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THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 72 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon chess moves, then why can it not also iterate through every known legal argument since the days when Cicero heldforthintheRomanForum?Wouldthisbea“lesser” formoflegalcreativity?Perhapsitwould.Butwouldthat mattertoourlawyer’semployer? Althoughthepracticalapplicationsofartificialintelli- gencehavesofaremphasizedbruteforcesolutions,itisby nomeanstruethatthisistheonlyapproachbeingtakenin thefield.Averyimportantareaofstudyrevolvesaround theideaofneuralnets,whichareaspecialtypeofcomputer thatisbuiltuponamodelofthehumanbrain.Neuralnets are currently being used in areas such as visual pattern recognition. In the future,we canprobablyexpect some importantadvancesinthisarea,especiallyastheengineers whodesignneuralnetswork morecloselywithscientists whoareuncoveringthesecretsofhowourbrainswork. Onethingthatprobablyjumpsoutatyouaswespeak oflawyersandradiologistsisthatthesepeoplemakealot of money. The average radiologist in the United States makesover$300,000.Infact,wecanreasonablysaythat software jobs (or knowledge worker jobs) are typically highpayingjobs.Thiscreatesaverystrongincentivefor businessestooffshoreand,whenpossible,automatethese jobs.Anotherpointwecanmakeisthatthereisreallyno relationshipbetweenhowmuchtrainingisrequiredfora humanbeing,andhowdifficultitistoautomatethejob. Tobecomealawyeroraradiologistrequiresbothcollege and graduate degrees,butthiswill nothold off automa- tion. It isa relatively simple matter to program accumu- Acceleration / 73 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon latedknowledgeintoanalgorithmorenteritintoadata- base. Forknowledgeworkers,thereisreallyadoubledose ofbadnews.Notonlyaretheirjobspotentiallyeasierto automate thanother job typesbecause no investment in mechanical equipment is required; but also, the financial incentiveforgettingridofthe jobissignificantlyhigher. Asaresult,wecanexpectthat,inthefuture,automation willfallheavilyonknowledgeworkersandinparticularon highlypaidworkers.Incaseswheretechnologyisnotyet sufficient to automate the job, offshoring is likely to be pursuedasainterimsolution. Given this reality, it may be that the simulation we performedinChapter1wasactuallysomewhatconserva- tive.Lookbackatthetablelistingtraditionaljobsonpage 59. Veryfew of thesepeopleare knowledgeworkers. In our simulation, we assumed that automation would fall evenlyonsomesignificantpercentageoftheaveragelights inthetunnel.Wenowsee,however,thatautomationmay, in fact, arrive in a relatively “top heavy” pattern.It may wellbethatagreatmanyofthebrighterlightsinourtun- nelwillbeamongthefirstimpacted. Whatdoesthismeanforabusinessthatoffersprod- ucts and services in the mass market? Clearly, it implies thatautomationmaybepoisedtosomedayeliminatenot justuntoldmillionsofyourpotentialcustomers—itislike- lytohithardatyourbestcustomers. THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 74 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon Automation, Offshoring and Small Business Wetendtothinkofautomationandoffshoringasprimari- lyimpactingjobsinlargecorporations.Afterall,ittakesa substantial investment to set up a relationship with an overseasoutsourcingfirmorbringinspecializedautoma- tionequipmentorsoftware.In thenearfuture,however, bothofthesepracticesarelikelytobecomeincreasingac- cessibleandinexpensiveforeventhesmallestbusinesses. Thereisasignificanttrendtowardbreakingjobsinto smallerpiecesorspecifictasks—whichcanthenbeeither automatedoroffshored.Thiscapabilityisincreasinglybe- ing offered to small businesses either as pre-packaged softwareorthrougheasytouseonlineinterfacesoverthe Internet.Taxpreparationisoneareawherethisapproach is already widespread. Instead of making a large invest- ment in sophisticated automation software, a small busi- nessownerormanagerwillbeabletovisitawebsiteand then rent access tothe softwareon either a per-houror per-taskbasis.Ithinkitisverypossiblethatthesamewill happen with task-specific offshoring. Competition be- tweenserviceproviderswillquicklyproducelowerprices, easiertouseonlineinterfaces,andawidervarietyofser- vices. Theresultwillberapidpenetrationofthesepractices intobusinessesofallsizes.Aswesawwiththeradiologist and the lawyer, once significant portions of jobs can be automated, the number of workers employed will imme- diatelybegintofall.TheU.S.SmallBusinessAdministra- tion estimates that businesses with fewer than 500 em- ployees have generated from 60-80 percent of all job Acceleration / 75 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon growth over the past decade. 25 As it becomes easierand cheaper for business owners to employ automation and offshoring,wemaywellfindthatthesepracticeswillbe- comeasignificantdragonAmerica’sprimaryjobcreation engine. “Hardware” Jobs and Robotics A“hardware”jobisajobthatrequiressomeinvestmentin mechanicalorrobotictechnologiesinorderforthejobto be automated. The automation of hardware jobs started long before the computer revolution. Machines used on assemblylines, farm equipment, and heavyearthmoving equipmentarealltechnologiesthathavedisplacedmillions of workers in the past. As history has shown, repetitive motion manufacturing jobs are among the easiest to au- tomate. In fact, as I mentioned, this is how the Luddite movementgotstartedbackin1811.However,themerger of mechanics and computer technology into the field of robotics will almost certainly impact an unprecedented number and types of jobs. Whether a specific hardware job isdifficultoreasytoautomate reallydepends onthe combinationofskillsandmanualdexterityrequired. Foranexampleofajobthatisverydifficulttoauto- mate, let’s consider an auto mechanic. A mechanic ob- viouslyrequiresagreatdealofhand-eyecoordination.He or she has to work on thousands of different parts in a varietyofdifferentengines,ofteninhighlyvariedstatesof repair.Inotherwords,arobotmechanicwouldfacemany visual recognition and manipulation problems similar to theoneswediscussedearlierwiththerobothousekeeper. THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 76 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon In addition, the robot mechanic would require a much higherdegreeofproblemsolvingskillthanthehousekee- per. In fact, this diagnostic skill it not something that couldbesolvedwithsoftwarealonebecauseitextendsto nearlyallthehumansenses.Amechanicmaylistentothe soundanenginemakesorevendiagnoseaproblembased onaspecificsmell. As things stand, we can say that becoming an auto mechanicisprobablyaprettysafechoiceforthetimebe- ing. But, as wesaid with the housekeeper,that doesnot imply the job will be safe forever. Advances in robotic technology will continue relentlessly until many of these problems are solved. However, an even more important factorislikelytobechangesmadetothecarsthemechan- ic is working on. Advancing technology has already im- pactedthewaymechanicswork;computerizeddiagnostic toolsarenowusedtoreadfaultcodesprovidedbymicro- processors embedded in the engine. We can expect that thistrendwillcontinue,andthat,atsomepointinthefu- ture,carsmaywellbedesignedspecificallytobeworked onbyroboticmechanics. Atruckdriverisanotherexampleofajobthatislike- lytobeprotectedforthetimebeing,but,inthelongrun, the reason will probably not be so much technology as socialacceptance.Themilitaryisalreadymakingsubstan- tialinvestmentsinautomatedtrucksthatcouldbeusedon thebattlefield.Thesecouldbecompletelyautonomous,or theymightbeprogrammedtosimplyfollowaleadtruck. Similarly,manycarmanufacturerswillsoonbedeploying collisionavoidancetechnologyincars.Thesesystemswill Acceleration / 77 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon help drivers avoid mistakes that might lead to accidents; howeverovertimetheycouldevolveintotechnologyca- pableofdrivingthecarautonomously—justasjetairliners nowroutinelyflyandlandwithoutassistance. While the technology forautomated carsand trucks may arrive, it is somewhat difficult to imagine thatmost peoplewouldbeeagertosharetheroadwith50-tondri- verless trucks. A second important issue would likely be thepoweroftheTeamstersunion.Onceagain,however,I have to givemystandard disclaimer: this doesnot mean truckdrivingjobswillalwaysbeprotected. The job types that are likely to be threatened fairly soon byadvancesinroboticsare the jobs thatfit some- wherebetweentheautomechanicandtherepetitivemo- tion assembly line worker. As an example, consider the shelfstockerina supermarket or chain retailstore. This jobrequiresmoreflexibilitythanworkingonanassembly line,butstillfallsfarshortofwhattheautomechanicfac- es. Thelayoutofasupermarketisstandardizedandcould easilybeprogrammedintoacomputer.Theaislesarewide andthefloorsaresmooth;idealterritoryforanindustrial robot.Everyitemhasaspecificplaceontheshelves.Bar codesmakeitasimplemattertoidentifyitems,andspecial location markers could be placed on the shelves: a shelf stocking robot faces few of the visual recognition issues that challenged our housekeeping or auto mechanic ro- bots.Designinga robot that couldmoveinventoryfrom the stock room and place it on shelves is certainly well withintherealmofpossibilityinthenottoodistantfuture. THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 78 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon Needless to say, if a robot can be designed to stock shelves, then it can also be made to unload trucks and movematerialofalltypes. Skepticalthatrobotsmightsomedaybesteppinginto thesejobs?Considerthatasfarbackas2005,CNETNews Blogpublishedanarticleentitled“WhysoNervousabout robots, Wal-Mart?” 26 Thearticlepointedout thatreports hadsurfacedaboutWal-Marttestinginventory-takingro- bots.Thesewouldberobotsprogrammedtonavigatethe aislesatnightandautomaticallytakeacompletestorein- ventory. When the CNET reporter contacted Wal-Mart management, he received anunusually abrupt denialthat Wal-Martwasconsideringusingrobotsinanyway. WecantakeWal-Mart’smanagementatitswordand assumethatit,infact,hasnoplanstouserobots.Inthe long run, however, that won’t matter. At some point, if oneofWal-Mart’scompetitorstriestogainanadvantage by employing robots, then Wal-Mart and every other competingbusinesswillreallyhavenochoicebuttofol- lowsuit.ThepointofthisisnottovilifyWal-Martorany otherbusinessthatmightsomedaychoosetoemployau- tomation.Wehavetoacknowledgethat,inafreemarket economy,everybusinesshastorespondtoitscompetitive environment and employ the best available technologies andprocesses.Ifitdoesnotdoso,itwillnotsurvive. Historyhasshownthatjobautomationveryoftenin- volves pushing a significant portion of the job onto the customer.Automationinthecustomerserviceareaisreal- lyself-service.ThishasbeenthecasewithATMs,automated checkoutaislesandevenself-servegaspumps.In there- Acceleration / 79 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon cently opened Future Store 27 near Düsseldorf, Germany, in-storeretailsalesandcustomerassistanceisbeingauto- matedviaacell-phoneinterface.Shoppersareabletoget realtimeassistance,whileshopping,throughtheirmobile phones.Theycanalsoscanbarcodesastheyshopand,in thenearfuture,willbeabletopayfortheirpurchasesdi- rectly through their phones—presumably avoiding the checkoutislealtogether. Thespecterofnearfullyautomatedsupermarketsand chainretailstoresiscauseforgenuineconcern.Theseare nowthejobsoflastresort.Thesearethejobsthatworkers displacedfromotherindustriestakebecausethereisnoth- ingbetteravailable.Lookbackatthetableonpage59.We havealreadymentionedthat3.5millioncashiersarepoten- tiallyatrisk.Thetableshowsanother4millionretailsales- personsand2.3millionlaborersandfreight,stockandma- terialmovers,aswellas1.7millionstockclerksandorder fillers.Whatnewjobscouldwepossiblyfindforallthese people? Readanyarticleinthepopularpressaboutthefieldof roboticsanditspotentialfutureimplications,andyouwill almostinvariablyfindasentencepointingoutthat“inthe future, robots will be used to perform tasks which are dangerous for people, or jobs which people don’t really want.” That is surely true, but it implies the somewhat wistful assumptionthatrobots won’t beused injobs that peopledowant.Thatisobviouslyasillyassumption.Ro- bots,andotherformsofautomation,willbeusedinstead THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 80 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon ofpeopleassoonitbecomescosteffectiveandprofitable forbusinessestodoso. * “Interface” Jobs AthirdtypeofjobiswhatIcallan“interface”job.The people who hold these jobs, toalarge extent, fill inthe crackswhichcurrentlyexist betweenvariousinformation formats and technologies. As an example, consider what happenswhenyouapplyforahomemortgageloan.Ifyou workwithanindependentmortgageagent,heorshewill probablygiveyouapaperapplicationtofillout.Next,you willneedtoretrieveandmakecopiesofyoursupporting documentation: pay stubs, tax returns, bank statements, insurancedocuments,etc. Allofthis documentationwillbeonpaperoritwill befaxedtoyou.Apropertyappraisalwillbedone,andthe reportwillbeforwardedtotheloanagent.Oncetheloan agentcollectseverythingtogether,heorshewillprobably faxit all to thebank, wherealoanofficer will review it. Ultimately,numberssuchasyoursalary,creditrating,and the equity to loan ratio will be plugged into a computer programandtheloanwilleitherbeapprovedordenied. Clearly, the bulk of the labor associated with this process is in collecting, copying, collating and faxing in- formation.Theintellectualportionofthejob—eitherap- provingordenyingtheloan—isprobablyalreadyessential- lyhandledbyacomputer.Throughouttheeconomy,there * Formoreonroboticsanditspotentialimpactonemploymentand on society, see Marshall Brain’s “Robotic Nation” blog at http://roboticnation.blogspot.com. Acceleration / 81 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon areprobablythousandsofjobsforclerksandofficework- ersthatcontinuetoexistbecauseofthisclunkyinterface betweenwhatexistsonpaperandwhatneedstobeina computer. Clearly,wecannotexpectthatthisstateofaffairswill continueforever.Financialstatementsarealreadyavailable online. Standard data formats are making it increasingly easy for computers to talk directly to one another. The “XML” standard is a very popular format that is already widely used to move data between different businesses overtheInternet.UsingXML,thecomputersatamanu- facturingcompanycantalkdirectlytothecomputersbe- longingtothecompany’ssuppliers.Thecontinuingdrive towardpaperlessdocumentsandseamlesscommunication islikelytoeliminatemanyofthesehumaninterfacejobsin thecomingyears. The Next “Killer App” Since the beginnings of the personal computer industry, computerhardwaresaleshaveoftenbeendrivenbyapar- ticularsoftwareapplicationsocompellingthatithasmoti- vatedcustomerstopurchasethemachinerequiredtorun it.WhentheAppleIIwasintroducedin1977,it wasin- itiallyasuccesswithinarelativelysmallgroupofcomputer hobbyists. It wasn’t until the first electronic spreadsheet, VisiCalc,wasdevelopedthattheAppleIIbegantogener- ate wider interest. VisiCalc was the catalyst that helped transformtheAppleIIfromaninterestingtoyintoatrue businessmachine.Likewise,whentheIBMPCwasintro- duced,Lotus1-2-3fulfilledthe“killerapp”role.Later,it [...]... of automation will, of course, be in addition to that of offshoring.) Many of these people will be highly educated professionals who had previously assumed that they were, because of their skills and advanced educations, beneficiaries ofthe trend toward an increasingly technological and globalized world.* Military Robotics One ofthe biggest investors in robotics technology is the Pentagon In his... factory called the ribosome, the recipe captured in the bar code is again read by other nano-machines that build protein molecules It is these protein molecules that are the true building blocks of life Our muscle tissue, the hemoglobin in our red blood cells, the insulin that we need to process sugar, the enzymes that digest our food—all of these and countless thousands of other structures and chemicals... reverse-engineer it In time, they might begin to tinker with the spacecraft and make it operate in new and different ways Eventually, they would understand thetechnology at a fundamental level, and they would begin using it to build new machines of their own This will quite probably be the path along which nanotechnology will evolve.30 Nanotechnology is currently in its infancy, and it is likely that it... Nonetheless, the field offers enormous promise and may someday touch nearly every aspect of our lives Amazing new treatments and cures in the field of medicine, the possibility of generating virtually limitless energy from the sun, even faster and more powerful computers, unimaginable newpossibilities in manufacturing—all these things and more may come from nanotechnology But as we contemplate these... possibilities, there is another question we need to ask: will nanotechnology create jobs? Will our displaced cashiers and shelfstockers and office clerks find employment in the nanotechnology industry? A simple application of common sense should give us the answer We speak here of manipulating matter at the molecular level The level of precision required is obviously beyond any human being, and nanotechnology... developed nations and to the developing ones The consumers that drive our markets are virtually all people who either have a job or depend on someone who has a job When a substantial fraction of these people are no longer employed, where will market demand come from? The world economy is a closed system; there are no export markets to prop up the world economy in the way that the Southern slave economy was... In fact, by the time econometrics shows clear evidence of what is happening, it will be very late in the game Economists looking at past data are always looking back at the flat (left) part ofthe geometrically increasing technology line Prior to the point where the impact becomes obvious, there is really no way past data can show them the steep vertical part ofthe line that lies ahead The Luddite... relationship between the level of education and training required for a person to do a job and whether or not that job can be automated While doctors are probably not in danger of losing their jobs in the foreseeable future, the same cannot be said for many thousands of knowledge workers and middle managers in the private sector It’s important to note that, while humanoid interfaces like Microsoft’s virtual... really happening may be that they are simply too buried in their data In recent decades, the field of economics has been increasingly taken over by the branch ofthe field known as econometrics Econometrics is essentially a merger of economics and statistics Econometricians engage in the task of analyzing reams of past economic data They apply advanced statistical techniques and create complex computer... Amazon THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 86 ly autonomous role in warfare in the air, on the ground and at sea All of this makes for a rather harsh contrast between the foresight shown by the military as compared with civilian economists and analysts Consider the uneven terrain and the highly unpredictable and dynamic situations that would be faced by battlefield robots Now compare that with the environment inside . food—all of these and countless thousands of otherstructures and chemicalsthatcomprise ourbodies and make usfunctionareproteins. And they areallconstructedthroughnanotechnology. Itislikelythat the coming“nanotech”revolutionwill begin. collating and faxing in- formation. The intellectualportion of the job—eitherap- provingordenying the loan—isprobablyalreadyessential- lyhandledbyacomputer.Throughout the economy, there * Formoreonrobotics and itspotentialimpactonemployment and on. cohesive thoughtorplanningisbeinggivento the disruptiveimpact thatthesetechnologieswillcertainlyhavein the commer- cialsector and on the overall economy. Robotics and Offshoring Aswe’veshown,“software”jobsarehighlysubjecttooff- shoring and potentiallyalsotoautomation.Those“Hard- ware”