technology and the us economy

... below the world average. Sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa and the Middle East languished far below the world average. Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union lost enormous ground during the ... Input, and Productivity. The final step in our analysis of the world growth resurgence is to describe and characterize the levels of output, input, and productivity for the world economy, the ... describe the growth of the world economy, seven economic regions, and fourteen major economies given in Table 1 during the period 1989-2003. 3 The world economy is divided among the G7 and Non-G7...

Ngày tải lên: 31/03/2014, 05:21

... little morebrightly.Theseare the employeesof the automaker beingrefreshedwithnewlight.Anothertransferofwealth hastakenplace. The autoworkersinturnmakepurchases fromotherbusiness,small and large, and the lightcontin- uestoparadethrough the tunnel. We also know that behind the walls of the tunnel there are more businesses and interconnections ... way “takingover.”There is little attention given to the more mundane and immediatethreatsto the jobmarket and the overall economy.  Perhaps the technologists just assume that once the technology ... ob- viouslydon’tcaterdirectlyto the globalmassmarket,theyarenone- thelessintegratedinto the activitythatoccursin the tunnel, and they are heavily impacted by the overall health and vitality of the mass market. THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 12 ...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... were the firstcommerciallyavailablepersonalcomputerstohavea graphical interface and a mouse. The university had pur- chaseddozensofthesenewcomputers, and studentswere now using them in their courses rather than the main- frame. The original ... are growingdark.Nowweseethatmanyof the verybrightest lightsin the tunnelfinallyfeel the impact and alsobeginto losetheirlight. The ownersof the businessesin the tunnel areseeingmuchoftheirwealthgraduallydrainaway. The ... mayhaveactuallyin- creasedforatime,astheywereabletolowertheirprices. Asaresult,theirprofits, and therefore the wealthoftheir topemployees and shareholdersincreased.Thesewere the brighterlightsin the tunnelthatinitiallybecamestronger. However,asnearlyallbusinessesin the tunnelcontinued toautomatejobs,atsomepoint the decreasein the num- berofpotentialcustomersbeganto...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... madeeven morechallengingby the factthat the objectscouldbein manypossibleorientationsorconfigurations.Consider the simplecaseofapairofsunglassessittingonatable. The sunglassesmightbeclosedwith the lensesfacingdown,or with the lensesup.Orperhaps the glassesareopen with the lenses oriented vertically. Or maybe one side of the glassesisopen and the other closed. And, ofcourse, the glassescouldberotatedinanydirection. And perhapsthey are ... securities werethensoldtobanks and financialinstitutionsallover the world,with the understandingthattheywereverylow riskinvestments. When the subprimeborrowersstarteddefaulting, the valueof the mortgage-backed securitiesplunged, and the derivativesdidnotworkasexpected.Inmanycasesitwas difficultorimpossibletocalculatetheirvalue.Inaddition, financialinstitutionshadengagedinmanyothercomplex interrelationships ... has quicklyattracted the noticeof the Securities and Exchange Commission and mayresultinnewregulation. Astheseexamplesshow,wecanexpectthat the rate ofchange and the volatilityofnearlyeverythingaround us will...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... food—all of these and countless thousandsofotherstructures and chemicalsthatcomprise ourbodies and make us functionareproteins. And they areallconstructedthroughnanotechnology. Itislikelythat the coming“nanotech”revolutionwill begin ... demand will in- crease, and the economy will therefore produce more goods and services.Inotherwords, the samenumberof workerswillbeemployedbuttheywillproducemore. 32  The ... the checkoutislealtogether. The specterofnearfullyautomatedsupermarkets and chainretailstoresiscauseforgenuineconcern.Theseare now the jobsoflastresort.Theseare the jobsthatworkers displacedfromotherindustriestakebecausethereisnoth- ingbetteravailable.Lookbackat the tableonpage59.We havealreadymentionedthat3.5millioncashiersarepoten- tiallyatrisk. The tableshowsanother4millionretailsales- persons and 2.3millionlaborers and freight,stock and ma- terialmovers,aswellas1.7millionstockclerks and order fillers.Whatnewjobscouldwepossiblyfindforallthese people? Readanyarticlein the popularpressabout the fieldof robotics and itspotentialfutureimplications, and youwill almostinvariablyfindasentencepointingoutthat“in the future,...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... bysix monthsorso.Likewise,recoveryfromarecessionisvery oftenprecededbyarisein the stockmarket. This predictive feature also applies to all the other various markets with which we interact, including the housingmarket, the jobmarket, and the massmarketfor goods ... purchasing the goods they are producing. Or eveniftheycanaffordtobuythoseproducts,theyareun- likelytodo sobecausetheyaremuchmoreinterestedin THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL ... within their capabilities, then how will they acquire the income necessary to create the demand thatinturndrivesproduction?Ifweconsider the singular- ityinthiscontext,thenisitreallysomethingthatwillnec- essarilypush us forwardexponentially?Orcoulditinac- tualityleadtorapideconomicdecline? *    * The technologistswhospeculateabout the singularitydon’tseemtoo concerned...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 21:20

... to decline.Rememberthatwearetalkinghereaboutaverage workers.Toget the graphabove,youmighttake the dis- tributionofincomesin the UnitedStates and thenelimi- nateboth the richest and the poorestpeople.Thengraph the averageincomeof the remaining“typical”people (the bulk of consumers) ... by industries,productionbecomesmoreefficient.Thisresults insomelossofjobs,butitalsoresultsinlowerpricesfor goods and services.Inotherwords,itputsmoremoneyin consumers’ pockets. These consumers then go out and buyallkindsof things, and so the resultisincreasedde- mandfor the productsproducedbyalltypesofindustries. Some ... the advancednationsof the worldrich. The reasonforthisgoesbackto the economists’ex- planationfor the “Ludditefallacy”whichwediscussedin the previous chapter. As new technology is adopted by industries,productionbecomesmoreefficient.Thisresults insomelossofjobs,butitalsoresultsinlowerpricesfor goods and services.Inotherwords,itputsmoremoneyin consumers’...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 21:20

... the name,butofwhich theywillhearagreatdealin the yearstocome—namely, technologicalunemployment.Thismeansunemploymentdueto ourdiscoveryofmeansofeconomising the useoflabour outrunning the paceatwhichwecanfindnewusesforla- bour. *   Keynesrecognizedthat,in1930,technologicalunem- ploymentwouldbeatemporaryphenomenon and that the economy wouldeventuallyabsorb the excessworkers. The mainthrustofhisessaywastoattempttolookmuchfur-   * Today,wheneconomistsdiscuss the causesof the GreatDepression, they tend tofocusalmostexclusively on the monetary policyof the FederalReserve.Whilethereislittledoublethat the overlyrestrictive policies ... Amazon ronment:includingtoxicpollution,overuseofpublicre- sources, and,  of course, the climate change effects asso- ciated with the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhousegasses. 3. Technology Productionisalsolimitedby the sophisticationof the ma- chines,processes and techniquesthatareavailable.Ihave arguedherethat,as technology advances,itwillultimately becomeindependentoflabor.Machineswillevolveto the pointwheretheyarenolongertoolsusedbyworkers,but insteadautonomousproducers. 4. ... which meansdesireforaproductorservicecombinedwith the ability and willingnesstopayforit.Nobusinesswillinvest in production unless there is either existing market de- mandor the reasonableexpectationofsuchdemandin the foreseeablefuture. The idea that...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 21:20

... wisdom isthatafencehasbeenerectedwithinoursociety.On the lush, garden side of the fence, are workers who have strongeducations and training.Thesepeoplearebeneficia- riesof the informationage.On the toxicwastelandsideof the ... Wecanexpectthattechnologicaladvancewillgiveriseto entirelynewindustriesin the future.However, the reality isthatfewifanyofthesearelikelytobelaborintensive. Bytheirverynature,thesenewindustrieswilltendtorely on information technology ... we sensethat the businessesin the tunnelarestrainingsome- what to meet this new demand, but as time passes, the cycleagainstrengthens. The collectiveintensityof the light ...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 21:20

... 1 LarryPageonAIatGoogle:Web:http://news.cnet.com/2100- 11395_3-6160372.html video:http://news.cnet.com/1606-2_3- 6160334.html?tag=mncol;txt  2 Kurtzweilhasa$20,000betwithMitchKaporthatacomputerwill pass the “TuringTest” and thusexhibithuman-likeintelligence(see lastsectionof the Appendix)by the year2029.Web: http://www.longbets.org/1 Chapter 1: The Tunnel 3 US CensusBureau,2004,web:http://www.census.gov/Press- Release/www/releases/archives/education/004214.html  4 Percentageofworld’spopulationinpoverty,see the graphbasedon WorldBankdataat http://www.globalissues.org/article/26/poverty-facts -and- stats .Myfocushereisnotonextremepoverty,whichismeasuredat 1-3dollarsperday,butonanincomelevelthatpreventspeoplefrom beingviablemassmarketconsumers. 5 DorisKearnsGoodwin,TeamofRivals: The PoliticalGeniusofAbraham Lincoln,Simon and Schuster,2005,p77. 6 “Howdeeply the curseofslavery…”,LetterfromWilliamH.Seward toAlbertH.Tracy,June25,1835.AlbertH.TracyPapers,NewYork StateLibrary,AlbanyNY(ascitedinTeamofRivals,p77). ... acentrallyplanned economy,  and perhaps most chillingly, the overthrow of govern- ments and a“dictatorshipof the proletariat.”In the wake of the collapse of communism, these ideas ... Thisbookhasprimarilybeenconcernedwith the potential economicimpactofwhatresearchersin the fieldofartifi- cialintelligencewouldcallnarrowAI.Inotherwords,ma- chines and softwarethatarecapableofsophisticatedanal- ysis,decisionmaking and reasoningwithinarelativelynar- rowfieldofapplication.Suchmachinesarenotreallyintel- ligentinanymeaningfulsense—buttheyarehighlycom- petentatperformingspecificcomplextasks and maywell exceed the capabilityofahumanworker. NarrowAIapplicationsarealreadyinwidespreaduse; expertsystemssuchas the softwarethatcanautonomous- lypilot and landairliners and manyof the advancedfea- tures built into Internet search engines and multiplayer role playing...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 21:20

... securities werethensoldtobanks and financialinstitutionsallover the world,with the understandingthattheywereverylow riskinvestments. When the subprimeborrowersstarteddefaulting, the valueof the mortgage-backed securitiesplunged, and the derivativesdidnotworkasexpected.Inmanycasesitwas difficultorimpossibletocalculatetheirvalue.Inaddition, financialinstitutionshadengagedinmanyothercomplex interrelationships ... madeeven morechallengingby the factthat the objectscouldbein manypossibleorientationsorconfigurations.Consider the simplecaseofapairofsunglassessittingonatable. The sunglassesmightbeclosedwith the lensesfacingdown,or with the lensesup.Orperhaps the glassesareopen with the lenses oriented vertically. Or maybe one side of the glassesisopen and the other closed. And, ofcourse, the glassescouldberotatedinanydirection. And perhapsthey are ... has quicklyattracted the noticeof the Securities and Exchange Commission and mayresultinnewregulation. Astheseexamplesshow,wecanexpectthat the rate ofchange and the volatilityofnearlyeverythingaround us will...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 02:20

... food—all of these and countless thousandsofotherstructures and chemicalsthatcomprise ourbodies and make us functionareproteins. And they areallconstructedthroughnanotechnology. Itislikelythat the coming“nanotech”revolutionwill begin ... the checkoutislealtogether. The specterofnearfullyautomatedsupermarkets and chainretailstoresiscauseforgenuineconcern.Theseare now the jobsoflastresort.Theseare the jobsthatworkers displacedfromotherindustriestakebecausethereisnoth- ingbetteravailable.Lookbackat the tableonpage59.We havealreadymentionedthat3.5millioncashiersarepoten- tiallyatrisk. The tableshowsanother4millionretailsales- persons and 2.3millionlaborers and freight,stock and ma- terialmovers,aswellas1.7millionstockclerks and order fillers.Whatnewjobscouldwepossiblyfindforallthese people? Readanyarticlein the popularpressabout the fieldof robotics and itspotentialfutureimplications, and youwill almostinvariablyfindasentencepointingoutthat“in the future, ... accidents; howeverovertimetheycouldevolveinto technology ca- pableofdriving the carautonomously—justasjetairliners nowroutinelyfly and landwithoutassistance. While the technology forautomated...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 02:20

... phenomenal progress,isinaracewith technology, and thatisaraceit cannotwin. IfIamevenpartlycorrectinthisprojection,then the ramificationsfor the rest of the worldwillbe enormous. In the West,welookto the impendingeconomicmightof Chinawithmixedemotions.On the onehand,weworry about ... bysix monthsorso.Likewise,recoveryfromarecessionisvery oftenprecededbyarisein the stockmarket. This predictive feature also applies to all the other various markets with which we interact, including the housingmarket, the jobmarket, and the massmarketfor goods ... machines have conti- nuously become more sophisticated, and as a result, the productivity and therefore the wages—of the average worker have increased. It stands to reason that...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 02:20

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 02:20

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 02:20

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Ngày tải lên: 22/06/2014, 18:20