Phiên bản tiếng Anh của bản báo cáo năng lực cạnh tranh 2010.pdf

Phiên bản tiếng Anh của bản báo cáo năng lực cạnh tranh 2010

The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report

Professor Michael E Porter

Harvard Business SchoolVietnam Competitiveness Report LaunchHanoi, VietnamNovember 30, 2010

The Vietnam Competitiveness Report

assessmentof Vietnam’s competitiveness, using a comprehensiveinternationally-accepted methodology

transparent logic and data

the future of Vietnam’s competitiveness

assessmentof Vietnam’s competitiveness, using a comprehensiveinternationally-accepted methodology

transparent logic and data

the future of Vietnam’s competitiveness

Partners

The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report

• Vietnam’s Economic Position and Development Model• Assessing Vietnam’s Competitiveness

• A Competitiveness Strategy for Vietnam

Vietnam’s Position in 2010

•Resiliencein the face of the global economic crisis

4

Vietnam’s Long-Term Prosperity Growth

1975 - 2009

GDP perCapita,PPP adjusted

in 1990 US$

Doi Moi Reform

Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2010)

Vietnam’s Position in 2010

•Resiliencein the face of the global economic crisis

current development model

•Resiliencein the face of the global economic crisis

current development model

United States

Hong KongAustralia

South KoreaNew Zealand

Prosperity Performance

Selected Countries, 1999 to 2009

PPP-adjusted GDP perCapita, 2009 ($USD)

Source: EIU (2010), authors calculations

Growth of Real GDP per Capita (PPP-adjusted), CAGR, 2000 to 2009

Vietnam’s Labor Productivity

South Korea

PPP-adjusted GDP perEmployee, 1990-$USD

Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2010)$0

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Indonesia

Vietnam’s Current Development Model

• Structural change, fuelled by Vietnam’s integration into the globaleconomy, has been the key driver of Vietnam’s growth

• Foreign investors have combined capital with Vietnamese labor and importedinputs to serve global markets, increasingly also domestic demand

9

Structural Change and Vietnamese Growth

Decomposing Vietnamese Labor Productivity Growth, 2000 - 2008

Source: General Statistics Office, Vietnam; ACI calculations

Drivers of Structural Change: Economic Openness

-6%-4%-2%0%2%

The Growth of the FDI Sector

Growth (2000 = 100)

Profits (return onfixed capital)

Source: Data from General Statistics Office, Vietnam.

# Firms

WorkersFixed Capital

• Structural change, fuelled by Vietnam’s integration into the globaleconomy, has been the key driver of Vietnam’s growth

• Foreign investors have combined capital with Vietnamese labor and importedinputs to serve global markets, increasingly also domestic demand

• FDI and exports create jobs, but have not raised prosperity levels beyond the

low wages in manufacturing

Vietnamese economy in terms of improving productivity and technology

• FDI and exports create jobs, but have not raised prosperity levels beyond the

low wages in manufacturing

Vietnamese economy in terms of improving productivity and technology

prevailing wages

sustained growth

Relative Wages: Selected Countries

South K

ro Manila

South K

ro Manila

a

Vietnam’s Exports By Type of Industry

Processed GoodsSemi-processed GoodsUnprocessed GoodsServices

Processed GoodsSemi-processed GoodsUnprocessed GoodsServices

Source: UNComTrade, WTO (2010)

Vietnam’s Cluster Export Portfolio

1997 - 2009

Footwear (4.67%, 8.21% )

Fishing and Fishing Products

Coal and Briquettes

Agricultural Products

Communications EquipmentEntertainment andReproduction Equipment

Jewelry, Precious Metals andCollectibles

PlasticsBuilding Fixtures

and Equipment

Motor Driven Products

Leather and Related Products

Metals and MiningInformation Technology

Construction MaterialsLighting and

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%

BuildingFixtures,Equipment &

Fishing &Fishing

Products Hospitality

& TourismAgricultural

Transportation& Logistics

Share of World Exports by Cluster

Vietnam, 2008

Vehicles &Defense

Lightning &ElectricalEquipmentInformation

Jewelry &Precious

AnalyticalInstrumentsEducation &

0.5% - 1.5%1.5% - 5%

5% - 10%

Enter-World Market Share

PlasticsOil &

Publishing& Printing

Leather &RelatedProducts

DevicesEducation &

Note: Clusters with overlapping borders have at least 20% overlap (by number of industries) in both directions.

Sporting& Recreation

TechnologyMotor Driven

Mining & MetalManufacturing

• Disruptions that could limitdemand

Vietnam’s Current Development Model

Emerging Weaknesses

19

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Prel.2008

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Prel.2008

Source: Data from General Statistics Office, Vietnam.

Vietnam’s Current Development Model

Emerging Weaknesses

• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit

21

Vietnam’s Currency Valuation

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009Index (2000 = 100)

CPI VN/CPI USA

ExchangeRate Index

Source: 2000-2008 data – WDI; 2009 data – EIU

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009

Vietnam’s Current Development Model

Emerging Weaknesses

• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit

• Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather thancontrol it

• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit

• Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather thancontrol it

Rate of Inflation

Selected Countries, 2000 - 2009

% change in CPI

Source: EIU 2010

VietnamIndonesiaMalaysiaChinaThailand

Vietnam’s Current Development Model

Emerging Weaknesses

• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit

• Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather thancontrol it

• Falling ratio of GDP growth to investment increases the need for capitalinflows to maintain the growth rate

skills and infrastructure

• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit

• Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather thancontrol it

• Falling ratio of GDP growth to investment increases the need for capitalinflows to maintain the growth rate

skills and infrastructure

Ease of Worker Recruitment

Percentage of Firms that report Difficulty in Recruiting

Source: Junichi Mori , Nguyen Thi Xuan Thuy, and Pham Truong Hoang (2009) – data drawn from Japanese-Affiliated

Manufacturers in Asia, JETRO Note: Surveys in 2003-2004 did not include questions about recruitment of general workers

Vietnam’s Current Development Model

Emerging Weaknesses

• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit

• Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather thancontrol it

• Falling ratio of GDP growth to investment increases the need for capitalinflows to maintain the growth rate

skills and infrastructure

• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit

• Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather thancontrol it

• Falling ratio of GDP growth to investment increases the need for capitalinflows to maintain the growth rate

skills and infrastructure

Actively Invested

The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report

• Vietnam’s Economic Position and Development Model

• Assessing Vietnam’s Competitiveness

• A Competitiveness Strategy for Vietnam

• Vietnam’s Economic Position and Development Model

• Assessing Vietnam’s Competitiveness

• A Competitiveness Strategy for Vietnam

Macroeconomic CompetitivenessMicroeconomic Competitiveness

Sophisticationof CompanyOperations and

StrategyQuality of the

Infrastructureand Political

State of ClusterDevelopment

Determinants of Competitiveness

Infrastructureand Political

Endowments

Macroeconomic Competitiveness

• Human development

–Basic education–Health system

• Fiscal policy

–Government surplus/deficit–Government debt

• Human development

–Basic education–Health system

• Fiscal policy

–Government surplus/deficit–Government debt

• Monetary policy

–Inflation

Macroeconomic CompetitivenessMicroeconomic Competitiveness

Sophisticationof CompanyOperations and

StrategyQuality of the

and PoliticalInstitutions

State of ClusterDevelopment

Determinants of Competitiveness

•The internalskills,

capabilities, and managementpractices needed for

companies to attain thehighest level of productivityand innovation possible

Sophisticationof CompanyOperations and

and PoliticalInstitutions

•The internalskills,

capabilities, and managementpractices needed for

companies to attain thehighest level of productivityand innovation possible

Determinants of Competitiveness

•The externalbusinessenvironment conditions thatallow companies to reach highlevels of productivity and

Quality of theNational Business

EnvironmentMacroeconomic CompetitivenessMicroeconomic Competitiveness

Sophisticationof CompanyOperations and

StrategyQuality of the

and PoliticalInstitutions

State of ClusterDevelopment

•The externalbusinessenvironment conditions thatallow companies to reach highlevels of productivity and

and PoliticalInstitutions

Endowments

Quality of the National Business EnvironmentContext for

FirmStrategyand RivalryContext for

FirmStrategyand Rivalry

• Localrules and incentives that

encourage investment and productivity

Open and vigorous local competition

Related andSupportingIndustriesRelated and

• Sophisticated and demanding localcustomers and needs

• Many things matter for competitiveness

• Successful economic development is a process of successive upgrading, in which thebusiness environment improves to enable increasingly sophisticated ways of competing

• Access to high qualitybusinessinputs

• Availability of suppliers and supportingindustries

Determinants of Competitiveness

State of ClusterDevelopment

Macroeconomic CompetitivenessMicroeconomic Competitiveness

Sophisticationof CompanyOperations and

StrategyQuality of the

and PoliticalInstitutions

State of ClusterDevelopment

•A geographicconcentration offirms, specialized assets, andinstitutions in particular fields.

State of ClusterDevelopment

and PoliticalInstitutions

Endowments

The Thai Automotive Cluster: The Activity Dimension

Components and Module Makers(1sttier)

Engines, Drivetrains, Steering, Suspension, Brake, Wheel, Tire,Bodyworks, Interiors, Electronics and Electrical Systems

Components and Module Makers(1sttier)

Engines, Drivetrains, Steering, Suspension, Brake, Wheel, Tire,Bodyworks, Interiors, Electronics and Electrical Systems

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Components and Module Makers(1sttier)

Engines, Drivetrains, Steering, Suspension, Brake, Wheel, Tire,Bodyworks, Interiors, Electronics and Electrical Systems

Components and Module Makers(1sttier)

Engines, Drivetrains, Steering, Suspension, Brake, Wheel, Tire,Bodyworks, Interiors, Electronics and Electrical Systems

Parts (2nd& 3rdtiers)

Stamping, Plastics, Rubber, Machining, Casting, Forging,Function, Electrical, Trimming

Parts (2nd& 3rdtiers)

Stamping, Plastics, Rubber, Machining, Casting, Forging,Function, Electrical, Trimming

Education andTechnicalInstitutionsEducation and

Leather &FabricLeather &

Globally CompetitiveRegionally CompetitiveNationally SignificantNationally Insignificant

Source: Sasin-team analysis, 2003 study

Clusters and Competitiveness

across firms and associated institutions in competition

Stages of National Competitive Development

Shifting Policy Imperatives

Driven Economy

Driven Economy

Investment-Driven Economy

Driven Economy

• Macro, political, and legalstability

• Improving human capital• Efficient basic

encouraging productivity• Cluster formation and

Source: Porter, Michael E., The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Macmillan Press, 1990

• Macro, political, and legalstability

• Improving human capital• Efficient basic

encouraging productivity• Cluster formation and

Vietnam’s Competitiveness Profile

Position Relative to Current Prosperity

National BusinessEnvironment

CompanyOperations and

Country Competitiveness

Rule of Law

National BusinessEnvironment

CompanyOperations and

Significantdisadvantage

Change in Rank, Global Corruption Index, 2009 versus 2005

Corruption Perception Index, 2009

Rank in GlobalCorruption Index,

New ZealandDenmark

IcelandCanada AustraliaNorway

Luxembourg Hong Kong

United Kingdom Japan

Portugal Taiwan

South KoreaHungary Poland

Czech RepublicMalaysia

40Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E PorterVietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM

Change in Rank, Global Corruption Index, 2009 versus 2005

Note:Ranks only countries available in both years (91 countries total)Source: Global Corruption Report, 2009

Change in Rank, Global Corruption Report, 2009 versus 2001

Highcorruption

Context forFirmStrategyand RivalryContext for

FirmStrategyand Rivalry

DemandConditionsVietnam’s National Business Environment

Sizeable and growing market

Low, yet improving,sophisticationof local customers

Weak regulatory quality standardsand enforcement

Basic physical infrastructure in place;low effectiveness of the significantongoing further investments

Solid communication infrastructure as aresult of liberalization and competition

Growing but stillshallow financialsystem; highly volatile and speculative,with limited access to credit for newprivate companies

Education system is growingbutprovides largely insufficient quality;serious shortage of skilled labor

Modest performance on administrativeinfrastructure, but major reforms (e.g.Project 30) under way

Poor innovation infrastructure

High level of openness to foreign investors

WTO/ASEAN liberalization commitmentsbutremaining important barriers

Weak competition policy and enforcement

Unequal competition among companies,with SOEs receiving special treatment

Competition focused on price, not quality

Unclear separation of government role as aregulator from that as an owner

Equitization of SOEs not oriented towardsimproving performance

Related andSupportingIndustriesRelated and

Sizeable and growing market

Low, yet improving,sophisticationof local customers

Weak regulatory quality standardsand enforcement

Basic physical infrastructure in place;low effectiveness of the significantongoing further investments

Solid communication infrastructure as aresult of liberalization and competition

Growing but stillshallow financialsystem; highly volatile and speculative,with limited access to credit for newprivate companies

Education system is growingbutprovides largely insufficient quality;serious shortage of skilled labor

Modest performance on administrativeinfrastructure, but major reforms (e.g.Project 30) under way

Poor innovation infrastructure

Natural emergence of clusters,but focus onnarrow activities with weak presence of localsuppliers and service providers

Shallow roots of FDI in the local economy

Sector-oriented policies ineffective and notsystematically focused on clusters

High level of openness to foreign investors

WTO/ASEAN liberalization commitmentsbutremaining important barriers

Weak competition policy and enforcement

Unequal competition among companies,with SOEs receiving special treatment

Competition focused on price, not quality

Unclear separation of government role as aregulator from that as an owner

Equitization of SOEs not oriented towardsimproving performance

Regulatory Quality: Selected Countries

Composite Measureof Regulatory Quality

Source: World Bank Institute, Global governance indicators, 2009 Values for 1997, 1999 and 2001 have been interpolated.

MalaysiaThailandChinaVietnam