Tap chi Khoa hoc xa hoi mien Trung, So (54) - 2018 ' NHAN TO ANH Hl/CfNG DEN THU NHAP HO GIA DINH KHU VUC NONG THON VEN BIEN HUYEN NtJI THANH, TINH QUANG NAM CHAU NGOC H6EH THI KIM THUY" Tom tat: Thu nhap cua hg gia dinh nong thdn ven bien huyen Nui Thanh chij yeu gan lien vdi hogt dgng kinh tengu nghiep Dddl ap luc cua suy giam nguon Idi thuy san, gid ed bdp binh, rui ro nuoi va khai thdc cang Idn, da anh hUdng ddng ke den thu nhdp eua hg gia dinh SCt dung tiep can dinh lugng, bdi viet Iddng hoa cac nhdn to anh hUdng den thu nhap hg gia dinh khu vtte ndng thdn ven bien huyen Nui Thanh, tinh Quang Nam Ket qua nghien cOii chi rang, cdc nhan to dgc diem nhdn khau hgc, khoa hgc cdng nghe san xudt, kho khan cua hg gia dinh qud trinh sdn xudt, chinh sach khuyen ngu, chinh sdch xd hgi va eo sd hg tdng cd anh hudng y nghia len thu nhgp eOa hg gia dinh Ngugc Igi, ede nhdn tovedo tuoi, trinh hge vdn, da dgng hoa thu nhap, quy mo sdn xudt, kinh nghiem san xudt khong ed anh hddng y nghia len thu nhap cua hg gia dinh Ket qua nghien cdu cho phep ehijng toi gdl md mgt so hdm y chinh sdch nang cao thu nhap hg gia dinh ven bien huyen Nui Thdnh, tinh Quang Nam TCf khoa: thu nhgp, hg gia dmh, thu nhgp hg gia dinh, ven bien, huyen Nui Thanh Abstract: The rural households' income in Nui Thanh district is mainly associated with commercial fishery activities Pressures ofthe decrease in fishery resources, seafood price instability, increased risks of exploitation, aquaculture and so on that have significantly affected household income Henee, the research on factors influencing the household income is necessary to provide a basis for proposing policies to improve people's income and living standards Adopting quantitative approach, the article quantified factors affecting household income in rural coastal areas of Nui Thanh district, Quang Nam province Research findings indicated that demographic characteristics, production technology, household constraints in production, extension policies, social policies and finally the infrastructure affected the household income On the other hand, the age, education, income diversification, production scale, experience not influence household income The results of this study enabled us to suggest some policy implications in improving livelihood of coastal households of Nui Thanh, Quang Nam province Keywords: income, household, coastal areas, Nui Thanh Ngdy nhgn bdi: 12/6/2018 Ngdy duyet ddng: 20/8/2018 Oat van de hu VLTC ven bien huyen Nui Thanh K bao gom xa Tam Tien, Tam Hoa, Tam Giang, Tam Quang vaTam Hai, vdi tong dien tich ta nhien 84,39 km2 {chiem 15,18% dien tich tir nhien), tong dan so khoang 47,8 nghin ngud\, ehiem 33,2% tong quy mo dan ,,^—r^ - , , , „ Email': • " V i e nchaungochoe01@gmail.com Khoa hoc xahoi vung Tnmg Bo so cua huyen Cae hoat dpng kinh te chinh cua CLT dan ven bien eCia huyen tap trung nhieu vao ITnh vUc thuy san, dae biet la ITnh ^dc khai thac thuy san la the manh I6n eua huyen tinh va cua vung Gia tn san xuat linh vUc thuy san dat 2.847 ty dong, chiem 75% gia tn san xuat toan nganh nong, lam, thuy san cua huyen Nui Thanh Trong do, gia tn s^n xuat cua ITnh vUc khai thac dat 1.745 ^V ^ ^, ^ g (chiem 61,29%), • gia , trj san , xuat „ cua , 24 linh vUc nudi trdng dat 1.102 ty ddng (chiem 38,71%) Dien tich nudi trdng thuy sJn ven bien cua huyen tinh den nam 2016 dat 1.596 ha, tang hon 200ha so vdi nam 2012, san lugng nudi trdng hang nam dat tren 7,5 nghin tan Linh vUc khai thac thuy san cung cd nhirng chuyen bien dang ke ve gia tri sSn xuat (tang hon 300 ty so vdi nam 2012) va san lugng khai thac (tang hdn 12 nghin tan so vdi nam 2012); sd lugng cac phuong tien khai thac cd sU chuyen djch theo hudng tang cac phUdng tien khai thac xa bd len 247 phUdng tien, vdi cdng suat tren 129 nghin CV Tuy vay, ddi sdng, sinh ke cCia cU dan ven bien cua huyen NuiThanh van cdn gap nhieu kho khan, sinh ke chu yeu dUa vao kinh te thiiy san vdi rui ro cao; ty le hg ngheo kha cao, cu the: xa Tam Tien (9,75%), Tam Hda (4,5%),Tam Hal (10,25%),Tam Giang (6,63%), Tam Quang (5,43%) (Nien giam thong ke huyen Niii Thanh, 2016, 2017) Ngoai ra, vting ven bien ciia huyen Nui Thanh vdi dac trUng chinh la viing bai ngang nen dieu kien kinh te - xa hgi cdn khd khan; dac biet, hien toan huyen van cdn 02 xa v i n dang thudc dien bai ngang ven bien dac biet khd khan (QD 131/QD-TTg 25/01/2017 cua Thii tudng Chinh phii) Do vay, viec nghien cifu thu nhap va cac nhan td anh hudng den thu nhap, qua de xuat cac ham y chinh sach nang cao thu nhap hg gia dinh ndng thdn ven bien ciia huyen Nui Thanh la rat cap thiet Khung phan tich cac nhan to dnh hudng den thu nhap ho gia dinh khu vUc ven bien Thu nhap hd gia dinh la tdng cac khoan thu bang ti^n hoac hien vat lao dgng ciia cac vien gia dinh tao (bao gom: tien cdng, tien luong gom ca luong huu, cac khoan trg cap gdm ca hgc bong), thu nhap tai chinh (lai tiet kiem, lai mua ban chiing khoan, thu tir cho thue bat ddng CHAU NGOC H6E, H6TH! KIMTHOV sSn) va cac thu nhap khac (tien thudng, ) Nhu vay, thu nhap ciia hd gia dinh chju anii hudng cua nhieu nhan td tir dac diem nhan khau, dac trung nghe nghiep, chinh sacli phat trien, chinh sach xa hdi den co sd tang cCia moi viing, dja phUdng Cu the nghien cufu nay, chung tdi quan tam den cac nhan td sau: Oac diem nhan khau hgc cd the anh hudng y nghia den thu nhap ciia hd gia dinh, bao gom cac van de ve nhan khau, trinh dp hgc van, dac trung cua hd, tuoi, Cac nghien ciru ciia cac tac gia Xiong, Zhanglin; Niu, Ying (2010), Al Jabri va cac cdng si( (2013), Hoang Hdng Hiep (2016) va Chau Nggc Hoe (2016, 2017) cung da chi rang, cac dac diem nhan khau hgc cd anh hudngy nghia len thu nhap cua hg gia dmh; Bac trUng nghe nghiep cd the anh hudng y nghia den thu nhap ciia hd gia dinh, dac biet cac hd gia dinh viing ven bien thi hoat ddng kinh te thuy san cung co the anh hudng true tiep hoac gian tiep den thu nhap cua hd Cac nghien cijru ciia Al Jabri va cac cdng su (2013), Hoang Hdng Hiep (2016), Karmini (2017), J K Sesabo va cgng su (2005) va Chau Nggc Hoe (2016, 2017) cung da chi rang, nghe nghiep cd cinh hudng rat y nghia den thu nhap ciia hg gia dmh D6i vdi cU dan ven bien thi cac dac trUng lien quan den nganh thuy sin ciia hg gia dinh cd the cd anh hudng quan trgng den thu nhip cua hd gia dinh; Vdi dac trUng kinh te hg gia dinh la d khu vUc ven bien va ngudn tao thu nhap chu yeu tir nganh thuy san, vay chinh sach khuyen ngu cd the Inh hudng den thu nhap cua cac hd gia dinh Cac nghien culu ciia Al Jabri vi cac cdng su (2013), Garoma va cac cdng sil (2013), Hoang Hdng Hiep (2016) da chi rang, chinh sach khuyen ngu cd anh hudngj nghia len thu nhap ciia cac hg gia dinh ngil din; Tap chi Khoa hoc xa hoi mien Trung, So (54) - 2018 Chinh sach xa hdi cua dia phuong cd the gdp phan cai thien thu nhap ciia hg gia dmh fl nhOfng dja phuong trien khai thuc hien tdt cac chinh sach nhu giai quyet viec lam, an sinh xa hgi, xda ddi g l i m ngheo cd the lam cho thu nhap ciia hg gia dinh tang len dang ke Cac nghien cufu ciia Nguyen Qudc Nghi va cdng su (2011), Raju Ghimire va cdng su (2014), Chiu Nggc Hoe (2016) cung da quan t i m va tim thay vai trd ciia chinh sach xa hdi ddi vdi cai thien thu nhap ciia hg gia dmh; Co sd tang cd the anh hudng den thu nhap cua hd gia dinh, d nhijfng dja phUdng cd CO sd tang tdt hon cd the gdp phan quan trgng lam gia tang thu nhap ciia hg gia dmh Cac nghien cufu ciia Mohammad Samaun Safa (2005), Xiong, Zhang-lin; Niu, Ying (2010), Raju Ghimire va cdng su(2014), Chau Nggc Hde (2016, 2017) cung da quan tam va khang djnh vai trd ciia co sd tang ddi vdi cai thien thu nhap hd gia dinh Tren cd sd ke thira cac nghien cufu ve thu nhap hd gia dmh va thuc tien d dja ban nghien ciiu, chung tdi xay dung khung phan tich cac nhan to Inh hudng den thu nhap hd gia dinh ndng thdn ven bien bao gdm: (1) Nhan to dac diem nhan khau hgc; (2) Nhin Scr ct6 Khung phan tich cac nhan to dnh hudng den thu nhap ho gia dinh ven bien Die diem nhan khau hpc Tfinh hpc van; flp tuoi; Hp ngheo, Nhan / L D|c trirng nghe nghiep Nuoi trong; Khai thac; Cong suat tau; Qjy mo nuoi tfong, Da d^ng hoa Ihu nh^p; Kho khan san Thu nhap hp gia dinh ven bien ^ ^ (\ Chmh sach khuyen ngu* Chinh sach xa hqi Xoa ddi giam ngheo; (jiai quvet vi^c lam,H6 trp Ccrso'hatang - fiien, dLTtrng, giao dye, y te, van hda, the thao 25 to dac trUng nghe nghiep; (3) Nhan to chmh sach khuyen ngu"; (4) Nhan to chfnh sach xa hpi; (5) Nhan to ca scf tang Do dja ban nghien cufu la khu vUc ven bien cua mot huyen, day la dja ban taong doi nho, nen viec xem xet nhan to dja ban cU tru chung toi khong thuc hien nghten cdu Mo hinh nghien cuTu, mo td duT lieu va cor sddCir lieu DUa tren khung phan tich dUOc de xuat d so 1, chung toi xay dung mo hinh nghien cUu cac nhan to anh hudng den thu nhap hp gia dinh nong thon ven bien huyen Nui Thanh, tinh Qucing Nam nhUsau: Y = P,+P,X,+ P,X,+ P3X3+ p/^+ p,X^+ e Trong do: Yi: Bien phu thupc Cac bien doc lap: XI: Dac diem nhan khau hpc X2: Dac trUng nghe nghiep X3: Chinh sach khuyen ngU X4: Chinh sach xa hpi X5: Co SCf tang E: Phan du cua mo hinh nghien cUu, i = 1,2, 149 Theo mo hinh nghien cUu dupe de xuat, chung toi mo ta va lUdng cac bien, cung nhu ky vpng vao ket quci u6c lupng cCia mo hinh theo bang De thUc hien nghien cUu nay, chung toi thUc hien dieu tra thu nhap hp gia dinh khu vuc nong thon ven bien huyen Nui Thanh, v6i so phieu dat chat lupng thu dUpc la 149 Trong do, so ho gia dinh co hoat dpng khai thac thuy san la 84 phieu, chiem 56,4%, nuoi thuy san co 65 phieu, chiem 43,6% Ket qua khao sat cho thay, thu nhap binh quan hp gia dinh dat 186 trieu dong/nam, thu nhap tU khai thac xa bd chiem 58,2%, thu nhap khai thac gan bd chiem 6,21 %, thu nhap xd nuoi thuy san chiem 11,9% va thu nhap phi ngu nghiep chiem 19% Theo Tabachnick & Fidell (1991, 1996), phan tich 26 I CHAu NGOC HOE, H(5 THI KIM THOV Bing Mo ta va li/cfng cac bien mo hinh nghien cilu TT Cac bien Bien phu thudc(Y) Dac diem nhin khau hgcX, Dien giai bien TN Trieu ddng TNBQ NK Trieu ddnq Nqudi So nhan khau phu thugc Phuthuoc Trinh dd hoc van Dd tuoi Hd ngheo Dac trung nghe nghiep Xj Thang Tdng thu nhap cua hg qia dinh Thu nhap binh quan Sd nhin khau Da danq hda thu nhap Ky hieu bien HV Dotuoi Hongheo DDHTN Nghe nghiep chinh KTTS Kinh nghiem san xuat KNSX Cdng suat tau thuyen Quy md nudi thuysan Khoa hgc cdng nghe sin xuat CS Khd khan san xuat QH/INT KHCN KK Ky vong +/- Ngudi So nam di hoc Sdtuoi 1: Ngheo; 0: Khdnq 1: Cd; 0: Khdnq 1: Khai thac thuy sin: 0: nudi trdno Sdnam kinh nqhiem Cdng suit (CV) Dien tich (sao) + +/+ +/+ +/+/- Likert (5 bac) + Likert(5bac)1 Rat khd khan Hoan toan khdng khd khin + Vay vdn san xuat Vayv Chinh sach khuyen ngUXj Chinh sach khuyen ngu cua dja phuong CSKN Likert (5 bac) + Chinh sach xa hdi X^ Chinh sach xa hdi cua dia phUdng CSXH Likert (5 bac) 4- Co sd tang X, Co sd tang CSHT Likert (5 bac) + hdi quy dat dugc ket qui tot nhat, thi kich cd mlu phai thda man cdng thdc n > 8m + so (n la kich cd mau - m II so bien dgc lap); theo Comrey, (1973) va Roger, (2006) thi cd mau phii hgp vdi nghien cuTu phin tich nhin to la n = 5*m (Hoang Trgng, Chu Nguyen IVIgng Nggc, 2015) NhU vay, vdi sd quan sat thu thap dugc la 149 phieu, dam bio thoa man +/- dieu kien mau de thuc hien hdi quy bdi cac nhin td Inh hudng den thu nhap hd gia dmh ndng thon ven bien huyen Nui Thanh, tinh Quang Nam Phuong phap nghien ciiu va icet qui Udc lirong J Phuang phap nghien ciiU Trudc tien, nghien cufu thUc hien kiem dinh cac nhin td khuech dai phuong sai 127 Tap chi Khoa hoc xa hoi mignTrung, So (54) - 2018 (variance inflation factors/VIF), ket qua cho thay cac nhan to nghe nghiep chinh va quy mo nuoi thuy s^n c6 VIF ldn hon 10, nen loai khoi mo hinh Cac nhan to lai, cho thay gia trj trung binh VIF mo hinh deu nho hon Dieu nay, cho phep chung toi ket luan mo hinh sau loai cac bien nghe nghiep chinh va quy mo nuoi thuy san khong ton tai hien tupng da cong tuyen giCfa cac bien gicii thich Sau do, thUc hien kiem djnh Durbin Watson v6i cac gia trj < p < va deu d mUc gan bang Dieu cho thay, mo hinh cac bien giai thich khong co hien tUpng tUtUOng quan.Tiep theo, chung toi thuc hien kiem dinh White de kiem tra phuong sai sai so thay doi Ket qua kiem djnh cho thay mo hinh khong co hien tUpng phuong sal sai so thay doi d mdc y nghTa 5% (Heteroscedasticity Test: White) Tren co sd cac kiem djnh ve dp phu hpp cua mo hinh nghien cUu tren, chung toi sCr dung phuong phap hoi quy OLS de ddc lupng cac nhan to anh hudng den thu nhap hp gia dinh khu vUc nong thon ven bien huyen Nui Thanh, tinh Quang Nam va ket qua nhU bang 3.2 Phdn tich ket qud itdc litong Dge diem nhan khau hge Ket qua U6c lupng chi rang, cac dac diem nhan khau hoc co anh hudng den thu nhap cua hp gia dinh nong thon ven bien bao gom so nhan khau, so nhan khiu phu thupc, hp ngheo So nhan khau co anh hUdng tich cue den thu nhap cua hp gia dinh Trong dieu kien cac yeu to khac khong thay doi, tang BSng2 KetquaLrorclirtfngcacnhantoSnhhU^gdenthunhaphdgiadinh khu vUc nong thon ven bien huyen Nui Thanh, tinh Qudng Nam Ten bien Hang sd NK Phuthuoc HV Dotuoi Hongheo DDHTN KNSX CS KHCN KK (2) TNBQ (1) TN IVIo hinh P, 3.881 0.164**" (0.003) -0.092* (0.095) -0.005 (0.885) -0.014 (0.699) -0.555*** (0.000) 0.000 (0.995) 0.012 (0.805) 0.028 (0.626) 0.102** (0.014) 0.085** (0.017) VIF P, VIF 0.768 2.658 2.642 1.052 1.159 2.645 1.288 2.188 3.011 1.489 1.109 -0.095*** (0.007) 0.006 (0.866) -0.012 (0.737) 0.525*** (0.000) -0.002 (0.956) 0.028 (0.565) 0.022 (0.698) 0.119*** (0.003) 0.084** (0.016) 1.128 1.052 1.150 2,575 1.104 2.188 2.969 1.481 1.108 28 I CHAU NGOC H6E, H THI KIM THOy Vayv CSKN CSXH CSHT N ff H.Test: White Durbin Watson 0.012 (0.748) 0.228*** (0.000) 0.252*** (0.000) 0.076** (0.033) 149 0.849*** (0.000) (0.0875) 2.174 1.255 1.459 3.501 1.110 0.015 (0.676) 0.246*** (0.000) 0.272*** (0.000) 0.084** (0.016) 149 0.856*** (0.000) (0.0993) 2.073 1.246 1.450 3.315 1.107 Ghi chu: Gia tri P-vaiue dugc mo ta ddu ngodc dgn 'P-value < 0.1; "P-value < 0.05; "*P-value