Tác động của cuộc khủng hoảng từ khu vực kinh tế chung châu âu đến hoạt động đầu tư và thị trường tài chính châu á eng

Tác động khủng hoảng từ khu vực kinh tế chung Châu Âu đến hoạt động đầu tư thị trường tài Châu Á Research Report: "THE IMPACTING OF CRISIS FROM EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AREA TO INVESTING ACTIVITIES AND FINANCIAL ASIA MARKETS" How has The European debt crisis begun? Why Asia should care about the the euro zone’s crisis? How the European debt crisis affect to financial markets? Why did bond yields rise in response to this crisis, and what does this function contains mean? Does Faith Crisis of Europe has spread to Asia? You said: "Asian dollar may not be the right choice"? ANSWER Through the report:"IMPACT OF CRISIS FROM EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AREA TO INVESTING ACTIVITIES AND FINANCIAL ASIA MARKETS” The European debt crisis has begun to like? The European debt crisis is a short term for the struggle (effort) of the European to pay about debt which arising from the recent decade Five of the countries in the region including (Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain) have failed to promote economic growth which enough to help countries is able to return to the bond holders, to ensure compliance with its plans Looking at the overall picture of the debt crisis, these countries are "irresponsible", they borrowed too much, and then uncontrolled expense to satisfy the needs of the people, due to enjoy preferential interest rates as a member of the European common currency Among 17 eurozone bloc countries, countries as Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland were the countries with the highest incidence of debt Of which, the first large is Greek which borrowing nearly half times the size of the economy, we can see detail in the following statistics of the IMF and the ranks of prestigious organizations such as Moody's, Standard and Poor, Fitch Page | The latest data was updated on 10/2012 of the report: "Global Financial Stability Report" report on global economic stability of the international monetary fund IMF, Greece's debt ratio up to 171%, Aixen 118%, Italy 126%, Portugal 119% In addition to the interim government in the state of high debt, these countries have under pressure of the highly unemployment rate, such as in Spain up to more than 20%, the productivity of the overall economy is low, real estate bubble the country conceals the numbers of financial statements, a series of unsustainable fiscal policies of the countries in Europe, as the economy is slow, the tax revenues is less also- this make the high budget deficit is not sustainable When condition of debt is no longer hide, investors react by profit requirements (interest rate) higher than the bonds of borrowing countries, notably Greece, increases debt burden and lead to require a series bailout package of European Union and the European Central Bank (ECB) With weak economies such as Greece, to be in the common currency in European zone, this is the alliance rather than monetary financial alliance, so there are bound to strict rules, while the Greece can not devaluing its currency, can not be converted financing from external and can not reduce unemployment by regional labor migration in the European Union Can not balance its debt by printing more money The only result is in crisis! Some people believe that Japan has debt/GDP can record high of 225.9%, may is a 2nd Greece, but Japanese will not Greek because 95% of Japanese government bonds by the people of this state holding, anh they was not under pressure from the outside, whereas 70% of Greek government debt held by foreigners Besides, Japan is the self-exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves of Japan is also very high and safe 1,274.160 million USD (10/2012) while the mass of the Eurozone only 903027 million, according to the IMF and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves Why Asia should care about the crisis of the euro zone? a The impact of the European Union regional crisis - Shocks for the stability of the financial markets, if Greece withdrawing from the euro zone, shock will larger - Weakening the ability of the private financial institutions Page | - The government's tight fiscal policy - There is no real solution to resolve the debt crisis, this effect can maintain long time - The slowing of the economy, as well as trade and investment Why should Asia care crisis of the European common currency area b Transactions between Asia and Europe Asia made a lot of trade with Europe European Union (a group of 27 countries that use the euro area) is the largest economy in the world, accounting for 27% of global GDP Meanwhile, the United States is 23% of global GDP Asia (excluding Japan and Australia, but including China and India) accounted for 18% of the GDP of the world economy Asian exports to reach $ 541 billion on the European Union in 2010 Europe accounted for 16% of direct exports of Asia before the transaction intra-Asian trade that ultimately supply the needs of European countries (eg South Korea exported the ingredients to Thailand and then exported to Europe) c The Return of the European financial market When you look at Asia's capital account, it is easy to see that the European common currency area is an important investor in Asia in recent years - both in terms of financial assets and direct investment The euro crisis events, the leader in Euro area interest capital in the form of liquid assets, the euro, and take profits wherever is possible, from all three factors, we can see that return to the financial markets in Asia, now seems to be happening d The impact of European’s debt crisis on Asian companies The impact of the euro zone’s debt crisis on Asian companies should be "managed" by the rise of the trade in the region and more dependent on the banking sector The first channel that the euro area’s crisis in Europe could impact to Asia is reducing demand for Asian’s exporting e Impact on trade Page | Ability of rising domestic demand instead of reducing the need for foreign markets is difference from countries It depends on the size of the country (or the importance of exporting) - Financial capacity - China has advantages in terms of size and capabilities - Singapore has a strong financial position, but the domestic market is too small - India has large market but weak financial viability - Philippines at a disadvantage in both scale and financial capacity With 20% of its which exports to the EU, China and India will be affected European growth slowdown (or even negative), European exports to the region goes down, the Asian’s exporters will be affected European also slowdown, export of China to European decline, Asian exports to China go down, Asian was affected f The greater impact However, some Asian companies were affected by the European crisis more than other companies In the field of consumer electronics, Japanese companies as Sony was affected more than others For the automotive industry, companies in both Japan and Korea will suffer some impact due to slower demand from Europe g Do the confidence crisis in Europe will spread to Asia? Among the Asian countries with relatively high debt burden, Japan, India, and Taiwan mainly loan of domestic lending and not have to endure the changes in the psychology of investors as the borrower from out side h The financial impacting Korea has large volume received, and rely base on loans from foreign banks It is very vulnerable to the European crisis deteriorate over the relatively high on FDI fees Also vulnerable to the European crisis deteriorate more Page | China has received large volumes, but depends very much on the national FDI There are not really the property of Asian banks directly affected by the Greek and Italian bonds: - Can European banks retreat: The sale of the bond and lead to reduced prices and in some countries to cut lending to banks in Asia - Psychology of pessimism: The global spread of stock price decrease - Re-balance portfolio from large investors, priority U.S.-dollar, Swiss-franc, yen-Japan How the European debt crisis affect to financial markets? When the debt crisis is going on in the direction of deterioration, the reaction of investors to bad news from Europe occurs quickly and the concept: sell anything which is dangerous, and buy bonds government in the largest countries and where have best financial Typically, European bank shares and the European market - worse than their global counterparts during the crisis happening in Europe The bond markets of countries was affected also performs poorly, because of increase in interest rates means that the price is reduced At the same time, the U.S government bond yields fell to a record low in history, investors called "flight to safety", they buy bonds of countries with good financial background When a crisis occurs, governments in the Eurozone will tighten the external investment, a number of policies on liberalization of capital flows in the last two decades may change, fiscal tightening policy the government make to slow down the growth of the economy as well as trade and investment Banking, insurance, or pension funds are increasing holdings of euro bonds (for reasons of "caution"), they will be less ability to invest to abroad Future capital flows from the euro area e to Asia will be less than in previous years and in fact is happening The European debt crisis will undermine the ability of the private financial institutions Some Asian countries such as Korea have received large volumes and rely heavily on loans from foreign banks, so when the European meet the financial crisis, the background of this country very vulnerable trade As European banks withdraw, they sell capital and bonds, stocks with negative psychological, this make price decrease The bank also cut move for the Asian bank loans Page | Why did bond yields rise in response to this crisis, and what does this function contains mean? - The affecting on global asset allocation a golden rule for the money Safety and security: money move from where there are risks to safety and ensure Taxes: Move money from high tax areas to low tax areas Investment: Money change from where investment opportunities limited to where we have a lot of opportunities Political and economic drive: Cash avoid areas of political and economic instability and searching the area with tons of money on long-term stability Certainty and resources: Move money from the uncertainty region as a treatment to areas where there is a higher level of reliability - as a long term treatment When the debt crisis makes government bonds and banks look less attractive, the institutional investors have a lot of cash but nowhere to invest Pension funds and insurance companies are desperately in looking the potential safe haven with a modest profit But some people believe that the the crisis created opportunities for people who can take risks b Find the profit Professional investors around the world currently manages more than 60 trillion euros, more than double the value they did 10 years ago This condition is known as "Investment emergency" occurs when the international financial market was on the crisis, and it is worth saying that the billionaire or the ambitious company was not affected as much as the investment who have the largest organization in the financial markets: wealth funds in Norway, or the Japanese’s insurance companies and pension funds in the U.S and Germany Most of these funds are managing billions USD in assets of small investors, and they did not want to risk a bit Instead, their goal is to invest the money, in the end they can pay a relatively large pensions or profits from a life insurance policy for their clients However, this usually only happens if the money is invested safely, meaning that only a few percent of profit Page | c Impact of the financial Asian • Asian Dollar may not be the right choice • Regional financial cooperation should follow the requirements of the current economy, the development of economic, trade and investment • Implementation of the regional financial cooperation rien, ADB • Development of the currency swap between the regional economy • Trade agreement in using the currency of each country • Open financial markets and between regions • Research the possibility of the establishment of regional monetary fund Does Faith Crisis of Europe has spread to Asia? As Credit analyst at Standard & Poor, Elena Okorotchenko: "In some Asian countries with relatively high debt burden, Japan, India, and Taiwan mainly domestic lending and not have to endure the changes in the psychology of investors as borrowers from external " Confidence of the Asian countries is positive, not negative before the crisis of the Eurozone countries by good growth prospects in other areas of the global economy such as the U.S and the continued growth of China as well as Japan's recovery Countries in Asia which have impressive growth as Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, they have domestic demand, domestic market increased to compensate for export to Europe decline in the time of recession Besides Asian always control their spending and always have plan financial reserves Apart from a few countries in Asia have the same dependence on the European market, the export market, bank loans, FDI has been affected by the recession and the crisis of Europe However, the effects at low levels can not create a crisis line, crisis of confidence, as happened in Europe in recent times - Affecting on Vietnam a Export difficulty pulling GDP down 1.7% The European debt crisis led to a series of corollary: speed of world economic recovery slowly, particularly the eurozone will see unemployment and high Page | inflation, devaluation of the Euro, GDP growth declined, make real income and consumption goods imports fell sharply In this regard, a number of the view that cheap goods are the advantages of Vietnam, so that the debt crisis will help driving people in Europe move from the high and intermediate goods to goods which was made in Vietnam However, the data calculated from the model estimates show that European debt crisis will have a negative impact on export and GDP growth in Vietnam, with a decline of about 1.7% GDP in 2010, the third highest after China (2.8%) and the UK (1.9%) So, if there is no timely response policies to support exporting, the medium-term prospects for Vietnam's exporting will face many difficulties b High interest rates, business losses much For fear of the negative impact from the debt crisis, many central banks estimate the developed countries has raised over historical low floor interest rate in order to stimulate economic recovery and inflation accepttion in certain extent Basic rate approaching 0% in most countries: the FED (U.S.): 0.25%; ECB (EU): 1%; BOE (UK): 0.5%; Japan 0.1% By contrast, in Vietnam, the deposit rates and lending rates was remained highly Enterprises have to borrow capital at interest rates about 14-16%/year with short term and about 14.5 to 17%/year for the medium term and long term If inflation estimate for 2010 is less than 10%, the business must meet the rate of return on 24-27%, is higher than the rate of return on average equity of the sector in 2009 (about 20%) c FDI is decline European debt crisis could create two completely opposite effects on global FDI flows In the countries with the level of development equivalent to the EU will get benefit from FDI will move from Europe to these countries when investors want to avoid corporate income tax which the tends increase higher in the European countries Conversely, countries with low levels of development as Vietnam is absolutely no benefit from the capital of FDI from Europe due to the gap in the level of Page | technology, while capital flows from the European investment in these countries declined due to the debt crisis d Gold price explosion investment capital Investors around the world are looking for gold as a safe haven in danger of European debt crisis on a spread, it make the price of gold in recent years rose sharply, to over $1,300/ounce This reflects the need for more secure than paper currency, after the many individuals and organizations in Europe, Asia scrambling to buy gold, platinum and silver The gold price rose along with the growing trend of the dollar is rare Likely to increase to a new record in the near future and make a complete separation between the price of gold and other property assets This will negatively impact the investment on the world and in Vietnam by a large percentage of gold in the portfolio of the organization, also means that other categories such as stocks and bonds will be significantly reduced Thus, the indirect investment flows become more limited e Rredit risk Sure (CDS) tended to increase The Greek’s problems are making investors around the world become more cautious with other countries with similar problems: warning figures include: - Too much debt, expressed in the debt-to-GDP ratio is high - Excessive spending, reflected in the large budget deficit to GDP - The growth rate of GDP is decline As a result, Vietnam with high debt ratio, chronic budget deficits are international financial institutions classified in the high-risk items, the CDS is 263, ranking just above Greece (321) and Iceland ( 466) This would be a huge obstacle in attracting portfolio capital flows, foreign direct lending You said: "Asian dollar may not be the right choice"? From things has been learned and witnessed in recent times of the economy in the European common currency , in my opinion, we should not follow the trail vehicle of European countries to form a block similar in Asia, "Asian dollar may not be the right choice." Page | The nature of the economies in Asia have different starting points, extremelydifferent scale developement, not close and not same as Europe In Asia, there are two countries with huge economies are China and Japan, range in 2nd, 3rd on the world, a single currency "Asian dollar" unable to represent for all countries with different levels of development, with institutions from political to the economy, even marketplace practices also at very difference levels, this is not possible Experts said that, if obstacles transaction amount of money in the economy, the central bank of a country that can be used to solve this by regulating the supply and demand of currency, when the countries supply all together on one currency, the ability of cash flow as a result will no longer is the optimal choice Greek, when in crisis, with the weak economy and be bound by the rules of the Euro Zone, it can not reduce its value of money, can not be converted from external financial and can not reduce unemployment by regional labor migration in the European Union, can not balance its debt by printing more money Therefore, Asia should not be a Asian dollar, instead we should cooperate regional financial which follow the requirements of the current economy, the development of economic and trade and investment, implementation of financial cooperation regional development, development of the currency swap between the regional economy, trade agreements in using currency of each country used in the purchase and sale transaction open financial markets and capital between the regions Conclusion With the research and explain the problem in the research report: I've got a lot of information, explain the negative impact of the crisis from the European Economic Area to investment activities, in Asia in general and Vietnam in particular has withdrawn valuable experience in the analysis forecast, operating their businesses to self-advocacy, to stand firmly when the market fall in crisis Understand the flow of money in the international financial markets, monetary management and the exchange rate risk in international financial transactions and good financial management to invest in the international environment Through this course, I would like to thank Lecturer: Dr Nguyen Hoang Giang about the knowledge of international corporate finance and rewarding experience that he has communicated Page | 10 Through the above analysis, it shows how is the European crisis affecting countries in the world With the Southeast Asian countries, domestic consumer demand and reconstruction operations that can be leveraged for the economy The recovery in Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia will promote economic subvector Most governments in Southeast ready to loosen monetary and provide fiscal stimulus if it needed With Vietnam, the need to change government policies appropriate economic development in the next years to be able to get rid of the current financial crisis is impacting Vietnam Reference Document: - Http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt - "Global Financial Stability Report" report on global economic stability of the international monetary fund IMF - Http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves Page | 11