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p o s s i b l e t h x t r b c s c l\ro di$lrjcrs : r r c rol rcl)rcrcnr; ilc of lhc stnrc s s c h o o l
d i s r r i c r s o v c r r l l S c c o n d l h c s u r v e ) i n v o t v e d o r ) t r m x r h in d scicnci rc.chcrs.' t l t h c r t c r k c r dr.rNs i brord rcconrmcndirion f o r i l r c i c h c r s b:rsco o n r D Csun'cY s results
l n r d d n i o n ( h ( sperkcrs rccommcnclxrion r c t i c s on rhc assumDrion
r h a r r l r c r n o u n r of homcrvork assigoed r o s r u d e n t s j s $e oflt) possiblrreasor Ior rhe compirarive ic:rdemic performancc bcrwccn srudents in thc
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must ffsr rulc our all orhcr fcisibte cxptanalions for rhc disparjq il]
Finaly, dre survcy results a5 rcponed by.the spc:-kcr irc roo vaSuc ro'
suppolr any finn conclusion Tbe speaker cporu rhar Sxilee scudcnlsrcccive lowcr.Sndcs and rrc morc til{ely to repcat a schoot ycar rhcn }t2rlccsrudenls Yc( thc spcakcr docs nor indjca(e whcrhcr this fad lpplics toSadcc and M2rlce srudcnls Scncnlt) or jusr to marh and scicnce stuocnls
T h c p c d < c r ' s e c o d r m c n d a l i o n for aI hjgh school sixdenrs miShr b€dcfcnsiblc,in rhe formcr case bur not in t)c la(ct case
ln conclusion, rhc rccommendxrion tha( aI hjfh school srudcnLs bc1ssisncd honrcwork once pcr veek ar most is irdcfcnsibt€ bajcd on thccvidcncc- To sl.cngrhcn rJ)c orgumcnt, rti spcakcr musr sbow that thrrcponcd corr€hrion ir rhc ar€as of math ard scicncc is also found amongmost oticr academic subjccrs Thc sp€*cr musr dso rule out othd facorsrhrr mj8ht dcterminc.hc students,gmdcs and thcir Likclibood of rcpcaring a
s$denrs invoh,ed onh' math mcl scicncc sruclcnrs or all srudenrs
-ln rhjs.allumcnr, rhc spskcr toncludcs rharrFo6tthc citiz€ns havc
Tcccntiurvc]' of Forsvlhc cirizens ,sugScsring thar $ci.r carrn8 habirs nos,conJorm morc closciy io govemm.nr nurrirional rccommcndations than rhqdid tcn ycr$ ago Thc speakcr also points our thar sdcs of kiraq a subsbncckiown to !€ducc cholcsrc.ol havc incrc$ed fourfotd, whn€ salcs of sulir,'which fce of Forsl1hc s healltricsr cirizcns car regdllty havc bcc,dcclinjnS Tnis arSumenr is unpcrsuasile for sevcnt reasons
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A Ne$' P.esidcnt for the Ianc]' To)' Companl'
ln lhis mcmo, a mxnrlrtr at Frncl Tov ConP:rn\' rccomnlcnds rcplxcinSPrt S:rl!o, thc comprnJ's currcnr prcsidcnt s'ith Rosl winniogs, s4ro is
c u n c n t l t Presidcnl of Slrrli8lrt J e w e l n - T o s u p p o n l l r i s r t c o m m e n d i t i o o thc rDxDr!€r poinq' out thxl Fanc\"s profils hrvr dcciincd durinli rl)c hslthre€ quancrs undcr Prt s lcrdcrship whilc SlarlrCrt's profiE havc bccn
reltonsFjrsr thc managcr's rccommcndation relics Partll on the assumPt'onthir Pal was thc cause of Fancl' To,v s dcclijuns Profils- Howevcr, this need
is zlwa)'s thc mosr ptonlable one Or PerhaPs thc cosl of materials or libor
rll<iiS into account such Possibilil;cs, $c mlni8ct simpl-v cannot.easonabl)concludc tlat Pat is responsible for Fanq"s declining profits and tli!rcplacrnE Pir will thcrc[ore en],)]ncc ltnq s profits
Similarl)', thc managcr's rccommcndition assumcs lhat i! is Rosa whohas bc€n pliharii)' responsible for StxrliShfs profitabiliq' Howcvcr' tlcmaniS€r p.ovidcs no cvidence to 2lfirm this assutiption h is cntircllpossib)c that all icsclq' businesscs hav€ prospcrcd teccntl), rcS,rdlcss ofthc abilili€s of the mxna8ers Or perhaPs the costs of precious mctais andothcr materirls hxvc deciined in rccent ycars, thcrcb)'lcading to incrcficdprofi6 for Starlight Ilotcover, Perhnps Rosr has onl)'served as prcsid€nt or
mamgcr ca.nnoi dcfcnd thc conclusion that h is nosa s'ho is relPonslblc forsrarlit*rt s jncrcasinS prolirabilit-1'
Fi.ndly, thc manager's rccommendation lo replace Paa wit}l Rosa rcs!5
Rosz s cxpcricnceand skili in onc busitcss will transfer to thc o$cr Evcn ifS!2rlighfs incrcasing protrtbilry is attribuBblc to Rosx s lcadcrshiP, shc
hos' much experiens€ it the toy business is rcquired to successtully lcao
'sucn I comPily.
In conclusion, thc"argument is irnconvi.ncinf as n st,Jlds To strcn$hcn
''ir, tbe'm2neger rnust shoi'that Par, and not some othcr factor bcyond PafJ conEol, is lcsponsibLc for Farcy's dcclr.nin8 ProfiE Similatl)" thc rd2na8cr
r o b e n c r e l a l u r e t l r e a r g u m c n t , v c v o u l d n e c d m o r e i t l o r n a t i o n a b o u l how long Pat and Rosa bavc sen'cd as prcsidenls of their rcspcctir'c compmics zlrd vhar dlcir io.S-tergl t€as<l-!s Jor].eadilC rhcir rcsp€cnw companies Io profi L:rbilitl.
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Trang 6A Fitness-Gym Fianchise Opportunity
Lifr franchise, an irvesior \vilt crm a quick profir To suppon dris claim, l}rebrochure cires a varicry of slarislics abour *rc cuncnr popularit\, of ph-vsicalfitncss ind ofPowcr-UIi cyms in panicular Howevcr, carcful scmriry ofthjscvidcncc rcveals thar ir lcnds no crcdiblc suppon !o tlc ctaim
Or€ problem \vith the brochurc's claim irvolvcs i$ relirnce on t}lcbarc facl r}Iat rcacnu€ from lasr ycar's salcs of hcalrh books ?l1d maFxzinq
do oot all focus on wcjghdifiin8 or cvcn physical fitncssr ir js possiblc tlarv€rv few salcs werc of those thar do Bcsidcs, ir js cntire\, possiblc thar inprcvious yea.s, oLd sates wcrc cvcn hiShc! ard tha! sates arc acruallrdcdil1ing Either sccnario, iI rruc would scrvc to wcrkcn rhe brochurc,scl2ifi rarhcr rh]n suppon ir
lnd morc consuliers arc purch3sinS homc 8yrns lr is cnrircb' possiblc that
rh2r rbc numbcr of PoNcr-Lift mcmberships will dcclirc as a rcsulr Wir}rolrrulinS our L\is possibiliq, rhe brochurc cannot conYincc mc t})at a ncs,
?orvcr-lifr fi'anchisc would ba Dlofilrblc
third problcm wi*r rhe brochurc's clajm involvcs its reLiancc on rhcfact rhat 500 Pos€r,Lif! flfuchis€s arc noB' i, cxisrcncc tr is erlrkcb
thc nrrmbcr of compering gyms hri dso incrcascd ill rridem with thc8en€ml inrerest ir hcalth ,nd firness lvithoul addressing $js suppl)"and.demand issuc, tbc brochure caffor jusi4 i6 conclusion rhar a nes.Pos'cr-Lifi fnnchisc would be a sound invcslrncfll
ln conclusion t}c brochurc is inpcrsuasivc alir sraods To srfcngt})coits cl m t}lar a naw Powci.Un franchisc would bc profitablc, thc brochurc.hodd providc suongcr cvidcncc thar rhe gcne.al inrclcsr ir ph.vsical6rnc$,
tutur€ Thc brochu:c must also provide cvidcncc rhar home Syms arc norscrving as subsriNrcs for commcrcial gyms FiJulb !o bcrr€r cvaluarc *r€
?rgumcnt, 'wc would nced more ioform{ion abour thc cxrerr ro which tltc.fitrcss'gym mriker has becomc szrurf,lcd, nol oril b) Powcr-Lift fnnchisc5but bI compcting gl'ms as s'cll-
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Trang 8PART 6
i d c n l i f y i n g a n d $ e i g b i n g s u c l r : r l t c r n a t i v r s l h ( ; r u t h o r c : r n n o l d € f e n d lh cconclusion r)r1t votcrs should approvc thc cxprcssw:r) Projcc!
l n c o n c l u s i o n l h c ! r g u m c n l js u n c o n l i n c i n s a s iI s u n d s T o s t r c n g r l ) c n
jr, rhc author must provide slrong evidencc lhat rhc cxPrcsseal would hclp
mmuhcturers Thc nuthor musr also sbos'thal dre exPrcss\\':r] would infscr result in a nel influ.\ of vorkcrs vho would changc iobs bccausc of thcavailability of the exprcsswx\' Firdlt, to bcllcr c\aluxr€ the rr8umcnt, wcwould nced morc informrtion about possiblc ll(cmatilcs to rhe Propos:land wherher:rn!'such altcmativc &ouid bc morc cffccdve in Promoiing $c
h e a l $ o f L h c d o w n r o w n e c o n o m )
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Trang 10Faililgs of Gre:rt Achicvc.s
A J c i h e p c r s o n i l frili'rFs of Fre!r achicrcrs Scncmll! unimpo(:rnr
ihe shoncoming For cxample, poof acadcmic or job perfoimancc canpropcl a gi-fted enlrcprcn€ur ro sran a business, Nhich ulrimare\' becomcsthe dominant plrycr in irs irdusrD Or se.ious illness or inju.j' can spur rnathlclc on o a(ajn worid<lass sEndins in a panicular sporl
thxt is, a pcrsonal friling migh! bc r nccessarv ingred'enr o inree.^l pan olthc achicvcmcnr proc.ss ilself lor inslancc, a.risls md musiciais oflcnp.oducc ttrcir most crcative works during p€riods of dcpression, addictjon,
or other distr.sq irdccd, in anvork's Frcalncss oftcn li€s in how ii rcflccuand revca]s the ffdsfs own fiilir8s aod foibles And in thc rc.lms ofbusirc5!.lrd poUlics, nrscnsirivir), ro rhe buman cosls of success, whjch I considcr ro
b a pcrsonal failirg, ha5 brcd many gmnd 3chjcvcmcnrs HisroD'is rcplercs'i!h cx2mplcs-from thc use of -cxpendablc' slaves b] t}Ic ancicnrcmp€rors in rcalizin8 our sorld's grcarcjr monumenrs ro rhc guesrionablclabor praclices of Amcrica's grcat lale ninerccnrh,ccnrun indusEialisrs
lic ar lhc hca( of othcr, uninrended ones Considcr, for exxmple, r$omodcm Amedcan presidcnts: Nixon and Clinton N'xon s pannoia, ehichhislorians Scncrally agrcc was his fatrl flap, rcsuhcd in ihc Watergirescanclal-a warefihcd cvcnt ir Amcricx polirics, nd more rcccnd,r,Clitton s marilal indiscrctions 2nd subsequenr irnpexchment prompred 1nationai rcexamjnadon of the rcquisites tor lcgitinarc political lcadcrship.Vcrc thc personal failings of Nixon nnd Clinron lcss "imponxnt" thnn drcirrclLicvcmenu as sBresman md social eformer, rcspccrivcl) ? Pcrhips not, dmincdl)', sonc q?cs of parsqn2l failtags t c in impor(,Jlcc to tI.bdilidual s actiicvcmcnts lor cximpl€, lhc peoplc who wc considcr gr€:r
busrncss judgmen! Ye!, jn our hear6 and ininds._*ris son of faililrg onll
m) \'icw, parcntlv more jnpon1nr dlan a.y acN€vcmcnr Ior insancc, aor
a male spol1s hero h:rs Iound his nemc on a ncwspapcr's poiice b)o.rer aicrcommiftirg a violcnl crimc li mv vies', the imponancc ofrnt violenl crirn(ou8veichs thrr of trnr sooni rccord
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