PHƯƠNG PHÁP TIẾP CẬN CẤU TRÚC VỐN TỐI ƯU - TRƯỜNG HỢP CÁC DOANH NGHIỆP NGÀNH THỦY SẢN NIÊM YẾT TRÊN THỊ TRƯỜNG CHỨNG KHOÁN VIỆT NAM.PDF

- T 60340201 -o0o - -o0o - 2011 Xin t , 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.2 Nghi 12 3.1 20 3.2 24 3.2.1 24 3.2.2 25 3.2.2.1 h 26 3.2.2.2 29 3.2.2.3 31 3.2.3 31 4.1 33 4.2 Nam 38 4.3 43 5.1 50 5.2 51 2.1 3.1 3.2 2009 2011 4.1 4.2 Z trung - 2011 4.3 4.4 2009 4.5 2009 2.1 -1990 3.1 4.1 4.2 = 2,99 2011 2011 2011 doanh ngh ? - (x*) , -Trang 1- -Trang 2- 1.1 DP Nam, n , -Trang 3- H (VHC), i (L 4.2 2011 2009 2010 2011 T s T s n s h u n ch 0,90 0,99 1,10 T s t s h u n ch 2,21 2,42 2,68 3,30 2,56 2,83 Kh -Trang 42- cho 2,99 ao, 4.3 doan g , -Trang 43- (x* = x1) Tre (ABT), Z - - i -Trang 44- C * = x0) , tr inh doanh -Trang 45- (r*D e - n - -Trang 46- - c -Trang 47- -Trang 48- -Trang 49- 5.1 hau Thu t Nam 2/22 1,8, , nguy , -Trang 50- ,c V 5.2 au: r*D re r*D re -Trang 51- ************************** -Trang 52- T www.vasep.com.vn www.cophieu68.com www.cafef.vn - 2007 - 2008 2003 Andrea Moro, Mike Lucas, Prof Uwe Grimm, Edo Grassi, Financing SMES: a Model for Optimising the Capital Structure, 17th Annual Global Finance Conference, Poznan June 27th 30th 2010 Asawath Damodaran, Investment valuation, Second Edition Jan Susisky, Applicability of bankruptcy Models at Agricultural Companies, March 2011 John C Gardner, Carl B McGowan Jr., Susan E Moeller, Using Microsoft Corporation to Demonstrate the Optimal Capital Strucure Trade-off Theory, Journal of economics and Finace education Winter 2010 Jules H van Binsbergen, John R Graham, and Jie Yang, Optimal Capital Structure, April 2011, www.papers.ssrn.com Meziane Lasfer, Optimizing the Capital Structure: Finding the right balance between Debt and Equity, www qfinance.com Nicolaos Gerantonis, Konstantinos Vergos, Apotolos G Christopoulos, Can Altman Z-score Models predict Business Failures in Greece, Research Journal of International Studies Issued 12, October 2009 ObohSankay Collins, Isa EnvuluFilibus, Adekoya Adeleke Clement, Corporate Capital Structure and Corporate Market Value: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria, International Journal of Economics and Finance; Vol 4, No 12, 2012 Pablo Fernandez, Optimal capital structure: Problems with the Harvard and Damodaran approaches, Research Paper No 454 January 2002, www.papers.ssrn.com 10 Suyash N.Bhatt, Capital structure and turnaround Z-score Models, Asian Journal of Research in Business Economics and Management Volume Issued 7, July 2012 PH L C 1: H S Ch tiêu Giá tr th tr ng v n ch s h u (P) Mã CK BLF GFC NGC SJ1 AAM ABT ACL AGD AGF ANV ATA AVF CMX FBT FMC HVG ICF MPC TS4 VHC VNH VTF TB ngành 2009 61,000 61,000 25,200 76,852 364,011 589,659 249,300 240,000 385,779 1,141,527 275,000 224,000 174,751 161,090 115,568 3,180,000 185,702 2,317,000 334,581 1,758,672 69,801 252,357 12,262,650 2010 49,000 80,800 15,480 81,900 244,748 585,110 295,900 223,200 302,194 925,031 278,000 504,000 174,751 110,397 93,177 1,555,466 120,386 2,093,000 254,150 1,359,900 69,801 252,357 9,668,746 2011 17,500 84,800 8,160 92,050 203,820 378,190 316,475 334,797 275,189 485,477 75,600 211,500 66,106 51,819 71,508 1,301,236 61,474 1,022,000 95,450 1,305,045 26,476 335,274 6,819,946 N DÀI H N CÁC DOANH NGHI P TH Y S N NIÊM Y T N ng n h n không th 2009 35,836 207,000 5,053 27,297 51,899 60,089 94,900 53,038 119,668 190,632 40,924 209,764 89,366 83,773 20,531 541,082 52,368 227,891 14,037 153,523 5,364 223,592 2,507,627 ng xuyên (SL) 2010 39,697 243,085 11,461 29,120 33,515 96,002 68,296 70,872 150,912 331,016 88,958 201,796 106,935 43,032 29,937 1,265,269 37,874 167,689 67,673 456,444 6,742 224,261 3,770,586 2011 62,748 314,926 17,323 29,823 38,204 58,831 96,254 99,763 237,594 431,857 41,188 226,006 69,599 117,860 35,364 1,773,500 34,775 1,257,346 111,579 413,295 17,940 133,324 5,619,099 T ng tài s n (A) 2009 338,282 404,506 58,426 106,426 363,934 537,004 625,697 275,807 1,208,019 2,046,548 497,458 1,089,089 761,514 492,791 623,406 3,435,677 367,195 1,989,289 366,748 1,218,863 138,737 641,256 17,586,672 2010 375,915 677,535 88,005 111,290 331,335 601,924 738,269 441,692 1,354,628 1,902,100 736,816 1,371,253 1,035,217 265,278 501,975 4,038,933 377,286 2,927,736 549,277 1,609,386 154,826 880,748 21,071,424 Trong ó: P = s l ng c phi u ang l u hành * giá óng c a t i ngày 31/12 ho c ngày g n nh t a = (1,2 V n l u ng + 1,4 L i nhu n gi l i + 3,3 L i nhu n tr c thu lãi vay + 0,999 doanh s ) / T ng tài s n x* nghi m c a ph ng trình Z = 0,64P/(SL+Ax) + a = 2,99 Ngu n: Báo cáo tài doanh nghi p ngành th y s n niêm y t 2009, 2010 2011 www.cafef.vn (Giá óng c a t i ngày 31/12 ho c ngày g n nh t) CH S Z = 2,99 Tham s a 2011 423,347 780,096 110,441 154,833 329,976 478,110 804,067 680,419 1,716,935 2,164,966 688,473 1,890,918 895,693 245,895 778,051 4,370,033 397,901 5,063,915 707,229 2,153,874 172,604 861,937 25,869,713 2009 1.73 2.95 3.15 2.53 2.69 2.41 2.36 2.22 1.81 1.33 2.18 2.20 2.82 1.19 2.66 2.11 2.12 2.61 1.56 3.32 1.65 3.50 2.26 2010 2.08 2.46 2.13 2.44 2.95 2.38 2.79 2.11 2.07 1.47 2.29 2.37 2.60 0.38 4.14 1.49 1.70 3.31 1.49 2.97 1.32 3.46 2.32 H s n dài h n (x*) 2011 1.82 2.60 2.94 2.40 3.73 3.02 3.13 2.53 2.57 1.61 2.29 2.20 2.50 (0.23) 3.72 2.15 1.72 2.79 1.76 3.36 1.35 5.20 2.57 2009 -1% 185% -179% 74% 201% 109% 25% 53% 7% 12% 35% -3% 74% -5% 33% 52% 23% 184% 37% -289% 20% -84% 47% 2010 -1% -21% 0% 59% 1261% 86% 121% 21% 4% 3% 22% 23% 18% -6% -16% -15% 6% -151% 7% 2679% 13% -65% 26% 2011 -13% -22% 73% 46% -65% -1854% -196% 53% 10% -10% 4% -3% 2% -44% -13% -18% -1% 41% -9% -124% -4% -27% 19% PH L C 2: H S N DÀI H N VÀ CH S Z TH C T C A CÁC DOANH NGHI P TH Y S N NIÊM Y T Ch tiêu Mã CK BLF GFC NGC SJ1 AAM ABT ACL AGD AGF ANV ATA AVF CMX FBT FMC HVG ICF MPC TS4 VHC VNH VTF TB ngành H s n dài h n 2009 2010 68% 69% 2011 66% 27% 64% 5% 2% 8% 57% 36% 40% 24% 66% 64% 72% 55% 73% 36% 35% 41% 49% 37% 36% 19% 41% 49% 69% 22% 1% 6% 51% 48% 48% 16% 71% 67% 74% 14% 73% 19% 48% 50% 50% 27% 38% 33% 41% 51% 69% 3% 2% 10% 60% 49% 43% 12% 67% 59% 75% 51% 61% 28% 42% 57% 44% 17% 40% 37% 41% (*) Z = 0,64P/(SL+Ax) + a V i x: h s n dài h n th c t , tham s l i Ch s Z (*) 2009 2010 2011 1.87 3.11 3.53 4.03 6.60 6.02 2.71 3.22 2.22 2.42 2.66 2.35 2.99 1.48 2.82 3.26 2.77 4.02 2.67 5.19 2.47 3.97 3.07 1.85 2.68 2.99 3.33 6.78 5.84 3.53 3.03 2.73 2.01 2.38 2.29 2.56 (0.01) 3.80 2.48 1.89 2.96 1.89 4.20 1.56 5.71 2.84 c tính 2.19 2.55 2.27 4.08 6.90 4.76 3.17 2.61 2.34 2.53 2.59 2.69 2.73 0.77 4.32 1.90 2.09 4.03 2.02 4.16 1.96 3.75 2.82 Ph l c ... trung - 2011 4.3 4.4 2009 4.5 2009 2.1 -1 990 3.1 4.1 4.2 = 2,99 2011 2011 2011 doanh ngh ? - (x*) , -Trang 1- -Trang 2- 1.1 DP Nam, n , -Trang 3- 1.2 cho - - Nam 1.3 P 22 N 1.4 - , u - T -Trang... - 2011 ,c B 2= Z > 1,8 a -Trang 3 5- 2011) VNI- * = x0 * * -Trang 3 6- * * 3: f3(x) = TD + V = T.A.x + V max 4.3 H 3 - - 19% (2011) -Trang 3 7- x* 4.2 -. .. - -Trang 3 8- -C 4.4 2009 2011 ) -Trang 3 9- Trong p c 12%)) - 50% n -Trang 4 0- - 4.5 2009 2011 ) -Trang 4 1- H (VHC), i (L 4.2 2011 2009 2010 2011 T s