Quan iy va danh gia du’ an CS TS Werner Doppler TS Dinh Ngoc Lan MARGRAF PUBLISHERS GS TS W erner Doppler; TS Dinh Ngoc Lan Quan ly va danh gia dir an Bibliographic information published by „Die Deutsche Bibliothek" Die Deutsche Bibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data is available in the Internet at http://dnb.ddb.de Layout TS Dinh Ngoc Lan Printing & Binding TZ- Verlag & Print GmbH, RolBdorf © Margraf Publishers GmbH, 2008 Kanalstr 21, P.O.Box 1205 D-97990 Weikersheim www.margraf-verlag.de ISBN 978-3-8236-1516-3 Margraf Publishers I OI Gioil THIEU (PREFACE) Su phat trien cua cac nude hoac cac vung duoc to chuc khung cau true va dieu tiet cac hoat dong theo nhung muc tieu xac dinh Dieu duoc hieu nhu la du an phat trien Lap ke hoach, thuc hien, danh gia va quan ly cac dir an phat trien la nen tang cho viec tao lap chinh sach phat trien cua cac quoc gia cung nhu la cua cac khu vuc Do chinh la noi dung chu chot cuon sach “Quan ly va danh gia dir an” Cac van de tam va phuong phap duoc trinh bay va thao luan ciing voi nhieu vi du minh hoa veri muc dich giup cho cac doc gia hieu ve each thuc quan ly va danh gia du an horn la viec bi loi cuon vao qua trinh cua viec danh gia va quan ly du an phat trien Cuon sach duoc bien soan de lam tai lieu hoc tap va tham khao cho cac nghien cihi sinh, sinh vien cao hoc, sinh vien dai hoc, cho doi ngu nhirng ngubi lam cong tac quan ly du an va cac can bo khuyen nong va phat trien nong thon Day cung la mot tai lieu tham khao thich hop cho cac nha tao lap chinh sach o cac cap khac mot quoc gia Viec bien soan cuon sach “Quan ly va danh gia dir an” dugc dira tren nhieu tai lieu ve ke hoach va danh gia du an cua Giao su Werner Doppler viet nhirng nam 1978, 1985 va 1997 Nhirng tai lieu da duoc Tien si Dinh Ngoc Lan cap nhat thong tin va dich tieng Viet Nam Qua day, tap the tac gia xin duoc bay to su cam on chan den to chuc trao doi hoc thuat Due (DAAD) da tai tro cho cong viec bien soan va xuat ban Cam cm can bo nhan vien vien kinh te nong nghiep va khoa hoc xa hoi ve nhiet doi va a nhiet doi - Truong dai hoc Hohenheim- Cong hoa lien bang Due va truong dai hoc nong lam Thai Nguyen - Viet Nam da het sue ung ho cho cong viec Cam on su phoi hep cong tac giua hai trubng Wemer Doppler - Truong dai hoc Hohenheim Dinh Ngoc Lan - Truong dai hoc nong lam Thai Nguyen MVC LVC (TABLE OF CONTENTS) MCI b AU (INTRODUCTION) 1.1 Thuat ngO va chu trinh du an (Terminology and project cycle) 1.1.1 Thuat ngft (T erminology) 1.1.2 Chu trinh dir an (Project cycle) 1.1.2.1 Giai doan chuan bj (Pre - planning phase) 1.1.2.2 Giai doan lap ke hoach (Project planning phase) 1.1.2.3 Giai doan thuc hien du an (Project implementation phase) 1.1.2.4 Giai doan sau thuc hien du an (Operating phase after implementation) 1.2 Khai niem phuorng phap (Methodological concept) 1.2.1 Phan tich van de (Problem analysis) 1.2.2 Phan tich muc tieu (Objective analysis) 1.2.3 Phan tich sir phat trien (Development analysis) 1.2.4 Lap ke hoach du an (Project planning) 10 MUC BICH VA MUC TIEU (GOALS AND OBJECTIVES) 13 2.1 Phan tich van de (Problem analysis) 13 2.2 Cach thuc phan tich muc tieu (Procedure for objective analysis) 16 2.2.1 Muc dich va muc tieu (Goals and objectives) 17 2.2.2 Muc tieu uu tien (Targets) 18 2.3 Thu thap thong tin ve muc tieu (Collecting information on objectives) 19 2.4 Phan tich cac muc tieu (Analysing the objectives) 20 2.4.1 Moi quan he giua cac muc tieu (Relationship between objectives) 21 2.4.2 Mau thuan giua cac muc tieu va nhung nhom hudng lgi (Conflicts between objectives and interest groups) 23 2.5 Chon lua cac muc tieu (Selecting final objectives) 24 2.5.1 Su doc lap va cac anh hudng cua muc tieu (Dependencies and effects of objectives) 24 2.5.2 Phan tich dong hoc ve cac muc tieu (Dynamic analysis of objectives) 25 M yC LVC (TABLE OF CONTENTS) 2.5.3 He thong thur bac va muc quan cua cac muc tieu (Hierarchy and weighting of objectives) 26 2.6 Su hoat dong hoa (Operationalization) 28 2.7 Muc tieu iru tien (Targets) 30 THONG TIN VA KIEN THUG (INFORMATION AND KNOWLEDGE) 31 3.1 Kieu thong tin (Type of information) 31 3.2 Tieu chuan thong tin va chat luqng so lieu (Information standards and data quality) 36 3.2.1 Tieu chuan thong tin (Information standards) 36 3.2.2 Chat lucmg so lieu (Data quality) 37 3.3 Nguon thong tin (Sources of information) 39 3.3.1 Kinh nghiem va kien thuc cua ngudi nong dan (Experience and knowledge of the farmers) 40 3.3.2 Kinh nghiem va kien thuc cua nhung ngudi cung cap thong tin chu chot (Experience and knowledge from key persons) 40 3.3.3 Nhung nghien cuu va thi nghiem (Experimentation and research) 41 3.3.4 Cac an pham da cong bo va cac bao cao noi b6 (Publications and internal reports) 42 Cau true thong tin (Structuring information) 42 3.5 Ky thuat thu thap thong tin (Techniques in information gathering) 43 3.5.1 Phong van (Interviewing) 44 3.5.2 Giam sat (Monitoring) 50 3.5.3 Su du doan (Prognosis) 52 PHAN TICH HE THONG VUNG VA DlT AN (REGIONAL AND PROJECT SYSTEMS ANALYSES) 55 4.1 Cach thuc phan tich phat trien (Procedure of the development analysis) 55 4.2 Tiep can he thong va phan tich su phat trien (The system approach and development analysis) 4.2.1 Nhung dac diem cua he thong va cau true (Characteristics 56 M yC LVC (TABLE OF CONTENTS) of systems and structures) 57 4.2.2 Tiep can da nganh (Interdisciplinary approaches) 60 4.2.3 He thong thu bac (System hierarchy) 63 4.2.4 Dong luc hoc (Dynamics) 64 4.3 Phan tich phat trien vimg (Development analysis of a region) 66 4.3.1 Cac dac diem cau true va moi quan he (Structural characteristics and relationships) 66 4.3.2 Nhung diem tarn (Main focus) 68 4.3.3 Cac vi dy ve he thong (Examples of systems) 70 4.3.3.1 Trong trot du canh (Shifting cultivation) 70 4.3.3.2 He thong du cu (Nomadic systems) 71 4.3.3.3 He thong tuoi tieu (Irrigation systems) 73 4.3.4 Nhung van de va cac kha nang lien quan toi phan tich vung (Problems and possibilities associated with a regional analysis) 75 4.4 Phan tich phat trien du an (Development analysis of a project) 75 4.4.1 Nhung diem tarn (Main focus) 76 4.4.2 To chuc va cac nha ho trq du an (The project supporters and organization) 79 4.4.2.1 To chuc (The organization) 81 4.4.2.2 Bieu chuc nang (Functional diagram) 84 4.4.3 Quan ly du an (Project management) 85 4.4.3.1 Nhan vien va quan ly nhan su (Personnel and staff management) 85 4.4.3.2 Trang thiet bi va tinh trang tai chinh (Equipment and the financial situation) 90 4.4.4 Cac bien phap va su danh gia (Procedures and evaluation) 94 4.4.4.1 Hoat dong (Activities) 95 4.4.4.2 Su dat duoc cac muc tieu uu tien (Achievemnts of targets) 4.4.4.3 97 Su dat duqc cac muc dich/ muc tieu (Achievements of goals/ objectives) 98 iv _ M y c L y e (TABLE OF CONTENTS) PHAN TICH PHAT TRIEN NONG TRAI (DEVELOPMENT ANALYSIS OF FARMS) 101 5.1 Nong trai la mot he thong (The farm as a system) 101 5.1.1 Cac moi quan he ben va ben ngoai (External and internal relationships) 101 5.1.2 Cac hoat dong san xuat va tong loi nhuan (Production activities and gross margin) 107 5.2 Phan tich thu nhap (Income analysis) 112 5.3 KM nang toan tien mat va kha nang tai chinh (Liquidity and financial capacity) 122 5.4 Phan tich sinh ke ho gia dinh (Subsistence analysis of the family) 125 THIETKE DU AN (PROJECT DESIGNING) 129 6.1 Cach thuc thiet ke du an (Procedure in designing projects) 129 6.1.1 Lap ke hoach dvr an (Project planning) 130 6.1.2 Quan ly du an (Project management) 131 6.2 Khai niem ky thuat va cai tien (Technical concepts and innovations) 132 6.2.1 Viec lap ke hoach theo dinh hudng ky thuat (Technically oriented planning) 134 6.2.1.1 Vi du ve chan nuoi (An example from animal 6.2.2 production) 134 6.2.1.2 Vi du ve tudi tieu (An example from irrigation) 137 Nhung cai tien va ap dung (Innovations and their introduction) 139 6.2.2.1 Nhung cai tien va hieu qua kinh te (Innovations and their economic effects) 139 6.3 Ho gia dinh va nong tr^i (The farm and fam ily) 145 6.3.1 Ke hoach nong trai (Farm planning) 146 6.3.1.1 Su dung dau vao (Use of inputs) 146 6.3.1.2 To chuc nong trai (Farm organization) 150 6.3.2 Kha nang toan ti6n mat va ke hoach tai chinh (Liquidity and financial planning) 157 6.3.3 Rui ro va khong chac chan (Risk anduncertainty) 159 MVC LyiC (TABLE OF CONTENTS) 6.3.4 6.3.3.1 Dir doan tham so (Prognosis of parameters) 159 6.3.3.2 Han che rui ro (Measures for risk reduction) 161 Tu cung tu cap cho giadinh (Family subsistence) 163 TO CHU’C VA QUAN LY DlT AN (PROJECT ORGANISATION AND MANAGEMENT) 165 7.1 Ke hoach to chuc du an (Planning the project organisation) 165 7.1.1 Nguyen tic lap ke hoach (The principle of planning) 166 7.1.2 Pham vi cac quyet dinh (Scope of decisions) 168 7.2 To chuc thuc hien (Implementing the organisation) 170 7.2.1 Cach thuc lap ke hoach (Planning procedure) 170 7.2.2 Lap ke hoach tai chinh (Financial planning) 179 7.3 Quan ly va giam sat du an (Management and monitoring) 179 7.3.1 Khai niem ve giam sat du an (Concept of monitoring) 180 7.3.2 Theo doi cac thi nghiem tren dong ruong cua ngudi nong dan (Monitoring in on-farm experiments) 183 7.3.3 Giam sat du an (Project monitoring) 186 PHAN TICH CHI PHI- LOIICH (COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS) 191 8.1 Cach thuc phan tich chi phi - loi ich (Procedure of cost- benefit analysis) 191 8.2 Dong chi phi - loi ich (Cost- benefit flow) 192 8.2.1 Anh hucmg true tiep cua du an (Direct effects of the project) 193 8.2.2 Anh hucmg gian tiep cua du an (Indirect effects of the project) 197 8.3 Khai niem danh gia (Evaluation concepts) 201 8.3.1 Gia thi trudng va gia co hoi (Market prices and opportunity costs) 201 8.3 Gia thi trudmg nude va quoc te (Domestic and world market prices) 204 8.4 Tieu chuan loi nhuan (Profitabilitycriteria) 209 8.4.1 Tieu chuan (Criteria) 209 8.4.2 Cac van de ap dung (Problemsof application) 214 8.5 Phan tich hieu qua chi phi (Cost effectiveness analysis) 216 yi M y c L y e (TABLE OF CONTENTS) _ 8.6 Banh gia xa hoi (Social evaluation) 218 8.6.1 Bam bao nhu cau ton tai cua gia dinh (Ensuring the existence requirements of families) 219 8.6.2 Chi thi xa hoi va can doi nhom (Social indicators and group balances) 220 8.6.3 Phan tich during di cua san pham (Product path analysis) 220 BANH GlA CHUNG B lf An (OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF PROJECTS) 225 9.1 Khai niem lien nganh (Interdisciplinary concept) 225 9.1.1 Su ket hop cac phuong phap (Combination of the methods) 225 9.1.2 Banh gia va lua chon cac kha nang cua dir an (Evaluation and selection of project alternatives) 227 9.2 Cau true nghien cuu (Structure of the studies) 230 9.2.1 Nghien cuu ke hoach (Planning studies) 231 9.2.2 Banh gia (Evaluation) 231 LITERATURES 235 PHAN TtCH CHI PHl- LQI lCH (COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS) 221 nhom hucmg lgi la su khac gitta ngan quy huu ti cua nhom va su tieu thu thuc te cua no Danh gia nhu cau Nhu cau phai dugc hieu la tong nhu cau cua mot ngucri, mot gia dinh hay mot nhom ngucri Nhu cau la phan lai den thoi diem hien tai van chua dugc dap ling Nhu cau bang nhung thu c&i thiSt trir di su tieu thu (Nhu cau = nhung thu can thiet - tieu dung) Buoc dau tien phan tich ducmg di cua san pham la su danh gia nhu cau cua nhom hucmg loi Chung dugc dinh nghTa theo muc chdt lugng, so lugng cua su tieu thu dac biet Nhung nhu c3u dugc van hanh bang “ngan quy huu ty” Ngan quy hiiu ty dugc su dung de cong gop nhom san phSm ma chung thoa man nhu cau cua nguoi Do no phai tuan theo dilu kien ca ban: - No phai dap ling nhung tieu chuan dinh du&ng nhu gia tri toi thieu, t6i da cho nang lugng, protein, vitamin, chat khoang Chung dugc tinh toan khac theo nhung hoat dong lao dong than the khac nhau; - Thoi quen an uong cung phai dugc tinh den Nhung dieu tra ve su tieu thu co the cho thay muc tieu thu thap nhat, cao nhat voi timg loai lucmg thuc khac Theo hucmg nay, cac scr thich dac biet cua khu vuc, bo lac va nhom ngucri cung phai dugc tinh d6n, vi du nhu su tieu thu gao chau A Chung loai hang hoa cua nguoi tieu dung phai dugc thu thap theo timg nhom hucmg loi Lugng nhu cau cua moi mat hang phai dugc liet ke theo dcm vi so lugng mot giai doan nhat dinh Danh sach cac san pham tieu dung sau trien khai du an phat trien co the the hien su thoa man nhu cau va muc tieu dat dugc Nguyen tic cua ngan quy hiiu ty la nhung san pham can thiit phai dugc cung cap voi chi phi thap nhat Can thiet phai can nhac den kha nang san xuat gioi han, kha nang ban cac san pham va thu nhap toi thieu cua nhom hucmg loi Nhu cau cua moi nhom hucmg lgi dugc so sanh voi su tieu dung thuc te cua ho Dieu co the co dugc qua cac cuoc dieu tra ve su tieu thu Nhung thii can thiet ma khong dugc dap ling bcri tieu thu thuc tai dugc hieu la nhu cau Phan biet nguyen nhan cua nhu cau la mot van de rat quan trong truong hgp thieu lucmg thuc Trong thuc te phan biet su tieu thu khac giura cac nhom hucmg lgi va nhin nhan v§n d6 thiSu dinh duong cua nhung ngucri ngheo khong chi la van de ve san xuat ma no la van de ve phan phoi Khi biet dugc nhu cau thi co 222 PHAN TtCH CHI PHt- L p l tCH (COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS) the se danh gia dupe cac su lua chon du an khac nhau, vi du nhu muc tieu “dap ung nhu cau” cho moi nhom huong loi can phai nhu the nao Danh gia cac lua chon du an Cac lua chon du an dua dupe danh gia theo muc lam thoa man nhu cau cua moi nhom hucmg loi vdi chi phi thap nhat Vdi moi lua chon du an khac nhau, dau cua san pham di tvr du an den ngudi tieu thu Do ngudi phan tich phai xac dinh dupe lieu nhom huong loi tu san pham cua ngudi tieu thu cuoi cung co can chung hay khong Muc nhu cau cua nhom hucmg loi dupe dap ung bdi du an la muc cong cua muc tieu du an Ve co ban, mot san pham dupe san xuat ton tai nhu cau ve no Dua chinh xac cac bang chung cho nhu cdu ve nhung san pham - nhung thu dupe san xuat cho ngudi tieu thu cuoi ciing thi phuc tap hon nhieu Vi du trucmg hop du an tudi tieu nhu da de cap den d Muc 4.4.1 cung nhu phan tich Muc 4.3.2, su phan bo cua cac nhom huong loi khac san xuat san pham tieu thu cuoi cung phai dupe phan tich Vdi moi mot khai niem du an, nude tudi tieu dupe phan phoi cho san xuat ngo, ke, dau, gia cam va spi dua vao he so nhu cau cua chung va he thong canh tac Su phan bo nude tudi tieu phai dupe phan phoi tdi tung nhom hucmg loi, sau la su phan phoi cua cac san pham khac nhung nhom Vi du nhu du an tudi tieu, viec su dung nude tudi tieu de phuc vu san xuat nhu ke, ngo va chan nuoi cua nhom huong loi va Trong du an neu phan bo 20% nude tudi tieu cua du an cho cay ke va 60% cay ke dupe su dung bdi nhom huong loi 1, dieu chi rang nhom su dung 12% nude tudi tieu theo dudng san xuat ke 2% nude thuy loi dupe nhom su dung de nuoi gia cam theo dudng san xuat ngo 18% dupe sir diing bdi nhom v.v (day chi la vi du de minh hoa) Nhu cau thuc te cua moi nhom dich ma dupe thoa man bdi du an dupe lay tvr su triet khau nhu cau tieu thu thuc te khong co du an Su phan bo cua he thong tudi tieu ma thoa man cac nhu cau la dupe xac dinh Mot so can nhac them phai tinh den su dung phan tich dudng di cua san pham de lap ke hoach va danh gia du an phat trien: • Ngan quy huu ti phai dupe md rang de dap ung nhu cau co ban cua ngudi, ma san lupng san xuat vupt qua muc du an Su phat trien mot each nang dong ve nhu cau cua ngudi phai dupe cho phep mac du no rat kho dinh lupng PHAN TtCH CHI PHl- LQI tCH (COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS) 223 • Phan tich chi tiet ve dudng san pham ton nhieu thdi gian cac du an co nhieu loai san pham va dich vu Dac biet neu no la cac san pham da chuc nang (sur dung vdi nhieu muc dich) Dac biet cac dir an phat trien nong thon ket hop Phan tich nhu cau va tieu thu phuc tap horn vdi nhung nhom hudng loi khac va vdi nhung vung heo lanh, noi ma thucmg tap trung nhirng cong dong ngheo nhat Thai gian can thiet cho viec thu thap so lieu cung phai duac len lich cu the • Cac lira chon du an cung duac sap xep theo muc ma chung lam giam nhu cau cua nhom huomg loi voi chi phi nho nhat Chi phi kinh te de thoa man cac nhu cau la rat cao, no co nghia la nhu cau cua nhom hudng loi (nguai ngheo) chi co the duac dap ung bang sir chi phi cua nhom nguai khac San xuat san pham ma co gang de bu lai su phan bo lech thu nhap kinh te thucmg can rat nhieu ky nang viec dam phan vdi cac ca quan nha nude Doi tuang chinh tri co the la mot van de nghiem neu nhu cac chinh sach nha nude tap trung vao san xuat nhung san pham khac hom la nhung san pham da duac xac dinh cho nhu cau hien tai, chang han nhu san pham xuat khau Phan tich dudng di cua san pham khong the giai quyet van de ky thuat, thu nhap cua nong trai rieng le, to chuc hay quan ly van de, no co the xac dinh loi nhuan kinh te, tai chinh cua du an hay khong? Gia sir la nhung van de co the duac giai quyet Phan tich ducmg di cua san pham nen la mot phan cua su dau tu vdi su phu hop kinh te xa hoi cua cac du an khac va nen duac ap dung qua trinh tuang tac lan 225 DANH GIA CHUNG DlT AN (OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF PROJECTS) 9.1 Khai niem lien nganh (Interdisciplinary concept) Nhan thuc co he thong va chinh luan ve mot du an phat then phuc tap can mot su tiep can mang tinh lien nganh Phuong phap lap ke hoach va tiep can hien co bi han che ve pham vi va phuong hudng theo nhung nganh kien thuc khac Su ket hop mot so phuong phap va lmh vuc khac se giup vugt qua xu hudng don le Be dcit dugc dieu do, can chu y tap trung vao cac van de phat trien khac nhau, muc tieu, cac giai phap co the va su danh gia dua theo ket qua dat dugc Phuong phap bi phu thuoc vao cac giai phap cua van de va dugc ap dung nhu la yeu cau kieu tinh huong dac biet 9.1.1 Su k£t hup cac phuung phap (Combination of the methods) Khai niem phuong phap luan Muc 1.2 bam theo y tudng chu dao Tu Phan den Phan dieu dugc thao luan chi tiet hon Phan tich muc tieu (chucmg 2) phai bao gom tat ca cac muc tieu va cac nhom muc dich Ket qua phan tich dugc phoi hgp bdi tat ca cac vien du an nham dam bao chic chan la khai niem du an da de cap den tat ca cac nhom hudng lgi lien quan, to chuc chiu trach nhiem quyet dinh va cac vien du an thinh thoang ngucri lap ke hoach se tim thay chinh minh d nhung vi tri kho khan vdi nhung mau thuan trai ngugc va nhang mot so khia canh cua nhung muc tieu quan hong lam tang dong gop thuc te cua nghien cuu qua trinh thiet lap quyet dinh Hon nua, dieu kien tien quyet lien quan den thiet ke du an la kien thuc uyen bac va su phan tich phat trien qua khu Dua tren su phan tich nhung giai phap thay the kha thi va cac phuong phap tuong ung ma no co the dam bao viec dat dugc cac muc tieu dat la cao nhat can phai dugc danh gia No cung rat can su hgp tac phan tich sir phat trien qua khu, cac tinh huong hien tai vdi cac phuong phap tap hgp thong tin Can phai co gang hieu dugc moi quan he giua muc tieu va su phat trien Chiing thudng bao gom nhung nhan thuc he thong, sir phat hien cac moi lien quan vung du an phat trien toan bo he thong hoac du an phat trien Bau tu phan tich phat trien nham de thay dugc cac van de dac biet hay cac van de phuc tap phat trien nhu the nao cung nhu phan tich cac nguyen nhan cua no ( Hop 9.1 va Hop 9.2) 226 DANH GIA CHUNG D(i AN (OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF PROJECTS) Hop 9.1: Chi tieu va mire danh gia va tham dinh dir an Thiet ke va phat trien dir an lua chon theo cac muc: - Muc vi mo (Thudng la nhom uu tien chinh) - Muc dy an (Thucrng lien quan nhieu den hieu qua quan ly va to chuc) - Muc vi mo (Tu tarn nhin a cap quoc gia va xa hoi) H6p 2: Cac chi tieu danh gia tai cac cap dp khac Cac chi tieu danh gia & m u c nhom iru tien (vi mo) - Cai thien nen kinh te on dinh vi du nhu thu nhap trang trai, thu nhap gia dinh, dam bao kha nang tien mat, kha nang cung cap von cao nhat, dam bao su an toan cua tai san - Cai thien diSu kien xa hoi vi dy nhu cai thien nguon cung cap cho nhu cau gia dinh (Nhu luong thuc, nude uong, dich vu y te) cai thien su phan phoi thu nhap veri su quan tam dac biet den nhttng doi tuong ngheo - Giam toi da cac loai rui ro, dac biet nhung rui ro lien quan den cuoc song gia dinh - Giam thieu su phu thuoc vao ngudi khac, to chuc khac ve dat, nude, vat nuoi chu sd h&u vdn Chi tieu danh gia o’mire dy dy an (muc o' giira, trung gian) - Hieu qua chi phi, vi du dat duoc muc tieu ky thuat vdi doi hoi ve nguon luc it nhat, loi nhuan cao nhdt d cap nhom uu tien de dat chi phi thap nhat d muc du an - Dam bao muc tai chinh co ban, quy bao hiem tai chinh, toan cho cac dich vu, hang hoa de co the sinh Icri (vi du xac dinh gia cua giong cao san mdi) Chi tieu danh gia & muc qude gia (mire vi mo) - Anh hudng den phat trien vi mo, vi du nhu dong gop vao tang trudng kinh te quoc gia, tang ngoai te, su dung hieu qua nguon lire quoc gia, cai thien hieu qua nang luc hrnih chinh - Anh hudng den phat trien xa hoi, anh hudng den phan bd thu nhap - Anh hudng den su phu thuoc vao chinh sach quoc gia DANH GIA CHUNG D V AN (OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF PROJECTS) 227 Khai niem phuong phap luan dua tren triet ly sau: Danh gia su phat trien qua khur, phat hien nguyen nhan va nhung tro ngai co the din t&i cac van de phat trien, giup cho viec chong da, loai bo cac trd ngai va tir co the cai tien tiem nang phat trien cua xa hoi hay cua khu vuc Su tur no luc co glng la dupe ung ho, no la dieu ca ban cua ban chat va su phat trien No cung giup cho viec de phong su troi buoc cua cac khai niem phat trien khong tuorng xung hay khong thich hap Ket qua, khai niem du an phat trien ma khong co su phat trien va phan tich muc tieu thi bi loai bo Cac phuong phap sin co cho viec hien thuc hoa cac ke hoach thucmg chi ap dung de giai quyet cac van de cu the va dac biet cac trucmg hop cua mot du an phat trien phurc tap Tuy nhien, de viec ap dung hieu qua cac phuong phap nay, dieu rat quan la phai thay duac cac tieu phan a mot he thong tong hop cua du an va moi quan he tuang tac lan giua cac phuong phap cung nhu cac quy tac khac qua trinh lap ke hoach du an Do do, lap ke hoach cho cac chuong trinh co the duac dung nhu la mot phuong phap tung phan cua to chuc nong trai toi uu, phan tich chi phi -loi tuc co the duac dung de danh gia su dong gop kinh te cua no De khai niem hoa va danh gia tinh phu hop ve tai chinh va kinh te cua mot du an phat trien, ca hai phuong phap deu co the ap dung cung mot luc Cac phuong phap tung phan co the dupe dieu chinh mot khai niem cua cac du an phat trien lien nganh hoac dinh hudmg he thdng bang each ket hop cac van de khai niem va phuong phap 9.1.2 Danh gia va lua chpn cac kha nSng cua du an (Evaluation and selection of project alternatives) Mot ma tran cac ket qua lap ke hoach dupe xay dung theo nhu mot loat cau true muc tieu va van de Dieu phai dan toi mot danh gia dinh nghia dua tren su xep hang hay tren he thong thu bac cua cac kha nang cua du an, cac kha nang dupe xuat phat tir lpi ich tong the cua moi du an phat trien Lpi ich tong the cua mot du an dupe danh gia bang cac cong cu phan tich lpi ich va dua tren cac ket qua mang tinh toan cau Tap trung vao phan tich lpi ich la vice phan tich cac muc tieu, muc cac lua chpn du an khac co the dat dupe cac muc tieu nay, cung nhu cac muc tieu cu the va lpi ich tong the co the dat dupe Phan tich lpi ich co gang xem xet mot each that sp rang cac nhom huong lpi va cac to chuc quyet djnh se nhan thuc dupe cac muc tieu ro rang nhu la mot phan quan dac biet Do do, moi mot muc tieu phai dupe hoach dinh mot each ro rang va phai dupe can nhac m6t each than Moi mot gia tri huu dung chi co the dupe xem xet va xac dinh pham 228 PANH GIA CHUNG D p AN (OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF PROJECTS) vi cua moi he thong gia tri ma a co chua cac muc tieu va so thich dupe cac nhom muc dich va cac to chric quyet dinh sap xep Do do, y nghla quan he ma cac nhom muc dich va cac to chuc quyet dinh theo cac muc tieu va muc khac dat duoc d cac lua chon du an khac (theo co cau thich hop), duoc ket hop chat che gia tri Iqi ich bdi cac cong cu dac biet Gia tri lpi ich sau duoc stjt dving nhu la mot tieu tri danh gia quyet dinh Thuc te thiet lap mot loat cac uu tien la don gian va khong bo buoc nhu nhung gi da dien qua trinh tao lap quyet dinh Khai mem ve cac tieu tri dac biet cua nhung ngudi quyet dinh va cac nhom hudng loi la su thay the cho viec chuyen quyen va phan nao giup xep hang cac uu tien mot each ngau nhien Ro rang xac dinh cac yeu to phu la yeu cau toi thieu cho mot nguyen ly nhu the Nen chu y rang, su sai sot su cau tha cua moi anh hudng rieng le, thong thudng dan tori anh hudng tuong duong den tat ca cac muc tieu, va thuc te dong thdi la mot dang cua su anh h udng, do yeu cau can phai dieu chinh Gia tri loi ich co the duoc danh gia theo timg bude mot Be xac dinh he thong cac muc tieu va danh gia cac kha nang thich hop cua du an mot each ky thuat, kinh te va mang tinh xa hoi thi phan rich cac muc tieu cua nhung du an lua chon la diem b3t ddu va co the duoc thuc hien nhu da thao luan d chuong va chuong Tu do, muc dat duoc cac uu tien co the duoc tim hieu mot each chac chan O Bang 9.1 didu dupe chi bang each dung mot vi du vdi chi tieu va kha nang lua chon khac cua du an Bude co ban tiep theo la de gidi thieu mot loat cac uu tien bang cac cong cu muc quan cua cac muc tieu khac (muc quan cua cac tieu chi) Trong vi du d Bang 9.1, muc tieu “nang cao su cung cap cho gia dinh” da dupe dua gap den lan muc quan cua muc tieu khac Su nhan len cua muc muc tieu dat dupe ring voi ket qua cua viec dat dupe muc tieu Gia tri loi ich cua su chon lua du an la can bang voi tong so cac phep da dupe dinh lupng cua viec dat dupe muc tieu Trong vi du d Bang 9.1, tong cong mric sri dung la 136 cho kha nang du an II va la 120 cho kha nang du an I Cac muc tieu khac dupe xep hang theo nhu kich cd cua gia tri lpi ich cua chung Su ket hop cac gia tri dua gia tri lpi ich cua cac lua chon du an V4n de phuorng phap luan nim d viec xac dinh mot gia tri lpi ich dem le, gia tri ket hop tat ca cac muc tieu lien quan va moi tuorng quan muc dich theo thdi gian Bang each gidi thieu mot tieu chi danh gia chuSn da chieu, d cac thdi diem khong hoat dong (vi du khong the dinh lupng), cac van de danh gia dupe chia van de: - Van de cua sp bien doi nhat (cong cu dinh hudng nhat) cho lpi ich Nhu mot quy luat, danh gia tam quan cua mot muc tieu cu the cho cac nhom DANH GIA CHUNG D V AN (OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF PROJECTS) 229 di'ch va cac to chuc quyet djnh khac cac du an, cung nhur su phu thuoc lan giua cac tieu tri uu tien cua cac muc tieu khac la mot nhiem vu kho khan Trong nhilu tnrdng hop, su dat dupe cua mot muc tieu se chi dong gop cho gia tri lpi ich ket hop vdi qua cua cac muc tieu khac - V§n d6 k it hop co chung muc cua cac gia tri Ap dung cua chuc nang thiet thuc ma xep hang mot chieu dupe lien ket vdi cac xep hang da chieu ve leri ich tong the cua cac lua chon du an khac nhau, dan tdi tang van de lam de lien ket chung (phep cong, phep nhan) Hon the nua, no vo cung kho khan de xac dinh va cong gop cac thay doi mot loat cac uu tien cac hoat dong lua chon t&ng len Thuan loi cua phan tich lqi ich la viec hinh qua trinh lua chon theo true giac va qua trinh thiet lap quyet dinh cung nhu viec xac dinh ro rang cac tieu chi quan trong, dieu thay the su chuyen quyen, bat ngb va thuong dinh nghia map mo ve mot loat cac uu tien va cac truong hop quyet dinh Cac diem bSt dau phan tich lqi ich la cac hieu qua cua cac lua chon khac theo cac muc tieu cua chung Cac thong so dupe danh gia bang each ap dung cac phuong phap da dupe mo ta cac phan khac cua chuong Cac mong dpi dupe gop vao de xac dinh muc dat dupe cua cac muc tieu (xem a Muc 2.4.2) Vdi su giup d5 nay, nhieu phuong phap thay the khac dupe ude lupng theo cac tieu chi cu the Trong vi du d Bang 9.1, dieu da dupe thvrc hien bang each sir dung cac xep hang tir tdi Cach tao mpt ma tran toan hoc cua cac muc tieu, ma tran co the bao gom ca dinh lupng cung nhu mo ta bang chfl cua cac muc tieu Tiep theo, tarn quan cua cac muc tieu rieng biet dupe gidi thieu Chung dupe xac dinh qua trinh phan tich muc tieu va anh hudng mot each chu quan va/hodc co tinh chinh tri Trong Bang 9.1, viec them vao cac thu bac quan cua cac lira chon du an khac la ket cua cac gia tri huu dung va mot xep hang cac giai phap thay the Trong vi du cua chung toi, giai phap lua chon II xuat hien d vi tri so vdi gia tri huu dung cao nhat Tuy nhien, muc cac muc tieu dat dupe chi rang kha nang cong cua du an la khong cao hem nhilu so vdi giai phap lua chon I Do quyet dinh ung ho cho giai phap lua chon II phai dam bao sp ton nghiem ngat vdi cac dieu kien cu the vi du nhu pham vi hoac lrnh vuc hanh chinh va quan ly 230 0ANH GIA CHUNG D p AN (OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF PROJECTS) Bang 9.1: Xac ctjnh gia tri sir d(ing cua de cwmg du an Muc Muc su dung Lua Lua Lua chon quan chon chon % Thang (1) diem Muc tieu dat dupe (1) Lua chon Chi tieu % Thang diem Thu nhap cua nong trai 80 100 20 30 Cung cap gia dinh 100 100 6 36 36 Phan bo thu nhap 90 60 2 10 Thue nhan cong 75 80 6 Gia tri hien tai rong 100 100 24 24 On dinh moi trubng 90 100 6 24 36 28 - 120 136 Tong so 27 Xep hang (1) Thang diem va mure quan tir den 9.2 Cau true nghien cu’u (Structure of the studies) Cac ket qua cua qua trinh lap ke hoach va tham dinh du an phai dupe the hien va dupe soan thao cong phu a cac nghien cuu, tham dinh va bao cao cua nong trai Doi can thiet phai phan biet ro rang lieu mot nghien cuu can b muc thuc hien du an hay la no duoc su dung de giup cho viec lap cac quyet dinh a cap Bo truemg hop dSu tien, tat ca cac bien phap lien quan tbi thuc hien du an la dupe dua O trubng hop thur hai, ben canh tinh phu hop cua du an, cac cau hoi quan tam tbi thai trach nhiem cua cac to chuc ve giai quyet cac van de tai chinh va cac van de lien quan den luat phap la cac quan tam chinh Bieu dupe the hien noi dung cua tung nghien cuu hoac bao cao cu the Do do, mot so bang phan noi dung co the dupe su dung nhu cac hubng dan cho cac loai nghien cuu khac Ro rang la mbi du an se can phai dupe xem xet mot each cu the DANH GIA CHUNG DU AN (OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF PROJECTS) 231 9.2.1 Nghien ciru kd hoach (Planning studies) Lap ke hoach cho cac dp an phat trien dupe coi nhu la ca so phuc vu cho viec xay dpng cac quyet dinh de thitc hien hoa cac khai niem cua du an nhu ban hudng dSn thuc hien Trong boi canh lap cac ke hopch nghien ciru, cac khai niem cua du an duoc thiet lap dua tren cac co so phan tich ve su phat trien qua khu Cac ket qua cua lap ke hoach co the dugc tong ket mot bao cao danh gia du an, bao cao gioi thieu cho cac to chuc hanh chinh va chinh tri de xay dung cac quyet dinh Bao cao nen tong ket cac ket qua phan tich mot each ngan gon, thao luan ve cac van de phat trien, miic tieu va cac nhom muc dich, cung nhu mo ta ngan gon de cuong du an Danh gia tong the ve trach nhiem to chuc thuc hien du an la dac trung cua cac bao cao Trong trudng hop hop tac hay nhan vien tro ky thuat thi phai co bao cao ket thuc vdi su mo ta ve cac dong gop khac cua cac nude phat triin va nude ho trg (hoac cac to chuc tai trg); trudng hop giup da (hay vien trg) ve tai chinh, bao cao ket thuc vdi su mo ta ve cac dieu kien tai chinh xuat phat tir cac du thao de xuat Cung vdi viec danh gia day du cac van de da de cap ban dieu tra du an, van ban hoan chinh cua mot nghien ciru lap ke hoach (ngugc lai vdi nghien cuu ke hoach da dugc de cap d tren) dugc dac trung bdi cac phan tich chi tiet, ti mi ve phat trien va cac tieu chuan lien quan tdi viec thuc hien trien khai du an 9.2.2 Danh gia (Evaluation) Danh gia tong quat mot khai niem dugc dua tren cac tieu tri va cac dieu kien ngoai canh No duoc thuc hien bang each so sanh hien trang cua dp an vdi ke hoach du an Danh gia dan gian khong phai la thude cac tieu chi su dung, muc dg danh gia la su ude lugng, tinh toan, ddm ma ngudi phan tich dua cho moi tieu chi Qua trinh danh gia dugc xac dinh ro rang du an co the dugc danh gia mot each doc lap hoac la theo y muon cua nha phan tich Trong danh gia cac dd xuit du an, cin xem xet mot each ro rang cac chi phi can thidt, cac v4n dd vd kha nang thich ling hanh chinh, kha nang tidp tuc va phat trien hon nua sau dp an kdt thuc Xdp hang ddu tien cua tieu tri danh gia qua cac dieu kien la bang chung tir thuc te Trong vi du Bang 9.1, mot cac mpe tieu quan nMt ma khai niem du an cd gdng dpt dugc la nang cao su an toan c4n thidt cho cac nong trai Nhom muc tieu cua “cac ho nong dan” da dugc tidp can mot each trpe tidp va rat ro rang 232 ©ANH GIA CHUNG D l/A N (OVERALI, ASSESSMENT OF PROJECTS) Trong phan tich kinh te cung can tinh toan chi tiet ve cac chi tieu kinh te nhu ty suat loi ich-chi phi, gia tri hien tai rong, noi suat sinh loi v v Cac gia tri dugc tinh toan tir cac chi phi ca hoi dua tren co sd gia ca noi dia hoac gia ca thi tnicmg thl gidi thuoc vao tung trudng hop cy the Nhung so se chi muc va pham vi cho phep ve cac van de kinli te (Bang 8.1) Khi xem xet tac dong den moi trirdng, xa hoi viec thuc hien du an thi phai so sanh vdi tinh trang hien tai Tat ca cac xem xet dua nhung danh gia tich cue ve khai niem du an Trong chi cac kho khan phai duomg dau, no se de xuat y kien cho viec thuc hien (Bang 9.2 va Bang 9.3) Bang 9.2: Mire dat dutfcmuc tieu ciia lira chon du- an Chi tieu Mure dd dat dugc muc tieu cua lua chon dyr an Tinh 10 nam sau co du an trang Khong cd Co du an trade du an co dy an Myc tieu mong dgi 1.000 1.000 80 Cung cap cho cuoc sdng 90 100 110 110 Phan bd thu nhap (He sd Gini) 0,8 0,8 0,55 0,6 Lao dong them (ngudi/nam) Noi suat sinh lgi (%) - 4000 5330 - - 15 15 Gia tri hien tai rong (10%), $ Ti suat lgi ich- chi phi - - - - Thu nhap nong trai ($/nam) Muc tieu dat dugc (%) Chi tieu ve moi trudng Co de 1.900 170.000 1,7 van Xoi mon Xoi mon it tdng phan 2.375 170.000 1,7 Khong anh hudng Cac ket qua phan tich muc tieu, lap ke hoach va cac nhan dinh quan trong, cung nhu cac nguon luc cho viec tham tra su thuc hien du an (muc dat dugc cac muc tieu va cac thong sd cua cac ket qua) nen dugc tong ket va trinh bay mot bang tong hop ve tong quat chung Bang 9.3) BANH GIA CHUNG P V AN (OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF PROJECTS) 233 Bang 9.3: Trinh bay tom t i t ket qua danh gia dir an (Khung Logic) Mo ta so luge Muc tieu Cac chi tieu Phuang tien tham Gia thiet tra dich, muc - Tang miic sdng -Bo phan khuyen gia dinh nong giam sat du an - Miic vi mo - Tang noi suat sinh lgi len 15% - Danh gia tiep - Muc vi mo theo Ddi tugng - Miic trung gian (du an) Dau - Vi mo, trung gian, vi mo Dau vao - Vi mo, trung gian, vi mo - 15 nhan vien - Du lieu quan ly khuyen nong du an dugc dao tao - Du lieu bo phan - Hoi thao dau bd khuyen nong tai 10 nong dan quan - Ti le chap nhan ky thuat moi la 10%/nam - Ngan quy cua bo la kha thi cho du an - To chiic cac lap tap huan - Khuyen nong vien co ky nang tot -Tang thu nhap - Giam sat miic - Gia ca va chi gia dinh vi mo phi lien quan la chap nhan dugc - Nhan vien du an - Bao cao quan ly dugc thuc day du an - Co giao vien dao tao tap huan - Gop phan tang - Phan tich kinh te tot trucmg nen kinh te vi mo tir nhiem vu danh gia du an Khong anh hudng tieu cu den moi trudng - Cung cap nhung - Giam sat cac - Cac ky thuat cait tien phu hgp phan cua du an mdi la kha thi va hieu qua - Quan ly du an - Hoi dong danh hicu qua gia cap b6 - Nang lire quan ly cao - Giam sat va - Danh gia md danh gia du an rang hieu qua TAI L lfU (LITERATURES) 235 TAI LIEU (LITERATURES) D A S G U P T A , P , A S E N a n d S M A R G L IN (1 ): G u id e lin e s f o r P ro je c t E v a lu a tio n U N I D O P ro je c t F o rm u la tio n a n d E v a lu a tio n S e rie s, N o U n ite d N a tio n s N e w Y o rk T h is b o o k d e a ls w ith a c o n c e p t o f m a c r o -p r ic in g k n o w n a s th e U N ID O -m e th o d d e fin itio n o f m a c ro e c o n o m ic p ric e s is b a s e d o n th e o p p o rtu n ity c o s ts o f d o m e s tic p ric e s B I N H N G O C L A N (2 0 ): F o re s t L a n d A llo c a tio n t o H o u s e h o ld s in N o r th e rn V ie tn a m : P ro c e s s e s , P e r c e p tio n s o f th e L o c a l P e o p le a n d th e U s e o f F o re s tla n d V e rla g G u e r S tu ttg a rt, G e rm a n y D O A N H T A I (2 0 ): F a m ily R e s o u r c e s a n d T h e ir I m p a c t o n L iv in g S ta n d a rd a n d F o o d P u b lis h e d in W D O P P L E R a n d S B A U E R (E d s ): F a r m in g a n d R u l S y s te m s E c o n o m ic s , V o l 54 M a r g r a f V e rla g , W e ik e rs h e im D O P P L E R , K a n d C h L A U T E R B U R G (1 9 ): C h a n g e m a n a g e m e n t E ig h t e d itio n D O P P L E R , W (1 ): F a rm M a n a g e m e n t in K e n y a D e p a r tm e n t P a p e r U N /D A E /l /7 N a iro b i D O P P L E R , W (1 ): P la n u n g u n d M a n a g e m e n t v o n E n tw ic k lu n g s p r o je k te n K ie l D O P P L E R , W e t al (1 9 ): P la n n in g a n d A p p r a is in g A g ric u ltu l P ro g r a m m e s a n d P ro je c ts E c o n o m ic , S o c ia l a n d E n v ir o n m e n ta l A p p is a l In : U P T O N , M e t a l (e d s ): A g ric u ltu l E c o n o m ic s a n d R u l D e v e lo p m e n t E C , N A T U R A /N E C T A R M o n e llie r D O P P L E R , W e t al (2 0 ) R e s o u r c e s a n d liv e lih o o d in m o u n ta in a r e a s o f S o u th E a s t A sia F a r m in g a n d ru l s y s te m in a c h a n g in g e n v iro n m e n t M a r g r a f P u b lis h e rs 4 F O O D A N D A G R IC U L T U R E O R G A N IZ A T IO N (1 7 ): G u id e lin e s f o r th e P re p a tio n o f A g r ic u ltu l I n v e s tm e n t P ro je c ts I n v e s tm e n t C e n tre R o m e G IT T IN G E R , P J (1 ): E c o n o m ic A n a ly s is o f A g ric u ltu l P ro je c ts S e c o n d e d itio n E D I S e rie s in E c o n o m ic D e v e lo p m e n t B a ltim o r e a n d L o n d o n T h is is c o n s id e re d a s o n e o f th e m o s t r e le v a n t b o o k s in th is f ie ld T h e to p ic s o f d a y in w e e k a r e n ic e ly c o v e r e d in th is book G T Z (T O C H U 'C H O P T A C K Y T H U A T D U G ) (2 0 ): B o ta i lie u v e p h u o m g p h a p k h u y d n n o n g c o s u th a m g ia c u a nguori d a n (P A E M ) V ie t N a m H O A N G M A N H Q U A N (2 0 ): G ia o tr in h la p v a q u a n ly d u a n p h a t tr ie n n o n g th o n N X B N o n g n g h ie p H a n o i, V ie t N a m J O N E S , H (1 ): P r o je c t a p p is a l a n d e v a lu a tio n : a re v ie w o f c u r re n t p r a c tic e In: R e a d in g R u l D e v e lo p m e n t C e n tr e B u lle tin , M a rc h , p p -1 S im p le d e s c rip tio n o f th e b a s ic s o f c o s t b e n e f it a n a ly s is K IR K P A T R I C K , C (1 9 ): N e w d e v e lo p m e n ts in p r o je c t a p p is a l in d e v e lo p in g c o u n trie s In: J o u rn a l o f In te rn a tio n a l D e v e lo p m e n t, ( l ) l - K I T C H A IC H A R O E N , J (2 0 ): S o c io -E c o n o m ic A s s e s s m e n t o f th e F a r m R e s o u r c e s a n d L iv in g S ta n d a rd s o f D if fe r e n t E th n ic G r o u p s - A C a s e f ro m N o r th e rn T h a ila n d P u b lis h e d in: W D O P P L E R a n d S B A U E R (E d s ): F a r m in g a n d R u l S y s te m s E c o n o m ic s , V o l 47 M a r g r a f V e rla g , W e ik e rs h e im L A Y A R D , R a n d G L A IS T E R , S (1 9 ): C o s t B e n e fit A n a ly s is (S e c o n d E d itio n ) C a m b r id g e U n iv e r s ity P re ss A b o o k o f r e a d in g s c o v e r in g all th e m a in th e o re tic a l is s u e s to b e c o n s id e re d in th is m o d u le I t in c lu d e s a c ritic a l v ie w o f L ittle a n d M ir le e s o n th e ir b o o k in 1976 >6 TAI L if t (LITERATURES) L E N T E S , P ( 0 ): T h e C o n tr ib u tio n o f G IS a n d R e m o te S e n s in g to F a n n in g S y s te m s R e s e a r c h o n M ic ro - a n d R e g io n a l S c a le in N o r th W e s t V ie tn a m P u b lis h e d in : W D O P P L E R a n d S B A U E R (e d s ): F a r m in g a n d R u l S y s te m s E c o n o m ic s , V o l 52 M a r g r a f V e rla g , W e ik e r s h e im L IT T L E , I.M D a n d J.A M I R R L E E S ( ): P ro je c t A p p is a l a n d P la n n in g f o r D e v e lo p in g C o u n trie s L o n d o n T h is b o o k d e a ls w ith a c o n c e p t o f m a c r o -p r ic in g k n o w n a s th e L IT T L E a n d M IR L E E S - m e th o d D e fin itio n o f m a c r o -e c o n o m ic p r ic e s is b a s e d o n th e o p p o rtu n ity c o s ts o f w o r ld m a r k e t p ric e s I t s h o u ld b e c o m p a re d to th e U N I D O - m e th o d u n d e r 1) R E U T L IN G E R , S (1 ): T e c h n iq u e s f o r P ro je c t A p p r a is a l U n d e r U n c e r ta in ty IB R D O c c a s io n a l P a p e r N o 10 W a s h in g to n , D C T h is p a p e r is o f s p e c ia l in te r e s t fro m th e u n c e r ta in ty p o in t o f v ie w R O E M E R , M a n d J.J S T E R N ( 7 ): T h e A p p is a l f o r D e v e lo p m e n t P ro je c ts A P c tic a l G u id e to P ro je c t A n a ly s is w ith C a s e S tu d ie s a n d S o lu tio n s N e w Y o rk a n d L o n d o n G iv e s a s u c c in c t su m m a ry o f c o s t b e n e f it a n a ly s is , to g e th e r w ith im a g in a ry c a s e - s tu d ie s w h ic h th e r e a d e r c a n w o rk th ro u g h R U T H E N B E R G , H (1 7 ): E in R a h m e n z u r P la n u n g u n d B e u rte ilu n g L a n d w irts c h a f tlic h e r E n tw ic k lu n g s p r o je c k te In : Z e its c h r ift f u r a u s la n d is c h e L a n d w irts c h a f t M a te ria ls a m m lu n g H e f t , T e il F n k fu r t a M S A R B E C K , R (1 9 ): D if fe r e n t a p p r o a c h e s to th e e s tim a tio n o f e c o n o m ic c o n v e r s io n f a c to rs to b e u s e d in p r o je c t a p p is a l In : C a h ie rs B E I -E IB P a p e r s , N o 2 E u ro p e a n I n v e s tm e n t B a n k , p p -2 , L u x e m b o u rg S C H N E ID E R , D ( ): In v e s titio n u n d F in a n z ie r u n g , O p la d e n S C O T T , M F G , J.D M A C A R T H U R a n d D M G N E W B E R R Y (1 7 ): P r o je c t A p p is a l in P c tic e T h e L ittle - M ir rle e s M e th o d A p p lie d in K e n y a L o n d o n , S e c u rity o f F a r m e rs in th e M o u n ta in o u s F a r m in g S y s te m s in N o r th w e s t V ie tn a m S Q U IR E , L a n d H G V A N D E R T A K ( ): E c o n o m ic A n a ly s is o f P ro je c ts A W o r ld B a n k R e s e a r c h P u b lic a tio n B a ltim o r e a n d L o n d o n R e fin e s a n d a d v a n c e s th e L ittle - M e r le e s a p p r o a c h t o a h ig ly s o p h is tic a te d le v e l O n ly f o r th o s e w h o a r e in te r e s te d in m o r e d e ta ile d a s p e c ts T R A N N G O C N G O A N , D A N G V A N M I N H v a N G U Y E N H U H H O N G ( 9 ): G ia o trin h h e th o n g n o n g n g h ie p N X B N o n g n g h ie p H a n o i, V ie t N a m U N I D O (1 ): G u id e lin e s f o r P ro je c t E v a lu a tio n , U n ite d N a tio n s N e w Y o rk