PHẦN 5 : KẾT LUẬN
5.2. xuất chính sách
Thứ nhất, chính phủ và các cơ quan tiền tệ nên khuyến khích khu vực ngân hàng sử dụng cơng nghệ như internet, cell-phone banking và máy rút tiền tự động (ATM), tăng cường nhiều sản phẩm tài chính cung cấp cho khách hàng. Việc sử dụng công nghệ ngày càng tăng làm cho phạm vi phát triển của ngành tài chính tăng lên có tác động tích cực đến việc truyền dẫn chính sách tiền tệ.
Thứ hai, chính phủ cần hợp tác với Ngân hàng Trung ương, tạo cơ sở dữ liệu tài chính cho tín dụng tiêu dùng, tạo điều kiện thuận lợi cho các ngân hàng thương mại tiếp cận với mức độ tin cậy của khách hàng tiềm năng. Điều này sẽ làm giảm số dư nợ xấu cũng như cải thiện chất lượng tín dụng của các ngân hàng, qua đó làm tăng vai trị trung gian tài chính của các ngân hàng. Việc tăng số lượng các khoản vay khơng hiệu quả làm tăng phí bảo hiểm rủi ro, làm cho tín dụng tốn kém, và kết quả là các ngân hàng sẽ gia tăng dự trữ dư thừa ảnh hưởng tiêu cực đến việc truyền dẫn.
Thứ ba, chính phủ hợp tác với Ngân hàng Trung ương nhằm tăng cường nỗ lực thúc đẩy sự phát triển của thị trường tiền tệ và trái phiếu. Sự phát triển của các thị trường này sẽ cung cấp các nguồn tài chính thay thế cho các nhà đầu tư cũng như người gửi tiền, do đó tăng mức độ cạnh tranh giữa khu vực ngân hàng và phi ngân hàng. Kết quả dẫn đến sự gia tăng cạnh tranh, đảm bảo lãi suất cho vay và tiền gửi theo sát diễn biến của lãi suất chiết khấu của Ngân hàng Trung ương, tăng cường hiệu quả truyền dẫn chính sách tiền tệ và do đó cải thiện IRPT.
DANH MỤC TÀI LIỆU THAM KHẢO
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Gambacorta, L. (2005). Inside the bank lending channel. European Economic Review, 49, 1737-1759.
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PHỤ LỤC
1. Kết quả kiểm định tính dừng bằng phương pháp ADF 1.1. Giai đoạn trước khủng hoảng
1.1.1. Lãi suất tiền gửi
Null Hypothesis: DR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=12)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.087030 0.2504 Test critical values: 1% level -3.496346
5% level -2.890327
10% level -2.582196
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Null Hypothesis: D(DR) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=12)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -8.126077 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.497029
5% level -2.890623
10% level -2.582353
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
1.1.2. Lãi suất cho vay
Null Hypothesis: LR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=12)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.270940 0.1834 Test critical values: 1% level -3.496346
5% level -2.890327
10% level -2.582196
Null Hypothesis: D(LR) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=12)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -9.554105 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.497029
5% level -2.890623
10% level -2.582353
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
1.1.3. Lãi suất chính sách
Null Hypothesis: PR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=12)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.755034 0.0001 Test critical values: 1% level -3.496346
5% level -2.890327
10% level -2.582196
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Null Hypothesis: D(PR) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=12)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -10.09135 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.497029
5% level -2.890623
10% level -2.582353
1.2. Giai đoạn sau khủng hoảng 1.2.1. Lãi suất tiền gửi
Null Hypothesis: DR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=11)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.715085 0.8370 Test critical values: 1% level -3.503049
5% level -2.893230
10% level -2.583740
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Null Hypothesis: D(DR) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=11)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.096527 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.503049
5% level -2.893230
10% level -2.583740
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
1.2.2. Lãi suất cho vay
Null Hypothesis: LR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=11)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.371674 0.9086 Test critical values: 1% level -3.502238
5% level -2.892879
10% level -2.583553
Null Hypothesis: D(LR) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=11)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -8.466367 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.503049
5% level -2.893230
10% level -2.583740
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
1.2.3. Lãi suất chính sách
Null Hypothesis: PR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=11)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.164769 0.6869 Test critical values: 1% level -3.502238
5% level -2.892879
10% level -2.583553
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Null Hypothesis: D(PR) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=11)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -10.89914 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.503049
5% level -2.893230
10% level -2.583740
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
2. Kết quả kiểm định tính dừng bằng phương pháp PP 2.1. Giai đoạn trước khủng hoảng
Null Hypothesis: DR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Bandwidth: 5 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
Adj. t-Stat Prob.* Phillips-Perron test statistic -2.301881 0.1734 Test critical values: 1% level -3.496346
5% level -2.890327
10% level -2.582196
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Null Hypothesis: D(DR) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Bandwidth: 5 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
Adj. t-Stat Prob.* Phillips-Perron test statistic -8.120089 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.497029
5% level -2.890623
10% level -2.582353
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
2.1.2. Lãi suất cho vay
Null Hypothesis: LR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Bandwidth: 0 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
Adj. t-Stat Prob.* Phillips-Perron test statistic -2.270940 0.1834 Test critical values: 1% level -3.496346
5% level -2.890327
10% level -2.582196
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Null Hypothesis: D(LR) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Bandwidth: 0 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
Adj. t-Stat Prob.* Phillips-Perron test statistic -9.554105 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.497029
5% level -2.890623
10% level -2.582353
2.1.3. Lãi suất chính sách
Null Hypothesis: PR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Bandwidth: 4 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
Adj. t-Stat Prob.* Phillips-Perron test statistic -4.748478 0.0002 Test critical values: 1% level -3.496346
5% level -2.890327
10% level -2.582196
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Null Hypothesis: D(PR) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Bandwidth: 3 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
Adj. t-Stat Prob.* Phillips-Perron test statistic -10.09287 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.497029
5% level -2.890623
10% level -2.582353
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
2.2. Giai đoạn sau khủng hoảng
2.2.1. Lãi suất tiền gửi
Null Hypothesis: DR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Bandwidth: 5 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
Adj. t-Stat Prob.* Phillips-Perron test statistic -0.689167 0.8436 Test critical values: 1% level -3.502238
5% level -2.892879
10% level -2.583553
Null Hypothesis: D(DR) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Bandwidth: 3 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
Adj. t-Stat Prob.* Phillips-Perron test statistic -6.140617 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.503049
5% level -2.893230
10% level -2.583740
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
2.2.2. Lãi suất cho vay
Null Hypothesis: LR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Bandwidth: 4 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
Adj. t-Stat Prob.* Phillips-Perron test statistic -0.611829 0.8619 Test critical values: 1% level -3.502238
5% level -2.892879
10% level -2.583553
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Null Hypothesis: D(LR) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Bandwidth: 3 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
Adj. t-Stat Prob.* Phillips-Perron test statistic -8.532154 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.503049
5% level -2.893230
10% level -2.583740
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
2.2.3. Lãi suất chính sách
Null Hypothesis: PR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Bandwidth: 1 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
Adj. t-Stat Prob.* Phillips-Perron test statistic -1.061800 0.7280 Test critical values: 1% level -3.502238
5% level -2.892879
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Null Hypothesis: D(PR) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Bandwidth: 2 (Newey-West automatic) using Bartlett kernel
Adj. t-Stat Prob.* Phillips-Perron test statistic -10.87008 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.503049
5% level -2.893230
10% level -2.583740