………… 26 • Theoretical gravity model with time and importer fixed effects………… 26 • Theoretical gravity model with random effects…………………………… 26 4.2.2 Dependent variables 26 4.2.3 Independent variables 26 • Vietnam’s output of seafood 26 • Population 27 • Exchange rate 27 • Food safety regulations between importing and exporting country 27 • Importing country’s GDP 27 • Distance 28 4.2.4 Estimation method 29 CHAPTER EMPIRICAL RESULTS 30 5.1 Results of Breusch-Pagan Lagrange Multiplier test, the Huasman Test, and checking of Heteroskedasticity 30 5.2 Gravity model’s estimation result .31 5.3 Trade potential .33 5.3.1 Vietnam trade potential evaluation .34 CHAPTER CONCLUSION 36 6.1 Findings .36 vi LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com 6.2 Policy implications 37 6.3 Limitations and recommendations for future research 37 REFERENCES 39 LIST OF APPENDICES 45 vii LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com LIST OF FIGURES Figure1.1: Vietnam seafood export (1997-2012) Figure 2.1: Total Vietnam aquaculture export (1999-2011) Figure 4.1: Average Vietnam seafood export volume (1997-2012) 18 Figure 4.2: Relationship between Vietnam seafood export and output 19 Figure 4.3: Relationship between Vietnam seafood export and importing countries’ GDP 20 Figure 4.4: Relationship between Vietnam seafood export and Japan’s GDP 21 Figure 4.5: Relationship between Vietnam seafood export and USA’s GDP 21 Figure 4.6: Relationship between Vietnam seafood export and EU15’s GDP 22 Figure 4.7: Relationship between Vietnam seafood export and distance 23 LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Violations of seafood hygiene standards by Vietnamese Exports, 2002-2007 Table 3.1: Summary of Empirical Studies 16 Table 4.1: Descriptive statistics of variable in the model 24 Table 4.2: Definition and measurements of all variables in this study 28 Table 5.1: Estimation results of gravity model (aggregate seafood) 31 Table 5.2: Trade potential between Vietnam and USA, Japan and EC-15 34 Table 5.3: Time of convergence 35 LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix 1: List of 15 European countries 45 Appendix 2: Regression Results 46 viii LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com ABBREVIATIONS CEPII Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FDA Food and Drug Administration HACCP Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point Certification System MOIT Ministry of Industry and Trade NAVIQAFED National Fisheries Quality Assurance and Veterinary Directorate SPS Sanitary and Phytosanitory Standard TPP Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement TQM Total Quality Management VASEP The Vietnamese Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers WTO World Trade Organization ix LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 1.1 Problem statement Since 1984 the record of world seafood export has increased remarkably and achieved USD 102.5 billion in 2010 (FAO, 2012) The top three largest markets have been EU, Japan and United States 49 percent of world exportvalue has been from many developing countries such as Vietnam, China, Africa, etc., (FAO, 2012) 8.538e+08 Japan U.S.A export_USD 8e+08 6e+08 4e+08 2e+08 EU-15 1995 2000 2005 year 2010 2015 Source: GSO (2015) Figure 1.1: Vietnam seafood export (1997-2012) The value of seafood export has recently had a great contribution to Vietnam GDP, about 4-5% Its aquatic product export has become one of four major export products in terms of value In 2014, export value of seafood was USD 7.84 million, 16.5% higher than 2013 (FAO, 2012) According to Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Processors (VASEP), in 2014 Vietnam exceeded the target of USD LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com ... their guidance and support with this thesis Finally,I would like to express my special appreciation to my whole family and classmates for helping me complete this thesis iv LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG... REGULATIONS ON VIETNAM SEAFOOD EXPORT A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS By DANG THI LY LY Academic Supervisor: Dr NGUYEN... markets The data includes 237 observations of Vietnam seafood export from 199 7 to 2012 1.6 Structure of thesis This thesis is divided into six chapters with structure as below: LUAN VAN CHAT