Tận dụng cơ hội dân số vàng ở việt nam cơ hội, thách thức và các gợi ý chính sách

Nghien ciiu Gia dinh va Gioi So - 011 Tan dung ca hgi dan so vang of Viet Nam: ca hoi, tliacli thuc va cac ggi y chinh sach Ldi Toa s c a n : Ket qua Tong Dieu tra Dan so' va Nha d nam 2009 chi r i n g Viet Nam da bUdc vao thdi ky ma cac nha nhan khau hoc va kinh te goi la thdi ky "cd hgi dan sc' vang" Thdi ky dUdc cho la cd hoi nha't, "c6 mot khong hai" qua trinh qua nhan k h i u hoc ciia mot quo'c gia va d Viet Nam no se ked dai khoang 30 nam bat dau t g nam 2010 Trdng thdi ky nay, it nha't hai ngUdi hoat dgng kmh te se ho trd cho mgt ngUdi khong hdat dgng kinh te Trong boi canh do, "cd hgi dan so'vang" dUdc Cdi la mgt trdng nhUng van de trgng tam cua Chien lUdc Phat trie'n Kinh te - Xa hgi Viet Nam thap ky tdi cung nhU Ke hdach Phat tnen Kmh te - Xa hgi giai doan 2011-2015 va da dUdc dUa vad Chien lUdc Dan sc'va Sdc khde sinh san giai doan 2011-2020 cdng nhU cac chfnh sach va chien lUdc ciia cac nganh Bao cad "Cd hgi dan sd vang d Viet Nam: cd hgi, thach thUc va ggi y chfnh sach" dUdc Quy Dan sd'Jjien hdp quoc (UNFPA) thUc hien chUdng trinh cua Ke hdach Met Lien hdp qudc (UN One Plan) Bao cac tcng quan va phan tich cu the ve cac van de chfnh sach hien ciing nhU de xua't cac chinh sach den cac nha hoach dinh va lap chinh sach nham tan dung idi da tiem nang ciia "cd hgi dan so'vang" Xin tran trgng gidi thieu cung ban dgc Tif k h o a : Dan sn "vang"; Chfnh sach dan sc'; Chinh sach phat t n e n kinh te-xa hoi Nhieu nghien ctiu gin day cho tha'y "ca hdi dan so vang" ddng gdp khoing 1/3 vao su tang trudng kinh id cua cac nudc Ddng A Tuy nhidn, thdi ky dan so "vang" se khdng tai ydu mang lai cac tac dgng tich cue ddi T r a n Thi Van NUdng 87 vdi tang trudng kinh te va phat trien ngudi Kinh nghiem dugc rut la diu tu Idn va cd hieu qua cho y td, phat trien giao due, dao tao va ngudn nhan luc - nhu'ng nhan id tac ddng tfeh cue den ky nang trinh cua luc lugng lao ddng cd vai trd cdi yeu viec lao va tri tang trudng kinh td thdi ky dan sd "vang" Bdi vay, viec tiep thu kinh nghiem va phat trien dung trgng tam dd tan dung cdng "ca hdi dan sd vang" la mdt nhiem vu cin thiet cua Viet Nam giai doan Bao cao "Tan dung co hdi dan sd vang d Viet Nam: co hdi thach thuc va cac ggi y chfnh sach" cua tac gii Giang Thanh Long, dugc quy Dan sd Lien hgp qud'c - UNFPA xuat bin thing 12 nam 2010 dua tren cac sd lieu thd'ng ke td cac cudc Tdng Didu tra Dan sd va Nha d giai doan 1979- 2009 cung vdi cac du bao dan sd gan day nhim phan tfeh cac co sd va luan chung vd lac ddng cua bien ddi ca cau tudi cua dan sd den tang trudng kinh te vdi nhdng ndi dung chfnh sau: 1) ldm lit kinh nghiem mdt sd nudc khu vuc viec tan dung ca hdi dan sd "vang"; 2) phan tfeh sd lieu dan sd Viet Nam nham chi giai doan dien co hdi dan sd "vang"; va 3) chi nhdng thuan lgi, thach thuc va mdt sd khuyen nghi chfnh sach de tan dung co hdi dan so cho tang trudng va phat trien L Tan dung cd hoi dan so vang: kinh nghiem Dong A va Dong Nam A Dua vao cac nghien cuu danh gia, phan tfeh cac chfnh sach tan dung co hdi dan sd "vang" cda cac nudc Ddng A va Ddng Nam A Bio cao chi nhdng nhan id quan trgng giup cac nudc Ddng A dat dugc su phat trien thin ky, ddng thdi nhan dinh nhdng han che cua mdt sd nudc Ddng Nam A giai doan "vang" Theo cac nghien cuu mdt sd nhan td co ban ddng gdp cho tang trudng 'than ky' cua cac nudc Nhat Ban Han Qudc Dai Loan, Singapore la: (1) ngudn nhan luc ddi dao va cd chat lugng, (2) dan sd dn dinh va tang trudng viec lam cao va (3) ty le tiet kiem va dau tu cao Bai hgc cua Nhat Ban vice tan dung co' hdi dan sd "vang" cho giai doan "lang trudng than ky" hi hang loat cac chi'nh sach ve sue khde sinh san va he thd'ng kinh te vf md dugc thuc hien ddng bd Ben canh cac nhan td quan trgng dd, nhidu nghien cdu cdng ket luan ring mdi trudng kinh td va chfnh tri thuan lgi da gidp cac qudc gia Ddng A khai thac triet de co hdi dan sd "vang" Ngoai viec tfeh Idy tu bin va ngudn lao ddng chai lugng cao, chfnh sach va chien luac chu ddng cua chfnh phu cac nudc Ddng A viec khai thac cac nuudn luc tri thdc cdng nhu cac bi quydt cdng nghe de lang cudng ban nda 88 Nghien ciiru Gia dinh va Gidi Quyen 21, so 2, tr 86-92 nang 'ndi luc hda' da dua cac qud'c gia vao quy dao phat trien 'thin ky' nhidu thap ky Bao cao nhan dinh qua Irlnh chuyen ddi dan sd cua cac nudc Ddng Nam A didn cham ban so vdi cac nudc Ddng A, dd Singapore mdi bit dau ca cau dan sd "vang" tu nam 1980; Thai Lan id nam 1990 va Indonexia td nam 2010 Philipin bit dau cd hdi dan sd vang td nam 2030 Do dai trung binh cua giai doan ca hdi dan sd "vang" d Ddng Nam A la khoing 30 nam Phan lich sd lieu cua nhidu nghien cuu kinh td cho thiy lgi tdc dan sd cua khu vuc Ddng Nam A hien khdng Idn nhu lgi ldc dan sd cua khu vuc Ddng A thdi kl 1960- 1990 Nguyen nhan dugc cho la su khac biet gida dan so boat ddng kinh le vdi dan so khdng boat ddng kinh id cua cac nudc Ddng Nam A ndi chung khdng cao nhu cua cac nude Ddng A Dieu khien cho ly sd phu thudc ve mat kinh id d Ddng Nam A cdn cao Thdm vao dd, bao cao cho ring chfnh su lua chgn ve chien lugc cho giao due va y le mdi trudng chfnh tri da dang tao nen su khac biet gida cac qud'c gia Ddng Nam A viec thdc day tang trudng nhanh cdng hay thai bai Lay vf du vd Philipin va Singapore, xuit phat diem ve ngudn nhan luc kha tuang ddng nhung Philipin khdng cd dugc budc phat Iridn an tugng nhu Singapore ty suit sinh cdn qua cao va chfnh sach va the che vi md chu'a ldi Bao cao ket luan ring co hdi dan so "vang" da, dang va se de'n vdi cac nudc Ddng A va Ddng Nam A, nhien cac nudc cd nhti'ng trii nghiem khac vd viec tan dung cdng nhu chuan bi cho viec tan dung ca hdi dan sd Nhat Bin, Han Qud'c da rat cdng nhd phat huy dugc ngudn nhan luc chit lugng vdi ty le cd viec lam va nang suit lao ddng cao, nhien mdt sd nudc cdng dang gap nhidu khd khan viec tan dung ca hdi du dang giai doan ca hdi "vang" (nhu Thai Lan) hoac chuan bi budc vao giai doan ca hdi "vang" (nhu Inddndxia, Malaysia va Philipin) Thuc te, ca hdi dan sd "vang" chi la ca hdi va khdng tu than dem de'n 'lgi tuc' cho bit ky qud'c gia nao khdng cd nhdng chfnh sach, chie'n lugc phu hgp de tan dung nd Day la bai hgc cho Viet Nam ddn nhan ca hdi dan sd cd mdt khdng hai Giai doan cd hoi dan so vang d Viet Nam Dd so sanh vdi cac nudc cung nhu phan tfeh cac ngu y chfnh sach cho Viet Nam viec tan dung ca hdi dan sd "vang", Bao cao da sd dung cac dinh nghia cua Lien hop qud'c (2008) vd ly sd phu thudc, dd ty sd phu thudc dan sd dugc tfnh bing ty sd giu:a so trd em (0-14) va T r a n Thi Van NUtfng 89 ngudi cao tudi (tu 65 trd len) vdi 100 ngudi tudi lao ddng (15-64) TTieo dd, ca hgi dan sd "vang" xay ty sd nhd ban 50, tuc la cd ngudi ngoai tudi lao ddng se dugc "hd trg" bdi ban ngudi tudi lao ddng Bien ddi dan sd, dac biet la su thay ddi cda ty suit sinh va ty suit chet, lac ddng de'n co ciu ludi dan sd va co hdi dan sd "vang" la mdt kei qua cua su bidn ddi dd Mdi nudc cd co hdi "vang" vao cac thdi diem va vdi dai khac TTieo Tdng didu tra Dan sd va Nha d 2009, co cau ludi cua dan sd Viet Nam bidn ddi manh theo hudng ty le Ire em (0-14 tudi) cang giim; dan sd tudi 15-64 tang len va dan sd cao ludi (65-I-) cdng tang din Kei qui la ty sd phu thugc dan sd dat mdc 45,8 vao nam 2010 va tang Idn 50,8 vao nam 2040 Dd la mdt can cu ma nhieu nha dan sd bgc du bao thdi kl CO hdi dan sd "vang" cua Viet Nam da chinh thdc bit dau va keo dai khoing td 2010- 2040 Tan dung cd hoi dan so "vang" d Viet Nam Trong phin nay, Bao cao lap trung phan ti'ch nhdng co hgi va thach thdc cung nhu khuyen nghi vdi bdn nhdm chi'nh sach la: (1) giao due va dao lao; (2) lao ddng, vide lam va ngudn nhan luc; (3) dan sd, gia dinh va y te; va (4) an sinh xa hdi Nhd'ng co hdi, thach thuc va khuyen nghi cho bd'n nhdm chfnh sach dugc tdm lugc nhu sau: Chinh sdch gido due vd ddo tgo Xu hudng ty le tre em giim din thdi gian tdi la co hdi thuan lgi de nang cao ban chai Itrgng giao due d cap tidu hgc va phd thdng co sd bdi ty so giua so hgc sinh va sd giao vien cung nhu sd lugng hgc sinh trung binh mdi ldp hgc se giam Khi chi phf cho hai cap hgc giim thi ngudn luc cd the dugc tan dung cho cac chuang trinh gilo due d cap hgc khac Thdi kl cdng md ca hdi va trach nhiem Idn cua viec dao ttio nghd eho mdt luc lugng lao ddng ddi dao ihdi gian tdi Viec phat huy cd hieu qui ngudn luc "ngudi cao ludi" cd hgc van va trinh chuyen mdn cung la mdt ca hdi tdi ddi vdi su phat trien nghe nghiep cua the he tre tuong lai Ben canh dd, linh vuc giao due va dao lao hien dang ddi mat vdi nhd'ng thach thirc vd he thd'ng giao due chua hoan thien, su khac biet rai Idn vd kha nang tidp can gida cac nhdm dan sd; chat lugng giao due va dao tao nghd chua cao; diu tu cho giao due chua thfch dang, chua dung trgng tam va hieu qua thap Td nhdng ca hdi va thach thdc dd, Bao cao dua mdt sd ggi y chfnh 90 Nghien cUu Gia dinh va Gidi Quyen 21, so 2, tr 86-92 sach nhu: giim bdt dao lao giao vien tidu hgc va phd thdng ca sd; giim xay trudng ldp lieu hgc va phd thdng co sd; tang cudng ngudn luc cho nang cao chit lugng; tang cudng hd trg tie'p can giao due va dao tao nghd ddi vdi cac nhdm dan sd yeu the, dac biet vd van dd tai chfnh va td chu:c mang ludi co sd dao lao; md rdng va nang cao chat lugng dao tao nghe theo nhu ciu thi trudng lao ddng; diy manh giao due ky nang sdng, hanh vi va kie'n thdc xa hdi, dac biet cho thieu nien, nien va nhdng ngudi chuan bi budc tham gia lire lugng lao ddng Chinh sdch lao dgng, viec ldm vd ngudn nhdn luc Bao cao chi ra: luc lugng lao ddng tie, ddi dao nhung trinh chuydn mdn ky thuat thap va thidu ky nang; bat binh ding gidi tren thi trudng lao ddng cdn Idn va cd the tac ddng lieu cue den vi the va sdc khde sinh sin cua phu nu; ty le lao ddng ndng nghiep vin cdn cao rudng dai cang ft; ly le thai nghiep va thidu viec lam cua nien; lao ddng di cu nien tang nhanh, nhung cac chfnh sach lao ddng, viec lam va cac dich vu xa hdi lien quan cdn nhieu bat cap, dac biet cac chfnh sach ve thu nhap, nang cao ky nang va lay nghd la nhung thach thdc Idn linh vu'c lao ddng viec lam cua Viet Nam hien Nhdm nghien cuu cung dua nhdng ggi y chfnh sach cho linh \'Uc nhu: da dang hda nganh nghd d khu vuc ndng thdn; thuc diy chat lugng lao ddng va san phim cua cac nganh sd dung nhieu lao ddng; tang ca hgi viec lam va hudng de'n nhdng viec lam tao gia tri gia lang cao dua tren tang nang suit lao ddng, dac biet la cho nien; tang cudng binh ding gidi tren thi trudng lao ddng, dac biet chu trgng den nang tie'p can vdi co hdi dao lao nghd va viec lam cung nhu didu kien lam viec cho nd gidi; xay dung chidn lugc va chfnh sach phat trien ngudn nhan luc, dd dao tao nghe ddng vai trd quan trgng Dam bio ngudn tai chfnh cho diu tu va tang trudng; chfnh sach va chie'n lugc phat trien vdng va khu vuc cin thfch dng vdi xu the di dan dd dim bio dap ung cac nhu ciu kinh te va xa hdi gin lidn vdi qua liinh di dan; chfnh sach xuit khiu lao ddng dim bio tao viec lam va thu nhap cho ngudi lao ddng mdt each ben vdng; lang cudng xay dung va trien khai he thd'ng thdng tin viec lam qua cac phuang tien thdng tin dai chung Chinh sdch ddn sd, gia dinh vd y te Theo danh gia cua nhidu bao cao ihl cac chi sd y te cua Viet Nam ldi ban nhieu nudc cd cung trinh phat Iridn kinh te, va tham chf cdn tuang duang vdi mdt sd nudc cd muc thu nhap binh quan diu ngudi cao ban 3- T r a n Thi Van Niiofng 91 lin, didu dd tao nhdng ca hdi ldi cho viec nang cao chat lugng dan sd giai doan tdi Xu hudng dan sd Ire em giim giup tap trung nhieu ngudn luc ban cho viec nang cao chai lugng dich vu y id Bdi vay, cin diu tu sau rdng va cd hieu qui ban cho cac chuong liinh cham sdc sdc khde ba me va Ire em Sdc khde sinh sin da cd nhidu cai thien song vin cdn nhieu thach thdc, dac biet la HIV/AIDS, tinh due khdng an loan, cd thai ngoai y mud'n va nao pha thai cua vi nien va nien Nhdm nd nien di cu rat dd tdn thuong vd sue khde sinh sin Kha nang tidp can cac dich vu y td cua cac nhdm dan sd rat khac nhau, dd ngudi ngheo, ngudi dan tdc thieu sd va ngudi di cu ft cd kha nang tiep can hon Theo dd, cin diy manh chfnh sach giao due, truyen thdng chuyen ddi hanh vi va cung cap cac dich vu sdc khde sinh sin, dae biet cho vi nien va nien Cin chd trgng cham sdc sdc khde va sire khde sinh san, phdng chdng lay nhiem HIV va cac benh lay nhiem qua dudng tinh due cho nien di cu bdi so lugng va nhu ciu cham sdc sue khde cua nhdm ddi tugng ngiy cang tang nhung cac dich vu y te chua thuc su phat trien theo xu hudng dd dap ung day du cac nhu cau Mdt van de nda cin dugc tuyen truydn sau rdng dd la thuc diy cdng ddng, cac td chuc tham gia vao viec phdng, chdng nan bao luc gia dinh va lao ddng tre em Chinh sdch an sinh xd hgi Theo cac nghien cdu danh gia, qudc gia nao cd he thdng an sinh xa hdi rdng khip thi nang tdn thuong cda cac nhdm dan sd dd la yeu the nhit cung dugc giim bdi dang kc Vi vay, viec xay dung mdt he thdng an sinh xa hdi loan dien d cac khfa canh nhu bao phd rdng va kha thi vd mat tai chfnh hi bet sire quan trgng dac biet vdi Viet Nam la nudc dang qua trinh chuydn ddi ci md hinh kinh id va nhan khiu hgc Trong thai ky dan sd "vang", luc lugng lao ddng ddi dao viec lam vdi thu nhap cang cao se la ngudn ddng gdp Idn cho quy an sinh xa hdi va thdc day su ben vdng ve lai chinh cho he thd'ng Tuy nhien tbam gia bio hidm xa hdi va bao hidm y id chu yeu la cac ddi tugng cd thu nhap cao, sdng d dd thi hoac cac vung cd didu kien phat Iridn han, cac ddi lugng yeu the tham gia cdn qui ft Du muc bao phu cua he thd'ng bio hiem y te vdi cac nhdm dan sd yeu the da dugc cai thien, nhung mdc tie'p can va ganh nang chi lieu cham sdc y id vin cdn qua Idn Bdi vay, can da dang hda cac hinh thdc bao hidm theo hudng linh boat, dd dang chuyen ddi de cac nhdm ddi lugng cd nang tidp can ldi hon \'di ca bao hidm bat budc va tu nguyen 92 Nghien ciiru Gia dinh va Gidi Quyen 21, so 2, tr 86-92 Khi nang tidp can vdi cac dich vu an sinh xa hdi cua nhdm lao ddng di cu - nhdm lao dgng dd tdn thuang nhai trudc cac cu sdc kinh te - cdn rai tha'p Ty le ngudi cao tudi hudng huu trf va cac che trg cap xa hdi cdn ft, dac biet cac ddi tugng yeu the Muc rd ri cua cac chuang trinh muc tidu cdn kha Idn VI vay, cin tie'p tuc thuc day nang tiep can va su dung cac hinh thdc cung cap dich vu y te', dac biet cho cac nhdm dan sd yeu the hoac cac vung cdn kem phat trien Can id chdc, thiei ke he thd'ng trg cap xa hdi theo hudng phd cap, dac biet cho cac nhdm dan so dd tdn thuang nhu ngudi cao tudi, ngudi dan tdc thieu so va ngudi dan sdng d cac vung xa xdi, kem phat trien Ngoai nhung chfnh sach cu the tren, viec nhan thdc dung vai trd cua dan sd phat Iridn, tao mdi trudng chfnh sach phd hgp dd cac ydu to dan sd phat huy va thuc day viec nghidn cuu chfnh sach dan so thiet thuc, cd trgng lam la nhtrng budc cin lam ddi vdi cac nha nghien ciai va hoach dinh chfnh sach Ket luan Danh gia bdi cinh cua Viet Nam hien cdn nhidu ban chd ve nang luc lai chfnh va quin ly, nhdm lac gia khuyen cao Viet Nam cin phai lua chgn cac uu tien cho tdng giai doan cu the Vdi giai doan 2011-2020, cin tap trung chfnh sach vao cac van de nhu: nang cao chat lugng cham sdc dich vu cham sdc ba me ci trudc va thai ki cd thai, dinh duang Ire em, chai lugng giao due; van dd chat lugng dan sd tudi lao ddng; van dd chfnh sach va chuong trinh an sinh xa hdi loan dien dd giii quydt cac rui ro cd the niy sinh qua trinh chuyen ddi kinh id Cung vdi viec tan dung co hdi dan sd "vang", Viet Nam cdng cin vach cac chien lugc, chfnh sach, chuang trinh dai ban ca hdi dd kei thdc, dac biet dan sd budc vao thdi ky gia hda Bidn ddi ca cau tudi dan sd tie ddng den tiet kiem, diu tu, tang trudng kinh leva quan he kinh te, xa hdi giua cac the he nhu the nao vin la mdt ciu hdi nghien cu'u Idn chua dugc thuc su quan tam d Viet Nam Nghien cdu thuc su la mdt tai lieu huu fch cho nhdng nha nghien cuu, nhdng ngudi quan tam den su phat tnen ben vdng cua Viet Nam, dac biet la cac nha hoach dinh chfnh sach, nhim tan dung cdn^ ca hdi dan sd "vang", lua chgn, tao hudng di dung din, vung chic cho su phat tridn cua Viet Nam giai doan tdi.B Tran Thj Van Nudng {Gidi thieu) ... Ddng Nam A didn cham ban so vdi cac nudc Ddng A, dd Singapore mdi bit dau ca cau dan sd "vang" tu nam 1980; Thai Lan id nam 1990 va Indonexia td nam 2010 Philipin bit dau cd hdi dan sd vang td nam. .. cua giai doan ca hdi dan sd "vang" d Ddng Nam A la khoing 30 nam Phan lich sd lieu cua nhidu nghien cuu kinh td cho thiy lgi tdc dan sd cua khu vuc Ddng Nam A hien khdng Idn nhu lgi ldc dan sd... bai hgc cho Viet Nam ddn nhan ca hdi dan sd cd mdt khdng hai Giai doan cd hoi dan so vang d Viet Nam Dd so sanh vdi cac nudc cung nhu phan tfeh cac ngu y chfnh sach cho Viet Nam viec tan dung