NHỮNG yếu tổ ẢNH HƯỞNG cán cân THƯƠNG mại VÃNG LAI VIỆT NAM (2)

Nhi?ng yéu Id énh huéng dén cén cén téi khoén véng lai ciia Vi§t Nam giai do‹¿n 1992-2001 Jiinh IG md quan trién tot cua mot nén kinh ID ma co oai c1it‹Jc t1u’ii vvo dé bi1 dfip’ kliciang cach gicta Kh$i ni(im tiii kho iin a nu'cIc Can erm toén quoc té ID iuot 6:in céo thong ké cé h9 thong cua mot quoc gia‘ p=hi chép lat tiit c:i nhflng giao dich kinh té D°ay la phan cuoi cling bang toén quoc té Pharr nity dude si'i dung dé ghi lai nhftng giao dich lién quan dén d thiidng ng$n hang trfl trung tiring cua tf:› chilc ntiy, tit dé difa céc "chUdng trinh on dinh hoa" dupe khuyén ngh) cho céc nu‹ic dang g p m$t cén dot trén cén cén toan quoc té Nh’i1ng bi(n phap thUiing IMF khuyén nghi sit dqng la han mfic UTI dung (cung cau tién I() va phé gié Mo hanh Mundell- Fleming diicic biét dén nhat thuic phan :inh thu nhttp quite dan dé Pllt dong nhat thfic CA = Y - A Trong hfJu dqng vi(c CA la cén can Hi khotin vang lai, Y la phan tich kinh té mo ciia mot nén kinh té thu la tong chi tiéu niték: nén kinh té nhain d:yt céc inuc tiéu nhu triidng kinh té) va can bang bén ngoai (cén y, can Hi kho:in vang lai, can can tai kho3n von) Mo hinh Mundell - Fleming dila ke’t lu(an la cac chinh sach kinh té lién tqc ‹lat dilcic c:i inqc tiéu cfin bllng bén lan muc tiéu can bltng bén ngoai Trong no› hinh dé thi can can Hi khoiin vang lai chin tiic d(ong ciia ty gié hoi doai, Hi suat, va mile tllng trifling kinh té niffic va ngoai niJoc • PhUcing ph‹ip tiép‘ ccin cha trit!‘ctng phi:ii fién Ie) Trifling phiii tien I( cho rllng nhftng tr:jng th:ii khac ciia c:in can Hi kho:in viing lai chi la mo)t hi(n tu‹ing tién I( Vi vily nhftng cong cq ciia chinh each tién IQ (cung cau tién I() co the diéu chinh trang thai cén can Hi khoan vang lai Tritdng phai tién t( bhng viéc sfi dqng céc cling cq chinh sach tién t( dé phan tich dién bién e:in can Hi khoan vang lai da di dén két lu(an rang ngan han nh rig thay quan gifta thu nh p chi nhiéu h‹in thu nh a( p va ngupc lai Vi va( jj n diéu chinh cén cfin Hi khoan vang lai thi hay diéu chinh in’tic thu nh p va chi tiéu Nhitng thu nh(ap va chi tiéu thriving cé xu hitting thay doi cung chiéu véii nhau, nén diem r$t quan trpng la moi tildng quan ty Ie thay dfii titling doi ciia hai dai lilpng Truéing phai dé ca) p dén vat tro cua t/iu nhcip u‹i clii tiéu doi viii can ciin Hi khoan vang lai • Phu:ctng phd p tié’p ccin theo en dim The Elasticity approach to the current account) Phifong phép n$y thifdng difdc sit dqng de ph$n tich nhiing bién dong ciia ty' gi:i hot doéi finh hitting nhif thé nao cén cfin tai khoiin vang lai Dé nghién cfiu tae dong cfia pha gia dén can c$n Hi khoan vang lai, Marshall — Lerner da phat trién va chflng minh mfi hinh sau day: gié sit ban dau can can Hi kho:in ‘rig lai dang ci trang thfii can bllng Got Px la dli co dan ci’ia cau vé hitng xuat khau thoo ty gia, Pi la co dan cua c5u vé hang nha) p khau theo ty gié Néu Px + Pi = thi sau pha gia, can c3n Hi khoan vang lai tiép tuc a trang th:ii can bdng, nhfing :inh hifdng cua pha gia NhKng y eu té xuht kh£u vti nh§p khhu da tri(t tiéu l$ri Nllu fix + Pi > thi sau pbé gié, cén tdi kho$n vang lai sé du‹Ic c:ii thi(n Néu fix -I Pi thi sau pha gi:i , c:in can tai khoiin’ vang lai sé bi x:in di Theo triJ0ng phéi nity thi pha gia (ty gi:i hot doéi} cé iinh hifong dén tifng b(o phan t8i khoiin vang lni, nhitng xu hitéf ng, va két’ ijul'cum ciing can can tai kho:in vang lai l8 chua biét, diéu phu thuoc céc thu , tram hi(n thili erm nén kinh té hpn itifer4emporof approach to d6ng nhdt thflc kinh te" = S II Dong nhat thitc cho thhy ch6tili giila tiét ki(in ncidc khoiiii' trén t$1'1iho$n vang lni ph:i n anh init can tqc tit nfim 1970 dén ma khong rdi vho khung hoang Thti: nhat, st khac gifla cac phifong phap tiép ca) n nhfing nhii n to :inh hiidng den n lai Phifdng so co dan va phudng phap chi tiéu phan tich tai kho:in vang lai doc flip voi Hi khoiin von, erm trifling phéi tién I( lai phan tich Hi khoan vang lai moi lién h(e ina) t thiét voi tai khoiin von tint, phif6ng ph:ip he ” co dan va phil‹ing phap chi tiéu cho r.éng pha gia sé :inh hiidng dén can can tai kho5n vang lai, g khong biét chac chieu hitting cua tae dpng dé, chiéu hitting dé phu thio›c diéu ki(n nén kinh té luc da Ngii‹.ic lii phifdng phap tiép ca) n tién I( l:yi clio rilng cit pha gia 1'i c.in can tai khoan v²ang lai sé dupe cai thi(n ngan h n, diui li•an ‹enh hitting ‹lo sé b) tri(t tiéu tiét ki(m 7'/inhfing ti’ l›o,nha tff nnhflng mo hinh dari ti n nhit nha kinh té hpc cho rang lién quan den tiét ki(m dita trén to inf› hinh Mundell-l'“leining dén c:ic mo hinh Hi suat, so thich, lpi titc dcl sau cua trifling phai chi tieu, cc dari ha,y• tién t( déu ph3n tich can can Hi khoan vang lai dia tren céc d’‹›ng thitctng tnai (tratle én flows) va and xem Rogoff, xét nhfin(j nhan n,gfin /ipn (Sachs, tiép c n lién ngd n han rif mijnh nhung 1994) Santo :inh hU‹Jng den dong thu0ng mai la nhan IG quvét dinh 1981) dén dien bién can can tai kho n vfing lai San cuoc khiing hoailg dau mfi cuoi nh fln(; niirn 1970 va h(e thong ty gia hoi doiii co dinh gifia cac quoc gia sup do, in:it c:in dOi trén c:in cén Hi khoiin vang lai va can can toan quoc té trci nén nghiém trpny thi nhiéu nh‹a kinh té hoc d3 tdp trung nghién citu mot each situ sfle h0n ve nhfing iihan to :inli hitting dén I.1i khoa n v?un g lai ’Frony boi canh do, phti‹ing ph‹ip tiép can c:ic nhan to ngan han dilpc ph:it trien dé nghién cifu céc nhan to :inh hitting ‹few can cfin tai kho:in vang lai Xu hiidng ciia phifdng phfip nity la chuyén tit viec nghién cffu cac nhan to anh hifJng den dong thtldng miji sang nhiing nhan tii :inh hilfing cé tinh tain thdi dén cén can tai kho:in vfing lai Cuo‘i c ’urig, iihffng 1y lu(an cua phifcing phép tiép c n cac nhiin to ngtl n han (intertemporal approach dilcic phat trién nhflng nam 1980) da to hint ich trony vi(ec nghién citxi biéri dong cén can Hi khoan viing lvi cua nén kinh te mo nhiéu nghién cffu dUpc cfing bo glln day (Obsfeld and Rogoff, 1994) Phitong phap tiép c n nity duta trén ea z m‹›t lii, tit ciic Trong qua trinh c:ii c:ich kinh té fi Vi(t Nam t’it ndm 1986, IQ hda cite giao dich tiii khoén viing lai 6ua.c tién hanh trif‹ie tiJ hfia tai kho:in vdn vé da dat dUpc mpt sfi" ket gut dang khich l§, gép phfin quan trpng thuc dily qué trinh hoi nh(ap kinh te quoc té ciia Vi(t Nam nhi2ng nam cuoi the ky' XX, dc›ng nhat thfic kinh té vi md› can can tdi khoan vang lai la hi(u so giiia tiet ki(rn vii dttu tit; hut ffi, cite quyét dlnh liéri quan den • héa tieing mpi Nhi2ng thay doi vé chinh séch thifcing miji, IQ gié hen doai, dhu tit node ngoai doe.c tiet ki(in vh dfiu tit ditcic dia trén nhilng nh:in to ngiln han nhit: Hi suéft, ty gi:i, thu nh(ap, bifin do( ng gia c:i, sfi thich Vi v(ay, cén mm 1990 Trong dé, chinh qc coi nhil mot hien titling rb tinh rigdn han ni u nhtln6 I thuyét vé rihan to anh hUdng dén can can tai khoiin vang lai vii nhitng nghién ciiu thifc té khsic, cé thé torn tat nhfing nhiin to anh hu'cIng din erm can ’th kho:in vang lai ciing nhit chieu hUfiiig tae dong hang BANG 1: Nhii'ng nhfin ID tac d rig dén cén can tiii khoan véng lai cor lii nhiing diém t:inn cua qué trinh cai each nen kinh ID Vi(t Nam nhilng each IU thUong mai dong m/ot vat tri› quyét d)nh giai dean chuyén doi d6, vii d6ng gdp tich cutc cho nhflng qua cua nén kinh te th(ap ky qua Tit hoa thUdng mai ciia Viet Nam cé the" dUpc t6ni tht fi mot so ‘i duunn g sau: guy d(nh han ché viéc tham gia thu0ng miii quoc Ie ciia cfc doanh nghi(ep; (2) Losii bfi nhiing quy d;inh kiem soat, Sri di.nh khoi Jifong xu t, nh)ap hhau; (3) Sila doi vii ban h:inh h( thong thué xuIIt, nh p khau phu hdp; (4) Tham gia vao cac hi(ep dirih thtfdng mai song phif0ng va da phUdng; (I›) Dd bfi dan nhilng quy dinh vé kiém soft ngoai hot, Cac bi(n phap :ip dung cho vi(c chuyen giao thu rih p t’ir dau tu, Hi su6t, luring va kiéu hot curig dif pc tit hfia dim giai dean ciing g6p phd n gran trpng vao viec tit lifia cac giao dJch trén tlii khoan véng lai Chirih siich th hoa nity dii c6 tac dung tfch cfc cho luong kieu hot I’ii mtce moM chay Vé’Vie) t Nam tang kha csio nhi2ng Vi I Nam c6 tai khofin vang lai b;i thiim hut suot nhiéu nam qua (trit nam‘ 1999- 2000) va d c bi(t riilm 1996 ditpC d:1nh gif la da tham hqt dén mite béo d(ong Vi v a) y, néu lihoan vfing lai sé giup chiing ta tranh dupc trii ldi ditpc can hfii "Nhiing nhan to nao t:ii kho:in x aiig lai b] thfim hut vifdt qua puyét dJnh d6n sq bitfn dong cua tai k1io:in mile co the ohiu dutng va tr/unh dif pc mot vang lai?" c6 thd hilu fch cho cac i oach cu(oc khung ho:ing co thé xay nhci luon gift nha clinh chinh aaoh kinh té Biét nhftng nlian to Hi khoan vfing lai thfim hut d miic cho dGng sau eu bién dong cua can c:in tfii phép Ntim l'J9l 6.3 17,97 18,79 13.2 151 -1,91 1992 5,6 21.2 20,43 16,3 17.6 -0,08 1993 8,1 2fi,6 l f›4.111 17,4 25,3 -5›,9R 1994 5,8 35.bl 26 l 6,5i 25,i -7,.52 199› 9,5 2-11,22 43,54 17,3 27,1 -10.diii 1996 9,3 41 15 38,94 16,7 27,9 —11,5 I'997 8,2 24,64 -0, 19 l 6,5i 27 -8 1998 5,8 2,41 - 1.09 19,1 25.6 -3,9 1999 4,8 23,32 I, I 26.5 21 4,5 2010 6.75 23,99 30,78 27,3 25.6 1,7 2001 6.25 4,2 I 27 29,5 -2,5 2fD2 7.G4 I I ,2 22, I 25›,6 27,2 -1.6 2tJf)3 7.24 Tif nhfing dien hié“n ciia Hi khoan v;ing lai trong= t liéi glaTl 1990-200 1, co thé chia nh ting dién bién ba giai doan: • Gioi daon 1990-1992 ly nliiing khoiin giao dich v:ing lai inot chiéti Nh‹i in(ot toat chinh each doi mcii dilnc lap dung, rift in 1993 Idrig trildng xu at, nh(a p kh a u déu t hang Kiin nyach xiiat nh(ap khéu n±m 1993 la 65fJ0 tri(u USD so véli 3400 tri u USD mm 1990 • Giai doan 1993-1997 n nh %GDP i o 96, i h Oi vfli kim ngach xu£t nhhp khau tilng ID mite tham hut cua cén cén thifdng mai vii can can tlli khoén vang lai cang tang Mfic tham hut dat dén dinh diém van ndm 1996, va nhiéu nha phdn tich cho rhiig, la rnitc dang bao dpng can co céc chinh sach kinh té giam b‹it mifc d(o tham hut dé Milc tha in hqt cang ton trén cén can thifdng mai va cén cén Hi khoan vang lai la két qua mot phlln b‹1i mfic téng trifdng nhilp khtiu khé ldn, chu yéu la nh(ap khau thiét bi va nguyén v8t li(u cho qua trinh san xudt Tuy cd cau nhfjp khau la tilting doi lanh manh, nhiing mifc tham hut cao ciing tain cho nhiéu nha hoach d]nh chinh sach va phan tich kinh Ie to ngai Trén mot hiI‹ing phan tich khéc thi mflc tham hqt trén Hi khoiin vang lai la miic tang trifdng ciia dau tit cao hdn so vdi tdng trifdng tiét ki(m, vi vay hi(u so giila tiét ki(m va dan tit chinh la can can tai kho:an vang lai sé bi th3m hut Tuy nhién tong dau tit cé nguon goc nifdc ngoai thi dan tit trite tiép nifdc ngoai chiém ty' I( kha ldn, diiy la nguon goc ciia th3m hut can can tai khoan vang lai, nhién hinh thilc dau tit nity lai difpc cac nha phén tich dénh gia lii tich cijc cho siJ phat trién kinh té Vi v y, th3m hijt tiii khoan vang lai la co thé chép nh(an • Giai daan 1998-2001 Cuoc khiing hoang tai chinh tién t( chair A mm 1997- 1998 da co nhiing anh hifonp= tiéu cijc nén kinh té céc nu‹ic khu vtfc, cé Vijet Nam Sij khéc gifia Vi(t Nam vh mot so nitfic khac la, Viét Nam chi b'i iinh hitting gién tiép cac nuoc nhif Malaixia, Hdn Quoc, Thai lan, Indd:›néxia la tritc ti“e’p Nhiing anh hUdng dén Vi(t Nain chinh la: (I) Xuat nh(ap khati v‹ii tdt c:i cac niféic bJ khung hoang déu giiim shit nghiéin trpng; (2) Mitc dhu tit triJc tiép nif‹ic ngoai gram di ro ret (bdi trittic d6 dau tit triJc tiép niitlc ngoai dén Viet Nam tit cac nif fic chiém ty Ie khé léln) da lam mftc tilng tril0ng kinh té cua Viet Nam gi3m theo; (3) Dong tiéri cac nif tic khéc cu(oc khung hoiing da gram gié di rat nhiéu llln, m8c dii dong Viet Nam ciing gram gia nhiing v‹ii mfJc dp thap hon, vi vay sflc canh tranh ciia hiing Viet Nam trén thJ trifong quoc té b) suy giam theo; (4) H( thong ngfin hang da boc lo nhiéu diem yéu nhit: nd qu:i han t$ng cao, khong dap if ng diipc nhu cau ngoai té cho cac doanh nghi(ep Triffic boi ciinh dé, Chinh phu Vi(t Nam da ép dung nhiéu bi(n ph:ip de thuc dtiy tilng triffing kinh té: han ché nhép khau hang tiéu diing, kich thich xuat khdu Nhfing hi9n ph:ip dé da cé tac dung nhh t dinh viec hqn ché nh(ap khfiu Thém vao la vi(c suy giam dau tit niféic ngohi cling d8n den han ché nh(ap kh6ii linh ki(en, nguyén vat lieu, vi v a) y can can tai kho:in véng lai Vi(t Nam d:i thang dif mm 1999, 2000 NhiZrtg nfiéri t‹i’ cinh hrctng deft cfiri fin tfii lihonfi i›fin fur •7'‹ing tru’‹iiig £in?t té’ Nhin chung giai do:yn 1990- 1997, tdng trifong kinh Ie ciia Viét Nam luon dat toe dfi cao, nam sau cao h‹1n ndrn trif‹1c Tuy nhién, di kéin v‹ii dieu dé lii ini?c thfim vang lai cling cang cao Tii mftc ting trufing GDP dat 4, 7%« ndm 1990 den 8, 1%» nhm 1993, 8,8%« nain 1994, 9,5%› nam 1996, 9,3"Zo ndm 1596 va 8,2'Z« ndm 1997 Tit ntim 1998 t$ng triidng kinh té cé dau hi(u suy giam rd› r(t xuong 5,8'Z« ntim 1998 Trung binh thng trildng giai doan 19901997 la 7,93% giam xuong cén 5,9"• giai doan 1998-2001 Dien bién tang tru'dng kinh té va mfic tham hqt ciia can can t²ai khoan vang lai giai doan 1990-21101 difoc biéu dien hhiinnhh sau DO TH!º: 'I’£ng trifang kinh té vd cén T5ng trtféhg Xinh té(%) • “t k:i in va dan tit Mi» quan h( giila tiét ki(m, dau tU va cén c$n tiii khoan vang lai la mot diem rat ditqc coi trpng nhiing ph;in tich kinh té ThiJc trang dién bién cua tiét ki(em, dau tu, cén can Hi khoan v3ng lai Vi(t Nam 1990-2001 ciing cho thay moi quan h( Dau tit nUoc ngoai can dUpc coi l'a nguon Hi trd cho th a in hut tré n can ean t a i khoa n vang lai Tit n$m 1992 dén nilm 1997, dau tu tritc tiép nctéic ngoai vao Vi(t Nam luon tilng véii ty I( rfit cao va gop phfin quan vao thiinh tifu kinh té cua Vi(t Nam Tuy nhien, giai doan nay, di v‹li ‹lau tit nitfic ngoai tang 1:1 vi(c nha) p khau may méc, nguyén v(at li(eu tting theo ciing la nguyén nh:in d:In dén thfim hut can can tai khoan vang lai DO TH] 2: Can erm tiii kholin viing lai, tiét ki(em va dau tit Viet Nam 1990-2001 411 ('6GDP) D4u ttt(?«GDP) 1999 2000 2001 Cj\n c4n Di khoén vkng lai (³«GDP) Dien bién cllinh ciia tiét ki(m, dau tit, can cfin Hi khoan vang lai ditpc ta biéu dfi trén • TQ gici lio’i docii DO THI 3: Dién bién ty gi3 hoi doéi th c va cén can tar khoiin vang lai Vi(t Nam 1990-2001 Chinh siich ty gift hoi do:ii giai dean nghién ciiu ditpc xom la mot chinh sach quan trpng ciia qu:i trinh doi mai, cai to né n kinh Ie Tu vi(c thong nh fit cac ché dfi ty gia kha c nh iiu Up dung cho c:ic giao dich (Index ³/›) Cén c1n téi khoén khéc ve mot cd ché d uy nhd t, dén nhft ng quy dinh dam b:to ty gift lfi tin hi(u thi trticing quyét dinh da co dong gé›p 1990 (Y›GDP) 1995 2000 rat quan tr png clio tién trinh phét trién nén kinh té thi trUdng gia hot doéi danh nghia ditcic diéu chinh theo hitfing gi:inn gi:i dong Vi(t Nam, 19 ... véng lai Chirih siich th hoa nity dii c6 tac dung tfch cfc cho luong kieu hot I’ii mtce moM chay Vé’Vie) t Nam tang kha csio nhi2ng Vi I Nam c6 tai khofin vang lai b;i thiim hut suot nhiéu nam. .. :inh hiidng den n lai Phifdng so co dan va phudng phap chi tiéu phan tich tai kho:in vang lai doc flip voi Hi khoiin von, erm trifling phéi tién I( lai phan tich Hi khoan vang lai moi lién h(e... nén kinh té céc nu‹ic khu vtfc, cé Vijet Nam Sij khéc gifia Vi(t Nam vh mot so nitfic khac la, Viét Nam chi b'i iinh hitting gién tiép cac nuoc nhif Malaixia, Hdn Quoc, Thai lan, Indd:›néxia