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Theory of Change & Application of the Results Based Management approach in Program Design, Monitoring and Evaluation By Nguyen Quoc Phong Hanoi, July 08, 2016 Contents Theory of Change (TOC) • • • • • What is a TOC? Why we need a TOC? How to create a TOC? principles of TOC What's the Difference Between a TOC and a Logic Model? Results based management (RBM) • • • • What is a RBM? Why we need a RBM? principles of RBM How to a RBM? What is a TOC? A hypothesized series of changes that are expected to occur in a given context as the result of specific actions The TOC makes explicit how a program/activity design team thinks outputs from their interventions will interact with other concurrent interventions and contextual conditions to stimulate or enable a series of outcomes that will ultimately lead to the achievement of desired objectives TOC Elements Context for the initiative Diagram and narrative summary Long-term change TOC ELEMENTS Assumptions Process of change Why we need a TOC? • To develop a causal pathway to identify necessary and sufficient outcomes needed to achieve a goal • To develop a roadmap that shows how a set of actions would help achieve a goal • To identify and highlight interventions and assumptions that are critical to produce an outcome • To identify critical areas addressed by external actors and how the project will link to them How to create TOC? Identify the long term goal Build the outcome map to identify the preconditions necessary to achieve that goal Identify the interventions that your initiative will perform to create these preconditions Develop indicators for each outcome that will be used to assess the performance of the interventions Write a narrative that can be used to summarize the various moving parts in your theory TOC Conceptual Model Project Level Goal Purpose Level Outcome Sub-Purpose Outcome Purpose Level Outcome Purpose Level Outcome Sub-Purpose Outcome Sub-Purpose Outcome Immediate Outcome Immediate Outcome Output Output Output Immediate Outcome Output Pathways of Change Immediate Outcome Output principles of TOC Focus on progress Prioritise leaning Be locally led Think compass not map What's the Difference Between a TOC and a Logic Model? TOC Recaps • • • • Strategic planning: TOC helps organisations practically to map the change process and its expected outcomes and facilitates project implementation Monitoring and evaluation: TOCs articulate expected processes and outcomes that can be reviewed over time Description: TOC allows organisations to communicate their chosen change process to internal and external partners Learning: TOC helps people to clarify and develop the theory behind their organisation or programme What is a RBM?  RBM is a management approach and project Planning, Monitoring, Evaluation & Reporting tool aimed at to improve management effectiveness and accountability in achieving developmental results  RBM is focused on chain results: output, outcomes, and impact  RBM objectively measure how well results are being achieved and report on measures taken to improve them  It enable senior management and Project Management team to judge if work is going in the right direction, whether progress and success can be claimed, and how future efforts might be improved on the basis of ground realities and data  RBM is concerned with learning, risk management and accountability The RBM life-cycle approach What is Result What we want? Activities How? Inputs Outputs Outcomes Results Why? Impact Results chain Traditional M&E Vs RBM Traditional M&E Focuses on inputs & Activities and success is measured by status of results RBM Focuses on internal results and performance of organization in producing developmental results and positive changes in society Why we need a RBM? Improved focus on results instead of activities Improved transparency, quality & accountability Improved measurement of programme achievements (performance rather than utilization) Enhanced strategic focus It is a global trend: using results-based management to improve the efficiency of development program principles of RBM Define expected results first and activities later Foster the active participation of stakeholders Ensure that all stakeholders work towards achieving expected results Apprise your work critically and learn the lessons How to a RBM? (Application RBM in Program Design, Monitoring and Evaluation) Analyzing problems and determining their causes; Identifying measurable changes (results) to be achieved based on problem analysis; Designing strategies and activities that will lead to these changes (results); Balancing expected results with the resources available; Monitoring progress regularly and adjusting activities to ensure results are achieved; Evaluating, documenting and incorporating lessons learned into next planning phase; Reporting on the results achieved and their contribution to achieving goals How to depict the Results chain? RBM Recaps • RBM are good and useful techniques but it won’t work itself and not sufficient to achieve results • RBM depends on the organization's ability to create a management culture that is focused on results • Manage change in your organization And, most of all, learn through our work and reivise our theory with every lesson Q&A References • What is Theory of Change http://www.theoryofchange.org/ • Fundamentals of Theory of Change http://www.actknowledge.org • Understanding theory of change in international development: http://www.theoryofchange.org/wpcontent/uploads/toco_library/pdf/UNDERSTANDINGTHEORYOFChan geSteinValtersPN.pdf • Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in international development: http://r4d.dfid.gov.uk/pdf/outputs/mis_spc/DFID_ToC_Review_VogelV 7.pdf • Results based management handbook, UNDP, October 2011 • Presentation of Barbara Reed & Dan Houston from USAID, October 2014 • Presentation of Mr Fida Karim from IDARA, August 2015