Dự báo nhu cầu nguồn nhân lực tập đoàn dệt may việt nam giai đoạn 2020 2025 tầm nhìn đến năm 2030

Du" bao nhu cau nguon nhan li/c Tap doan Det May Viet Nam giai doan 2020-2025 tam nhin den nam 2030 TA VAN CANH* Tom tSt Qudn ly dff bdo Id mdt nhffng khia cgnh chu ye'u cua "chdt lugng todn dien" cdc hogt ddng qudn ly nguon nhdn luc Nghien cffu thuc hiin hoi quy luye'n linh theo chudi thdi gian cho du bdo nhu cdu ngudn nhdn Itxc tgi Tap dodn Del May Viet Nam (Vlnatex) Dong thdi, sff dicing phuang phdp phdn tich chuyin dich ty trgng (Shift-Share Analysis - SSA) di ludng tdc dgng tff chuyen djch ca cd'u lao dgng vd thay ddi ndng sud't lao ddng ndi ngdnh del may bdi cdnh cudc Cdch mang Cong nghiep 4.0 (CMCN4.0) de kiem nghiim lgi dubdo Kit qud nghiin cffu dUa dff bdo, lao ddng lgi cdc doanh nghiip thudc Vinatex co xu hudng gidm ddn, ca cdu lao ddng co su dich chuyen mgnh tff lao ddng gidn dan sang lao dgng ky thudt yeu cdu cua CMCN 4.0; dong thdi xdc nhdn, CMCN 4.0 co ldm dnh hudng di'n lao dgng ngdnh del may noi chung, luy nhiin mffc tdc dgng den bii'n dgng nhdn luc khong qud ldn Tff khoa: CMCN 4.0, ngdnh det may nguon nhdn lffc, Vinatex Summary Prediction is one of the key aspects of "comprehensive quality " in human resource management This research carries out linear regression using lime series data lo forecasi demand for human resource at Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) Also, shift-share analysis (SSA) is employed to measure the impaci of labor restructuring and changes in labor productivity in the textile and garment industry in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution to verify the forecast The resuU Indicates that labors In enterprises under Vinatex tends to decrease, while labor structure witnesses a strong shift from simple labor to technical labor due to requirements of the Fourth Industrial Revolution The outcome also confirms that the Revolution has an impact on labors in textile and garment industry in general bul the Infiuence on manpower fluctuations is not too large Keywords: the Fourth Industrial Revolution, textile and garment industry, human resources Vinatex G\(J\ THIEU Nganh ddt may Viet Nam ndi chung va Vinatex ndi rieng da va dang ddng g6p nhieu vao sff phdt trid'n kinh te' xa hdi cua dd't nffde Trong nhieu ndm, kim ngach xud't kha'u nganh del may ludn dffng diff hai, chi sau nganh dien tu" (Thudn, 2018) va chid'm ty trpng xa'p xi 15% tdng GDP ca nffdc (VIRAC, 2019) Ve nhdn Iffc so vdi cac nganh cdng nghiep khdc, edng nghiep ddt may la ngdnh cd sd Iffdng lao ddng nff chie'm da sd (trdn 80%), ddng thdi ty Id lao dong cd trinh dp pho' thdng chffa qua dao tao Idn (xa'p xi 70%) Ddy la mot dde thu cua ngdnh, ddt may dffdc coi la ddng lffc nguydn mlu cua thdi ky tien edng nghiep d cac nffdc phdt trie'n va dang phat trien (Natsuda, Goto vd Thoburn, 2010) vdi may mdc, trang thid't bi va edng nghd san xua't tffdng dd'i lacjiau Ngay nay, vdi sffphdt tnen manh me eua cdng nghd thdng tin, internet, mang khdng day yd tff ddng hda, sff ke't hdp giffa ehung da tao ndn cdn sd't dffdc goi la cudc CMCN 4.0 da ddn de'n su\ dodn rang robot se thay the' de'n 86% lao ddng nganb ddt may hidn (Chang va Huynh 2016) va dd se cd thay dd'i ldn ve cd cau lao *TS., Trffdng Dai hgc Cong nghiep Det May Ha Hoi Nga\ nhdn bdi; 28/05/2020: Ngd\ phdn hien: 20/6/2020; Ngdy duyet ddng • 25/6/2020 dpng eua ngdnh Ne'u dieu la sff thffc, thi se Id thdch thffc ldn ve lao ddng dd'i vdi nganh va nen kinh ti Bdi, nganh ddt may dffdc coi la mpt ba ITnh vffe phat trie'n trpng did'm cua Chinh phii, dffdc cu the hda Quye't dinh sddS/QD-TTg, 18/01/2017 cua Thu tffdng Cbinh phu ve cdng nghiep ho trd va Quyd'tdinh sd3218/QD-BCT, 11/04/2014 cua Bp Cdng Thffdng ve vide phe duyet Quy hoach phat trien ngdnh edng nghidp det may Vidt Nam de'n nam 2020, tam nhin de'n nam 2030 Ddnh gid tde ddng cua CMCN 4.0 den nganh ddt may, xem xet mffe dp anh hffdng bid'n ddng nhu cau nhan lffc, tff dd cd nhffng khuydn nghi chinh sach phil hdp de tao the^chu ddng ffng phd, mang tinh cd'p thid't Nghien cffu di tff mdt quy md nhd hdn Id dff bao nhu c^u ngudn nhan lffc tai Vinatex, de suy rpng cho nhu cau lao ddng nganh det may Viet Nam ndi ehung, c a SCf LY THUYET VA PHL/ONG PHAP NGHIEN CLfU Cd sof ly thuyd't Dff bdo nhu cau nhan lffc la viec dffa trdn phan tich cdc md'i lidn hd qua lai giffa nhu c^u nhan lffc vdi cdc ye'u td ed lien quan, tren cd sd quan sat tinh quy luat va dinh hffdng tffdng lai Ngffdi ta thffdng dffa vdo cdc md hinh kinh td' Iffdng dd' dff bdo tdng nhu cau nhan lffc cho cac nganh hoae eho tffng nganh kinh te Nhffng nghidn cffu ve nhu cau nhdn lffc va nghidn cdh v^ ly thuyd't dff bdo da hinh nen mdt so md hinh dff bao ve nhu cau nhan lffc dai han va ngan ban, tieu bieu cd mdt sd'md hinh diT bao sau: - Md hinh Lotus (dffde xay dffng dffa trdn md hinh kinh te' vT md lidn nganh nhdm Infomm (nhdm nghien cffu thudc Dai hpc Maryland cua My) thffc hien va hien dang trd giup cho Viet Nam (Cue Viec lam, Bd Lao dpng - Thffdng binh va Xa hdi) tff nam 2009 He thd'ng md hinh hda eiia md hinh cd tinh cha't dai han, cd the dff bdo cho 10 nam hoae xa hdn cho tffdng lai eua nen kinh te' va thi trffdng lao ddng, - Md hinh ca sd BLS Cue Thd'ng kd lao ddng cua My (US Bureau of Labor Statistics | thffc hidn Day la md hinh dff bao mang tinh vT md da nganh, dffdc chia bffdc thffc hien: Lffc Iffdng lao dpng; Tdng trffdng kinh td'chung; Cau san pham nffdc (GDP) chia theo nganh; Dau - dau vao; Nhan lffc theo nganh; Nhdn lffc theo nghe Mdi thdnh phan dffdc giai quye't tuan Iff vdi kd't qua cua tffng yd'u td'dau vdo cho cac phan kd' tid'p va vdi mpt so' ke't qua cho phep quay trd Iai bffdc trffdc dd Mdt nhffng thd' manh cua md hinh BLS Id ke'l qua dff bdo cbi tid't cho cdc nganh va nghe nghidp, dieu dac biet hffu ieh dff bdo cho nhdm nganh nghe cu the, - Md hinh lER (The Institute of Employment Rights - UK) Vien ve Quyen cua Ngffdi lao ddng cua Anh thffc hidn Ve phffdng phdp ludn, md hinh cd ban gid'ng md hinh BLS cua My Die'm khac ciia md hinh la phdn lich chi tie't hdn chu y hdn tdi nhu cau theo 234 nghd, dao tao theo vung mien va gidi tinh (khi lao ddng nam hoac nff khong the thay thd'eho ydu cau nghd nghidp) - Md hinh lAB Vidn Nghidn cffu Viec lam eua Dffc thffc hidn Diem khdc bidt eua md hinh la dff bao Iffe Iffdng lao ddng cd tinh dd'n cac dac tinh, nhff: ngffdi lao ddng dang lam vide, gia nhap mdi hoae iao ddng di cff, nhap cff, dan sdvd ty Id diam gia lffc Iffdng lao dpng Ve ly thuyd't, edc md hinh dff bao deu dffa trdn phffdng phap dinh Iffdng va dinh tinh Phffdng phap dinh Iffdng sff dung mdt so' md hinh todn hoc xde dinh quy ludt bid'n dpng theo thdi gian va theo cdc ye'u to' dd' dff bdo mdt cdch djnh Iffdng mffc do, ty le cua qud trinh hay hidn tffdng tffdng lai Phffdng phap dff bad dinh tinh dffdc thffc hidn thdng qua viec phdn tich xu thd'ddc trffng van dpng eiia hien tffdng, tff dd cho cdc dff bao cd tinh xu thd' Trdn thffc te, md hinh dff bao thffdng dffa trdn cdc phffdng phdp chuydn gia, phffdng phap thd'ng kd, kinh te' Iffdng va md hinh can bang tdng the (CGE) Phffdng phap nghien cihi Nghidn cffu sff dung mo hinh Lotus (Long - Term Occupation and Traning Utilization System) dd' thifc hien cdc dff bdo dai ban: vdi Dau vao la cdc so lieu kinh te' vl md Bang Vdo Ra, sd' Udu ve lffc Iffdng lao ddng nganh ddt may vd Dau la lao ddng cd vide lam ngdnh, ly le tha't nghiep tffdng lai Md hinh Lotus dff bdo eho 10 nam hodc xa hdn cho tffdng lai cua tang trffdng nganh dpt may va thi trffdng lao ddng nganh del may Viet Nam Tdm die'm eua md hinh la nhu cau lao dpng eua nganh va nhffng yeu cau ve dao tao de phat trien ngudn cung ffng lao dpng can thie't ddp ffng nhffng nhu cdu dd Md hinh chii y den ky nang nghe ciia lao ddng, de xdc dinh ndi nao thffa, ndi nao thie'u cdc loai lao ddng cd ky nang nha't dinh Md hinh cung de xua't mot pham vi phdn tich rpng cho cac van de lao ddng npi nganh, nhffng anh hffdng ciia chinh sdch kinh td' vT md khdc Nghien cffu sff dung ddng thdi ca phffdng phdp dinh Iffpng va dinh tinh de dffa cae dff bdo vd nhu cau nguon nhdn lffc ciia Vinatex va suy rpng cho todn nganh det may Viei Narn Phffdng phdp dinh Iffdng hdi quy luyen linh theo chudi thdi gian cho dff bdo nhu cau ngudn nhan lffc Vinatex giai doan 2020-2025 dinh hffdng dd'n nam 2030 Ddng thdi, diing phffdng phdp SSA kiem nghiem lai dff bao vdi gia dinh Vinatex ffng dung CMCN 4.0 vdo sdn xua't Vide lffa chpn dia ban nghien ciJu su" dung phffdng phap la hdi quy theo chudi thdi gian vd ngoai suy ham xu thd' d^ dff bao ve nhu cau nguon nhan lffc Id rd^t quan trpng, nd lien quan dd'n kd't qua Clia nghien cffu Vide lffa chpn Vinatex Idm dia ban nghien effu dffde can cff vao: Thff nhdt, day la tap doan ldn, tap trung nhieu doanh nghidp hang dau nganh det may cd nffdc Thff hai, cac doanh nghiep cua Vinatex bao gom du ca cdc doanh nghidp sdi, det, nhudm va may cd thd dai didn cho nganh det may Viet Nam Thd ba dd' cd the' van dung CMCN 4.0 vao doanh nghidp, thi dieu kien la doanh nghidp dd du manh ve tdi chinh va quan tri Do do, chi cd cdc doanh nghiep \dn mdi cd the' ddp ffng dffdc nhffng ydu cau nay, Vinatex quan Iy nhieu doanh nghidp Idn eiia nganh det may, ndn chpn Vinatex la hdp ly (Bdi vii'l sff dting cdch vie't so thdp phdn theo chudn qudc li) KET QUA NGHIEN CUU BANG 1: GIA TRI S A N X O A T CAC Mv^T HANG CHU YEO CUA VINATEX / TT Tong gia tri Sanph^m Sdi Vdi May Khan KhSc GUtnCVND) 8,162.5 2,456.7 33,342.0 1.494.4 3.744 49,200 HINH 1: C d CACI TRIMH DQ LAO DQNG KY T H U A T TAl VINATEX —M •h • TC/Cao ding • Dal hoE Mguon Ket qua khao sat,2019 BANG 2: CCJ GAG LAO DQNG PHAN THEO CHCTC NANG TT A B Lo^i Iao dOng doanh nghiap Doanh ngtii^p si^i, det, nhuOm Can bo quan ly Can bo ky thual Cong nhan ky thuiit Doanh nghiep may va thcfi trang Can bo quan ly Can bfl ky thual Cong nhanky thuat TJI«(%) 13 22 65 Thd'ng kd md ta m§u Vinatex la mdt tap dodn ldn ngdnh ddt may Vidt Nam Hien Tap dodn quan ly 45 ddn vi vien, 88 cd 24 tdng cdng ty va edng ty may, iNguon Ket qua khao sat ' nhff: Tdng Cdng ty May 10, Tong Cdng ly May Dffc Giang, Tdng Cdng ty May BANG 3: THONG KE NHAN L^fC TAP DOAN QUA CAC NAM Hda Thp, Tdng Cong ty May Hffng Ydn, Td'ng Cdng ty May Nhd Be, Tdng Cdng Lao d$ng cu6i nSm Lao d$ng dSu niiin Nfim ty cd phan May Vidt Tid'n,, Vinatex cdn 93,605 94.449 2011 quan ly hdn 12 doanh nghidp ldn san 97,449 77.236 2012 xua't vd kinh doanh sdi, nhff: Td'ng Cdng 7«.911 77,236 2013 ty Cd phan Sdi Phu Bai, Tdng Cdng ty 79,361 83.790 2014 Viet Thang hoac Tdng Cong ty Co phan 80,330 85.921 2015 Phong Phu va trdn 10 cdng ty ve ddt vai 83.617 83,135 2016 khde, vdi tong sd'lao ddng trdn 80 nghin 83,782 79.798 2017 ngffdi (Vinatex, 2016, 2017, 2018) 83,625 82.353 2018 Cdc mat hdng san xua't eiia Vinatex 80.626 78,909 2019 bao gdm: sdi, vdi, hang may mac, khan va cdc sdn pha'm khac Trong dd, cac doanh nghiep may va sdi ddng gdp doanh thu nhilu nha't eho td'ng gid tri san ldn nha't vao doanh thu Tap doan, nhffng ty le lao ddng ed trinh dp phd thdng lai chid'm xa'p xi 90%, edn lao xua't cua Tap doan (Bang 1) Ve cd ca'u nhan lffc, Hinh cho thay ddnf cd trinh dp dai hpc va trdn dai hpc chi chid'm dffdi lao dpng phd thdng chid'm da so' ta't 7% Dieu dffdc Iy giai bdi nganh may dffdc chia cd cac nhdm ngdnh cua Vinatex Ddng ldm nhieu cdng doan mdi cdng doan ehi thffc hien mot chii y la nganh may cd gia tri ddng gdp so thao tde gian ddn lap lai do lao ddng chi can ! Economy and Forecast Re\]e 235 HiNH 2: KET QGA H | QGY CGA SO LG'ONG LAO DQNG QGA CAC NAM TWng ke bdi quy ^ R 0.5611013 R- 0.4126144 R-dieu chinh 0.1634028 Sai so chuan hoa 5.7170571 Bien quan sat 18 ANOVA df SS Hoi quy P h k dif Tong 16 17 Sai so mngsg diuan t hoa He so' chan 88.964771 2.811433 31,64393 TT MS F Y nghta F 141.2116 141 2116 320412 0.054108 522.9559 32 68474 664.1674 P Dirdi 95% Tren 95% Dirdi 95% Tren 95% 7,4436 83 0(M-8 94 92474 83 0048 94 92474 -0J398688 0.259732 -2 07856 0.054108 -1 09048 0.010739 -1.09048 010739 BANG 4: KET QUA HOI QGY TGYEN TINH TT Nam KJ S« LB (1.000) MA (2) CMA (2) It 2011 94 94 93 85 2012 77 87 97 88 2013 78 78 77 80 2014 83 79 85 81 82 2015 10 80 82 1] 2016 12 83 84 84 82 13 2017 79 83 14 83 8] 82 15 2018 81 82 16 83 82 17 2019 81 78 80 18 19 2020 SI Tt Ds Di/bio 89.250 05 98 95.484 88.425 87 0503 86.000 1.08 1.03 90 536 87.885 90.2773 87.250 0.88 0.98 78216 87.345 85.9873 82.500 1.18 1.03 94 430 86.805 89.1682 78 750 0.99 0.98 79.232 86.265 84.9244 80 500 0.96 1.03 74.960 85.726 88 059 81.500 I 02 0.98 84.311 85.186 83.8614 82.250 0.96 03 76.907 84.646 86.9499 82.000 1.04 0.98 86.342 84.106 82.7984 82.500 0.97 103 77.880 83.566 85.8408 82 500 01 98 84.311 83.026 81.7355 81 250 1.03 1.03 81.774 82 486 84.7317 81 946 80.6725 81 407 83.6225 81.500 0.97 0.98 80 248 82.000 1.01 1.03 80.801 82.000 0.99 0.98 82.279 80.750 1.03 1.03 80.801 80.867 79.6096 80.327 82.5134 0.98 82.279 79.787 78.5466 103 75.933 79 247 81.4043 98 78.707 77.4837 20 1.03 21 2021 0.98 77.628 76.4207 22 1.03 23 2022 98 77.088 79 186 76.548 75.3578 76.008 78.0769 24 1.03 25 2023 0.98 26 1.03 27 2024 0.98 28 03 0.98 29 2025 30 1.03 236 78.167 80 2951 75 468 74 2948 74.928 76.9678 74.388 73.2319 73.848 75.8586 73.309 72 1689 72.769 74 7495 dffdc ddo tao tai chd khoang thdi gian nha't dinh id cd the thffc hidn dffpc Bay cung la cd sd de quan tam dd'n vide lao dpng ndy se bi thay thd' bdi robot (CMCN 4.0) va nd'u doanh nghidp thffc hidn dieu nay, thi nhu eau lao dpng cd the se giam di rat nhieu Lao ddng cua Tdp dodn dffdc phan theo chffc nang d Bang 2, theo cd ca'u lao dpng la quan ly nganh sdi, del, nhudm cao hdn ty Id lao ddng Id quan ly nganh may xd'p xi Ian (13% so vdi 7%) Nhan lffc cua Vinatex bid'n dpng theo cac nam (Bang 3) Nhin chung sdlffdng nhdn lffc cd xu hffdng giam qua cdc nam (tff 2011-2019), lao ddng cudi nam vd lao ddng ddu nam deu cd sff chenh lech nhd't dinh, Dff lidu thd'ng ke Bang se Id cd sd de dff bdo lao ddng cua Vinatex giai doan 2020-2025 H& quy tiiy6n tuih theo chu^ thoS ^an Cac phan bie'n so' cua hdm hdi quy dffdc dat ten nhff sau: - Bie'n MA (Moving Average) la bie'n he so' trffpt trung binh ve so Iffdng lao dpng qua cac nam Bie'n CMA {Centered Moving Average) Id he sd' trffdt trung binh trung tam nham xdc dinh gid tri trung binh giffa hai gid tn ben - Bid'n St, It la bie'n phan theo miia (Seasonal component) va bid'n bat thffdng ([regular component) gia tri hai bid'n Id cd sd de dff bao xu hffdng - Bid'n Ds (Deseasonalize) la bid'n tdch gia tri theo mua, loai bd bd't thffdng It, hay ndi each khdc Ioai trff cdc diem phu thupc theo thdi diem de tap trung vao xu hffdng dff bao chinh - Tt la bid'n xu hffdng la phffdng trinh tuyd'n tinh giffa sd Iffdng lao dpng va thdi gian Bid'n dff bdo chinh Id ke't qua tich hdp giffa cac bid'n tren sau da Ioai bd nhffng ba't thffdng Kdt qua cho tha'y cd moi quan he tuyd'n tinh giffa bien "Nam" vd bie'n "Sd Iffdng lao ddng" tai p = 0.054108; quan he tuyen tinh nghich tai t = - 0.5398688 (t< 0), hay ndi cdch khdc Id cff sau moi nam, thl lao ddng cd xu hffdng giam di (Hinh 2) Ket qua dff bdo Bang cho tha'y, dff lieu dff bdo cang ve ,sau cang gan dat dd'n dp chinh xac Ld'y gid tri tff nam 2016 trd lai da\ thi dff lieu dff bdo cd the tin cay dffdc (Bang 3) vdi sai sdcd the cha'p nhan dffpc (tdi da p =