Đánh giá khả năng dự báo hạn mùa của một số mô hình khí hậu khu vực cho việt nam

ĐẠI HỌC QUỐC GIA HÀ NỘI TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KHOA HỌC TỰ NHIÊN - T T ĐÁNH GIÁ KHẢ NĂNG DỰ BÁO HẠN MÙA CỦA MỘT SỐ MÔ HÌNH KHÍ HẬU KHU VỰC CHO VIỆT NAM LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ KHOA HỌC Hà Nội – 2015 ĐẠI HỌC QUỐC GIA HÀ NỘI TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KHOA HỌC TỰ NHIÊN - T T ĐÁNH GIÁ KHẢ NĂNG DỰ BÁO HẠN MÙA CỦA MỘT SỐ MÔ HÌNH KHÍ HẬU KHU VỰC CHO VIỆT NAM Chuyên ngành: K t n k ậu Mã số: 61.44.87 LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ KHOA HỌC NGƯỜI HƯỚNG DẪN KHOA HỌC: TS V T n H n Hà Nội - 2015 LỜI C M N T i xin ày t l n T n H n n i n n u t T i ộm nK n v n n n i lời m n n n i ri n un n t ã i p i tron t ời i n qu Cuối n n luận v n n t àn t y vi n t n n t i ời t n ã lu n n ộ tron K o K n mon muốn n t n t o i u ki n t uận l i Trun t m T n tin D li u k tới i i p i n luận v n n i n ời t y ã tận t m n i t t n n xin t i t n s u sắ tới GS TS P n V n T n TS V t m n n t yv n ã i mon muốn n n ộn vi n i p t n T t i n t y v n H i oàn t àn luận n n n i p tron tl n i p i lời m n k ắ p vi n n t àn k k n t k t qu tốt n t L T T n M C C NG i DANH M C DANH M C H NH NH ii DANH M C C C K HI U VI T TẮT iv MỞ Đ U CHƯ NG TỔNG QUAN 1 K i qu t un v o t ời ti t ok ậu 1.1.1 Khát quát chung 1.1.2 C p 1.1.3 C n p p m n Tổn qu n n 1.2.1 Tr n t ok ok i n u n ậu ậu i s n p ẩm o m 13 iới 13 1.2.2 Tron n 17 13Đ n i s n p ẩm 1.3.1 M o 18 ý n 1.3.2 C ĩ n uy n lý un vi n o ài to n i s n p ẩm n i tl o 18 n s n p ẩm o 20 CHƯ NG PHƯ NG PH P MÔ H NH VÀ SỐ LI U 21 21P n p p 22M n n i ok o m 21 ậu k u v o Vi t N m 30 2.2.1 Mô hình RegCM 4.2 30 2.2.2 Mô hình clWRF (Climate Weather Research and Forecasting) 35 Số li u x lý số li u 38 CHƯ NG K T QU 41 N i t ộ trun 3.1.1 T n 41 n qu n 41 3.1.2 S i số trun 3.1.3 C số n 46 n 3.1.4 P n ố t n su t 32N i t ộ 3.2.1 T op 51 o n t Tx 52 n qu n 52 3.2.2 S i số trun 3.2.3 C i t ốn k 49 số n 55 n 3.2.4 P n ố t n su t i t ốn k 57 op 59 3 N i t ộ t p n t n ày 59 3.3.1 T n qu n 59 3.3.2 S i số trun 3.3.3 C số n 64 n 3.3.4 P n ố t n su t 34L n m i t ốn k 66 op 67 68 K T LUẬN 73 TÀI LI U THAM KH O 75 PH L C 81 DANH M C BẢNG n 11 Đ n n 21 i k t qu o Finley (1884) 14 n t ốn k n ẫu n i n 24 n 22 D n s tr m k t n 39 n C số t ốn k ối với n i t ộ trun n t n m n R CM WRF 50 n 32 n p n ố t n su t n 33 n số n i t ốn k m n R CM WRF o n i t ộ o n t t n 58 n 34 n s i số t ốn k m n R CM WRF o n i t ộ t p n t t n 67 n P n ố t n su t R CM với n op o T2m 51 op o l n m n ày t n v n m n o t n 69 n P n ố x su t o t o p l n m n ày m n WRF với n o t n 70 n P n ố x su t 11 v n với n o t o p l n m n ày m n R CM t n o t n 70 n P n ố x su t v n N1 với n o t o p l n m n ày m n R CM t n o t n 71 n 39 n m số n i t ốn k m n R CM WRF o tổn l n t n 72 i DANH M C HÌNH ẢNH Hn 21 M p n to n H n 2 Qui tr n H n Mi n t n Hn 24 P nv n k t i m 21 o 35 om n ok ậu k u v ậu Vi t N m N u n: k 37 ậu Vi t N m 40 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n R CM t n 12 t tr n xuốn ới với n o3 t n o k u v Vi t N m 42 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n R CM t n v n N1 với n o t n t n v n N3 với n o t n 43 H n 3 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n WRF o t n 12 o k u v Vi t N m n o3 t n 44 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n WRF o t n 12 o k u v Vi t N m n o6 t n 45 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n WRF ot n 6v n t n v n N3 với n o3 t n 45 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ T2mt t m n WRF o t n v n N2 t n v n t n v n N3 với n o t n 46 H n Đ t s i số trun n t n T2m t m n R CM WRF với n o t n 47 H n S i số trun n t n T2m t m n R CM WRF với n o6 t n 48 H n Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ o n t n ày Tx t m n R CM ot n o v n N1 N2 t n n với n o t n 53 Hn 31 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ o n t n ày Tx t m n WRF ot n o v n N2 t n v n N1 t n v n N3 với n o t n 53 H n 11 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ o n t n ày Tx t m n WRF ot n o v n t n n với n o t n 54 H n 12 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ o n t n ày Tx t m n WRF ot n o v n t n v n t n v n N1 t n v n N3 với n o t n 54 ii H n 13 S i số trun WRF với n n n i t ộ o n t trun n t n m n R CM o t n 55 H n 14 S i số trun n n i t ộ o n t trun n t n m n R CM WRF 56 H n 15 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ t p n t n ày Tn t m n R CM o t n o v n N2 t n v n với n o t n 60 H n 16 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ t p n t n ày Tn t m n R CM o t n 12 o v n t n v n N3 với n o t n 61 H n 17 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ t p n t n ày Tn t m n WRF o t n o v n N2 t n 11 v n t n 11 v n t n v n N3 với n o t n 62 H n 18 Đ t t i m i u i n mối t n qu n i o qu n trắ n i t ộ t p n t n ày Tn t m n WRF ot n ov n t n v n N2 t n v n N1 t n 12 v n N3 với n o6t n 63 H n 19 S i số trun WRF với n n t n n i t ộ t p n t n ày m n R CM o t n 64 Hn 32 n t n n i t ộ t p n t n ày m n R CM o t n 65 S i số trun WRF với n iii DANH M C CÁC KÍ HIỆU VI T TẮT AFWA AGCM AOGCM B1 B2 B3 B4 BATS BoM CFS CGCM CHLB CN ECMWF ETA Fcs GCM HRM JMA KHTN KTTV MM5 N1 N2 N3 NAM/SAM NCAR NCEP Obs PDO PNA RCM RegCM REMO SLP SST C k t n k n qu n M n oàn l u un k quy n M n k ậu k t p oàn l u un k quy n i n V n k ậu T y ắ V n k ậu Đ n ắ V n k ậu Đ n n ắ ộ V n k ậu ắ Trun ộ S t n t sin quy n-k quy n C qu n K t n Austr li H t ốn ok ậu NCEP T NCEP Clim t For System) M n k ậu toàn u p Coupl Glo l Clim t Mo l Cộn li n n C n n Trun t m ok t n nv C u u M n o t ời ti t p i t y tĩn D o For st M n k ậu toàn u Glo l lim te models) M n k uv ộ p n i i o Hi -resolution Regional Model) Tổ k t n N ật n K o t n i n K t n t yv n M n k t n ộn l qui m v (Mesoscale Meteorological Model) V n k ậu N m Trun ộ V n k ậu T y N uy n V n k ậu N m ộ N i u ộn ắ N m n u T Nort rn n Sout rn hemisphere Annular Modes) Trun t m Quố i n i n u k quy n Trung tâm o m tr ờn Quố i N tion l C nt r or Environmental Prediction) Qu n trắ O s rv (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Pacific/North American M n k uv M n k ậu k u v R ion l Clim t Mo l M n k uv T -Regional-Model) K p m t i n Sea Level Pressure) N i t ộ m t n i n 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and Correia Leung, J (2012), Comparison of dynamically and statistically downscaled seasonal climate forecasts for the cold season over the United States Journ l o op ysi l r s r số Vol 117... climate simulation (1971–2000), Climate Dynamics Vol 28 (7-8), pp 759-780 41 IPCC Climate Change (2007), The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press, pp 996 42 Jones P.D và Parker D.E New M., Martin S., Rigor I.G (1999), Surface air temperature and its variations over the last 150 years, Reviews of Geophysic Vol 37, pp 173-199 43 Kanamitsu M và H Kanamaru (2007), Fifty-seven year reanalysis... 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