Slide research ideas and econometric models dự báo kinh tế và phân tích dữ liệu

Research Ideas and econometric models Nguyễn Hoàng Bảo Outline 1. A Logistic Regression Model of Drop out of High School 2. A Logistic Model of Rural–Urban Migration 3. Choice of domestic or foreign product 4. A Multinomial Logistic Regression Model of Determinants of Divorce 5. Who receives remittances 6. How to construct demand for a single good 7. Who smokes cigarettes 1. A Logistic Regression Model of Drop out of High School • Droup out of school is, of course, not occurred randomly. • There are many factors which might affect the problem of drop out prematurely. • Dependent variable: Drop out? (Y=1) • Independent variables: If the positive/negative sign of the specific explanatory variable means increase/decrease the probability of dropout and if the question mark of the specific explanatory variable means that there is no clear pattern. There are four groups of explanatory variables. Individual characteristics • Gender (?) • Age (+) • Intellectual Quality Index (IQ) (-) • Bad health/Malnutritional status (+) • Grade repetition (+) • Indulgence in playing (+) • Child work (+) • Married child (+) Family characteristics • Household income/expenditure (-) (b) • Agricultural land used (-) • Education of parents (-) • Tastes of education of parents, little parental concern (-) • Number of children (+) • Marital status of parents: living together, being divorced, being separated, being widowed (?) School characteristics • School fees charged (+)(c) • Distance to school (+) • Teacher educational level (-) • Teacher experience (-) • Teacher motivation (-) • Pedagogical techniques used (?) • Condition of school building (-) • Availability of learning materials (textbooks) (-) • Quality of learning materials (-) • Characteristics of head of school (?) • Hours and days that school is opened (-) • Number of pupils in the class, and/or teachers/students ratio, space for each pupils (proxy measurement of quality of schooling) (-) Regional characteristics • Urban/rural (-) • Kinh/ethnics (-) • Use/do not use Vietnamese language (-) • No demand for studying (+) • Hiện nay, hiện trạng đất nước thay đổi, nhưng với chính sách xã hội hóa giáo dục, liệu những mảnh đời bất hạnh vì bỏ học, có ai quan tâm không? Ngoài chúng ta ra còn ai nữa không? Chính quyền địa phương hả, hỏi họ thử coi, họ trả lời vấn đề này ra sao? 2. A Logistic Model of Rural–Urban Migration • [...]... and luxury good Material or spirit good Cultural or non–cultural values Standardized or unstandardized good 20 Rich/poor response to the demand For the common products, when income increases, the poor may consume more and the rich may consume less (rice) QD = a0 + a1Y + a2Y2 where QD is demand and Y is income per capita The expected sign of the coefficient a 1 is positive and a2 is negative 21 Demand... of demand with respect to its own price E = (%ΔQD)/ (%ΔP) If E=-0.2, when price increases 1%, demand decreases 0.2% 24 Elasticity of demand with respect to income E = (%ΔQD)/ (%ΔY) If E=0.6, when income per capita increases 1%, demand increases 0.6% If E=-0.2, when income per capita increases 1%, demand decreases 0.2% (the good is inferior ones) 25 Demand of rice with respect to its own price and income... (causality flows?) Regional effects (Ho Chi Minh, Hue, and Da Nang) Education spending per capita (+) Health spending per capita (+) Age of head of household (+) Per cent household of working age (-) Number of children (-) Urban (+) 6 How to construct demand for a single good Law of demand P QD (given income) P↑⇒ Q↓ P↓⇒ Q↑ Are there any exceptional cases? Q 17 Demand function (Q ) D • • • • • • • • • Price (-)... a 1 is positive and a2 is negative 21 Demand function (1) lnQD = a + bj(Pj/Pi) + … + bk(Pk/Pi) + c ln(Y/Pi) + other variables QD Pi is the demand of rice (quantity) is the price of rice Pj …Pk are the price of other products Y is the income per capita 22 Demand function (2) lnyi = a + bilnPi + cilny + di(lny)2 + ei(lnPi lny) + filn(Pindex) + gi other variables yi is spending on rice Pi is the price... Characteristics of product – Price and quality 4 A Logistic Regression Model of Determinants of Divorce • • • • • • • • • • • • Age Age gap Income Income gap Education Educational gap Religion Number of children Being single of relatives Marital status of parents Job characteristics (out of sight, out of mind) Social ties 5 Who receives remittances • Self–adjustment mechanism • Community and family spirit 5 Who... increases 1%, demand decreases 0.2% (the good is inferior ones) 25 Demand of rice with respect to its own price and income in Vietnam Elasticity of demand of rice with respect to price income Vietnam -0.35 0.16 Urban -0.45 -0.41 Rural -0.20 0.27 26 Elasticity of demand with respect to income in the US Product Movies Foreign Tourism Health insurance House application Office stationary Jewel Elasticity Product . measurement of quality of schooling) (-) Regional characteristics • Urban/rural (-) • Kinh/ ethnics (-) • Use/do not use Vietnamese language (-) • No demand for studying (+) • Hiện nay, hiện. characteristics • Household income/expenditure (-) (b) • Agricultural land used (-) • Education of parents (-) • Tastes of education of parents, little parental concern (-) • Number of children (+) • Marital. level (-) • Teacher experience (-) • Teacher motivation (-) • Pedagogical techniques used (?) • Condition of school building (-) • Availability of learning materials (textbooks) (-) • Quality