Xu hu'drng thay doi cua viec lam tac dong cua cuoc Cach mang Cong nghiep lan thu" Tu" D X U A M TRCTCJNG" Tom t^t Bdi viet di sdu phdn lich nhffng tdc ddng ctia Cdch mgng Cdng nghiep ldn thff Tu(CMCN 4.0) din viec ldm vd nhffng thay ddi co tinh chdt he qud cua nhffng tdc ddng ndy Kit qud nghiin cffu cho thdy, CMCN 4.0 tdc ddng ldn ldm thay ddi viic ldm, theo xu hudng: (i) Cdng viec mdt di ngffdi bj thay thi bdi mdy mdc; (ii) Cdng nghi tgo viic ldm mdi; (iii) Cdch thffc ldm viic thay ddi Nhiing thay ddi ve viec ldm cung ddn din thay ddi co tinh hi qud khdc la: (i) Thay ddi nhu cdu ve cdc ky nang cdng viic cua ngUdi lao ddng; (li) Thay dot cda hi thd'ng gido due vd ddo tgo theo nhu cau cua xd hgi; (lii) Thay ddi hi thd'ng bdo trg xd hdi - ddi tuang lao ddng trinh thdp du thffa khong tim kiim dugc viic ldm, nhung lgi thiiu nhdn lffc chdt lugng cao di ddm nhiim dugc cdc cdng viec mdi Tff khda: Cdch mang Cdng nghiip ldn thff Tu, viic ldm, ky ndng, gido due vd ddo tgo, bdo trg xahdi Summary This paper analyzes the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on employment and the involved changes The results show that the aforementioned Revolution has a great impact on the change of employmeni through the following three trends: (i) Loss of jobs due to the replacement of machines; (ii) New jobs created by technology; (Hi) The change in work style These changes in employmeni also lead lo three other consequential changes: (i) Changes in demand for workers' job skills; (ii) Change in education and training system according to the needs of society; (HI) Changes in social protection system - when low-income people cannot find jobs, but there a lack of high-quality labors to undertake new jobs Keywords: the Fourth Industrial Revolution, employment, skills, education and training, social protection Gldi THIEU Cudc CMCN 4.0 dd tao nhieu ddt phd v^ cdng nghd mdi, nhff: chd' tao robot, cdng nghd nano, tri tue nhdn tao, cdng nghd sinh hpc keo theo chudi cac lien ke't tfng dung san xua't vd tff dd hinh thdnh cdc ngdnh nghe mdi, dac biet la nhffng ngdnh nghi cd sff lien quan de'n Wdng tdc giffa ngffdi vdi mdy mdc Cudc CMCN 4.0 dang tiem an nguy cd phd vd sff can bang cua thi trffdng lao ddng, sff thay thd' sffc iao ddng etfa robot vd iff dpng hda; lam gia tang khodng cdch giau nghdo giffa nhiihg ddi tffdng cung ed'p vdn tdi chinh va vdn tri thffc va nhffng ngffdi lao dpng phu thude vaosffclaoddng Chinh vay, sff tdc ddng cua cupc CMCN 4.0 ed nhieu kha nang se lam thay ddi ed ca'u vide lam, din tdi lam dao ldn cac mat ciia ddi sd'ng kinh td' - xd hdi Do dd, vide ndm bat xu hffdng thay doi ciia vide lam ldc ddng cua cudc CMCN 4.0 bd'i canh phat trid'n kinh td'- xa hpi d Viet Nam, d^ cd nhffng chinh sach ffng phd kip thdi, la va'n de mang tinh cap thie't hidn , ^ , , , „ KET QUA NGHIEN CLAJ VA THAO LU,^N Xu hffdng thay dd'i vide lam tac dpng cua CM 4.0 Cdc cong viec mdt di ngUcd bi thay the bdi mdy moc May tinh thdng minh, tri tud nhan tao ngdy cd kha nang nhan thffc va lam dffdc cac vide, nhff: phdn tich, giao tid'p va hid'u dffdc ngffdi Tri tud nhdn tao tham chi cdn vffdt troi ngffdi kha nang nhan bid't va phdn doan cam xiic Cac loai hinh cong vide 'TS., Truang D^i hgc Kinh te - D91 hpc Qudc gia Ha PSgi Ngdv nhqn bdi: 08/6/2020; Ngdy phdn bien: 20/6/2020; Ngdy duyit ddng; 26/6/2020 Economy and Forecasc Rev n-w ^'*0 BAtMG: CAC CONG VIEC D VA KHO B| THAY THE NHAT Kho bi thay thif nha't Dlbithayth^nhfiit C6ng vific C6ng vi§c Tie'p Ihl qua dien thoai Gkim dinh vien bao hiem Ph^u ihuat vien Thif ky phap ly Moi gidi bat dong san Quan ly nhan sif Nha thau lao dong Chuyen vien van liilnh he thong may linh riquon CO tinh chat lap di lap lai can dp chinh xac cao sd dan dffdc tff ddng hda Cdng vide cua nhffng nghe, nhff: bae sy, luat sff, chuydn vidn tff van tai ehinh, ke' todn vidn se dffdc may mdc thay thd' tffng ph^n dd'n todn bd Kd't qua nghien cffu cua Frey vd Osborne (2013) eho tha'y, khoang 47% viee lam tai My cd the dffde Iff ddng hda mpt de'n hai thdp nidn nffa Nghidn cffu ndy cung da phan tich ddnh gia kha nang cac nghe nghidp bi mdy mdc thay the', dffa xd'p hang 702 cdng viec Theo do, cac cdng vide dffng dau va cud'i danh saeh xd'p hang dffpc khdi quat d Bang Trong cupc CMCN 4.0, tri tud nhan tao phat tridn dffa de'n vide mdy tinh ke't hdp vdi nhffng tid'n bd khoa hpc chi phd'i nhffng vd'n de ve sff sd'ng va ddi sd'ng xa hdi cdng manh Nhffng hieu bid't ve cd ehe' hda sinh cam xuc giup may tinh phdn dodn dffdc hanh vi Cdn ngffdi, tff cd the thay the' ngffdi, tieu bieu nhff la cd che' boat dpng ciia xe tff ldi Robot Idi xe tff ddng giai quyd't tinh hud'ng trdn dffdng lot hdn ngffdi nhd kha nang xff ly cua may tinh va cac cam bie'n cd dp chinh xdc cao dffpc trang bi (chang han td'c dp cua xe ngffdc chieu) Robot lai xe khdng bid't ud'ng rffdu va sff dung chd't kich thich, ndn cd the giup giam ddng ke tai nan giao thdng Khdng chi vdi dieu khien phffdng tidn giao thdng, tri tud nhan tao cd ifu thd' vffdt trdi ve cdc cdng vide cd sff tffdng ldc giffa ngffdi vdi ngffdi, nhff: dam phan thffdng mai, dieu tra tdi pham hay cho vay tin dung Doanh nhdn dd xet thai dp cua ddi tac de de xua't mffe gia Dieu tra vien xet doan tdi pham qua net mat, ldi noi tie'ng thd dai cua ghi pham Chuyen vidn tin dung ngoai vide dffa trdn hd sd cdn sff dung kinh nghidm ciia minh de danh gia dd'i tffdng vay Trong qua trinh trffe gidc boat dpng hay sff dung kinh nghidm, nao bd cua tri tue nhan tao deu tim kid'm de xdc dinh cae hinh mau tffdng tff ve net mat, anh mdt, tff the' qua cd che' smh hda Tri tud nhdn tao vdi nhffng cam bid'n phu hdp cd the thffc bidn cdc edng vide kieu chinh xdc va tin cdy hdn so vdi ngffdi Dieu md kha nang thay the'rpng rai cija tri tud nhan lao cdc nganh dich vii Cong ngh$ tgo viec ldm mdi CMCN 4.0 vffa lam md't di cdc cdng vide dang cd, vffa tao cdc cdng \iee mdi Tuy nhien dffdng nhff 244 Tf-iw' hdp iheo Fr; \ \ a Osborne, 2013 hidu ffng tridt tidu cdng vide dang th^ng thd' Theo nghidn cffu ve "Chffdng trinh Cong nghd va Vide lam" cua Dai hpc Oxford, hien chi cd 0,5% lao ddng d My lam vide cac ngdnh cdng nghd mdi, tha'p hdn nhieu so vdi sd 8% thdp nidn 1980 va 4,5% thdp nien 1990 141 Cdng nghe sd lay di cdng vide eua mpt so' ngffdi, nhffng cting ddng thdi tao nhffng cdng vide mdi Sff ddi cua cdc thie't bi bay tff dpng (drone) se lam mdl so phi cdng ma't vide hay vide d to Iff lai ddi sd lam hang ngan ldi xe tha't nghiep, nhffng cung se tao hdng tram cdng vide lien quan de'n lap trinh, van hanh va bdo dffdng he ihd'ng vdn chuyd'n Iff ddng Bdi VI, de tao va van hdnh nhffng thid't bi bay iff ddng, can nhieu vide lam xoay quanh dd, nhff: lap trinh, van hdnh, bao dffdng va stfa chffa thie't bi va phan tich cdc dff lieu thie't bi thu thdp dffdc Khdng can phi cdng, nhffng d^ trien khai mpt may bay tbam kbdng ngffdi lai thd' he mdi nha't d Trung Ddng quan dpi Hoa Ky can mot nhdm Idn de'n 30 ngffdi, Ngoai ra, mpt may bay cd the thu thap mot khd'i Iffdng dff lidu can de'n 80 chuydn vidn phan tich Trong cac chid'n dich gan day d Trung Ddng, qudn dpi Hoa Ky da khdng stf dung hd't nang Iffc cua mdy bay tham khdng ngffdi lai, thie'u chuyen vien phan tich dff lieu Cdng nghe eiing ddng thdi tao hidu ffng tff ban hoa Nhu cau ve hang hda va djch vu lang len se ddn dd'n sff ddi cua cac cdng vide mdi, cd hpi kinh doanh mdi va tham chi ca nganh cdng \ iec mdi Cdch thffc ldm vifc thay doi Cdng nghe daotao dieu kien de ngffdi lao ddng thay doi each iam \ lee Cone nghd dien thoai thdng minh va internet bdng thdng rpng da giiip cdng vide dffdc thife hidn mpi liic, moi ndi, vffdt qua cac rao edn ve khdng gian vd thdi gian Cdc cdng nghe eung tao sff tich hdp, dan xen giffa lam viec, nghi ngdi va giai tri Cdc nen tang cdng nghe giup ngffdi lao dpng cd the lam vide nhff mpt nhd th^u ddc lap hay mot ngffdi lam vide iff (freelancer) Trffdc day, cdch lam viec chi ddnh cho nhffng ngffdi lam viec ehuydn mdn cd irinh dp cao Ngay nay, cac nen tang (platform) ed th^ kd't ndi ngffdi lao dpng vdi ngffdi sff dung lao ddng mpt each nhanh chdng vd dd dang Do vdy, ta't ca cdc nghe nghidp cd the hoat ddng theo md hinh iff Ngffdi lao dpng dang ky tren cdc n^n tang tao cac "ddm may" lao ddng, Iffdng tff nhff quan nidm ve ddm may dff lidu Lam vide theo kieu tff dang la mot xu hffdng Theo mdt nghien cffu cua Dai hpc Princeton, giai doan 20052015 sd' ngffdi lam vide theo kieu tff d My dd ldng them 67%, lffc Iffdng lao dpng lam viec toan thdi gian theo kieu truydn thd'ng khdng tdng Cung theo nghien cffu nay, 67% nhffng ngffdi lam vide tff hdi long vdi cdng vide, ty le ciia nhffng ngffdi Iam vide U-uyen thd'ng ehi la 32% [2] Nhffng thay doi cd tinh hp qua cua thay dd'i vide lam CMCN 4.0 Thay ddi nhu cdu ve cdc ky ndng cdng vi$c cda ngUiii lao dgng Khi mdt so' cdng vide md't di cung dong nghTa la mdt so' ky ndng thffc hidn nhffng cdng viec dd se khdng cdn gia tri va cdng vide mdi ddi hdi nhffng ky nang mdi Theo Giao sff Yuval Noah Harary (2018), de thich ffng vdi chuyen ddi cdng nghd 4.0, nhffng ngffdi tre tuoi can phat trien ndng lffc: Tff phan bidn, giao tid'p, hdp tde va sdng tao Nha trffdng khdng ndn dat nang gido due ky nang, ky thuat, ma nen chu trpng trang bi cac ndnglffc ehung Kha ndng quan trpng nha't tffdng lai Id thieh ffng vdi thay ddi, hpc hoi nhffng cdi mdi va tri dffdc sff can bting tinh than nhffng linh hud'ng xa la Trong nhifng thap ky ldi, ngffdi khdng chi phai lam mdi cdc san pham va dich vu, ma phai Idm mdi minh Tudi tre la tudi cua thay doi va hpc hdi, nhffng ngffdi trung tuoi mong mud'n dn djnh Cang ldn tudi ngffdi ta cang khd thay ddi, vi da dau tff nhieu \ and Forecasi Revi eho ky ndng, nghe nghiep, quan diem sdng va tinh each Tuy nhidn, thd' ky 21 sd khdng ed sff dn dinh Do vay, tffdng lai, ngffdi ta phai phat trien ndng lffc Iff Idm mdi minh - kha nang phai thay ddi can ban: iff tinh each, nhan sinh quan, thd'gidi quan de'n ky nang nghe nghiep, ne'u khdng mud'n bi tut hau Day la thdch thffc ldn nha't vdi ngffdi lao dpng ti-ong thd'ky 21 Vao n3m 2030, m6t cong nhan may ho^c nhSn vidn ban hang sidu thi mSt vi$c se kho chuydn ngh^ sang lam nha nghien ciiti ung thiT hay ky sif ^hSn tich dif Ii$u Tmh tr^ng co t h l d i n dd'n si^ xuSft hi^n cua mOt "thd'h$ vd dung " (useless class) - nhiTkig lao dpng trmh d$ thap khdng tim dtf^c vi$c, Iai thid'u nhihig nh§n lUc trinh dO cao co thd^ dam nfai^m dU^c cac cdng vi$c mdi Thay doi cda h^ thdng gido due vd ddo tgo theo nhu cdu cua xd hgi Trong thd'gidi bung nd thong tin hidn nay, hpc sinh can dffdc phdt trien ky nang xff ly thdng tin, tff dd cd the ehpn Ipc dffde thdng tin hiJu ich Cde em ciing can cd kha nang linh hoat ve tinh than va kiem soat ve cam xiic Tuy nhien, vide cd dffdc nhffng kha nang se khd hdn hpc kid'n thffc ra't nhieu, vi khdng the cd dffde sff vffng vang ve tinh than hay can bang cam xiie bang edch dpc sdch hoae nghe giang Cupc ddi ngffdi cd the dffdc chia giai doan, dau tidn la giai doan hpc tap keo dai cho dd'n khoang 20 tudi, sau dd la giai doan di lam Trong giai doan hpc tap, chiing ta thu thap thdng tin, hinh tinh each, thid't lap thd'gidi quan Ngffdi ta ed the di lam tff nam 17 tuoi, nhiftig vdi nam dau eP ban van la hoc vide Tffdng Iff, giai doan sau, ngffdi ta ed the van hoc, nhffng dd chi la bo sung, cung cd nhiing gi da cd d giai doaji trffde Tuy nhien, eude CMCN 4.0, tbi hinh mdu giai doan cua eude ddi eon ngffdi se khdng cdn dffde tri Do sff thay ddi ddi sd'ng xd hpi didn manh me hdn, cdng vdi mdi tho cua eon ngffdi tang len, cupc ddi ngffdi ed th^ chia nhieu giai doan hdn, chff khdng ehi la giai doan Sau di lam 20-25 nam, ngffdi lao ddng khdng the tie'p tuc lam cdng viec cu, bi tri tue nhan tao thay thd', nen mdt lan nffa phai quay lai giai doan hpc tap de trang bi ky nang eho mot nghe mdi - quy trinh cd the phai tidp tuc nhieu lan mot ddi ngffdi Thay doi h^ thdng bdo trdxd hgi Mdt vd'n de dat ra, cac cdng vide mdi deu ddi hdi trinh dp cao, ndn se khdng de dang giai quye't va'n de thd't nghiep Vao nam 2030 mdt edng nhan may hoac nhan vien bdn hang sidu thi ma't vide se kho chuyen nghe sang Iam nhd nghidn cffu ung thff hay ky sff phan tich dff lieu Tinh trang ndy cd the dan ddn sff xud't hidn eiia mdt "thd'hd vd dung" (useless class) - nhffng iao ddng trinh dp tha'p khdng tim dffdc viec lai thie'u nhffng nhan lffc trinh cao cd the dam nhidm dffdc cac edng vide mdi [4] 245 De tdng thdm vide Idm, quan nidm vide lam cd the dffdc md rpng Rat nhieu cac cdng vide, nhff: chdm sdc tre em, ngffdi gid, ngffdi tan tat dffdc thffc hidn, nhffng hien khdng dffdc eoi Id vide Idm Nd'u nhiihg viee dffdc ehinh phu nhin nhan vdi day du tinh nang cua vide ldm, thi dd se Id mot khd'i Iffdng vi^c lam khdng id Chinh phii se chi trd cho cdc ba me de hp cham sdc nhd - thffe te nhieu nffdc phat trien dd ehi tra trd ca'p chd cac cap vd chdng sinh Trong trffdng hdp, cdc edng vide mdi chi bii ddp dffpe mpt phan cde cdng vide ma't di, se dan tdi tinh trang thd't nghidp hang loat Khi dd, he ihd'ng bao trd xa hdi phai eung ed'p trd ca'p cho "the'he vd dung" vdi sd Iffdng Idn De cd ngudn tai chinh, chinh phu phai ddnh thud'cao ede ly phu cdng nghe Thay vi tidn trp ca'p, chinh phu cung cd thd' eung cd'p cde hang hda vd dich vu thie't yd'u ebo nhffng dd'i tffdng dffde bao trd Hinh mdu ciia hinh thffc trd ca'p cd ban da xua't hidn d nhieu nffde Nam 2017, Phan Lan khdi ddng mpt chffdng trinh phu cap ed ban thi diem eho mpt nhdm 2.000 ngffdi Mdi ngffdi so' hp dffdc lmh 560 Euro/thang, dii hp cd vide lam hay khong Cac chffdng trinh iffdng tff ciing dffdc thffc hidn d dnh Ontario (Canada), thdnh phd'Livorno (Italia) va nhieu phdd Ha Lan [4] M O T s d HAM Y CHINH SACH Trffdc nhffng tdc ddng cua CMCN 4.0 dd'n vide lam, va'n de dat Id phai tao dieu kien md rdng cd hdi vide lam cho ngffdi lao dpng vdi vide kip thdi dieu chinh chinh sdch thich ffng vdi xu hffdng vide lam mdi, trffdc nha't can thffc hien mdt so' dieu chinh cd ban nhff sau: Mpt la, c^n sdm thd'ng nha't nhan thffc xdc dinh ro tdc dpng cua thdi cd va thdch thffc dd'i vdi nffdc ta tii CMCN 4.0 Hoan thidn he thd'ng phdp luat ve gido due va ddo tao nghe Cd cd che'chinh sach khuye'n khich day manh xa hpi hda gido due vd ddo tao nghe Day manh iff chtf cac trffdng dai hpc day nghe; thi diem quy dinh ve ddo tao nghe, dao tao dai hpc dd'i vdi mdt so nganh dac thti Nang cao nhdn thffc ve gido due va ddo tao nghe, de ngoai trach nhidm ciia cd sd giao due giao due va ddo tao nghe, cdn cd trach nhidm cua doanh nghidp (ngffdi sff dung lao dpng) va ddc bidt la eua ban than ngffdi lao dpng Hai la, hoan thien chid'n lffde tong thd', he thd'ng cd che', ehinh sach ve phdt trie'n nguon nhdn lffc cha't Iffdng cao Chien lffde phai xac dinh ro muc tidu, quy md, Id trinh va nhffng cd che', chinh sach tdng did' Trong do, muc tidu chidn Iffdc phai ffu tidn khdc phuc mau thudn giffa phdt trien \ e sd Iffdng, cha't Iffdng va ed ca'u; xdc dinh quy md, sdlffdng va cd ca'u eua ti^g loai nhdn Iffe eho phu hdp Chien Iffpc cOng xay dffng 16 trinh tiiffc hidn mdt each hdp ly, cd tinh dff bao cao, xdy dffng va^hoan thi$n eP che', chinh sach dac thii dd' phdt trid'n ngudn nhan lffc cha'l Iffdng cao mdt cdch loan dien va ddng bd Ba la, ga'n ke't chat cbe giffa qud tnnh ddo tao vdi bdi dffdng va sff dung nguon nhan lffc cha't Iffdng cao Cdc cd sd ddo tao can phai dan chu, cdng khai cdc tidu chi, hffdng di hoc va stf dung cdn b6 de' lam tang tinh tich cffc, chii dpng cho ca ngffdi hoc va ddn vi stf dung Cac ed sd dao tao phai ludn coi trpng quan Iy td't chd't Iffdng "san pha'm dau ra" thdng qua cac hinh thffc ddnh gid nang Iffc thffe hdnh cua hpe vidn qua trinh dao tao, phue tra ke't qua dao tao, kd't qua td't nghidp thay cho each quan ly "san pham dau vao" nhff hien Chu trpng phffdng phap giao due va day nghe cho ngffdi lao ddng cd kha nang lid'p nhan eae xu the' cdng nghe san xud't mdi, can tdp trung vdo thuc dd'y ddo tao ve khoa hoc, cdng nghd, ky thuat, ngoai ngff Bie'n thach thffc dan so' cung gia tri "ddn sdvang" Idi thd'trdng hpi nhap va phdn cdng lao ddng qud'c te' Bd'n la, id chffe he thd'ng thdng lin vide Iam dd' ngffdi lao ddng thuan tien tie'p can; hd trd ngffdi lao dpng nang cap ky ndng hoac trang bj ky ndng mdi cho ngffdi lao dpng de thich ffng vdi yeu cdu mdi cua vi tri vide Iam bd'i eanh CMCN 4.0 dang lam thay doi ca'u true thi trffdng lao dpng Cd ed che' tao dieu kien cho doanh nghidp tao vide lam, trdnh sa thai lao dpng d at, md cde chinh sach ffng phd vdi CMCN 4.0 chffa phdt huy tdc dung kjp thdi.G TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Arun Sundararajan (2016) Nen kinh lichla se, saeh dich, Nxb Tre McGovem M, (2017) Nen kinh tiiudo sdeh dieh, Nxb Lao ddng Schwab, K (2016) Cdch mang Cong nghiep ldn thff Tu, sdch dich Nxb Thd'gidi Cari Benedikt Frey and Michael A Osborne (2013) The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerization? Oxford University Yuval Noah Harary (2018) 21 Ussonsfor21 century Jonathan Cape 246 ... cua cac cdng vide mdi, cd hpi kinh doanh mdi va tham chi ca nganh cdng iec mdi Cdch thffc ldm vifc thay doi Cdng nghe daotao dieu kien de ngffdi lao ddng thay doi each iam lee Cone nghd dien... ehi la 32% [2] Nhffng thay doi cd tinh hp qua cua thay dd'i vide lam CMCN 4.0 Thay ddi nhu cdu ve cdc ky ndng cdng vi$c cda ngUiii lao dgng Khi mdt so' cdng vide md't di cung dong nghTa la mdt so'... nhan tao thay thd', nen mdt lan nffa phai quay lai giai doan hpc tap de trang bi ky nang eho mot nghe mdi - quy trinh cd the phai tidp tuc nhieu lan mot ddi ngffdi Thay doi h^ thdng bdo trdxd