Cost benefit analysis of a mangrove restoration program as a climate change impact mitigation strategy in de gi lagoon, binh dinh province

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY CHARLES NYANGA COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF A MANGROVE RESTORATION PROGRAM AS A CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT MITIGATION STRATEGY IN DE GI LAGOON IN BINH DINH PROVINCE MASTER THESIS KHANH HOA – 2018 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY CHARLES NYANGA COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF A MANGROVE RESTORATION PROGRAM AS A CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT MITIGATION STRATEGY IN DE GI LAGOON IN BINH DINH PROVINCE MASTER THESIS Major Marine Based-Ecosystems Management and Climate Change Code Topic Allocation Decision Decision on establishing the Committee Defense Date Supervisors: Professor: Curtis Jolly Professor: Kim Anh Nguyen Thi Chairman of the Committee Professor: Le Kim Long Faculty of Graduate Studies KHANH HOA – 2018 UNDERTAKING I undertake that the thesis entitled: “Cost Benefit Analysis of the Mangrove Restoration Programme as a Climate Change Mitigation Strategy in De Gi Lagoon in Binh Dinh Province”, is my own work The work has not been presented elsewhere for assessment until the time this thesis is submitted Khanh Hoa, 19th Jun, 2018 Charles Nyanga Author iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I, Charles Nyanga, wish to acknowledge the financial support from the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD) through the Norwegian Programme for Capacity Development in Higher Education and Research for Development (NORHED) for the International Master of Science in Marine Based Ecosystems Management and Climate Change (MEMACC) I also wish to acknowledge funding from NORAD for the full scholarship which was granted to me to enable me to pursue the International MSc (MEMACC) I also express my gratitude to the Ministry of Education and Training of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam for the material and financial support through the Faculty of Graduate Studies of Nha Trang University and the Department of External Cooperation (DEC) I, wish to acknowledge the Department for Agriculture and Rural Development of Binh Dinh Province for the assistance they rendered during the data collection exercise Special thanks go to Professor Kim Anh Nguyen of Nha Trang University, Viet Nam and Professor Curtis Jolly of Auburn University, United States of America for their advice, patience, guidance, motivation and expert knowledge which enabled me to complete my research and write my thesis successfully Further, all my lecturers from Nha Trang University (Viet Nam), University of Tromso (Norway), University of Bergen (Norway), University of Ruhuna (Sri Lanka) and Bogo University (Indonesia) deserve to be acknowledged for the contributions in preparing me for the thesis work I wish also to thank you my family, my parents, my brothers and sisters, my wife and my children for the spiritual support they have rendered to me throughout my study period Lastly my thanks go to my classmates for the encouragement and enthusiasm they have endowed into me My special thanks go to Loi To Thi Bich for allowing me to use her data for my report Khanh Hoa, 19th Jun, 2018 Charles Nyanga Author iv TABLE OF CONTENTS UNDERTAKING iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv TABLE OF CONTENTS v LIST OF SYMBOLS vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS viii LIST OF FIGURES .x LIST OF TABLES xi LIST OF APPENDICES xii ABSTRACT xiv CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background information 1.2 The Problem Statement .4 1.3 Objectives of the research study CHAPTER LITERATURE REVIEW .6 2.1 Ecosystems Goods and Services (EGS) - free goods and services from nature 2.2 The benefits of Natural Capital – the ecosystems goods and services 2.3 Drivers of changes in ecosystems 2.4 Historical trends in mangrove deforestation and restoration in Viet Nam – 1940s to 2015 .10 2.5 Methods of Mangrove Ecosystems Valuation – a conceptual framework 13 2.6 Methods of carrying of out CBA 13 2.7 Procedure of carrying out CBA – an analytical framework 15 2.8 Examining Community Participation in Mangrove Restoration - an application of the Tobit Regression Model 15 2.9 National Mangrove Restoration Programs in Viet Nam 16 2.7 Mangrove Restoration, Development and Climate Change 19 CHAPTER RESEARCH METHODS 20 3.1 Research approaches 20 3.2 Method of estimating willingness to pay (WTP) 20 3.3 Mathematical Models for Performing Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) 21 3.4 Mathematical Models for performing discounted cash flow (DCF) 24 3.5 Tobit Regression Model – a theoretical background 24 3.6 The determination of sample size 26 v 3.7 The research process 27 3.8 The methods to attain the objectives 29 3.9 Research Tools Utilised to Attain the Objectives 30 3.10 Study Site 31 3.11 Data synthesis/analysis 33 CHAPTER RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 34 4.1 Results from Focus Group Discussions 34 4.2 Results from Expert Opinion Interviews .35 4.3 Results from research data - Biographical information 35 4.4 Results from research data - Calculation of cost benefit analysis of aquaculture 39 4.5 Results from research data - Cost-benefit analysis of mangrove restoration programmes 42 4.6 Results from meta-analysis, synthesis of past research results and citations .50 4.7 Results from citations – providing evidence in support of mangrove restoration 53 4.8 Results from research data - Climate change awareness and understanding of implication of good mitigation practices in communities around De Gi Lagoon 54 CHAPTER :CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 56 5.1 Conclusions 56 5.2 Recommendations 57 5.3 Future of research work in De Gi lagoon mangrove restoration as a climate change mitigation strategy 58 REFERENCES 59 APPENDICES 67 vi LIST OF SYMBOLS AM Arithmetic mean 𝝱 a vector of factors 𝝱o the intercept 𝝱j parametric estimate of the jth variable C0 initial cash outlay CFi Cash flow occurring at the end of the period i CO2 carbon dioxide e margin of error € Euro hetare I Initial investment km kilometer n sample size N Total number of households pH potential of Hydrogen (acidity or basicity) q number of variables or regressors r cost of capital used as a discount rate NaCl Sodium Chloride t life of the project US$ United States dollar Xi a vector of independent variables, the regressors Yi the dependent variable, the regressand Yi * the latent variable the sum from i=1 to the tth value vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ACCCRN Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations BAU Business as Usual BCR Benefit Cost Ratio BFT Benefit transfer BMZ The Germany Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development CBA Cost-Benefit Analysis CICES Common International Classification of Ecosystems Services CIEM Central Institute for Economic Management CIT Citation CP Change in production CVM Contingent Valuation Method DERG Development Economics Research Group DESA-SD Department of Economic and Social Affairs – Statistics Department EGS Ecosystems Goods and Services EU European Union EVC Economic Value Coefficients FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FCR Feed Conversion Ratio GHG Green House Gases GoV Government of Viet Nam GRETL GNU Regression, Enometrics, Time-series Library GSO General Statistical Office of Viet Nam IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature IRR Internal Rate of Return MA Meta-Analysis MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development MEA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MEMACC Marine Based Ecosystems Management and Climate Change viii MFF Mangrove for the Future MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment MV Market value NGO Non-Governmental Organization NMV – SP Non-Market Valuation method NORAD Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation NORHED Norwegian Programme for Capacity Development in Higher Education and Research for Development NPV Net Present value NTU Nha Trang University PES Payment for Ecosystems Services ProEcoServ Project for Ecosystems Services PVB Present value of benefits SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SEA Southeast Asia SES Synthesis of existing studies TEV Total Economic Value UN United Nations USD United States Dollar VND Viet Nam Dong WRI World Resources Institute WTP Willingness to pay WWF World Wide Fund for Nature ix LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Pressures on mangroves forests Figure 2.2: An example of mangrove deforestation trends in the Philippines (19702000) Figure2.3: Mangrove cover trends in Viet Nam between 1943 and 2008 11 Figure 3.1: Map of study site – De Gi Lagoon 31 Figure 4.1: Respondents by commune and respondents’ income (n =150) 36 Figure 4.2: Number of people and dependents in Household (n =150) 36 Figure 4.3: Employment status of respondents (n = 150) 37 Figure 4.4: Educational level of respondents and age of the respondents (n = 150) 38 Figure 4.5: Marital status of respondents and gender of the respondents (n = 150) 38 Figure 4.6: Mangrove contribution to fisheries 52 Figure 4.7 : Effects which responses have been informed by government (n =150) 54 Figure 4.8: Effects which have been observed by the community members (n =150) 55 x Appendix 10.5 Source: General Statistical Office of Viet Nam (GSO, 2016) 78 Appendix 11: Questionnaire QUESTIONNAIRE We are postgraduate students in the Faculty of Graduate at Nha Trang University As part of our Master in Marine Ecosystems Management and Climate Change theses, we are conducting research under the supervision of Professor Dr Kim Anh Nguyen, Professor Margrethe Aanesen and Professor Curtis Jolly We are inviting you to participate in our study The purpose of the studies are to Evaluate the Economic Benefits of Mangrove Restoration in the Light of Climate Events and Cost Benefit Analysis of Mangrove Restoration Programme as a Climate Change Mitigation Strategy in De Gi Lagoon The methods will involve administering questionnaires and holding FGDs The benefits of this study to arrive at a recommendation for academic purposes but policy makers can use as well There are no risks involved and your participation is voluntary Confidentiality and anonymity is assured And in case your work is quoted no reference to your identity will be made PART A SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUND INFORMATION (THÔNG TIN CHUNG) In this section of the questionnaire you are required to provide your biographical as well as socio-economic information Your information is specifically for statistical applications only What is your gender?  Male  Female Marital status (Tình trạng nhân):  Single  Married  Others What is your age?  From 15 to under 20 yrs  From 20 to under 30 yrs  From 30 to under 50 yrs  More than 50 yrs What is the educational level you completed?  None  Primary  Secondary  Technical institute  College  University  Others; Specify: …………… 79 What is your employment status?  Self-employed – other business  Government worker  Private company employee  Farmer; specify: ………………  Retiree  Others; specify: ……………… Number of people who live in the household: Number of people who depend on the household for the sustenance :…… What is your total annual income (sum total of income like: wages, salaries, pensions, interest on savings, and any others):  Under 100,000,000 VND  From 100,000,000 VND to under 200,000,000 VND  From 200,000,000 VND to under 300,000,000 VND  From 300,000,000 VND to under 400,000,000 VND  From 400,000,000 VND to under 500,000,000 VND  More than 500,000,000 VND Which is your commune?  My Thanh  My Cat  Cat Minh  Cat Khanh  My Chanh PART B: CLIMATE CHANGE For how long have you been living in this area?  Under years  From to under 10 years  From 10 to under 20 years  From 20 to under 30 years  More than 30 years Have you heard about climate change?  Yes  No If yes (question 2), where have you received your information on climate change?  TV/ radio  Newspapers  Government information brochure  Conferences/community meetings  Others, specify:…………………… What effects or changes have you been informed about ? 80  Salt water intrusion  Disappearance of some species  Changes in temperature  Change in pH  Increased frequency of tornadoes  Increased erosion  Others, specify: …………………… Do you think climate change has affected De Gi Lagoon  Yes  No If yes (question 5), what effect have you observed? or been informed about  Salt water intrusion  Disappearance of some species  Changes in temperature  Change in pH  Increased frequency of tornadoes  Increased erosion  Others, specify: …………………… If yes (question 5), you think these changes have affected your income?  Yes  No  Not sure If yes (question 7), can you estimate the loss of income from aquaculture and fishery?  Less than 10%  From 10% to under 20%  From 20% to under 30 %  From 30% to 40%  From 40% to 50% More than 50% If yes (question 7), will you support government efforts which will mitigate these impacts of climate change on your income?  Yes  No  Not sure 10 Do you think mangrove restoration will be a good strategy for climate change mitigation and adaptation for De Gi Lagoon?  Yes  No  Not sure 11 If yes (question 10), in what ways you think mangrove forest restoration will be a good strategy for climate change mitigation and adaptation for De Gi Lagoon?  Stabilization of salinity levels 81  Removal of toxins  CO2 sequestration Prevention of mud intrusion  Control of pH level  Others, specify: …………… PART C: ECOLOGY AND BIODIVERSITY What you think is the current state of biodiversity in De Gi Lagoon?  Extremely degraded  Moderately degraded  Degraded  Not degraded Have you observed any changes in the structure of the wetland of De Gi Lagoon in the past 10 years?  Yes  No If yes (question 2), what structural changes have you observed?  Mud water intrusion  Reduction in mangrove forest area  Change in the growth pattern of mangrove  Others, specify:………… Do you understand the function of a wetland  Yes  No  Not sure If yes (question 4), in the past 10 years, have you observed any changes in the function of the wetland in De Gi Lagoon?  Yes  No  Not sure If yes (question 5), what type of changes have you observed?  Not able to give enough income  Not able to support some of the species of animal life  Increase in disease amongst the fish species  Others, specify: …………… Do you agree that mangrove forests support biodiversity?  Yes  No  Not sure If yes (question 7), in which ways you think mangrove forests support biodiversity? 82  As breeding ground for species  As a brooder for juveniles (  Removal of toxins from the water  Others, specify: ……………… Do you think that mangrove conservation and restoration will increase the benefit you receive?  Yes  No  Not sure 10 If yes (question 9), which benefits will be increased? (Select all which will apply)?  Increased species  Increased quantity of fish for harvest  Reduced diseases  Others, specify: …………………… PART D: BENEFITS FROM MANGROVE FOREST AND THEIR BIODIVERSITY Which one of the following benefits from the mangrove forest area is important for you? Benefits None Seafood Income from fishing Aquaculture Recreation Forestry products Research Habitat for wildlife and bird species Flood and storm protection Benefits for future generation Other, specify: …………… 83 Some Plenty Do not know PART E: AQUACULTURE BENEFITS AND COSTS What aquaculture production methods you use?  Intensive  Extensive Do you grow mangroves around your ponds?  Yes  No What is the area of your pond? ……………… For how long have you been an aquaculture farme? How much you earn from aquaculture every month on average?  Less than 1,000,000 VND  From 1,000,000VND to 3,000,000 VND  From 3,000,000 VND to 5,000,000 VND From 5,000,000 VND to 10,000,000 VND  More than 10,000,000 VND Aquaculture cost – What is the annual costs of each of the production items below? No Items Seeding Feeding Pond mainternance and improvement Cost of rent Labor cost Others Total cost Shrimp Fish Crab Others Total Harvest – Can you provide details of your harvest? No Items Harvest (kg) Selling price Income from harvest Shrimp 84 Fish Crab Others Total PART F FISHERY BENEFITS AND COSTS (the mangove wetland) For how long have you been a fisher? How much you earn from fishery every month?  Less than 1,000,000 VND  From 1,000,000VND to 3,000,000 VND  From 3,000,000 VND to 5,000,000 VND From 5,000,000 VND to 10,000,000 VND  More than 10,000,000 VND Fishery – Can you fill in the annual production details in the table below No Species (Loài) Harvest(kg/day) Price Number of days Income (VND/kg) Crab Juvenile crab Shrimp Fish Oyster Others Total Fishery cost – Can you fill in the cost items of your catch in the table below? No Items Fishing materials Equipment depreciation Fuel cost Labor cost Cost in VND Total PART G: MANGROVE RESTORATION Have you heard about mangrove forest restoration programme in De Gi Lagoon?  Yes  No 85 Do you approve that the mangrove protection and restoration programme should take place in De Gi Lagoon?  Absolutely approve  Approve  Neutral/abstain  Disapprove  Absolutely disapprove How important are the following reasons for protecting and restoring the mangroves in De Gi Lagoon? Reasons for mangrove Absolutely Very restoration and important Important protection Mangrove forests are a source of goods which support local livelihoods Mangrove forests are a source of services which support local livelihoods Mangrove forest are a source of recreational services Mangrove forest are a source of regulating 86 Important Not important Absolutely not important services, such as storm protection, flood protection, erosion Mangrove forest are a good filter of sediments Mangrove forests are a good carbon sink Mangrove forests may provide benefits for future generations Mangrove forests can serve as a laboratory for academic research Mangrove forest provide habitats and breeding ground for several plants and organisms WTP - Are you willing to pay for mangrove protection and restoration in De Gi Lagoon?  Yes  No If yes (question 4), how much are you as a maximum willing to pay per hectare?  Less than 50,000 VND, how much ……  50,000 VND  100,000 VND  150,000 VND  200,000 VND  300,000 VND  400,000 VND  500,000 VND  More than 500,000 VND; how much …… If yes (question 4), what is the reason for your willingness to pay 87  Beneficial to my family  Beneficial to my community  Beneficial to the future generations  It is an interesting program  Others, specify:…………  Not sure What methods of collection of the payment you prefer?  Included in electricity bill  Included in the water bill  Included in the land rates  Cash payment per month  Others, specify:………… If no (question 4), what is the reason for not?  My family doesn’t have any money for this contribution  I don’t believe that this program will have any good results  I think it is Government responsibility  I think this program is not important  I don’t get any benefit from mangrove forest  I think my payment is not necessary for this program  Others, specify:………  Not sure 88 Appendix 12: FGD Topic Guide FGDs TOPIC GUIDE TOPIC 1: MANGROVE RESTORATION In the past 19 years have there been any mangrove restoration programme in De Gi lagoon and who was involved? What kind of co-activities in the form of workshops were undertaken? What has been the response by communities? What were the sources of funding and what were the levels of funding? What were the benefits and costs from mangrove restoration program? TOPIC 2: ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT OF MANGROVE ECOSYSTEM What management practices has the government put in place, if any? What are the communities contributing in form of co-management? TOPIC 3: AQUACULTURE DEVELOPMENT Land use for aquaculture – How much land is being used for aquaculture at present? Income – What is the production capacity of the Binh Dinh, De Gi and other lagoons in VND? Quantity of harvest – What is the production output in aquaculture, fisheries of Binh Dinh province Cost – What are the costs involved in aquaculture and fisheries? Benefit of mangrove restoration on aquaculture TOPIC 4: MAJOR CHALLENGES OF MANGROVE RESTORATION What are the major sources of threats to the mangrove restoration programme? What are the natural threats? What are the anthropogenic threats? How may these challenges be dealt with? TOPIC 5: PERCEIVED BENEFITS FROM MANGROVE RESTORATION Do the communities think that the restoration programmes are beneficial? Do the community members agree that the mangrove restoration should take place in De Gi Lagoon? TOPIC 6: GLEANING Are there activities like wood and timber harvest? Are there charcoal making activities? 89 Appendix 13: Expert Opinion Interview Guide EXPERT OPINION INTERVIEW GUIDE I GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL Do you think the introduction of no-take zone and partial closures will produce benefits to the fisheries and aquaculture in De Gi Lagoon wetlands? (fishery) What conservation benefits can good aquaculture practices produce? (fishery) What chronic anthropogenic stressors have you observed on the wetlands and what measures, if any, have you put in place to overcome these stressors? (anthropogenic effects) Have you got a programme which identifies the spread of existing and emergence wetland pathogens; and you have any strategies to mitigate and manage the effects? (anthropogenic/climate change) Have you developed any conservation targets and procedures for the recovery of biodiversity lost? (mangrove ecosystem) What you think are the implications of climate change for De Gi Lagoon wetland in terms of sea level rise and what improvement could restoration measures have on the wetland ecosystem health? (Climate change) Have you provided critical messages, concepts and skills to improve the understanding by the communities of climate change and climate change related wetland conservation? (climate change) Have you carried out a mapping exercise of areas of species migration which maybe caused by climate change impact? (climate change) Do you have any methods and tools to engage the community members in wetland ecosystem conservation? (ecological citizenship) 10 What you think are the most critical messages, concepts and skills that should be communicated to the community members in order to enhance ecological citizenship? (policy) 11 Do you think good policy making and evaluation of wetland climate change cumulative impacts can improve conservation in De Gi Lagoon wetland? (Policy) 90 Appendix 8: FGD and Expert Opinion Interview consent sheet FGD, EXPERT OPINION INTERVIEW AND PRE-TEST CONSENT SHEET We are postgraduate students in the Faculty of Graduate at Nha Trang University As part of our Master in Marine Ecosystems Management and Climate Change theses, we are conducting research under the supervision of Professor Dr Kim Anh Nguyen, Professor Margrethe Aanesen and Professor Curtis Jolly We are inviting you to participate in our study The purpose of the studies are to Evaluate the Economic Benefits of Mangrove Restoration in the Light of Climate Events and Cost Benefit Analysis of Mangrove Restoration Programme as a Climate Change Mitigation Strategy in De Gi Lagoon The methods will involve administering questionnaires and holding FGDs The benefits of this study to arrive at a recommendation for academic purposes but policy makers can use as well There are no risks involved and your participation is voluntary Confidentiality and anonymity is assured And in case your work is quoted no reference to your identity will be made NO NAME PLACE DATE 91 COMMENTS/ SIGNATURE ANSWRES 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 92 ... objective of this research project is to carry out a cost- benefit analysis (CBA) of a mangrove restoration programme as a climate change mitigation strategy in De Gi Lagoon in Binh Dinh Province To achieve...MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY CHARLES NYANGA COST- BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF A MANGROVE RESTORATION PROGRAM AS A CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT MITIGATION STRATEGY IN DE. .. Rhizophoraceae Rhizophora Spotted mangrove K candela Rhizophoraceae Kandelia Oriental mangrove Avicennia alba Acanthaceae Avicennia Api api C decandra Rhizophoraceae Ceriops Flat leaved spurred mangrove