các tác động của cuộc khủng hoảng tại mỹ hoặc eurozone đối với nền kinh tế việt nam e

các tác động khủng hoảng Mỹ Eurozone kinh tế Việt Nam A : The influences of crisis in US and Eurzone on Vietnam’s economy Firstly, it leads to lower export demand The European debt crisis resulted in a series of corollary: slower world economic recovery’s speed, particularly the Eurozone will face unemployment and high inflation, devaluation of the Euro, decline of GDP growth as well as a sharp decrease of people’s real income and consumer demand for import products Discussed this problem, there are some comments that cheap goods are noted as the advantages of Vietnam; therefore, debt crisis may help to direct the Europeans to choose Vietnamese goods as an alternative for luxury and standard goods However,the European debt crisis also leads to a negative impact on export and GDP growth in Vietnam, with a decline of about 1.7% of GDP in 2011, if there are no policies to immediately support, Vietnam's export will face many difficulties Secondly, Vietnam banks’high interest rates will cause disadvantage for the competitiveness of Vietnamese enterprises Due to the fear of the negative impact from the debt crisis, many central banks in developed countries still remain recorded low interest rate in order to stimulate economic recovery and accept inflation in certain extent The basis exchange rate approaching 0% in most countries are: the Federal Reserve (U.S.): 0.25%; ECB (EU): 1%; BOE (UK): 0.5%; Japan 0.1% On the contrary, in Vietnam, the businesses have to loan with interest rates of about 14-16% / year with short term and about 14.5 to 17% / year for the medium term and long term Third, foreign direct investment has been decreased: The European debt crisis could create completely opposite effect on global FDI flows The countries with the level of development equivalent to the EU will benefit from FDI shifted from Europe to these countries when investors want to avoid business income tax which intends to rise in European countries.Meanwhile, the low developing countries as Vietnam are absolutely benefit nothing from the shift FDI due to the gap in the level of technology, while inflows from European investors in these countries declined due to the debt crisis Fourth; gold price is booming: Investors worldwide now regard gold as a safe solution in the context of European debt crisis’ spread, making the gold’sprice increased to $ 1,700 / ounce in recent years Many individuals and organizations in Europe, Asia scrambling to buy gold, platinum and silver reflects the need for more secured solution than notes This will negatively impact the investment worldwide and in Vietnam because when gold accounting for a large proportion in the portfolio of the organizations means that other categories such as stocks ad bonds will be significantly reduced Thus, the indirect investment flows become more limited Fifth, Credit Defaut Spread (CDS) is likely to increase; Greek’problem is making the global investors become more cautious with other countries with similar problems There are warning figures including: too much debt reflected in high debt-to-GDP ratio, excessive spending reflected in the large budget deficit to GDP and decline of GDP growth rate As a result, Vietnam with high debt ratio and chronic budget deficits is considered to be in the category of high-risk countries This would be a huge obstacle in attracting direct and indirect investment capital flows as well as foreign lending Sixth, exchange rate fluctuation become more and more unpredictable: The European debt crisis also creates fluctuations in exchange rates Dollar and especially the yen will continue to rise sharply against the euro thanks to their safety compared to the euro In the context of more serious crisis, the Euro devaluates much compared relatively to the U.S dollar In June, the exchange rate USD / Euro is 1.19, which is very low compared to approximately 1.4 by the beginning of March that will create certain risks in borrowing and exchanging for business importers and exporters as well as for commercial banks’foreign exchange operations.Vietnam with a bias in foreign debt will face this impact of exchange rate in repaying the public debt In terms of loan period, when the majority of these loans are medium-and long-term implementation, there will be high risk in credit and exchange rate.The ability to control inflation depends on the calculation the real exchange rate and the parity purchasing power of the currency in each period So, the gap between the loan and the capital repayment at maturity of foreign loans will be affected by the exchange rate incase of ineffective loan using and management The published data on the public debt shows that the pressure from current Vietnam's public debt is not the most troubling because most of Vietna loans are the medium and long term, low interest rates, ODA loans, loans with fixed interest rates majority This does not mean that Vietnam's public debt is currently still at safety because the statistics are not close and the basis of calculation is not standardized The use of public debt becomes a greater issues in Vietnam We had lessons from ODA management of PMU 18 and its consequences Moreover, Vietnam's public debt management overlaps between many agencies and debt and loan management capacity of local authority with government-guaranteed is still insufficient Therefore, if public debt management is not considered seriously, its consequences to the economy of Vietnam in the future will not be small, especially when Vietnam's economy is rated as high open economy in the world B: The impact of the global Manufacturing The lack of crisis to Vietnamese enterprises capital is enterprises lack illustrated capital: as following: - FDI inflows into Vietnam meet significant decline; In 2011, total registered FDI capital reached 12.9 billion, decreased 16% compared to that in 2010 - Due to Vietnam's high level budget deficit and public investment restrictions - In 2011, the interest rate of the credit organisations to businesses was at an average of 18.3% An increase of 3% compared to 2010 is too high interest causing great pressure on production costs - For agricultural products like rice, aquaculture products with high export turnover currently struggle on the difficulties of output In the first six months of 2012 Vietnam exported 3.3 million tons of rice Cashew’s output in 2010 also decreased by 2030% - For the coffee sector, due to lack of capital, the business now only buy 7-8% against the plan of 200,000 tons inputs prices Rise: The impact of the global financial crisis has led many businesses face many difficulties before the price’s rise of raw material Typically, the items raising price are: • Electricity: March, 2011 increased by 15%, December 2011 5% July 2012 increased by 5% • Gasoline: only in August 2012 increased three times, since early 2012 has been revised up to times • 28-40% rise in coal price 11 Limited output market: Import Markets: The value of imported goods for the whole year of 2008 was estimated at $ 80.4 billion, increased of 28.3% compared to 2007, including: the domestic economic sector reached 51.8 billion U.S dollars, raised by 26.5%,the foreign-invested sector reached $ 28.6 billion, raised by 31.7% Three large-proportion product groups in total imported goods turnover in 2008 are production material (88.8%); consumer goods (up 7.8%) and gold (up 3.4%) However, the import of raw materials for production in the last months of the year tends to be much reduced Meanwhile, imports of consumer goods increased in the last months of the year showed that the foreign consumer goods are putting pressure on the Vietnamese consumer goods at the local market - Export market: Since 2001, Vietnam has established economic development strategy towards export and this strategy has achieved some success However, Vietnam economy has depended too much on exports while exports accounted for 70% of GDP But the current global crisis had a negative impact on Vietnam's exports due to the shrunk of major product market However, in three months of 2011, exports reached about 19% of the plan In those three months, ten export items such as electronics and computer components, seafood, coffee, cashew nuts, crude oil decreased from10-20%, of nearly 50% as rubber, electric cable,etc This proves that Vietnam businesses are strongly influenced by the world economic crisis Corporate bankruptcy and workers’ unemployment: Only in the last few years, there have been 80,000 Vietnam businesses facing bankruptcy and pending bankruptcy since the global economic crisis erupted Only from the beginning of 2012 till now, there has been 49,000 business bankruptcy and dissolution According to the Ministry of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs ‘report, in 2010 there were 190,000 unemployed people in working age, 330,000 people in 2011, 116,000 in the first quarter of 2012 and according to statistics, the first half of 2012 Vietnam's unemployment rate is 2.29% of the working age C: The most affected corporations, companies from the crisis EVN Group: Total electricity value in 2010 was 90,934 billion corresponding to the average electricity price of 1061.4 e / kWh electricity The total cost of electricity production in 2010 was 101,096 billion; corresponding to the cost of electricity production in 2010 is 1180.0 e / kWh electricity Thus, in 2010, EVN's electricity production’s loss was1062 billion dong This loss does not include losses to loss / profit in joint-stock companies within EVN contribution Cost is "suspended" and has not been calculated into the cost of EVN's electricity production in 2010 included losses from exchange rate differences (15 463 billion) and the cost of managing the remaining rural grid (356 billion contract) Investing in other industries is 4551 billion equivalent to 4.13% of charter capital Vinashin Group: According to the inspection results, assets and funds of Vinashin at the end of 31/12/2009 is 102.000 billion, excluding the internal debt which is more than 92 500 billion Up to present, Vinashin's liabilities are more than 86,700 billion Notably, according to the results of the audited financial statements in 2009, Vinashin lost nearly 1,700 billion, but by inspectional investigation determined by the Government,the actual group's losses amounted to nearly 5000 billion, more than 3,300 billion compared with the audit report In addition, the Government Inspectorate also found out that Vinashin has about 8,500 billion potential losses, including nearly 2,800 billion cost of unfinished business of the shipbuilding contracts which have been canceled; difference from other receivables internal revenue which cannot identify the object to be collected closely to 4,700 billion and 1,000 billion penalty and interest on the deposit for the ship-owners due toVinashin violation of the contracts Vinalines Corporation: The Government Inspectorate has announced a range of issues in business activity and results of Vinalines in period 2007 - 2010 In particular, the biggest problems are: buying a great number of old ships, involving in many ship’s arrests, constructing without considering carefully in addition to the wrong financial planning and investment principles These errors, along with a number of factors, have led to poor business results, with total losses in the two years from 2009 to 2010 to more than 1686 billion Other financial indicators are of great concern Investment capital in other fields of Vinalines is 672 billion equivalent to10.37% of the charter capital Petrolimex Corporation: State Auditor (SAV) said it has audited and issued 2011audit reports and financial statements at Petrolimex Based on that, this business’ loss is 2604 billion dong, mainly due to exchange rate differences More specifically, according to the consolidated financial statements of Petrolimex,the profit before tax for the year 2011 lost 1423 billion dong including loss amount of oil business sector is 2,358 billion (of which loss amount of oil and gas business is 2604 billion), interest of joint stock companies and other businesses and consolidation by offsetting financial statements is 935 billion There were1423 billion losses excluding 949 billion losses due to the revaluation of financial investments, investment securities at the time of the 100% state-owned enterprises turned into joint-stock companies D: Governmental attempts affecting financial performance of enterprises in Vietnam Suitable exchange rate policies for anti-inflation Recent modifications in exchange rate policy have shown attempts of narrowing the gap between official exchange rate and that in free market, which helps to balance supply-demand relationship and reduces foreign currency retention and speculation in the economy Those are necessary and accurate modifications that meet actual needs in governmental management and in business as well as match principles of monetary theories Adjustments in operating interest rate and ceiling mobilization interest rate The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has released its notice on the adjustments in operating interest rate and deposit interest rate This decision is released while liquidity of banks is surplus; market interest rate tends to decrease and inflation tends to decrease as well Accordingly, interest rate for refund decreases from 13%/year to 12%/year; lending interest rate for interbank electronic transaction declines from 14%/year to 13%/year; interest rate for re-discount decreases from 11%/year to 10%/year Maximum interest rate for untermed and termed deposit in VND under month drops from 4%/year to 3%/year; maximum interest rate for termed deposit more than month drops from 12%/year to 11%/year Particularly, local people’s credit fund determines the maximum interest rate for termed deposit of more than month to decrease from 12,5%/year to 11,5%/year 3 Tax policies: Tax exemption, reduction, break, extension and the adjustment of reducing import tariff for some certain goods groups that are input materials for production, not domestically produced or not sufficient for demand are important financial policy assisting enterprises to overcome difficulties, stimulating production and business Reduction of state budget deficit and public expenditure According to inspection report on the implementation of estimated state budget in 20011, estimate and plan of state budget allocation in 2012 of the Committee for Finance and State Budget of National Assembly, although the Resolution No 11/NQ-CP focuses on the reduction of public expenditure, saving an additional 10% of regular expenditure (apart from saving 10% of estimate from the beginning of the year), the total expenditure of state budget still exceeds 9,7% of estimate (70,400 billion VND) and this is a considerable increase The Government plans to allocate 9,100 billion VND from the increase of state budget collection in order to reduce state budget deficit in 2011, to 111,500 billion VND equivalent to 4,9% of GDP, a decrease of 4% compared to the estimate from the beginning of the year Economic structure transformation: The Government is gradually implementing the program of transforming agricultural economic structure under the direction of goods production (developing material regions, aquaculture planting; developing ecotourism sites; and specializing in production areas suiting geographic and natural conditions…) and application of high technology – Promotion of anti-corruption campaign According to assessment of the Global Transparency Organization, Vietnam is ranked as the country with high corruption in the world Some serious economic cases recently uncovered have revealed attempts of Vietnamese government in its anti-corruption campaign Objective of this phase is to clean public servants and make the finance and economic relationships better, fight against group interest E: Solutions for improvement of economic effectiveness after crisis 1- Flexible and effective management of the government in monetary policies To facilitate enterprises in capital access, adjust export tariff as well as import tariff of some goods in order to avoid negative chain events to the domestic market and prove solutions for timely preventing and settling them from returning, the Government should strictly manage the foreign currency transaction in free market in order to prevent foreign currency speculation and pressure on exchange rate, through the State Bank implement its profession on selling foreign currency in order to decrease and stabilize exchange rate in market, facilitating enterprises to import equipment…supporting enterprises to extend their production and export, stimulating domestic enterprises in developing their production and export, stabilizing people’s life The State should use its micromanagement tool in order to adjust and make domestic production develop quickly, strongly, qualitatively, suit people’s taste in this difficult time, stimulate enterprises to develop their markets and promote business and export 2- Governmental directions helping enterprises: It is necessary to diversify forms of export, pay more attention on distribution channels in importing countries, hold fairs, promote trade marks, promote images of Vietnamese enterprises Besides, the Government also should support big enterprises to open their representative offices in big and good markets for ease of knowing information, determining customers and seeking customers, monitoring market situations, minimizing risks to the exporters, quickly accessing markets, exploiting competitive advantages of Vietnamese enterprises and exporting such advantages to local countries with higher competitive advantages 3– Higher cooperation and business relation of enterprises: To utilize opportunities and exploit new markets in this global crisis, enterprises must try to minimize expenditure, save and unite together in order to overcome such difficult time Enterprises should form clubs, raise the common voices to international partners, avoid competition in buying and selling in domestic market leading damage to enterprises, set proper plans and directions, cooperate, unite to form strength in comparative advantages Role of profession associations in diversity of unification forms should be improved Besides, they should establish financial support funds, scientific research fund in order to implement their common research projects, promote cooperation in stead of competition, share markets, seeking new markets such as the Middle East, Egypt… Our strong products like rice, tea, aqua products, vegetables, clothes…is entering such markets but with limited scale Enterprises should grasp information, timely and quickly treat information Such markets are very potential to enterprises In this crisis period, enterprises should create their opportunities, cooperate, unite, determine long term business, confirm their potentials and trademarks on market 4- Expenditure cut down policies of the Government and enterprises to overcome difficulties: Impacts of global crisis cause difficulties to export To help enterprises avoid production and export delay, contract termination due to lack of finance, the Government has directed banks to group loans, extend loans and continue lending Besides, series of strict measures have been applied in order to control inflation by fiscal policies, reducing loans in real estate and securities, limiting cash flow, allowing temporary delay or renewal in construction of some ineffective capital investment projects, concentrating capital for projects with visible economic outputs such as power plants, oil refineries…at the same time limiting loss of tax, promoting collection of tax and overdue loans 5-Support of domestic customers should not be neglected: Enterprises should save themselves, not just waiting We have to be confidents of us with the motto “Vietnamese people should use Vietnamese products” With national spirit, domestic customers are willing to use products made in Vietnam with pride Domestic market is easy and it understands this difficult time Contribution and use of Vietnamese products show patriotism For the awareness of customers to such issue, enterprises should be responsible for ensure quality of good products and respect customers 6- Clearance of investment environment: Domestic enterprises and international businessmen should unit to establish enterprises and operate better than previous enterprises in order to attract investment and promote production capacity and extend markets of products, stabilize markets, limit inflation To achieve such goal, micra-policies should facilitate investors at the same time local policies should be clear from administrative procedures; infrastructure system should be updated and repaired for completion; localities should prepare highly qualified prior to calling for investment to areas that are strength of the localities; policies should be favorable to attract investors CONCLUSION The 2008 global economic crisis occurring in the USA has caused the most serious consequences since the WWII Many big enterprises, groups declared bankruptcy causing serious shock in American and regional markets In such situations, Governments have adopted measures to overcome economic downturns through solutions of financial policies and fiscal policies For Vietnam, the global financial crisis not only reduces export rate, domestic and international investments but also cause many enterprises go into bankruptcy In such situation, Vietnamese Government has applied many policies to assist enterprises overcome crisis such as tax extension, tax reduction, capital support…On the other hand, the flexibility of enterprises should be taken into account They know how to take advantages of the Governmental supports and their internal force to overcome difficulties Besides achievements, it is necessary to state that some enterprises still find it difficult to access capital sources from banks Therefore, the Government should have policies to support enterprises with faster capital to overcome difficulties The global economic crisis has caused great challenges to countries, particularly developing countries For Vietnam, it receives less serious impact of this crisis making Vietnam market stable and attractive to domestic and international investors Therefore, Vietnamese Government and enterprises should have policies and solutions to stimulate domestic investment and attract foreign investment That is the great advantages for Vietnam to develop in the years to come ... local market - Export market: Since 2001, Vietnam has established economic development strategy towards export and this strategy has achieved some success However, Vietnam economy has depended too... customers 6- Clearance of investment environment: Domestic enterprises and international businessmen should unit to establish enterprises and operate better than previous enterprises in order to... interest rate and ceiling mobilization interest rate The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has released its notice on the adjustments in operating interest rate and deposit interest rate This decision