Các nhân tố tác động đến thoát nghèo trường hợp tại xã Cẩm Sơn - Cai Lậy - Tiền Giang 2007- 2013 Luận văn thạc sĩ 2014

10 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 15 18 18 18 20 20 22 22 24 25 26 28 28 29 30 30 31 31 31 33 34 35 35 39 48 51 52 59 59 61 64 Logistic regression Number of obs LR chi2(20) Prob > chi2 Pseudo R2 Log likelihood = -21.101673 Y Coef DLTN01_1_D DLTN01_2_D DLTN01_3_D DLTN01_4_D DLTN01_5_D DLTN01_6_D TCTD TDRR01 VXH01_D VXH02 VXH04_1_D VXH05_D TCTT02 TCTT03_TG TN_PNN MHLA AN_NHAU HON_NHAN TUOI BENH_TAT _cons 1.497212 3.980955 4.764048 -1.094267 3.971609 -2.780077 2.733128 -.022575 -.8056547 5363399 1.344707 4.591093 5.96624 5963386 0364815 1.873478 4020929 5.165761 1.020244 -14.13173 -28.73994 Std Err 1.713293 1.689576 2.358497 1.253903 1.957149 1.774957 1.418493 2.150756 1.51689 2300311 1.792899 2.047618 2.182712 4578294 0325274 1.525287 5393141 2.150893 4805387 5.367482 9.951017 z 0.87 2.36 2.02 -0.87 2.03 -1.57 1.93 -0.01 -0.53 2.33 0.75 2.24 2.73 1.30 1.12 1.23 0.75 2.40 2.12 -2.63 -2.89 P>|z| 0.382 0.018 0.043 0.383 0.042 0.117 0.054 0.992 0.595 0.020 0.453 0.025 0.006 0.193 0.262 0.219 0.456 0.016 0.034 0.008 0.004 Note: failures and successes completely determined = = = = 87 75.06 0.0000 0.6401 [95% Conf Interval] -1.86078 6694473 1414789 -3.551871 1356674 -6.25893 -.0470671 -4.23798 -3.778704 0854873 -2.169309 5778356 1.688204 -.3009906 -.0272711 -1.116029 -.6549434 9500887 0784057 -24.6518 -48.24357 4.855204 7.292463 9.386617 1.363337 7.807551 698775 5.513324 4.19283 2.167395 9871926 4.858724 8.604349 10.24428 1.493668 100234 4.862986 1.459129 9.381434 1.962083 -3.611657 -9.2363 mfx Marginal effects after logit y = Pr(Y) (predict) = 76791244 variable DLTN~1_D* DLTN~2_D* DLTN~3_D* DLTN~4_D* DLTN~5_D* DLTN~6_D* TCTD* TDRR01* VXH01_D* VXH02 VXH~_1_D* VXH05_D* TCTT02* TCTT03~G TN_PNN MHLA* AN_NHAU HON_NHAN* TUOI BENH_TAT* dy/dx 245733 4056523 8089904 -.1874089 6947544 -.4868696 4200461 -.0040432 -.1241353 0955881 2842835 5442368 6223661 1062812 0065018 4157051 0716622 82224 1818309 -.9238542 Std Err .26196 15517 14515 20593 25102 29893 16789 3876 18418 03654 41422 18913 16853 09401 00498 34674 08537 168 07573 06383 z 0.94 2.61 5.57 -0.91 2.77 -1.63 2.50 -0.01 -0.67 2.62 0.69 2.88 3.69 1.13 1.31 1.20 0.84 4.89 2.40 -14.47 P>|z| [ 95% C.I 0.348 0.009 0.000 0.363 0.006 0.103 0.012 0.992 0.500 0.009 0.493 0.004 0.000 0.258 0.191 0.231 0.401 0.000 0.016 0.000 -.267698 759164 101533 709772 524492 1.09349 -.59102 216203 202767 1.18674 -1.07277 099027 090979 749113 -.763729 755642 -.485129 236859 023972 167204 -.52758 1.09615 173552 914922 292049 952684 -.077972 290535 -.003253 016257 -.263893 1.0953 -.095655 23898 492974 1.15151 033403 330259 -1.04895 -.798756 (*) dy/dx is for discrete change of dummy variable from to estat gof Logistic model for Y, goodness-of-fit test number of observations number of covariate patterns Pearson chi2(66) Prob > chi2 = = = = 87 87 67.33 0.4314 ] X 402299 218391 873563 563218 574713 482759 402299 091954 816092 7.71264 816092 310345 287356 4.70115 45.0575 873563 4.11494 574713 5.64368 091954 estat gof, group(10) Logistic model for Y, goodness-of-fit test (Table collapsed on quantiles of estimated probabilities) number of observations number of groups Hosmer-Lemeshow chi2(8) Prob > chi2 = = = = 87 10 3.92 0.8639 fitstat Measures of Fit for logit of Y Log-Lik Intercept Only: D(66): McFadden's R2: Maximum Likelihood R2: McKelvey and Zavoina's R2: Variance of y*: Count R2: AIC: BIC: -58.632 42.203 0.640 0.578 0.952 68.047 0.862 0.968 -252.547 Log-Lik Full Model: LR(20): Prob > LR: McFadden's Adj R2: Cragg & Uhler's R2: Efron's R2: Variance of error: Adj Count R2: AIC*n: BIC': -21.102 75.061 0.000 0.282 0.781 0.683 3.290 0.657 84.203 14.257 estat class Logistic model for Y True Classified D ~D Total + - 47 28 54 33 Total 52 35 87 Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= True D defined as Y != Sensitivity Specificity Positive predictive value Negative predictive value Pr( +| D) Pr( -|~D) Pr( D| +) Pr(~D| -) 90.38% 80.00% 87.04% 84.85% False False False False Pr( +|~D) Pr( -| D) Pr(~D| +) Pr( D| -) 20.00% 9.62% 12.96% 15.15% + + - rate rate rate rate for for for for true ~D true D classified + classified - Correctly classified 86.21% sum e Variable Obs Mean e 87 -.0453452 Std Dev .8836365 Min Max -6.355866 1.689568 vif Variable VIF 1/VIF VXH04_1_D VXH05_D TUOI VXH02 DLTN01_6_D HON_NHAN AN_NHAU TCTT03_TG DLTN01_1_D DLTN01_5_D TDRR01 DLTN01_4_D TCTT02 MHLA DLTN01_2_D BENH_TAT TN_PNN TCTD VXH01_D DLTN01_3_D 2.62 2.55 2.32 2.30 2.16 2.13 2.13 2.01 1.88 1.81 1.80 1.62 1.60 1.49 1.42 1.39 1.37 1.31 1.29 1.26 0.382048 0.391551 0.431056 0.434334 0.462265 0.469007 0.470235 0.496844 0.530910 0.552886 0.554039 0.617172 0.624760 0.670927 0.703373 0.719489 0.727501 0.761714 0.777299 0.790971 Mean VIF 1.82 ... 61 64 - - - 1 Nguy n Hồng B o, 2013 Nghèo m t cơng b ng 1534 201 183 290 - - - - - - - - - Thoát nghèo - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -