Khi thi trQdng ngan ban van chiu nhieu sQc ep vi md va hieu qua cua chinh sach tien te la an sd dd'i vdi thi trQdng trung, dai han; nhQ vay, kha nang chd't ldi ngan ban cua NDT de ba[r]
(1)DIEN DAN TAI CHINH I I I
TH! TRl/OiNG CHLfNG KHOAN THANG 11/2010
vA KICH BAN THANG 12/2010
ThS N g u y i n Thi N g o c Tri Sd Giao dich H a n g h o a T r i e u P h o n g
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Thi trvToTng chiifng k h o a n Vi^t N a m da k e t thiic t h a n g 11 ma k h o n g co bie'n d p n g Idn ve chi so' hai s a n d e u g i a m n h e
Trai ngQOc xu hQdng di ngang va linh xinh hai t h a n g trQdc, thi trQdng chQng khoan (TTCK) t h a n g 11 bien dgng m a n h va day bat ngd hai chi sd VN-Index va HNX-Index dao dgng bien rdng 419 - 458 va 97 - 111 diem Trong bdi canh lam phat, lai suat va ty gia bao trum toan thi trQdng, TTCK da giam manh nQa dau t h a n g 11, cham day vao giQa t h a n g va bat ngd t a n g diem tuan giao dich eud'i t h a n g 11
Tuan giao dich cudi t h a n g 11 kiem chQng lai mdt lan nQa md'i quan he phQc t a p giQa tinh hinh kinh t e vi md hien tai va d i l n bien thi trQdng VN-Index va HNX-Index t a n g ba't ngd
trong bdi canh m a t bang l a i suat t a n g cao, CPI t h a n g 11 gan dat mQc dinh n a m 2010 va ty gia dat mdc ky luc mdi Cd hai hQdng giai thich nhQ sau:
Thi trQdng da phan anh ta't ca thdng tin tieu cQc cac dgt suy giam trQdc, nhieu ma cd phie'u giam sau tdi mQc dii hap dan de giai ngan sau tinh den cac ye'u td rui ro tren Gia cd phieu qua "re" va de'n mQc du "an toan" la hai n h a n to chinh giai thich cho hQdng tiep can
Thi trQdng dang phan anh ky vgng cua nha dau tQ (NDT) vao tQOng lai cua kinh te vi md Viet Nam, cac yeu td' tieu cQc nha't cd the ndi da dQgc thiet lap (CPI cao, lai sua't tang manh, vu viec Vinashin ) Kha nang tdt len cua kinh te VI md hoan toan chiem Qu the so vdi kha nang thi trQdng xa'u hon NhQ vay, viec chi sd tang
nganhang
(2)Mi
m DIEN DAN TAI CHINHdiem the hien ky vgng cua NDT vao thi trQdng trung va dai h a n , di cung vdi bQc t r a n h s a n g sua hon cua nen kinh te Viet Nam t h d i gian tdi
Trong t h a n g 11, nhdm ma "blue chips" khdng chi ddng vai trd quan trgng viec n a n g dd thi trQdng h a n g loat "pennies" giam sau ma cdn tao cu huych dang ke, keo theo sau la h a n g loat cac ma "pennies" t a n g t r a n a n tQOng
Didn bie'n cua thi trQdng t h a n g 11 p h a n nao the hien dien bie'n t a m ly cua NDT, tQ t r a n g t h a i chan n a n , thd sang t r a n g t h a i tich cQc nhQng khdng t r a n h khdi hoai nghi thi trQdng bat ngd t a n g diem a'n tQgng vao cudi thang Thanh khoan d mQc tha'p cho tha'y t a m ly NDT t h a n g 11 nhin chung v l n r a t t h a n trgng
Trong 11 t h a n g dau nam, cd tdng cgng 255 doanh nghiep len san (bao gdm ca cac trQdng hop chuyen san)
Trong dd, cd 80 doanh nghiep dang ky giao dich tai Upcom, 99 doanh nghiep niem yet t a i HNX va 76 niem yet tai HOSE
VN-Index gidm 1,01 diem
Ke't thuc 22 phien giao dich, VN-Index t r a i qua 10 phien t a n g diem va 12 phien giam diem, chdt t h a n g d mQc 451,59 diem, giam nhe 1,01 diem (tQOng dQOng 0,22%)
Tuy nhien, tinh t h a n h khoan t r e n san HOSE lai t a n g so vdi t h a n g 10 vdi 750.689.655 don vi chQng khoan dQOc chuyen nhQOng, cung vdi gia tri giao dich la 16.792,71 ty ddng, t a n g 14% ve khd'i iQgng va t a n g xap xi 5% ve gia tri giao dich
Mac du, khdng t a n g diem neu tinh chung ca t h a n g nhQng VN-Index k e t thuc t h a n g 11 bang chudi phien t a n g diem lien tiep de dQa Vn-Index tQ mdc 426 len 451,59 diem
Trong t h a n g 11, cd 190 ma giam va 74 m a tang Tang m a n h nha't la DSN cua Cdng vien nQdc Dam Sen (21,7%) cdn giam m a n h nha't la DVD (-38,5%)
Trong so' giam gia, cd 42 ma giam t r e n 10%, dd cd 10 ma giam t r e n 20% Phia t a n g gia chi cd ma t a n g t r e n 10% Phia t a n g gia cd 14 ma t a n g t r e n 10%
nganhang
So 57'Thang 12/2010MCK DSN DLG VIC
5 ma Gia 25.200 30.000 81.000
CK tang gia nhieu nhat Thay ddi % 4.500 21,74 5.200 20,97 13.500 20,00 SEC 29.100 4.600 18,78 SBS 28.100 4.300 18,07 5 ma CK giam gii nhieu nhat MCK Gia Thayddi % DVD 49.200 -30.800 -38,50 KTB 22.200 -10.200 -31,48 VNI 12.400 -5.100 -29,14 s m 18.500 -7.000 -27,45 D2D 35.700 -10.900 -23,39
5 ma CK cd KLGD nhien nbk
MCK Kli6i lugng STB 39.586.083
SSI 33.521.740
OGC 21.485.960 VNE 20.990.290 SBT 18.204.540
Gia 14.700 24.700 23.800 11.200 12.100
Thay doi -1.300
1.500 200 -200
Khoi lui^ng 578.470 4.174.310 4.679.776 1.864.460 971.980
Khoi luong 1.303.670 3.628.210 296.950 2.928.450
535.910
%
5,47 4,63 2,97 2,90 2,52
HNX-Index gidm 4,43 diem
Tren san HNX, chi sd HNX-Index giam sau hon m a t di 4,43 diem (3,93%) va ket thuc thang 10 d mQc 108,43 diem sau phien tang va 13 phien giam diem, dd cd tdi phien HNX-Index dQng dQdi ngQdng 100 diem
Tuy nhien, tinh khoan dQOc cai thien dang ke vdi 649.860.323 cd phie'u chuyen nhQgng t h a n h cdng, tQOng Qng gia tri giao dich la 12.565,446 ty ddng, tang 28,27% ve khd'i iQgng va tang 7% ve gia tri giao dich
Binh quan mdi phien giao dich thang 11 tren san ghi nhan 29,53 trieu cd phie'u dQgc chuyen nhQgng va 525,70 trieu ddng dQgc giai ngan
(3)DIEN DAN TAi CHINH
ill
(CTCP) Lilama Thi nghiem Co dien (15/11); PEL cua CTCP Bat ddng san Tai chinh Dau Viet Nam (17/11); HBB cua Ngan hang Habubank (23/11); PRC cua CTCP Portserco va CMS cua CTCP Cavico Xay dQng Nhan iQc va Dich vu (29/11)
SQ cd mat ciia ma cd phie'u tren gdp phan nang tdng sd ma cd phieu niem yet tai HNX len 354 vien vdi tdng khdi iQgng niem yet dat tren 5.915 trieu cd phieu, tQOng dQOng tdng gia tri niem yet theo menh gia dat 59.155 ty ddng Trong thang 11, tdng cdng cd cd 121 ma, dd cd 26 ma tang tren 10%; 221 ma giam t r e n 10%, dd cd 40 ma giam tren 20%
HTB cua CTCP Xay DQng Huy Thang quan quan tang gia cua thang 10, tie'p tuc d i n dau top tang gia cua thang 11 Sau tang 42,5% thang 10 len 20.800 ddng, cd phieu 66,3% len 34.600 ddng So vdi gia binh quan phien chao san (19/10) la 14.600 ddng, gia HTB da tang tdi 137%
Phia giam gia, dSn dau la ARM cua CTCP Xua't nhap khau Hang khdng vdi mQc giam 37,7%, tQ 23.100 xud'ng 14.400 ddng
Sau chao san, ARM da tang len mQc cao nha't la 24.000 ddng vao 27/10 rdi giam xudng mQc tha'p nha't la 12.600 ddng vao 22/11
j MCK '
H T B
' VE9^
L C D P F L C V T
5 ma CK tfing gid nhi^u nhSt
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347600" 28.700 17.200 13.200 24.000
Thay d6i
13.800 8.300 4.600 2.700 4.600
%
66,35 40,69 37,00 :267o6 " "2377T
5 mil CK gidm gid nhieu nil
^' MCK ARM
C92
N P S Q T C S
1
M C KPVX i i KLS
" SHN
V C G S C R
Gia Thay doi 14.400 -S.700 24.700 -14.200 "
11.600 -5.700 26.300 -12.000 9.700 -3.900
%
-37,66 -36,50 -32,95 -31,33 -28.68 5 ma CK c6 KLGD nhieu nh
Kh6i !u(?ng Gia
66.249.300 20.900
43.'896.700 13.100
327990.700 19.000 22.333.400 25.000 21.951.600 26.000
Khoi lugrng 352.800 5.737.800
1.169.800 3.134.050 3.134.050
it !
Khoi [ui^ng 64.600 916.000 " " " 115.800
84.500
79.300 :
it
"hay doi % 500 10.19 700 6.75 400 5.08 1.900 3.44
-200 3.38
T o n g hcfp g i a o d i c h n h a d a u tvt nxidc n g o a i (NDTNN) t r o n g t h a n g 11
T h a n g 11: khd'i ngoai mua r d n g gan 1.380 ty ddng Trong t h a n g 11, NDTNN day m a n h b a n t r e n ca hai s a n nhQng, xu hQdng mua r d n g v a n dQgc tri
Tqi HOSE: t i n h r i e n g giao dich k h d p l e n h ,
iQgng mua vao t a n g 10 trieu dOn vi so vdi t h a n g trQdc, d a t 87,7 trieu dOn vi Tuy vay, gia tri mua vao lai giam hon ty xud'ng 2.883 ty ddng
Trong dd, iQOng b a n r a t a n g 15,36 trieu len 54,8 trieu don vi, gia t r i b a n r a t a n g 295 ty len 1.615 ty ddng
Tinh chung t h a n g 11, khd'i ngoai mua r d n g 33,6 trieu don vi, tQOng dQOng 1.369 ty ddng, giam 164 ty ddng so vdi t h a n g 10
Tqi HNX: khd'i ngoai chi mua r d n g hon 9,3
ty ddng
PVX la ma dQgc mua r d n g nhieu nha't t a i HNX vdi 2,58 trieu don vi, tQong dQOng 53 ty ddng
nganhang
(4)Ill
DIEN DAN TAI CHINHPhia ban rdng cd KDC (0,86 trieu don vi - 43,4 ty), SCR (1,98 trieu don vi - 45,5 ty), PVI (2,3 trieu don vi - 38 ty), HSG (2 trieu don vi - 32 ty)
M a CK KL m u a ronK j MCK j KL b d n r o n g
Top mua, bdn rbng HSX DP.M
STB HAG VSH SSI PVD OGC FPT
4.374.790 4.149.448 2.97.5 610 2.861.347 2.786.946 2.405.560 2-354.610 2.ft«).390
HSG ITA KDC H \ ' G BCI PRUBFI
SBT HDC
2.056.190 862.S60 819.300 607.460 398.000 221.490 192.870 188.640
M B CK K L m u a r b n g | MCK | K L b d n r n g Top mua, ban rong HNX P\'X
VCG KLS VND CVT \7^C VGS NET
2.582.100 1.020.700 637.700 310.800 290.900 210,900 17,1.SO0 165.200
PVI SHS PVS BVS SHB SCR S99 WSS
2.300.300 1.600.000 861.000 826.200 492.900 469.500 127.600 72.200
K h u y e n nghi k i c h b a n t h a n g 12
Tam ly NDT se cd dac diem sau thang 12: Tam ly than trgng van chiem Qu the thi trQdng tang diem hoan canh tin tQc vi md hau bet kem tich cQc
Can nhac chdt ldi ngan ban: Lai sua't ngan hang tang cao thi quye't dinh sQ dung dich vu tai chinh de dau CO hay dau tQ dai ban di kem vdi chi phi thQc te va chi phi cO hdi cao hon Dieu se ban che ddng tien vao thi trQdng va ke ca ddng tien chay manh vao thi trQdng cung se dQgc can nhac de chdt ldi ngan ban, bao toan ngudn vd'n Xu hQdng tam ly cua NDT ca nhan ludn di kem vdi kha nang thi trQdng bien ddng va dieu chinh manh
Thang 12 cd the ndi la thang quan trgng n h a t ciia cac don vi dau tQ tai chinh td chQc, day la thang ke't thuc nam, anh hQdng ldn tdi ke't qua boat ddng cua cac quy dau tQ, cdng ty chQng khoan, ngan hang Do dd, thang 12 cd the ddn nhan them cac yeu to' tac ddng tdi xu hQdng thi trQdng:
Thanh khoan: n a m tai chinh den gan, nhdm NDT td chQc cd xu hQdng tai co ca'u danh muc dau tQ manh me hon de phuc vu muc dich bao cao cudi nam Do dd, khoan cd co hgi dQgc cai thien thang 12 Vdi tinh hinh thi trQdng nhQ hien nay, khoan dang quan trgng hon rat nhieu so vdi viec chi so chQng khoan tang hay giam Ne'u khoan tri tren 2.000 ty ddng/phien, thi xu hQdng ben vQng hon ciia thi trQdng cd kha nang dQgc xac lap
Gia cd phieu: nhieu nam trd lai day, mdt nhQng yeu td dQgc nhac tdi thQdng xuyen la viec cac cdng ty tai chinh "dd" gia tri tai san rdng (NAV) hai tuan cudi thang 12 de "lam dep" bao cao tai chinh Neu xu hQdng tie'p tuc, thi thi trQdng cd the cd nhieu bat ngd t h a n g cuoi cung eua n a m 2010
Tdm lai, hai phien giao dich "thang hoa" cua eud'i thang 11 khdng cd nghia da du de khang dinh thi trQdng bat dau xac lap mgt xu hQdng tang ben vQng Khi thi trQdng ngan ban van chiu nhieu sQc ep vi md va hieu qua cua chinh sach tien te la an sd dd'i vdi thi trQdng trung, dai han; nhQ vay, kha nang chd't ldi ngan ban cua NDT de bao toan ngudn vdn van cao.Dac biet ddng tien dau co dang manh nha trd lai thi trQdng thi bien ddng cua chi so chQng khoan se bi meo md kha nhieu
Thi trQdng t h a n g 12 tiem an nhilu co hdi hon so vdi thang 10 va 11, nhQng lai di kem vdi nhQng rui ro mdi Do dd, NDT nen tie'p can chien iQOc chd't ldi ngan ban cac chu ky dieu chinh ciia thi trQdng giai doan hien