phương pháp ước lượng dân số theo độ tuổi

or.il.i) Phirong phap ircic lUtfng dan ih M'f^ Phtfvng phap vdc lirvng dan so theo ^ tuoi lis D A N S6 C H A T H E O N H M T U I Tran Triel Tim' Thdng ttiudng s i lieu din s i dddc cung cip dddi dgng tmh ehung eho mdt nhdm ttjdl, phd biln l i phudng frlnh hdi quy) d l phdn Uch din s i eda mgt nhim tudi thinh din s i cda ttng d i tudi nhdm gdm dd ttdi vdi dd u i i bit diu Id 0, 5, - PhUdng phip san bing: Id phddng phdp ddn 10, Trong vide nghldn edu ddn sd, nhu ciu tmh gidn nhit vdi quan dilm Id m i l nhim ttil thi todn edc ehl ttdu cd Hen quan din ttng tudi cda ddn s i Id c i thgc VI dg: din s i ehia theo ttlng d i Udl, hoic din s i cua mdt nhdm tudi die ttimg ndo d i (nhu ddn s i frdng d i ttjdi hgc cda ttng cip hgc) Tfl idu nay, frgng qud trinh tmh todn, cdc nhd nghiln cdu, ting hgp eung da ed nhflng phuong phdp thfch hgp d l ddp dng nhu clu frdn Tuy nhldn cdc phudng phdp ttiudng khdng dugc frinh bdy cu ttil vd mie nhldn bd qua cdc sal s i idn phdt sinh ttIn hdnh nil suy din s i phin b i diu cho c i c dp tudi VI dg din s i eda nhdm ttdl 10-14 l i 1000 ngudl thi ddn s i 10 tuii Id 1000/5=200 ngudl, ddn s i cic d i ttil 11, 12,13,14 U i i cdng bing nhu ttie - Phuong phip ddng phddng ttinh hii quy: Phddng phdp ndy cd y Udng chd ylu id sU ttiay dll s i ddn thed tdng d i tudi cda ddn s i diu ttin theo nhdng diln blln mang Unh chit ttin t l , lidn tuc Thfle t l c i t h i cho ttiiy sd lugng din s i khing ddt ngdt Uiay ddl tai m i t dd t u i l nid dd m i ed gii frj PhUdng phdp dugc gidl thidu frong bdi vilt ndy tdng gidm khd lidn tge U d i tuii niy din dd ttil ttip Id m i t cdch thdc d l udc lugng (ngl suy) gii tri cda Uieo Do dd ude lugng din s i eho ttmg dd ttol cde nhim ttil thdnh g i i frj eda tdng d i tuoi eg thi cda m i l nhdm tudi ein phii dilu chmh eho ddn Bdy Id phudng phdp duge tdc gid bdl vilt sdng tao vd s i cda cic d i tudi bidn eda m i l nhim tudi phii blln sd dung nhilu ndm qua Qua ttiuc t l cho thiy ddl Hdn tgc so vdl d i n s i cda c i c dd U i l bidn cda phudng phip dd chd nhdng kit qui t i t vd sal s i nhdm tuii liln k l khing ddng k l Khii qudt ve phifdhg phdp udc l u ^ g : Trong bdi vilt ndy se d l xuit phuong phdp Phddng phdp ndy ehl dp dung dddc eho nhflng nhdm Udl cd ding ttidl nhdm Udl lin cin frdde v i sau (Phuong phdp san bing vd Phudng phdp dung • Ph6ng Thong ke DSn so - Van xa, Cyc Th^ng ke Da Nlng BEI^BSI ., Nghien cdu - Trao ddi Phiftfng phap tftfc lifl/ng dSti so , Phddng phdp san bdng n0i suy ddn s6 Phuong phip ddng phuong frlnh hii qui cCia tdng d$ tu6i bdng tdng nhdm; nil suy din sd cda tdng dd tudi cd lidn hd vdi dd the hi$n sd chfinh l?ch rat rd cdc dg tudi Idn can; do biln dgng rat "mem mai" tt tudi sang dg tuoi khdc ^ S Theo dd, d l udc lugng ddn so theo dg u d l td Budng niy gidi hgn nhdm tudi (dang din s i cua m i t nhim Udl, c i n phii Idu y din din dugc ttnh toin d l udc lugng - nim tai vj frl gifla) se s i cua nhdm tudi Idn can Nhu vdy d l udc lugng the hien xu hudng biln 'ddl din s i eda ttng dg tuii din s i ttieo dd Udl eda nhim U i i thi cin phii sd frong nhdm tuil dd dgng cung ldc nhdm tudi Sau dd xic dinh dilm ed cdc ylu t i tmng binh eda nhim tudi Cic dilm niy gom gii trj sau: Cdn cd vdo loai dddng h i i quy sfl dung md sd ed phudng phdp: phudng phdp dung hdm U y i n ttnh vd phuong phdp ddng h i m bic (dudng (1) B i u i l gida cfla nhim u i l : Vi dg: vdl nhim u i l td 5-9 u d l ttil d i ttil gifla id 7; nhdm Udl 1-4 sdcddd tuii gida Id 2.5 parabol) 2, K f t h u i t t h v c h i g n (2) Ddn s i binh qudn cda d i ttil frong - Udc Idi^g bing phitmig phip san bing: nhim U i i : bing din s i cda nhdm tudi chia ehd Udc lugng bing phuong phip san bing se eho s i khding cdch ttil eda nhdm tuoi Vf dg: nhdm tuoi tt 5-9 ttil ed 10 ngddi thi m i l d i U i l binh qudn c i Hdu din s i tdng d i tuii frong m i l nhdm, m i l nhim thi din s i bing vdi cdc dg tudi 10/5=2 ngudl; nhdm Udi 1-4 cd 10 ngudl thi m i l d i tudi bmh qudn sd cd 10/4=2.5 ngddi Sd dgng bilu d i d l md Id vdi true hoinh l i ttdi v i true Ung l i s i din Nlu ttil hien trln bilu d i ttil dd U i i gida cfla nhdm tudi ttil hien trln tnic hddnh (gii trj / ) , c i n PhUdng phdp rat don gidn l i liy ddn so eua nhdm ttil chia cho khoing cich tuoi cua nhim d i • Udc lugng bing phifdng phdp dilng hdm tuyen tfnh: Phuong phip niy sd ttm him h i i quy UyIn tmh m i t i dudng Uiing dl qua dilm Cic din s i binh quin eda nhdm U i i ttil hign frdn frue dudng niy gidl hgn frong nhim tuil (dang dugc Ung (gii trj y) ttnh toin d l udc lugng - n i m tgi vj tri gida) sd t h i Tilp fried l i xic djnh dudng h i i quy di qua dilm frdn hidn xu hudng blln d i l ddn s i cda ttng tudi frong nhdm t u i : iii Nghien cdu-Trao ddl; diy dudng ttiing chda ttil hidn din si ddc Idgng cua mil di Udl md chi mdi thi hidn xu hudng blln ddl ddn si cda tflng di Uil Bdl tdng si ddn sdttongflng(y) vdl mil dd tudi (x)frongnhim ttdl ttnh tt him hdi quy ndy se khde ddn si eda cd nhim Uii da ei Bl udc lugng ddn si ehettngdd ttdl md khdng lim ttiay ddl din si cda ci nhdm tudi, cin phii ttnh Igi din si bing cich nhin cdc din si ttiu duge tt him hii quy vdl mgt ty Id Ty Id niy dugc tmh bing din si cda ci nhdm tuil dd cd chia cho tdng si din so ttnh bing him hii quy Udngflngvdl tit ci di tudifrongnhdm Uil Phirtfng phap Hdc lUtfng ddn so Bilu ndy khing hgp ly Dc dd can phdi chd y nlu qud trinh dp dgng phuang phdp ndy cho mit nhim ttil md xuit hidn cdc gid frj dm (cho dd uil) thi phdi cd bign phdp khic phgc Uilch hgp bing cich chuyin sang phuong phip san bing hay phuong phdp dung him tuyIn tmh (cd ttil Unh rilng cho nhdm tuoi bjfrudnghgp niy) * Nhdm tuoi diu tiln vd nhdm tuil cuoi cdng Nhdm tuil diu Udn Nhdm tuil diu ttdn dupe i^nh nghia li mdt nhdm Uil (cd It nhit d i tudi) bit diu tt ttdi Nhu viy nhdm tudi niy khdng ed nhim tudi lin cin • Udc lugng bing phumg phip ddng hdm phiafrude.Do di cic phudng phip ddng him ttyen bic 2: Phuong phip niy sd Um mdt him hii quy mi ttnh hddc dimg hdm bdc diu khing thgc hlin td mdt dudng cong bic dl qua dilmfrdn.Dddng ddgc Cdng ndy gidl hgnfrongnhdm ttol (dang dupe ttnh todn dl ude lugng - nim tai vj tri gida) sd thi Trong frudng hpp niy, ci thi gii lip met hidn xu hudng blln ddl din sd eda «mg dd tudi frong nhdm tudi chi cd di ttil vd din si bing din so nhdm tudi dd binh quin di tuil cfla nhim tuil diuttdn;sd dung d ddy dudng cdng chua ttil hiln din si ude IUdng cda mil di u i l mi ehl mdi ttil hidn xu hudng blln ddl ddn si cda tdng di tuil Bdl ting so gid trj Udng dng ly) vdl mil d i Uii (ir) frdng nhim ttil tmh tfl hdm nil quy ndy se khde din si eda ei nhdm tudi di cd Bl ude lugng din so cho ttng di ttdl mi khdng lim ttiay ddl din si eua ci nhim ttdl, ein phii nhin cic gid frj ttiu dupe tt him hii quy vdl mit ty Id Ty Id niy dupe t'nh bing din si cda ei nhdm ttdi di ci chia cho ting si gii trj tnh bing him hoi quyttdngdng vdi tit ei di Uil frong nhim tudi Vide sd dgng him bic cd mit uu dilm li nhdm tuil gii lip niy lim cin dudi Nhim tudi cuii cund Nhdm tuil cudi edngttiudngli nhim tudi md VI dg nhim Uil 85-1- (nghia l i nhdng ngddi tt 85 tuil trd lln) Nhdm ttdl niy khdng cd lin ein phia sau vd cdng khdng ei khddng cich tuii eg ttie Nhdm tudi tnidc cd nhim tuil cudi cdng (ttong flng vdi vl dufrdnli nhim ttil 80-84) cdng bj inh hudng vl nhdm ttil ttIp theo (li nhim till euil cdng) khing ei khoing cich tuii Cd thi sfl dung cic cich Oide sau, hoic kit hgp nhilu cich thfle dl khic phgc cic vin dl frdn: luin luin xic iJnh dupe mit dddng parabol di qua Nlu khoing cdch Uil cda cdc nhim nhu nhauttilcl diem vdl R^=1 (frong vilfrudnghgp die bidt sd l i ttil gid djnh nhdm Uil euil edng ed cdng khodng mit dudngttiing).Tuy nhien ddng phddng phip niy cdch; Nhdm ttol cuii Id nhim ttil md nln se glO sd ci mit hgn ehl Id dil ldc xuit hidn edc gidfrjdm nguyin vd khing udc lugng thdnh tdng di ttdl; Nghien cdu-Traodoi ^ t f t f n g phap ifcfe liftfng dan so 3, Sal so fli chmh xic eda ude lupng bing cic phuong phdp da neu cd ttil bing cdc gidfrisau: (1),0d lech tuygt dil fid Idch dugc hllu Id hi|u si gida ddn si ddc lugng eda mdt udl vdl ddn si ttigc cda di Udl dd vd ddgc Unhttiencing thfle (1) fid Idch Uyet dil eda di ttdi = ll^lli y (1) Vdi p Id ddn si ddc lugng cda di tuii, y Id din si ttiuc eua di Uii Bd Idch tuyet dil l i mit ty Id mi t i sai si ude lugng cho tdng di tuil eg thi Nlu di Idch tuydt dil cing gin tdi ttil ddc lupng din si cho dd tudi cdng sdt vdi dan si ttiflc tl VI dg dd Idch Uydt ddl eua dd Uii / Id 0.5 Bilu di ed nghia Id ty Id sal Idch Luu y l i gii frj niy ei thi tnh khing ehl eho toin bi ddn si md cd the chd mit nhim ddn si Dd lech Uydt dii binh qudn Id mit chi si ting hgp phdn dnh sal so chung cda toin bd din si frong qui frlnh nil suy Chi si niy khdng phin dnh mdc di sal lich cda tdng di tudi Bd lech Uyet dii binh qudn phdn dnh sal si tmng binh xuit hign udc lugng din si cua mdt di udl VI dg dd Ideh tuylt dii bmh quin bing 0,1 ei nghfa Id cd ddn vj ddn si udc lugng duge se chdnh lich frong khodng 0.1 ddn vj ddn sd sd vdl ttide tl; vd nlu din si udc lugng cho di Udl x (bit ky) Id 100,ttilfrongthgc td din sd cda dd Uil x sd dao dingfrongkhoing 100 ± (100 x 0.1); Uc Id tt 90 din 110 Nhd viy di Idch Uy|t dii bmh quin cing nhi ttil cic die lupng cdng khd gin vdl ttiuc tl gifla si ddc lugng sd vdi si thgc t l cda di u i i x Id Cd ehl si ndi frIn chi sd dgng dl ttm hllu chit Idgng cda edc phddng phdp ddc Idgng Bdl chi ei ttil ttnh edc chi sifrenkhi dd ed din si thgc cda Bi Ideh Uyet dil ehlttnhchd ttng d i ttil nen ttng di udl - li dilu mi trongttiuct lttiudngkhdng khdng phdn dnh chit Idgng chung ddc Idgng cho dipflngdugc todn ddn si Trongfrddnghgp cin ddnh gid chit lupng ehung phdl sd dgng di l|ch ttydt dil bmh Khio sdtttigct l nhim ludng dd chmh xdc qudn cda cdc phddng phdp chd ttiiy: Phddng phdp san 1.5 lin (2) Dg l$Gh tuygt doi binh quin Dd qudttinhnil suy bio toin duge ting din si cho mil nhdm Uil nln ting dd Igch gida din si thgc vi din si udc lugng si bing Dc viy dl dd ludng dd lich binh quin phiittnhfrencd sd ting gii frj ttylt dil eda edc dd Idch nhu cingttide(2) B i lech Uydt dil binh qudn ^ Z l Z Z Z l (2) Vdi y Id din si Udc lugng cda di Udl, y li din si ttiflc cda di tuil bing cho ude lugng vdl dd Idch tuyet dii binh qudn Idn nhit PhUdng phdp ddng him bic trcng phin Idnfrddnghgp ei dg Ideh tuygt dil bmh quin thip hdn phudng phip ddng him Uyen ttnh Blln ddng din si ttieo Uil (ttigc) gifla cic Uil, nhim tudi cing kdm in djnh ttil di Ifch Uylt dil binh qudn edng Idn Khdo sit ttiuc t l cho thiy di l|eh Uyet ddl bmh qudnttnhbing phudng phdp dung hdm hdi quy se nim frong cdc gid frj sau dil vdl cdcttnhfrgng ddn sd nhu: 19 Phirong phap uo^c liftfng ddn so ,7 Nghien cdu-Trao doi' 4,Vfdu - Ddn s i i n djnh It bj dnh hddng d i t biln qud khd: 0.03 - 0.07 Trdng phin niy sd liy vl dg id ddn sd 5-19 - Dan s i chju dnh hudng dot blln nhu dl cU, tudi cda fld Ning theo Ting dieu tta ddn sd chiln franh, dieh benh, tai mdt giai doan ngin ndo 1/4/2009 Cl ddy din so dupc g i p ttidnh nhdm dd frong qud khd: 0.05-0.12 tudi Tiep ttieo sd tiln hdnh udc lupng ddn sd cda - Ddn s i kdm on dinh trdng qud khd vd hidn tdng d i ttdl tttee phddng phdp Din so ttieo cic nhdm U i l vdl khoing cich nay: 0.08 - 0.25 - Bg Igch tuygt d i i cda tdng dg tuoi tdng ttieo khodng cdeh tuii eda nhdm ttil VI du m i t nhim ttil eho dugc eho bdng dddi diy v i ttil hl$n frdn bilu d i nhu sau: So tuil vdi khodng cdch id 10 tuoi thi suy ring sd c i lech Uyet d i l eao hon nlu suy ring eho mdt nhdm full cd khodng cich ttil Id 5; Nhdm ngudi (1000 tuoi ngudi) - Sal sd cda tdng d i tuil tang ty Ig nghjeh vdl ddn so theo tuil (thgc) VI du ddl vdl m i t din s i trd Uil udc lUdng ddn s i cho ttng Udl, dd Ideh 62.26 5-9 '10-14" ^5.8^4 15-19 101.00 Uydt d i i eua nhflng dd ttdi frd se thip hdn so vdl nhdng tuii g i i ; Viec ndi suy ddn so cho tdng tu6i se dd^c tien hdnh trgn ddn s6 chia theo nhdm tuoi ndi tr^n Tuoi 10 11 12 13 So ngudl (1000 ngudi) 12.45 12.45 12,45 12.45 , 1245 13,17 13.17 ] 13.17 13/I7J 14 13.17 15 20.20 16 20.20 17 18 19 20.20 20.20 20.20 (1) Udc lugng hing phuvng phdp san bing Viec n i l suy cic d i ttil bing phUdng phip san bing eho k i t qud Id din s i Cda m i l dd tuil frong m i t nhim ttil sd bing -Nghien cdu,Trao d l l ; Plitfrfng phap irtte luyng dan so , (2) Udc lufng bing phuvng phdp ddng ham PhUdng ttinh dudng thing dl qua dilm cd dang nhu sau: hdi quy y^a B l Udc lugng d i n s i ttieo dd tuii cho nhdm tuii 10-14 bing cich dp dgng phudng phdp ddng hdm hdi quy c i n phdi xdc djnh dilm P„, P„ P^ + bx Ap dgng phuong phip binh phudng bd nhit, ehd kit qui dudng ttiing qua dilm Pg, P,: Mil dilm mang gid frj tmng binh eda edc nhim U i i a = 11.442; b = 0.144 Tpa dd cdc dilm nhu sau: Nhdm tudi Bllm X (Uii) y (ddn si) 5-9 ttdl P 12,45 10-14 tuil P, 12 13.17 17 20.20 15-19 tuil Vdl dudng ttiing qua dilm P,, P^: a = - ; b = 1.406 Sau cd dugc cic phUdng ttinh hii quy m i t i cic dudng qua cic dilm, cin phii tmh din so C i loai hdm h i i quy dupe sd dgng: ttng tuoi bing cic phudng trinh ndi trdn, Chu y Id Phdono ohdo ddnd hdm ttvin tmn ting s i din s i tdng dd tuil ttnh td phdong ttlnh sd khdc vdl ting ddn s i cda nhdm Do dd ein phdi ttnh Phddng phdp ndy bit diu bing vide Um mdt he s i dilu chmh dudng thing dl qua ttng diem lidn tie: dudng dl qua dilm P„ vd P„ vd dudng di qua dilm P, vd P, Hi s i dilu cWnh ddgc tnh nhu sau: - Din s i cda nhdm tuii: 65.84 - Ting s i din s i ttieo c i c dp tuii (tmh bing him h i i quy): 69.636 - H i s i dilu chinh : 65.84 0.94549 69.636' Sau d i liy din s i theo ttlng d i tuil ttnh tt phudng frlnh nhin vdl hd s i dilu chinh Kit qui sau edng l i din s i ude lupng eho ttlng d i Be so sinh, din sd timg tfd tudi uSc lugng theo phuong phip san bing Sugc ve bleu Sd di/CtI bing sau: hlnh Sang cic cdt Tuii 10 11 12 13 14 Him hoi quy sd dgng y = 11.442-I-0.144X y =-3.702-I-1.406X Ting s i ttil Toin b i q u i ttinh Unh dupc ttil hien frong Ddn s i tinh bing hdm hdi quy 12.882 13.026 13.17 14.576 15.982 69.636 Dan s i ddc Idgng 12.18 12.32 12.45 13.78 15.11 65.84 PhuWig phap iTOc liftfng dan so Tuoi 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Tilp Uc dp dung phudng phdp ndy vdl cdc nhdm Udi cdn Igl, ket qud So ngudi nhin dUde cho cic nhdm U i l tt din 19 ttol nhu sau: (1000 ngudi) 13.04 12.56 12.08^ 12.22 12.36 12.18 12,32 12.45 13.78 15.11 18.03 19.49 20 95 21.16 21.37 Phudno Phin duno him bic PhUdng phdp ndy bit diu bing vide ttm dudng cong parabol dl qua dilm lidn tgc: P,,, P, vd P, PhUdng ttlnh dudng bic di qua dilm P„, P„ P I nhu sau: y = a + bx + C3^ Ap dung phudng phdp bmh phudng bd nhit, kit qud: a = 22.058; b = -2.2656; c = 0.1263 Sau ed duge cdc phuong frinh hdi quy md td dudng bdc qua dilm, cin phdl ttnh din s i - Tdng s i din s i ttied cdc d i U i l (tnh bing hdm h i i quy): 67.099 tdng dd tuil bing phddng frlnh nil frdn Chd y l i tdng s i din s i ttng d i tuil ttnh tt phddng ttlnh se khie vdl ting din s i cua nhim Do dd ein phii tmh mgt hg s i dieu chmh HI so dilu chmh dugc Unh nhu sau: - Din s i eda nhim Udl: 65.84 - H? s i dilu chinh = ^ ^ = 0.981237 Sau dd liy d i n so ttieo Ulng dd U i l ttnh tt phuong frlnh nhin vdl h i s i dilu chinh Kit qui sau cdng Id ddn s i udc lugng cho tflng d i ttil Toin b i q u i frlnh ttnh dugc Uie hlin frdng bdng sau: vltri^gdanso Tudi 10 11 12 13 14 Hdm hoi quy Sd dgng y = 22.058 - 2.2656X -I- 0.1263x' Ting so ! Tuoi ; 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 So ngudl (1000 ngudi) 12.93 12.66 12.32 12.21 12.23 11.90 12 28 12.92 J 1380; 14.941 18.33 ' 19.51 : 20.44 ' 21.14 ' 21.59^ Din s i ttnh bing hdm hoi quy 12.123 12.519 13.167 14.068 15.222 Din sd Udc lugng 67.099 11.896 12.284 12.920 13.804 14.936 65.64 Ti^p tgc dp dgng phddng phdp ndy vdi cdc nhdm tudi cdn lai, kSt qud nh|n ddpc cho cdc nhdm tuoi td den 19 tuoi nhd sau: So sdnh ddn sd ngl suy ttieo eio phdOng phdp vdl dan s i frong thgc t l frdn bilu dd cho thiy din s i npi suy ttieo phuong phap dung him hii quy cd biln dgng "mIm mgi" hdn vd phin ndo phin dnh xu hudng blln dgng eda din s i thgc t i t hdn nlu so vdi din s i nil suy ttieo phUdng phdp san bing Din so ttigc Tuoi ? 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Sd ngudl (1000 ngudl) 14.26 12.42 11.48 1217 11.94 10.05 1214 1352 14.80 15.34 15.83 16.27 16.51 24.67 2772 Ddn s i ttigc Ddn s i ngl suy ttieo phuong phdp san bing Ddn s i ndi suy ttieo phuong phip ddng him ttyin ttnh Din s i ngi suy ttieo phuong phip ddng him bic Phififng phap Ucfc lifqrng ddn si Nghien cdu-Trao 461 ThiJf nnhlfim vtfi ddn s6 Viet Nam f1/4/20Q9t Tdc gid bdl viet dd sd dgng so li$u ddn sd Vl^t Iddng ddn s6 tdng d$ tuoi td nhdm tudi, Cudi cdng tinh cdc sai s6 doi vdl tdng phuong phdp Vdi nhdm tudi dSu: gid i^p nhdm tuoi cd cDng Nam theo ket qud Tdng di^u tra ddn so vd nhd d 2009 de thd nghifm Cdch thdc thd nghi?m Id: Ddn so chia ddn so vdi nhdm 0-4 tudi Vdi nhdm tudi cudi: gid djnh khodng cdch tudi theo dd tuoi se du^c tdng tv}p thdnh ddn sd chia theo nhdm tuoi Sau sd dung phUdng phap de ddc tudng ty nhd cdc nhdm tuoi trddc vd khdng phan Wch ddn s6 cho cdc tudi cCia nhdm tudi ndy Ddn s6 chia ttieo nhdm tuoi Nhdm tudi 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95+ So ngudl (ngudl) 7034144 6710737 7248378 8963902 8432867 , 7790003 6868158 6531607 5966856 5450928 4412051 2984619 1937948 1554678 1412538 1198893 725985 435772 136134 50799 Bilu dd mft td \f.h\ qud iMb iUOtig Ghi chu: Ddn s6 thdc Ddn so ngi suy theo phudng phdp san bdng Ddn sd ndi suy theo phutmg phdp di^ng hdm tuy^n tfnh Ddn so n$i suy theo phudng phdp dDng hdm b?c Cdc sai sd nhd sau: PhUdng phip san bing D i Igch ttydt d i l cao nhat Dp Igch ttylt d i l binh quin 0.5694 (94 ttdl) 0.0519 Phuong phdp dung hdm ttyIn tmh 0.1930 (65 tuii) 0.0380 PhUdng phap ddng hdm bgc 0.1873 (65 tuii) 0.0372 Kit luin dgng cdc phUdng phdp ddc lugng din so Id mit qud Cic phudng phdp udc lugng ddn s i ttieo dg tuil trinh tmh toin phdc tgp, khii Idpng cing vl|c Idn cd tt mgt nhdm tuil cd ttie sd dgng ddpc nlu chit lugng t h i vilt phin mem chuyen Udc lugng din s i so Hgu tot, khdng b| dnh hudng nhilu bdl cic biln Cin luu y ttigc hign vdl cic nhdm ttdi diu dgng ddt blln trang qui khd v i chip nhin mdt ty I? sai tidn, nhdm tuil sau cung (nhdm U i i md) v i nhdm ttil sd ttung binh dudi 10%; PhUdng phip sd dung hdm frudc nhdm tuii sau cung, bic sai sd nhd hon cde phuong phdp khdc Vlgc dp (Xem Hep trang 3J ... qud iMb iUOtig Ghi chu: Ddn s6 thdc Ddn so ngi suy theo phudng phdp san bdng Ddn sd ndi suy theo phutmg phdp di^ng hdm tuy^n tfnh Ddn so n$i suy theo phudng phdp dDng hdm b?c Cdc sai sd nhd sau:... i liy din s i theo ttlng d i tuil ttnh tt phudng frlnh nhin vdl hd s i dilu chinh Kit qui sau edng l i din s i ude lupng eho ttlng d i Be so sinh, din sd timg tfd tudi uSc lugng theo phuong phip... cd cDng Nam theo ket qud Tdng di^u tra ddn so vd nhd d 2009 de thd nghifm Cdch thdc thd nghi?m Id: Ddn so chia ddn so vdi nhdm 0-4 tudi Vdi nhdm tudi cudi: gid djnh khodng cdch tudi theo dd tuoi