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ttong bdi canh ttong nudc va qudc te cd nhilu biln ddng phirc tap, khu vyc kinh tl cd vdn diu tu tryc tiep nudc ngoai da vugt qua khd khan, thach thuc va dat dugc ket qua tdtca ve vd[r]
(1)^if-Jtf
MitngXudn Tdn Mdo NH JNG VAN DE KINH TE VT M j
Kinh te vi mo nam 2010: Mot so
van fle
can
quan tam
Thanh An *
Dien bie'n kinh te, tai chinh the gidi co tac dong khong nho tai dien bien kinh te vi mo nuac
Nam 2010, kinh te the giai sau han mot nam lam vao suy thodi da phyc hoi tro Igi, nhien, toe hoi phyc khong dong deu giCra cdc khu vi/c, Igm phdtvd gid cd hang hoa co xu hi/ang tdng, thj trirang tdi chfnh the giai bien dong khd phi/c tgp Tinh hinh kinh te the gidi ndm 2010 dd c6 tdc dgng vu'a thudn Igi, vu'a kho khdn do! vol kinh te vT mo ni/dc Trong ni/dc, kinh te vTmo co nhCrng chuyen bien tfch ci/c vdi tdng tri/dng kinh te d mi/c cao, nhgp sieu kiem sodt dual ngi/ang 20% to'ng kim nggch xud't khd'u, thdm hyt ngdn sdeh gidm so vdi ndm 2009, cdn cdn todn quoc te cdi thien Tuy nhien, van khd nhieu vd'n de cdn phdi bdn de tu dd cd nhOfng gidi phdp dong bg cho sy o'n djnh kinh te vT mo ndm 2011 vd nhiJng ndm tie'p theo
Nhin toan canh, kinh te the gidi nam 2010 cd thi dugc md ta nhu sau:
Thie nhdt, tang trudng kinh te
toan cau d muc 4,4% Kinh te My dy kiln tang 2,3% nhung that nghiep van d miic cao 9,6%; kinh te Nhat Ban tang 3% chii yeu nhd vao xuit khiu; Eurozone tac ddng cua cudc khung hoang ng cdng ehi tang trudng khoang 1,4% nhd vao tano trudng xuat khau cua Dire; chau A din diu da phuc hdi kinh tl
the gidi nhd thuong mai toan cau hdi phuc va eac gdi kich cau ndi dia manh me, dat khoang 7,9%, rieng Trung Qudc dat tang trudng khoang 10%; tang trudng ciia khu vyc My Latinh dy kien 5,2% nhd xuat khau gia tang, thi trudng viec lam hdi phuc nhanh va nhu eau tai thi ttudng My phuc hdi trd lai Cac nha xuat khau nhu Argentina, Peru, Brazil da cd nhiing edng dac biet va dy kien se cd miic tang trudng GDP lin lugt 8,3%, 7,7% va 7,5%
Thii hai lam phat bat dau chdu sue
ep tang gia ca the gidi tang kinh te toan eau thoat klidi suy thoai Gia dau tang khoang 4,5%, gia gao tang 11,3%, thep tang 25,7%, phan bdn tang 1,6%, chat deo tang 27,4% Hau bet eac Ngan hang Tmng uong (NHTU) tren the gidi van thyc hien chinh sach tien te ndi long nhung mdt sd NHTU da tang lai suat de kiem che lam phat, cd Tmng Qudc
HaNoi
(2)Mitng Xudn Tdn Mdo
1^ N H Q N G VAN DE KINH T^ VT MO f l
Thieba, khung hoang ng cdng xay
ra tai Hy Lap tham hut ngan sach len tdi 12,7%, cao gap lan miic tran EU cho phep, da lan rgng sang Italy, Diic, Tay Ban Nha rdi Bd Dao Nha Trong nhiing cudi nam, Ireland dang la tam diem tham hut ngan sach d miie dang bao dgng Trong vdng hai thang 11 va 12, Qudc gia lien tuc bi cac td chiic danh gia tii Fitch, Moody's den S&P 500 bae tin nhiem dii dugc EU va IMF ciiu trg
Thir tie, cudc khung hoang ng chau
Au khien ddng tien chung khu vyc lao dao so vdi ddla My Tinh den thang 5/2010, Euro rod xudng miic gia thap nhat sudt nam so vdd USD vi eac nha dau tu lo sg se cd them nhieu qudc gia di vao vet xe dd ciia Hy Lap
Thiendm, neu nhu dau
nam mdi, mdi ounce vang chi toong duong 1.096 USD thi den 6/12, ky lue mdi nhat ttong nam da dua gia len dinh cao cua mgi thdi dai tai 1.427 USD mdi ounce (each day 10 nam, mdi ounce vang ehi d miic 270 USD)
Thii sdu, th thang cd nguy ca
xay mdt cudc chien tien te d cap toan cau, cac nudc thi gia ddng tien de canh ttanh khdng lanh manh Trong dd, cudc chien giiia Trung Qudc va My la trung tam cua sy chii y Bat chap ldi keu ggi manh me tii My va cdng ddng qudc te, Trung Qudc chi tang gia ddng Nhan dan te mdt each cam chimg va mang tinh hinh thirc Trong nam 2010, da cd it nhat lan (vao thang va thang 9), My de dga se triing phat Trung Qudc neu nudc khdng nang gia ddng ndi te Van dl chiln tranh tien te tiep tuc lam ndng Hdi nghi Thugng dinh kinh tl G20 nhdm hgp tai Han Qudc hdi thang 11 vira rdi Ngay ca ngudi diing diu IMF ciing canh bao neu cac nudc tilp toe dung ty gia de giai quyet khd khan kinh te, the gidi se din liic ddi dien
vdd mdt cudc chien tiln te thyc sy Nhung dien biln kinh tl, tai chinh the gidi neu tren tae dgng khdng nhd tod dien bien kinh tl vT md nudc Ve mat thuan Igd, kinh tl toan cau phuc hdi tao thuan lgi cho Viet Nam gia tang xuat khau, vdn kha dung loan cau tang, diu to qudc tl trd lai binh thudng, tham ehi c6 thuan lgi vdi Viet Nam mdt sd nudc khu vyc thyc hien chinh sach kilm soat vdn Ve mat tieu eye, gia ca hang hda the gidd tang cao ciing tac ddng tod mue gia nude md eua nen kinh te ciia ta qua Idn, gia vang tang ky luc tac ddng tdi gia vang nude, theo dd tae ddng den thi trudng ngoai hdi va ty gia Ve tdng quan, kinh te vT md nam 2010 dan xen nhiing mang tdi sang, tirng Unh vyc deu cd mat thuan Igd nhung ciing cdn cd nhiing ban che, khd khan tiem an, can phai dugc nhin nhan de cd nhiing thay ddi quyet sach, hudng tdi sy dn dinh kinh te vT md nam 2011 va nhiing nam tiep theo Cu the:
- Kinh te tang truong qua cdc
quy, cd nam dgt miic klid cao so vdi cdc nttffc tren the gidi vd khu vuc, nhff vay, miic tang trudng kinh te binh quan giai dogn 2006 - 2010 dat khodng 7%/ndm, GDP binh quan Mu nguoi 1.160 USD dua Viet Nam trd thdnh nu&c bdt ddu cd thu nhgp trung binh; kinh ti tang trudng trd lgi giiip ty le that nghiep gidm nhe so vdi ndm 2009: Mae dii
kinh te the gidi phuc hdi cham nhung kinh te nudc ta da sdm khdi tinh trang suy giam va cd muc tang trudng kha cao; San xuit kinh doanh phat trien manh; Nganh edng nghiep vugt qua thien tai, bao lut, dich benh, bao dam phat trien dn dinh, an ninh luong thyc dugc dam bao; Gia tri san xuat cdng nghiep dat tde tang trudng cao, xap xi thod ky phat trien dn dinh; Cac boat dgng thirong mai, dich vu cd muc tang trudng cao hon nam trudc; Tang trudng kinh te sau
khi cham lai n^ng nam 2009 da hdi phuc \di tdc kha cao (quy I dat muc tang 5,83% quy II dat muc 6.5%, qu5' m dat 7.16% quy IV dat 7,34%), ca nam dat miic tang trudng 6,7%, dd, khu vyc ndng nghiep tang 2,6%, cdng nghiep va xay dyng tang 7,6%, dich vu tang 7,5% Miic tang trudng cao hon muc tieu 6,5% eua Qudc hgi dl ra, gdp phan dua tang trudng GDP binh quan giai doan nam 2006 - 2010 dat khoang 7%/nam; GDP binh quan dau ngudi nam 2010 dat khoang 1.160 USD Kinh te tang trudng ttd lai gdp phan lam cho ty le that nghiep giam So vdi nam 2009, ty le that nghiep ehung la 2,88%, giam 0,02%, ttong dd ty le that nghiep d thi la 4,43%, giam 0,17%, ty le thit nghiep d ndng thdn la 2,27%, tang 0,02% Mac dii tang trudng kinh le cao nliung dya nhieu vao dong lye tii xuat khau nen khd tri tang trudng ben viing kinh te the gidi cd nhieu bien ddng; viec tang trudng kinh te cao nhd ty le dau tu so vdi GDP d mire tren 40%GDP cho thay tang trudng dya vao chieu rdng, chua cai thien dugc chat lugng tang trudng, can chu ddng chuyen hudng sang tang trudng nhd cau ndi dia va nang cao hieu qua dau to nhiing nam tiep theo
- KItu vuc kinh te doi ngogi cdsif cdi thien mgnh me cua xuat khau, nhung nhgp sieu van dmuc cao xet ve gid tri tuyet doi, chua the gidm nhanh vd luon thudng true tdc dgng tdi thi trudng ngogi hoi, dgc biet dong von nudc ngodi tdng cMm lgi:
Nam 2010, xuat nhap khau cua Viet Nam chiu tac ddng bdi dien biln bit lgi cua kinh te the gidi nhu tinh trang lam phat gia tang d nhieu qudc gia, viec dieu chinh ty gia ddng ndi te so vdi ddng USD d mdt sd nin kinh tl, gia USD bien ddng se khiln cho xu thi dy trir vang va cac hang hda thilt ylu nhu dau thd, kim loai quy tilp tuc gia tang va gay ap lye tang gia
(3)I MitngXudn Tdn Mdo
N H Q N G VAN DE KINH TE VT MO ^
hang hda nudc Mac dii vay, xuat khiu nam 2010 vin hdi phuc nhanh hon dykiln, dat 71,6 ty USD, tang 25,5% so vdi nam 2009, cao hon lan mire muc tieu dl tii dau nam la 6% Tang trudng xuit khau nhd ca vao gia tang va lugng tang (gia xuat khau binh quan tang manh so ciing ky da giiip kim ngach xuat khau tang khoang 3,4 ty USD; yeu td tang lugng giiip cho kim ngach xuit khau tang 10,3 ty USD) Kim ngach nhap khau nam 2010 dat 84 ty USD, tang 20,1% so vdi nam 2009 Ciing nhu xuat khau, gia nhap khau binh quan tang so vdi cung ky la mdt nhiing nguyen nhan lam tang kim ngach nhap khau nam Ddng gdp vao miic tang 12,7 ty USD kim ngach nhap khau 2010 so vdd nam 2009, ed tdi 5,3 ty USD tang yeu td gia binh quan tang, 7,4 ty USD tang tang ve lugng nhap khau Nhap sieu ca nam 2010 dat 12,4 ty USD, trudc dd, ke hoach dua tir dau nam la khoang 14 ti USD, bang 17,3% tdng kim ngach xuat khau, thap hon so vdi muc 22,5% ciia nam 2009 Nhap sieu dat miic dudi 20% kim ngach xuat khau nhung sd toyet ddi van d muc cao, dd la chua loai trii da quy, kim loai quy xuat khau Nhap sieu keo dai nhieu nam da lam cho can can vang lai tham hut trien mien, ed nam len tdi 10%GDP, la muc qua Idn, dan den ap lye phai sii dung ngudn dy trii ngoai hdi de can thiep ludng vdn nudc ngoai vao Viet Nam cham lai, ng qudc gia cd xu hudng gia tang va gay sue ep giam gia ddng ndi te Tham hut can can vang lai Idn ciing vdi tham hut ngan sach cao, ng cdng cd xu hudng tang nhanh se la nhung trd ngai Idn cho sy phat trien kinh tl ttong nhiing nam sau, ddi hdi phai chii trgng cac giai phap giam dugc tinh ttang tham hut kep
- Thu hiit von ddu tunude ngodi
da tdng trd lgi, so von cam ket cua cdc nhd tdi trg tiep tuc tang,
nhien ca cau dau tu true tiep van con vdn di phdi bdn: Nam 2010,
ttong bdi canh ttong nudc va qudc te cd nhilu biln ddng phirc tap, khu vyc kinh tl cd vdn diu tu tryc tiep nudc ngoai da vugt qua khd khan, thach thuc va dat dugc ket qua tdtca ve vdn diu tu dang ky, vdn thyc hien va san xuat, kinh doanh ciia doanh nghiep, tilp tue cd nhiing ddng gdp quan trgng vao ket qua ehung cua nen kinh te Viet Nam nam 2010 Theo Bd Ke hoach va Dau tu, vdn FDI chiem 25,8% tdng vdn dau to toan xa hdi, cao ban nam 2009 (nam 2009 chiem 25,5%) Trong nam 2010, Viet Nam da thu hiit dugc 18,59 ty USD vdn dau tu nudc ngoai dang ky (gdm ca cap mdi va tang vdn), bang 82,2% so vdi cung ky 2009 Tuy nhien, sd vdn thyc hien la 11 ty USD, tang 11% so vdi cung ky nam 2009 Dang chu y, tdng gia tri xuat khau ciia khdi doanh nghiep FDI dat 38,8 ty USD, tang 27,8% so vdd nam 2009 va chiem 53,1% so vdd tdng kim ngach xuat khau cua ca nudc; tdng kim ngach nhap khau dat 36,4 ty USD, tang 39% so vdi nam 2009 va chiem 42,8% tdng gia tri xuat khau cua ca nudc Ben canh ddng vdn FDI, ngudn ODA ciing la mdt ngudn vdn quan trgng, gdp phan tang dau to Theo Bd Ke hoach va Dau to, tdng gia tri giai ngan vdn ODA nam 2010 ude dat 3,5 ty USD, dat xlp xi 144,2% so vdd ke hoach ca nam Trong dd, vdn vay khoang 3,2 ty USD, vdn vien trg khdng hoan lai khoang 300 trieu USD So vdd miic giai ngan ODA nam 2009, giai ngan theo cac ehuong trinh, dy an nam 2010 tang 30%, dat 2,94 ty USD Tai Hdi nghi Nhdm to van eac nha tai trg cho Viet Nam nam 2010, cgng ddng cac nha tai trg da cam ket tai trg cho Viet Nam 7,88 ty USD, dd tai trg song phuong tii 24 ddi tae ed tdng tri gia 3,28 ty USD, tai trg tir ddi tac td chiic la g'an 4,6 ty USD Cd thi ndi dau to nudc ngoai, nhit la c^u to
tryc tilp da va dang chiem ty trgng cang Idn va trd bd phan khdng the thieu dugc cua nen kinh te nudc ta Tuy nhien, sd dy an dau to vao cdng nghe cao cdn it va mdi d giai doan dau khod ddng, phan Idn cac dy an FDI cdng nghiep che bien deu lam gia cdng gian don Trong may nam gan day, sd dy an dau to vao bat ddng san va nhung nganh tieu hao nhieu nang lugng tang len Bod vay, ddng lye de tang ngoai te, gdp phan can bang, hoae thang du can can thuang mai toong lai tir khu vyc diu to tryc tiep cdn yeu
- Thu chi ngdn sdeh deu tdng,
mdc dit bgi chi ngdn sdeh gidm so vdi muc tieu Quoc hgi de nhung dung Chinh phu vd ngcongmgc dU van nam gidi hgn an todn nhung dd cd xu hudng gia tdng, tiem dn rui ro neu su dung von khong hieu qud: Nam 2010, ude tinh
thu ngan sach nha nudc ca nam dat khoang 66.600 ty ddng vugt vugt 14,4% so vdi dy toan, tang 19,4% so vdd nam 2009 Chi ngan sach nha nudc cho an sinh xa hdi udc khoang 72.120 ty ddng, tang gan 5% so vdi nam 2009 Ngan sach nha nudc da ehi cho cdng tac phdng chdng, khac phyc hau qua thien tai, dich benh nam 2010 khoang 5.400 ty ddng Ngoai ra, da xuat dy trii qudc gia cap khdng thu tien tren 81.400 tan gao de cihi trg nhan dan viing thieu ddi giap hat va bi thiet hai thien tai Ddi vdi giai ngan vdn diu to xay dyng CO ban udc thyc hi.an ca nam dat khoang 92-95% dy toan; vdn ttai phieu Chinh phu dat 100% dy toan Theo Bd Tai chinh, bdi chi ngan sach nam 2010 dy kien giam 0,4 diem % GDP xudng cdn 5,8% GDP (dy toan la 6,2% GDP) Tuy nhien, ng cdng va ng nudc ngoai lai tang ban so vdi nam 2009 Tinh din hit 31/12/2010, du ng Chinh phu bing 44,3% GDP, du ng qudc gia bang 42,2%, GDP du ng cdng bang 56,6% GDP (nam
(4)MitngXudn Tdn Mdo
^ NHQNG VAN D E KINH TE VT MO 2009, du ng Chinh phu la 41,9%: du ng cdng la 52,6% GDP)
Theo danh gia ciia tac gia Vii Quang Viet, ng nudc ngoai cua Viet Nam da tang tii miic 16 ty USD len miic 371>' USD chi vdng nam qua, tdc tang ng nudc ngoai da tang len43% nam 2009 so \di muc khoang 20%/nam ciia nhiing nam trudc Bdi vay, chinh sach tai khda va chinh sach quan ly ng nudc ngoai va ng cdng can hudng tdi giam tham hut ngan sach, nang cao hieu qua diu to edng de giam bdt sy le thudc vao vay ng nudc ngoai, ddng thdi giam bdt sy lan at diu to eiia khu vuc to nhan
- Lam phdt tdng quy I
nhung quy II dd dugc kiem sodt d miic thdp vd on dinh, nhien tuthang lai tdng nhanh vd cd ndm dd quay trdlqi miic hai so 11,75%, vugt xa so vdi chi tieu dugc Quoc hgi de hoi ddu ndm gdn 5%: Dien bien lam phat cho thay
sau hai thang dau nam tang cao (thang 1: 1,36%; thing 2: 1,96%), thang giam xudng cdn 0,75% va dn dinh d miic rat thap khoang dudi 0,3%/thang khoang tuthang cho din thang (thang 4: 0,14%; thang 5: 0,27%; thang 6:0,22%; thang 7: 0,06%; thing 8:0,23%) Tir thing lam phit tang manh (thing 9: i.'31%; thing 10:1.05%; thing 11: 1,86%; thing 12:1.98%) Miie tang 1,98% thing 12/2010 la muc tang cao nhit nam, dd miic tang gia d khu vyc hang an va dich vu an udng, tang 3,31% (rieng luong thyc tang tdi 4,67%) CQng thing nay, gii nha d va vat lieu xay dyng ciing tang manh tdi 2,53% Tinh chung ca nam 2010 giio due la nhdm tang gii manh nhat ttong rd hang hda tinh CPI (gan 20%) Tiep dd la hang an (16,18%) va nha d - vat lieu xay dyng (15.747f) Buu chinh viln thdng la nhdm nhit giam gii vdi miic giam gin 6% ttong nam 2010 Phin tich cic nguyen nhan gay
\ t
lam phit cao ttong nim 2010, ed nhieu dinh gii, tham chi cd nhimg dinh gii trii chieu Cd y kiln cho rang lam phat 11,75% nam cd mdt phin bi tic ddng tir yeu td khich quan (khoang 4,5% la tang gii luong thyc vi mien Tmng bi bao lut va khoang % gii xang diu thi gidi tang len), va lam phat ca ban ciia Viet Nam khoang 7,5% la Ngan hang Nha nudc bang chinh sach tiln te tao Nhan dinh cua Tdng cue Thdng ke budi hgp bio tdng ket nam thi cho rang ttong ty le lam phit 11,75% nam 2010 ciia Viet Nam, yeu td tien te ddng gdp tdi 4,65% va cae yeu td khic gdp 7,1% Mgt sd y kien cho rang lam phit la chinh sach tai khda, diu to va yeu kem ndi tai ciia nen kinh te (vin de tham hut ngan sach, dau tu cao va kem hieu qua ) Chang ban, tic gia Dd Thien Anh Tuin cho rang cai gdc cua lam phit ciing nhu nhiing bit dn kinh te vT md d Viet Nam thdi gian qua chu yeu nam d chinh sich tai khda, dd la tinh trang thim hut ngan sich va viec sii dung vdn khdng hieu qua Cdn theo ket luin cua cudc hgp Hdi ddng to vin chinh sich tai chinh tien te qudc gia thing 12 via qua cho rang den quy III/2010, ve co ban, chiing ta da kiem che dugc lam phat nhung sang quy IV/2010, lam phit tang cao ngoai kha nang dy doin Nguyen nhin chinh la xuat phit tir nhirng nhin td khich quan nhu sy bit dn kinh te, gii ea the gidd va mgt sd yeu td chii quan ndi tai cua nen kinh te Trong nam 2010, gia ca mgt sd hang hda thiet yeu the gidi tiep tuc tang eao (gii diu thd va gii xang, gas tang, sat thep, nguyen vat heu nhap khau tang kinh te the gidi phyc hdi, gia ca nguyen vkt lieu tang tten 10%), gia vang bien ddng manh Yeu td lam lam phit tang cao hoan toan khdng sai lim ttong dieu hanh vT md ndi chung Chinh sach tien te ttong nam qua khdng phai la nhan td lam cho lam phat tang cao
Day cung la nhan dinh cua Thong dde NHNN Nguyin Van Giau yeu td tiln te thi nam nao ciing ddng gdp vao viec tang chi sd CPI Tuy nhien, viec lam phit tang cao nhu nam khdng phai xuat phat tir viec dieu hanh chinh sach tiln te Qua cic y kiln neu tten, cd thi thay ring lam phat d Viet Nam nhieu yeu td, tir gia ea hang hda thi gidi tang cao, gii ttong nudc tang thien tai, lii lut, chinh sich tiln te, tai khda, tham hut ngin sach, diu to cao va khdng hieu qua, ngoai cdn yeu td tam ly ciing tic ddng khdng nhd tdi lam phit Cho nen, d l chdng lam phit, mdt minh chinh sich tien te khdng the lam dugc ma cin mdt sy ddng bd tir eac chinh sich khac
Tdm lai, phan tich thyc ttang kinh te vT md nam 2010 cho thay be ndi kinh te vT md cd nhieu chuyen bien tich eye, nhat la da vyc day nhanh chdng sau chiu tie ddng cua cudc khiing hoang tai chinh va suy thoii kinh te toan ciu, toy nhien van cdn mdt sd van de can dugc tap tmng giai quyet cho nam 2011 va nhung nam tiep theo Chi muc tieu kinh te vT md dugc xic dinh rd rang, chinh sich phai ddng bd va hd ttg thi dn dinh kinh te vT md va tri tang trudng ben virng mdi cd the dat dugc ttong dai ban.a
TAX LIEU THAM KHAO: - Bio cio eua Thu todng Chinh phu tai Ky hgp Qudc hdi thing
10/2010;
- Bio cio cua Bd Ke hoach va diu tu ve tinh hinh kinh te xa hgi nam 2010 va ke hoach nam 2011; - Cac bao cio cua cic td chuc qudc te tai Hdi nghi cic nha tai trg thing 12/2010 tai Ha Ngi;
- Cic bai phin tich, dinh gii cua cac chuyen gia kinh tl, cac nha chuc trich tren Vneeonomy, Thai bio kinh te Viet Nam; Thdi bao kinh te Sai gdn; Thdi bao Ngin hang