Qua Slf trlnh bay va phan tfch a cac phan tren, CO th~ neu ra ffiQt vai
ket lu~n v~ nhfrng vftn d~ co ban rna CHDCNDTI dang doi m~t sau day:
1. Ve khia c:;tnh kinh te: CHDCNDTI phai nh~n thuc r6 ca co h<?i Ian
thach thuc doi voi n~n kinh te cua mlnh. Co h<?i dang n)ng rna do Sl! rna r()ng kinh te trong ph~m Vi khu Vl!C bao gom ca nhfrng quan h~ kinh te tuong tac
d~u mang y nghia tich Cl!C va n6 b<)c 19 khuynh huang khong th~ dao nguqc. Tuy~t d~i cac quoc gia trong khu V\{C da va dang rna r()ng duemg cho m<)t n~n kinh te th! truong d\{a tren Sl! tu nhan hoa. St! minh b~ch, each tan va Sl!
c~nh tranh da tro thanh nhG'ng yeu to rat quan tr<;mg cho tang truemg kinh te va chung Se tiep ll;IC dUQ'C khuyen khich trong h~u het cac quoc gia trong vung. Si! bien thien trong tang tnrong se tiep tl;IC, giong nhu m()t khuynh huang phat tri~n phu hqp v6'i m<?t thai d<;ti moi. Hon nfra, toan c~u hoa da dua t6'i nhfrng van de kinh te cua rieng n6 cho cac qu6c gia hi~n nay. Vi the n6
doi hoi CHDCNDTT phai c6 nhfrng St! dieu chinh dien ra a m<)t toe d<)
"chong m~t lan nhfrng nhfrng dieu chinh d6n dau".
Dau dng con nhfrng dieu hoai nghi bao phu tren ban diio Trieu Tien
song nhfrng quan h~ kinh te trong ph<;tm vi n<)i kh6i nhln chung van c6 nhieu dau hi~u tfch ctJc. Hon nua, nhu da duqc nhftn m~nh ban dau, yeu to kinh te
gio day dong vai tro quan trQng lam gia tang Sl! pht.J thu<)c Ian nhau. Tuy v~y, thach thuc d6i v6'i nen kinh te CHDCND Tri~u Tien dang roi vao sl_l' co l~p va
l~c long ve mo hlnh. CHDCNDTT hi~n dang chiu ap ll_J'c qua 16'n ttr nhii'ng kh6 khan kinh te doi hoi phai giai quyet ngay' d6 la van d~ lucmg thl;l'c; nang
luqng; can bang ngo~i thuong; va rna dra n~n kinh te. Di~u nay cho thay day Ia m<)t sv ltJa chQn kh6 khan va phuc t~p bu()c cac nha lanh d<;to cua dat nuoc nay phai hanh d<)ng m()t each tich ClJC hon. Cilng c6 y kien cho rang cai each
kinh "te rieng n6 khong th~ lam s6ng le;ti n6n kinh te 6m yeu eua CHDCNDTI. Tri~n vc;mg cho Sl! phl;le hoi vfrng chac n6n kinh te cua dat mr6c nay can phai c6 Sl! trq giup ttr ben ngoai. Vl v~y, CHDCNDTI tiep tl;lc can SIJ trq giup Iuong thtJc tru6c khi n6 e6 th~ tra lc;ti hi~n tre;tng ltJ tuc duqc luang thve. He;> cling can m¢t khoi luqng von dau tu rat 16n d~ nang cao nang Ivc san xuat nong nghi¢p, nh~p kh~u cong ngh~ hi~n dl;li, va kh6i phl;le ll;li nganh khai khming, eac nha may che t~o va he;t tang co so. Cuqc khung hodng lu;zt nhdn hi¢n thifi m(ic dti da c6 nhilng tie'n bq dang kl. Tuy nhien n6 vdn tiep life d(it s~t trr; giup nia cqng dong quoc te' vao mqt giai dot;tn chif dr;i
va ntng of niern tin. Chtrng nao rna van de nay chua duqc giai quyet hoan toan va tri~t d~ th1 nhfrng tien b¢ hu6ng toi eac t6 chuc tai chfnh quoc te nhu ADB (Ngan hang phat triin Chau a) hay WB (Ngan hang the gi6'i) d6i v6i CHDCNDTI con m¢t khoang each nao d6.
Song hi¢n tt;zi, dl khoi ph~tc va phat triln kinh te' be'n vilng, y kiln cua nhie'u nha kinh te' cho rang CHDCND vdn nen quyet tam th~rc hi¢n cdi each kinh te' mqt each toan di¢n d~ra tren cac nguyen t&c thi truifng. Nhung dieu
nay c6 th~ se nay sinh mau thuan m6i. Vi¢c mb dra nen kinh te cua minh va ci1i each h¢ thong kinh te eua n6 m<)t each m1;1nh me CO th~ dan t6i SlJ Sl;lp d6 che d¢ chfnh tfi. N6i m¢t each ngan gc;m han, xuat phat tll' g6c d<) kinh te ket
hqp v6i cac yeu to chfnh tri va xa h¢i, cai each kinh te 6 CHDCNDTI dang doi m~t v6i 3 thach thuc chinh rna ban Hinh d1;1o mr6c nay phai suy tinh:
- Thit nhat, mijc ddu ban lanh dt;zo CHDCNDIT dur;c kY vqng La tie'p
t~tc theo dudi nhfing bi¢n phap cdi each kinh te: nhung thgt kh6 khan cho h9 c6 thl chap nh(ln mqt each chinh tlnl:c cac chinh sach c6 suy cdi each kinh te' va mit cita rqng riii h(Jn niia. Ly do dur;c cho La nhilng chinh sach nay c6 thl dnh huitng tifi St! ton tt;ti cLta che' dq chinh trj.
- Thit hai, nhitng khia a,mh dnh huang tire thi cua cdi each nhu Ia h;m phat phi mii dang lam gia tang khodng each gifia giau va ngheo ciing nhu Ia /am nay sinh Slf tlzam nhiing se nlzanh chong trJ thanJz Cllc wJ'n de' XQ lzqi nghiem trr;mg va huy ho(fi cac tiln b() kinh te' d(ft dur;c.
- Thit ba, Sf! gia tang cac hogt d¢ng kinh tl tu: nluin khie'n mJ rqng Slf
khac bi¢t gifia cac tdng lop dan cu: va cac vung khac nhau biii cac m~c dich lam giau van dLt(/C xem (j'fl chua cac nguyen nlzan gay mat 6n djnh XQ lzqi.
2. Ve khia c~nh dan chu boa nen chinh tr!: Ro rang buc tranh chinh tq ben trong 0 m6i quae gia tuy con rat phuc t~p, song khuynh hu6ng CCI bfm
l~i cho thay c6 slJ dich chuy~n tu chu nghia d(>c tai trong nhieu hlnh thuc khac nhau sang m(>t Sl! c6i rna chfnh tr! 16'n han. Nhu nhilng gl da thay trong vong gan 1 th~p ky qua, ffiQt SO quoc gia vftn duy trl Cllc d~c trtrng d(>c tai. Nhung trong m(>t tuang lai c6 th~ nhln thay trtr<k nen dan chu a Dong Bac A
tiep tl;IC phai dieu chinh khong ngtrng theo cac gia tri van hoa rieng Va no se imh htrcmg trl;fc tiep toi nen dan chu 0 CHDCNDTT. Vf dy., kha nang ngtt<J'i dan trong ttrng quae gia da c6 tieng n6i l6'n han trong vi~c xac d!nh nhiing nha lanh d~o va cac chinh sckh, dftu r~ng vftn ton t~i m(>t s6 hoai nghi nhu lam the nao ho~c li?u tieng n6i d6 c6 duqc si'r dy.ng den hay khong?
Die'u do c6 nghTa nin chinh trj ben trong J CHDCND Trie'u Tien ciing
kh6ng tranh khoi nhrtng ap life cua trao luu d{m chu theo hinh thai miJi do
moi tntdng xung quanh tg.o ra, drJ.c bi¢t trong die'u ki¢n CUa S~( toan cdu lzoa
va dnh huJng (/,{ cac tien b¢ vur;t b~c cua cong ngh¢ thong tin hay Clta trao luu kinh tl thi tnrO'ng ..
3. Ve khia. c~nh an ninh va doi ngo~i: M~c du cac quan h¢ qu6c te trong khu VlJc da tr6 nen hai hoa han so v6'i bat ky m(>t thai di~m nao trong giai doC;tn tu sau 1945. Song, thlJc te buc tranh an ninh chfnh tri va quan h¢ d6i ngo~i 0 ban dao Trieu Tien da phat tri~n theo m(>t thl!c tn;mg tien thoai
luang nan trong su6t quang thai gian dai. Ly do la cac chfnh sach cua cac doi tac ben trong va ben ngoai chua dap lrng du cho vi~c tlm ra m¢t giai phap hoan toan va tri¢t d~ doi v6'i CUQC khung hoang h~t nhan 6 ban dao Tri€u Tien. Tuy nhien, nhfrng bang ch(rng gan day tu ket qua dam phan 6 ben da
mang l~i hy vqng ngay cang 16'n hon cho c¢ng dong qu6c te khi
CHDCNDTT dong y cam ket tren nguyen tac dong ci':ra chu<Jng trlnh h~t nhan gay tranh dii cua minh.
M~t khac, cling co y kien cho rang neu nhln vao cac hanh d(>ng va tuyen b6 cua cac nha Hinh d~o CHDCND Trieu Tien trong thai gian qua
duang nhu c6 th~ da lam long tin cua c(>ng dong qu6c te van con st;r nghi ho~c va chua co day du C(J so chac chan. Hon the nfra, neu nhln r(>ng ra tren to~m clmh khu vvc, nguai ta cling khong th~ tang la di nhfrng kh6 khan va nhfrng rui ro m~o hi~m van con. Vf dl;l, nhfrng tranh chap lanh th6 va cac qu6c gia bi chia cat van con hi~n hfru. St! phat tri~n cac vG khf bao gom ca
cac lo~i vu khf huy di¢t hang lo<;1t v:ln chua th~ cham dm. Va chu nghia dan
t(>c cho thay nhfrng dau hi~u hoi sinh. Chfnh vile d6, nguai ta cling c6 th~
xay dvng ve m(>t gia thiet rtmg trong m(>t chtrng mvc nao d6 neu nhfrng yeu
to khac nhau k~ tren c6 the kien t~o nen m¢t cu¢c chien tranh m6'i. D~c bi¢t,
cu(>c chien tranh v6'i d~c trung khong c6 nguai chien thang hay ke b~i tr~n.
Ket qua cua rn(>t CUQC chien tranh ki~u ay khien nguai ta c6 th€ dlJ doan ngay v€ m(>t sv t6n that ghe g6'm tren m9i phucmg di~n cho cac quoc gia trong khu vt;rc va tren the gi6'i. Chinh die'u nay buf)c cac nha liinh d(}O chinh
tri 6 m9i noi, trong d6 c6 cac nha ldnh dgo CHDCND Trilu Tien va My diin
ddn phdi chap nhtj.n mqt thf:(c tl rang gay chien khong phdi La Sf! hfa chQn toz uu trong boi· cdnh hi¢n thai. CGng theo y kien mang tinh kich blm cua m(>t so
chinh tri gia phuong Tay cho rang duang nhu hi~m ho~ gay nen st;r bAt 6n
cua khu Vl;l'C l~i c6 vela tu quae gia c6 nguy cob! Stfp d6 cao nhu CHDCND
d~ rae r6i vuqt ra khoi nhfrng duO'ng bien gi6'i rieng bi¢t. Nhung, xet tren
thl!C te, a cac cap d¢ song phUO'ng va da phuang, cac cong Ct;l doi tho~i vAn dang duqc si'r d1;1ng d~ co th~ ngan ch~ kha nang do xfiy ra. Chinh vl the
CHDCNDTI vAn dang ton t~i trong tlnh the tien thoai luang nan. Ti~n d~
cftn thiet cho vi~c duy tri h~ thong chfnh tri CUa no phai d\fa vao m(>t S\f dam bao h.i~u qua tu the gi6'i ben ngoai. Do la My. Do d6, tren mt;it tr(jn ngog,i
gzao, chinh phu CHDCNDIT_ dii dua ra s~r llfa chqn c6 tinh dqt pha trong
quan h¢ v&i My nham thong qua d6 md rqng b{tc tranh quan h¢ do'i ngog,i
etta nuitc nay. V &i Hoa Ky buqc phdi chap nhgn chien luqc vua cg,nh tranh
vt(a hqp tac v&i CHDCNDTI Ia mqt that bg,i. Nguqc lg,i, day duqc coila mqt
bu&c ngot;it va la mqt thdng lqi quan tr(/ng trong hog,t dqng do'i ngog,i cua
CHDCNDTT trong bo'i cdnh hi¢n nay.
4. Ve khia c~nh van boa- xa h()i: Ro rang, hi~n nay buc tranh v~ doi
s6ng van hoa tinh than va doi s6ng xa h<)i cua C<)ng hoa dan chu nhan dan
Tri€u Tien dang mang hai mau tuang phan: D6 Ia Sl! khoe khoang ·hoanh
trimg trong nhiing ngay ll ki ni¢m ngay sinh cua Kim Nh{lt Thanh, Kim
Chinh Nh{lt, ngay qu6c khanh v. v ... va m(Jt th1;l'C tr~ng Ia a~i da s6 nguai dan
dang trong ngn d6i vJ aai s6ng v{lt chdt cung nhu aai s6ng tinh thim.
Vi~c ban Hinh d~o nu6c nay th\IC hi~n chinh sach dong cua nh&m bao
v~ "tu tuemg chu thS" khong nhung cta kim ham kinh t~ tang tru6ng rna con tr6i bu<)c cac linh V\IC khac i:J trong "kim co". Chinh vi v~y, hi~n t~i trong khi cac nu6c a Chau A dang d~t duqc nhfrng thimh tl!u kinh t~ dang tv hao thi ph~n 16n nguoi dan nu6c nay vftn dang phai d6i m~t v6i nhfrng kho khan
v~ kinh tS rna tru6c h~t la luang th\fc. Day chinh Ia nguyen nhiin chu ydu
gay ra nhiing vein aJ xa h9i trdm trQng va keo thea n6 Ia SJ! suy giam long
au(mg ldi phat triJn kinh ti ad nang cao tlai a6ng cua nguai dan n6i chung thi kho c6 thJ luang truac aiJu gi se xay ra.
Song, d@ giai quy~t v~n dS tren dang la m<?t bai tmin phl:rc t~p d6i v6i
ban lanh d~o cua nu6c nay bai S\! mau thu~n gifra hai m~nh dS trong vi~c
tim each phat triSn d~t nu6c. Nhac l<;ti Ht:
Thu nh~t, dS cling c6 quySn lt.rc cua minh, ban Hinh d~o nu6c nay dtrng
dau la Kim Chinh Nh~t bu()c phai duy tri "tu tu6ng chu th@" va "tu tuang
tien quan". DiSu nay dbng nghia v6i vi~c nu6c nay phai ti~p tl,lc chinh sach
dong cira theo tinh thftn "tv chu" va t~p trung vao phat triSn qu6c phong. K~t
qua la nu6c nay se. khong dam h9c t~p nhfrng chinh sach phat triSn kinh t~
cua nhfrng nuac da va dang thanh cong trong vi~c phat tri@n kinh ts cung
nhu tiSp nh~n duqc nhfrng thimh qua khoa hQc, ki thu~t nh~t h1 v6n cua cac
nu6c tien ti~n. M?t khac, ch~y theo phat triSn quan sv, d?c bi~t la vii khi h~t
nhan khong nhfrng lam suy y~u them tiSm lvc kinh t~ v6n da suy ysu rna con
b! cac nu6c bao vay, c~m v~n kinh t~.
Thu hai, n~u nu6c miy chuySn sang ap dl,lllg mo hinh phat triSn theo
duang I6i kinh t~ th! truang thi ch~c ch~n se nh~n duqc trq giup cua cac
nu6c rna tru6c h~t la Han Qu6c. Ngoai ra, cac nha dftu tu nu6c ngoai cling
se vao nuac nay va nhu v~y nuac nay se giai quy~t duqc kho khan vs v6n
cling nhu ti~p thu duqc cong ngh~ tien ti~n. N~u nhu v~y thi trong khoang tir
5 d~n 10 nam sau, C(>ng hoa dan chu nhan dan TriSu Tien ch~ng nhfrng se
kh~c pht;c duqc kho khan vs luang thvc rna con thuc d~y kinh tS phat triSn kha m~nh. Tuy nhien, v6i mo hinh nay ban lanh d~o nu6c nay bu(>c phai tu
bo duemg I6i di theo "tu tuang chu thS" va "tu tuang tien quan". Nhu v~y
cling c6 nghia la phai dS cho cac llnh vvc kinh t~, xa h()i, van h6a ngh~ thu~t
v~t cb~t, tinh th~n cua ngueri dan duqc nang cao thi ban lanh dC;lo nu6c m1y
kh6 co thS can tr6 v~n dS thfmg nhflt hai miSn Nam-B~c TriSu Tien.
Nhu v~y, ban lanh dt;to C9ng hoa dan chu nhan dan TriSu Tien dang
d(rng tru&c svl17a ch<;>n v6 cung kh6 khan. Song v6i tinh hinh hi~n nay, kh6
c6 kha nang ban Hlnh dC;lo nu6c m!y lva ch<;>n theo huang thu hai trir khi co
TAl LltU THAM KHAO
Phan 1. Tieng Anh
I. The Bank of Korea.2000; 2003. Data on the North Korean Economy,
Seoul; also available from http://www.bok.org.kr
2. Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). 1977. Quarterly Economic Report:
China and North Korea, Annual Supplement, London
3. Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). 1993. Country Profile 1993/94
North Korea, South Korea, London
4. Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). 2003. Quarterly Economic Report:
North Korea, South Korea, various issues, London
5. Enery Information Administration (EIA). 2002. North Korea, Country
Analysis Brief, US Department of Energy;
(http://www .eia.doe. gov /emeu/cabs/nkorea.html
6. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). 2003. Online FAOSTAT
database; http:ljapps.fao.org
7. Korea Development Institute (KDI). 1996. Economic indicators of
North Korea; Seoul
8. Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA). 2003. Digital
KOTRA NK; http://www.kotra.or.kr
9. Ministry of Unification (MOU). 2003. North-South Trade ·and
cooperation in 2003, Government of Korea, Seoul; also available from
http:ljwww. unikorea. go.kr
10. Murrel, P. and M. Olson. 1991. "The devolution of centrally planned
economies," Journal of Comparative Econmies, 15:2, p.239-265
11. Noland, Marcus. 1995. Th.e North Korea economy, Institute for
12. Noland, Marcus. 2003. Famine and reform in North Korea, Working paper 03-5, Institute for International Economies, Washington, D.C 13. United Nations Office for the Coordiantion of Humanitarian Affairs
(OCHA).2002. Consolidated Inter-Agency Appeal 2003: Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Geneva; also available from http:Uwww.reliefweb.int/appeals/2003/files/dprk03.pdf
14. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(UNCfAD). 2002. World Investment Report 2002; Geneva; also available from http:ijwww. unctad .org/en/docsijwir2002 en .pdf
15. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(UNCfAD). 2003. Division of Investment, Technology and Enterprise Development (DITE), Online world Investment Directory, http:ijrO.unctad.org/en/subsites/dite
16. United Nations Development Program (UNDP).200l. Second Country Coopeation Framework for the DPRK, 2001-2003, DP/CCF/DRK/2. 17. The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). 2003. The World
Factbook, Washington, D.C.; also available from
http:ljwww.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/docs/faqs.html 18. Chosunibol.2003 Daily newspaper, Seoul, August 23, 2003.
Phan II. Tieng Vi¢t va tieng Nh*t
1. Matsumoto Saburo va Kawamoto Kunie: "Vi~t Nam va CHDCND Trieu Tien ·_ Hai nuac dung truac con du6ng re"; chu bien, Nxb Oshyukanshyoten; Tokyo 1995.
2. Ishizaka Koichi: "51 chuang d~ hi~u CHDCND TriSu Tien"; Nxb Akashi Shyoten; Tokyo 2006.
3 . "!midas Tin tuc-ki~n thuc"; phat himh hang nam; Nxb Shyueisha.
4. Tin tham khao d~c bi~t 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007; TTX Vi~t Nam phat
h~mh.
5. Tin tren cac trang Web nghien ctru v~ CHDCND Tri~u Tien cua Nh~t