TRlTCKVG H4I HQC AN GIANG KHOA KINH TE - QUAN TRIKINH DOANH LE MY HIEN Xay dung k hoach cho vay nong nghiep nam 2013 cho Ngan h^ig TMCP Phat triln Me Kong Chi nhanh Long Xuyen Chuyen ng^nh: KINH TE ©OINGOAI Gi^ng vien hu^^ng din: TH.S HUYNH PHU THINH An Giang, thang nam 2013 CONG TRINH BlTOC HOAN THANH TAI KHOA KINH TE - QUAN TRI KINH DOANH DAI HOC AN GIANG Nguai hudng dan: Th.s Huynh Phii Thinh (Ho ten, hoc ham, hoc vi va chix ky) Ngiroi chlm, nhanxet 1: (Ho ten, hoc ham, hoc vi va chtt ky) Nguai cham, nhanxet 2: (Ho ten, hoc ham, hoc vi va chtr kj') Khoa Kinh ti - Quan trj Kinh doanh, thang nam 2013 NHAN XET CUA GVHD VV V v v V A A Ngay thang nam Giang vien huang dan TLsHuyn [ NHAN XET CUA CO QUAN THlTC TAP f I V V V v V Ngay thang nam -Vi II LCJfl CAM ON Trong sudt thai gian thuc him khoa ludn tot nghiep "xay dung ke hoach cho vay nong nghiep nam 2013 cho MDB chi nhanh Long Xuyen" da tao cho tdi mot ca hoi van dung nhung ly thuyet vd nhung Men thuc, hieu biet cua ban than vdo thuc tien Di hodn thdnh khoa ludn thi Men thuc vd su no luc cua ban than Id deu tdt yeu Tuy nhien, neu khdng cdsu chi dan ve each thuc, phuang phdp tien hank vd su ho trq nhiet tinh cua nhung ngudi xung quanh thi chdc hdn toi se gap nhieu khd khan, khdng the hodn thdnh tot khoa ludn VI vqy, toi mudn gin Idi cam^on din trucmg dqi hoc An Giang, todn the thdy cd khoa Kinh te - QTKD da truyen dqt cho tdi nhung Men thuc thqt quy bdu Dae biet, tdi chdn thdnh cam an thdy Huynh Phu Thinh, ngudi da dinh hudng vd true tiep hudng dan cho tdi thuc Men hodn thdnh tdt khoa ludn cua mink Ddng thai, tdi mudn gui Idi cam an din tdt cd anh/chi MDB Long Xuyen da nhiet tinh giup do, hudng dan vd cung cap cho tdi nhung thong tin can thiet, tdi mudn gui Idi cam an chdn thdnh cua minh din anh Nguyen Van Khoa Nghi Id ngudi true tiep hudng dan, chi day cho tdi nhung kinh nghiem thuc te viec thdm dinh tin dung ndng nghiep, tao dieu Men thudn Ipi cho tdi thu thdp day dit du lieu di hodn thdnh tdt khoa ludn Ben cqnh do, tdi mudn gui Idi cam an den ba me, ngudi da tao dieu Men cho tdi duqc cap sdeh den trudng vd duqc thuc Men udc ma cua minh Cudi cung, tdi xin gui Idi chuc sue khde den ba me, quy thdy cd khoa kinh ti - QTKD, thdy Huynh Phu Thinh, tdt cd ede anh/chi MDB Long Xuyen Chuc quy thdy cd cung ede anh/chi cdng tdc tdi vd mdi ngdy se Id mot thdnh cdng nidi An Giang, 27 thang nam 2013 LSMyHi&i TOM TAT Be tai "xay dung kg hoach cho vay nong nghigp nam 2013 cho MDB chi nhanh Long Xuyen" vdi muc tieu: (1) phan tfch moi trudng hoat dpng ITnh vuc cho vay nong nghiep cua MDB Long Xuyen nh3m xac dinh digm manh, diem yeu cua ngan hang, dong thfri nhan dien nhttng ca hoi va nguy ca tir moi trudng ben ngoai tac dong den hoat dong cho vay nong nghiep ciia ngan hang; (2)xay dung kg hoach cho-vay nong nghiep nam 2013 cho MDB Long Xuyen Bg dat dupe cac muc tieu tren, dg tai thuc hien hai budc nghien ciiu: nghien cuu so bo va nghien cuu chinh thdc Nghien ciiu so bo la nghien cuu dinh tinh nhim thu thap cac thong tin so lucre ve dg tai, cac digm manh, digm ygu, cu hoi, de doa cua ngan hang thong qua cac du ligu thii cap va so cap Nghien cuu chinh thuc nham de ke hoach cho vay nong nghiep nam 2013 cho ngan hang thong qua cac du lieu so cap thu thap tu cac cuoc phong van chuygn sau vdi Ban lanh dao, truong phong kinh doanh va cac nhan vien ngan hang Phan tich moi truong bgn ngoai cho ta thay duqc nhung co hoi va de doa cua chi nhanh Cac co hoi la: (1) quy ho^ch, dg an xay dung nong nghigp, n6ng thon moi d cac dia ban Cho Mdi, Long Xuyen, Thoai Son, Cd Do va Vihh Thanh; (2) nhu cau vay von nong nghiep cua cac ho dan chua khai thac hgt; (3) hoat dpng tin dung d Cd Do va Vinh Thanh r^t it, chi cd AGR va MDB LX De doa doi vdi Chi nhanh la: (1) ap lire canh tranh gay gat; (2) chinh sach kiem chg tang truong tin dung 12%; (3) ngudi dan khong cd kha nang toan ngu bi mat miia, mat gia; ygu cau chat luong dich vu cang cao cua khach hang Phan tich moi truong noi bp cua ngdn hang cho ta th^y dupe nhung digm manh va diem ygu ciia chi nhdnh Trong diem manh gom: (1) uy tin thucng hieu cang vung manh; (2) dpi ngu nhfin vign cd trinh dp chuygn mdn, nghiep vu tot, am hieu thi trudng; (3) quy trinh tham dinh dupe xem xet chat che Digm yeu gom: (1) dia ban hoat dong kha rpng, khd khan viec cham sdc khach hang dia ban xa va mat nhigu thdi gian; (2) thdi gian giai ngan cham; (3)hieu qua lam viec hoat dpng marketing, tim kigm khach hang chua cao; (4) lai sudt cho vay van cao Dua trgn ket qua hoat dpng kinh doanh nam 2012, doanh sd cho vay nong nghigp nam 2012,'xu hudng co cau hong nghiep nam 2013 cua tinh An Giang va Can Tho, muc tigu cho vay nong nghiep 2013 cua MDB Long Xuygn dupe dg nhu sau: -Doanh sd cho vay nong nghiep: tang 28% so vdi nam 2012 (198.000 trigu ddng) -Pham vi hoat dpng: md rpng it nhSt xa tai dia ban dang hoat dpng -Lpi nhuan: chiem 30% thu nhap -Ty lg no xiu nong nghiep giam: 0,3 8% B3ng nhung cong cu phan tich, ma tran SWOT dupe hlnh thanh, cac chign lupc tham nhap thi trudng va phat trien thi trudng dupe dg xult dupe thuc hign thong qua chien lucre khac biet hoa vdi cac ke hoach ban hang, marketing, nhan sir va tai chinh -Ke hoach ban hang: dua tren ket qua hoat dong nam 2012 va tinh hinh vT mo, vi mo, chi nhanh de chi tieu kinh doanh cho vay ndng nghiep nam 2013 la 198.000 trieu ddng, duqc phan theo vi trf dia ly (5 dia ban dang hoat dong) va phan theo thdi han cho vay (ngan han; trung va dai han) Ke hoach duqc thuc hien thong qua cac bien phap day manh hoat dong marketing, don gian cac thd tuc gily tor, giai quylt hhanh chdng thai gian hoan tat ho sa nhdm dem lai ngudn von kip thcri cho khach.hang, ben canh ket hop vdi sir nhiet tinh, than thien va sir am hilu thi truang cua dpi ngu nhan vien tin dung -Ke hoach marketing: bao gom ke hoach nho: (1) ke hoach san pham: dua cac bi^n phap nhdm tang tinh tien ich cho san phim: dan gian hoa thu tuc, giay ta, nit n^Sn thai gian giM ngan, thai nhan vien phuc vu nhiet tinh, vui ve; (2) ke hoach phan ph6i: dly manh tim ki^m khach hang, md rqng dia ban hoat-dqng it nhdt xa; (3) ke hoach chieu thi: quang cao, marketing true tiep, khuyen mai; (4) ke hoach gia: chucrng trinh ho trq lai sufit -Kg hoach nh&n su: xay dimg va phat tri^n ngu6n nhan lire, dao tao va nang cao trinh dp nghiep vu cho can bp nljan vien, ngoai thuc hien cac chinh sach luang thudng cho can bp nhan vi8n nhlm khich le tinh th^n nhan vien, tao sir gin bo giua ngan hang va nhan vidn -Ke hoach tai chinh: tong hop tSt ca cac chi phi va thu nhap tir cac ke hoach truac Theo thi thu nhap nam 2013 la 22.393,80 tripu d6ngt6ng chi phi thuc hien la 15.340,08 trieu dong va lqi nhuan du ki^n Chi nhanh thu duqc la 7.053,72 trieu d6ng Theo do, thi miic thu nhap va lqi nhuan du kien da dat duqc chi tieu d^ Hoat dong kinh doanh luon ton tai nhung rui ro, vi the.de han chS duqc nii ro hoat dong cho vay, MDB rat can than viec ph^ duyet cho vay nham han ch8 rui ro tin dung Ben canh do, MDB can phai theo doi su thay doi ciia lai suat, tir de cac lai suat cho vay phu hop vdi quy djnh nha nude va muc chenh lech vdi lai suit huy dong Cuoi cung de du bao duqc ket qua kinh doanh thi chuong trinh md phdng Crystal Ball la cdng cu huu ich cho ke hoach Thong qua cdng cu nay, kdt qua du bao cho thiy k6 hoach cho vay nong nghiep nam 2013 cho MDB LX rit kha thi, kha nang bi 16 rit thip (0,48%), cd thi dat mdc lqi nhuan 14.000 trieu ddng MUC LUC LOT CAM ONi TOM TAT^ii MUC LUCiv DANH MUC BANGviii DANH MUC HINH„ix DANH MUC BIEUDOix CHUOfNG TONG QUAN VE DE TAI1 1.1Co- so- hinh di tai1 1.2Muc tieu nghien ciru2 1.3Pham vi nghien ciru2 1.4Phiromg phap nghien cihi2 1.5• Y nghia nghien ciiu3 1.6Kit ciu nghien ciiu3 CHUONG CO Sd LY THUYET VA MO HINH NGHIEN CUU5 2.1Ly thuygt vi ngan hang thiro-ng mai va cac hoat (long cua ngan hang „v.5 2.1.1Djnh nghia vi ngan hang thmmg mai5 2.1.2Hoat dong cho vay cfla NHTM5 2.1.2.1Binh nghia,5 2.1.2.2Phanloai ::._ 2.1.2.3Bieu Men vay von,6 2.1.2.4Thaihan cho vay6 2.1.2.5' Quytrlnh cho vay 2.1.3Quan tri rui ro kinh doanh ngan hang 2.1.3.1Binh nghia rui ro.' 2.1.3.2Rui ro tin dung (credit risk)8 2.1.3.3Ruiro tygid (exchange rate risk)8 2.1.3.4Rui ro lai sudt (Interest rate risk)8 2.1.3.5Binh lucmg rui ro bdng Crystal Ball9 2.2Ke hoach kinh doanh NHTM9 2.2.1 Binhnghfa9 2.2;2 Nordung cua-kg hoach kinh doanh9 2.2.3Phan tich cac yeu t6 m5i trir&ng kinh doanh11 2.2.3.1Phan tich moi truang vimo11 2.2.3.2Moi'truang tac nghiep11 2.2.3.3Phan tich moi truang noi bo 12 2.2.4Xay dung kl hoach kinh doanh12 2.2.5Cong cu xay dung cac kg hoach kinh doanh kha tbi13 2.2.5.1Ma trdnphqm vi hoat dong vd iqi the cqnh tranh13 2.2.5.2Ma trdn SWOT xay dung ki hoach kinh doanh13 2.3Luoc khao cac nghien ciin truoc14 2.4M6 hinh nghien ciru16 2.5Tom tat chwong 217 CHtfONG PHU"ONG PHAP NGHIEN CUH18 3.1Thilt k6 nghien ciin:18 3.2Cac buoc tien hanh nghien ciru18 3.2.1Nghien cun so bo„18 3.2.2Nghien cu-u chinh thirc20 3.3Tom tat chirong 21 CHlTONG PHAN TICH MOI TRl^CING KINH DOANH CUA NGAN HANG THHONG M^J CO PHAN PHAT TRIEN ME KONG - CHI NHANHLONGXUYEN22 4.1Gioi thieu khai quat ve Ngan hang phat tri^n Me Kong22 4.1.1Gioi thi^u \e hoi so- chinh 22 4.1.2Gioi thigu vg MDB - Chi nhanh Long Xuyen23 4.1.2.1Cacduto chuc cua MDB - Long Xuyen24 4.1.2.2Chuc ndng cac phdng ban24 4.1.2.3Cac sdnphdm tin dung cita MDB Long Xuyen.25 4.1.2.4Sdnphdm cho vay ndng nghiSp26 4.2Phan tich moi trunng vi mo27 4.2.1Tac dong cua moi trirong kinh kg27 4.2.2Tac dong cua moi trirong chinh tri phap Iuat.28 4.2.3Tac dong cua moi truxmg tir nhien29 4.2.4Tac dong cua moi trirfrng cong nghe30 4.3Phan tich moi trufrng tac nghiep30 4.3.1Tong quan nganh ngan hang tai An Giang30 4.3.2Phan tich d6i thu canh tranh31 4.3.3Phan tich khach hang34 4.4PhSn tich m6i trircmg noi bo35 4.4.1Kit qua hoat dong kinh doanh giai doan 2010 - 201235 -4.4.2 Thu'c trang cho vay nong nghiep tai MDB Long Xuyen35 4.4.2.1Tinh hinh doanh so cho vay nong nghiep giai doan 2010 - 2012 .'.'35 4.4.2.2Tinh hinh dit no theo muc dich sic dung von37 4.4.2.3Tinh hinh npxdu37 '4.4.2.4 Mot so chi lieu so sdnh hoat dong cho vay nong nghiep giira MDBLongXuyen vd cdc doi thu canh tranh39 4.4.2Hoat dong marketing va dich vu khach hang39 4.4.3flanh gia hoat dong tin dung nong nghiep cua MDB AG40 4.5Tom tat chu-ong 4:41 GHtfCflNG XAY DU"NG KE HO^CH CHO VAY NONG NGHIEP NAM 2013 CHO MDB - CHI NHANH LONG XUYEN42 5.1 D|nh htrong phat triin cua MDB Long Xuyen nam 201342 5:2Muctieu42 5.2.1Can cu- di xac dinh muc tieu42 5.2.2M^c tieu cho vay nong nghiep nam 201342 5.3 Hoach djnh ke hoach kinh doanh tong quat43 5.3.1Ma tran phani vi hoat dong va loi thi canh tranh43 5.3.2Ma tran SWOT:„ 44 5:4 Ki hoach kinh doanh cdc bo phan 46 5.4.1Ke hoach cho vay46 5.4.2Ke hoach tiep thi48 5.4.2.1Ke hoach sanphdm va ch&t lupng dich vu48 5.4.2.2Ki hoach gia50 5.4.2.3Ki hoach phan phSi50 Xdy dung ki hoach cho vqy nong nghiep ndm 2013 cho MDB chi nhdnh LongXuyen ^-"*^^"- 5.4.3 Ke hoach nhan sy 5.4.3.1Ke hoach tuyen dung Hoat dpng tuyen dung Hoi so quyet dinh, phan cong nhiem so xuong tumg chi nhanh Ben canh do, MDB Long Xuyen hien dang du can bp phu trach tin dung nong nghiep, nen nam 2013 chi nhanh se khong tuyen them nhan sir tin dung nong nghiep 5.4.3.2Ke hoach dao tao vdphdt trien nguon nhan luc MDB luon xem nhan vien la tai san ldn nhat cua ngan hang, do cac chinh sach cua ngan hang doi vdi can bp, nhan vien luon huang tai viec thoa man tot nhat nhu cau cua nhan vien qua trinh lam viec ^ '.: kirn \:"iii" c in 'Chi Nfmu l.ui nong trinh dp chuyen nghiep mon • tin dung ^:• Hi Ngoai ra, cac nhan vien dupe hoc nhung kinh nghiem tai Chi nhanh thong qua cac buoi hop vao moi buoi sang vdd Ban lanh dao LeMyHien-DHlOKD Trang 54 Xay dung ke hoach cho vqy nong nghiep nam 2013 cho MDB chi nhdnh LongXuyen Chi phi Immg: khong co sir thay d6i so voi nam 2012 Cong tac phi: la chi phi di lai, an a, tiep khach Chi phi dua tren cong tic phi nam 2012 Chinh sach khen thirdmg: dirac thyc hien theo quy che cua MDB nham khich Ie tinh than lam viec va sir cong hien cua nhan vien thong qua ket qua hoat dong kinh doanh va chat luong phuc khach hang: hrong thing 13, khen thuong nhan vien xuit sic hoan tot nhiem vu (dur kiSn 10 trieu d6ng/nguai, tuy.miic cong viec) LeMyHiln-DHlOKDTrang55 Xdy dung ke hoach cho vqy nong nghiep nam 2013 cho MDB chi nhdnh Long Xuyen ? Chi phi luong, c6ng tac phi, chi phi khen thiroiig Bang 5.11 Chi phi Imrag, cong tac phi, chi phi khen thuong di.r kien nam 2013 (DVT: trieu ding) , • Chitieu Ghirc yu/vi"tri s6 i tin dung -, ' 11 I rNhan vienhp tra t • • Luang S6 ^tien/ngiroi/thang Nhan vien tin dung n6ng nghiep • -P ' Iirong : '-4 Chiphidir kiSii 660,00 ' ' 192,00 • ' • Trircmg phong kinh doanh l 84,00 ^ Cong tac phi 62,00 Chiphikhen ' thudngdu kien P; T8ng^ 15 -••••_ 100,00 • 1,098,00 5.4.4 Ke hoach tai chinh Tir cac ke hoach duac dir kien thuc hien: ke hoach ban hang, ke hoach chieu thi, kl hoach nhan sir thi kl hoach tai chinh duac thuc hien nhlm tong hop dulieu, luang hoa cac nguon lire va lap bao cao tai chinh du kien Ke hoach tai chinh duac thi hien nhu sau: "??? Thu nhap du kien tir hoat dpng cho vay nong nghiep nam 2013 dupe thi hien bang 5.11.' - Bang 5.12 Thu nhap tir hoat dpng cho vay nong nghiep dir kien nam 2013 (DVT: trieu ding) _,.,.,Doanh so cho Laisuatbinh _, ,„_, ' , Thoihan„Thu nhapGhi chii vayquan 'Nganhqn' Trung va dai hqn | A tong '- 35.640,00 P 198.000^0 LeMyHien-DHlOKD 15,0%/nam 17:O47,8C1 ;, r• - "5.346,00 \ , Mng5.3P \-:'p'-.P' P': 22.393^B0 •: " Trang 56 Xdy dung ke hoach cho vay nong nghiep nam 2013 cho MDB chi nhdnh LongXuyen ? Chi phi du kien cho ke hoach cho vay nong nghiep nam 2013 bao gom cac chi phi: quang cao, khuyen mai, luang, cong tac phi, chi phi dao tao, chi phi von va chi phi du phong rui ro tin dung Trong do, chi phi von va chi phi du phong rui ro tin dung duac tinh nhu sau: -Chi phi von la chi phi cua khoan tien giii cua khach hang dung bang khoan tiSn cho vay la 198.000 trieu d6ng va duac tinh bang Iai su^t tien gui tiet kiem birih quan cua ME>B la 7,0%/nam (Iai suat hien MDB ap dung la 7,5%/nam; nhien theo tinh hinh hien (tinh tai 9/5/2013) mot so ngan hang nhu Vietcombank, BIDV dang co xu huong giam Iai suat 6%/nam va theo du bao cua ngan hang JPMorgan Chase va ANZ Iai suat huy dong ngan han se giam xuong 5,5% - 6,5%/nam, vi vay Iai suat binh quSn du kien la 7,0%/nam) -Chi phi du phong rui ro tin dung duac tinh bang gia tri ncrxau mong nghiep du kien nhan vdi ty le trich lap du phong (theo dieu 12 Thong tu S6: 02/2013/TT-NHNN quy dinh ve phan loai tai san co, miic trich, phuang phap trich lap du phong rui ro va viec su dung du phong de xu: ly rui ro hoat dong cua to chiic tin dung, chi nhanh ngan hang nudcngoai.• Trong do: Gia tri na xau nong nghidp (du kien)-= ty le na xau (du kien) x tong du na nong nghiep du kien (gia dinh du na nong nghiep nam 2013 bang vai nam 2012) = 0,38% x 104.853 = 398,441 trieu d6ng Ty le trich lap du phong = 30% (theo y kien ciia ke toan trudng (Anh Hai) MDB Long Xuyen) LeMyHien-DHlOKD.Trang57 Xdy dung kihoach cho vay nong nghiep nam 2013 cho MDB chi nhdnh LongXuyen Bang 5.13 Tong chi phi hoat dong cho vay nong nghiep dy kien ham 2013 (BVT: trieu d6ng) STT Chi phi Chi tieu Ghi chii hoatdong Chi phi du kien cho hoat dong quang cdo I ;2 Chi phi du kiin cho hoat dong khuyen mqi Chi phi luang, congtdcphi, chi phi ddo tao 47,25 Bang 5.8 35,30 Bang 5.9 ,' 1.098,00 Bang 5.11 Co 15 nguoi moi giai, f Chi phi cqngtdc vien 180,00 t luang binh.quSn khoang"' trieu/thang, hucmg theb hoa h6ng Chi phi von Chi phi du phong rin ro tin dung T6ng 13 860,00 198.000x7,0% 119,53 398,441x30% 15.340,08 Bang 5.14 Lai tir hoat dong cho vay nong nghiep dy kien nam 2013 (DVT: trieu d6ng) Khoan miic S6 tin Ghi chu Thu nhqp tit hoat dong cho vay nong nghiep '22.393,80 Bang 5.12 Tong chi phi hoat dong cho vay nong nghiep 15.340,08 Bang 5.13, Lai 7.053,72 5.4.5 Bien phap dy phohg rui ro Trong hoat dong kinh doanh thi luon ton tai nhOng nii ro tiem an, lam anh huang den ket qua hoat dong kinh doanh Theo danh gia cua Ban lanh dao va can bo tin dung nong nghiep thi rui ro thucmg gap hoat dong cho vay nong-nghiep bao gom rui ro tin dung va rui ro lai suat LeMyHi6n-DH10KD , Trang 58 Xdy dung ke hoach cho vay nong nghiep ndm 2013 cho MDB chinhanh LongXuyen ?Rui ro tin dung: -Hien tai, thu nhap chinh cua ngan hang la tit hoat dong tin dung, binh quan chiem tren 97% tdng so thu nhap cua Ngan hang Do do, MDB Long Xuyen rat quan tam den viec kiem soat nii ro hoat dong tin dung Cac khoan tin dung ludn dtrqc MDB xem xet trade quygt dinh va khoari cho vay chi dupe thong qua co sir nhit tri cua 100% cac vien Hoi dong tin dung khu vuc Me Kdng/hdi dong tin dung ca nhan/hdi.ddng tin dung MDB Be dupe Vay thi khach hang vay phai co phucrng an hoat dong hieu qud va co tai san the chap Do do, viec phan tan rui ro hoat dong tin'dung dupe thuc hien kha tot -Ben canh do, cho vay nong nghiep phu thuoc rat nhieu vao dieu kien thien nhien, day la nii ro khong the tranh khoi, co the lam cho nong dan mat kha nang toan Do do, de giam bdt thiet hai cho ngurdi nong dan CBTD can tu van cho nong dan mua bap Mem nong nghiep, va GBTD danh gia tinh hinh khach hang ma giai quyet theo gia han no, tai dau tu hoac dau tu them -Be khac phuc hau qua cua nii ro tin dung, MDB Long Xuyen ludn chii • dong trich lap du phong nii ro tin dimg theo quy dinh hien hanh cua NHNN, de bu dap cho nhung ton that phat sinh hoat dong tin dung Dtr ki^n miic trich lap la 150 trieu d6ng ?Rui ro lai su^t: lai suit la Hoi so quygt dinh, chi nhanh chi thuc hien quygt dinh, vi thg chmh sach phong ngira lai suit la Hoi so dg Rui ro lai suit phat sinh co su chgnh lech ky han gitta huy dong va cho vay cua ngan hang cac bign dong lai suit cua thi tradng Rui ro lai suat anh huong trpc tigp din thu nhap cua Ngan hang Do do, Hoi sd quan ly rui ro lai suat rit cin trong, Hoi sd luon theo doi sir thay doi cua lai suit trgn thi tradng dg tu dua nhung nhan dinh dung din vi diln biin, xu hudng cua lai suat trgn thi tradng Hoi sd chu dong digu hanh lai suit dupe mpt each lihh hoat: quy dinh lai suat cho vay ttrng thdi ky cho phu hop vdi thay ddi cua lai suit thi tradng, quy dinh ky han huy dong von va cho vay hop ly dg thu hep chgnh lech ky han binh quan giua huy dng va cho vay 5.4.6 Binh lirpng rui ro bang Crystal Bail 5.4.6.1 Khai bdo cac gia bien gia thuyet cua ke hoach -Thu nhap tu hoat dong cho vay ngin han nong nghiep dupe udc lupng khoang 17.047,80 trieu ddng (bang 5.3, vdi muc lai suit la 10,5%/nam), co phan phdi chuin vdi dp lech chuin la 1.623,60 trieu ddng (vdi dp lech lai suit la 1%) -Thu nhap tir hoat ddng cho vay trung va dai han nong nghiep dupe udc lupng khoang 5.346,00 trieu ddng (bang 5.3, vdi mire lai suat la LeMyHi&i-DHlOKDTrang 59 Xdy di/ng k^ hoifch cho vay nong nghiep nam 2013 cho MDB chi nhanh LongXuyen 15%/nam), co phan ph6i chuln vdi lech chuln la 356,40 trieu ding (vdidplSchlaisultiai%) T6ng chi phi hoat dpng cho vay n6ng nghiep (chua tinh chi phi v6n) co phan phoi tarn giac, chi phi thucmg xuat Men nhat la 1.480,08 trieu d6ng (bang 5.13), chi pM cao nhit la 1.628,09 trieu d6ng va chi phi thdp nhdt la 1.332,07 trieu d6ng (mtirc lech cM pM 10%) CM pM v6n duac uac luang khoang 13.860 trieu d6ng (bang 5.13^ vdi nuic lai suit la 7,0%/nam), c6 phan ph6i chuln voi d6 lech chudn la 1.980 trieu d6ng (vdi dp ldch lai suit la 1%) 5.4.6.2 Kit qua mophong Kit qua mo phong dupe thl Men thong qua cac bilu dd dudi day: 0.002,000.004.O0O.006,000.006,000.00 L^i nhun 10,000.00 12,000.00 14,000.00 Bilu 5.1 Lpi nhuan trung binh, Ipl nhuan toi da d^ kiln o K! hoach cho vay nong ngMpp nam 2013 cua MDB LX d^t dupe m6c lpi nhuan trung binh la 7.035,96 tri$u ding xa co khd nang d^t dupe mile lpi nhuan tli da la 14.000 trieu ding L6MyHi!n-DH10KD Trang60 Xdy dymg ke hoQch cho vay nong nghi^p nam 2013 cho MDB chi nhanh LongXuyen Frequency View L0i nhun dii kien Lpinhu^n Bi6u d6 5.2 Klia nang b| I6 o Kha n5ng bi 16 ciia k6 hoach cho vay nong nghiep la 0,48% (100% - 99,52%) ^^equency Wew 934Displeyed Ldi nhuan dU kien 0.,.4 6,0 008.00.00 Lpinhu$n [> 16.900.00 10.000.00 Certaicly: 152.70 12.000.00 14.080.00 |Hinay Bieu 5.3 Lgi nhuan muc tieu o Muc tieu dat cho ke hoach la 6.900 tri6u d6ng, xac suat dat duoc nuic lgi nhuan muc trung binh 52,7% => Thong qua kit qua mo phong Crystal Ball, ta thay dugc k6 hoach cho vay nong nghi^p nam 2013 cho MDB LX la kha thi, kha nang bi 16 rat thip, lgi nhuan dat dugc tucmg doi cao, co the dat mire lgi nhuan toi da Ik 14.000 trieu d6ng VI vay kg hoach nen dugc trign khai thuc Men UMyHi6n-DH10KD Trang 61 Xdy dung ke hogch cho vay nong nghiep ndm 2013 cho MDB chi nhdnh LongXuyen ^•'"^.™e—.™* 5.5 Tom tat chirong Trong chirong ke hoach cho vay nong nghiep narri 2013 cho chi nhanh da dutgc de Thong qua ket qua phan tich ttr chuong 4, ma tran SWOT dugc thiet lap tir dua cdc chien luge: tham nhap thi trudng va phat trien thi truong Tir dua cac ke hoach ban hang, chieu thi, nhan su va tai chinh Ke hoach ban hang nham dua cac bien phap de tang tinh canh tranh so vdi cac doi thu Ke hoach chieu thi la thuc hien ke hoach 4P nham gioi thieu, tu van, md rong it nhat xa, dua san pham den vdi khach hang vdi chinh sach lai suat, khuyen mai, quang cao Ke hoach nhan su la thuc hien chinh sach dao tao va luong thudng nham phat trien ngudn nhan luc Tiep theo la thuc hien chinh sach tai chinh, tap hqp cac khoan chi phi du kien cho hoat dpng cho vay nong nghiep nam-2013: Cudi cung la bien phap dy phdng rui ro tin dung, rui ro lai suat nham quan ly rui ro hieu qua hoat dong tin dung nong nghiep va phuong phap phan tich rui ro va du bao kdt qua kinh doanh Crystal Ball LeMyHien-DHIOKDTrang62 Xqy dung ke hoach cho vay nong nghiep nam 2013 cho MDB chi nhdnh Long Xuyen cmraNG KETLUAN 6.1 Kit luan MDB la mot ngan hang nhd, vdi hon 20 nam hoat dong ngarih ngan hang, san pham chii lire cua ngan hang la cho vay nong nghiep Trong qua trinh hoat dong tin dung nong nghiep giai dqan 2010 - 2012, MDB Long Xuyen da dat dupe mot s6 tun va gap mot so han chi Thanh tuu: (1) hoat dong kinh doanh dat hieu qua vdi uy tin cang duqc nang cao; (2) dpi ngu nhan viSn co trinh dp chuyen mon cao, nghiep vu tit, than thien, nhiet tinh; (3) quy trinh th^m dinh dupe kiem tra, xem xet chat che; (4) lai suat linh hoat, thoa thuan; (5) dja ban hoat dong tuong doi rpng Mat han che: (1) hoat dong marketing chua hieu qua; (2) cham sdc khach hang kho khan, mat nhieu thai gian dia ban xa; (3) thai gian giai ngan cham Dun tren kit qua hoat dong kinh doanh nam 2012, doanh si cho vay nong nghiep nam 2012, xu hudrig ca ciu nong nghiep nam 2013 cua tinh An Giang va Can Tha, muc tieu cho vay nong nghiep 2013 cua MDB Long Xuyen dupe di nhu sau: -Pham vi hoat dong: ma rpng them it nhat xa -Doanh si cho vay nong nghiep: tang 28% so vdi nam 2012 (198.000 trieu ding) -Lpinhuan: chiem30% thunhap -Ty le np xau nong nghiep gi^m: 0,3 8% Bang nhung cfing cu phan tich, ma tran SWOT dupe hinh thanh, cac chien lupc tham nhap thi truang va phat trien thi truang dupe dS xuat dupe thuc hien thong qua chien lupc khac biet hoa vai cac ke hoach ban hang, chieu thi, nhan su va tai chinh -Kg hoach ban hang: chi nhahh di chi tieu kinh doanh la 198.000 trieu dong, dppc phan theo vi tri dia ly (5 dia ban) va phan theo thai han cho vay (ng3n h^n; trung va dai han) Ki hoach dupe thuc hien thong qua cac bien phap diy manh hoat dong marketing, giam bat cac thu tuc giiy ta, - giai quyet nhanh chong thai gian hoan tat hi6 sa nham dem lai nguon von kip thai cho khach hang, ben canh ket hap vdi su nhiet tinh, than thien • va su am hieu thi trufrng cua dpi ngu nhan vien tin dung -Ke hoach marketing: thuc hien cac hoat dong quang cao, marketing, dich vu khach hang nh^m gidi thieu, quang ba hinh anh MDB, san pham cho vay nong nghifp, chuang trinh lai su^t, chuang trinh khuy^n mai cho khach hang, nhlm giup khach hang cd ca hoi tiep can ngudn vdn dl dang LeMyHi6n-DH10KD•*Trang63 Xay dung ke hoach cho vay nong nghiep nam 2013 cho MDB chi nhanh LongXuyen **.—' -Ke hoach nhan su: thirc hien cac chinh sach dao tao de nang cao trinh dp cho nhan vien, ben.canh thuc hien cac chinh sach luong thudng cho can bp nhan vien nham khich le nhan vien -Ke hoach tai chinh: tong hop tat ca cac chi phi va thu nhap tir cac ke hoach trudc Theo thi thu nhap nam 2013 la 22.393,80 trieu ding, t6ng chi phi thuc hien la 15.340,08 trieu ding va lpi nhuan du ki6n Chi nhanh thu dupe la 7.053,72 trieu dong Theo do, thi miic thu nhap va lpi nhuan du kien da dat dupe chi tieu de Be han che dupe nii ro hoat dpng cho vay, MDB rit can than viec phe duyet cho vay nMm han che nii ro tin dung Ben canh do, MDB can phai theo doi su thay d6i cua lai sudt, tu dg cac lai sudt cho vay phu hop vdi quy dinh nha nuoc va miic chenh lech voi lai suat huy dpng Thong qua chuong trinh phan tich nii ro va du bao ket qua kinh doanh Crystal Ball thi ket qua cho thfiy ke hoach cho vay rdt kha thi, kha nang dat dupe miic lpi nhuan cao co thi dat miic 14.000 trieu ding 6.2 Han che cua nghien ciru Be tai dupe thuc hien vdi cac gi^ dinh: chinh sach cua nha nude khong thay doi, moi trudng kinh doanh it bien dpng va lai suat it bien dpng, ty le du phdng rui ro khong chenh lech nhieu so vdi thuc te Neu cac yeu thay doi thi co the dan den sai lam lap ke hoach vi moi trudng thay doi, co hoi va de dpa doi vdi ngan hang thay doi tir dan den chien lupc thay doi Ben canh do, dl tai chua phan tich dupe hoat dpng cho vay nong nghiep theo muc dich su dung v6n nong nghiep vi khong cd du: lieu dl^phan tich Do do, ke hoach chua dupe chi tiet, cp the LeMyHien-DHlOKD'Trang64 i Xay dung ke hoach cho vay nong nghiep nam 2013 cho MDB chi nhanh LongXuyen TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Cao Thi Hong Nhung 2012 Xay dung ke hoach hoat dong tin dung cho ngan hang TMCP Sai Gon Thuang Tin - chi nhanh An Giang Khoa luan tot nghiep Cu nhan tai chinh ngan hang Khoa Kinh te - QTKD, Dai Hoc An Giang Huu Huynh 16/10/2012 Sa kit hoat dong thang Clng thong tin dien hi An Giang[truetuyen].Doctir: http://www.artgiang.gov.vn/wps/portal/!ut/p/c4/04 SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8x Bz9CP0os3i3oBBLczdTBwML wBzA09 rOBnE18n!wNPA 2CbEdFAPYbG 4Q!/?WCM GLOBAL CONTEXT=/wps/wcm/connect/web+content/angiang /trangchu/tintucsukien/kinhtehoptacdautu/nhnnvnchnhanhsketh9tahng (doc 30703/2013) Huy Vu 17/12/201^ De nong dan vimg dingbang song CiiuLongbdtkhokhan vi "khat" von Tap chi cong san [true tuyen] Doc tir: http://www.tapchicongsan.org.vn/Home/nong-nghiep-nongthon/2012/19244/De-nong-dan-vung-dong-bang-song-Cuu-Long-bot-kho- khamasgx (doc 25/01/2013) Huynh Phu Thinh 10/2009 Giao trinh Chiln hrqckinh doanh Khoa KT QTKD Dai hoc An Giang Lam Nguyen 11/12/2012 Trong lua cung thieu von! Thai bao kinh-doanh [tru75c4 tuyen] Doc tir: http://www.vnbusiness.vn/441/newsdetail/406247/lang-kinh/trong-lua-cung%E2%80%A6-thieu-von-.html (doc 26/01/2013) Nguyln Dang Dim 2009 Nghiep vu ngan hang thuang m^i TP Hi Chi Minh NXBThlngKe •Nguyln Minh Kilu 2007 Nghiep vu ngan hang hien dai TP H6 Chi Minh NXB thing ke."' Nguyln Qulc Khanh 31/12/2010 Dilukien tu nhien Clng thong tm dien hi huyenThoaiSan.Doctir: http://thoaison.angiang.gov.vn/wps/portal/iut7p/c5/04 SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPv 8xBz9CP0os3i3oBBLczdTEwOLMAMLA08Tb6cwN8sg92BLM lwkA4kF QaG5pYGnpYWvi5G7i5Gbo7GaPL- Bp7mOBOcg31CvYONXXxNIflGOICigb6fR35uqn5BdnaQhaOiIg7izUDHs/ dl3/d3/L3dDb0EvUU5RTGtBISEvWUZSdndBISEvN19HUlQ5N0YlNDA4V • iA4MEkOSOJWRilSRlNONO!!/ idoc ngav 4/4/20131 Pham Ngoc Thuy va cac tac gia 2002 Kl hoach kinh doanh TP HCM NXB Dai hoc Qulc gia TP HCM Phan Phuang Thao 2011 Xay dung kl hoach kinh doanh nam 2011 cho ngan hang thuang mai cl pMn A Chau - chi nhanh An Giang Khoa luan tit nghiep Cu nhan Quan tri kinh doanh Khoa Kinh tl - QTKD, Dai hoc An Giang •LeMyHien-DHlOKDTrang65 Xay dung ke hogch cho vqy nong nghiep nam 2013 cho MDB chi nhdnh LongXuyen Thanh Hung 31/03/2013 Mot Loat quygt dinh quan tir NHNN Cafef Doc tir: http://cafef.vn/tai-chinh-ngan-hang/tai-chinh-ngan-hang-tuan-den-313- mot-loat-quvet-dinh-quan-trong-tu-nhnn-2013 033107573 651010ca34.chn (doc 31/03/2013) Tr^n Van Cling, khong thang Phat tri^n tin dung nong th6n d6i vai nong dan An Giang Hoi nong dan Viet Nam tinh An Giang Doc tu: http://hoinongdanag.org.vn/%C4%91%E1%BB%9Di-s%E1%BB%91ngx%C3%A3-h%El%BB%99i/nam-2012/4059.aspx (doc 30/03/2013) Vu Dinh Phung 20/9/2012 Kit qua hoat dong kh6i ngan hang nam 2012 so noi vu tinh An Giang [true tuyen] Doc tir:' http://sonoivu.angiang.gov.vn/wps/portal/!ut/tr/c4/04- SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPv 8xBz9CP0os3i3oBBLczdTEwMLD383A09nxlADT OgUCdiM 2CbEdFAN 6OPXA!/?WCM GLOBAL CONTEXT=/wps/wcm/connect/sonoivu/siteofso noivu/tintucsukien/thi+dua+khen+thuong/ketquahoatdongkhoinganhangnamh aikhpngmuqimot (doc 02/12/2012) Vu Dinh Phung 20/9/2012 KSt qua hoat dong kh6i nganh ngan hang nam 2012 SoNpivutinhAnGiang.Doctir: http://sonoivu.angiang.gov.vn/wps/portal/!ul/p/c4/04 SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPv 8xBz9CP0os3i3oBBLczdTEwMLD383A09nxlADT OgUCdiM 2CbEdFAN 6OPXAI/7WCM GLOBAL CONTEXT=/wps/wcm/connect/sonoivu/siteofso noivu/tintucsukien/thi+dua+khen+thuong/ketQuahoatdongkhoinganhangnamh aikhongmuoimot (doc ngav 30/03/20131 Khong tac gia 30/12/2012 Nong nghiep khang dinh vai tro try cot ciia nen kinh te Tap chi cpng s^n [true tuyen] Doc tir: ' http://www.tapchicongsan.org.vn/Home/nong-nghiep-nongthon/2012/19493/Nong-nghiep-khang-dinh-vai-tro-tru-cot-cua-nen-kinh- teuspx (doc 25/01/2013) Khong tac gia 24/12/2012 Lam phat nam 2012 thip hon chi tieu cua Qu6c hoi Vietnamplus Doc tir: http://www.vietnamplus.vn/Home/Lam-phat-nam-2012- thap-hon-chi-tieu-cua-Quoc-hoi/201212/175322.vnplus (doc 31/03/2013) Khong tac gia Khong thang Be an xay dung nong thon mai Chuyen trang • xay drag nong thon mai [true tuygn] Doc tir: http://nongthonmoi.angiang.gov.vn/ch%C6%B0%C6%A1ng-tr%C3%ACnh- %C4%91%El%BB%81-%C3%Aln.aspx (doc 31/03/2013) Khong tac gia Khong thang Huyen VTnh Thanh - ph6 Cdn Tha Wikimapia[truetuySn].Doc- tir: http://wikimapia.org/24812164/vi/Huv%E1%BB%87n-Vi%CC%83nh- Tha%CC%A3nh-tha%CC%80nh-ph%C3%B4%CC%81C%C3%A2%CC%80n-Th%C6%Al (doc 4/4/20131 LeMyHien-DHlOKDTrang 66 Xay dung kihocich cho vay nong nghiep nam 2013 cho MDB chi nhanh LongXuyen PHU LUC Be cu'ong thao Iuan Ban lanh dao Ngan hang ? Muc tieu phong van: tim hieu tinh hinh hien tai va thi trudng ciia MDB Long Xuyen ??? Boi tirong phong van: Giam doc, Pho giam d6c va trucmg phong kinh doanh Chao anh, em ten la Le My Hien, em dang thurc Men de tai nghien cuu 'Xay dung ke hoach cho vay nong nghiep nam 2013 cho MBD chi nhanh Long Xuyen" Hien-tarem dang nghien ciiu giai doan tong the ve de tai Be bai nghien ciru mang tinh khdch quan, thuc te ve hoat dpng thuc tien ciia ngan hang, em nit mong nhan dupe su giiip-da ciia anh bang viec danh chut thai giantrao d6i mot so vSn de sau: 1.Nhan xet ciia anh ve tinh hinh ngahh ngan hang d An Giang nhu thS nao? 2.Anh cho Met, danh gia cua anh ve tinh hinh hoat dpng hien kinh doanh hien tai ciia MDB Long Xuyen sao? 3.Trong giai doan 2010-2012 vua qua, anh co nhan xet givl hoat dpng cho vay nong nghiep cua MDB Long Xuyen? 4.Khach hang muc tieu MDB Long Xuyen la ai? Ho co dac dilm gi? 5.Banh gia ciia anh ve nhu cau vay von nong nghiep cua huyen Chp Mai nam 2013? 6.Danh gia cua anh vk du np cho vay nong nghiep ciia ngan hang (kha nang np qua han, np xau)? 7.Boi thu canh tranh ciia chi nhanh gom nhimg (trendia ban tinh)? Tieu chi nao dl Ma chpn d6i thii c^inh hranli? Dilm manh cua MDB Long Xuyen so vai d6i thii la gi? DiSm ySu cua MDB Long Xuyen ckn khic phuc la gi? 8.Trong tinh hinh nen kinh te An Giang Men nay, anh nhan thay nhirng ca hoi va de dpa nao anh huang d^n MDB Long Xuyen? 9.Anh co the chia se nhiing rui ro co the thudng gap hoat dpng cho vay nong nghiep? Bien phap de han che rui ro la gi? Cam on anh da cung cap nhung thong tin quy bau Chile anh co lam viec tot! Le My Hien - DH1OKDTrang 67 Xdy dung kehoQch cho yay nong nghiep ndm 2013 cho MDB chi nhanh LongXuyen -*^ * PHU LUC Be cuoug thao luan Phong kinh doanh ?Muc tieu phong van: hoat dpng cua phong kinh doanh, nhftng muc tieu can dat dupe va nhflng hoat dpng de dat dupe muc tieu de ?Doi tirong nghien ciru: Truang phong kinh doanh, nhan vien bp phan cho vay nong nghiep Chao anh/chi, em ten la Le My Hien, em dang thuc hien de tai nghien cuu "Xay dung ke hoach cho vay nong nghiep ndm 2013 cho MBD chi nhdnh-Long Xuyen " Hien tai em dang nghien cuu giai doan tong the ve de tai Be bai nghien cuu mang tinh khach quan, thuc te ve hoat dpng thuc tien cua ngan hang, em rat mong nhan dupe su giiip d& cua anh bang viec danh chut thoi gian trao doi mot so van de sau: 1.Anh/chi cho biet, muc tieu cho vay nong nghiep nam 2013 cua MDB Long Xuyen la gi? 2.Muc tieu dupe phan b6 sao? Phan b6 theo tieu chi nao? 3.Banh gia cua anh/chi ve nhu cau vay von nong nghiep cua nong dan tai dia ban ma anh/chi dang phu trach? 4.Anh/chi cho biet san phim cho vay nong nghiep cua MDB Long Xuyen co gi khac biet so vdi d6i thu canh tranh? Nhung diSm han chg cua san pham la gi? 5.(*) Trong giai doan tori, phong co ke hoach cai tien san pham nham thu hut khach hang vay v6n nong nghiep khong? Neu co, la ke hoach gi? 6.Anh/chi cho biet, hoat dpng cho vay nong nghiep dupe trien khai tren het dia ban ma anh/chi phu trach chua? Neu chua, hoat dpng sap tai, anh/chi co ke" hoach ma rpng hoat dpng tren het dia ban phu trach khong? Kg hoach la gi? 7.NhGng Men phap nao thucmg dupe su dung de thu hut nguai dan vay von nong nghiep? 8.(*) Anh cho biet Men tai co bao nhieu nhan vien tin dpng phu trach vg cho vay nong ngMep? Phuang huang sap toi anh co dg xuat phan cong thgm nhan vien phu trach tin dung nong nghiep niia khong? 9.Trong qua trinh lam viec, anh/chi co thuomg gap nhiing gop y tir phia khach hang khong? Ngu co, la nhung gop y gi? 10.Anh/chi cho biet nhung rui ro thucmg gap hoat dpng cho vay nong nghiep la gi? Bign phap dg kh^c phuc la gi? LeMyHiSn-DHlOKDTrang 68 ... vao phuong thurc cho vay thi cho vay bao gdm loai: -Cho vay theo mdn vay -Cho vay theo han muc tin dung' Dua vao phuong thurc hoan tra no vay thi cho vay bao gdm loai: -Cho vay chi co mot ky han... tin dung thi cho vay bao g6m Ioai: -Gho vay ngin han: la Ioai cho vay co thai han durii nam -Cho vay trung han: la Ioai cho vay co thai han tri den nam -Cho vay dai han: la Ioai cho vay co thai... ,- Cho vay bo sung von luu dong -Cho vay cam co cac giay tor co gia -Cho vay cac khoan phai thu -Cho vay han muc LeMyHid-DHlOKDTrang25 Xay dung kihoach cho vay nong nghiep nam 2013 cho MDB chi