Chính sách tài khóa và phát triển tài chính Luận văn thạc sĩ

Léii dttu tiCn toi xin chan thiinh cém on quy Thay, Co Khoa Tai Chfnh Doanh Nghi(ep tru6ng Dai Hpc Kinh Té Thiinh Phfi H6 Chi Minh da tl)n tinh giéng day va truyén dat nhfmg kién thuc quy b:iu théii gian qua Yin g6i Hi cain on sdu sac den co Ho Thiiy Tién, co Nguyen Thi Lien Hoa, c6 Phan Thi Bich Nguyét va thdy Nguyen Khac Qufic Bao da ta)n tinh hu‹ing dtin toi suot qu:i trinh thqc hit:n ludn viin Cém on c:ic vién gia dinh, nguiii than va ban bé d5 d ng vién va giiip dfi toi rat nhit:u suot thiti gran hoiin chuong trinh hpc vita qua Do kh:i nEng va dieu ki(en nghien c6u han ché, nen lua)n sot, cénnhieu thiéu kf nh mong quy Thtiy, C6 va ban dpc thhng cain Toi xin chtin thiinh c:inn on × TP HG Chi Minh, th:ing 09 nam 2013 Tran Phuong Thiiy LIII CAM DOAN Ttii xin cam doan lu(an viin “Chinh s:ich tai khéa va ph:it trién tai chinh” la cC›ng trinh nghit:n ciiu ciia tbi duéi su huting dén ciia TS Ho Thuy Tién Noi dung 1ui)n viin dvicic diic k6t tu ket qua hpc t8p va nghi6n cilu thqc tién thiii gian qua, c:ic s8 lieu sit dung la trung thuc va c‹i ngufin gfic rfi ritng, khbng chép In b8t ky quyén lui)n viin nao TP HP Chi Minh, th:ing 09 narn 2013 Trdn Phuong Thiiy 1Lydochpnde‹%i 1.2 Muc tieu ngluén ctiu 1.4 Cau hai nghién cthi 1.5 Tdng quan c:ic n i dung chinh ciia lui)n vdn 1.6 Cau triic cua luan van , CIIUONG 2: TONG QUAN CAC NG DONG CUA CH N CN TRU C DAY H SACH TAI KHOA DEN CH TAC U SAU TAI CMH 2.1 Michael Kumhof and Evan Tanner (2005) Government Debt: A Key Role In Financial Intermediation 2.2 David Hauner (2006) Fiscial Policy And Financial Development 2.3 R.A Rathanasiri; T.C Wijesinghe (2012) Government Fiscal Operation And Financial Deepening In Sri Lanka 2.4K t u hg g2 .8 3.1 Dii li(u nghién ctiu 3.2 M6h hnghiénc • 3.3 Phuong ph:ip nghién emu 14 3.3.1 Hoi quy dii lieu b:ing 14 3.3.2 Sit dung kiem d Hausman test de kiém dinh tinh thich hpp cua mb CHUONG 4: NOI DUNG VA IT QUA NGHIEN CI J 16 4.1 T6ng quan vé chfnh s:ich tai kh‹5a va ph:it tiién tiii chfiih 16 I CNhh sach tai khéa 16 4.1.2 Phat trién téi chinh 19 4.2 Nghie’n erm thqc nghi(m 24 4.2.1 Hai gia thiét ciia md hinh .24 4.2.2 Ket qua hoi quy ciia 10 nu‹ic Chdu A 27 4.2.2 Giai thich két qua ciia bién doc ldp luéing tin dung c6ng: PUBY, PUBLIC 29 4.2.2.2 Gi:ii thich kt:t qua hfii quy cac bién doc lap ciin tar mG hinh 33 4.3Keilu chu g 35 DANH MUC BANG Bfing 1: hu6ng cfia np chinh phfi d6i viii ng8n hiing dCn ph:it trién tilt chinh theo nghi6n ciiu David Hauner (2006) “Fiscial Policy And Financial Development” B:ing 3.1: Gia thi6t md hinh ciia David Hauner 2006 Béng 3.2: Gia thi6t mo hinh cfia David Hauner 2006 Béng 3.3: Ngufin dli li(u c:ic bién theo mo hinh ciia David Hauner 2006 Béng 4.1: Hai gia thiét v‹ii ky vong k6t qua hfii quy theo m8 hinh ciia David Hauner 2006 B:ing 4.2: Ket quit hfii quy 10 nu‹ic Chau A cua m6 hinh gia thiét theo mG hinh ciia David Hauner 2006 Béng 4.3: Két qua hoi quy 10 nufic Chau A m6 hinh gia thit:t theo mG hinh cua David Hauner 2006 Béng 4.4: Két qua phdn tich theo chieu dpc ciia nhfim PUBLIC cao: bién dC›c ldp PUBY Bang 4.5: Ket qua phdn tich theo chiéu dpc ciia nhfim PUBLIC thdp: bién dGc llip PUBY Bang 4.6: Ket qua phtin tich theo chiéu ngang: bi6n do) c ltip PUBY Bang 4.7: Két qua ph6n tich theo chi6u dpc ciia nhfim PUBLIC cao: bién d(oc 18p PUBLIC " Bring 4.8: Ket qua ph8n tich theo chiéu dpc ciia nhom PUBLIC th5p: bién d c flip PUBLIC Bing 4.9: Ket qua phdn tich theo chieu ngang: bién df›c 16p PUBLIC Hinh 4.1: Chi “ tr:ii phiéu chinh phii / GDP ITmh 4.2: Ty trfing thau huy dong tr:ii phiéu Chfnh phii quy I/2013 Hinh 4.3: LIQUID (ph8n trEm ciia cung tién (M2) trén GDP) Ifinh 4.4: BANK (ph6n trEm tting tfn dung nGi dia trén GDP) Hinh 4.5:PRIVATE(ph6n tram tting tin dung nfii dJa khu vuc In nh6n trén GDP) Hinh 4.6:T8ng qu:it mo hinh Hinh 1: Ty trpng lai tr:ii phie’u / tong thu nhdp Hi ciia c:ic ngdn hiing thuong in:ii Vi(t Nam TOMTAT Chinh sach tai khoa la c:ic chinh s:ich cfia chinh phfi nhdm tdc dung 16n dinh hu‹ing phiit trién ciia n6n kinh te thong qua nhfmg thay dfii chi va thu ngtin s:ich ciia chinh phii Ba cbng cu chinh ciia chiiih s:ich Hi khoa lé chi tiéu ciia chinh phii, h( th6ng thue va tin dung cfing Muc tiCu nghién ciiu ciia lutin vlin la nham x:ie dinh iinh hu6ng ciia tin dung cbng n6i dia d6n su ph:it trién tai chinh cfia 10 nufic Chau A giai do:)n tu 1996 din nam 2011 Sir dung hfii quy du 1i(u b:ing ciia 10 qu6c gia 16 nam (1996 — 2011) v‹ii m6 hinh REM (Panel EGLS — Cross section random effects) va FEM (Panel Least Squares — cross section fixed) Trén cci sci d‹i, 1ui)n van nghién cite énh hu6ng ciia chiiih s:ich tai khfia ma cu th6 la su vay mupn ciia chf nh phii (tin dung c8ng nuoc) v6i ph:it trién tai chf nh ci Vi(t Nam Vi(c nghit:n ciiu giiip cho chfnh phfi c‹i chfnh s:ich tai kh‹ia dung dan vi(c ph:it trién thi tru6ng tai chinh Vi6t Nam hi(n Lufjii van sir dung dii li(u tu ntim 1996 den 2011 ciia 10 nuoc Chhu A co tinh hinh kinh te, tai chinh, miic thu nhdp tuong duong ducic chia thiinh nhém: • Nhfim co h( s8 PUBLIC (tfn dung cbng J t8ng tin dung nbi dJa) cao: Indonesia, Philipine, Georgia, Kyrgyz • Nhfim co h( séi PUBLIC (tin dung cbng / tfing tin dung n0i dia) thJp: Vie’t Nam, Lao, Malaysia, MGng CG, Tmng Quoc, Th:ii Lan • Co gia thiét: • Tfn dung cGng nu6c sC h0 trp cho sq phiit tri6n tai chinh bang c:ich tao khoin nuoc (tao tai sén an toiin) • Tfn dung cGng nuoc sé kiém ham sq ph:it trien tai chinh tfn dung c8ng l8n :it tfn dung tu nhdn • T:ic dcing ciing chiéu ciia tin dqng c6ng nu‹ic den ph:it trién tai chinh ct nhfim PUBLIC thdp nho vao vie( c tang tai sén an toiin, tao kho:in cho nén kinh tf: Dfii v6i c:ic qufic gia co PUBLIC thap (Vi(t Nam, Lao, Malaysia, Mong Cfi, Trung Qufic, Th:ii Lan), tin dung c0ng nuoc giiip ph:it trif:n thi truimg tai chinh giai down khiing hoing hi(n Lui)n van chua ph:it hi(n hien tupng tfn dung cbng nuéic kiém ham su ph:it trif:n tai chiiih dfii v6i nhom PUBLIC thap nhu i Vit:t Nam Tuy nhién, khGng loai tin vi(c tfn dung cong ldn :it tfn dung tit nh6n o Viét Nam T:ic dong ngupc chiéu ciia tin dung cling nufic den ph:it trien tai chinh ltin :it tin dung tu nh8n chi xay ct nhom cé PUBLIC (tfn dung cong/tfing tin dung nt›i dJa) cao Thi truitng tr:ii phiéu nEm 2012 da co bu‹ic ph:it tri6n an tupng, da)c biét la thi truitng tr:ii phie’u chinh phii Khbng chi gop ph6n binh é›n thi truifng tai chinh, sq mo rong • quy mG ciia thi truiing tr:ii phi6u chinh phu giiip tiing khoén cho thi truimg np, hfi trp cho cC›ng t:ic dié›u hénh ng6n s:ich nha nucic • CIIUONG I: GIS TH@U CHUNG iLy chon dé tai: Ngtin hilng Ph:it Trién Chau A (ADB) viia cGng bo c p nhat b:to c:to theo dfii tr:ii phiéu Ch$u A Tai b:to c:to nay, Vi(t Nam tiép tuc dupe d:inh gi:i lé qufic gia co toe dfI tiing tru6ng ciia thi truitng tr:ii phieu chinh phii cao, so v6i ciing ky ntim ngo:ii v6i tfic déi tling trUéfRg la b4,6Ro, dat gi:i tri 29 ty USD vi(c day in:jiih ph:it hiinh tfn phiéu kho bac, tr:ii phieu ngIIn héng trung uong va tr:ii phiéu cua c:ic doanh nghi(p thu c séf him nha nuoc Ngupc lai, thi truéing tr:ii phi6u cbng ty tai Vi(t Nam da gi3m 47,2'7o xu6ng ciin USD Tfic d huy dong ciia tr:ii phit:u chf nh phu tting in nhu vBy la tling tru6ng tfn dung tiép tpc tri o muc thdp, dau lai that cha)t n6n ngufin von h8u hét chuyén vao k:ii phieu Bén c:yth déi, kinh té céi tin hi(u tfit nhimg tiém dn riii ro, iinh hu6ng khiing ho:ing tit kinh tt: thé gi6i cao nen nha ddu In cé xu huéing tim nhfmg not trii 8n an toén Sau cu c khiing hoéng tiii chinh 2008, chinh phii nhiCu nuiic tren thé giéi cé chinh s:ich giam np nuiic ngoiii, tling np cGng dfii v6i c:ic ngdn hang nu‹ic Hp tin rang np c0ng nu‹ic sé it riii ro hon dfii v6i rip nuoc ngoai Trong bfii cénh tinh hinh kinh th tai chinh Vi(t Nam hi(n nay, c:ie ng8n héng thuong mai o at ddu tu vao tr:ii phit:u chinh phii de chdt lupng b:ing c8n doi ke to:in o miic an toén C:ie ng8n hilng gan ddy md tiCn mua tr:ii phiéu chinh phfi dang 1ém dtfy ten nhiing lo ngai vé hu6ng den sq ph:it trién tai chinh nu‹ic Xutft ph:it tu thqc té do, tbi lqa chpn d8 tai “Chinh Stich Tai Khéa Va Ph:it Tri6n Tai Chinh” d6 nghit:n emu vi(c énh hu6ng ciia tin dung c6ng nuoc d6n ph:it tri6n tai chinh l2MuoHéunghién c : Muc tiCu nghit:n ciiu chinh cfia lufyi hieu énh huéing cfia tin dung cling nitric dén sq ph:it tri6n tai chinh cua 10 quoc gia Chtiu A dang ph:it trién, co • miic thu nh(ap trung binh Tit ludn viin rfit kc:t qu:i nghien c6ii vi(c énh hu6ng ciia tin dung cong nuéic den su ph:it trién tai chinh o Via:t Nam 1.3 Doi tupng nghién ctiu va pham vi nghién ctm: < Dfii tupng nghien ciiu ciia lutin tin la dung cfing nuoc va sq ph:it trién tiii chf nh ciia 10 quoc gia Chau A: Viet Nam, Lao, Malaysia, Mong Co, Trung Qufic, Th:ii Lan, Indonesia, Philipine, Georgia, Kyrgyz < Pham vi nghien ciiu la giai doan tit nd 1996 den 2011 1.4 Cau hoi nghién chin: Li(eu vi(c gia tang tr:ii phiéu ng6n hang, cling nhu ph:it trién tin dung cdng nuoc qu:i l6n co énh hu6ng den su ph:it trien tai chinh hay khong? Tin dung c0ng nuoc qu:i 16n co lam lfih :it tfn dung tu nhdn hay khong? 1.5Tong quan c:ic noi dung chinh cfia luan van: , Qu n ly tin dung cGng la mot ph6n quan trpng chinh s:ich tai khfia ciia mot qufic gia Np cong nhu the nao d6 hfi trp su ph:it trien tai chinh Lu8n vfin khang dinh rang “d6‘i v quoc gia cé ty I( tfn dung cong trén tong tin dung no( i d‘;a thap nhu Vi(t Nam, viéc gia tiing tin dung c6ng se hG trp ph:it trien tai chinh bang c:ich cung cdp tai situ an toan” Khi tin dung cong ph:it trién qu:i miic, sC dan den c:ie ngan hang lubn uu tif:n cho vay linh vpc cfing Két qua thu6ng la h( thong tai chinh bi phan khiic thénh c:ie nhom di vay dupc uu dat, thuitng la chinh phii, doanh nghiép nha nuoc c‹i dvicic th dung chfnh thuc véi Hi suat thap; dai da so buo) c phiii di vay ct thi truimg tai chinh ' phi chfnh thuc v‹ii Hi suat rdt cao NO luc cung cdp von ré cho c6ng nghi(p hfia va c:ie dq :in cc sci tdng da tao vdn de vnéii , nghiém trpng nhat la lam cho doanh nghi(p viia va nhfi khong the tiép ci)n tf n dung ii vfjy tin dung cong qu:i cao se ldn :it tfn dung tu nh6n, tain kiém ham su ph:it trién tai chfnh ciia mGt qufic gia 10 World bank (2012), http://data.worldbank.or@indicator ' PQ LUC 1: IT QUA HOI QUY MO HINH GA TXT THEO MO HAH DAVID HAUNER 2006 Gia thiCt 1: Tin dung cfing nuoc se ho trp cho ph:it trien tai chinh bang c:ich tao khoin nu6c (tao tai san an toén) Sir dung bien doc lap lu6ng tf n dung c0ng la: PUBY ‹ tin dijng) can: Indonesia, Nhém cé h( so PUBLIC (tin dung cong / tong Philipine, Georgia, Kyrgyz • • Dependent Variable: LIQUID Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 07J23J13 Time: 21:58 Sample: 1996 2011 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 64 Variable PUBY INCOME INFLATION MARGIN C Coefficient -0.004420 9.832271 0.047507 -0.455878 7.908301 Std Error t-Statistic 0.123431 -0.035807 5.180176 1.898057 0.087084 0.545533 0.144710 -3.150295 16.90902 0.467697 Prob 0.9716 0.0628 0.5876 0.0026 0.6418 Effects Specification • Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.858583 0.840906 6.108132 2089.319 -202.3548 48.57031 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 31.84313 15.31375 6.573588 6.843448 6.679899 0.491620 Dependent Variable: BANK Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 07/23/13 Time: 21:56 Sample: 1996 2011 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 64 , Variable ' PUBY INCOME INFLATION MARGIN C Coefficient 0.126245 -3.992535 0.079199 -0.488378 51.02965 Std Error t-Statistic 0.152503 0.827820 6.400289 -0.623805 0.107596 0.736077 0.178794 -2.731517 20.89169 2.442581 Prob 0.4113 0.5353 0.4648 0.0084 0.0178 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) » R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.864872 0.847981 7.546811 3189.444 -215.8911 51.20296 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 35.01563 19.35592 6.996596 7.266456 7.102907 0.676613 PRIVATE = o + §, * PUBY + § * INCOME + §, * INFLATION + 04 * MARGIN + c Dependent Variable: PRIVATE Method: Panel EGLS (Period random effects) Date: 07J23/13 Time: 22:02 Sample: 1996 2011 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 64 Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances Variable Coefficient PUBY INCOME INFLATION MARGIN C -0.323034 11.05086 0.032615 -1.176567 9.544952 Std Error 0.125926 -2.565268 4.937920 2.237959 0.113008 0.288609 0.130403 -9.022548 16.80304 0.568049 Effects Specification • S.D 793 Period random Idiosyncratic random , t-Statistic Prob 0.0129 0.0290 0.7739 0.0000 0.5722 Rho Weighted Statistics S.E R-squared Adjusted R-squared of regression F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.665125 0.642422 9.683326 29.29632 0.0O0O0O Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Sum squared resid Durbin-Watson stat 24.38578 16.19344 5532.241 0.877735 Unweighted Statistics R-squared Sum squared resid 0.665125 5532.241 Mean dependent var Durbin-Watson stat 24.38578 0.877735 Nhom co so PUBLIC ftin dung cong / tong tin dung) thap: Viét Nam, Lan, Malaysia, Mong Co, Trung Ouoc, Thai Lan Dependent Variable: LIQUID Method: Panel EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 07J23Jl3 Time: 20:59 Sample: 1996 2011 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 96 Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances • Variable PUBY INCOME INFLATION MARGIN C Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob 1.444495 68.05421 0.091459 -0.866983 -124.1922 0.301051 6.534993 0.085942 0.281244 22.66248 4.798166 10.41382 1.064197 -3.082673 -5.480079 0.0000 0.0000 0.2901 0.0027 0.0000 Effects Specification S.D 17.99391 12.57561 Cross-section random Idiosyncratic random Rho 0.6718 0.3282 Weighted Statistics S.E R-squared Adjusted R-squared of regression F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) , 0.642215 0.626488 12.95563 40.83563 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Sum squared resid Durbin-Watson stat 14.37104 21.19856 15274.20 0.561421 Unweighted Statistics R-squared Sum squared resid 0.703015 66620.45 Mean dependent var Durbin-Watson stat 83.49771 0.128718 Dependent Variable: BANK Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 07J24J13 Time: 12:07 Sample: 1996 2011 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 96 Variable • PUBY INCOME INFLATION MARGIN C Coefficient 1.269574 137.4075 0.127158 -0.205914 -351.9992 Std Error t-Statistic 0.530812 2.391758 30.74765 4.468878 0.131700 0.965506 0.443164 -0.464645 96.44690 -3.649668 Prob 0.0194 0.0000 0.3376 0.6436 0.0005 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Period fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.918460 0.890897 17.65328 22126.33 -397.3465 33.32239 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 77.43822 53.44503 8.798886 9.466685 9.068821 0.272918 Dependent Variable: PRIVATfi Method: Panel EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 07J23J13 Time: 20:49 Sample: 1996 2011 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 96 Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances Variable PUBY INCOME INFLATION MARGIN C Coefficient 1.036548 107.0331 0.086904 -1.129657 -251.1154 Std Error t-Statistic 0.409937 2.528556 12.31721 8.689719 0.129851 0.669259 0.369089 -3.060662 39.87701 -6.297247 Effects Specification Cross-section random Period fixed (dummy variables) Idiosyncratic random S.D Prob 0.0135 0.0000 0.5054 0.0031 0.OO0O Rho 10.05846 0.2449 17.66299 0.7551 Weighted Statistics R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.607513 0.509392 19.18267 6.191428 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Sum squared resid Durbin-Watson stat 74.73775 27.38682 27966.09 0.287725 Unweighted Statistics R-squared Sum squared resid 0.814548 48147.25 M€:fiH déJ9ORdéRt Vfif Durbin-Watson stat 74•73775 0.167124 ' 4.2.2.2 Két qua hot quv mo hinh cfia gia thiét 2: Gia thiet Tfn dung cfing nufic sé kiém hiim ph:it trien tai chinh Std dung bif:n d c›c lap luétng tf n dung cling la: PUBLIC Y = o + §, * PUBLIC + § * INCOME + §3 * INFLATION + 04 * MARGIN + Nhém cé so PUBLIC ftin dung cling / thug tin dung) can: Indonesia, Phili ine, Georgia, K vrgyz ' Nhom cé so PUBLIC ftin dung céng / téng tin dungl thap: Viét Nam, Lan, Malavsia, Mfing Cé, Trung Ouoc, Th:ii Lan LIQUID = o + §, * PUBLIC + §, * INCOME + § * INFLATION + 04 * MARGIN + c Dependent Variable: LIQUID Method: Panel EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 07/23/13 Time: 21:01 Sample: 1996 2011 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 96 Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances Variable Coefficient PUBLIC INCOME INFLATION MARGIN C 0.060496 73.05278 0.100267 -0.398857 -140.9581 Std Error t-Statistic 0.047625 1.270252 7.308170 9.996043 0.093036 1.077725 0.318607 -1.251876 28.14554 -5.008187 Prob 0.2072 0.0000 0.2840 0.2138 0.0000 Effects Specification S.D 37.24590 13.59792 Cross-section random Idiosyncratic random Rho 0.8824 0.1176 Weighted Statistics R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.570387 0.551503 13.51550 30.20467 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Sum squared resid Durbin-Watson stat 7.589396 20.18146 16622.86 0.441283 Unweighted Statistics R-squared Sum squared resid 0.545208 102020.1 Mean dependent var Durbin-Watson stat 83.49771 0.071901 BANK = o + §, * PUBLIC + §, * INCOME + §, * INFLATION + §4 * MARGIN + × Dependent Variable: BANK Method: Panel EGLS (Period random effects) Date: 07/23/13 Time: 21:32 Sample: 1996 2011 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 96 Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances Variable Coefficient PUBLIC INCOME INFLATION MARGIN C 0.105589 41.35423 0.136118 -0.416329 -48.31258 Std Error t-Statistic 0.063865 1.653310 9.836552 4.204139 0.123806 1.099440 0.428392 -0.971843 31.82672 -1.517988 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Period random Idiosyncratic random SD 8 Prob 0.1019 0.0001 0.2746 0.3339 0.1327 Rho Weighted Statistics R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.895638 0.884716 18.14645 82.00582 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Sum squared resid Durbin-Watson stat 77.43822 53.44503 28319.25 0.342825 Unweighted Statistics R-squared Sum squared resid 0.895638 28319.25 Mean dependent var Durbin-Watson stat 77.43822 0.342825 Dependent Variable: PRIVATE Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 07J23/13 Time: 20:44 Sample: 1996 2011 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 96 • Variable Coefficient PUBLIC INCOME INFLATION MARGIN C 0.019893 36.74670 0.132463 -0.551392 -35.78479 Std Error t-Statistic 0.063619 0.312699 9.798583 3.750206 0.123328 1.074071 0.426738 -1.292110 31.70387 -1.128720 Prob 0.7553 0.0003 0.2858 0.1998 0.2622 Effects Specification Crosssection fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.892475 0.881223 18.01668 27915.66 -408.5027 79.31283 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 74.73775 52.27666 8.718805 8.985925 8.826780 0.300035 Dependent Variable: LIQUID Method: Panel EGLS (Period random effects) Date: 07/23/13 Time: 22:13 Sample: 1996 2011 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 64 Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances Variable Coefficient PUBLIC INCOME INFLATION MARGIN C -0.188822 -6.452134 0.018029 -0.276939 60.40402 Std Error t-Statistic 0.039226 -4.813747 4.951136 -1.303162 0.072261 0.249503 0.126992 -2.180761 15.86951 3.806294 S.D Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Period random Idiosyncratic random Prob 0.0000 0.1979 0.8039 0.0334 0.0004 Rho 42 Weighted Statistics R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.900246 0.887777 5.130059 72.19746 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Sum squared resid Durbin-Watson stat 31.84313 15.31375 1473.780 0.546721 Unweighted Statistics R-squared Sum squared resid 0.900246 1473.780 Mean dependent var Durbin-Watson stat 31.84313 0.546721 Dependent Variable: BANK Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 07J23J13 Time: 22:10 Sample: 1996 2011 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 64 • Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob PUBLIC INCOME INFLATION MARGIN C -0.094416 27.80309 -0.005117 -0.463980 -38.96541 0.052002 16.78180 0.126320 0.189663 51.80940 -1.815624 1.656741 -0.040510 -2.446341 -0.752091 0.0767 0.1052 0.9679 0.0188 0.4563 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Period fixed (dummy variables) , R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.924371 0.883790 6.598357 1785.071 -197.3186 22.77826 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 35.01563 19.35592 6.884957 7.660806 7.190603 0.890129 PRIVATE = o + §, * PUBLIC + § * INCOME + § * INFLATION + §4 * MARGIN + c Dependent Variable: PRIVATE Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 07J24J13 Time: 12:01 Sample: 1996 2011 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 64 Variable Coefficient PUBLIC INCOME INFLATION MARGIN C -0.341765 33.86960 0.075414 -0.370542 -61.87091 Std Error t-Statistic 0.035309 -9.679345 11.39469 2.972403 0.085770 0.879255 0.128779 -2.877342 35.17811 -1.758790 Prob 0.0000 0.0049 0.3844 0.0063 0.0861 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Period fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.950184 0.923454 4.480225 822.9689 -172.5412 35.54712 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 24.38578 16.19344 6.110662 6.886511 6.416308 0.982727 PH¶ LJJC 2: PH¶ L¶C SO SCH CHI TIEU VE KINH TE TAI CHINH CAC QUOC GIA NGHIEN CN TRONG LUAN VG Miic thu Quoc gia Nen kinh te nhap binh quan dau nguoi Log(Thu nh(ap binh quan dau nguhi) trung binh tir 1996 den 2011 Ty 1( thu nhgp cua nguéi nghéo/ tong thu nhap quoc gia nam 2008 2010 2011 cung tien 2011 '« thfim hut ngan s:ich ndm 2011 Trung Quoc Dang ph:it trien Trung binh 3.19 5.7 10.4 9.2 13.6 Georgia Dang ph:it trien Trung binh 3.09 5.3 6.3 7.0 17.2 Indonesia Dangph:it trien Trung binh 3.06 7.6 6.2 6.5 16.4 Kyrgyz Dang ph:it trien Trung binh 2.66 6.8 -0.5 5.7 14.9 -76 Dang ph:it trien Trung binh 2.67 7.6 7.5 7.8 24.9 -20 Malaysia Dang ph:it trien Trung binh 3.70 4.5 7.2 14.6 Mong Co Dang ph:it trien Trung binh 2.93 6.4 17.3 37.0 -3.6 Philippines Dang ph:it trien Trung binh 3.12 6.0 7.6 3.7 6.3 -20 Th:ii Lan Dang ph:it trien Trung binh 3.42 6.7 7.8 0.1 15.2 Vi(t Nam Dang ph:it trien Trung binh 2.76 7.3 6.8 5.9 12.1 -2.9 -4.0