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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY *** SUMMARY OF PHD THESIS ASSESSING THE ROLE OF SEAFOOD EXPORTS TO VIETNAM'S ECONOMIC GROWTH THROUGH THE ERROR CORRECTION MODEL MAJOR: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS Code: 9310106 LÊ HẰNG MỸ HẠNH Hà Nội – 2022 The thesis is completed at Foreign Trade University Science instructors: Assoc Prof, Dr Nguyen Xuan Minh Reviewer 1: Reviewer 2: Reviewer 3: The research shall be presented in front of the council meeting at Foreign Trade University On This thesis can be consulted at the National Library and the Library of Foreign Trade University LIST OF PUBLICATIONS Building a vector error correction model to assess the impact of exports on economic growth, Asia Pacific Economic Review ISSN 0868-3808 December 2020 issue (co-authored) Vietnam’s seafood export situation and orientation of seafood industry development, Asia Pacific Economic Review ISSN 0868-3808 Issue 591 June 2021 Analyzing the relationship between seafood exports and economic growth of Vietnam's fisheries sector, 2021, Industry and Trade Magazine, ISSN 0866-7756, June 15, 2021 Evaluating the impact of exports on economic growth, ISSN 2615-8973 Review of Financial, July 2, 2021 INTRODUCTION Rationale of the research In more than 30 years of economic reform in our country, export has always been considered by the Party and state as an important field to promote the country's economic development Exports have contributed to the economic restructuring that drives production development, while promoting national economic growth through a variety of roles First, exports create favorable conditions for other industries to have opportunities to develop Secondly, exports create the possibility of expanding the consumption market, contributing to production development and stability And finally, exports facilitate the expansion of the ability to provide inputs for production, improving domestic production capacity Overall, the relationship between exports and economic growth has so far been a topical topic, of interest to researchers Although most studies support the view that exports promote economic growth, there is little skepticism about the impact of exports on economic growth Many models such as ECM, VECM or ADRL, FMOLS are used by researchers to assess the effects of exports on economic growth (Goh, Sam and McNown, 2017; Sothan, 2016; Pradhan, K.C.,2016; Jaunky, V.C., 2011; Lim and Ho, 2013; Shahbaz and Rahman, 2014; Dritsaki, 2014; Majid and Elahe, 2016; Tsitourasa and Nikas, 2016, Majid and Elahe 2016; Tsitourasa and Nikas, 2016) Many studies also analyze the impact of exports of a particular sector on a country's economic growth The results of the models mostly suggest a positive causality between exports and economic growth whether using multinational data or using data from a single country, or using data from an industry that impacts economic growth For Vietnam, seafood exports are one of the 10 industries with the highest export turnover, contributing much to the national GDP The fact that Vietnam is officially a member of the WTO has created favorable conditions for the expansion of Vietnam's seafood export market to the world In order to have a solution for Vietnam to develop sustainable seafood exports, the theme "Assessing the role of seafood exports to Vietnam's economic growth through the error correction model" was selected by doctoral students as the subject of his doctoral thesis research Through this thesis, the PhD student wishes to re-systemually the research models on the issue, and proposes the application of the error correction model (VECM) and the fully calibrated squared regression model (FMOLS) in assessing the impact of seafood exports on economic growth, clarifying the role of seafood exports in the economic growth of the sector as well as contributing to Vietnam's economic growth Thereby offering solutions to promote seafood exports, in order to affirm the role of seafood exports in the economic growth of the fishery sector in particular, and for national economic growth in general Research purposes Common goal: On the basis of theoretical systematization to identify transmission channels in the relationship between exports and economic growth, and also an overview of experimental studies that have been conducted in the world to select an experimental research model on the relationship between exports and economic growth in Vietnam Since then, the topic applies the FMOLS model and the VECM model to assess the impact of seafood exports and Vietnam's economic growth Specific goals: - Systematization of theoretical basis and theoretical model of exports and economic growth - Proposing a model to study the impact of seafood exports on industry economic growth and on Vietnam's economic growth - Applying the FMOLS model and the VECM model to experimentally study the impact of seafood exports on vietnam's fisheries economic growth and economic growth, along with the transmission channels in the model are multilateral real exchange rates, foreign direct investment, labor and commercial openness - Proposing solutions to strengthen seafood export activities to promote economic growth in the coming time Research questions In order to achieve the research objectives set and on the basis of the analysis of the research situation related to the content and approach of the thesis topic, the thesis author identifies some basic research questions as the basis for the study of the content of the thesis Those questions are: - What has been the situation of Vietnam's seafood exports since 2000? - How does Vietnam's seafood exports contribute to the economic growth of fisheries in the period of 2000 - 2019? - Will seafood exports affect Vietnam's economic growth in the period 2000- 2019? Subjects and scope of study 4.1 Study subjects: The subjects of the thesis are seafood exports and the role of seafood exports for the growth of the fishery sector and for Vietnam's GDP 4.2 Scope of study Space scope: the topic of conducting research on the relationship between seafood exports and economic growth in Vietnam Time range: Study of seafood export data, economic growth and macroeconomic variables for the period from 2000 to 2019 In 2000, Vietnam's economic had many notable milestones In July 2000, Vietnam and the United States signed a bilateral trade agreement, officially opening a new step in trade between the two countries Setting the stage for negotiating and signing free trade agreements with other countries is a major boost to Vietnam's import and export activities Export turnover in 2000 reached 14.3 billion USD and reached an average of 184 USD per year per capita, exceeding that of a poor country The export growth rate was 24.1%, 3.6 times higher than the GDP growth rate Also in 2000, seafood exports for the first time achieved a 23% increase, surpassing 1.4 billion USD, which is one of the industries with remarkable growth Content range: Within the scope of this study, the author studies the following contents: - Review the situation of export activities, but the impact does not discuss policies - Consider the relationship between seafood exports along with multilateral exchange rate transmission channels, foreign direct investment, labor and trade openness Other control variables were not considered in this study - The thesis focuses on assessing the contribution of seafood exports to the growth of the sector and of the national economy Research methods 5.1 Methodology and processing of research The thesis uses both the quantitative method and the quantitative research method, in which: Firstly, the thesis used quantitative research method: Use an inductive approach to make judgments from the results of data collection That is, collecting and inheriting data, previous studies on the field of fisheries development and economic growth, reports related to the fisheries sector (fisheries sector summary, fishery export summary, fisheries development scheme of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), General Department of Fisheries, Vietnam Seafood Processing and Export Association (VASEP), Ministry of Industry and Trade; reports and data on import and export of the General Department of Customs and the General Statistics Office) And from there, draw comments and assessments on the status of seafood exports Secondly, Quantitative research methods were used including: Statistical analysis method, description: Use Excel and Stata software to calculate and describe indicators of the size, structure, growth rate of the fields within the scope of the thematic research Calculate the average value, structure and growth rate of GDP factors, seafood export turnover (FEX), labor working in the economy (LAB), multilateral real exchange rate (REER), trade openness (OPEN), foreign direct investment (FDI) Then using macroeconomic data over time, the author inherited pre-trial studies and used a varnish model that corrected errors to test relevant hypotheses In it, use: Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) to assess the short- and longterm relationship between seafood exports along with other control variables to fisheries GDP Vector Error Correction Model (VECM): Assesses the short- and long-term relationship between seafood exports along with other transmissions to the gdp of the fisheries sector, considering the impact of shocks Both of these models are consistent with time series metrics and take into account endogenous variables in economic relationships Methods of data collection and processing - The thesis references data from studies, reports on fisheries sector summary, fishery export review, fisheries development scheme of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, General Department of Fisheries, VASEP, Ministry of Industry and Trade Reports and figures of import and export of the General Department of Customs and the General Statistics Office And the studies of institutes, schools, organizations and individuals in the field of fisheries development and economic growth - Secondary data on national GDP, fisheries and labor sectors working in the fisheries sector, foreign direct investment collected from the General Statistics Office; World Bank data; Data from the Asia Pacific Development Bank - General import and export turnover and of seafood collected from the General Department of Customs The exchange rate is collected from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development - The data collected is collected statistical calculation data described on EXCEL software and handles running the FMOLS, VECM regression model on Stata 14.0 software The contributions of the topic - The theoretical basis system on economic growth, exports, the theory of the effect of import and export expansion, the attractiveness in international trade, the impact of the exchange rate on import and export; elasticity, J glandular effect and VECM model, FMOLS Identify the relationship between exports and economic growth through the synthesis of experimental research models - Analyzing the status of seafood exports and economic growth of Vietnam in the period of 2000-2019 - Analyzing the situation of macroeconomic variables such as foreign direct investment, exchange rate and trade openness of The South in the period of 2000-2019 - Analyzing the situation of macroeconomic variables such as foreign direct investment, exchange rate and trade openness of The South in the period of 2000-2019 - Apply the FMOLS model and VECM model to assess the impact of seafood exports on the economic growth of the fisheries sector, as well as on Vietnam's economic growth in the period of 2000-2019 along with transmission channels such as multilateral real exchange rates and exalaration variables that are open to trade and foreign direct investment - Proposing directions and solutions for seafood exports along with other variables to promote Vietnam's economic growth Structure of thesis In addition to the introduction and conclusion, the thesis is divided into chapters as follows: Chapter 1: “Theoretical background on the relationship between exports and economic growth” introducing the theoretical basis of the relationship between exports and economic growth; Chapter 2: “literature review and theorical framework” presenting research overview and researching the theoretical framework related to the thesis; Chapter 3: “Vietnam economic growth and seafood exports since 2000”, analyzing the economic growth and the status of Vietnam's seafood exports since 2000 Chapter 4: Assessing the role of seafood exports in Vietnam economic growth, considering the relationship between seafood exports and the economic growth of the fisheries sector as well as Vietnam's economic growth, along with economic factors in the channel of transmission of the interaction between seafood exports and the economic growth of the fishery sector; By experimental model, Chapter 5: Solutions to promote economic growth through seafood exports in Vietnam, present the prospects of the fisheries sector and propose a number of measures to promote the positive relationship between seafood exports and economic growth in Vietnam CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL BACKGROUND ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 1.1 Economic growth 1.1.1 Concept Studies on economic growth have acknowledged that growth does not mean development, but growth is a necessary condition and a prerequisite for development The right awareness of economic growth and the effective application of experiences in economic growth research and policy making are important because economic growth and development are the first goals of all countries in the world, the main measure of progress in each stage of the country Economic growth, then, is understood as an increase in income achieved over a certain period of time (usually one year) by a country (or local) This increase is manifested in scale and speed Economic growth can be expressed by absolute numbers (growth scale) or relative numbers (growth rates) The scale of growth reflects an increase or less, while the growth rate is used with relative comparative significance and reflects a rapid or slow increase between periods The income of the economy can manifest as in kind or value 1.1.2 Indicators for assessing economic growth Economic growth, in general form, is the increase of gross national product (GNP) or gross domestic product (GDP) over a certain period of time (usually calculated for one year) (Dinh Phi Tiger, 2009) GDP and GNP indicators through the use of monetary measures can aggregate very rich and diverse outputs in terms of types and purposes in terms of quality of the economy This provides an effective tool for assessing a country's economic growth and development 1.1.3 Measure economic growth by popular approach The first can be measured by determining absolute growth: ΔY=Yt-Y0 With Y: GDP, GNP Yt: GDP, GNP at the time of t of the analysis period Y0: GDP, GNP at the time of the root of the analysis period 10 1.3 Theories about the impact of exports on economic growth 1.3.1 Classical Theory Adam Smith's theory of absolute advantage and David Ricardo 's theory of comparative advantage are typical representative of the classical theory of international trade These theories emphasize the role of production specialization, comparative advantage and productive efficiency in international trade Adam Smith was the first economist to give the arguments and basis for solving the problem for the advent of international exchange and trade Theory of absolute advantage Initiated by Adam Smith in his famous work "The Wealth of Nations” was first published in 1776 1.3.2 The theory of gravity Keynes' economic theory is considered as gravity theory because he emphasizes the role of consumption and exchange, considering consumption and exchange are important tasks that economists must deal with According to this theory, the cause of the economic crisis, unemployment and stagnation in the economy is the decrease in consumer demand Therefore, it is necessary to raise consumer demand and stimulate demand effectively Increased exports can also boost the economic growth rate from demand through transmission channels For example, Awokuse (2003) asserts that export expansion can be a stimulus to output growth directly as a component of aggregate demand, as well as indirectly through distributing efficiently allocate resources, effectively exploit economies of scale and stimulate technical innovation due to competition in foreign markets 1.3.3 Endogenous growth theory In the later stages of neoclassical theory, the representatives of new growth theory leaders such as Romer and Lucas had emphasized research and development, transform knowledge and positive externalities from human capital In addition, they claim that the long-run growth rate is determined within the model, so these models are also called endogenous growth models The production function of the endogenous growth model includes three factors: capital, labor is the two material factors and the third factor is human capital, also known as non-physical factors, including knowledge and skills of employees, creating labor efficiency or total factor productivity (Tran Tho Đat, 2010) 1.3.5 Theory of impact of exchange rate on import and export 11 The exchange rate and exchange rate policy are important factors in implementing the outward-looking strategy, promoting import and export An official exchange rate adjusted for relevant inflation is called an inflation-adjusted exchange rate or related or real exchange rate An increase or decrease in the exchange rate will change the value of imported and exported goods, affecting the profitability of import-export businesses 1.3.6 Elasticity Theory - Linear Effect J The J-curve is a line that describes the current account situation that worsens in the short run and improves only in the long run The line representing this phenomenon resembles the shape of a J According to the research results of Krugman (1991), who found the Jcurve effect when analyzing the US dollar devaluation during 1985-1987, the current account initially deteriorated, then about two the current account balance has improved The J-curve is a line that depicts a country's current account falling immediately after the country devalues its currency, and it takes a while for the current account to begin to improve This process, if represented graphically, will give a shape like the letter J From theoretical frameworks, it has been shown that exports and economic growth have a two-way relationship that interacts with each other This process sets up a Virtuous Circle in the relationship between exports and economic growth The Virtuous Circle Model on the relationship between exports and growth economy shows a positive opencircle relationship between exports and economic growth (Figure 1.3) In the circle, the faster output growth increases productivity due to the economics of scale and promoting technological progress (Verdoorn’s Law) It results to drop of production costs and commodity prices This leads to an increase in real exchange rate, and improvement in competitiveness in international trade and therefore promoting exports The increase in exports will boost output growth through Keynesian multiplier effects, increasing consumer demand and stimulating investment The cycle continues when the economy achieves higher productivity 12 Economic Exports growth Keynesian multiplier grwoth effects, increasing consumer demand Export demand Economies of scale and promoting function with a technological high relative progress price Reducing (Verdoorn’s Law) production costs Increasing the real and prices exchange rate, Productivity improving growth competitiveness Figure 1: The virtuous circle model of the relationship between exports and economic growth Source: Blecker (2009) 13 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORICAL FRAMEWORK 2.1 Empirical Studies in individual countries Using time series data in separate countries on the relationship between exports and economic growth, empirical studies have produced conflicting results Some authors had rejected the idea that exports promote economic growth, for example, Waithea, Lordeb and Francisb (2011) studying in Mexico and found that in the long run, exports have a negative impact on growth rate, which is likely caused by high imports, limited exports and weak linkages with domestic suppliers Most studies supported the view that export leaded to economic growth, such as Shirazi and Manap (2005), Javed et al (2012), Ahmad, D., and Ahmad, J (2018) study in Pakistan, He and Zhang (2010) study in China, Lordeb and Francisb (2011) study in Mexico, Mishra (2011) study in India or Shafiullah, Selvanathan and Naranpanawa (2017) study in Australia, Bakari, S., & Mabrouki, M (2017) research in Panama Some Vietnamese researcher also supported this view like Nguyen Thi Thu Thuy (2014), Nguyen Quang Hiep (2014, 2016), Dao Thi Bich Thuy (2016) There are several quantitative methods are used to estimate the relationship between exports and economic growth, such as OLS, VAR, ARDL, FMOLS, VECM, because the datasets in these studies are mainly time series data, and essentially all consider endogenous variables and cointegration relationships 2.2 Empirical reseaches using multinational data Similar to studies using single-country data, most studies using multinational data supporte the view that exports are the engine of economic growth There are many studies that consider foreign direct investment while analysis the relationship between exports and economic growth(Acaravci, A., & Öztürk, İ., İ (2012) ), Yao, S., & Wei, K (2007), or they might consider remittances, exchange rates (Pradhan, KC (2016))… The FMOLS and VECM methods are also commonly used to examine the short-run and long-run relationship between exports and economic growth (Jaunky, VC (2011), Ee, CY (2016), Pradhan, KC (2016), Tsitourasa and Nikas (2016), Wen, X., Li, L., Sun, S., He, Q., & Tsai , FS (2019)) 2.3 Review of previous studies and reseaorch gaps Researchers around the world have used several methord such as OLS, 2SLS, ARDL (Goh, Sam and McNown, 2017, Sothan, 2016), FMOLS (Pradhan, K C.,2016, Jaunky, V C., 2011), ECM as well as VECM in assessing the effects of exports on economic growth (Lim and Ho, 2013; Shahbaz and Rahman, 2014; Dritsaki, 2014; 14 Majid and Elahe, 2016; Tsitourasa and Nikas, 2016); Sothan (2016), Goh, Sam and McNown (2017) The real multilateral exchange rate is the intermediate variable between exports and economic growth (Esfahani, 1991; Khan and Saqib, 1993; Nguyen Quang Hiep, 2014) Many studies on the relationship between exports and economic growth also consider foreign direct investment (Yao, S., & Wei, K (2007), Acaravci, A., & Öztürk, İ (2012)) Trade openness is also considering while examining the impact of exports on economic growth (Tan, BW, & Tang, CF (2016 Esfahani, 1991; Khan and Saqib, 1993; Nguyen Quang Hiep, 2014), (2013)) Some studies also determined the relationship between export of agricultural products, export of services, export of fish, export of aquatic products, or export of oil and economic growth ( Sanjuán-López, AI, & Dawson, PJ (2010), Golub, S., & Varma, A (2014), Ahmad, D., and Ahmad, J (2018 Jaunky, VC (2011) )… In general, Vietnamese studies only evaluated the relationship between exports and economic growth at the national level, there is no research that specifically evaluates seafood exports to economic growth Therefore, in this topic, the author wants to emphasize the role of fisheries in the fisheries economic growth, contributing to economic growth in Vietnam 2.4 Research model of the thesis Figure 2: Research model of the relationship between seafood export and economic growth Source: Author's proposal, 2020 The reseach framwork in figure 2.1 is proposed from theoretical overview and experimental researches, which considering the relationship between seafood export and 15 economic growth in Vietnam, based on the development of a forward spiral model with some transmission channels like REER, FDI and trade openess CHAPTER 3: VIETNAM ECONOMIC GROWTH AND SEAFOOD EXPORTS SINCE 2000 3.1 Situation of economic growth in Vietnam from 2000 to present Over the past two decades, Vietnam's GDP growth rate is classified to high groups compared to other countries in region and over the world(Nguyen Manh Hiep,2018) In 2019, the growth rate of Vietnam's economy leading other countries in the region, reaching over 7% is good news in the context of slowing global economic growth From the beginning of 2020, the Covid 19 pandemic has comprehensively and deeply affected all countries in the world, which considered as a year of great difficulties and challenges for the world economy in general and Vietnam in particular The world economy is forecasted to have the most severe recession in history, with the growth of major economies all falling deeply due to the negative impact of the Covid-19 epidemic Although having well controlled on the Covid-19 epidemic, Vietnam’s economy still has a serious impact According to the General Statistics Office, in 2020, Vietnam's economy achieved a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 2.91%, the lowest level in the 2000-2020 period (Figure 3.1), but it is the highest growth rate in the world It seems a success for our country in the negative impact of the Covid-19 epidemic Along with China and Myanmar, Vietnam is one of three countries in Asia with positive growth in 2020 At the same time, the scale of our economy reached more than 343 billion USD, surpassing Singapore (337.5 billion USD) and Malaysia (336.3 billion USD), making Vietnam the 4th largest economy in Southeast Asia (after Indonesia 1,088.8 billion USD (General Statistics Office, 2021) 16 20 Vietnam 10 Japan 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 -5 2004 Thailand 2003 2002 China 2001 2000 Tốc dộ tăng GDP (%) 15 Myanmar Lao PDR -10 Philippines -15 Năm Figure 3: Vietnam's GDP growth rate compared to other countries in the region from 2000 to 2020 Source: World Development Indicator 3.2 Vietnam seafood production and export revenue from 2000 to present 3.2.1 Vietnam seafood production situation from 2000 to now According to the General Statistics Office (2021), the total seafood production of Vietnam in 2020 will reach 8.4 million tons, an increase of nearly times compared to 2000 with an average growth rate of more than 7% per year In which, aquaculture production accounted for 54.2% From 2000 to 2006, fishing production accounted for the majority of the structure of aquatic products (always over 50%) However, from 2007 to 2020, the aquaculture industry has been developing more and more, so the proportion of aquaculture has become more and more dominant in the total national fishery output In 2009, the major economies which are the main seafood export markets of Vietnam heavily affected by the economic crisis Thereby our seafood exports decrease over the same period It leads to low selling prices, affecting production efficiency and sustainability of seafood exports In addition, it Vietnam seafood exposts are alos under the pressure of unfair competition from other exporters, such as partners down export prices down too low with low quality (high rate of glazing, use of water-retaining chemicals, etc.) .) not only harms the efficiency and interests of fish farmers but also affects the reputation of Vietnamese pangasius, creating an excuse for bad information in the press in other countries, leading to the risk of losing market 17 3.2.2 Vietnam’s seafood export turnover from 2000 to present According to the General Department of Customs (2021), the total value of seafood export turnover in 2020 will reach US$8.4 billion, increasing 5.6 times compared to 2000, reachs the average growth rate of 9.7%/year In the period 20002010, Vietnam's seafood exports increased rapidly in both value and quantity The Progressive development of science and technology has contributed to the rapid development of the seafood industry with export turnover continuously increasing from 1.48 billion USD in 2000 to 4.95 billion USD in 2010,reaches a growth rate of 2.8%/year Seafood products have been exported to 163 countries and territories EU, US and Japan are main markets of Vietnam seafood Since the economic crisis took place, Vietnam's seafood export began to face many difficulties, so in the period 20112020 the growth rate was only about 4%/year, lower than the period 2000- 2010 3.2.3 Vietnam's seafood export structure The structure of seafood exports of Vietnam in recent years has been divided into main groups: shrimp of all kinds, pangasius, tuna, other fish, molluscs and crabs and other crustaceans Among the main groups of aquatic products for export, shrimp of all kinds, pangasius and fish of all kinds are the main export products of Vietnam Shrimp continues to be Vietnam’s leading seafood export product From 2010-2020, shrimp exports account for the largest partof Vietnam’s total seafood export volume, the highest growth rate and the most stable increase Shrimp export value increased more than times from 2.107 billion USD to 3.73 billion USD per year, accounting for an increasing proportion of total seafood production, from 41.1% to 44.5% Pangasius exports are 1.292 billion USD to 1.5 billion USD, however, the proportion of total exports will decrease from 25.2% by 2020 to 17.7% % The reason for the decrease in the proportion of total export turnover is that Vietnam's pangasius products face some difficulties in the European and American markets, such as the tightening of the control of chlorate residues in products by Europe Pangasius imported from Vietnam, or the US imposition of anti-dumping tax on Vietnamese pangasius products in 2019 Exports of crabs and molluscs have the most modest proportions 3.2.4 Vietnam seafood export market 18 Vietnam exports seafood to more than 160 markets around the world In which, the top major markets include the US, EU, Japan, China, Korea and ASEAN In recent years, exports to the EU have slowed down, to ASEAN and South Korea have been stable, while exports to China have grown the most, while exports to the US and Japan have also maintained positive growth (General Department of Customs, 2021) 3.2.5 Achievements and limitations in Vietnam seafood exports Vietnam exports the most to the United States (US$41.5 billion), then to the EU, China, ASEAN, Japan, Korea Key export items include phones and components; electronics, computers and components Export turnover of seafood products increased sharply, always ranked in the top 10 key export products Seafood export turnover has grown strongly year by year with an average growth rate of 15.6%/year This growth process has made Vietnam become one of the five largest seafood exporters in the world, playing a key role in providing global seafood However, Vietnam seafood exports have face many challenges from markets, such as the impact of the catfish inspection program and the EU's yellow card warning for Vietnamese seafood There are also difficulties in seed sources, food sources, loans make production costs high, lead to less competion in international market 19 CHAPTER 4: ASSESSMENT OF THE ROLE OF AQUATIC EXPORTS FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM 4.1 Research Equation From analyzing theorical framework in Chapter 2, the author considers the equation to study the impact of exports on economic growth using the logarithmic base natural form as follows: LnGDP= β0+ β1LnFEX+ β2LnREER+ β3LnOPEN+ β4LnLAB + β5LnFDI +εi To evaluate the role of seafood exports to the fisheries sector, the author estimates the following mode: LnFGDP= β0+ β1LnFEX+ β2LnREER+ β3LnOPEN+ β4LnLAB + β5LnFDI +εi Regarding the data used in the thesis, the author collects from specific sources as follows: - Secondary data on GDP of the whole country, GDP of fishery industry, laborers working in the economy, foreign direct investment capital are collected from the General Statistics Office; World Bank data - Trade openness is collected from Asia Pacific Development Bank - Seafood export turnover collected from the General Department of Customs - The real effective exchange rate (REER) collected from Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development 4.2 Description of data - Fishery sector GDP FGDP, FEX seafood export value, Labor working in LAB economy are taken from General Statistics Office (comparative price 2010) - Average Real Effective Exchange Rate REER of 10 countries quarterly, Average Trade Openness OPEN Quarterly, Average Foreign Investment FDI Quarterly for the period 2000-2019 4.3 Check for stationarity of data The FMOLS and VECM models require all research variables to be stationary, therefore, before entering the model estimate Therefore, the study will perform the stationarity test for all variables The thesis applies the unit root test method Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) to test the stationarity of the variables 4.4 Analyzing the impact of seafood exports on the economic growth of Vietnam seafood industry using the VECM model The author considers the model: LnFGDP= β0+ β1LnFEX+ β2LnREER+ β3LnOPEN+ β4LnLAB + β5LnFDI +εi (1) 20 Regression results using the VECM model to consider the long-term impact, we see that the variables L.d.LnFGDP, LnFDI are statistically significant at 1% significance level The LnLAB variable is statistically significant at the 5% level of significance The remaining variables LnREER, LnOPEN have not found a statistically significant effect on GDP growth of seafood In which, the variable LnLAB has the expected sign opposite to the original hypothesis, the remaining variables all satisfy the expected sign of the hypothesis The LnREER and LnOPEN variables are not statistically significant as well as the LnLAB variable not as expected can be due to the nature of the time series data which is often endogenous From this result, we see that seafood exports have a positive impact on the growth of the seafood industry in the long run n fact, in recent years, seafood exports have contributed most to the seafood industry GDP In 2019, seafood export turnover reached US$8.6 billion, seafood exports contributed most to the GDP of the fishery industry in particular and significantly contributed to the GDP of the agro-forestry-fishery industry in general (VASEP, 2020) Due to the impact of the covid 19 epidemic, Vietnam's seafood export turnover in 2020 slightly decrease 4.5 Analyzing the impact of seafood exports on Vietnam's economic growth using the FMOLS model and the VECM model Considering the model: LnGDP= β0+ β1LnFEX+ β2LnREER+ β3LnOPEN+ β4LnLAB + β5LnFDI +εi (2) 4.5.1 Research results using the FMOLS method Long term analysis The FMOLS Estimation show that there are influence of the variables LnFEX, REER, LnOPEN on LnGDP in the long run as follows: - The variable LnFEX has an impact coefficient of 0.361650 with a significance level of 1%, showing a positive long-term impact of seafood export turnover on GDP growth of the whole country This result is similar to the study of Shahzad (2014) on the long-term positive relationship of exports and economic growth in South Asian countries, and the study of Vo Hong Duc and Nguyen Cong Thang (2021) with the case of developing countries in the period from 1990-2019 - The variable LnREER has an impact coefficient of 2.394762 with a significance level of 1%, proving that the multilateral exchange rate also has a negative impact in the long run on GDP growth of the country When REER increases by 1%, the impact on GDP growth of the whole country increases by 2,0591% in the long run In fact, in recent years, Vietnam Dong has become more valuable in the world basket of goods 21 - The variable LnOPEN has an impact factor of 0.086563 It proves that trade openness has a positive long-term impact on GDP growth of the whole country However, the model has not found statistical significance for this variable - Labor variable (LnLAB) has a regression coefficient of - 5.471718 and foreign direct investment capital (LnFDI) has a regression coefficient of 0.254462, and both are statistically significant at 1% significance level The FDI inflows into Vietnam in recent years along with technological transformation has given Vietnam many impetus in economic growth The FDI sector creates jobs, makes a great contribution to export products, leads to economic restructuring and contributes to the country's GDP 4.5.2 Research results using VECM Short term analysis In the vector error correction model (VECM), the unbalanced portion in one cycle is corrected in the next cycle The error correction process harmonizes the short-run dynamics with the long-run equilibrium (Kremers et al., 1992) Error correction coefficient CE1(t-1) = - 0.152463 has statistically significant 1% It proves that there is a long-run relationship between explanatory variables and GDP growth in Vietnam At the same time, this coefficient indicates the error correction rate of the model, that is, when the balance is lost due to economic shocks in the previous year, it is immediately adjusted downward to return to the long-term equilibrium in the consequence year The variable LdLnFEX has an impact coefficient of 0.64546 and is statistically significant at the 1% significance level, that is, in the short run, when seafood exports increase by 1%, GDP increases by 0.645 % after precious Long-term impact analysis The variable LnFEX has a positive impact on Vietnam's economic growth with statistical significance of 10% Variables LnFDI and REER have a positive impact on Vietnam's economic growth with statistical significance of 1%; variable LnLAB and variable LnOPEN have a negative impact on GDP growth with statistical significance of 5% The experimental results are opposite to those of Sakyi et al (2012), Shahbaz et al (2013a), Shahbaz et al (2013b), Vo Hong Duc and Nguyen Cong Thang (2021) 22 CHƯƠNG 5: SOLUTIONS TO PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH THROUGH SEAFOOD EXPORTS IN VIETNAM This research results support the view that exports lead the economic growth, and seafood exports also make an important contribution to Vietnam economic development In the general context of the Covid 19 pandemic, Vietnam's seafood exports in the last months of 2021 are forecasted to increase again due to the recovery in EU’s demand for seafood, along with special incentives for seafood tariffs from the EVFTA(VASEP, 2021 In the long term, seafood export is assessed as a spearhead economic sector, which receives special attention from the Party and State Vietnam's seafood brand is not only affirmed in the country but also well received by many countries around the world Therefore, it is really necessary to orient the development strategy for the industry in each period to face with the fluctuations of the world market 5.1 Forecast of Vietnam's seafood export prospects According to the draft approving the strategy for developing Vietnam's fisheries to 2030, with a vision to 2045, some key indicators are as follows: Vision to 2030: a) The growth rate of aquaculture production value will reach 3.5-4.0%/year in the period of 2021-2030 b) The total production of aquatic products produced in the country reaches 9.8 million tons; in which aquaculture production is 7.0 million tons, fishing output is 2.8 million tons c) The value of seafood export turnover is 18-20 billion USD d) 100% of production and business establishments meet environmental standards e) Create jobs for 3.5 million workers f) The average income per fishery worker is equivalent to the average income of the whole country Vision to 2045: Seafood industry is a modern, green and sustainable economic and commercial sector with advanced management and science and technology levels; Vietnam will become a high-quality seafood processing center in ASEAN and Asia, and ranked to one of three leading seafood producing and exporting countries in the world Seafood also holds an important position in the structure of agricultural and marine economic 23 sectors, contributing to ensuring food and nutrition security, defending national defense and security, sovereignty over seas and islands of the country; guaranteed social security, green, clean, beautiful and civilized fishing village; Fishery workers have income equal to the national average income 5.2 Solutions to increase Vietnam's seafood exports From analyzising the current situation and the role of seadfood exports in Chapters and 4, it is concluded that seafood exports play an important role in the seafood industry in particular, contributing restructuring the agricultural, forestry and fishery industry in general, and plays an important role in the national economy Empirical research results also show that factors such as trade openness, FDI and also the multilateral real exchange rate are the transmission factors in the relationship between the impact of seafood exports and economic growth in Vietnam So, in order to achieve the goal of increasing seafood exports to contribute to economic growth, the following solutions should be implemented: Firstly, it is necessary to come up with solutions to support fisheries development, for example, it is necessary to review to effectively implement policies related to supporting fisheries development, investment and development of aquaculture, processing and farming seafood processing to improve productivity and product quality Secondly, it is necessary to provide solutions to support export activities Vietnam Government needs to step up institutional reform and perfect the legal corridor for export activities Take advantage of the progress of signed FTAs as well as review the FTAs that are to be signed to enhance integration and facilitate the expansion of export markets Thirdly, The Government needs to apply an appropriate exchange rate policy to encourage exports in general and seafood exports in particular Fourthly, it is necessary to consider credit solutions, creating conditions for businesses and seafood producers to continue needing cheap capital to invest in increasing production scale, minimizing costs, and increasing competitiveness The Government also needs solutions to attract foreign investment to support seafood exports In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to human resource legislation or scientific and technical solutions in aquaculture, fishing and seafood processing 24 CONCLUSION It can be said that, in the current period, seafood is one of the key export products of Vietnam Anually, seafood exports not only help restructure the agricultural sector, create jobs for workers in rural areas, but also make a great contribution to the state budget Vietnam's seafood products are establishing a position in the market The fields of fishing and aquaculture, which are oriented to be developed for export Sequences the success in export have become the driving force behind the development of fishing and aquaculture Through this thesis, the author has systematized the theoretical basis for economic growth, export, synthesized empirical research models to identify the relationship between export and economic growth Simultaneously with the analysis of the current situation of macroeconomic variables, the thesis also analyzed the status of seafood export and economic growth of Vietnam from 2000 to present For empirical research, the thesis has applied the FMOLS and the VECM to assess the impact of seafood exports on the fishery industry’ growth, as well as on the Vietnam economic growth in the period 2000-2019, along with a transmission channel such as the real multilateral exchange rate and other variables including trade openness and foreign direct investment Through the research results, the author proposes sugestions and solutions to increase seafood export activities, contributing to promoting Vietnam's economic growth This thesis supports the view that exports lead the economic growth However, the author only considers from the perspective of seafood exports From this study, it can be suggested for further studies on the assessment of the role of other export sectors in economic growth From there, it is possible to analyze more clearly how exports affect Vietnam's economic growth using data of key economic sectors Contributing to orientation for economic restructuring, and for the development of major economic sectors, contributing to industrialization and modernization of Vientam ... economy Research methods 5.1 Methodology and processing of research The thesis uses both the quantitative method and the quantitative research method, in which: Firstly, the thesis used quantitative... and the General Statistics Office) And from there, draw comments and assessments on the status of seafood exports Secondly, Quantitative research methods were used including: Statistical analysis... exchange rate on import and export 11 The exchange rate and exchange rate policy are important factors in implementing the outward-looking strategy, promoting import and export An official exchange