TẠP cui CÙNG THMG FACTORS AFFECTING VIETNAMS EXPORTS OF GOODS TO ASEAN COUNTRIES OVER THE PERIOD FROM 2000 TO 2019 • VITHI THANH XUAN - TRAN MINH TUAN - IE THI VIET HA ABSTRACT: This research investigates the factors affecting Vietnams goods exports to ASEAN countries over the period from 2000 to 2019 This researchs results show that Vietnams exports of goods have increased as Vietnams GDP per capita and GDP per capita of Vietnams importing partners have improved In contrast, transportation costs of Vietnam which are based on the geographic distance have a negative impact on the countrys exports of goods This researchs results confirm the positive relationship between exports and real bilateral exchange rate These results are important for the process of making trade policies of Vietnam to promote Vietnams exports of goods to ASEAN countries Keyword: exports, Vietnam, ASEAN, trade Introduction Exports have played an important role in the economic development of many developing countries in recent years.Over 25year-regional integration process, Vietnam has actively and proactively joined hands with ASEAN member countries to develop the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) which was officially launched on December 31, 2015 Until now, ASEAN has become one of the most important trading partners and an important driving force for Vietnam to maintain its economic growth over the years.Therefore,this paperpresents a general review of the trade relationship between Vietnam and ASEAN countries The paper also analyzes the factors affecting Vietnam's exports to ASEAN countries in the context of the AEC 264 SỐ25-Tháng 11/2021 Theoretical framework and research methods 2.1 Theoreticalframework Exports and imports are two inseparable activities to form a general flow of international trade.Assuming two countries A and B have an exchange relationship, the quantity of goods exported from country A to country B is also the amount of goods imported by country B from country A Therefore, when studying the factors affecting the exports of goods of a country, it will not only lie within that exporting country but also directly related to the importing country.The study of Dao Ngoc Tien (2010) simulates the factors affecting international trade flows by main groups of factors and these groups are specified in Figure QUẢN TRỊ-QUẢN LÝ Figure Model of gravity in international trade Factors influencing international trade flows Push Source: Dao Ngoc Tien (2010) In which, the group of factors affecting the supply of the exporting country (reflecting the production capacity of the exporting country) includes: size of the economy (GDP) and population size.The group of factors influencing tjhe demand of the importing country (reflecting tihe purchasing power of the importing country 2.2 Research methods On the basis of the above-mentioned theory and some similarities in natural, economic and social conditions with Vietnam, the model for estimating and testing the factors affecting Vietnam's exports to ASEAN in the context of the AEC has the following specific formulation: market) includes population size and economic size (GDP) Thegroup of attract! ve/hindering factors includes policies to manage or encourage export/import and the gap between the two countries (usually in terms of geographic distance and development level gap economy) All three groups of factors play a very important role in the commodity exchanges and goods circulation between importing country and exporting country They not only affect the importer but also push the exporter and they ^mprove the effectiveness and speed of goods Circulations + fainPGDPi, + pỊỈnDISị + 0ẠTIGAt + PịAECị + uit Where: xit: Export turnover of goods from Vietnam to ASEAN countries z, year t ERit: Average real exchange rate between Vietnam and ASEAN partner countries i, year t PGDPỵ Pooled GDP (Pooled Gross Domestic Products per capital) of Vietnam and ASEAN member countries i, year t DISị' Geographical distance of Vietnam and ASEAN/ So 25-Tháng 11/2021 265 TẠP CHÍ CƠNG THƯƠNG ATIGA- Dummy variables take value = from 2010, after the ATIGA agreement officially took effect AEC' Dummy variables take value = from 2016, after the formal establishment of the ASEAN economic community This model will estimate for the dependent variable which is the total Vietnams export turnover of goods estimated results of each model are also different.To choose the appropriate model,this paperconducts Breusch-Pagan Test (xttestO) to choose among OLS and FEM / REM and Hausman Test to choose between FEM and REM.Through testing, we see that the REM model is consistent and reliable Multicollinearity isverylowand has almost no effect on the standard errors Table Synthesis of hypotheses about the impact of variables in the model The trend of the Independent variables influence exports VARIABLES ER/f + PGDPịị + DlSj - ATIGA (dummy variable): ATIGA= i;from 2010 onward ATIGA = 0: before 2010 AEC (dummy variable) + The effectiveness of the agreement will increase Vietnams exports + AEC= i.-from 2016 onward Establish an economic community in the region will contribute to promoting AEC=0: before 2016 exchange of goods among countries Data source is from WorldBank (World Development Indicators) and Government Statistics Organization (GSO) Pooled OLS method was used to estimate the research model However, since observations here vary in both time and space (panel data), the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) and random effects (Random Effects Model - REM) are recommended for analysis.After getting results, the appropriate tests will be conducted in turn to choose the suitable model for the study Estimated results The regression results from the Stata lek LPGDP software have provided the estimation of LI) is factors affecting Vietnam's merchandise AT I GA AEG exports to ASEAN according to OLS, -CODS FEM and REM method.The estimation N r2 results of the models are numbered r2 a respectively (1), (2), (3)and shown in * pchi2 = 0.6247 regional exports to grow strongly, (V_b-V_B is not positive definite) Vietnam's exportsto other countries Source: Model results estimation in the bloc increase by 27% on average Many domestic enterprises Table Results of testing Heteroscedasticity phenomenon are still unknown about the AEC, Collinearity Diagnostics thus growingstrongly, the export turnover of Vietnam too ther RSQRT Squared Tolerance VIE VIE Variable countries in the bloc averagely increases by 27% compared to the 0.2762 1.18 0.7238 1.38 LER 0.8855 0.1145 1.13 1.06 LPGDP previous period when Vietnam did 0.2566 1.16 1.35 0.7434 LDĨS 1.18 2815 not sign the ATIGA 0.7185 AT I GA 1.39 0.2564 0.7436 AEC 1.34 1.16 The dummy variable AEC shows Mean VIE’ 1.32 a positive effect on exports of the establishment of the ASEAN Source: Model estimation results economic community However, the exchange rate increases, Vietnam Đồng (VND) coefficient AEC is not statistically significant, it decreases its prices => increasing the means that this effect is not really clear competitiveness of Vietnamese goods, making Conclusions and recommendations them more attractive => promoting exports This paperassesses the impact of these factors The Pooled GDP (\nPGDPjf) has a positive on Vietnam's exports of goods to ASEAN countries.The econometric model is based on data impact to the export of Vietnam This is completely consistent with the theory.Thelarger collected from 10 ASEAN member countries with theGDPsizeof the two economies is, the stronger secondary data in the period from 2000 to 2019 After running the model with 200 observations, Itheir trade will be Table Breusch-Pagan Test selected between OLS and FEM/REM SỐ25-Tháng 11/2021 267 TẠP CHÍ CƠNG THƯƠNG the study finds out how these factors affecting Vietnam's exports to ASEAN The research results show that, to promote Vietnam's exports to ASEAN member countries in the next time, Vietnam should: Firstly, apply a flexible exchange rate policy Research results show that a flexible exchange rate policy has a positive impact on Vietnam's merchandise exports to regional countries However, the adjustment to increase the exchange rate will cause certain fluctuations in the domestic financial situation in general and deposit interest rates in particular Therefore, the exchange rate policy should be flexibly implemented based on the actual developments of the country's economy in each specific period Secondly, continue to expand and exploit regional markets These are trading partners that have significant influences on Vietnam s exports ASEAN is a traditional market, a strong and potential market for Vietnam's merchandise export, especially partners with strong economies such as Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia In addition, the neighboring country Cambodia must be mentioned In fact, these are always key markets with a high proportion of Vietnam's merchandise imports Therefore, it is necessary to continue to exploit these markets Moreover, it is necessary to promote research to find potential products for the remaining markets such as Brunei, Laos and Myanmar Thirdly, make more effective use of the benefits that regional agreements bring, and apply the appropriate tariff policy AEC economic community has been established, ASEAN member countries have implemented agreements and promoted trade liberalizationin the region In this context, enterprises should change themselves, promote their brands, reputations, improve their production quality to enhance their competitiveness Vietnam in general and each Vietnamese enterprise in particular should constantly attract the best resources, use those resources most effectively for economic development, production and business Ministries and branches need to actively implement measures to propagate, explain and guide agreements, incentives and regulations that need to be complied ■ REFERENCES: Rahman M M (2003), “A panel data analysis of Bangladeshs trade: the gravity model approach", presented at 5th Annual Conference of the European Trade Study Group, ETSG, September 11st-13rd, 2003 Bac Xuan Nguyen (2010), "The Determinants of Vietnamese Export Flows: Static and Dynamic Panel Gravity Approaches", International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(4), 122-129 Đào Ngọc Tiên (2010), “Điều chỉnh cấu thị trường xuất hàng hóa Việt Nam xu thê tự hóa thương mại” Luận án Tiến sĩ kinh tế, Trường Đại học ngoại thương Received date: September 17,2021 Reviewed date: November 1,2021 Accepted date: November 13,2021 2Ó8 So 25-Tháng 11/2021 QUẢN TRỊ-QUẢN LÝ Authors information: Masters student VITHI THANH XUAN Renmin University of China Master TRAN MINH TUAN Sales Manager, Alla Vietnam., JSC PhD.LE THIVIET HA University of Languages and International Studies Vietnam National University - Hanoi CÁC YÊU TỐ ẢNH HƯỞNG TỚI XUẤT KHẨU HÀNG HÓA CỦA VIỆT NAM SANG CÁC NƯỚC ASEAN GIAI ĐOẠN 2000-2019 • Học viên cao học VI THỊ THANH XUÂN Đại học Nhân dân Trung Quốc (Trung Quốc) • ThS TRẦN MINH TUẤN Trưởng phịng kinh doanh, Cơng ty cổ phàn Alia Việt Nam • TS LÊ THỊ VIỆT HÀ Trường Đại học Ngoại ngữ - Đại học Quốc gia Hà Nội TÓM TẮT: Bài báo nghiên cứu nhân tố ảnh hưởng đến xuất hàng hóa Việt Nam sang nước ASEAN giai đoạn 2000-2019 Kết cho thấy, xuất Việt Nam tăng GDP bình quân đầu người Việt Nam GDP bình quân đầu người nước nhập tăng Ngược lại, chi phí vận chuyển thể theo khoảng cách địa lý cho có tác động tiêu cực đến xuất Việt Nam Kết nghiên cứu khẳng định mối quan hệ tích cực xuất tỷ giá hối đoái thực tế song phương Những kết có ý nghĩa quan trọng việc hoạch định sách thương mại, nhằm thúc đẩy xuất Việt Nam sang nước ASEAN Từkhóa: xuất khẩu, Việt Nam, ASEAN, thương mại SỐ25-Tháng 11/2021 2Ó9 ... nghiên cứu nhân tố ảnh hưởng đến xuất hàng hóa Việt Nam sang nước ASEAN giai đoạn 2000- 2019 Kết cho thấy, xuất Việt Nam tăng GDP bình quân đầu người Việt Nam GDP bình quân đầu người nước nhập tăng... Vietnam., JSC PhD.LE THIVIET HA University of Languages and International Studies Vietnam National University - Hanoi CÁC YÊU TỐ ẢNH HƯỞNG TỚI XUẤT KHẨU HÀNG HÓA CỦA VIỆT NAM SANG CÁC NƯỚC ASEAN. .. ý nghĩa quan trọng việc hoạch định sách thương mại, nhằm thúc đẩy xuất Việt Nam sang nước ASEAN Từkhóa: xuất khẩu, Việt Nam, ASEAN, thương mại SỐ25-Tháng 11/2021 2Ó9