Tran Viet Khanh va dig Tap chi KHOA HOC & CONG NGHE 84(08): 71 -75 DEMOGRAPHIC T R A N S I T I O N IN BAC KAN P R O V I N C E - VIETNAM PERIOD 1999-2009 A N D FORECASTING THE O N E FOR T H E N E X T 10 YEARS Tran Viet Khanh', Bui Thi Thanh Huong\ Ha Thi Bien,^ Thainguyen I niversity 'Hanoi College oj Education - Na Rl High school, Bac Kan province SUMMARY Bac Kan is one of the poorest provinces gf Vietnam (GDP per capita is 390 USD), locates 170 km from Hanoi to the north The natural area is 4,868.41 km2 The population of the province in 2009 was 295,000 people, average population density is 60.66 persons ' km2 Bac Kan has seven ethnic groups living together Incomes are mainly from agricultural products The challenge today of Bac Kan is low labor quality, high rate of unemployment, unbalanced labor structure, gender, and high proportion of agricultural labor This creates pressure on the development of local socio-economic To solve this problem, the authors conducted a demographic study on population fluctuation of Bac Kan during period 1999 - 2009 to contribute to elucidate the structure of the population, birth rate, death rate and their impact to socio-economic development in Bac Kan province, to predicts the population and propose solutions for sustainable development to the population in 2019 Keywords: Populatlun, Transitlan, Birth rate Death rate Bac Kan INTRODUCTION Bac Kan is one of the poorest provinces of Vietnam (GDP / person / year - 2009 is $ 390 / person / year), that is far from Hanoi capital about 170 kilometers toward the north-east It's square area is 4868.41 km' Province's population in 2009 was 295,296 people, the average population density is 60.66 persons/km" There are seven ethnic groups living there (Kinh, Tay, Nung, Dao, San Chay, Mong, Hoa) Bae Kan separated from Bac Thai province in 1997 The main income comes from the province's agricultural production But the biggest problem exists at present is low-level labor force, high unemployment rate, large unequal in economic structure and labor structure like imbalance gender, high rate labor of agriculture The problem has created pressure to socio-economic development of the province Researching demographic transition in Bae Kan period 1999 - 2009 contributed to understanding the evolution of crude birth and death rate, population structure and the effects of these fluctuations to economy and society Since then, the team predicted demographic transition of this province by 2019 and proposed the optimal population policy for sustainable development Objective - Researching demographic transition Backan province from 1999 - 2009; of - Analyzing impacts of this transition on economy and society in this province; - Eorecasting demographic trend and impacts on the province until 2019 Approaches & Methods - Analyzing statistics method from data of the General Statistics Office Vietnam - Investigating sociology and experts method - Eield trip method combine with GIS - Eorecasting method and analyzing system Results 4.P Demographic transition of Backan province from 1999 - 21)1)9 4.1.1 Dimension population After 10 years, dimension population of Backan province increased 18578 people and changed the age structure Proportion of children in total population decreased 11,6% (from 36,1%) down to 24.2%), proportion of elderly in total population (upper 60) increased 1.2% (from 7% to 8,2%), proportion of adult in total population (1560) increased very fast 10,4% ( from 56,9% to 67,3%) Comparing to Vietnam, South East Asia and the World, the dependent people rate Tel: 09I2IH7IIH: Email: iran\-iett