CHUYEN MUC KHOA HOC XA HOl T H t GiO-l ADOLPHE QUETELET VA NHLFNG DONG GOP TRONG XA HOI HOC LE MINH TI^N Trong imh vi/c nghien cwu xa hoi hoc cung nhw cac giao trinh ve xa hoi hoc tai Viet Nam noi chung, gan nhw rit it neu khong ndi la khong de cap den tac gia ngw&i Bl la Adolphe Quetelet Hien twang la hoan toan binh thwang vi the ky xa hoi hoc, giai nghien cwu xa hoi hoc the giai noi chung cung da quen lang Qu6telet Nhwng noi den nghi§n cwu xa hoi hoc djnh Iwang ma nha nghien cwu chac chan phai dung den tri thwc thong ke, thi mpt nhwng ngwai co cong dau tien la Quetelet, bai ong dwac xem nhw la ngwai tien phong viec ap dung thong ke va viec to chwc dw li$u thong ke ITnh vwc xa hoi hpc Dong thai tim hieu ve hien twang toi pham, chac chin Quetelet la mot tac gia can phai dwac trich dan vi ong chinh la ngwai dat nen mong cho "toi pham hoc thwc chwng" (la criminologie positiviste) Bai viet trinh bay mot each van tat quan diem cua Adolphe Quetelet nghien cwu xa hoi hoc dinh iwang, quan diem ve "con ngwai trung binh" va l$p luan ve "thien hwang toi pham" von la nhwng ddng gop khien ong dwac xem nhw mot nha xa hoi hoc thi/c thu VAl N E T T l £ u SO* Nha thien van hpc, toan hpc, thong ke hpc va xa hpi hpc nguo'i Bi Lambert Adolphe Jacques Quetelet chao da\ vao th^ng 2/1796 tgi ph6 Gand va m i t vao thang 2/1874 tai Bruxelles (Bl) Nam „^« I-! u i X* 1819, ong lay bang tien si toan hpc tat L6 Minh Ti6n Th?c sT Tru-p-ng Dgi hpc Md ThSnh H6 Chi Minh tru'o'ng Oai hoc Gand (I'Universite de Gand, Bi) va tap trung si/ quan tam vac ITnh vyc thien van hpc De chuan bj cho viec thl^t lap mpt dai thien van tai Bi, nhl>ng nam 1820 ong sang Paris (Phap) va lam viec vo'i cac nha thien van va toan , „ , , „ , „ hoc Phap nhu' Alexis Bouvard, Francois ^' L, „ , , , Arago, Pierre Simon Laplace, Joseph Feurier, Simeon Denis Poisson Nho' thai gian lam viec vo'i cac nha khoa hpc Phap vl^a neu, ong da kham pha du'ac each LE MINH TlgN - ADOLPHE QUETELET VA NHLTNG BONG GOP dng dung cdc phygng phap toan xdc suit nhdm kiem seat cac sai so Iydng (erreurs de mesure) thien van hpc Sau thdl gian tham gia lap vd lam giam d i e dai thien van Bruxelles (Bi), dng da chuyin hygng sang viec dng dung toan hpc nghien cdu cac hien tygng lidn quan d i n ngydi, bdi dng cho rang each ngydi ta lygng t h i gidi ty nhidn (cu t h i Id thien van hpc) cung hcan tcan cd t h i ap dung de Iydng xa hpi ngudi Chinh vl vgy, dng da tham gla sang lap nhilu hiep hpi vd tgp chi khoa hpc thing ke ma mpt s l dd Id Hiep hpi thing ke heang gia Luan Don (Royal Statistical Society cf London) dugc lap nam 1834, Ky yiu Hdi thong ke Luin Bdn (Transactions of the Statistical Society of London) ddi nam 1837 Ndm 1841, dng la ngydi thdnh lap va lam chu nhiem eg quan thing kd chinh phu (la Commission Centrale de Statistique) d i u tidn tren t h i gidi Nam 1846, dng da cho tlln hdnh cupc dilu tra dan s i dau tien mang tlnh khoa hpc tgi BI QUETELET VA XA HOI HOC OjNH LLTONG Cd t h i ndi chinh Quetelet la nha sang lap ciia loai hinh nghien cdu xa hdi hpc djnh lygng (la spciologie quantitative) vl ong la ngydi d i u tidn ap dung ludt phan phii chuan (la distribution normale) ngdnh thing ke vao vide nghien cdu vd ly giai cac hien tygng thupc ddi sing xa hii Vd cQng chinh vipc ap dung cac thuat toan thong ke cua dng da gdp phin djnh vj nganh xa hpi hpc ben egnh cac nganh khca hgc xa hdi khac Qua vay, thdl ky d i u , xd hdi hpc ludn phai chdng minh tinh chinh ddng cua minh va Quetelet da c l gdng xae lap dja vj chp xd hpl hpc b i n g each s d dung cac s l lieu thing kd chinh thdc, sau dd diing cac ky thudt thing ke d l giai thich va xdc djnh cdc "qui lugt" cho cac hipn tugng ddi s i n g xa hdi nhy ty le sinh, ty Id chit, ty Id toi pham, ty Id ty td, viec k i t hdn Theo dng, t i t ca nhdng hien tugng dd cd ve nhy id k i t qua x u i t phat td nhdng quylt djnh ciia cd nhan, nhung nhin vdo cac s l thing ke hing nam, cac hien tygng i y lai d i l n mpt each I n djnh vd theo mgt qui lugt nhit djnh, vl t h i , cac ca quan thing ke cung giing nhu cac dai quan sat thien van d chd la phai ghi chep lai cac hien tygng xa hdi cd tinh I n djnh va cd t h i d y bao dygc T h i ndn, dng dygc xem la ngygi cd vai trd chil y l u viec phat triln vd p h i biln cdc phygng phap "do ludng xd hdi" (mesures sociales) VI cho ring cac hien tygng xa hpl la cd tlnh qui luat, on djnh va cd t h i tien doan dygc nen Quetelet dugc xem la ngudi ung hg 111 tilp can "quylt djnh lugn" (le determinisme), tde hanh ddng ciia ngydi bj chi p h i l bdi cac y l u t i ty nhien cung nhy xa hpi chd khdng phai la nhdng hdnh ddng x u i t phat t d sy lya chpn ly ciia ca nhan D i n g thdi, Quetelet cung chc rang, d i i tygng nghien cdu cua xa hgi hpc la xa hpi ndi chung, phai nghien cdu xa hdi nhy mpt thyc t h i t y than vl mdt tap hgp ngydi, mpt nhdm xa hgi cd mdt can tlnh rieng, va cdi can tlnh mang tlnh qui ludt vd i n djnh, cdn ca nhan thi khdng cd b i t c d anh hygng ndo tren nhdm vi nhdng dgc tryng ciJa ca nhdn mang tlnh khdng i n TAP CHi KHOA HOC XA Hpl so (198) 2015 djnh va khdng t h i tidn doan dugc Theo dng "Cai gdn vdi xa hdi loai ngydi dygc nhin nhdn nhu mot q u i n the - dd la trat t y cua cdc s y kidn vat iy; s l lygng ngydi eang Idn, y chi ciia cd nhan cang bj xda nhda va bj chi phii bdi mpt logt cdc s y kipn chung (fgits generaux), ma nhdng s y kien chung phu thupc vap cac nguyen nhan chung vd xa hpl t i n tgl theo nhdng s y kien chung i y Dp dp, c i n phgi n i m b i t dugc cdc nguyen nhan chung va ngydi ta bilt dygc ehung, ngudi ta se xae djnh dugc nhdng tac dpng ciia cac nguyen nhan i y d i i vdi xa hpl, giing nhy viec xdc djnh nhan-qua nganh vdt ly" (A Quetelet, 1833, tr 80-81) Ong thda nhgn ca nhdn ed mdt sdc mgnh tinh thdn cd khg ndng thay d i i cac qui lugt chi phii ca nhan, nhyng sdc mgnh ay chi cd anh hygng rit chdm chgp QUAN D | M V £ "CON NGU'O'I TRUNG BlNH" Cd t h i ndi ten t u l i ciJa Quetelet g i n liin vdi ly thuyit v l "con ngydi trung binh" (I'homme moyen/average man), bdi toan bd nhdng nghien cdu cua dng v l cac v i n d l xa hdi deu dugc xdy dyng tren ly thuydt Theo dng, ngydi trung binh la ngydi cd toan bp nhyng ddc trung trung binh - theo nghia thing ke cua t i t ca cdc ca nhan xa hpl va la ngydi binh thydng Con ngydi trung binh cung Id ngydi hgp chuin (conforme) nhdng ca nhan nam each xa "con ngudi trung binh" cd t h i dygc xem nhu nhdng ngygi Ipch Igc (deviant) VI vgy vdi dng, ngydi trung binh Id chile chia khda d l phdn tich thing ke cac hipn tygng xa hpi Ong quan nipm ngudi trung binh xa hdi cung giing nhy trpng tam cua eg t h i , mpi hipn tugng xa hpi se biln chuyin xung quanh gid trj trung binh, vgy budc di d i u tien mpi nghidn cdu la c i n phai xdc djnh ccn ngydi trung binh ca v l mgt t h i ly cung nhu ve mat luan 1^ Vide Iydng ngudi trung binh v l mdt t h i ly dygc t i l n hanh dya trdn chilu cao va can ndng ngi tdng ngydi, ciig mot quIc gia ndo dd, sau ta se cd dygc gia trj trung binh, tde ngudi trung binh ciia q u i c gia i y Bing each dd ta cd the ndi ngydi Anh cao Idn han ngydi Phdp va ngudi Italia D i i vdi mpt s i y l u t l khac nhu t u l i thp trung binh thi chiing ta se diing cac thude dc phi vgt chit (mesures non materielles), cu t h i Id thdi gian Ben canh dd, chiing ta Igi cd nhyng thydc qui yde (mesures de convention) d l ludng cdc y l u t l nhu sy giau cd, v i n d l san x u i t hay tieu dOng Tuy nhien, cd nhdng y l u t i g i n vdi Hinh Phan phii chudn s l vOng ngue ciia cac binh sT phan phoi chuan ir 1^ 33 54 33 S6 37 38 59 « 41 42 45 44 45 46 47 48 VDiig i)yu%(liidie^ Ngu6n: http://www.britannica.com/EBchecke d/topic/418227/normal-distribution L E M I N H T I E N - ADOLPHE QUETELET V A N H C T N G B O N G G O P ngydi ma ta khdng the ludng trye tilp dygc ma phai qua nhyng k i t qua (par leurs effets), chang han nhy sdc mgnh cua mpt ngygl ngp dd Chung ta hoan toan ed the ndi ngygl ndy mgnh g i p hgi l i n ngygl kig bing each dya vao lye tac ddng cua hp tren mpt vdt nao dd Ong da dp dung each tinh trdn mdt m i u g I m khoang 5.732 binh si ngudi Scotland, vd k i t qua nhy Hinh Nhin vdo hinh phan phii chuin nhy trdn, Chung ta d l dang nhan thiy Quetelet dd dp dpng qui lugt phan phii chuin cua nha thing ke hpc ngydi Ddc Id C F Gauss, bdi Quetelet tin rang mpi kha nang the ly, tlnh than hpgc xa hpl cua cd nhdn (tri thdng minh, ehilu cao, can ngng ) d i u biln doi theo qui lugt phdn phii chuin Nhyng d i l u cdn lyu y Id mac dii "con ngudi trung binh" dygc Quetelet ndi d i n khong thude logi trung binh s l hpc (la moyenne arithmetrique): trung binh s l hpc khdng phai la mgt s y thyc (la reallte) ma la k i t qua cua mpt phep tlnh todn hpc Chang hgn ta tinh chilu cap trung binh cua eac ngdi nha tai mdt khu vyc ndo dd bang each l i y cpng chidu cap cua tdng ngdi nhd lai va chia cho t i n g s i ngdi nha, ta cd dygc gia trj trung binh s i hpc, trpng ngygi trung binh la mpt thyc t h i tudng tugng (un dtre fictif), mpt Ipgi trpng tam ma cac y l u t i xa hdi dap dpng d xung quanh nd QUAN D I S M v e "THieN H U ^ N G TQI PHAM" N I U nhin lgi nhdng nghien cdu v l tdi pham the ky XIX, chung ta d l nhdn t h i y la r i t nhilu nha nghien cdu ma dgc bipt la trydng phai tdi phgm hpc Italia vdi nhdng ten tuoi nhy Lombroso, Garofalo, Fern thudng tdp trung nghidn cdu tiln trinh trd tdi pham cua cd nhan (le passage a I'acte), tde chi tdp trung nghien cdu "con ngydi tdi phgm" (criminels) vdi nhdng khac biet so vdi nhdng ngydi binh thudng xet v l mgt c i u true ca t h i , gen dl truyin Trong dd, Quetelet lai xem tgi phgm nhy mgt hien tygng xd hpi giing nhu cac hien tygng khde nhy hdn nhan, sinh de, ty tu vd phai nghien cdu tdi pham dya tren t i n s u i t vd s y phan phii (la dlstributipn) cua tdi phgm, tde mpt hien tygng dgi chung (un phdnomene de masse) V l s y phdn phii cua tdi phgm, dya thep dydng phdn phii chuan ciia Gauss (phan p h i i theo hinh qua ehudng), Quetelet cho ring xa hpi, khuynh hudng b i t tuan ludt phdp la met "kha nang" (la faculte) cua ngydi gilng nhy mpi kha nang khac va ta cd t h i tim t h i y kha nang i y ngi mgi ca nhan Ddc biet, dng da dimg 111 tilp can ngydi trung binh cua minh dd tlm hllu "thidn hygng tgi pham" (le penchant au crime) xa hdi vd phan tich nhdng y l u t l anh hydng d i n cai thien hudng dd ehd khdng tap trung tlm hllu nhdng ddc tryng cua ca nhan cua nhdng ngydi tdi phgm, bdi vl dng cho rang, tdi pham tudn theo mpt qui ludt nhit djnh nap dd va bj chi p h i i bdi cdc y l u t l xa hpi nam ben ngoai ca nhan Va xdc djnh dygc cac qui ludt dya tren d d lieu cua qud khd, nha nghidn cdu se d y doan dygc tyang lai ciia hien tygng tdi pham Khi ndi d i n thidn hudng tpi phgm, tde la ndi d i n xdc suit cac hay t h i p vide thyc hipn hanh vi tpi pham nai ngydi d JAP CHi KHOA HOC XA Hpl so2 (198) 2015 nhdng hodn canh, eg hdi vd phygng tlen gilng Va dyg trdn dydng cong phdn p h i i chuin (dang hinh chuong nhu hinh ben trdn), Quetelet cho rang cd 15% dan s l cd thien hydng tdi pham mgnh ( n i m bdn phai cila phdn phil) va 15% cd thien hydng tgi pham y l u (nim bdn trai ciJa phdn phii), cdn Igi Id 70% cd thidn hydng tdl pham trung binh, vd day la mdt nhdng dgc trung cug ngydi trung binh (Pires, 1994, tr 13-14) Quetelet de minh hpa cdeh xae djnh thien hydng tpi phgm ndi chung b i n g cgc dy lipu thing ke tgi Phap trpng thdi gian b i n nam liin k l vdi nam 1830 nhu Bang Nhin vap bang trdn cd t h i t h i y binh qudn mdi nam tgi Phap cd khoang 7.171 ca nhdn id bi cao cua cdc loai tdi pham, vd cd 4.463 ngydi dan thi cd bj cao, vd cd 100 bj cao thi cd trung binh Id 61 ngudi bi k i t tgi Nhin chung s i bj cap va s l bj k i t tdi ciJa cdc nam d i u xoay quanh gid tri trung binh, nhy vgy ta hodn todn cd t h i dy bdo dygc tinh trgng tdi phgm cho cac nam sau Sau xde djnh dygc thien hydng tpi phgm, Quetelet t i l n hanh phan tich s y tac dpng cua cac y l u t l nhu hpc vdn mua, hau, gidi tinh va t u l i tac d i i vdi thien hydng tpi phgm cung bang each dya vao cac dd lieu thing ke chinh thdc Trong s l cac y l u t l tac dpng i y , y l u t l tuoi tac la y l u t i cd tac dpng mgnh nhit, bdi s y phdt triln v l the c h i t i d ndng lygng cua ngydi di cung vdi tuli tac ciia hp Thidn hydng tpi pham dgt d i n mde t i l da ngydi d vdo dp tuli sung man vd the c h i t vd cd nhilu dam me luan ly vd nhdn thdc chua du mgnh d l c h i ngy chung Cg t h i la thien hydng tpi pham dgt d i n mde t i l da vao dp t u l i 25-30 va sau dd giam d i n ngydi cd nhilu tuii hgn, vl nhidu tuli hgn thi t h i lye, dam me cua ngydi giam nhdn thdc va luan ly Igi tang cao Y l u t l gidi tinh cung cd anh hudng ddn thien hudng tgi phgm vl s l lieu thing kd cho thiy cd cd nghi can Id nam thi mdi cd nghi can Id nd vd thien hudng tpi phgm nai nd gidl dgt d i n mde t i l da cung diln mudn han nam gidi (thien hudng tdi phgm t i l dg nai nd gidi diln d tuli 30, nam gidi Id d dp t u i i 25) Dilu ddc biet la qua cde s l lieu thing ke, Quetelet k i t lugn ring ngheo ddi khdng phai Id y l u t i dan d i n tdl phgm, bdi nhdng khu vyc ngheo tai Phap va Ha Lan lgi Id nhdng Bang So lipu v l tpi phgm tgi Phdp bin nam tryde 1830 Nam So bi edo So b| ket tOi So ddn trdn So bi kel tOi bi edo tren 100 bi edo Bi edo cdc tOi lien quan Con ngydi Tdi san Moi quan hp giOa hai loai b| ego 1826 6.988 348 4.557 62 1.907 5.081 2,7 1827 6.929 4.236 4.593 61 1.911 5.018 2,6 1828 7.396 4.551 4.307 61 1.844 5,552 3,0 1829 7.373 4,475 4.321 61 1,791 5.582 3,1 Chung 28.686 17.610 4.463 61 7.453 21.233 2,8 Nguin: Qudtelet, 1833, tr 22 L E M I N H T I E N - ADOLPHE QUETELET VA N H O N G BONG G P khu vyc cd It tpi phgm hgn nhdng khu vyc giau cd (Quetelet, 1833, tr 44) Mac du cac ky thugt phan tich thing ke cua Quetelet khdng cdn nhilu gia trj so vdi cac thudt toan thing ke hidn dai nay, nhyng i l l phan tich hien tygng xa hpi dya tren cdc s l lieu thing kd va glai thich hien tugng i y bang nhung y l u t l phi sinh hpc, phi tam ly cua dng da anh hudng nhilu d i n nghien cdu cua nhd xa hpi hpc Phap £mile Durkheim, dgc bipt Id cpng trinh nghidn cdu v l hien tygng t y t y Va vipc tlm k i i m cac qui luat cua hipn tygng xd hdi, theo quan nidm cua Quetelet van cdn gia trj chc nghien cdu xa hdi hgc ngdy a TAI LIEU TRiCH DAN Pires, A 1994 La criminaliti enjeux epistemoiogiques, thioriques et ethiques, in Fernand Dumont, Simon Langlois et Yves Martin, Traiti Pes problemes sociaux Montrdal: Institut quebdcois de recherche sur la culture, pp 247-277 Quetelet, A 1833 Rechemhes surle penchant au crime aux diffirens ages, Bruxelles: M Hayez, Imprimeur de I'academie royale ...LE MINH TlgN - ADOLPHE QUETELET VA NHLTNG BONG GOP dng dung cdc phygng phap toan xdc suit nhdm kiem seat cac sai... Ngu6n: http://www.britannica.com/EBchecke d/topic/418227/normal-distribution L E M I N H T I E N - ADOLPHE QUETELET V A N H C T N G B O N G G O P ngydi ma ta khdng the ludng trye tilp dygc ma phai... nhdng khac biet so vdi nhdng ngydi binh thudng xet v l mgt c i u true ca t h i , gen dl truyin Trong dd, Quetelet lai xem tgi phgm nhy mgt hien tygng xd hpi giing nhu cac hien tygng khde nhy