NGHIEN CIJU- TRAO BOI VE CAC NGUON LlUC PHAT TRIEN VA NHONG Gdi Y D I v f t VIET NAM PGS, TS PHAM THANH KHIET* N gudn lure (Resource) la toan bd nhiing ye'u td va ngoai nube da, dang va se tham gia vao qua trinh thflc day, phat trien, cai bien xa hpi ciia mdt qudc gia, Ngudn lure phat trien kinh tela td'ng the ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien, tai san qud'c gia, ngudn nhan lure va cac ye'u td phi vat the bao gdm ca va ngoai nirdc ed kha nang khai thae, sfl dung nham thflc day qua trinh phat trie'n Mnh te - xa hdi, Tiiy vao cich tie'p can khic ngum ta phan loai ngudn lure khae nhau, nhung nhin chung cd hai loai: thflnhat, theo dac trung kinh te-xa hdi, ngudn lure kinh te'bao gdm tai nguyen thien nhien, vd'n, lao dpng, khoa hpc - cdng nghe vi ngudn lire phi kinh te bao gdm the che chi'nh tri, dudng ldi, ea ehe chi'nh saeh, dae die'm van hda, dan tdc; thfl hai, theo khu vurc hanh ehinh qud'c gia, cd ngudn lure nudc va ngudn lure nude ngoai Bai vie't neu len mdt sd quan die'm sfl dung cic ngudn lire kinh te qua trinh phat trie'n kinh te - xa hdi qua cac giai doan, tfl dd ed mdt sd goi y ddi vdi nen kinh te Viet Nam Mdt sd quan diem ve su dung cac ngudn luc kinhte - Trudng phdi kinh teed dien Trong lieh sfl, Mnh te cMnh tri tu san cd dien dm vao niira cud'i the'ky XVII ehu nghia trpng thutmg tan ra, cd vai trd quan trpng la xay dung co sd ly Man eho sir dm, phit trien cua chu nghia tu ban, db de cap den cac nguon lure phat trie'n kinh tela mdt ddng gdp to ldn WilHam Sir Petty (1623 -1687) nha kinh tehpe ngubi Anh rat coi trpng ddngtien,cu the la vang, bae, nd la cfla cai cfla qud'c gia Thieu tien thi nen kinh te bi dinh tre, cflng nhu eon ngum thie'u mau thi co the ngflng hoat dpng Mud'n gia tang tien, tang cfla cai, phai tao nhflng loai san pham cd the thu hut dutrc * Hoc vien Chfnh tri - Hanh chi'nh khu vuc III 41 NGfflEN cuu-TRAO BOI tien d nudc ngoai vao Con dubng lam tangtien,tang ngirdi Con ngutritiubehe't phai cb eii an, mac, d, cfla cai la phat trie'n thuang mai, dac biet la ngoai rdi mdi tinh denrieclam chinh tri, thutmg Ve lao ddng vi dat dai, Wilham Petty cd eau Lao ddng la nhan td kinh te, ye'u td diu vao de ndi nd'itie'ng:lao dpng la eha, dat dai la me de tao tao san pham diu ra, Ngudn lao dpng la nhan td cua cai Ong la ngudi dau tien neu len khai niem "dia quye't dinh viec khai thae, sfl dung, tai tao va td chenh lech" va ke't Man rang, vi trf khac cfla phit trie'n cac ngudn lure khae, C, Mac ehi rb, lao da't dai dd'i vdi thi trubng va dp mau md khac dpng sd'ng gan vdi ngubi lao ddng, ngubi lao dpng cfla da't dai lam cho nang suat lao ddng ndng nghiep cang dupe dao tao thi cang nang cao trinh dp chuyen khac Do qua nhan manh den lao ddng va da't mdn va nang lire edng tac, Cbn lao dpng qua khfl la dai nen William Petty eho rang, mpi cfla cai dupe tao lao dpng da ke't tinh san pham, chang han nhu bdi hai miu sd tur nhien la da't dai va lao ddng va may mbc thie't bi, bng gpi la lao ddng che't, Trong qua lay dd lam thube gia tri eho ta't ea sin pham khac, trinh sin xua't, nhb cd lao ddng sd'ng ma lao dpng dieu khdng dflng vbi ly Man ve gia tri Tuy nMen, chet sd'ng lai, nd dupe cai tfl hoan sinh va chuyen d vao the ky XVII, nen Mnh te cbn chu ye'u la ndng mpt phan gia tri cua minh vao san pham mdi (bang nghiep thi chflng ta cung cd the hieu dupe dieu v+m), C, Mac chi rb, chu nghia tuban thi sflc Adam Smith (1723 -1790) va Davit Ricardo (1772 lao ddng cfla giai cap cdng nhan lam thue vfla tao -1823) deu nha'n manh den cic nhan tdlam gia tang cfla cai de nudi sd'ng minh, vfla tao gia tri thang du cho giai cap tu san cfla cai la da't dai, lao ddng, vd'n Trong cudn "Tim Meu ve ban chit va ngudn gd'c cfla Dd'i vdi ky thuat cdng nghe, C Mac nhan manh, cfla cai cfla cac nude" nam 1776, Adam Smith riet: day la nhan td quye't dinh den nang sua't lao dpng, "Lao ddng hang nam cfla mdi nude la ngudn ban dau tie'n bd khoa hpc - edng nghe se lam gia tang eua cai cung cap cho nude db ta't ca nhflng thfl can thiet va gap bpi phin so vdi cac phuongtientrube dd, Khoa hpc tien nghi cho cude sd'ng ma nudc dd dflng cho mdi nam".- cdng nghe phat trie'n se trd lue lupng san xuat Ong cho rang lao ddng, nha't la ky nang va tai kheo leo truetieplam gia tang cua cai xa hdi, den mdt Me nao cua lao ddng la dieu Men diu tien tao cfla cai-^ dd viec lao ddng true tie'p, nang nhpe cua ngubi lao Davit Ricardo eung de cao vai trd eua lao dpng va ddng se dupe thay the bang viec to chflc quan ly gian dat dai viec tao cua cii nhung dng cung cM tiep, ngutri sfl dung nang lure trf tue nhieu ban la sir han che cfla dat dai Theo dng, san xuat ndng nang lure co bap Kinh te phat trien, khoa hpe - cdng nghiep cd quy Mat da't dai mau md cang giam, nghe cang phat trie'n thi nhu ciu ve vd'n dau tur dan de'n nang sua't lao ddng ndng nghiep cflng cb xu cang ldn de dd'i mdi ky thuat ebng nghe, vi vay, viec hubng giam din, dd'i vdi nen ndng nghiep tur cung tur tie't Mem, tfch My vd'n la bien phap de tai sin xuat cap thi nang suit lao ddng can bien bang khdng, Dd la md rdng cua nen Mnh te gidi han cfla dat dai tang trudng kinh te'^, Tuy - Quan diem cua trudng phdi kinh tetdn cddien nhien, quy luat nang sua't giam dan ehi dflng Cac nha Mnh tehpe tan co dien deu thdng nhat ve nen ndng nghiep san xua't nhd, tur eung tur cap cac ngudn luc phat trie'n nhu trubng phai eo dien nhung - Quan diem cda Cdc Mdc cd bd sung them Ne'u nhu trubng phai co dien xac Cac Mac (1818 -1883) nha ly Man thien tai cfla dinhrieesfl dung cac yeu td ngudn lue cho tang tiumig ehu nghia cpng san khoa hpe Ve cac ngudn lure phat phai tang theo mdt ty le tuong ung nhat dinh, tM cie trie'n, C, Mae vfla phe phin vira ke thira ed chpn lpc cac nha Mnh tehpe tan cd dien cho rang khdng nhat tMet ly thuye't kinh te trudc dd ddng thbi bo sung, phat phai nhuvay ma timg giai doan, tfly vao dieu trie'n, Cie ngudn lure phat trie'n kinh te'bao gdm tai Men ttmg nganh, linh virc cb the tang, giam cac ngudn nguyen thien nhien, lao ddng, vd'n,tie'nbp ky thuat, lure khac phfl hpp, cd hieu qua Cd the minh hpa Trong dd dng ehi rd, da't dai la dieu Men tur nhien bang sa ddi khdng the thieu dutrc cho san xuat, dm sd'ng, dae biet World Bank: Cua cii cua cac qudc gia a dau?, Doludngcua la tao nguyen heu eho cdng nghiep ehe Men, luong cii the'ky XXI, Nxb CTQG, H, 2008, tn 20 thuc, thuc pham bao dam cho nhu ciu thie't ye'u cfla Lich sii tutudng kinh te, Nxb Khoa hgc va Ky thuat H, 1992 42 NGHIEN c u u - TRAO BOI So d d i K(tyd) 60 40 30 20 Sa dd cho thiy, de tang gap ddi san lupng eua mpt nha may, trutmg phai co dien se tang ca vd'n va lao dpng tuongflngtfl A de'n B Cic nha kinh te hpe tan CO dien ed the chpn C dau tuky thuat trung binh, vdn ft nhung sfl dung dupc nhieu lao ddng, hoac cd the chpn D diu tur edng nghe eao, vd'n nhieu va giam lao dpng sd'ng Cac phutmg an lua chpn ay deu thue Men dupc muctieutang san lupng gap ddi Tfl dd, cae nha kinh tehpe tan co dien dua hai khai niem: "phat trien kinh tetheo chieu sau" la gia tang sd lupng vd'n eho mdt don vi lao ddng san xua't; "phit trie'n Mnh tetheo cMeu rdng" la sir gia tang vd'n phfl hpp vdi gia tang sdluong lao dpng ^ - Quan diem eua P.A Samuelson P,A, Samuelson cd khai niem "dau vao", "dau ra", Dau vao la cic hang hda dieh vu dupe eae hang sfl dung qua trinh san xuat, Mdt nen kinh te sfl dung cdng nghe san cb cfla minh de ke't hop eae yeu tddau vao nham san xuat cac dau ra, Diu la cae hang hda va dieh vu hiiu dung khac nhau, dd la ke't qua cua qua trinh san xua't Mdt ten gpi khac cua dau vao la cac yeu td san xuat Tfl dd, dng xac dinh tdng mflc cung cua nen kinh te dupc tao bdi cac ye'u td diu vao cfla qua trinh san xua't la tai nguyen thien nhien, lao ddng, vd'n, khoa hpe - cdng nghe Y = f (R,L,K,T), dd Y la sin lupng diu R la tai nguyen thien nhien, L la lao ddng, K la vd'n, T la khoa hpc - edng nghe, Trong qua trinh khai thae, sfl dung cac ngudn lire, P, A, Samuelson da dua khai niem "dirong gidi han kha nang sin xuat" Cac xa hdi, cae qud'c gia khdng the ed mpi thfl ma hp mud'n, bi rang budc bdi cae ngudn lure va cdng nghe Men ed Do dd, eae nirac phai tinh toan de gianh bao nhieu ngudn lure cho linh vurc niy, bao nhieu cho linh vue khac "Dubng gidi han kha nang san xua't md ta mflc san xua't td'i da ma mdt nen Mnh te ed the dat dupc vdi sdMpng dau vao va Men thflc cdng nghe sin cd, nd cho bie't cic lira chpn khac ed the ed dd'i vdi xa hdi"'* - Brandley R Schiller cho rang, nhflng ngudn lire dflng de san xua't hang hda dieh vu dutrc gpi la cac yeu td san xua't, Cd bd'n yeu td sin xua't co ban: da't dm, lao dpng, vd'n, nang lue Mnh doanh ScMller khdng gpi la khoa hpe - edng nghe ma gpi la nang lure Mnh doanh Theo bng, nang lure kinh doanh la viee ke't hpp nhflng ngudn lure de san xua't sin pham Ong neu len khai niem "khan hie'm" la sir mat can dd'i giiia nhu cau cfla chung ta va nhiing ngudn lue san cd Do dd Giao trinh Kinh te hgc phat trien, Trudng Bai hgc Kinh te' Qud'c dan, Nxb Thd'ng ke, H, 1997 Kinh tehoc, t 1, Tai bin lan thd nhat, Nxb Thdng ke, 2002, tr 38 43 NGHIEN c u u - TRAO BOI bude eon ngubi phii ed nhflng lura chpn kinh te, sfl dung ngudn lure nao, san xuat cai gi la phai tinh toan^ - Ngan hang the gidi (WB) Tren co sd nghien cflu gin 120 nube giai doan thuc Men muctieuthien men ky, WB tap hop lai eudn sach: "Cua cai cfla cae qud'c gia d dau? Do lubng cua cai the ky XXI" ke't Man: Ciia eii ciia cae qud'c gia khdng phii chu yeu cic ngudn lure vit chat tao nhu tai nguyen, vd'n, lao ddng ndi ehung ma phan ldn ngudn vdn vd hinh tao ra, Vdn vd hinh bao gdm nhiing ky nang, bf quye't ciia lure lupng lao ddng, vbn xa hpi, sirtintudng cua nhung ngutri cung mdt xa hdi lam viec vi muc dfch chung, Ke't qua ngMen cflu eho rang, vd'n vd hinh phan ldn nhat tdng gii tri ciia cai, bao gdm ngudn Mc eon ngubi, quan ly va cae nhan tdkhae, la cae nhan td khd xae dinh dupc gia tri thirc, Sau so sanh sd heu thd'ng ke cfla cae nhdm nude, WB ket Man: Vd'n vd hinh tao nen 80% td'ng eiia cai cua cic nudc cd thu nhap cao, chiem ty trpng rat thip hoac bang khdng d cic nudc thu nhap tha'p, trung binh, Cic nube thu nhap thap phu thupe nhieu vao tai nguyen tur nhien, ty trpng vd'n tur nhien ldn hon ty trpng vd'n san xuat, Nhin chung, vd'n vd hinh cb phin trdi hon cua cai eua cac nude vdi ty trpng tang len theo mflc thu nhap, Viee sfl dung kem hieu qua cac tai san vd hinh va tai san sin xuat hiu het cic nen kinh te phu thupe vao tai nguyen dan den hau qua bat thuang la ty trpng vd'n vd hinh am d nhiing nutrc nay^, - William Easterley, nha kinh te hpe ngum My, chuyen nghien cflu tang trudng kinh te va vien trp nudc ngoii da rut nhiing ket Man can phai tham khao Qua khao sat thure te d nhieu nirdc, nhat la cac nude ngheo, bng vie't cudn sach "Truytimcan nguyen tang trudng" Theo dng, tang trudng vi phat trien kinh te khdng phai chu ye'u cae ngudn lure kinh te nhur cae nha kinh te hpc trudc day da de cap ma chu yeu la tri thflc va ddng ea eua ngurbi nhiing nube giau ed ve tai nguyen tMen nhien nhung thie'u tri thflc de khai thae va sfl dung, cflng vdi ddng co khdng dung thi khdng the ed tang trudng vi phat trien kinh te Nhieu nude nhan vd'n vien trp kha ldn nhung khdng bie't each td chfle quan If sfl dung cflng vdi ddng ea cfla nhan dan va chinh phu khdng rd nen lang phf, ke'm hieu qua Ong ket Man: "Dau tu vd'n hiiu hinh khdng phai 44 la chia khda nhat eho tang trurdng Diu tu true tie'p vao tri thflc rat quan trpng Khi xa hdi cang cb nhieu 5' tubng hieu qua, mdi mpt y tudng bo sung lai ddng gdp cang nhieu san lupng tang them Neu diu tuvao tri thflc thi cd the lan truyen tdi ta't ca mpi ngum thi tri thflc mbi se lam tang nang suat eua ta't ei cac tri thflc va may mdc san cd toan bd nen kinh te"'' Nhflng quan diem kinh te qua cac thai ky hau het deu cd die'm chung la, cac ngudn lire kinh te nhu tai nguyen thien nhien, lao dpng, vd'n, khoa hpe edng nghe la cae nhan td sin xua't, cac yeu td dau vao ed vai trb quan trpng cho viec tang trudng va phit trie'n kinh te Tuy nhien, mdi thdi ky khac nhau, tfly vao trinh dp phat trie'n kinh te - xa hdi eua mdi nudc ma viee khai thae, sfl dung cac ngudn lire cflng khdng gid'ng Vao the'ky XVII - XVIII, nen san xua't edn tur nhien, khoa hpe - edng nghe chua phat trien thi lao dpng, da't dai la ye'u td dau tien tao eua cai eho xa hpi Trong thdi ky san xua't cdng nghiep, ngudi ta nha'n manh de'n vai trb eua vd'n va ky thuat, khdng ed vd'n thi khdng the cd may mdc thiet bi, khdng the md rdng quy md san xua't Trong thai dai nay, mpt sd nude da chuyen sang nen kinh te'tri thflc thi ngudi ta nhan manh den cdng nghe cao, ham lupng chit xim, ngudn nhan lure chat lupng cao nhflng thai ky trurbe, cac ngudn lure vat chat hiru hinh li rat quan trpng, ngudi ta lai coi trpng ngudn vd'n vd hinh, nd dbng gbp ehu ye'u cho tang trudng va phit trien kinh te Nhflng sir gai md ve cich thflc lira chpn khai thic, sfl dung cic ngudn lure cic quan die'm kinh te' cd y nghia thai sir dieu Men Nhung gpi y ddi vdi Viet Nam Nude ta dangtienhanh cdng nghiep hda Men dai hda bdi canh the gidi cd nhieu bie'n dd'i Khoa hpc - edng nghe phat trie'n manh me nhanh chdng, tidthanh luc lupng san xuat true tiep, thflc day phan cdng lao ddng xa hdi cang sau sac tren pham vi toan the Brandley R.Schiller: Kinh te nay, Nxb Dai hoc qud'c gia, H, 2002 World Bank: Cua cii cda cac qudc gia a dau?, Doludngcua cii the'ky XXI, Nxb CTQG, H, 2008 William Easterley: Truy tim can nguyen tang trudng, Nxb Lao ddng-Xa hgi, 2009 NGHIEN c u u - T R A O BOI gidi, thay cho tinh trang sin xua't phan tan, rieng le la qua trinh hpp tac phan edng, trao ddi mdi cd the tao sin pham toan ven Toan cau hda Mnh te the gibi, ket qua ciia sir phat trien lire lupng sin xua't dan den sir dich chuyen va phan bd cac ngudn lue tren pham ri toan ciu Kinh te tri thflc da xuat Men dmpt sdnudc, ket qua ciia sir phat trie'n khoa hpc - edng nghe, nhat la edng nghe thdng tin dang tao mdt cude canh tranh, rupt dudi gifla cae nen Mnh te Sau cupc khung hoang Mnh te - tai chi'nh tren the gidi, hiu het cac nude phat trien bupc phai thay ddi chie'n lupc va co eau lai nen Mnh te Viet Nam dang md cfla hdi nhap cang sau rdng vao nen Mnh te toin cau, tinh Mnh the gibi vfla tao co hdi, vira dat nhflng thach thflc khdng nhd qua trinh khai thae, sfl dung cac ngudn lire cho tang trubng va phit trien Mnh te De hdi nhap va phit trien d'n dinh can quan tam mdt sdvan de sau day: - Thay ddi tuduy phdt trien Day la van de quan trpng hang diu khdng the khdng lam, khdng dupc cham tre Bii hpc ve dd'i mdi tu cua Dang ta tfl Dai hdi VI, trude he't la tu kinh te'da dua nudc ta khdi khflng hoang kinh te - xa hdi, on dinh va phat trie'n Trong dieu Men ngiy nay, chflng ta phai thay dd'i tu xa cflng theo kieu cacau, tuduy nhiem ky theo sir nang dpng, linh hoat, mem deo cua ea ehe thi trubng; thay dd'i chie'n lupe tang trurdng tfl chieu rpng sang chieu sau; thay dd'i tu chay theo sd' lupng bang tu chat lupng, hieu qua, Trong viec khai thae, sfl dung cic ngudn lure phai xba bd benh tfch chay theo sd'lurang bang viec lira chpn khai thae lpi the so sanh; thay eho quan die'm tieu dflng trudc mat bang quan diem giai quye't hai hba md'i quan he gifla lpi feh trudc mat va loi fch lau dai; thay eho cung each lam an rieng le, tur phat, cue bd dia phuong bang sir lien ke't hop tic, phan edng de khai thae lpi the cua nhau, sfl dung cac ngudn lure cd hieu qua, Thay dd'i mdt thdi quen da khd, thay dd'i tur Mnh te mdt each can ban, ddng bd lai cang khd khan hon, bdi le nd ddng cham den lpi fch eua nMeu ngubi, hon niia cai cii thubng tri tre, Mdn tim each gay can ngai, chd'ng lai cii mdi, nhung khdng phai khdng lam dupe Chung ta phai nhin dflng sir that, dung cam de vupt qua cMnh minh Cin diy manh edng tae nghien cflu ly Man va tdng ket thuc tiin ca va ngoM nude de nang cao nhan thflc ddng thbi lam ca sd cho riee bo sung, hoan tMen dubng ldi, cM'nh sach cho phfl hpp Thay dditirduy tiube het la tu ly Man Khdng ed mdt ly Man dan dubng thi ciing khdng the cd mdt phong trao thue tien nao ca day, neu khdng cd mdt tu Mnh te dung dan tM cflng khdng ed sir thay dd'i nao ma van lam theo ldi mbn cu Vi vay, thay ddi tu phat trien kM thuc tien tiong va ngoai nude da cd nMeu bien doi la yeu eau dat vua ca bin viia cap bich d nube ta Men - Lua chon ede nguon lue qud trinh phdt trien Dd'i vdi cac ngudn lure nudc ngoai, chung ta phai tfnh toan de thu hut nhiing ngudn Me phfl hop, cin thie't Ve nguyen tie chung, phai han che nhap khau nhflng loai hang hda dich vu nao ma dieu Men nirdc cd the sin xua't dupe vbi chi phf hop ly, mdt sdtu heu sin xuat ma chflng ta ed the lam dupc de thay the nhap khau Cin thu hflt vd'n, cdng nghe eao va trinh dp, Mnh nghiem quan ly tien tien cfla nube ngoai Han che va tie'n tdi cham dflt viee nhap edng nghe lac hau vao nudc ta Hien nay, ea nude cd gan 4.500 doanh ngMep ed vbn dau tunube ngoM nhung cdng nghe trung binh va lae hau khoang 70% Tfl ve sau can phai biet tfl chdi nhflng dur i n cdng nghe trung binh, lac hau, chpn cdng nghe cao, cdng nghe ngudn khu virc ed vd'n dau tur nube ngoai Dd'i vdi cae ngudn lure nude, can cd ke'hoach dau tu phat trien gan vdi viec khai thae, sfl dung hop If cd hieu qua Diu tu eho viec bao ve, tai tao, phat trien cic ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien, dac Met la diu tur phit trien ngudn nhan lure vi khoa hpe - cbng nghe Phai that sir coi giao due - dao tao va khoa hpe cdng nghe la qude saeh hang diu Trong viec khm thae, sfl dung cic ngudn lire, can cd cM'nh sach, bien phap de khai thae ngudn vd'n vb hinh va caetie'nbp khoa hpe ky thuat Dd'i vdi cac ngudn tii nguyen thien nhien, ben canh viee khai thae, sfl dung cd hieu qua tiem nang, lpi the, can cb ke'hoach gifl gin, bao ve, nhat la nhflng loai tii nguyen cd tim cMen lupc Han che khai thie, bao ve cae ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien d nudc ta Men se cd nhflng lpi the sau day: Thd nhdt, ta ed tay ngudn tai nguyen phong phfl, da dang cb the tao nMeu san pham ma eae nuoc dang khan Mem hoac da can Met Trong the ky XK, loai ngubi da timg chflng Men nhflng thdi ky khung hoang nang lurpng, nguyen lieu nhur diu md, kM ddt, than da va khflng hoang luong thuc Quan he cung ciu Mnh te cang thang lam pha vb quan he ngoai giao than 45 NGfflEN cuu-TRAO BOI tMen, din den nhflng cupc cMentianhcue bd, hoac mau khau san pham phan ldn dubi dang nguyen heu thd, thuin, xung dot gifla cae qud'c gia dan tdc d cac khu vuc sa che lam can Met tai nguyen, hieu qua tha'p Giai tien the gidi Nhiing cude khung hoang se cang doan sau, nhb thu hut vdn, edng nghe nude ngoai nen gia tang nhu cau san xui't va tieu dflng tang len, phat trien cac nganh truyen thd'ng va lim tang gia kM dd tai nguyen tMen nMen tM cd han Di nMen, tri gia tang eho san pha'm che bien Mdt sdnudc dat nhb cdtienbp khoa hpe - cdng nghe, eon ngubi tde dp tang trudng kha cao hang chiic nam, dua cb the tao cac san pham nhan tao nhung khdng phai hp vupt qua ngudng cac nude thu nhap thap va dirng la tat ei, rat nMeu san pham can thiet cho san xua't, vao hang cac nude thu nhap trung binh Den day, dbi sd'ng vin phai dua vao ngudn tai nguyen tMen nMen nudc nao bie't nhanh chdng chuyen sang cac ngudn Do dd, neu gifl gin, bao ve dupc cac ngudn tai nguyen lure khac, xay durng chie'n lupe tang trurdng mdi, dau thien nhien thi day la lpi the cfla chflng ta, tuvao edng nghe cao tao sin pham xua't khau cd Thu hai, gifl dupc tai nguyen thien nhien de dip ham lupng chat xam cao thi se dflng vao hang cac flng yeu ciu cdng nghiep hda Men dai hba thay vi nude cd thu nhap cao nhu Han Qud'c, Dai Loan, Hdng phai nhap kha'u, Trude day Chi'nh phu ehua Kdng, Singapore Ngupe lai, khdng dieh ehuyen ngudn dbng cfla rflng, mdi nam nude ta xua't kha'u tren lure, van tap trung khai thae tai nguyen thien nhien trieu m^ gd trbn, Hien nay, nganh cdng nghiep che thi phat trie'n cham chap, khd khan, se roi vao biy bie'n gd nude ta phai nhap khau gd tfl cac nudc mdi thu nhap trung binh, bdi vi cae ngudn tai nguyen nam hon ty USD, Theo dur bio cfla cac chuyen gia, thien nhien cflng da bi gidi han Nam 2009, thu nhap de'n nam 2013, Viet Nam phai nhap khau than da binh quan dau ngum cua Viet Nam dat 1,063 USD, mbi dap flng nhu cau san xua't nudc nhung vuat nguong nhbm cac nudc thu nhap tha'p, nhung Men tai, mdi nam lai xua't kha'u 20 trieu tan than ne'u khdng dich chuye'n ngudn lure va thay dd'i chie'n Dau md, khf dot, than di, quing kim loai la tai luac phat trien se khd tranh khdi roi vao bay thu nguyen hflu han nen can phai dupe gifl gin, bao ve nhap trung binh Tang trudng kinh te chi la sd va sfl dung hpp If Da't dai la tuUeu san xua't dac ao ne'u ehi dura ehu ye'u vao viee khai thic, bdc lot biet, qui trinh edng nghiep hba, dd thi hda qui mflc cac ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien, dat dai d nudc ta bi thoai hda bac mau, bi d nhiim, - Thay doi ehien luqc tdng trudng tu chiiu rdng san dat san xuat ndng nghiep bi thu hep Quy da't ndng ehieu sdu nghiep ea nude cd 9,3 trieu ha, dd dat lua 4,1 Dudi gbc dp vi md, tang trurdng theo ehieu rdng la trieu Tfl nam 2001 - 2007 da giam di 500.000 viec gia tang san pha'm hang hda dich vu ty le thuan da't ndng nghiep, rieng dat trdng lua giam 50.000 vbi gia tang cac yeu td dau vao, Mud'n ting san pha'm ha/nam^ Da't ndng nghiep bi thu hep de dpa de'n an dau phai tang cac ye'u td vat chat diu vao nhu vdn, ninh luong thurc va nguyen lieu eho phat trie'n cdng lao ddng, tai nguyen thien nhien Tang trudng theo nghiep, tac dpng xau de'n lao dpng, viec lam va an cMeu rpng thi san pham cd tang nhung Meu qua thap, sinh xa hdi, ehfla durng nhflng mam mdng gay bat lam mat can ddi nen kinh^te, din de'n can Met on ve ehinh tri, xa hpi Vi vay, gifl gin, bao ve tai tai nguyen, tan pha mdi trubng, nuac ta, de cd tdc dp nguyen thien nhien d nudc ta cd y nghia vd cflng tang trurdng - 8% GDP phai cb ty le vd'n dau tutren quan trpng ca ve kinh te, chi'nh tri, xa hpi 40% GDP, day la ty le kha cao so vdi cic nube, Detang Thli ba, chuyen sang cac ngudn lure khac, han che' san lupng than tfl 30 len 40 trieu ta'n/nam phai dau viec khai thie, sfl dung tai nguyen thien nhien se gifl tu them may mdc, thiet bi, tang them ngudn nang cho Viet Nam khdi rm vao "biy thu nhap trung binh" lupng, gd chdng lb Tang them dien tM se bi thieu hut nhu-mdt sdnudc Thdng thubng, cac nude ngheo tien d cac don vi khic, tang them gd chd'ng Id phai khai hanh cdng nghiep hda, giai doan diu dura ehu ye'u thae rflng,, Do vay, phat trien theo chieu rpng thi vio ngudn lure nudc, nha't la cic ngudn tai hieu qua thap ma khdng ben vung nguyen thien nhien Nhieu nude thurc hien chie'n lupc Tang trurdng theo chieu sau la viec gia tang san hubng ve xua't khau, tang cubng khai thae tai nguyen thien nhien nhung cdng nghe lac hau nen xua't Tap chf Cdng sin, sd790, - 2008, tr 62 46 NGfflEN c t r u - TRAO BOI pham hang hba dich vu nhung khdng tang them cac yeu td vat chat diu vao, hoac cd nhung tang it sfl dung cdng nghe va ham Mang chat xam sin xuat, hoac giam mflctieuhao nang lupng, nguyen heu tren mdt don vi san pha'm de' tang nang sua't lao ddng nha ap dung cdng nghe Men dai Viet Nam, tang 1% GDP phaitieutdn them 2% nang lupng Trong kM dd EU 10 nam, GDP tang 50% nhungtieuhao nang lupng khbng ting ^ Xet cac nhan td ddng gdp vio tang trudng kinh te gdm K la vd'n, L la lao ddng, TFP (Total Factor Productivity) la nang sua't cac nhan td'td'ng hpp thi d Viet Nam mflc ddng gdp cfla TFP edn tha'p Giai doan 1991 - 2000, mflc ddng gdp binh quan cfla K 67,5%, eua L 19%, cfla TFP 13,5%, Tumig tu, giai doan 2001 - 2008 lin lupt M 51%, 19,6%, 29,3%!'^, Theo Bd Ke'hoach va Dau tu, cac nhan td'ddng gdp eho tang tiudng kinh te' d Viet Nam, K 52%, L 20%, TFP28%11, Thay dd'i chie'n Mac tang trudng la van de khd khan, lau dai can chuan bi cic dieu Men ddng bp, dd phai quan tam de'n nhirng van de nhu nang cao nhan thflc, phat huy nang lure ndi sinh, nha't la khai thic, sfl dung dutrc ngudn vd'n vd hinh, xay dung ke't eau ting cflng va mem, cd chi'nh saeh hd tra, khuye'n khfch phit trien cae linh vurc uu tien, tap trung dau tu cho giao due - dao tao va khoa hpc - cdng nghe, nang cao tiem lure khoa hpe - cbng nghe, lira chpn cic nganh mfli nhpn diu tu cd trpng tam trpng diem, thu hflt cdng nghe cao, cdng nghe ngudn cfla nudc ngoai; thurc Men chinh saeh khau hao nhanh de ddi mdi cdng nghe tranh hao mbn vd hinh, tang gii tri gia tang, han che'vatie'ntdi cham dflt viec xua't khau san pha'm thd, sache, - Ca edu Iqi nen kinh te Nen Mnh tenirdc ta cbn mat can dd'i nhieu mat, Dd la, gifla tde dp tang trurdng va hieu qua, gifla phat trien va ben viing, giiia thi trubng nude va nude ngoai, gifla nhu eau phat trie'n va ting ca sd, mat can ddi phan bo ngudn lure, gifla phat trien va the che, giiia tap quyen va phan quyen Trong dd, bao triim la mat can dd'i gifla nhu cau phat trien va tinh ben virng-'-^, Vi vay, ca ca'u lai nen kinh te Men la rat cin thiet, Tren co sd dieu tra xac dinh cac ngudn lure, danh gia dflng tiem nang, the manh va nhirng han che, dur bio dutrctinhhinh phit trien va ngoai nutrc de tie'n hanh ca cau lai nen Mnh te eho phfl hpp Bo sung, dieu chfnh quy hoach cic vung, dinh hubng phat trien cho phfl hpp vdi yeu cau cdng nghiep hda, Men dai hda theo hubng md cfla hdi nhap, hpp tae phan cdng pham vi ca nube va vdi nude ngoii, Han chetinhtrang tur phat, rieng le manh niy lam gifla cac tinh, cac vflng nhu Men nay, Ca ca'u lai cac nganh, hnh vurc phue vu cho chie'n lupc phit trie'n theo ehieu sau, phat trien eae nganh mfli nhpn ed ham lupng chat xam eao nhu cdng nghe thdngtin,cdng nghe sinh hpc, cdng nghe vat lieu mdi, ndng nghiep cbng nghe eao Dau tuphat trien cic loai dieh vu du lich, dich vu cang bie'n, van tai bien, buu chi'nh viin thdng, tai chinh ngan hang, bao Mem, dich vu tuvan, dieh vu khoa hpc - cdng nghe, timg budc gan vdi phat trien kinh te tri thflc Ca ca'u lai doanh nghiep va san pha'm, Xay dung mpt sdtap doan kinh te'manh dudi dang cdng ty me, cdng ty eon san xuat kinh doanh da nganh nghe, Dd'i vdi cic doanh nghiep, sap xe'p lai bd may quan If ca ca'u lai ky thuat nganh nghe, cb the thu hep hoac md rdng quy md theo nganh nghe, Cd co ehe ehi'nh sach khuye'n khieh hoac budc cac doanh nghiep phai ddi mdi cdng nghe, gia tang bi quye't ky thuat, tang ham Mang chat xim, tfl dd ca ca'u lai sin pham de tang gii tri gia tang, dipflngnhu cau thi truang nude ta Men nay, sd'21 san pha'm, nhdm san pha'm cd ddng gdp tfl 0,5 -1% GDP thi 1/2 sd dd la cac san pha'm sa che, db hieu qua thap^^ Ra soit lai va dieu chinh ca eau diu tu Trong pham vi ca nudc, ehfnh phfl phai dieu chinh ca ca'u dau tu giiia cac vflng, cac nganh cho phfl hpp ca ngan han va dai han Viee dau tu qua nhieu san golf, san bay, ben cang, khu cdng nghiep d cac dia phutmg lam thu hep da't san xui't ndng nghiep, hieu qua thap, d nhiim mdi truang Trong dd diu tu eho ndng nghiep nhiing nam gin day cd xu hudng giam din, Ca ca'u dau tu d nudc ta phai bao dam phan bo ngudn lure hai hba, hop ly vfla tao dieu Men eho sur Bao Nhan dan, 11-12- 2007 tr 1, 10 Vd Hung Dung: Chd'ng suy thoai chu ky, Tap chf Nghien cUu kinh te, sd2 va 3,2010 11 Bao Diu tuXuan Canh Din, 2010, tr 25 12 Bao Diu tU, ngay25-6-2010, tr 13 Thdi bao kinh te Viet Nam, sd299, 15 -12-2009, tn 47 NGHIEN cuu-TRAO BOI lien ke't, hop tac phan edng gifla cae nganh, linh vurc Tai liiu tham khio: Cac Mac: Toan bg qua trinh sin xuat tubin chu nghia, Tu va cac dia phuong bin, quyen thUba Nxb ST H, 1962 Ve CO eau cM ngan sach, nen giam cM thutmg xuyen2 Cac Mac: Cac hgc thuyet ve gia tri thang du, Tubin, quyen nhat la cM xay dung nha nghi co quan, mua sam hang IV, phin thUhai, Nxb ST, H, 1969 xa XI pham, tang chi cho diu tuphat trien, cM tra no Cac Mac va Ph Angghen: Toan tap t 1, Nxb ST, H, 1978 Cac Mac va Ph Angghen: Toan tap, t 13, Nxb CTQG, H, d mflc hpp If han ehe tha'p nha't mflc bdi chi ngan 1993 sach, giam dan va Mem soit dupc eie khoan na nudc Cac Mac va Ph Angghen: Toan tap, t 26, Nxb CTQG, H, ngoai Kiem tra lai toan bd cac khoan diu tu cdng, xfl 1995 Paul A Samuelson - William D Nordhalls: Kinh tehgc, Tai ly dflt diem np nin, ein thiet phai cat giam diu tur d ban lan thd nhat, 11, t 2, Nxb Thdng ke, 2002 nhflng hnh vurc sfl dung vdn kem Meu qua lam that Brandley R Schiller: Kinh tengay Nxb DHQG, 2002 Mai Que Anh - Pham Nggc Chien - NguySn Nggc Thanh: thoit vd'n ngan sich Lich su tutudng kinh te, Nxb Khoa hgc va Ky thuat, H, 1992 Ngudn lire kinh te la cic ye'u td dau vao cho tang TS Neva Goodwin - PGS, TS Pham Vu Luan: Kinh tevimo trudng va phat trien kinh te Tfly vio dac diem eua nen kinh te chuyen doi, Nxb CTQG, H, 2002 10 World Bank: Cua cii cCia cac qudc gia a dau ? Do ludng mdi nudc, ngum ta cd cich thflc khai thae, sfl dung cda cii the'ky XXI, Nxb CTQG, H, 2008 cae ngudn lure khic Viet Nam dang tien hanh 11 William Easterley: Truy tim can nguyen tang tn/dng, Nxb edng nghiep hda Men dai hda vdi die'm xuat phat Lao dgng - Xa hdi, 2009 Tap chf Cdng sin, sd790, - 2008 tha'p nhumg d vao thm ky khoa hpe - cbng nghe phat 12 13 Tap chf Nghien ciiu kinh te', sd2 va 3, 2010 trien nhanh ehdng, lam gia tang nhieu cua cai, lam 14 Bao Nhan dan, 11 -12-2007 eho CO cau kinh te the gidi ehuyen dieh theo hudng 15 Thdi bao kinh te Viet Nam, sd299, 15-12- 2009 Bao Diu tuXuan Canh Din, 2010 tien bd Trong bdi einh dd, cin nhan thflc dupe tinh 16 17 Bao Diu tu, 25-6-2010 hinh de lira chpn vi xay dung chie'n Mac tang trurdng 18 Bao Thanh nien, 10-11 - 2009 phfl hop, tflng bube co ca'u lai nen kinh te tao dieu 19 Giao trinh Kinh tehgc phat trien, Trudng Dai hgc Kinh te qud'c dan, Nxb Thd'ng ke, H, 1997 Men eho viee khai thic, sfl dung eae ngudn lure hpp If 20 Giao trinh Kinh te'hgc phat trien, Hgc vien Chfnh tri Qudc cb hieu qua, bao dam sir phat trie'n ben vflng gia Hd Chi Minh, Nxb CTQG, H, 2002 NAM TAN MAO BAU TIEN CUA THIEN NIEN KY Tie'p theo trang vao 21 -12 - 2012 Tinh theo lieh "ean - ehi" la vao nam Nham TMn Ngubi ta ngb rang dd la thdi diem gpi la "tan the" eua nhan loai Lieu ed dd hay khdng la chuyen khae chfl nam Nham Thin 2012 chac chan la khdng phai Theo tinh toan cfla chuyen gia thien van hpe, dd la thbi diem ma mat phang quy dao cfla trai dat trflng vdi mat phang quy dao ciia cae hanh tinh thudc thii duong he cflng nhu day Ngan Ha vfl tru Qui dat bi roi vao "khe hd" ciia Ngan Ha va bi sflc hflt ghe gdm cua cac hanh tinh, cho nen sir sd'ng cung nhu tri tue cua ngubi thay dd'i rat ldn (Cosmic Awareness and Spiritual Transition), mdt ky nguyen van minh mdi chua tflng thiy cfla ngubi dupe bat diu Neu dung nhuvay thi nam Tan Mao se la nam qua dp sang ky nguyen van minh mdi Nam qui dp bao gid cung la nam diy bien ddng Nam 2011 la nam Tan Mao diu tien cfla the'ky XXI, ddng thm cflng la nam Tan Mao diu tien cua thien men ky thfl ba Ngay diu xuan cfla nam Tan Mao lai la mdng - duong lieh, la lap Dang, la thbi diem md diu nhiem ky Dai hpi Dang lin thfl XI Ke't thflc Tuyen ngon doc lap ngiy 02 - - 1945, Ho Chf Minh trinhtipngtuyen bdvdi toan the gidi ring: "N VietNam eo quyen hudng tudo vd doe ldp, vd suthdt da thdnh mot nudc tudo doc lap Todn the ddn tqc V quyet dem tdt cd tinh thdn vd luc luqng, tinh mqng vd cua cdi degiu viing quyen tudo, doc lap dy" UA tuyen bdtrinh trpng dd cang eb y nghia hon bao gib het d thm diem Men Nam Tan Mao, nam qui dp cua dan tpc Viet Nam trdve vdi Thuy to Kinh Dutmg Vuong - Lac Long Quan de hda rdng nam Nham Thin, de bay len ddn ehao ky nguyen van minh mdi chua tung thay lich cfla nhan loai 48 ... nhuvay thi nam Tan Mao se la nam qua dp sang ky nguyen van minh mdi Nam qui dp bao gid cung la nam diy bien ddng Nam 2011 la nam Tan Mao diu tien cfla the'ky XXI, ddng thm cflng la nam Tan Mao... nguyen nam hon ty USD, Theo dur bio cfla cac chuyen gia, thien nhien cflng da bi gidi han Nam 2009, thu nhap de'n nam 2013, Viet Nam phai nhap khau than da binh quan dau ngum cua Viet Nam dat... eb y nghia hon bao gib het d thm diem Men Nam Tan Mao, nam qui dp cua dan tpc Viet Nam trdve vdi Thuy to Kinh Dutmg Vuong - Lac Long Quan de hda rdng nam Nham Thin, de bay len ddn ehao ky nguyen