THÔNG TIN TÀI LIỆU
DẠI HỌC ọ u o c (ÌIA HÀ NỌI n u ỜNa đ n £ h ó a c c li t r ỏ n g d i c u S ụ ^ia t ă n g c ú a n l u l i i g n g t r ò i d i c i r c ó t r ì n l i d ộ c a o ( c h a y m u c h i l i x m ) 13 l ) i c t r ổ l i v h o n III II c h ấ t x m c lị iil i D ò n g k i ề u h ố i c h â y v ề c c n i r c đ a n " p h t t r i ể n t ấ n « (lột b i ê n v v ẩ n ÔI k é c a k h i I Õ k i l l i n g h o n g tà i c h í n h l o n c ầ u 16 K c l l u ậ n 21 C liiro ìig NÃNC LỤC K H Ố N G 'l)O N (; l ) i : u V Ả M Ỏ H ÌN H C H Ả Y M Á U C H Á T X Á M T O I ƯU 23 I) ẩu n h ậ p 23 M ó h ì n h fơnj» q u t 25 M ó h ì n h ỉ li c u l ó i u I I 28 m u c l i ã t x m (ói t u i 33 K ò l l u â n 40 Mô h ìn h chá\ P h ụ lục .24 Kè t qu a hỏi q u y 11ló hình Iou.It v e tinh irạim n g ỉ i e o 150 iiiiiỉ6.25 Anh luroiụ? hiên \;ìà nỉìhirờnu Ilitretécua kiêu 151 cỉu rin u trip le d Ị9 9 by 0 In 0 , n ea rly F ig u re E : 0 , % th e to tal v alu e of re m ittan c es re a d ie d S I.76 b illio n an d o f t h e c o u n t r y ’s ( i D l * I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e m i tt a n c e s t o V iet N a m a n d T h eir S h are s to GDP, 9 -2 100 - 9.0 -80 80 7.0 60 _ c 60 50 5.0 4.0 v> Co 3.0 => 30 2.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 R e m i ' t d r x e s A j D P (i.Hcj) 2005 2006 200/ 2008 2009 )0 s i R e m i t t a n c e s (RHS) G D P - g ro s s d o m e s t ic p r o d u c t , t.HS - le f t h a n d s id e , RMS = r ig h t h a n d Side S o u rc e A u t h o r 's c o m p i la t io n o f in te r n a tio n a l l é m i t t a n c e i f r o m v a r io u s so u rce '-' o n a n n u a i p a s s a n d 0 ^ c ld id fr o m i n t e r n a t io n a l M o n e t a r y F u n d (2010} A f te r th e g l o b a l c r is i s e r u p t e d in la te 0 , r e m i t t a n c e s d e c l i n e d re g a in e d th eir u p w a rd tre n d th e re a fte r A s c a n h as b e e n stab le at ro u g h ly % a m o u n t o f re m ittan c es h as b ee n w ith o th er k ey F ig u r e E : fin an c ial flo w s in 0 b u t q u i c k l y b e s e e n , th e tio o f re m itta n c e s to G D P in r e c e n t y e a r s M o r e o v e r , F i g u r e E s h o w s th a t th e g ro w in g stead ily o v e r th e in c o m p a r i s o n from ab ro a d W h ile th e last to tal 10 y e a rs v alu e o f re m ittan c es pre- R e m i t t a n c e s a n d O t h e r F i n a n c i a l F l o \ ^ Ệ ^ 9 - (U SS b illio n ) 10 - - 87 - I J5 £ b ~ - 210- — I -r-1 r - T FD i - R e m itta n c e s — ~ O D A c o m m it t e d - 10 n *—■—T-T - 12 N e l M J i m i lo w s O O A re a liz a tio n f o ie ig n d ir e c t in v e s t m e n t , O D A = o f f ic ia l d e v e lo p m e n t a s s is ta n c e S o u rc e A u t h o is c a lc u la t io n us«ng d a ta f io m In te r n a tio n a l M o n e ta r y F u n d V ie tn a m t0 A r tic le IV C o n s u lta h o fi i t j f * R e p o rt a n d P u b lic In fo n n a f'D P N o w ? C o u n f r y R e p o r t N o 10/7 * I - ^ r mMUih* OS, 999 w a s still a ssistan ce , less it h a s th an sin ce I f-'overty that d irec t in v e stm e n t e x c e e d e d W o rld o f fo reig n su rp a sse d th e o n ly ụ a p an d ill 0 fro m o ffic ia l stead ily w h e n fo reig n d ev e lo p m e n t in cre asin g V iet N a m I o re ig n jo in e d in v esto rs A s ca n th e also be th e fig u re, th e re m itta n c e s arc m o re stab le a n d s ig n ific a n t th a n th e o th er flo w s b e o ffic ial d e v e lo p m e n t a ssista n c e ty p ically is fu rth e r n o ted d u e to m o n e y a lso to n o te th at N a m T h e first im p o rta n t to V iet p e rm a n e n tly (V ie t h as in cre ase d o v e r lab o r a ste a d il) o f e x p o rtin g k ie u ), A s co u n trie s, esp e cially th re e m illio n an d th e th e ill t h e th e re U n ited V ietn a m e se tran sfers th ro u g h th e re is are is d e c a d e are fro m o r m a jo r m ig ran t so d irect in v e stm e n t d u e to so u rc e s w h o w o rk e rs th e sh o w s in te rn a tio n a l liv in g ab ro ad w h o se n u m b e r g o v e r n m e n t ’s d ia sp o s th e re g u la rly m e m b e rs an d o f m ig n ts V ie tn a m e se F ig u re E in 0 d iffe re n t p u rp o s e s , in c lu d in g su p p o rt o f fa m ily F ig u r e E : fo reig n in fo rm a l ch a n n els V ie tn a m e se m a n y S ta te s m ig ran ts tw o fro m se c o n d last re su lt, th at w h ile fig u re s a r e re la tiv e ly a c c u r a te , re m itta n c e (lata a rc u n d e re stim a te d re m itta n c e s th an in v estm en t w ith re m ittan c es a g a in d u r i n g t h e g l o b a l c r i s i s It s h o u l d It d irect latter, I d e O rg a n iz a tio n , re flec tin g o p tim is m see n fro m a n d th e in d istrib u tio n re m it to p o licy d ev e lo p ed o f m o re V iet N a m fo r in v estm en t N u m b e r o f V i e t n a m e s e O v e r s e a s , 0 (m illio n p e r s o n s ) S o u r c e B ù í N h â t Q u a n g (2 0 ) A v a ila b le : h u p / / w w w ( i n m o t v n / T i m h ie u v e - n g u c » - V ie t N a m o n u o c n g o d i ir o n g - t u o n g - q u a n - v o i- t r u o n g - h o p - lt a lia - $ ! h t m i A c c e s s e d o n A u g u s t T a b le E s u m m a riz e s th e o u tflo w o f w o rk e rs to m a jo r d estin atio n co u n trie s If th e g lo b a l c risis h a d n o t h a p p e n e d , th e a n n u a l n u m b e r o f V ie tn a m e s e m ig n t w o r k e rs w o u ld h a v e a p p ro a c h e d crisis h a s c le a rly 0 ,0 0 slo w e d i n 0 a c c o r d i n g t o t h e g o v e r n m e n t ’s p l a n th e o u tflo w o f w o rk e rs, w ith a n e g a tiv e effect o n B u t th e re m ittan c e in flo w s T h e a s h a rp U n ite d g lo b a l c risis a ls o h as a d v e rse ly fa ll im p a c te d in e x p o rts to m o st im p o rta n t S ta te s, le a d in g to a c o n sid e b le m a rk e ts d e c lin e th e V ie tn a m e s e lik e th e ill t o t a l e c o n o m y E u ro p e a n e x p o rts U n io n b e tw e e n th ro u g h an d 20Ơ th e an d 0 th e f o rtu n a te ly , reMỈient m a rk e t for th e c o u n t r y ’s o v e r a l l of e c o n o m ie s V ie tn a m e s e c o n s u m p tio n e o o d s p ro d u c ts th at p e rio d o f tim e T h is ca n re tu rn to p re -c risis F ig u r e E 4: P e o p l e ’s c a n in a n d fro m a fte r o n ly re c o v e re d of C h in a a n d d e v e lo p e d re c o v e r be g le a n e d le v e ls e x p o rts R ep ub lic c o u n trie s fin d q u ite q u ick ly , th a n k s to íù ist A s ia M o re o v e r, th e is m a in ly for a lo w -p ric e d o th e r m a rk e ts in re la tiv e ly F ig u re 4 , s h o w in g V ie tn a m e s e e x p o rts ’ sh o rt a year R e m itta n c e s , E x p o rts, a n d T d e B alan ce, 9 - 80.00-| -7 0 - 60.00~ 50.00ẳ 40.005 3000u 20.0010.00 0.00'10.00-20.00- ị I I 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 R e m itta n c e s 2004 - 2005 E x p o rt 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 - T r a d e b a la n c e S o u r c e I n t e ! n a t io n a l M o n e t a r y F u n d V ie tn a m A r t ic le I V C o n s u lt a t io n — S t a f f R e p o t t a n d P u b lic in f o r m a t io n N o tic e C o u n t ! y R e p o r t N o T h e to th at S till, tren d s o f m ig n t o f e x p o rts th e fa ll in in th e m ig ran ts m a y c o m p e n sa tin g th e ag g re g a te situ a tio n w o rk e r o u tflo w s co n te x t re m ittan c e p o ssib le e x p la n a tio n h a v e /2 , t h e I n t e r n a t io n a l M o n e t a r y F u n d o f th e flo w s w a s is t h a t a l t h o u g h not re m ittan c e c risis as (i.e , sev e re in flo w s as th e a m o u n t o f re m ittan c es an d q u ite q u ick d ro p in th eir sa v in g s a c c u m u la te d in a n n u a l r e m itta n c e s d u r i n g th e d e p th o f lab o r m ig ratio n are re la tiv e ly sim ilar reco v ery ) e x p o rts O n e th e g ro w th o f m ig n t w o r k e rs s lo w e d , re tu rn in g b ro u g h t b a c k w ith th e m for th e d ro p an d g lo b al d u rin g 0 m a y re m ittan c es T h e se tren d s n o t m a y ab ro ad , th ere b y o f th e c risis H e n c e , fu lly b e c o m e reflect th e real c l e a r e r in th e c o m in g y e a rs, w h e th e r o r n o t th ey are su stain ab le T h e Related Previous Studies su b ject o f m ig tio n m a k e rs but also an d research ers re m ittan c es an d h as d w n ac ad e m ics D a n g th e a tten tio n N g u y e n A n il n o t o n ly o f p o licy (2 0 ) d isc u sse s th e im p o rta n c e o f th e V ie tn a m e s e d ia s p o o v e rs e a s as an a c tiv e s o u rc e o f re m itta n c e s an d in v e s tm e n ts , a s w e ll as o f h u m a n attra ctio n c o m in g fro m c a p ita l a n d te c h n o lo g y H e m e a s u r e s th a t h a v e fa c ilita te d th e tra n sfe r a n d su rg e o f re m itta n c e In e x a m i n i n g p re sen ts a g o o d fin d s th a t, in a d d i t i o n to a m o re lib e liz e d a n d d e v e lo p e d e c o n o m y , g o v e r n m e n t p o lic y u se o f re m ittan c es h a v e b ro u g h t ab o u t a in flo w s in to th e co u n try th e C a n a d a - V iet N a m b asis for re m ittan c e u n d e rsta n d in g not co rrid o r, o n ly h o w H e rn a n d e z -C o s s m o n e y is re m itted (2 0 ) from Kemuun u «:’ 1‘overly ĩ»Ar.id C a n a d a , b u t a ls o to so n ic e x te n t th e A c c o rd in g to th e au th o r, th e V ie tn a m e se re m ittan c e tran sfer sy ste m in fo rm al funds tra n sfe r sy stem p lay s an ill g e n e r a l im p o rtan t ro le, th ank s to its “ perceived reliability, reasonable fees, speed and cultural familiarity,” an d is a b l e to e ffe c tiv e ly c o m p e te a g a in st th e fo rm al sy stem , w h ic h is s till in its e a r ly d evelopm ent I lern an d ez-C o ss’s research also provides a useful up-to-date review o f th e V ie tn a m e s e re g u la tio n s o n re m ittan ces I lowever, despite the m ag nitu de o f remittances, there are few quantitative studies th at a llo w m o re u s to fu lly P ia u an d L o n ụ d if f e r e n t V iet N a m an d u n d e rsta n d th e so u rc es a n d im p o rtan tly , h o w 0 ) T h e y th ey (2 0 ) th e E aste rn I Jn ite d h o w th e se p u rp o se s o f th e re m itta n c e s an d , e v e n th ey im p a c t th e e c o n o m y q u estio n s D u rin g th e 1990s, th ere b u ro p e , w h e re m a n y sig n ific a n tly , n e a r th e e n d by e x a m in in g L iv in g S ta n d a rd S u rv e y s (1 9 /1 9 , fin d th at m o s t o f th e re m itta n c e s are S ta te s in c re a se d to a lm o s t % an d a p p ro ach H o u se h o ld in d u str ia liz e d c o u n trie s fro m are u sed from th e U n ite d w a s a sh arp th e re su lts S ta te s a n d o th e r red u ctio n o f re m ittan c es V ie tn a m e s e u s e d to w o rk R e m itta n c e s fro m from aro u n d % o f th e to tal o f 9 /1 9 ,2 0 , in t h e e a r l y th e 1990s o f th e d e c a d e (T a b le E ) Table 4E.3 presents the distribution o f rem ittances across different groups, which su gg est that, on the whole, the an d th at re m itta n c e n o n p o o r re cip ien ts are lik ely tend to receive rem ittances m ore than the p oo r to be K in h /H o a (e th n ic m ajo rity ) h o u se h o ld s rather than ethnic minority groups Table 4E.4 sh o w s the distribution o f remittances throughout the country G eographically, the Red River Delta (w here the national capital, H a Noi, is located) and the Southeast Region (with H o Chi M inh City as its center) are the tw o m ajor regions leading on all scores: population, rem ittances received, and the density o f people receiving remittances In the early 1990s, these tw o regions, which accounted for % o f the population, received alm ost three-quarters o f total rem ittances to the country However, there has been a perceptible shift in the distribution o f remittances, w ith declines in the shares o f these tw o poles and increases in all other regions, notably the N orth Central C oast and M e k o n g River Delta T his shift m ay reflect the fact that du rin g the last decade, the sources o f migrant w ork ers have included the neighboring reg io ns as well T h ere w as also a shift betw een urban and rural areas in general, as illustrated in Figure 4E.5 W hile the share o f rural population has tended to fall gradually (Table E ) , its s h a r e o f total remittances tended to r i s e steadily It is probably because at an early stage, opportunities to go to work abroad might benefit urban people more, o w in g to their advantage in accessing inform ation about ov erseas e m p lo ym ent H ow ever, o v e r t im e the supp ly o f urban labor m ight decline while information bec o m e s m o re widely diffused, leading to an increase in the n u m b er o f migrant w o rk ers from rural areas Figure 4E.5: Distribution of Remittances by Area W /9 2004 9 /9 R ural M Irb a o e p fd u a n d : o n I {2 0 / ĩh e ; 'O w in g Hole o f In te r n a tio n a l R e m it u iiK e s in Ih e V ie tn a m e s e E c o n o m y : F v id e n c e fro m E m p lo y m e n t o j th e h o u seh o ld h e a d (d u m m y variable otherw ise) I if a nonfarm worker, H o u se h o ld size (num ber o f fam i ly m e m b e rs ) □ H o u seh o ld 's a sset (d u m m y variable □ H o u s e h o ld s d ep e n d en cy ratio (num ber o f household m e m b e rs y o u n g e r than 15 a n d o l d e r th a n LJ y e a rs d iv id ed H o u s e h o ld 's r e s id e n c e ( d u m m y by if household o w n s house, otherwise) m e m b e rs 15 - y e a r s o f a g e ) v a r i a b l e =■ i f i n r u r a l a r e a , o t h e r w i s e ) O u r aim is to determ ine w hether or not the variable h it rem has a significant im pact on the poverty status o f the household, i.e., to test w h eth er the coefficient /> in th e re g re ssio n are fro m b T h e e q u a tio n th e 0 a b o v e is s ta t i s ti c a l ly s i g n i f i c a n t T h e d a t a V H L S S T h e d e s c rip tiv e sta tistic s a re s h o w n u sed in th e a n a ly s is i n T a b l e E R e su lts a n d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s re g ressio n re su lts are re p o rted c o e ffic ie n ts h a v e th e e x p e c te d in T ab le E , w h ich s h o w s th at m o st o f th e s ig n s a n d a re sta tistic a lly s ig n ific a n t T h e results s h o w that in all three models, households that receive international rem ittances have a significantly reduced likelihood o f being poor Therefore, re m itta n c e -re c e iv in g h o u se h o ld s are lik ely to h e n o n p o o r In addition, the characteristics o f the household head, such as age and educational level, are key determ inants o f the h ousehold’s poverty status T h e y ou ng er and less educated the h ousehold head is, the higher the probability o f the household bein g poor S im ila rly , te n d s to if be th e h o u se h o ld a b o v e th e head p o v e rty is lin e in v o lv ed ill n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l H o w ev er, s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r in r e l a t i o n to t h e p o v e r t y g e n d e r o f th e sta tu s o f th e fa llin g b e lo w th e p o v erty th e h o u seh o ld h ea d is not a fam ily F u rth e r, la rg e fa m ily s iz e a n d d e p e n d e n c y tio sig n ific a n tly th e h o u s e h o ld w o rk , h o u se h o ld lin e A ls o , h o u s e h o ld s ise th e p o ssib ility in ru r a l a r e a s t e n d o f to b e poorer th an their urban counterparts, which is consistent with the c o m m o n observation in o t h e r c o u n t r i e s T o m e a s u r e th e m a rg in a l im p a c ts o f th e v a rio u s e x p la n a to ry v a ria b le s o n h o u s e h o ld p o v e r ty , w e d e r iv e p a r a m e te r s in T a b le E from th e a b o v e co e ffic ie n ts T h e re su lts s h o w that the probability o f a household beco m ing poor decreases from 3.4 % to 6% (dep end in g on poverty definitions) if the household receives international remittances, su g g e stin g th e im p o rtan t ro le o f re m ittan c es in re d u cin g p o v e rty in V iet N a m T h is result is co m p arable to those in other countries like B angladesh (5 % as found in K a ih a n e t al 0 ) a n d P a k ista n (1 % in A h m e d e t al Ỉ0 ) T h e findings thus confirm that if poor households have m ore opportunity to send w orkers ov ersea s and receive remittances, poverty reduction can be expected In o th er words, to the extent that the global eco no m ic crisis leads to reduced g row th o f m ig ran t w o rk e rs in g e n e r a l , a n d th eir re m ittan c es, a d v e rse c o n se q u e n c e s fo llo w for h o u seh o ld s, Im pacts o f Rem ittances at M a cro and Sector Levels Using a C o m p u ta b le G eneral Equilibrium M odel a T h is th e a n d t h e p o o r , in p a r tic u la r M odel a n d d ata c o m p u ta b le o n e u sed sim u la tio n p u rp o se A by g en eral N g u y e n n e w o f stu d y in g so cial eq u ilib riu m D u e T h a n h a c co u n tin g h o u se h o ld s (C G E ) (2 0 , m atrix in m o r e m o d e l 0 ) (S A M ) d eta il T h e fo llo w s w ith is an th e m a in u p g d e sp ec ifically c o n s u m e r p rice in stru c tu re th e d e sig n e d in d ex o f d ata for for th e is f i x e d at 1.0 to act as the numeraire, m eaning that all prices in the model are adjusted for the c o n su m e r price index D a ta b a se co m p ila tio n For modern C G E models, S A M s play a crucial role, s e rv in g as a co n sisten t an d c o n v e n ie n t d ata b ase to b e u sed for ca lcu latio n A S A M is a c o m p re h e n siv e , e co n o m y -w id e data framework, typically representing the e co n o m y o f a country (L o fgren et al 0 ).2 The present research em plo ys the latest S A M o f V iet N a n i b a s e d o n 0 d ata T h e S A M w a s a n u p g d e o f th e 0 S A M co n stru c ted by the Central Institute for E co no m ic M an agem ent o f Viet N a m and the Nordic Institute o f Asian Studies, formally released in 04 i On the structure and use of SAM, see Reinert and Roland-Host (1997) or Cohen (2002) (or more detailed discussions 1hosewhoareinterestedinthe dfta*5ofthe btềAmayrefer to itsdocumentation byJensei Ift dl (2004) T h e fu lly p ro d u c tio n facto rs d isag g re g ated ac tiv ities (c ap ital an d v e rsio n o f th e w ith 114 c o u n te rp a rt la b o r) an d 10 0 V iet N a m c o m m o d itie s h o u se h o ld g ro u p s In S A M in clu d es ad d itio n , d iv id ed by th e re q u in tile s 112 arc o f tw o in co m e (for rural and urban areas) O th er accou nts are kept simple to concentrate on the effects o n h o u seh o ld s N o rm a lly , w h ich are th e also o rig in al re p o rted S A M in is Jen se n a g g re g a te d et al in to (2 0 ) sev eral T h e se sm aller S A M s are stan d ard n a m e d S A M s, fo llo w in g the n um ber o f aggregated sectors T hey include S A M 31, SA M 19, S A M , and M ac ro S A M (S A M I ) A s an illustration, S A M is exhibited in Table 4E.2 F o r th e p u rp o se s S A M , w h ich w e o f th is p ap er, S A M h e n c e fo r th call S A M 19 has been ag g reg ate d in to a O u r c h o ic e o f se c to r a g g re g a tio n sc v e n -se c to r is p r e s e n t e d in Table 4R.25.1 abels o f sectors in S A M are also used as sector cod es in the m o d e l’s r e p o r t s a p p e a r i n g , in t h i s s tu d y O t h e r e l e m e n t s in S A M are re p o rted sh o u ld in T ab le b e n o ted th at w e fo r in te rn a tio n a l are th e s a m e as th o se o f S A M E C o n c e rn in g use flo w s fro m th e re m ittan c e 19 T h e ir n a m e s a n d d ata in th e a b o v e la b e ls S A M s , it " r e s t o f t h e w o r l d ” t o “ h o u s e h o l d s ’' a s p r o x i e s re m ittan c es With S A M the basic data co m p ilation for the C G E model is complete However, before proceeding to the calculations, w e must specify values o f the behavioral param eters used in the model P a m e te r sp e cific a tio n Identifying behavioral parameters (elasticities) for a C G E m odel is alw ays a difficult ta s k for modelers, especially in the case o f d eveloping countries T h e preferred m ethod to specify the elasticities is to estim ate them directly from an appropriate data set by usin g econom etric techniques Unfortunately, it is usually difficult and costly to obtain tim e series data that are long enou gh for running regressions T herefore, the most c o m m o n ly suggested method is to search for previous econom etric work on similar cases o r to try to guess the best values (S ho ven and W hally 1992) In the present case, certain literature ill which values o f param eters are available is used as a helpful reference T h e y are Shoven and Whally (1992), Fossati (1996), S a p k o ta an d an d D u n g S h a rm a (2 0 ), (1 9 ), T o w n s e n d an d L o fg ren et al a n d (2 0 ) R atn ay a k e (2 0 ), Z h a n g O u r c h o ic e o f elasticities (2 0 ), C h a n fo r th e C G E m odel is reported in Table 4E.3 T h e m o d e l in G A M S To solve for the system o f equations, a program is written in the G eneral A lgebraic M o delin g S ystem (G A M S ) software After ving been able to replicate the e c o n o m y ’s initial eq uilibriu m , w hich is identical to the original SA M 2000 , vve proceed to the sim ulations un d er different scenarios jlobal ( ỉỉvs, il' ỉỉ)iỉỉciỉif *•, ami f’ov* fty If A
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