Mối quan hệ giữa phát triển tài chính, nhà đầu tư định chế và tăng trưởng kinh tế

BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO NGÂN HÀNG NHÀ NƯỚC VIỆT NAM TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC NGÂN HÀNG TP.HỒ CHÍ MINH oOo PHẠM VIỆT TRINH MỐI QUAN HỆ GIỮA PHÁT TRIỂN TÀI CHÍNH, NHÀ ĐẦU TƯ ĐỊNH CHẾ VÀ TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ KHOÁ LUẬN TỐT NGHIỆP CHUYÊN NGÀNH: TÀI CHÍNH – NGÂN HÀNG MÃ SỐ: 7340201 THÀNH PHỐ HỒ CHÍ MINH, 2021 BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO NGÂN HÀNG NHÀ NƯỚC VIỆT NAM TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC NGÂN HÀNG TP.HỒ CHÍ MINH oOo PHẠM VIỆT TRINH MỐI QUAN HỆ GIỮA PHÁT TRIỂN TÀI CHÍNH, NHÀ ĐẦU TƯ ĐỊNH CHẾ VÀ TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ KHỐ LUẬN TỐT NGHIỆP CHUN NGÀNH: TÀI CHÍNH – NGÂN HÀNG MÃ SỐ: 7340201 GIẢNG VIÊN HƯỚNG DẪN TH.S TRẦN MINH TÂM THÀNH PHỐ HỒ CHÍ MINH, 2021 i ABSTRACT The paper analyzes the effects of financial development and institutional investors on economic growth The research was conducted in 64 countries divided into groups: developing countries and developed countries The research method used in the paper is the threshold regression method with data collected from World Bank and Federal Research Economic Data for the period 2007 - 2016 The results of the study prove that there exists non-linear relationship between financial development and economic growth Specifically, financial development will synchronize with economic growth for financial development values above the threshold In addition, developing countries will have lower threshold values than developed countries Furthermore, the study also shows the importance of institutional investors The development of institutional investors will help the capital in the market to be allocated more appropriately and effectively, thereby promoting economic growth The empirical research results also prove that institutional investors' assets are correlated with economic growth The begining of thesis is a brief introduction to the topic Reasons for choosing research topics The research objective is to find a solution for the economy in realworld problems revolving around the above-mentioned objects In the past, there have been many studies on economic development, institutional investors, or financial development and financial growth Particularly, this essay will combine all above concepts to consider and evaluate the impact of each other Economic growth is one of the important goals that all countries in the world are aiming for Economic growth depends on many factors from macro, micro to political and cultural factors The development of the financial system is also an important factor affecting economic growth The relationship between financial development and economic growth has been studied in many previous documents However, the results of these papers are still controversial and the role of institutional investors in the financial system has not been studied in depth In chapter 2, the author summarizes some previous studies on three main contents: financial development, economic growth and institutional investors In order to ii understand the origin, meaning and function of the above terms From there, there is a multidimensional perspective to evaluate the link between the three factors above Based on lessons learned from previously published studies presented in chapter 2, chapter will present specific information related to research models Using and processing together with studies suitable to the specific characteristics of each model and collected research data to test research hypotheses initially set out in Chapter The data in the study are arranged according to the Panel data structure and are unbalanced panel data The author uses the variables of GDP growth per capita (%); bank credit to the private sector (% GDP); domestic credit to the private sector (% of GDP); initial income (calculated as% of GDP in 2010); inflation (calculated by CPI); total investment (% GDP); Government spending (% GDP); total exports and imports (% of GDP); population growth (%); total assets of insurance company (% GDP); total assets of mutual funds (% GDP); Retirement fund assets (% GDP) Data is collected from the World Bank (WorldBank) and Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) with high reliability Based on the listed methods and running the model, analyze the data and evaluate the model results Chapter will be the basis for giving answers to the questions in Chapter From there, making the conclusion of the whole research in Chapter Specifically, the author tested the correlation between the variables to consider the relationship between the variables in the study Looking at the correlation test results, it can be seen that the correlation coefficient between the independent variables in the model is not too large, except for the correlation between the DCPS variable and the variables IC, MF, PF Therefore, it is necessary to test the multicollinearity using the VIF method The paper measures financial development based on two variables, bank credit to the private sector and domestic credit to the private sector combined with the threshold regression method of institutional investors IC / MF / PF The model results show a non-linear relationship between financial development and economic growth However, the impact and statistical significance of each variable are different In addition, the threshold value between developing countries and developed countries is also markedly different iii The paper uses data from 64 countries around the world, including 33 developing countries and 31 developed countries during the period 2007-2016 to study the impact of financial development on growth economic growth and emphasis on the influence of institutional investors Table data threshold regression method is used for the paper to examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth The results of the study show that there exists a non-linear relationship between financial development and economic growth Specifically, financial development will be synonymous with economic growth when financial development values are above the threshold and inversely or not impacted when financial development values are below the threshold In addition, developing countries will have lower threshold values for developed countries In addition, the study also shows the importance of institutional investors The development of institutional investors will help the capital in the market to be distributed more reasonably and effectively, thereby promoting the development of the economy In addition, institutional investors also help better share risks in the market, typically the role of insurance companies The empirical research results also show that institutional investors 'assets are similar to economic growth, with the exception of insurance companies' assets in developing countries According to the results of the study, financial development will play a very important role in economic growth goals A development finance system will help the economy grow higher based on foundations First, financial development will help increase the rate of savings, thereby promoting investment to increase Second, financial development with the participation of institutional investors will help the saving capital to be invested more efficiently thanks to the advantages of size as well as information Third, reducing transaction costs will promote financial services to develop, higher returns to investors, and attract participation in investment channels for both individual investors and investors institutional investor In addition, financial development will help share market risks through the development of insurance companies and derivative markets Therefore, investing in new technologies will also be more encouraged because the risks are not too great Variables such as government spending, total capital, inflation, and trade openness iv will affect economic growth in many different directions, but there are some limitations as follows: - First, the study period is too short, only 10 years from 2007 to 2016 as sample data limit - Second, the possibility of doing decimal data is still incomplete and only studying types of institutional investors is not enough to represent, the feedback is made by the influence of consultants economic growth Given the limitations that the document encounters, the author proposes this resource development guide will look like the following: First is an extensive sample study, namely a time study and a numerical study of the country Second, increase the number of types of institutional investors as well as add test variables that are likely to affect the relationship between financial development and economic growth Keyword: Financial growth, economic growth, institutional investor v LỜI CAM ĐOAN Khóa luận này là công trình nghiên cứu riêng của tác giả, kết quả nghiên cứu là trung thực, đó không có các nội dung đã được công bố trước đây hoặc các nội dung người khác thực hiện ngoại trừ các trích dẫn được dẫn nguồn đầy đủ khóa luận Tác giả Phạm Việt Trinh vi LỜI CẢM ƠN Lời đầu tiên, em xin được gửi lời cảm ơn đến tập thể các thầy/cô giáo giảng dạy tại khoa Tài Chính chương trình đào tạo Chất lượng cao, Đại học Ngân Hàng TP.HCM Dưới sự dạy dỗ, dẫn dắt của các thầy cô, em cảm thấy mình đã có được một hành trang kiến thức lẫn kỹ năng đầy đủ để chuẩn bị bước vào một môi trường mới Đặc biệt hơn, em xin được gửi lời cảm ơn sâu sắc đến thầy Th.S Trần Minh Tâm, người đã hướng dẫn em hoàn thành khóa luận tốt nghiệp Cảm ơn thầy đã định hướng, hướng dẫn và giúp đỡ em nhiệt tình suốt thời gian qua Dưới sự hướng dẫn của thầy, em đã hoàn thành được bài khóa luận tốt nghiệp tương đối đầy đủ và hoàn chỉnh Tuy nhiên, quá trình thực hiện đề tài khó tránh khỏi những hạn chế và thiếu sót ngoài ý muốn Mong thầy/cô thông cảm và bỏ qua cho em Em xin chân thành cảm ơn Em, Phạm Việt Trinh vii MỤC LỤC MỤC LỤC vii DANH MỤC BẢNG ix DANH MỤC CÁC TỪ VIẾT TẮT x CHƯƠNG : TỔNG QUAN ĐỀ TÀI 1.1 Lý chọn đề tài 1.2 Mục tiêu nghiên cứu 1.3 Phương pháp nghiên cứu 1.4 Phạm vi và đối tượng nghiên cứu 1.5 Kết quả của bài nghiên cứu 1.6 Cấu trúc bài nghiên cứu CHƯƠNG 2: CƠ SỞ LÝ THUYẾT VÀ TỔNG QUAN VỀ CÁC NGHIÊN CỨU TRƯỚC ĐÂY 2.1 Cơ sở lý thuyết 2.1.1 Lý thuyết về phát triển tài chính 2.1.2 Đo lường phát triển tài chính 2.1.3 Lý thuyết về tăng trưởng kinh tế 2.2 Vai trò của các nhà đầu tư định chế 2.2.1 Vai trò của công ty bảo hiểm 10 2.2.2 Vai trị của quỹ tương hỡ 10 2.2.3 Vai trò của quỹ hưu trí 11 2.3 Tổng quan các nghiên cứu thực nghiệm trước đây 11 CHƯƠNG : PHƯƠNG PHÁP NGHIÊN CỨU 18 3.1 Mô tả dữ liệu 18 3.2 Đo lường biến 19 viii 3.2.1 Biến phụ thuộc 19 3.2.2 Biến nghiên cứu 19 3.2.3 Biến kiểm soát 21 3.3 Mô hình nghiên cứu 23 3.4 Phương pháp nghiên cứu 25 3.4.1 Các kiểm định mô hình 25 3.4.2 Cách xác định ngưỡng 25 CHƯƠNG 4: PHÂN TÍCH DỮ LIỆU VÀ THẢO LUẬN KẾT QUẢ 26 4.1 Thống kê mô tả 26 4.2 Kết quả 31 4.2.1 Kiểm định tương quan 31 4.2.2 Kiểm định đa cộng tuyến 33 4.2.3 Phân tích hồi quy 33 CHƯƠNG 5: KẾT LUẬN 38 5.1 Hàm ý chính sách 38 5.2 Hạn chế và hướng tiếp theo cho bài nghiên cứu 39 TÀI LIỆU THAM KHẢO 40 PHỤ LỤC 44 47 MF PF GVE 48 INFL GCF TRADE 49 PPT Hồi quy ngưỡng đối với nhà đầu tư định chế theo CB VÀ DCPS Các quốc gia phát triển CB, IC 50 CB, MF 51 CB, PF 52 DCPS, IC 53 DCPS, MF 54 DCPS, PF 55 4.2 Các quốc gia phát triển CB, IC 56 CB, MF 57 CB, PF 58 DCPS, IC 59 DCPS, MF 60 DCPS, PF 61 ... DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO NGÂN HÀNG NHÀ NƯỚC VIỆT NAM TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC NGÂN HÀNG TP.HỒ CHÍ MINH oOo PHẠM VIỆT TRINH MỐI QUAN HỆ GIỮA PHÁT TRIỂN TÀI CHÍNH, NHÀ ĐẦU TƯ ĐỊNH CHẾ VÀ TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ KHOÁ... chọn đề tài Tăng trưởng kinh tế là một những mục tiêu quan trọng mà các quốc gia trên thế giới đều hướng đến Tăng trưởng kinh tế phụ thuộc vào nhiều yếu tố tư? ? vĩ mô,... 2.1.3 Lý thuyết tăng trưởng kinh tế Tăng trưởng kinh tế là sự gia tăng về sản lượng của một quốc gia hoặc sản lượng bình quân đầu người của một nền kinh tế Theo Soubbotina

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