PHAT TRIEN KINH TE So 264, Thdng MUdi ndm 2012 CHI PHI, LOI ICH DAU TV CHO GIAO DUC DAI HOC VIET NAM VA LO T R I N H CAI CACH HQC PHI THEO NHOM NGANH PHUNG XUAN NHA* & PHAM XUAN HOAN* Phdn tich ti le[.]
PHAT TRIEN KINH TE So 264, Thdng MUdi ndm 2012 CHI PHI, LOI ICH DAU TV CHO GIAO DUC DAI HOC VIET NAM VA LO T R I N H CAI CACH HQC PHI THEO NHOM NGANH PHUNG XUAN NHA* & PHAM XUAN HOAN* Phdn tich ti le thu hoi von ddu tu cho gido due, nghien ciru ndy ket luan ddu tu cho gido due ctia VN khong tudn thu quy ludt Iffi ich can bien gidm ddn Do dd, tdng hpc phi vd tdng ddu tu cho gido due dai hpc se ldm tdng ti le thu hoi vdn ddu tu, ndi cdch khdc tdng hieu qud dau tu: Hpc phi dai hpc quy dinh tai Nghi dinh 49/2010/ND-CP se tdng han ldn giai doan 2011-2015 Thdng qua phuang phdp so sdnh giiia chi phi ddo tgo thirc te vd chi phi ddo tgo hap li, nghien ciru ket ludn ket thiic giai dogn cdi cdch hpc phi ndy cdc ca sd ddo tgo dai hpc mdi chi dap ifng duffc khodng 2/3 nhu cdu ve tdi chinh cdn thiet de thuc Men duac mire chat luang ddo tgo trung binh cua the gidi Lp trlnh hpp li cdi cdch hgc phi nhdm ngdnh nong nghiep, ldm nghiep vd thuy sdn la 15 ndm vd cdc nhdm ngdnh ddo tgo dai hpc lgi Id 10 ndm Tir khda: Cdi cdch hoc phi, chi phi dan vi chi phi thitc te chi phi hop li Gidi thieu Giao due la mdt ITnh vyc dac biet Mdt mat, giao due la quyen lpi cda cdng dan, vi thdng qua giao due ngudi hieu biet hon, tan hudng cupc sdng tdt ban, sdng hanh phuc ban Mat khac, giao dye cung ddng thdi la mot linh vyc dau tu': Dau tu' tien vdn kinh phi va thdi gian de nang cao trinh dp nham nang cao nang suat lao ddng Tren phuong dien phan bd ngan sach, cang nhieu nudc chuyen chi cho giao dye tu hang muc chi diudng xuyen sang chi dau tu, coi chi giao due la chi dau tu phat trien So vdi ti le thu hdi vdn cho giao dye d cac nude dang phat trien nghien cdn cda Psacharopoulos & Patrinos (2002), ti le thu hdi vdn dau tu cho giao due cda VN la thap Theo quy luat lpi ich can bien giam dan, neu dau tu it thi gia trj can bien cao va ti le thu hdi vdn se tuang ddi cao; neu dau tu nhieu thi gia trj can bien thap va ti le thu hdi vdn se tuang ddi thap Vay phai chang la dau tu cho giao due cda VN la rat cao, nen theo quy luat lpi ich can bien giam dan, ti le thu hdi vdn cho giao due cua VN da thap ban? Bai viet giai thich nguyen nhan cda hien tupng dau tu cho giao due cua VN khdng tuan theo quy luat lpi ich can bien giam dan, cu the la giai thich nguyen nhan ti le thu hdi vdn dau tu cho giao due cua VN khdng cao nhu li thuyet da chi iing vdi muc dp dau tu thap Mat khac, bai viet ciing danh gia mdc dp hpp li cda hpc phi hien hanh va gai y Id trinh tang hpc phi phu hop cho mdt so nhom nganh hpc Cd sd li thuyet va phu'dng phap nghien cuXi 2.1 Chi phi vd lai ich ctia gido due Giao due gdp phan xay dyng mdt lyc luong lao ddng ed tay nghe, cd kha nang thich ung vdi the gidi day bien ddng, cd tam nhin va tu' sang tao Gidng nhu eac nganh djch vu khac, giao due phat sinh chi phi va lpi ich Chi phi bao gdm chi phi tryc tiep va chi phi co hpi Chi phi tryc tiep la chi phi cho cac nguon lyc co the nhin thiy dupc ma xa hdi gianh cho giao due, nhu luong giao vien, giang dudng, van phdng cac co sd dao tao, giao trinh, sach giao khoa, van phong phim v.v Chi phi co hdi la khoan thu nhap bj mat ngudi hpc khdng tham gia dupc boat dpng san *PGS TS Truang Dai hoc Quoc gia Ha Npi 16 NGHIEN CUU & TRAO DOI "TS., Trung tarr •• ^ r - ^ • • " ' • - J ^ ^ - ' » " M o h;4m Email: nhapx@V' P H A T TRIEN KINH TE So 264, Thdng MUdI ndm 2012 xuat Schultz (1960) nhan djnh chi phi ca hdi ddi vdi giao due dai hpc cao hon chi phi tryc tiSp tren 50% Tat nhien, chi phi gian tiep vdi bac dao tao thap, vi du nhu tieu hpc, la rat thap, vi hpc sinh ti§u hpc khdng lao dpng, chi giup dd viec nha vdi gia trj ddng gdp khdng dang ke Giao due dem lai loi ich ca nhan va lpi ich xa hpi Ve lpi ich ca nhan, trudc het phai ke tdi lpi ich kinh te, dd la miic thu nhap cao han ma ngudi lao dpng dupe dao tao cd dupc Nhtmg lai ich ca nhan khdng chi dung d mat kinh te Ngudi dupc dao tao se thay ty tin ban cupc sdng Thdng qua hpc tap, ngudi cd kha nang dpc, viet, cd kha nang hda nhap vao cpng ddng, qua dd them yeu cupc song, sdng hanh phuc ban Ve mat nay, can lam rd, ban than giao due khdng chi lam ngudi hanh phuc hon, ma giao dye giup ngudi tim thay hanh phuc cda chinh minh Lpi ich xa hdi cua giao due bao gdm lpi ich ca nhan va nhiing ngoai ung tich cyc ma giao due dem lai cho nhiing ngudi khdng tryc tiep tham gia hpc tap Vi dy, giao due cd tinh lien ket giiia cac the he Tre em hpc dupc rat nhieu dieu quy gia tai gia dinh neu bo me la ngudi cd dao tao Chinh vi li nay, mpt ngudi cd the khdng tham gia hoat ddng san xuat, nhung khoan chi phi cho giao due ddi vdi ngudi mpt chiing myc nao dd van cd the nhin nhan la mdt khoan diu tu, vi ngudi dd se cd nhiing tac dpng tot tdi thi he ti6p theo gia dinh Cdn rit nhiSu vi du khac vS Ipi ich xa hdi cua giao due, mac du rit khd djnh lupng: Giao due lam giam ti le tpi pham xa hpi, qua dd giam chi phi xa hpi; giao due lam tang hieu qua cac chiln djch thong tin, truyin thdng vi ngudi de dang hieu han cac thdng diep v.v Do Ipi ich cua giao due la rit ldn, kha nang chi tra ca nhan cdn ban chi, tit ca cac nudc dlu gianh ti le ngan sach tuong ddi ldn cho giao due 2.2 Ti le thu hdi vdn ddu tu cho gido due dai hgc tai VN (ROE) Lpi ich va chi phi cda giao due da dupc neu, nhung lupng hda chinh xac chung de qua dd tinh chinh xac ti le thu hdi vdn diu tu cho giao due la viec rit khd, vi: (i) Cd qua nhieu loai chi phi lien quan; cac ca sd dao tao chi nhu luang giao vien, diu tu giang dudng, trang thilt bi v.v.; mdt sd khac ca nhan chi nhu tien mua sach vd, van phdng pham, chi phi di lai v.v Dac biet, rit khd danh gia chi phi CO hpi, nd khac giiia cac ca nhan, giiia tling thdi diem cu the cua mdi ca nhan; (ii) tren thyc te, qua khd de tinh toan dupc lpi ich ca nhan ve mat kinh te cua giao due vi sau hpc xong, ngudi hpc sir dung kien thiic hpc dupc cho ca phan cupc ddi cdn lai, la mpt khoang thdi gian qua dai Cac lpi ich ca nhan phi kinh te khac (lam cho ngudi thay hanh phuc ban) va cac ngoai iing tich cyc cua giao due, cho tdi chua cd phuang phap nao de lupng hda De khac phuc nhiing khd khan ndi tren, cac nha kinh te ngam dinh ti le thu hdi vdn giao due la ti le % thu nhap hang nam se tang len neu mdt ngudi tham gia hpc them I nam bpc Tuang ty nhu vay, ti le thu hdi vdn giao due ddi vdi timg cap hpc (vi du tieu hpc, trung hpc, day nghe hay dai hpc) la ti le % thu nhap hang nam se tang len neu mpt ngudi tham gia cap bpc dd Ve mat toan hpc, ti le thu hdi vdn dau tu cho giao due dupc bieu thi bdi gia trj he sd J] phuang trinh/cdng thuc (1) Mincer (1974) de xuat, theo dd se hoi quy logaritb cua miic luong (W) theo sd nam di hpc S va sd nam kinh nghiem E cua luc lupng lao dpng Neu bien ddi bien S cac bien gia ung vdi cac cap bpc, se tinh dupe ti le thu hdi vdn diu tu' cho cac cap hpc dd tu he sd cua bien gia tuong ling Ln{w) = a + /3S + r,E + y^E-+e (1) Mae du dupc ngam dinh nhu tren, ti le thu hdi vdn diu tu giao due van giii dupc nhiing dac tinh cdt Idi nhit cda mdt chi tieu kinh te va vi vay vin dupc su dung rdng rai nghien ciiu khoa hpc cung nhu cdng tac hoach dinh chinh sach: (i) ti le thu hdi vdn cao ham y neu dupc hpc tap, sau tot nghiep di lam, thu nhap cua ngudi di hpc se dupc nang len nhieu va ngupc lai; (ii) vdi cung sd nam di hpc, neu dau tu tryc tiep cho giao due (giao vien, giang dudng, trang thiet bi, v.v ) cao lam tang chit lupng dao tao, tang thu nhap cda ngudi hpc sau tdt nghiep di lam, thi ti le thu hdi vdn se cao NGHICN ciiu & TRAO cdi 17 PHAT TRIEN KINH TE So 264, T h a n g MUdi n d m 2012 2.3 Chi phi ddo tgo thuc te vd chi phi ddo tgo hapli Khai niem chi phi dao tao thyc te va chi phi dao tao hpp li giao due dai hpc dupc de cap tai Thang & cpng sy (2012) Theo dd, chi phi dao tao thyc te la chi phi binh quan ma cac co sd dao tao thyc te dang chi tra cho mdi sinh vien mdi nam hpc; chi phi dao tao hop li la chi phi binh quan ma cac ca sd dao tao le phai chi cho mdi sinh vien mdi nam hpc, neu mudn dat dupc mdt miic chat luong dao tao tmng binh tryc chat lupng dao tao dai hpc (Hinh 1) T Z Chat lu'p'ng ChSt lu'p'ng giao Chat li^p'ng giao giao due d^i due trung binh due kha cua the hQc cua VN ciia the giai giii Hinh True chat lu'dng dao tao dai hoc Nguon: Thing & cpng sy (2012) Thang & cdng sy (2012), tinh toan chi phi dao tao thyc te ddi vdi tung nhdm nganh dao tao dai hpc thdng qua viec khao sat chi phi cac trudng dai hpc cdng cua VN va tinh toan chi phi dao tao hpp li dua tren phuong phap sau: Thir nhdt, eac tac gia gia dinh coi nganh y duoc cda VN da dat dupc miic chat luong trung binh cua the gidi [I], chi phi dan vj tuong ddi cua nhom nganh d VN la rat cao Mat khac, chat lupng dao tao nganh y dupc VN tuong ddi tdt, sinh vien trudng tuang ddi de tim dupc cdng viec phu hpp, nhieu chuyen gia y dupc VN da dupe cac nudc dang phat trien mdi sang lam viec I v.v, Chat lu'p'ng Thir hai, gia su d cac nudc phat trien nhu My, Anh va Uc, cua the gioi chi phi dao tao cac nhdm nganh deu da d miic hop 11 Dd la vi cac trudng dai bpc d cac nudc cd xu hudng dupc lap lau ddi va sinh vien tdt nghiep cua ho dupe dao tao theo djnh hudng thj trudng Nhu vay giao due cao 3.5 - ^••Mal^rai* ^^^HbogKong "(r* Australia •*^*TfeKas ^l^UK •^""Weliiaiii 2.5 - 1.5 ^^~^ ^ 0.5 - , Congngheva ky thuat KhoahpctlF iLbien Khoahocxa hoi " Sirpbamva Quan ly giao Ndngnghi%i, Lim nghiep due TT YdlFO'c Kinhteva Luat Nghethoat vaThUysan I Hinh Ti le chi phi dao tao dai hpc giu'a cac nhom nganh cua VN va mot so n'en kinh te khac Ngudn: Thing & cpng sy, 2012 18 NGHIDN CI>U & TRAO B | P H A T TRIEN KINH TE So 264, T h d n g MUcii n a m 2012 cd the tinh dupc ti le chi phi hpp li cho moi nhdm nganh (dupe dinh nghia la ti le giua chi phi dan vj dao tao sinh vien thupc nhdm nganh dd so vdi chi phi dan vi dao tao sinh vien y dupe) Tilp theo nghien cun gia dinh ti le chi phi hop Ii cua VN la miic trung binh cac ti le chi phi hprp Ii ctia My, Anh vaUc Vdi cac gia dinh tren, chi phi dao tao hop Ii vdi moi nhdm nganh cu the se la tich so cua chi phi dao tao thyc te cua nhdm nganh y dupc va ti le chi phi hpp li ciia nhdm nganh dd 2.4 Phuang phdp nghien cdu Nghien eim ap dung ca phuang phap dinh tinh va dinh lupng Phuong phap djnh tinh ap dung de phan tich ti le thu hdi vdn dau tu cho giao dye hien tai va giai thich nguyen nhan dau tu cho giao due tai VN khdng tuan thu quy luat lpi ich can bien giam dan Phuang phap djnh lupng, cu the la phuang phap so sanh giira chi phi dao tao thyc te vdi chi phi dao tao hop li, dtipc ap dyng de danh gia miic hpc phi quy dinh Nghi djnh 49/2010/NDCP va xay dyng Id trinh cai each bpc phi cho tung nhdm nganh nhiing van de sau day mdi la nguyen nhan that sy: (i) Khu vyc nha nudc (Chinh phu va SOE) cua VN tuong ddi ldn, cd sy cao bang chinh sach luang, nen thu nhap cda ngudi cd dao tao cao va cda ngudi cd dao tao thip khdng khac biet nhilu; (ii) Chat lupng giao due cua VN cdn thip, gia tri gia tang giao due tao chua cao, nen ti le thu hdi vdn ciing khdng cao; va (iii) Kinh te thi trudng ciia VN chua thyc sy phat trien, thi trudng lao dpng cdn nhieu nut that nen ngudi dupe dao tao chua dupc su dung dung chuyen mdn, lam giam hieu qua cua diu tu cho giao due Nhu vay, trai ngupc vdi quy luat lpi nhuan giam dan, viec tang hpc phi khdng lam giam ma se lam tang ti le thu hdi vdn dau tu, ndi each khac la tang hieu qua dau tu vao giao due dai hpc 12 10 • U ' e I'^^t^M SI' Nghien ciiu sii dung sd lieu ve ti le thu hdi vdn dau tu cho giao due cda VN Worldbank (1998), ti le thu hdi vdn dau tu cho giao due tai cac nudc khac tren the gidi Psacharopoulos & Patrinos (2002); sd lieu vl chi phi thyc te, chi phi dao tao hop li mpt sinh vien dai hpc Thang & cpng sy (2012); so heu ve hpc phi dai hpc giai doan 2011-2015 Nghi djnh 49/2010/ND-CP 15/5/2010 ciia Chinh phu, Ti le thu ho! vdn dau tu' cho giao due cua VN • Tieu hoc Xnuig hoc Dai hoc Day nghe JB1993H2004| ^^^ ^ _—rdF^"^" , ^-"•""''^^ .^^^'^'"" ^-'-'''^ ^ ^ "-^^ Hoantoan Mlugiaa TiEuhoc Tmng hoc Trong hoc Cao fine, khong di ' Cffsif P*" *l«n« B?i hac Ti le thu hdi von diu tu cho giao due cua VN * -pDl Ho gia dinh • Kinii^'tw Nhan dupe tnnb bay d Hinh Cd the nit mdt sd nhan Kinh lot nha nvefc ->- Kinh te hffp tac xi djnh nhu sau : Hinh Ti le thu h'ol von dau tu" cho giao due tai VN Thir nhdt, so vdi cac nudc dang phat trien (ddn vj o/o) nghien ciiu cda Psacharopoulos & Patrinos (2002), VN cd ti le thu hdi vdn diu tu cho giao due thap han Nguon: Patrinos & Moock (1998); VHLSS 1993, 2004 dupc trich Worldbank (2008) nhilu Thi trudng lao ddng cda VN rat thieu nguon Thic hai, giao dye dai hpc cda VN cd ti le thu hdi nhan lyc cd dao tao va cd tay nghi, dan tdi ban che thu hdt diu tu nudc ngoai Nhu vay, giai thich ti le von cao han d cac cip dao tao thap hem Dieu cd thu hdi vdn cho giao due cda VN thap la dau tu ve phi li vi chi phi dao tao tinh ti le thu hdi vdn vao giao due qua nhilu la khdng thuylt phuc Cd the diu tu cho giao due cdng thiic I chi tinh tdi NGHIDN CCrU & TRAO Ddi 19 P H A T TRIEN KINH TE So 264, Th^ng MUdI ndm 2012 khoan chi phi co hdi, dd la thu nhap bi mat di ngudi lao ddng di hpc Vdi cac cap dao tao thap (nhu tieu hpc, trung hpc va day nghe), chi phi ca hdi la tuang ddi thap nen rd rang ti le thu hdi vdn phai cao Cd le li cd the giai thich dupe hien tuong "phi li" tren tu: khia canh VN la mpt xa hdi bang cap, coi trpng bang dai hpc va tren dai hpc Nhung ngudi chua tdt nghiep dai hpc, du cd bang tieu hpc hay trung hpc chang niia cung bi danh gia thap, dupe chi tra rat thap, dan tdi ti le thu hdi vdn dau tu cho giao dye d cac cap dao tao thap Thit ba, cd sy khac biet dang ke ti le thu hdi vdn dau tu cho giao due giira cac khu vyc khac cda nen kinh te, dac biet la giiia khu 'vyc dau tu nudc ngoai (FDI) va khu vuc hop tac xa Cd the nhan djnh li dan tdi sy khac biet tren: (i) Khu vyc FDI su dung ngudi dupc dao tao hop li ban, dem lai nang suat lao ddng cao hon, nen cd kha nang ehi tra tuong ddi nhieu ban cho nhirng ngudi cd trinh dp; va (ii) Khu vyc FDI tuyen chpn dau vao ki ban, nen mac du cd bang cap nhu nhau, nhung xet binh quan, nhiing ngudi lam cho khdi FDI cd nang lyc lam viec thyc sy eao ban va dupc chi tra cao ban cac khu vyc khac £)anh gia mu'c hoc phi dai hoc quy dinh tai Nghi dinh 49/2010/ND-CP So lieu cda Bang cho thay chi phi dao tao mdt sinh vien dai hoc nhdm nganh kinh te luat la thap nhat nhdm nganh khdng ddi hdi nhieu thiet bi va phdng thi nghiem, yong cd the dao tao vdi quy md lap hpc ldn Nhdm nganh y dupc cd chi phi dao tao cao nhat, gap 3,73 Ian khdi kinh tl, luat, nhdm nganh ddi hdi phdng thi nghiem, thilt bj hd trp va nguyen vat lieu rat dat Chi phi cao tilp theo la nhdm nganh nghe thuat, gap 2,25 lan nhom nganh kinh te, luat, quy md Idp hpc rat nhd, tham chi la sinh vien/1 giang vien va dung cu am nhac, thiet bj bieu dien cung rat dat tien Bang I cho biet miic dp dau tu thyc tl cho giao dye dai hpc cua VN thdi diem nam 2010 cdn thip rit nhieu so vdi muc dp dau tu hpp li de dat dupc miic chat lupng dao tao trang binh cda the gidi Nhom nganh cdng nghiep va kT thuat; ndng nghiep, lam nghiep va thdy san deu dat chua den 50% Chinh phu VN bet sue quan tam tdi giao due Tuy nhien, sd lupng hpc sinh ndi chung va sinh vien dai hpc ndi rieng da va dang tang len nhanh chdng, nen rat khd cd the tang muc dau tu binh quan cho mdi sinh vien tii ngan sach nha nudc Gia djnh la thdi gian tdi Chinh phd tri muc dau tu cho mdi sinh vien tu ngan sach nha nudc nhu thai diem hien tai (nam 2010) va lam phat nhimg nam tdi se rai vao khoang 5%-10%/nam, theo 16 trinh eai each hpc phi giai doan 2011-2015 Nghj dinh 49/2010/ND-CP, chdng ta cd the nhan djnh nhu sau: Mac dd muc hpc phi da va se tang hon gap lan giai doan 2011-2015, nhung van rat Bang Chi phi dao tao thUc te va chi phi dao tao hcfp li tai VN nam 2010 (trieu VND/sinh vien) Chi phi fhipc te Chi phi thirc te tai tru'O'ng thap nhat Chi phi thiFc te tai trycfng cao nhat Chi phi thipc te so vo'i nhom nganh Kinh te va luat Cong nghe va kT thuat 5,5 4,99 6,02 Khoa hpc tir nhien 6,8 4,64 9,01 Nhom nganh Chl phi ho'p li % chi phi thiPC te/chi phi hgp li 1,14 12,2 45,16% 1,41 12,0 56,83% 64,40% Khoa hpc xa hpi va nhan van 5,9 5,23 6,49 1,21 9,1 SLP pham va quan li giao due 6,5 5,73 7,26 1,34 8,3 78,31% 12,9 46,67% Nong nghipp, lam nghiep va thuy san 6,0 4,54 7,51 1,24 Ydu'ac 18,1 11,67 24,51 3,73 18,1 100,00% Kinh te va luat 4,9 4,51 5,18 1,00 7,8 62,18% Nghp thuat 10,9 9,52 12,31 2,25 12,5 87,28% Nguon: Thing & cong si/, 2012 va tinh toan cua cac tac gia 20 NGHIDN CIJU & TRAO OOl P H A T T R I E N KINH TE So 264, Thdng Mu6i ndm 2012 Bang Mu'c dap ijtig nhu cau tai chinh de thiTc hien mu'c chat lu'dng dao tao trung binh cua the gidi l-(oc phi Nhom nganh (Ttieo Nghi dinh 49/2010/ND-CP), dem vi: 1.000 VND Mire dp dap u>ng so vo'i nhu cau (Th&l diem nam'2015, nam cuoi Id trinh cua Nghi dmh 49) Nam hoc Lam phat 2010-2011 2014-2015 5% 6% Cong nghe va kT thuat 310 650 60% 58% Khoa hpc ty nhien 310 650 70% 67% Khoa hpc xa hpi va nhan van 290 550 76% 74% 290 550 55% 53% 7% 8% 9% 56% 54% 52% 50% 65% 63% 60% 58% 71% 68% 66% 63% 51% 49% 47% 46% 10% Su' pham va quan li giao due Nong nghiep, lam nghiep va thuy san Y du'Oc Kinh te va luat 290 550 79% 76% 73% 70% 68% 65% Nghe thuat 310 650 94% 91% 87% 84% 81% 78% 72% 70% 67% 65% 62% 60% Binh quan thu'dng Nguon: Nghi dinh 49/2010/NO-CP, Muc Di§u 12 va tinh toan cua tac gia Bang So nam can thiet de dat mu'c chat lu'dng dao tao trung binh cua the gidi Lam phat Nhom nganh 5% Cong nghe va kT thuat 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 10 11 12 14 15 13 15 15 17 20 24 Khoa hpc tip nhien 10 12 Khoa hpc xa hpi va nhan van 11 13 Su' pham va quan li giao due Nong nghipp, lam nghiep va thuy san 12 16 Y du'Oc Kinh t6 va luat 11 13 15 Nghe thuat 10 12 14 Nguon: Tinh loan cua cac tac gia thap so vdi nhu cau ve mat tai chinh nham hudng tdi muc chat lupng giao due trung binh cda the gidi muc lam phiit thap 5% hpc phi nam 2015 la nam cudi cda Id trinh cai each hpc phi hien tai nidi dap ung dupc binh quan 72% yeu cau Mdc dap ung giam xudng chi cdn binh quan 60% neu lam phat cao 10% Hai nhdm nganh cd muc dap ung rat thap la ndng nghiep, lam nghiep va thdy san vdi 46% va cdng nghe va kT thuat vdi 50% (Bang 2) NIU sau nam 2015 van tiep tuc cai each tang hpc phi theo tdc dp hien hanh cda giai doan 2011- 2015, cu the la 17% va 20% (Bang 4) vdi cac nhdm nganh cu the, se mat nhieu nam de dat dupc trinh dp trung binh cda the gidi Cu the, dieu kien lam phat thap nhat, se mat tu 6-12 nam, cdn dieu kien lam phat cao 10% se mat tdi 14-24 nam tung nhdm nganh Ld trinh la dai so vdi muc tieu dat la dam bao tai ehinh de nang cao chat lupng dao tao eac nhdm nganh, dat muc chat lupng dao tao nhdm nganh y dupe tai thdi diem nam 2010 (tuc la muc chat lupng trang binh cda the gidi) NGHIEN cdu & TRAO OPi 21 PHAT TRIEN KINH TE So , T h a n g MUdi n a m 2012 Bang Tdc tang hpc phi can thiet de dat muc tieu mu'c chat lu'dng trung binh the gidi vao nam hoc 2014-2015 Lam phat 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Nghj djnh 49 Cong nghe va kT thuat 41% 43% 45% 46% 48% 49% 20% Khoa hpc tu' nhien 37% 39% 40% 42% 44% 45% 20% 29% 31% 33% 34% 36% 37% 17% 44% 46% 48% 49% 51% 53% 17% Kinh te va l u | t 27% 28% 30% 31% 33% 34% 17% Nghe thuat 24% 27% 29% 31% 33% 36% 20% Trung binh 34% 36% 37% 39% 41% 43% 19% Nhom nganh Khoa hpc xa hpi va nhan van Su" pham va quan li giao due Nong nghiep, lam nghiep va thuy san Y du-pc Ngudn: Nghj djnh 49/2010/ND-CP, Myc Dieu 12 va tfnh toan cua tac gia Bang De xuat lo trinh cai each hoc phi sau nSm 2015 Oe xuat cua nghien ci>u Theo Nghj djnh 49 Giai doan 2011-2015 Giai doan 2016-2020 (1 OOOVND/hpc vien/thang) (1 OOOVND/hpc vien/thang) Nam hpc Nam hpc Nhom nganh 20102011 2011 2012 2012 -2013 2013 -2014 2014 -2015 20152016 20162017 20172018 20182019 20192020 % tang hang Cong nghe va kT thu$t 310 395 480 565 650 854 1.121 1.472 1.934 2.539 31% Khoa hpc ti/ nhien 310 395 480 565 650 826 1.048 1.331 1.691 2.148 27% Khoa hpc xa hpi va nhan van 290 355 420 485 550 680 842 1.041 1.288 1.593 24% 290 355 420 485 550 672 821 1.004 1.227 2.537 22% 290 355 420 485 550 674 825 1.011 1.239 1.517 23% 1.073 1.216 13% 22% Su" phgm va quan If giao due Nong nghiep, 'am nghiep va thuy san Ydu'pc Kinh te va tugt Nghe thuat 310 395 480 565 650 737 835 947 Nam hpc Nong nghi$p, lam ngh iep va thuy san, giai do^n nam tiep theo (2021-2025) 20202021 20212022 20222023 20232024 20242025 3.100 3.788 4.629 5.657 6.914 Ngudn: Nghj djnh 49/2010/ND-CP, Muc Dieu 12 va tinh toan cua cac tac gia 22 NGHIDN Cl/U & TRAO DPl P H A T T R I E N KINH TE So 264, Thang MUdi nSm 2012 - Gia su VN mudn dat dupc muc chat lupng dao tao trang binh cua the gidi vao nam cudi cua Id trinh cai each hpc phi 2011-2015, tbi muc dp hpc phi phai tang hang nam rit cao Cy thi, dilu kien lam phat thap 5% bpc phi cin tang trang binh 34%, ttong dieu kien lam phat cao 10% hpc phi cin tang trang binh 43%, so vdi miic tang 19% dupc tinh toan tu Nghj djnh 49/2010/ND-CP Lo trinh cai each hoc phi hdp li Tiep bic gia djnh nhiJng nam tdi Nha nudc giii nguyen raiic dau tu cho moi hpc vien tir ngan sach nha nude nhu tai thdi dilm nam,2010 Vdi gia djnh an toan nhit vl miic Iam phat la 10% hang nam Bang va gpi y nen cai each hpc phi nhdm nganh ndng nghiep, lam nghiep va thdy san khoang 15 nam va cac nhdm nganh khac khoang 10 nam, vdi muc phi ap dyng cho tdng nam hpc (Bang 5) Ld trinh khdng qua dai (14-24 nam Bang 4), nhung khdng qua ngan vi ngan qua se gay sue ep tang hpc phi qua ldn ddi vdi ngudi dan Thyc hien Id trinh 10 nam nhu tren, cac nhdm nganh, tru nhdm nganh ndng nghiep, lam nghiep va thuy san, se dam bao (ve mat tai chinh) thyc hien muc chat lupng trang binli cda the gidi vao nam hpc 2019-2020 Giai doan 2011-2015 thyc hien theo quy djnh hien hanh cda Nghj djnh 49/2010/ND-CP vdi muc tang hang nam 17% va 20%, giai doan nam tiep theo 2016-2020 thyc hien mdc tang cao hon, tu 23%-31% tdy tung nhdm nganh Rieng nhdm nganh nghe thuat giai doan 2016-2020 chi can tang hpc phi d muc 13% la dat yeu ciu vi phan dau tu' cho nhdm nganh tu ngan sach nha nudc bien tu'ong ddi ldn va gia djnh nha nudc tiep tuc dau ta' vdi ti le nhu hien tai Nhdm nganh ndng nghiep, lam nghiep va thdy san, thyc hien Id trinh cai each hpc phi 15 nam, theo ddgiai doan 2011-2015 thyc bien theo quy djnh hien hanh cda Nghj dinh 49/2010/ND-CP vdi muc tang hang nam 17%, giai doan 10 nam tiep theo 20162025 thyc hien muc tang cao ban la 22% Lu'u y, cac muc tang hpc phi neu tren tinh theo ti le phan tram khdng phai la qua ldn, bdi canh gia thilt lam phat 10% Tuy nhien, dd la muc tang lien tuc luy kl thdi gian dai nen tat yeu se la mdt ganh nang dang ke cho nhan dan vao nhiing nam cudi Mae du vay, khdng cd sy lua chpn khac neu chdng ta coi trpng va nghiem tuc dat muc tieu cai thien chat lupng giao due Dilm dang chd y, theo Nghj djnh 49/2010/CPND cda Chinh phd, miic hpc phi cua nhdm nganh y dupc tang rat nhilu, trang binh hang nam 24% giai doan 2011-2015 Nhu nhan djnh cda nghien cuu nay, nhdm nganh y dupc VN da dat dupe muc chit lupng trang binh cda the gidi Vdi viec tang hpc phi nhu tren, Chinh phd ed thi dat dupc myc tieu la tiep tue nang cao ban nua chat lupng dao tao va giam bdt phan bao cap ehi phi tir ngan sach nha nudc cho nhdm nganh dao tao Ket luan Qua qua trinh phan tich tren, cd the giai thich dupc ti le thu hdi vdn dau ta cho giao dye dai hpc cda VN thap khdng phai vi muc dp dau tu qua nhieu, ma vi dau ta qua thap, dan tdi chat lupng giao due thap, ddng gdp cho tang trudng kinh te thap va ket qua cudi cung la ti le thu bdi vdn dau tu thap Ngoai nghien ciru ciing nban,^dinh hai li khac dan tdi ti le thu hdi vdn dau ta cho giao dye dai hpc thap la sy cao bang ehinh sach luong cua khu vyc nha nudc va viec su dung lao dpng cdn chua dung vdi chuyen mdn Tang dau ta' se lam tang ti le thu hdi vdn vdn dau ta', ndi each khac la tang hieu qua cda giao dye dai hpc Mat khac, ngoai nhdm nganh y dupc, hien tai (thdi diem 2010) tat ca nhdm nganh dao tao dai hpc khac cda VN cdn dupe dau ta' rat it Mac du VN cd Id trinh tang bpc phi mdt sd nhdm nganh trang binh 17% va mdt sd nhdm nganh khac trang binh 20% hang nam giai doan 2010-2015, tay nhien din bet giai doan nay, muc bpc phi cung mdi chi dap ung dupc khoang 2/3 so vdi nhu eau Thdng qua phuong phap so sanh giua chi phi dao tao thyc tl va chi phi dao tao hpp li, nghien cdn chi nlu mudn dat muc chat lupng trang binh cda thi gidi vao nam 2015 thi muc hpc phi phai tang rat manh hang nam, trang binh vao khoang 34%^3% so vdi mdc tang trang binh 19% eua hpc phi quy djnh cho giai doan 2011-2015 Mat khac, neu sau nam 2015 tilp tuc cai each bpc phi vdi tdc dp tang eidng giai doan 2011-2015, thi phai mat 14-24 nam NGHIEN c u u & TRAO DPi 23 PHAT TRIEN KINH TE So 264, Thang MUdi nim 2012 (ke til nam 2010) giao due dai hpc VN mdi dat dupc myc tieu miic chat lupng trang binh cda the gidi Nghien eim da de xuat Id trinh hop li cai each hpc phi dai hpc nham tiep can vdi muc chat lupng dao tao trang binh cua the gidi nhung phu hpp vdi dieu kien kinh te xa hdi cda dat nudc Theo dd nhdm nganh ndng nghiep, lam nghiep va thdy san nen cai each theo Id trinh cham 15 nam, vdi miic tang hpc phi hang nam sau nam 2015 la 22%; cae nliom nganh cdn lai nen cai each theo Id trinh nhanh han, 10 nam, vdi miic tang hpc phi hang nam sau niim 2015 la 13% ddi vdi nhdm nganh nghe thuat va ni 22%-31% ddi vdi cac nhdm nganh cdn laiB CHU THICH [1] Thing & cong sy (2012) phan loai chat lu'p'ng dao tao cua the gidi cap thap, trung binh, cao va gia djnh nganh y dupc VN dat mi>c chat lu'p'ng thap cua gidi Vdi nhOng gi nganh y du-pc VN da dat dupc, tac gia cho rang, se la hpp li hon n l u phan loai chat lupng dao tao the gidi c i p trung binh, kha, cao va gia dinh nganh y du'Oc VN da dat du-pc mifc trung binh cua the gidi Cac nhom nganh dao tao dai hpc khac cua VN hudng tdi a?t mdc chat lu'png trung binh cua the gidi T A I LIEU THAM KHAO Nghj djnh so 49/2010/CP-CP 15/5/2010 cua Chinh phu quy dinh ve mien, giam hoc phi, ho trp chi phi hpc tap va ca che thu, su dung hpc phi doi vdi cac co sd giac due thupc he thong giao due quoc dan tif nam hpc 20102011 den nam hpc 2014-2015 Psacharopoulos George & Patrinos H A (2002), Returns to Investment in Education: A Further Update, World Bank Policy Research, Worl