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1^' ^ ^ JOURNAL OF SCIENCE OF HNUE Social Sci 2016, Vol 61 No 2, pp, 123-134 This paper is available online at hnp://stdb.hnue.edu.vn DO! 10.18173/2354-1067 20! 6-0019 GIA TANG DAN SO CO HOC VA DI CU THANH P H HA NQI: XU H U N G VA NHITNG TAC DONG KINH Tfe - XA HOI D6 Thj Minh Dflc Khoa Dia li Tnfdng Dgi hpc Su phgm Hd Not Tom tat Gia lang cd hpc hien da chilm hdn 2/5 ngubn gia tang dan sb cua phb b mgt so quan, huyen da chiem tren 7/10 gia lang dan so chung, Trong lam khbng gian cua gia iang dan so cd hoc da chuyen dich dan phia ngoai Ihanh srf mb rbng dia ban thi hba va phal trien cac khu cbng nghiep Nhflng xu hrfbng mbi ttong di crf noi tinh lien quan manh me vbi srf ihay dbi cdu true khbng gian db Ihi Hd Nbi Nhrfng xu hrfbng mbi ttong nhap crf ngoai tinh lien quan den nhflng srf phal Irien iang (be vl Ihi hba va cbng nghiep hba Di crf gbp phdn cai thicn cdu iruc lubi - gibi linh cua dan so, thtic day db thj hba va cbng nghiep hba, nhal la phdn phia tay va lay nam ciia pho, iang crfbng ngubn nhan lrfc va lai chfnh cho srf phat trien kinh te - xa hoi nhrfng cung lam nong them cdc vdn dl irong quan li db Ihi Tif kheia: Gia lang cd hoc, di crf, lac dgng kmh il - xahoi, Ha Noi Md dau Thu dd Hd Ndi, mbt hai Ibn nhdt ca nfldc vbi trieu dan, da va dang ihu hut manh ngflbi nhdp crf Cdc ludng chuyen crf lao nen sfl gia ldng cd hgc cua dan sb, mdt ngudn quan trgng cua gia tdng dan so, nhat Id b cdc qudn ndi ihanh vd cdc xd ven db Gia tdng cb hgc gdn liln vdi sfl phat trien kinh le - xd hbi cua thdnh phd, trfdng quan ve pbat tnen vdi cac tinh khac ed nfldc, ddc bift Id vdi trung du Bde Bd, Ddng bang sdng Hbng va Bac Trung Bd Di cfl d Ha Ndi gan Iiln vbi qua trinh cdng nghifp hda va dd thj hda Vi the, ludng nhdp cfl ngoai tinh ddng vai trd quan trgng Ngflbi nhdp crf vfla gdp them ngudn Irfc cho srf phdt trie'n kinh te - xd hdi cua thdnh phd, vfla cao nhflng vdn de mbi qudn tf Idnh thd Gan too ndm trflbc (ndm 1918), thdnh phd chi cd 70 nghin ddn, den sau dat nrfbc thong nhat da thdnh mdt chum dd tbj trieu dan (gom dd thj crung tdm, cdc db thi vf tinh va vung ndng thdn ngoai thdnh), va Id chum dd thj khoang trieu dan Ha Nbi da Ihrfc srf Id mdt "sieu dd Ihj" xet cd vl khia canh ddn so vd sfl tap Irung kinh te, cac gid ttj vdn hda, khoa hoc, gido due Theo Dfl bdo dan so Ha Ndi cua Tong cue Thdng ke dfla tren kei qua Tbng dieu tra dan sd ndm 2009, thi ddn so Ha Nbi se cham ngfldng trieu vdo ndm 2026 [9] Trong bai bao nay, chung tbi tdp trung phdn tich ve cac xu hfldng cua gia tdng ddn so cb hoc cung nhrf eua cde ludng di crf tren dja bdn Ha Ndi tfl ddu thdp nien 1990 trd lai ddy, nhflng tdc dgng eua chung ten sfl phat trien kinh tl - xa hdi eua phd Ngaynhanbai; LS/7/20i5 Ngay nhan dang- IO/I/20I6 Lien he Do Thi Minh Ditc, c-mail; doihiminlniuc@gmail com Do Thi Minh Dflc li^l''^"! Noi dung nghien cihi '-ciN*'''! 2.1 Gia tang dan so cd hoc oi Ha Noi Theo quy luat chung, cd mflc gia ldng dan sd cao hdn mflc trung binh ea nrfbc, kel qud la ti le ddn so Chanh thj td'ng dan so tang ten Dieu c6 drfdc nhb phan quan (rong cua gia tdng cd hoc, nhat la dilu kien mflc sinh b khu vflc lhanli ihi thrfbng ihap hdn so vdi vung ndng thdn Thdnh phd Ibn vd rat tdn (sieu db thi) eb sflc hut Idn ddi vbi ngrfdi nhap crf, lam cho mflc gia ldng cd hgc cao Thbi ki lfl cuoi nam 1991 (sau HdNdi thay ddi dia gidi hdnh chmh) cho den nam 2007, gia tang dan so bien ddng khdng d'n djnh, cd nam tren 3% mdt nam (1999 2000i lai eo nam drfbi 2%/nam (2005, 2006) Hien It sudt gia tang ddn sd tfl 2,2 - 2,5%/nam Gia lang dan so tfl nhien (GTTN) d Ha Ndi khd thap; thdi ki thdp nhat (1999-2002) chi khodng 1,08%; nhflng nam sau dd dao ddng quanh mflc 1.2% Thbi gian gan ddy, GTTN cd phan t d n g n h e ( n a m 2 I a 1,54%, ndm 2013 Id 1,33%) Bdng I Gia tdng ddn sd trung binh ndm 2000phdn Gia tang diins6{%) Gia tdng tit nbien Toan TP Noi Ngoai thiinh Tronfi Hty Q Tay H6 Q Thanh Xuan Q Cau Giiy Til Liem 1,60 2,02 1,37 1,96 3,29 5,95 3,11 theo qudn Trong huyen Phan cila GTCH t m n g gia tiing dan so Gia lang ctf hoc (%) 1,09 0.99 1,19 0,96 1,08 1,02 1,11 (Tinh teidn lif so lieu cua (%) 0,52 1,03 0,17 32.21 50.81 12 78 1,00 50.88 2,22 67.31 82.84 4,93 2,00 64.28 Niin gidm ihom; k
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